Cam Newton (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

I'm surprised by the general lack of excitement over Cam Newton's fantasy prospects. For awhile there, running QBs were the rage in fantasy. McNair to McNabb to Stewart to Vick and Culpepper to Young. Then, since '06, no QB had rushed for 500 yards until Vick did it again last season. I think if Newton had been drafted 5 years ago, we might have a very different outlook on his fantasy stock then we do today. But the fact remains, running quarterbacks are really valuable in fantasy leagues. And there's no quarterback that likes to run like an inexperienced one.

Vince Young had 552/7 in essentially 14 games as a rookie. All three of them sat most if not all of their rookie years, but in their first years starting, McNabb, Vick and Culpepper put up 629/6, 777/8 and 470/7. Even last season, we saw how young QBs like to run: Stephen McGee ran for 55 yards in his only start while Tim Tebow ran 31 times for 199 yards and 3 scores in his three starts.

How does Cam Newton compare? No quarterback in college football ran for more yards in any season from 2000 to 2009 than Newton did last year. With the exception of the triple option attacks at George Tech and Navy, no quarterback ran as many times as Newton has since '00. And with the exception of the Triple Option Attacks and Tim Tebow, no QB ran for as many touchdowns as Newton.

Newton was a much better college runner than Tebow. He was dare I say a better runner than Vince Young, too. And while he wasn't as fast as Vick, his rushing production dwarfs what Vick did. If Newton plays a full season -- perhaps a big "if" considering his running style -- I think he's going to come in at around 600/6.

He's actually coming to a fairly loaded offense. Williams and Stewart are two of the better backs in the league. Olsen and Shockey are above average tight ends. Steve Smith is still a respectable WR1: as recently as '08 he led the league in receiving yards per game, before Carolina's quarterback production sank into the abyss. All that means I don't think defenses key on him as a runner all that much, and I see his running style (and vice versa) opening up lanes for Williams and Stewart.

Vince Young, as a rookie in TEN, had zero weapons around him and what Charles-Barkley-turrrrible as a passer. Young ranked 29th out of 32 QBs in yards per pass attempt. The Titans, with a running QB who wasn't good at passing and no WRs, ranked 28th in pass attempts, and 30th in passing yards.

Vince Young was the 13th ranked fantasy QB that season, thanks to his 552/7 (and remember, this was in just 14 games of real play).

Give Newton 600/6 -- which I think might be underselling him by a bit -- with much better weapons, and this guy is a legit fantasy sleeper. The key is obviously your scoring system, but if you give only 4 points for passing TDs, and especially if you give 1 point for 25 (and not 20) yards passing, Newton could be a steal.

I see no reason why Newton can't outproduce what Vince Young did, playing with Travis Henry, Drew Bennett, Brandon Jones, Bo Scaife and Ben Troupe.

 

[Sabertooth]

As a dynasty owner in a start 2QB league, I feel the need to this thread. But I'm skeptical at best.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Good thread and I agree to a large extent. It seems Carolina may make him sit for a couple of games behind Claussen, but if that isn't the case I think Newton is a great upside QB2 for fantasy teams even in re-drafts this year.

 

[Faust]

I am liking Cam's prospects more and more each day...Steve Smith stays put, they added Shockey and Olsen at TE, the young group of WRs will have another year of experience under their belts and reports are that Edwards is looking sharp after being ignored by the Fox regime.

They should be playing from behind in a number of games, and despite having a bit of a tough schedule, it should actually help Cam's fantasy production and if you play in a league that doesn't penalize for INTs then he looks even better.

Clausen hasn't shown much and some reports have Cam ahead and playing better already, so he definately should be on your watch list right now depending on your league format, scoring rules, and current roster

 

[Chase Stuart]

I am liking Cam's prospects more and more each day...Steve Smith stays put, they added Shockey and Olsen at TE, the young group of WRs will have another year of experience under their belts and reports are that Edwards is looking sharp after being ignored by the Fox regime.They should be playing from behind in a number of games, and despite having a bit of a tough schedule, it should actually help Cam's fantasy production and if you play in a league that doesn't penalize for INTs then he looks even better.Clausen hasn't shown much and some reports have Cam ahead and playing better already, so he definately should be on your watch list right now depending on your league format, scoring rules, and current roster

I really would be shocked to see Clausen start the season. The only QBs with worse seasons the past ten years were Raiders: JMR in '09 and Andrew Walter in '06. Clausen isn't a savvy veteran and he's not a Ron Rivera guy, and I can't imagine him looking better than Newton in practice. As for Derek Anderson, well, only Clausen was worse than him last year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Young scored 241 fantasy points as a rookie . . . and ranked tied for 12th. But with the escalating fantasy scoring at the QB position, that same total would have ranked 21st last year. I'm not sure Newton will have the passing totals to merit starting fantasy QB consideration. I also am concerned that with so many RB options in Carolina that Newton will see the bulk of his rushing totals from scrambles and not called plays. So he may not have the rushing totals that Chase suggested. He might be a decent fantasy backup, but I would not expect him to rank as high as Young did.

