The best part of Newton's schedule is yet to come. I expect to see more big games over the 2nd half, but he is not matchup proof, like he seemed to be before the season started.
I expect QB5-7 numbers from here on out, with some major games, and some 15 point games.
Based on?
He's had 2 big games, 3 average games and 2 bad games. His average and bad games were played (in descending order of his points scored) against #3, #20, #1, #21 and #7 pass defenses. His two big games were played against #8 and #32 pass defenses. So, seemingly he can do well against good pass defenses (as evidenced by his best game going against Atl-#8), but what explains the poorer showings against TB and Giants lower ranked pass defenses (#20 and #21, respectively)?Not surprisingly, if you look at the same big/avg/bad games breakdown above, his average and bad games were played against #9, #18, #2, #6 and #3 rush defenses. His two best games came against #22 and #32 rush defenses.
Its obvious to me that when facing good pass defenses he can still score you points with his legs and vice versa. Seattle, Giants and Chicago have very good defenses against the pass and the rush and not coincidentally are his three worst games so far this year.
Here's what he's got left (team/Pass Def rank/Rush Def Rank). Note-I've bolded the playoff weeks...
Wash/31/11-Big Matchup
Denver/14/17-Bad Matchup
Tampa/20/18-Good Matchup
Philly/12/12-Bad Matchup
KC/27/25-Big Matchup
Atlanta/8/22-Good Matchup
San Diego/23/16-Big Matchup
Oakland/24/26-Big Matchup
So, based on my theory-he's got two bad weeks coming up where you might want to sit him (Denver and Philly). Tampa and Atlanta are dice rolls, but he's already whupped on Atlanta once. Beyond that-Washington, KC, San Diego and Oakland should all be very high scoring affairs for Cam owners. I am excitedly holding and am trying to find week 10 and 12 fill-ins to hedge my bets.
Top 5 production with a couple of predictable slip-up games from here on in.