Calvin Johnson overrated in redrafts (1 Viewer)

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article...2027/1049/rss14

Been in Detroit all my life, 36 years. I've seen more Lion football than I care to admit.....any Lion's fan deserves a little special place in heaven.

It's certainly possible that the Lions have something extremely special in Calvin Johnson. It has happened before in a Lion's uniform in Barry Sanders. So, it's not out of the realm of possiblity that the Lions have drafted a superstar.....someone who may be the best at his position.

However, for every good pick we have ever made in the 1st round of a NFL draft, we have 5 horrible ones. Maybe I'm now just writing this because of watching Michigan go down in what national media is calling the biggest upset in college football history and their season has gone up in smoke in what should have been a scrimmage. Maybe because after watching Cleveland Indians, NY Yankees, Seattle all lose their BB games today and the Tigers were up 7-0 in Oakland to blow that lead and lose 8-7 in extra innings as a slicing pop up bounced fair off the outside of the line for a double to give Oakland a Cindarella story comeback over the Tigers.

I also must admit fantasy wise, I'm relatively optimistic about the Lions. I just made a bet at a recent fantasy football draft that the Lions will win 6 games this year as I took 6 and over to win the bet.

I also think players like Roy Williams, Tatum Bell and J. Kitna will do pretty well this season. So, I am not a Lion basher.

With that said.......I have heard all the magnificent things said about Johnson. I have seen the college replays, the quotes by players and many of the coaches. I have heard the predictions...........but I haven't seen a whole lot in preseason to back it.

This article written sounds so familiar in the sense that I have I heard all this hype before from the likes of Charlie Rogers and Mike Williams. All of the smoke and mirrors all preseason long.......the bells and whistles and when the bells about to ring for the fight to start:

Johnson still not earned starting role

I can be wrong, he still may start off the season hot and finish even hotter.....but I can honostly say as a person who's relatively high on most Lions players and have them in a few leagues, not one of my teams have C. Johnson. Quite frankly he's one of those guys when he's drafted in your league, I felt happy that he was off the list because I knew I wasn't going to take him. Not at ADP 54 and WR 20 overall.

This entire time I have felt like I was missing the boat...what is everyone seeing that I don't see. Somehow this guy's just gonna explode without showing all that much in preseason and before that we'd just be going on what we saw in college....well, Charlie Rogers and Mike Williams looked good in college too.

I'm not saying you've wasted your dynasty pick. I won't even say you may have wasted a pick on Johnson who may end up helping you as he could certainly progress as the season progresses. I'm just saying in some leagues where he was drafted late 4th and 5th rounds he was being drafted as a solid WR2 like he was going to come out and make and impact right out of the gate and be a solid contributer all season long.

If he does.......outstanding for the Lions and your fantasy football intelligence for taking him so highly. I would be wrong but I guess I've been burned too much on relying on faith as we did with Rogers and Williams. Before I draft a Lions WR in the top 4 to 5 rounds, they simply have to earn it. To me, he hasn't earned the right to be on a team that I draft that high. I do have Roy Williams....to me he's earned it.

Johnson may go on to be ROY and I'll regret writing a post before the season started, questioning his overall Redraft value and his high ADP in fantasy leagues but I feel that he hasn't earned that spot and seeing this one article was just kind of like, "Hey, there's someone else that thinks the same way I do," type of a thing.

Could be some ugly bumps on this thread thru the season, I know that but typing or predicting after the season's over means nothing. We'll see what happens

 

[Chase Stuart]

Five weeks into his rookie season, Charles Rogers ranked as the 20th best fantasy WR.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2Brec

Rogers as a rookie wasn't a bust because he wasn't good, he was a bust as a rookie because he had a season ending injury. I'm not sure that's a good reason to be down on CJ2 (of course, even if Rogers was the bustiest of busts, that still wouldn't be a reason to be down on CJ2. But I'm playing along, here).

 

[LBH]

with the amount of 3 and 4 wr formations the Lions use, I think CJ is as good as a starter. Furrey will be playing the slot when CJ is on the field

 

[tommyk7]

I absolutely agree. I drafted Roy Williams in the late 3rd as my #1 WR. I also have Kitna, taken in the 7th.

Then Cal. Johnson went in the 4th round, 45th pick overall. Ahead of guys like Burress, Coles, Santana Moss, Braylon Edwards.

There are only two #2 WRs worth drafting that high - Housh and Wayne - and it's only because they have proven it with successive years of great production. With Johnson there is none of that and all of the rookie risk.

 

[SnakeEyes]

Crazy hype!! I participated in a draft last weekend and Calvin Johnson went before Roy Williams! In a 12 team league, Calvin went at 04.04 and I got Roy at 04.07. Great WR2 for me as I took Chad Johnson at 02.07!

 

[hellz_fireflies]

Detroit never said he (Calvin) is their starting wr#2 yet... as of today. Furrey is still listed as #2 (and he's hurt).