 

[Stealthycat]

I watched Cam in the SEC ......... he's inaccurate and will be an NFL bust. His running made the college difference, it will not make the NFL one

Sorry

 

[Chase Stuart]

Young scored 241 fantasy points as a rookie . . . and ranked tied for 12th. But with the escalating fantasy scoring at the QB position, that same total would have ranked 21st last year. I'm not sure Newton will have the passing totals to merit starting fantasy QB consideration. I also am concerned that with so many RB options in Carolina that Newton will see the bulk of his rushing totals from scrambles and not called plays. So he may not have the rushing totals that Chase suggested. He might be a decent fantasy backup, but I would not expect him to rank as high as Young did.

That's a fair point, but I also expect Newton to put up better passing numbers than Young. Young has just 2200 passing yards and 12 touchdowns. If Newton plays in 16 games, he should eclipse those numbers.The '05 Falcons are a good guide. The top two RBs had 400 carries for 1800 yards, while Vick had 600 yards and 6 TDs in 15 games -- along with 2400/15 through the air. I agree that Carolina may not call a lot of designed runs, but I think they'll call a few. That plus a bunch of scrambles should put Newton in good position. Just watching him play it's hard to see him not average over 30 rushing yards per game. He'll also have some long runs and potentially a bunch of scores -- he was a fantastic short-yardage runner in college.

 

[bonesman]

Alright! I've been waiting for some Cam discussion! Everyone was so sick of hearing about him leading up to the draft that we haven't had a thread devoted to him in months.

I'm personally cautiously optimistic about his chances this year and fairly bullish on his future as a QB. I think the JaMarcuss comparisons are myopic and based on little else besides draft slot and skin tone.

 

[Sabertooth]

Carolina has a pretty nice history with their first round picks. I don't see a bust in the group since 2001.

I'd really love to hear some Cam Newton talk though.

 

[Stealthycat]

Cam has 14 games of experience against top college players

he's going to go into the NFL and light it up on that experience? Seriously?

LOL

 

[5-ish Finkle]

I have my doubts about Cam, but I'd hardly call a prediction of 600 rushing yards and 2400 passing yards "lighting it up."

If he plays the whole year, 500+ rushing yards are probably a near lock. 2400 passing yards doesn't seem insurmountable either, again if he plays all 16.

 

[LHUCKS]

Young had more time to prepare...the holdout was a huge disadvantage for Newtwon, not to mention he's not what you'd call a "cerebral" QB.

Not touching him. Give me Kolb at about the same ADP.

 

[pantherclub]

Young had more time to prepare...the holdout was a huge disadvantage for Newtwon, not to mention he's not what you'd call a "cerebral" QB. Not touching him. Give me Kolb at about the same ADP.

Kolb is going in the 9th round. I swear I think you are getting your info from a crappy source.

 

[LHUCKS]

Young had more time to prepare...the holdout was a huge disadvantage for Newtwon, not to mention he's not what you'd call a "cerebral" QB. Not touching him. Give me Kolb at about the same ADP.

Kolb is going in the 9th round. I swear I think you are getting your info from a crappy source.

Kolb is going at 133 and Newton is at 167 per MFL stats.No thanks on Newton, unless you're in the deepest of leagues.

 

[pantherclub]

Young had more time to prepare...the holdout was a huge disadvantage for Newtwon, not to mention he's not what you'd call a "cerebral" QB. Not touching him. Give me Kolb at about the same ADP.

Kolb is going in the 9th round. I swear I think you are getting your info from a crappy source.

Kolb is going at 133 and Newton is at 167 per MFL stats.No thanks on Newton, unless you're in the deepest of leagues.

There is your overall problem. You are basing too much of your strategy on these types of stats and not your general knowledge. In no league whatsoever would Newton and Kolb be anywhere close in draft rankings. Thats just insane when you step back and think about it.

