Can Maclin dethrone DeSean? (1 Viewer)

[massraider]

If you would have told me in January, that by May, DeSean Jackson would be undervalued I wouldn't have believed you, but it appears to be the case.

Seriously. Is it his size, is that the problem? If he was 6'2", 215, would he get more respect?

 

[travdogg]

If you would have told me in January, that by May, DeSean Jackson would be undervalued I wouldn't have believed you, but it appears to be the case.

Seriously. Is it his size, is that the problem? If he was 6'2", 215, would he get more respect?

That's the main reason it seems, that and a lot of "well if you take away this big play" reasoning. I hate that kind of logic.For what its worth Jackson is only about an inch shorter and 10 pounds less than Isaac Bruce and Marvin Harrison were.

 

[footballsavvy]

Philly Target Distribution last year:

1) Jackson -118

2) RB - 115

3) Celek -112

4) Maclin - 90

Looks like he should worry more about being the #3 option before thinking about being #1...Also, the two games Kolb started, Maclin was tied with Curtis as the fifth most targeted Eagle behind Jackson, Celek, Avant, and the RBs total....and Curtis only played in one of those games.

You are aware that he was a rookie, right? And wasn't he dinged up as well? He played 15 games but it seems like there were some early exits. And we should point out that the two games Kolb started were Maclin's 2nd and 3rd games of his pro career.On to the original question...

An absolute #### ton of people here are drinking heavy doses of the DeSean kool-aid. They all seem to think he will not only continue his ridiculous pace of long touchdowns, but also get more red zone targets. He only caught 8 more balls than the injured rookie. In my mind, there is absolutely no question who the value pick is here. I don't even know their respective ADP's yet, but I can guarantee you that there will be a significant disparity. Maclin could very easily outproduce DeSean this year, but even if he doesn't, it will likely be closer than most are expecting. Maclin will be the clear FF value play here.

So the short answer is yes. He could unseat DeSean. 63 catches isn't really setting the bar very high.

DeSean is a poor man's Steve Smith (Carolina). He's a talent but he was actually targeted less last year than his rookie year. That is disturbing. His production was outstanding, but to expect a repeat is just foolish. It's like expecting J.Charles to continue his second half pace from last year through the 2010 season. Not going to happen. DeSean will need a lot more targets to justify his draft position. Given his decline in targets last year, that's hard to predict. Why didn't the coaching staff call his number more? The new qb makes the situation hard to guess, too. But given a normal progression for Maclin (and a healthy season) and a regression to the norm for DeSean and it appears Maclin is the guy to own.

FWIW, I'll be avoiding DeSean this year (in part, due to his likely cost) and targeting Maclin along with Steve Smith and maybe Greg Jennings and/or Ochocinco. I think they will all outplay their ADP, but that's just a guess as APD's are unknown at this point. Someone on Chicago is going to blow up, too.

There's a few flaws in the thinking starting with the bolded part. First off, not that "poor" - he is virtually the same guy. Statistically, over his first two seasons, DeSean has actually been better - his # of receptions his higher, TDs are higher and YPC are higher. Calling him a poor man's S. Smith is underselling him in the Philly offense. The comparison to J. Charles is just silly. Charles is a guy who in two years hadn't been able to work his way on the field for significant playing time despite being in the league for that long. DJax was a highly drafted rookie who has seen playing time and made an impact since day 1. We also have two seasons of production to look at as DeSean's body of work, vs. half a season from Charles.

Finally, suggesting he will "regress to the norm" seems a bit odd. It's not like DeSean Jackson is a seven year vet (like Steve Smith) for whom we have a base line. My point is, going forward we don't know what DeSean's "norm" is going to be. In fact it's possible his norm will be 80-1200-10. I'm not saying that's definately the case - but to discount a WR going into his 3rd season (yeah, I know it's cliche) as ready to "regress to the norm" may be a bit premature.

What he means is that maintaining almost 19 YPC and 1 TD every 7 receptions is simply not going to happen. So either his targets will have to go up significantly, or his fantasy stats will regress. Personally, I have been seeking out Maclin at value. He appeared to be the more well rounded receiver (though still possessing 4.3 speed), with DeSean being the dynamic playmaker - which will result in spotty fantasy usefulness as time goes on.