Lions know he's good (Calvin) but slow learning the teams game book.

 

[Thumper]

Detroit never said he (Calvin) is their starting wr#2 yet... as of today. Furrey is still listed as #2 (and he's hurt).Lions know he's good (Calvin) but slow learning the teams game book.

Johnson is a player.I agree that he might not be a "stud" in his rookie season, but in this offense Johnson will put up very solid #'s as a weak 2 or a good #3.Detroit is going to be a lot of fun to watch this season with Williams, Johnson + Furrey in Mike Martz's system.

 

[joffer]

"Newsflash: rookie WR is overrated"

"Up next: water is determined to be wet"

 

[Saint]

I'm going on a limb and say that I think CJ2 will be a decent WR2. The guy has incredible skills and should be able to take over the WR2 slot from Furrey by Week 6. With the way Martz's offense has worked, I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility for all 3 of the WR (Roy, CJ2, and Furrey) to have good seasons.

Course then again, maybe I am drinking the Furrey 10-win Kool-Aid.

FWIW, I grabbed him at 6.11 and was very pleased.

 

[newteech]

Detroit never said he (Calvin) is their starting wr#2 yet... as of today. Furrey is still listed as #2 (and he's hurt).Lions know he's good (Calvin) but slow learning the teams game book.

Johnson is a player.I agree that he might not be a "stud" in his rookie season, but in this offense Johnson will put up very solid #'s as a weak 2 or a good #3.Detroit is going to be a lot of fun to watch this season with Williams, Johnson + Furrey in Mike Martz's system.

Johnson especially is going to be a lot of fun to watch this season. This kid is a freak of nature.guaranteed lots of redzone looksI think he's worth where he's being drafted in most leagues. WR 18 - 22

 

[hellz_fireflies]

Most drafts I saw he went early in 5th round..being a rookie and R.Williams is the go to guy and the Lions do have a hard sch..its about right early 5th.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm pretty optimistic about CJ's chances this year, but agree that the hype is reaching overvalued proportions. As with any situation where you think a player is going too high, ENJOY IT! In one of my leagues the other day, CJ went right before my pick, which allowed me to grab LEE EVANS <_< who I have ranked 6th this year. Sometimes it's great to have overvalued guys, as long as you're not the one taking the bait.

 

[Ilov80s]

Crazy hype!! I participated in a draft last weekend and Calvin Johnson went before Roy Williams! In a 12 team league, Calvin went at 04.04 and I got Roy at 04.07. Great WR2 for me as I took Chad Johnson at 02.07!

That is pure stupidity. That owner should be put out of his misery. How do you pass on a guy who is a WR1, in a pass happy offense, with a proven track record of strong fantasy performance, and unreal abilities for a rookie who may not even be starting.

 

[Pittsburgh United]

I'm going on a limb and say that I think CJ2 will be a decent WR2. The guy has incredible skills and should be able to take over the WR2 slot from Furrey by Week 6. With the way Martz's offense has worked, I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility for all 3 of the WR (Roy, CJ2, and Furrey) to have good seasons.Course then again, maybe I am drinking the Furrey 10-win Kool-Aid. FWIW, I grabbed him at 6.11 and was very pleased.

I got him at 6.11 too, and I think he was worth it!

 

[Sweetness_34]

Furrey will definitely live up to his ADP in PPR leagues, CJ will not.....I would much rather draft Furrey in the 11th round or so than waste a 4th or 5th on CJ.....which is where he lands up going these days.....ridiculous.

 

[jaybaer]

Got CJ in my main PPR last week at 6.03. There was some less risky WR talent on the board, but we play in a one man keeper league, and keepers can only be your 6th round pick or later. So if he busts out, I can keep him in exchange for my 5th rounder next year. Under those circumstances, it seemed worth the gamble.

But I agree with the original post that in general the price is too high in redrafts. If you're going to take him, you've got to back him up with other potential breakout guys so that hopefully one of them will turn out to be the legit WR2 you seek. It's almost a handcuff strategy (but with guys on different teams).

For example, in addition to CJ (and TO) I took Cotchery, Welker, James Jones, Crayton, Curry (all of them late), figuring one of the six will end up going Colston (or at the very least Santonio Holmes, 2006 version).

 

[delusional]

Got CJ in the 9.06 spot like 2-3 weeks ago in my draft. My #4 WR in a 2 WR league & I have kitna.

At the worst, he doesn't see the field. At the best he becomes a #2 due to injury or bye week filler.

 

[freshly_shorn]

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article...2027/1049/rss14

Been in Detroit all my life, 36 years. I've seen more Lion football than I care to admit.....any Lion's fan deserves a little special place in heaven.

It's certainly possible that the Lions have something extremely special in Calvin Johnson. It has happened before in a Lion's uniform in Barry Sanders. So, it's not out of the realm of possiblity that the Lions have drafted a superstar.....someone who may be the best at his position.