 

[The Gunslinger]

I watched Cam in the SEC ......... he's inaccurate and will be an NFL bust. His running made the college difference, it will not make the NFL oneSorry

For someone who "watched" Cam in the SEC, you seem to be inaccurate in your statements. Cam finished 2nd in passing efficiency. Not in the SEC, in the nation. Some would say that the SEC is known for playing defense(sarcastic understatement). Can accounted for 49 TD's in his 1st year as a starter, 1st year in Malzahn's system, 1st year with his new team. He led an Auburn team, that had ZERO drafted skill position players and was picked to finish 4th in the SEC west to an undefeated national championship season en route to winning the Heisman trophy. A few defenses shut down his running but paid dearly by sacrificing their coverage in the secondary. By the end of the season, he was more of a threat throwing the ball than as a runner.It's OK to get in line to hate him, but be prepared to face him in your fantasy leagues for years to come. He is a generational talent who also happens to possess tremendous work ethic, charisma, and an uncanny ability to lead his team mates.Season 1:774 rush yards -6 TD's2900 pass yards. 18td's. 14 int

 

[anakin]

From my draftbreakdown.com article http://draftbreakdown.com/players-who-received-help-from-free-agent-signings-and-trades :

Cam Newton, on the other hand, hasn’t had much time to prepare for the NFL with his Panther teammates. Most importantly for him, Newton has gotten some much needed help in the last few days. The re-signing of DeAngelo Williams may indeed hurt the fantasy chances of Jonathan Stewart, but it gives the defense another target to concentrate their sights. A good/great running game will lessen any pressure rookie Newton will have to prove his 1.1 NFL draft pick status. If the Carolina OC puts Williams, Stewart, and Newton on the field at the same time on the goal line, how will defenses be able to focus on any one of them? With Newton’s build at 6’6”, 250 lbs., he might be able to get 5-7 goal line TDs!

Also by adding TE threats in Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen, Newton will have effective short pass catchers that are dependable red zone threats. The biggest non-subtraction of this offseason is Steve Smith staying on the Panthers. Smith will help make WRs Brandon LaFell and David Gettis better by taking away coverage from them by stretching the field. All of these factors play to Newton’s strengths. Newton will be a fantastic #3 QB option and may end up being a great bye week QB play.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I watched Cam in the SEC ......... he's inaccurate and will be an NFL bust. His running made the college difference, it will not make the NFL one

Sorry

I watched plenty of Cam as well. I will say that he is far from polished as a passer, but his passing was improving game after game, all season long last year. His accuracy improved. His timing improved. He did fairly well IMO, of keeping his eyes downfield while buying time in the pocket. Granted, he was VERY willing to pull it down and run, but with that skill set who could blame him? All in all, I'd say he's a better runner than Vince Young or Tim Tebow and a much better passer than either one. He also has a reputation as a very hard worker and seems dedicated to improving. I just can't believe how late a 1st overall pick is going in rookie drafts and how little respect he is getting. I don't think he's a sure thing like I did Bradford or do Luck, but he's no JMR.And why can't one of the best running QBs in college history run in the pros? Cunningham did, Kordell did, Vick did, Vince and Steve Young did, Flutie did... Aside from Steve, none of them were terriffic passers.

 

[Stealthycat]

all those QB's gained college experience and had accuracy and football minds IMO

Cam will fail, he will be bad ....... even great NFL receivers (which he won't have at his disposal)cannot overcome a crap QB

Cam will fail

 

[LHUCKS]

In terms of his long term prospects, I think he has a lot more going for him than some of the other failed "running" QBs previously mentioned.

I think he has a decent shot at succeeding.

 

[Sabertooth]

all those QB's gained college experience and had accuracy and football minds IMOCam will fail, he will be bad ....... even great NFL receivers (which he won't have at his disposal)cannot overcome a crap QBCam will fail

This is all kinds of wrong. First you said he was inaccurate but then that was refuted with facts. Vince Young and Kordell Stewart were not accurate. Neither was Vick until this season. Larry Fitzgerald overcame about the worst QB situation in recent memory just last season. Did Cam steal your girlfriend or something? Your post wreaks of personal bias and immaturity. You may have valid points and you are obviously entitled to your own opinion, just not your own facts.

 

[moderated]

all those QB's gained college experience and had accuracy and football minds IMOCam will fail, he will be bad ....... even great NFL receivers (which he won't have at his disposal)cannot overcome a crap QBCam will fail

This is all kinds of wrong. First you said he was inaccurate but then that was refuted with facts. Vince Young and Kordell Stewart were not accurate. Neither was Vick until this season. Larry Fitzgerald overcame about the worst QB situation in recent memory just last season. Did Cam steal your girlfriend or something? Your post wreaks of personal bias and immaturity. You may have valid points and you are obviously entitled to your own opinion, just not your own facts.

But he's watched SEC football.

 

[The Gunslinger]

all those QB's gained college experience and had accuracy and football minds IMO

Cam will fail, he will be bad ....... even great NFL receivers (which he won't have at his disposal)cannot overcome a crap QB

Lol, you seem to take this personal. Did Cam steal your girlfriend in college? How about listing some reasons (based in fact please) that you believe he will fail.

