I'm a firm believer if you can't catch by the time you're drafted you won't suddenly 'get it' once you reach the pros.
It's one of the few areas where you either have it or you don't.
DROP PERCENTAGE: WIDE RECEIVERS from pro football focusWe’ve recently been running a series of articles, breaking down aspects of player performance, and next up we’re looking at wide receivers. Following on from an article we did last year, it seemed a good place to start would be in breaking down the drop issues wide receivers have.
Now the drop stat in itself is an interesting one. A glance can suggest which receivers have the more questionable hands in the league, but it’s not exactly fair to class all guys with 12 drops, for example, together. After all, one could have 24 receptions, and the other 124.
So in one of our simpler metric type articles, we’re bringing you our Drop Percentage for all receivers who had at least 50 catchable balls thrown their way (catchable balls determined by just adding together the number of receptions and drops).
Dependable in 2010
It’s not shocking to see that up near the top, we have a couple of guys who do most of their damage in catching shorter, underneath routes. Still, you have to give credit to Jordan Shipley and Earl Bennett for holding onto everything thrown their way. That’s the kind of dependency that should make life a lot easier for a potential rookie starter at quarterback in Cincinnati, and you would think it might make Jay Cutler seem a little less erratic.
When discussing the top receivers in a list like this, you’re never far from mentioning Larry Fitzgerald. Despite dealing with some terrible quarterback play that wasn’t just inaccurate, but would lead you into harms way often, Fitzgerald did more than you’d expect most mortals to do by dropping only three of the 90 catchable balls thrown his way. This was good enough for fourth, behind another guy who always finishes highly on this list, Kevin Walter.
Indeed, with their two best receivers in the top fifteen, you can’t argue the Texans aren’t helping out Matt Schaub in this regard. Walter has become one of the league’s most reliable targets, while Andre Johnson eliminated some of the drops that had always been a part of his game. Somehow Johnson managed to improve this season, and he did so on an injured ankle.
Elsewhere in the Top 10, you have a couple more guys who play mainly in the slot (Mike Thomas and Eddie Royal), and perhaps more surprisingly, one of the leagues’ best deep threats in 2010, Brandon Lloyd. The catches tend to be a bit harder the further downfield you go, but Lloyd displayed a previously unseen consistency to make plays on balls that you didn’t think he had any right to.
Just outside the top ten is a name that will surprise a few, Braylon Edwards. The New York Jet developed a reputation for drops after a 2008 that saw his star fall in Cleveland. He didn’t help himself with the odd terrible (but highly publicized) drop in 2009 and even now the label of a guy with bad hands sticks (every drop of his receives more press time than other top guys). Remarkable then that he only dropped four balls all year, a better rate than either of the other Jets to make this list. The ever excellent Santonio Holmes dropped eight balls and finished in 42nd, while the normally reliable Jerricho Cotchery put 10 on the ground for the third worst number in the league. Edwards’ name will come up later, making his improvement in New York all the more stark.
Wide Receivers, Top 15 Drop Percentage, 2010
Rank Player Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %
1 Jordan Shipley CIN 52 0 52 0.00%
2 Earl Bennett CHI 50 0 50 0.00%
3 Kevin Walter HST 51 1 52 1.92%
4 Larry Fitzgerald ARZ 90 3 93 3.23%
5 Eddie Royal DEN 59 2 61 3.28%
6 Lance Moore NO 70 3 73 4.11%
7 Mario Manningham NYG 60 3 63 4.76%
8 Brandon Lloyd DEN 77 4 81 4.94%
9 Anquan Boldin BLT 70 4 74 5.41%
10t Mike Thomas JAX 66 4 70 5.71%
10t Deion Branch NE 66 4 70 5.71%
12t Braylon Edwards NYJ 62 4 66 6.06%
12t Derrick Mason BLT 62 4 66 6.06%
14 Austin Collie IND 58 4 62 6.45%
15 Andre Johnson HST 86 6 92 6.52%
Things weren’t all good, and now we’re getting into dropping some criticism on players. While he may be as scary a deep threat as there is in the league, a one-dimensional player like DeSean Jackson never really scores that highly in our grading. You can attribute some of that to his league-leading 19.67% of drops on catchable balls – this Eagle is your vintage boom or bust receiver.
It’s more of a surprise to see Steve Smith just behind him, with injury and poor quarterback play seemingly having a huge impact on Smith’s ability to play to the level we expect from him. Given his stellar performance in recent years, you wouldn’t know how much of this was Smith being bogged down by the problems in Carolina, but it’s something for potential trade partners to consider.