 

[PahtyTom]

I'd predict Maclin with more catches, yards

Desean more big plays

Desean maybe slight edge in TDs

 

[SSOG]

Well, it's possible people can believe anything. Lots of people are stupid. I'm not calling anyone stupid here, but if you want to get literal, yes anything is possible. Excellent point

So... a WR finishes 4th in his second year, and now you're saying you'd have to be stupid think he could possibly finish 7th in his third year?

DeSean is a WR. You listed off 1300/10 as if those are his receiving numbers, but he really put up 63/1167/9 as a WR. Of course those rushing numbers counted last year, but when trying to predict next year's numbers I'm not going to expect a 67 yard TD from a reverse. Just as I'm not going to expect him to repeat his record breaking number of 50+ yard TD catches.

I'm not arguing that he isn't talented. I'm just saying he's got a new QB and he was VERY productive with only 63 receptions last year. Expecting more of the same or, in some cases, an improvement is likely wishful thinking.

First off, Desean had 100 rushing yards his first season, and 130 rushing yards his second season, so ignoring his rushing totals seems silly. It's possible lots of people think you should project him just on his receiving numbers. Lots of people are stupid. I'm not calling anyone stupid here, but if you want to get literal, yes anything is possible.Second, even if you want to completely ignore the fact that he's put up 100+ rushing yards in every season he's ever played, you can't ignore the fact that the team keeps giving him carries. You keep harping on the fact that he only had 63 receptions last year. Well, he had 63 receptions AND ELEVEN CARRIES. Those carries show that the Eagles wanted to get him involved in the offense. Even if you pretend that he's not going to get rushing yardage next year because he's a WR and the Eagles are going to suddenly decide to stop doing what works, you can't ignore his total touches and only look at receptions. Last year, Desean was a 74 touch WR. The year before, he had 79.

Also, for what it's worth, when a receiver posts 1300 yards from scrimmage IN HIS SECOND YEAR, I don't think expecting more than 63 receptions qualifies as "wishful thinking".

And for the record, you need to read more carefully. I never said it was impossible for DeSean to be a top 7 WR. I said he should not be the 7th WR drafted. There are more than 6 WR out there with greater chances for success than DeSean. Hey, maybe that 1 in a million happens and he beats all his records last year and rushes for 2 TD from reverses and he's the #1 WR. Would I be wrong? No. We are dealing with probability here. There is quite a bit of chance involved in football. DeSean was on the good end of it last year. Betting on that to repeat is very risky.

You said it was impossible for someone to think Desean was worth a top-7 WR pick. If someone thinks he'll finish as a top-7 WR, then it's possible for that person to think he's worth a top-7 WR pick. Your distinction is totally irrelevant. There are more than 6 WRs out there with greater chances than Desean... IN YOUR OPINION. Some people will disagree. You might have noticed that when you're doing a fantasy draft, some of your leaguemates make picks that you wouldn't have made. This is because- now brace yourself, because this might be a bit shocking- everybody has a different set of rankings. Maybe in someone's rankings, there AREN'T more than 6 WRs with a greater chance of putting up 1300 yards from scrimmage. Or maybe someone thinks there are more than 6 WRs with a greater chance, but that person is trying to swing for the fences and he thinks that no other WR in the league has as good of a chance of putting up 1600 YFS and a dozen scores and single-handedly winning a title.Desean was on the good side of chance IN YOUR OPINION. Someone else could have the opinion that he was on the bad side of chance- after all, he missed a game, and how often do you think he's going to finish a game with just 1 yard from scrimmage? How often will a WR playing that well finish the season with just 63 catches? Someone who thought he was on the bad side of chance last year would be no more correct or incorrect than you. Unless someone has a scientific chance-o-meter that measures the precise amount of luck surrounding Desean Jackson, there's no way to know whether he was lucky or unlucky. Yet you still imply that anyone who thinks differently than you is stupid.

At the end of the day, I totally get where you're coming from. Desean set an NFL record for 60+ yard TDs. That's not likely to get repeated. On the other hand, I understand where the Desean supporters are coming from. Desean posted 1300 yards from scrimmage and was fantasy WR4 in just his second season in the league. That demonstrates that he's an elite talent. The only difference is that I've never seen any Desean supporters saying that your position was impossible to believe, or implying that anyone who shared your opinion was stupid. In other words, while both sides have presented perfectly valid and well-supported opinions, one side has done it in a decidedly more toolish manner.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

Well, it's possible people can believe anything. Lots of people are stupid. I'm not calling anyone stupid here, but if you want to get literal, yes anything is possible. Excellent point

So... a WR finishes 4th in his second year, and now you're saying you'd have to be stupid think he could possibly finish 7th in his third year?