P.S. Posting repeatedly in a Cam Newton thread that he will fail, probably won't cause it to come true. Just saying!

 

[bonesman]

Cam will fail

I like the contrast between posters who are haters that repeat mantras and throw out baseless claims... with that of posters that support their comments and opinions with logic and reason, whether pro or con.So here's a challenge to the Cam haters and doubters. Please provide some compelling reasons why Cam might fail.

 

[Mister CIA]

all those QB's gained college experience and had accuracy and football minds IMOCam will fail, he will be bad ....... even great NFL receivers (which he won't have at his disposal)cannot overcome a crap QBCam will fail

Are you the guy in my league that just had knee surgery? Could be the painkillers talking here.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Yhe buzz out of camp is that Cam is blowing peoples minds with his ability. I like it as a late flyer qb, especially in keeper leagues.

 

[PhantomJB]

Cam will fail

I like the contrast between posters who are haters that repeat mantras and throw out baseless claims... with that of posters that support their comments and opinions with logic and reason, whether pro or con.So here's a challenge to the Cam haters and doubters. Please provide some compelling reasons why Cam might fail.

Here are 24 experienced NFL QB's that many reasonable people would consider better than a Cam Newton in his 1st year with a new coach. Sorry. Don't see the QB2, nor do I see the upside.T. BradyD. BreesP. ManningA. RodgersM. VickP. RiversT. RomoM. SchaubB. RoethlisbergerM. RyanE. ManningM. StaffordS. BradfordJ. FreemanJ. FlaccoJ. CutlerR. FitzpatrickK. KolbD. McNabbM. CasselK. OrtonM. HasselbeckJ. CampbellM. Sanchez

 

[Mister CIA]

Cam will fail

I like the contrast between posters who are haters that repeat mantras and throw out baseless claims... with that of posters that support their comments and opinions with logic and reason, whether pro or con.So here's a challenge to the Cam haters and doubters. Please provide some compelling reasons why Cam might fail.

Here are 24 experienced NFL QB's that many reasonable people would consider better than a Cam Newton in his 1st year with a new coach. Sorry. Don't see the QB2, nor do I see the upside.T. BradyD. BreesP. ManningA. RodgersM. VickP. RiversT. RomoM. SchaubB. RoethlisbergerM. RyanE. ManningM. StaffordS. BradfordJ. FreemanJ. FlaccoJ. CutlerR. FitzpatrickK. KolbD. McNabbM. CasselK. OrtonM. HasselbeckJ. CampbellM. Sanchez

Note to self, purchase Joe Orsulak fathead.

 

[Stealthycat]

I will bookmark this and come back apologizing or gloating some January ......... good luck with your drafting fellows.

BTW .......... uh, yes, it might be the Vicotin (ACL surgery SUCKS)

 

[Maggot Brain]

I watched Cam in the SEC ......... he's inaccurate and will be an NFL bust. His running made the college difference, it will not make the NFL oneSorry

I disagree, as to him being a bust. Time will tell I suppose.

 

[elbowrm]

M. StaffordS. BradfordJ. FreemanJ. FlaccoJ. CutlerR. FitzpatrickK. KolbM. CasselK. OrtonM. Sanchez

Add newton, Tebow, etc.This is looking like a great year to wait on QB and draft 3 of these guys if you have the roster space.

 

[FF Ninja]

Shouldn't the subtitle read "upside = high QB2" rather than "high upside QB2"? I'm certainly not planning on drafting him as my QB2. A high upside QB2 is Jay Cutler.

 

[munchkin]

I give Newton a shot at bettering the passer rating to date for these guys; Kolb (73.2), Fitz (73.0) and Sanchez (70.2).

 

[nysportsfan]

Worth a late round flier, for sure. This might be one of those situations where the later your draft, the more you will have to pay for him. I think once his athleticism beomces evident in pre-season games, people are going to start taking him earlier and earlier. JMO, of course.

 

[cobalt_27]

He should be taken #2 overall. Do the math.

/vickfanboys

 

[Bri]

Rookies worry me, relying on them. Of course Cam has a high ceiling, that's why he was drafted so highly. What's the floor though and can you handle that in FF?

Vince was super efficient as a rookie. The offense was not "opened up" by any stretch and he didn't even really have an opportunity to throw for 300 yards each week. He made every play count and found a way to get first down after first down. He was ad-libbing and forcing players to block and/or make a tough catch. We watched him raise the bar all by himself as a rook. They were bad before he came in and people were calling for coaches heads on a platter.