Other noteworthy names near the bottom include Mike Williams of Tampa Bay. The rookie impressed many so much that his peers voted him into their top 100 players of 2011, though it does come as a surprise. He did show a tremendous ability to make plays after the catch, but with 11 drops you start to realize he’s got a way to go before he’s really earned a spot as one of the top receivers.
You could levy the same charge against Steve Johnson of Buffalo, who was capable of looking the real deal one game, and then dropping five passes the next. Consistency and concentration are key attributes of guys who finish highly in these rankings, and it would be fair to say both men could do with working on those attributes to take their already impressive games to the next level.
Wide Receivers, Bottom 15 Drop Percentage, 2010
Rank Player Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %
41 Steve Smith NYG 48 6 54 11.11%
42 Santonio Holmes NYJ 61 8 69 11.59%
43 Jacoby Jones HST 51 7 58 12.07%
44 Michael Crabtree SF 55 8 63 12.70%
45 Wes Welker NE 93 14 107 13.08%
46 Brandon Marshall MIA 86 13 99 13.13%
47 Steve Johnson BUF 82 13 95 13.68%
48 Miles Austin DAL 69 11 80 13.75%
49 Jordy Nelson GB 66 11 77 14.29%
50 Steve Breaston ARZ 47 8 55 14.55%
51 Mike A. Williams TB 64 11 75 14.67%
52 Pierre Garcon IND 72 13 85 15.29%
53 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 53 10 63 15.87%
54 Steve L. Smith CAR 46 10 56 17.86%
55 DeSean Jackson PHI 49 12 61 19.67%
Looking Deeper
To get a bit further into it, I’ve pulled all the data from the last three years to see who has that consistency over a longer period. The qualifying amount of catchable balls thrown goes up to 120, and the results get more interesting.
Up front, you’ve got two of the perennial favorites in this list with the aforementioned Walter and Fitzgerald showing 2010 was no fluke. Also in the top five, Vincent Jackson shows what Philip Rivers missed last year. His ability to go down the field and make tricky catches, is something that makes him one of the most in-demand receivers, even with a franchise tag on him.
Some of the other names that should be of interest are Austin Collie up in eighth, while Pierre Garcon finished sixth from bottom. They don’t play identical roles in the Colts offense, but you can put some of Peyton Manning’s 2010 struggles on the absence of Austin Collie (as well as Dallas Clark) and extra reliance on the less dependable Garcon.
Wide Receivers, Top 10 Drop Percentage, 2008-2010
Rank Player Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %
1 Kevin Walter HST 164 5 169 2.96%
2 Larry Fitzgerald ARZ 325 11 336 3.27%
3 Eddie Royal DEN 187 9 196 4.59%
4 Vincent Jackson SD 150 8 158 5.06%
5 Lance Moore NO 149 8 157 5.10%
6 Jason Avant PHI 144 8 152 5.26%
7 Anquan Boldin BLT 258 15 273 5.49%
8 Austin Collie IND 135 8 143 5.59%
9 Michael Jenkins ATL 152 10 162 6.17%
10 Derrick Mason BLT 232 16 248 6.45%
Meanwhile down at the bottom you’ve got some pretty big names competing for title of “worst hands” over the past three years. It tells you about the improvements of Edwards that even though he finished just outside the Top 10 in 2010, he finished at the bottom of the three-year rankings (by and large due to those incredible 19 drops in 2008).
Wide Receivers, Bottom 10 Drop Percentage, 2008-2010
Rank Player Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %
36 Santana Moss WAS 242 29 271 10.70%
37 Brandon Marshall MIA 291 37 328 11.28%
38 Nate Washington TEN 136 18 154 11.69%
39 Marques Colston NO 220 30 250 12.00%
40 Pierre Garcon IND 144 20 164 12.20%
41 DeSean Jackson PHI 187 26 213 12.21%
42 Randy Moss MIN 185 26 211 12.32%
43 Terrell Owens CIN 196 28 224 12.50%
44 Dwayne Bowe KC 205 33 238 13.87%
45 Braylon Edwards NYJ 168 29 197 14.72%
So there you have it. The numbers show some steadily good (like Walter and Fitzgerald), some steadily not-so (like Jackson), and
even some capable of a huge turnaround (like Edwards). While none of it makes Walter flatly more valuable than the deep threat that is Jackson, maybe a bit more credit is due for the Texan and his role in their offense. Either way, more grist for the mill.