However, for every good pick we have ever made in the 1st round of a NFL draft, we have 5 horrible ones. Maybe I'm now just writing this because of watching Michigan go down in what national media is calling the biggest upset in college football history and their season has gone up in smoke in what should have been a scrimmage. Maybe because after watching Cleveland Indians, NY Yankees, Seattle all lose their BB games today and the Tigers were up 7-0 in Oakland to blow that lead and lose 8-7 in extra innings as a slicing pop up bounced fair off the outside of the line for a double to give Oakland a Cindarella story comeback over the Tigers.

I also must admit fantasy wise, I'm relatively optimistic about the Lions. I just made a bet at a recent fantasy football draft that the Lions will win 6 games this year as I took 6 and over to win the bet.

I also think players like Roy Williams, Tatum Bell and J. Kitna will do pretty well this season. So, I am not a Lion basher.

With that said.......I have heard all the magnificent things said about Johnson. I have seen the college replays, the quotes by players and many of the coaches. I have heard the predictions...........but I haven't seen a whole lot in preseason to back it.

This article written sounds so familiar in the sense that I have I heard all this hype before from the likes of Charlie Rogers and Mike Williams. All of the smoke and mirrors all preseason long.......the bells and whistles and when the bells about to ring for the fight to start:

Johnson still not earned starting role

I can be wrong, he still may start off the season hot and finish even hotter.....but I can honostly say as a person who's relatively high on most Lions players and have them in a few leagues, not one of my teams have C. Johnson. Quite frankly he's one of those guys when he's drafted in your league, I felt happy that he was off the list because I knew I wasn't going to take him. Not at ADP 54 and WR 20 overall.

This entire time I have felt like I was missing the boat...what is everyone seeing that I don't see. Somehow this guy's just gonna explode without showing all that much in preseason and before that we'd just be going on what we saw in college....well, Charlie Rogers and Mike Williams looked good in college too.

I'm not saying you've wasted your dynasty pick. I won't even say you may have wasted a pick on Johnson who may end up helping you as he could certainly progress as the season progresses. I'm just saying in some leagues where he was drafted late 4th and 5th rounds he was being drafted as a solid WR2 like he was going to come out and make and impact right out of the gate and be a solid contributer all season long.

If he does.......outstanding for the Lions and your fantasy football intelligence for taking him so highly. I would be wrong but I guess I've been burned too much on relying on faith as we did with Rogers and Williams. Before I draft a Lions WR in the top 4 to 5 rounds, they simply have to earn it. To me, he hasn't earned the right to be on a team that I draft that high. I do have Roy Williams....to me he's earned it.

Johnson may go on to be ROY and I'll regret writing a post before the season started, questioning his overall Redraft value and his high ADP in fantasy leagues but I feel that he hasn't earned that spot and seeing this one article was just kind of like, "Hey, there's someone else that thinks the same way I do," type of a thing.

Could be some ugly bumps on this thread thru the season, I know that but typing or predicting after the season's over means nothing. We'll see what happens

Good thoughts. He was sitting there for me at 6.7 in a redraft and I couldn't pass him up. He is going to put up some points. Martz has noted a few times that he is still working on conditioning- Martz requires his WRs to go full tilt each and every play. It took awhile for Roy Williams to get used to it, and it will take a couple of weeks for CJ. But, IMO he will start by week 3 if not week 2, and he will be a top 25 receiver by season's end (barring the unforeseens, of course).

 

[norgay]

Like everything else, it depends on your options and expectations. If you drafted him in the 3rd (lol), 4th (reach) 5th (very optimistic) as your 1st or 2nd WR then you will probably be disappointed.

But if you drafted him as your 3rd WR or as a backup with the intention of being patient and giving him the first half of the season to get used to the system and the hope that his freakish talent makes him a force for the second half of the season and the FF playoffs, then its a well calculated risk (in my opinion). This is all the more true if you drafted steady, non "boom or bust" guys in prior rounds that have "high floors" so that if the Calvin Johnson pick doesnt work out your season isnt riding on it.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I absolutely agree. I drafted Roy Williams in the late 3rd as my #1 WR. I also have Kitna, taken in the 7th.

Then Cal. Johnson went in the 4th round, 45th pick overall. Ahead of guys like Burress, Coles, Santana Moss, Braylon Edwards.

There are only two #2 WRs worth drafting that high - Housh and Wayne - and it's only because they have proven it with successive years of great production. With Johnson there is none of that and all of the rookie risk.

Boldin?

 

[bulger2holt]

I got calvin at 6.11 and am very happy as my 3rd wr. . ( for now ) We start 3 wr's, so if he doesnt pan out, I have holmes and hackett on my bench. But I think kitna will throw for 4000 yards, and williams catch have more than 1500, so that leaves plenty for cj2