Cam won't find much room to run if their focus is all players that utilize the middle of the field. The Panthers were very easy to defense last year and have to utilize the whole field to establish some outside threats for Cam. I don't care if Stewart lines up as a WR, just get the D to pay attention so it opens things up some. IMO This was a major flaw with the Titans back then and the Falcons got instantly better once Roddy and Jenkins became threats a D had to worry about.

The games without Steve Smith show this as well.

The Panthers hired the Titans WRs coach.

This camp has to be about establishing some outside threats. I think it can be done and could make this a very impressive O much quicker than some are projecting. If their WRs are doing well in preseason, then I'll be on the Cam bandwagon, but I have to see that first.

 

[[scooter]]

I'm surprised by the general lack of excitement over Cam Newton's fantasy prospects.

Really?? How many rookie QBs have been "high upside QB2"s in the past 20 years? Three? Out of 241? Excuse me if I'm not thrilled about those odds.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm surprised by the general lack of excitement over Cam Newton's fantasy prospects.

Really?? How many rookie QBs have been "high upside QB2"s in the past 20 years? Three? Out of 241? Excuse me if I'm not thrilled about those odds.

Put another way, to rank as the QB20 last year, it took roughly 250 fantasy points. In the past 50 years, only 2 rookie QB have hit 250 points in a season (Jim Kelly 270 and Peyton Manning 269). That doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies that Newton will be an impact fantasy force this year.To be clear, he may be decent depth for a fantasy squad and maybe he will have some decent weeks. But to be forced to play him in your fantasy lineup on a regular basis will probably not be a good thing. Sure, maybe QB scoring takes a dip this year and Newton might rank a little higher, but either way I don't expect him to be a fantasy difference maker this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm surprised by the general lack of excitement over Cam Newton's fantasy prospects.

Really?? How many rookie QBs have been "high upside QB2"s in the past 20 years? Three? Out of 241? Excuse me if I'm not thrilled about those odds.

Put another way, to rank as the QB20 last year, it took roughly 250 fantasy points. In the past 50 years, only 2 rookie QB have hit 250 points in a season (Jim Kelly 270 and Peyton Manning 269). That doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies that Newton will be an impact fantasy force this year.

, particularly with one month to prepare Kelly and Manning had an entire offseason.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm surprised by the general lack of excitement over Cam Newton's fantasy prospects.

Really?? How many rookie QBs have been "high upside QB2"s in the past 20 years? Three? Out of 241? Excuse me if I'm not thrilled about those odds.

Doesn't really make sense to compare the first pick in the draft to some 6th round QB who doesn't start.In any given week, Newton is going to be projected to rush for 30-45 yards and half a touchdown. That's like adding 80 passing yards and a TD to his passing yards, making a 150/1 week into a 230/2. That's pretty good for a backup QB.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm surprised by the general lack of excitement over Cam Newton's fantasy prospects.

Really?? How many rookie QBs have been "high upside QB2"s in the past 20 years? Three? Out of 241? Excuse me if I'm not thrilled about those odds.

Put another way, to rank as the QB20 last year, it took roughly 250 fantasy points. In the past 50 years, only 2 rookie QB have hit 250 points in a season (Jim Kelly 270 and Peyton Manning 269). That doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies that Newton will be an impact fantasy force this year.To be clear, he may be decent depth for a fantasy squad and maybe he will have some decent weeks. But to be forced to play him in your fantasy lineup on a regular basis will probably not be a good thing. Sure, maybe QB scoring takes a dip this year and Newton might rank a little higher, but either way I don't expect him to be a fantasy difference maker this year.

Only 2 rookie QBs have done that... out of the 8 rookie QBs to start 16 games in a season. And none of the other six were runners (Bradford, Ryan, Moon, Flacco, Mirer, Carr).

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm surprised by the general lack of excitement over Cam Newton's fantasy prospects.

Really?? How many rookie QBs have been "high upside QB2"s in the past 20 years? Three? Out of 241? Excuse me if I'm not thrilled about those odds.

Put another way, to rank as the QB20 last year, it took roughly 250 fantasy points. In the past 50 years, only 2 rookie QB have hit 250 points in a season (Jim Kelly 270 and Peyton Manning 269). That doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies that Newton will be an impact fantasy force this year.To be clear, he may be decent depth for a fantasy squad and maybe he will have some decent weeks. But to be forced to play him in your fantasy lineup on a regular basis will probably not be a good thing. Sure, maybe QB scoring takes a dip this year and Newton might rank a little higher, but either way I don't expect him to be a fantasy difference maker this year.

Only 2 rookie QBs have done that... out of the 8 rookie QBs to start 16 games in a season. And none of the other six were runners (Bradford, Ryan, Moon, Flacco, Mirer, Carr).

To rank as a QB1 last year in ppg in 12 team leagues, it took 19.1 fantasy points (minimum 8 games played). There has never been a rookie QB that played in at least 8 games to average that high (of the 183 rookie QBs in the past 50 years to play in at least 8 games). The QB24 averaged 15.3 ppg last year in terms of ppg rankings (again minimum 8 games played).The Top 10 producers were . . .

1 Jake Plummer 1997 18.88

2 Dan Marino 1983 18.27

3 Mark Rypien 1988 17.18

4 Jim Kelly 1986 16.91

5 Aaron Brooks 2000 16.84

6 Peyton Manning 1998 16.82

7 Matthew Stafford 2009 16.82

8 Vince Young 2006 16.14

9 Rodney Peete 1989 15.47

10 Fran Tarkenton 1961 15.40

For argument's sake, let's say Newton averages 16.5 ppg (which is being generous in my book), which would be better than Young produced 5 years ago. Newton would have ranked 22nd last year in terms of ppg. IMO, it would take a MONUMENTAL rookie season from Newton to become fantasy relevant and better than an emergency fill-in this year.

Essentially, based on last year's QB numbers, Newton would have to have a Top 3 all time rookie season based on ppg scoring to have ranked in the Top 20 QBs last year. (#20 QB = 17.4 ppg in 2010).

 

[Chase Stuart]

To rank as a QB1 last year in ppg in 12 team leagues, it took 19.1 fantasy points (minimum 8 games played). There has never been a rookie QB that played in at least 8 games to average that high (of the 183 rookie QBs in the past 50 years to play in at least 8 games). The QB24 averaged 15.3 ppg last year in terms of ppg rankings (again minimum 8 games played).

For argument's sake, let's say Newton averages 16.5 ppg (which is being generous in my book), which would be better than Young produced 5 years ago. Newton would have ranked 22nd last year in terms of ppg. IMO, it would take a MONUMENTAL rookie season from Newton to become fantasy relevant and better than an emergency fill-in this year.

Essentially, based on last year's QB numbers, Newton would have to have a Top 3 all time rookie season based on ppg scoring to have ranked in the Top 20 QBs last year. (#20 QB = 17.4 ppg in 2010).

I don't think historical numbers serve any good here, because QB scoring is much higher than it was the '70s. If you don't want to compare ranks, then you should really just stick to the last few years, IMO.I don't think Newton will be in the top 12 in PPG. What I think is that if he starts 16 games, he'll probably be in the top 15. And on a week-to-week basis, I think he's going to be a solid QB2.

What projections would you have for Newton assuming he starts 16 games and takes every snap for the Panthers? Here are mine:

440 pass attempts x 6.25 Y/A for 2,750 yards; 16 TDs, 20 INTs; 105 carries, 650 yards, 7 TDs. That's 288.5 FPs based on FBG scoring of 1/20, 1/10, 4, 6, -1. That would make him the Carolina Team QB equal to QB17 for last year: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/datadom.php?pt=o&groupyears=1&prr=ps&pos=qb&team=all&opp=all&minyr=2010&maxyr=2010&minwk=1&maxwk=17&homeroad=all&mindown=1&maxdown=4&mindist=1&maxdist=99&minfp=0&maxfp=100&mintime=0&maxtime=75&minmargin=-99&maxmargin=99&sortby=fpt&sortorder=desc&mintoqual=0&mincat=att%2Brsh%2Brec

Realistically, we should probably project him for around 14 games, not 16 (including missing partial games). Very few QBs actually take every snap for their team. He might start 8 games, he might start 16, he might miss five quarters due to injury, he might miss 40. So projecting 14 games...

2400 yards

14 TDs

17.5 INTs

570 rushing yards

6.1 TDs

Does that make him fantasy relevant? I think so. If you want to go stud QB early, I'd be comfortable avoiding the position for the rest of the draft and taking Newton at the very end. I also suspect he'll have one or two huge games, ala Vince Young (who had two 30+ point games as a rookie).

 

[David Yudkin]

I think your rushing totals, particularly TD, are too high for Newton. They have PLENTY of RBs to pound the ball into the end zone.

Carolina had a shade over 2600 passing yards last season. You initially had Newton pegged for 2750 passing yards. IMO, given that he is a rookie with limited practice time, I think the Panthers will revert back to the power running came that netted their RB corps 2400 rushing yards in 08 and 09.

As you said, Newton may not take every snap, and if he doesn't fare well and the team loses a ton I venture that he might come out of some games (or he gets a mystery ailment and sits out a couple weeks to get his head on straight).

It would not surprise me to see 2150 passing yards, 11 passing TD, 16 INT; 400 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD. Sure, he could do better than that, but that line would not shock me. (Carolina only had 9 passing TD last year.)

If you want to make a case that there will be fewer high scoring QBs this year and thus Newton will rank higher because of it, I'm not sure I'd buy into that argument.

I suspect people that draft Newton in a redraft league will get what they expect at the point they get him and MAYBE a little more if he has a big game when he is actually in someone's weekly lineup should that team's #1 QB be hurt or on a bye.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think your rushing totals, particularly TD, are too high for Newton. They have PLENTY of RBs to pound the ball into the end zone.Carolina had a shade over 2600 passing yards last season. You initially had Newton pegged for 2750 passing yards. IMO, given that he is a rookie with limited practice time, I think the Panthers will revert back to the power running came that netted their RB corps 2400 rushing yards in 08 and 09.As you said, Newton may not take every snap, and if he doesn't fare well and the team loses a ton I venture that he might come out of some games (or he gets a mystery ailment and sits out a couple weeks to get his head on straight).It would not surprise me to see 2150 passing yards, 11 passing TD, 16 INT; 400 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD. Sure, he could do better than that, but that line would not shock me. (Carolina only had 9 passing TD last year.)If you want to make a case that there will be fewer high scoring QBs this year and thus Newton will rank higher because of it, I'm not sure I'd buy into that argument.I suspect people that draft Newton in a redraft league will get what they expect at the point they get him and MAYBE a little more if he has a big game when he is actually in someone's weekly lineup should that team's #1 QB be hurt or on a bye.

Carolina had a shade over 2600 passing yards last season... with an absolutely pathetic rookie QB. Newton would have to be blind to be worse than Clausen, plus he gets Olsen and Shockey. I think 2750 passing yards is a normal projection for Carolina as a team this year.I guess we mostly disagree about his rushing numbers, but I'm not sure if we can do much else but agree to disagree. I think 40 yards and close to half a TD per game are what we'll see out of Newton in 2011. He's the best running QB to be drafted in the first round since at least Michael Vick, and maybe longer. 400 rushing yards would mean to me that he's only playing in about 10 games.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think your rushing totals, particularly TD, are too high for Newton. They have PLENTY of RBs to pound the ball into the end zone.Carolina had a shade over 2600 passing yards last season. You initially had Newton pegged for 2750 passing yards. IMO, given that he is a rookie with limited practice time, I think the Panthers will revert back to the power running came that netted their RB corps 2400 rushing yards in 08 and 09.As you said, Newton may not take every snap, and if he doesn't fare well and the team loses a ton I venture that he might come out of some games (or he gets a mystery ailment and sits out a couple weeks to get his head on straight).It would not surprise me to see 2150 passing yards, 11 passing TD, 16 INT; 400 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD. Sure, he could do better than that, but that line would not shock me. (Carolina only had 9 passing TD last year.)If you want to make a case that there will be fewer high scoring QBs this year and thus Newton will rank higher because of it, I'm not sure I'd buy into that argument.I suspect people that draft Newton in a redraft league will get what they expect at the point they get him and MAYBE a little more if he has a big game when he is actually in someone's weekly lineup should that team's #1 QB be hurt or on a bye.

Carolina had a shade over 2600 passing yards last season... with an absolutely pathetic rookie QB. Newton would have to be blind to be worse than Clausen, plus he gets Olsen and Shockey. I think 2750 passing yards is a normal projection for Carolina as a team this year.I guess we mostly disagree about his rushing numbers, but I'm not sure if we can do much else but agree to disagree. I think 40 yards and close to half a TD per game are what we'll see out of Newton in 2011. He's the best running QB to be drafted in the first round since at least Michael Vick, and maybe longer. 400 rushing yards would mean to me that he's only playing in about 10 games.

The main differences in what we are saying . . . you think Newton could play close to 100% of snaps. I think he could play a lot fewer snaps and that other QBs may come in if the team can't win, the offense falls flat, or they get killed. So your total team passing numbers might be right overall, I just think it will be split up a little more than just Newton.Only one rookie QB has averaged 40+ yards rushing per game with at least 8 games played (and oddly enough it was not Michael Vick). 4 guys have averaged 35 rushing yards as rookies (Billy Kilmer, Michael Vick, Bobby Douglass, Vince Young). It remains to be seen how much the Panthers want Newton to run and if he will have to take a pounding.It will be interesting to monitor, as anyone that can put up RB3 rushing numbers and QB3 passing numbers has some value. If he flirts with RB2 running and QB2 passing numbers, then I would tend to agree that he could have a fair amount of value.

 

[Faust]

Panthers rookie QB Newton wows fans to cap stellar week

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Cam Newton put on a show for the more than 15,000 Carolina Panthers fans who braved threatening weather Saturday to get a glimpse of the rookie quarterback at the team's annual Fan Fest at Bank of America Stadium.

The No. 1 overall pick looked extremely comfortable in his new home stadium, making short work of a two-minute drill on offense by throwing a 70-yard touchdown pass to tight end Gary Barnidge and then adding a 65-yard scoring strike to David Clowney later on.

It capped an impressive first week for Newton, who led Auburn to a national championship last year and won the Heisman Trophy.

Earlier in training camp, coach Ron Rivera was asked his impressions of Newton and responded, "Wow!"

Fans seemed to have the same reaction Saturday, giving Newton a hero's welcome. Many view him as the savior for an offense that finished last in the league in scoring, total offense and passing yards in 2010.

"It felt great," Newton said. "For me this whole process has been a roller-coaster ride -- up and down, up and down. But the one thing I've been trying to focus on in practice is being more consistent. ... New plays are going in every day. I'm just trying to learn each day."

Wide receiver Steve Smith, who worked out with Newton in Charlotte during the lockout, said both Newton and Jimmy Clausen are doing well.

When asked about Newton in particular, Smith called him "a superior athlete."

"He's on his back foot throwing 50-yard passes. I mean, c'mon," Smith said. "I'm not going to sit here every week and say how good Cam is. He didn't win the Heisman Trophy because there was bad counting on the ballot. He won because he's good."

Rivera isn't saying who'll start the regular season opener on Sept. 11 against the Arizona Cardinals, but it's pretty easy to tell who the fans like. On Saturday they booed Clausen when he threw incomplete passes and cheered when Newton did just about anything.

Smith said both quarterbacks stand a better chance of succeeding in this year's West Coast offense, run by offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski.

"The quarterbacks are doing what has not been done around here in a long time," Smith said. "The philosophy has been in years past is not to screw it up and now it's put your foot down on the gas pedal and go hard."

Newton praised Chudzinski for being "open-minded" when it comes to the playbook.

Chudzinski, who coached under Norv Turner in San Diego and is using many aspects of the Chargers' offense in Carolina, even installed some zone-read-option plays, something Newton excelled at last year at Auburn.

"That means a lot to me personally," Newton said. "He's always willing to put in things that make everybody excited. Not only me, but everybody. He's willing to capitalize on my strong points of the game."

It's hard to find someone who's not happy with the new offense which is expected to feature tight ends Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey.

Smith, in particular, is thrilled after two seasons where his season statistics dropped off dramatically under former offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson.

"Run blocking is not my forte," Smith said. "And it's nice to have layers and have multiple sets and not be standing in one spot for 70 plays during a game. I get to line up at different spots and it's refreshing. I like that. It's not (coaches) saying, hey, we're going to move you around and then never do it. Here they are actually saying it and it's happening."

Newton, who signed a four-year, $22 million contract with a team option for a fifth season, spent much of Saturday flashing his million-dollar smile and soaking things in.

"In kindergarten they always said kids do something that you want to wake up and do in the morning and enjoy doing that for the rest of your life," Newton said. "I'm under contract for a couple of years so every single day I'm going to enjoy playing football. I'm going to be the person I am and that's enjoying life and playing football."

Notes: The Panthers claimed defensive back Chevis Jackson off waivers from the Denver Broncos. Jackson has played in 33 games with three starts during his three-year career. ... The Panthers were without six defensive starters on Saturday including defensive end Greg Hardy, defensive tackle Ron Edwards, linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis, and cornerbacks Chris Gamble and Captain Munnerlyn. Rivera said the team hasn't made a decision yet on whether they'll place Edwards on injured reserve after he tore his triceps Thursday night.

 

[pantherclub]

in this clip his passes either look really really good or really really bad.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Saw this interesting report about the Panthers' FanFest inter-team scrimmage:

Unlike earlier during the first week of training camp where he dazzled with his feet, Newton reportedly stuck to the pocket for the most part Saturday (Panthers' FanFest inter-team scrimmage) and showed good arm strength and accuracy.

and also this from Steve Smith:

“He’s on his back foot throwing 50-yard passes. I mean, c’mon,” Steve Smith said after the scrimmage. “He didn’t win the Heisman Trophy because there was bad counting on the ballot. He won because he’s good.”

I'm not ready to move him up my QB draftboard dramatically, but if he looks solid in his time during the first preseason game I'll reconsider...Definitely a guy to watch according to the reports I'm hearing out of Carolina.