I love DeSean, but in what format did he finish as the #4 WR?

 

[TheWheel]

This offense is going to a lot more within 0 to 20 yards rather than 10 to 30 of McNabbs day. I expect completions and catches to go up a lot. That said Jacksons catches should go up but his yards will probably stay around the same (+\- 100 yards). And you had better throw all of those target numbers out. If Kolb has any consistency (something McNabb never had), this offense is going to be totally different. Here should be Kolbs priority:

1a. Jackson

1b. Maclin

1c. Celek

1d. McCoy

2. Avant

3. Weaver

I wouldn't even put to much stock in Kolb's prior starts as he wasn't gameplanned around. And I also expect Kolb to take advantage of all the skill he has around him--he shall spread the ball around. This is of course barring injury or extreme inconsistency.

 

[We Tigers]

Well, it's possible people can believe anything. Lots of people are stupid. I'm not calling anyone stupid here, but if you want to get literal, yes anything is possible. Excellent point

So... a WR finishes 4th in his second year, and now you're saying you'd have to be stupid think he could possibly finish 7th in his third year?

I love DeSean, but in what format did he finish as the #4 WR?

Erm...standard scoring? Top 5 was AJ, Moss, Austin, DeSean, and Fitz. He had 1304 total yards and 10 TDs for 190 fantasy points. If you leave out his 137 yds rushing and his rushing TD, then he drops a few spots.

 

[travdogg]

Well, it's possible people can believe anything. Lots of people are stupid. I'm not calling anyone stupid here, but if you want to get literal, yes anything is possible. Excellent point

So... a WR finishes 4th in his second year, and now you're saying you'd have to be stupid think he could possibly finish 7th in his third year?

I love DeSean, but in what format did he finish as the #4 WR?

Erm...standard scoring? Top 5 was AJ, Moss, Austin, DeSean, and Fitz. He had 1304 total yards and 10 TDs for 190 fantasy points. If you leave out his 137 yds rushing and his rushing TD, then he drops a few spots.

He was the #2 WR in PPG. In fact, he was only .1 points per game behind AJ for the #1 spot.Also, he had 12 TD's if you count returns.

 

[SSOG]

Instead of wasting my time reading all of that, I'll just bump this thread when he doesn't finish in the top 10.

That definitely meshes perfectly with my claim that both sides are presenting legitimate arguments, but one side is presenting them in a decidedly more toolish manner.

Well, it's possible people can believe anything. Lots of people are stupid. I'm not calling anyone stupid here, but if you want to get literal, yes anything is possible. Excellent point

So... a WR finishes 4th in his second year, and now you're saying you'd have to be stupid think he could possibly finish 7th in his third year?

I love DeSean, but in what format did he finish as the #4 WR?

FBG's scoring: 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 points per TD rushing/receivinghttp://subscribers.footballguys.com/player...cal-wr-2009.php

If you were in a league that counted his punt return scores as 6 points, too, then he jumped up to 3rd, just 2 points behind Randy, and 1st overall in points per game.

 

[renesauz]

If you would have told me in January, that by May, DeSean Jackson would be undervalued I wouldn't have believed you, but it appears to be the case.

Seriously. Is it his size, is that the problem? If he was 6'2", 215, would he get more respect?

That's the main reason it seems, that and a lot of "well if you take away this big play" reasoning. I hate that kind of logic.For what its worth Jackson is only about an inch shorter and 10 pounds less than Isaac Bruce and Marvin Harrison were.

travdogg - just because a few of us are not absolutely giddy over him like everyone else does not mean he's undervalued. Like I've told others, try to draft him. Just like Tebow, it only takes 1 team.

And no one is saying, take one play away. What we're saying is that he set a record for long TD's. To expect a fantasy repeat, you are going to need him to repeat a record breaking year OR get a lot more targets. Given the drastic shakeup at QB and loads of top talent to compete with, I just think it is hard to expect any sort of repeat. The original question was COULD Maclin dethrone DeSean. Yes, it is possible. Every QB is different. Kolb could develop chemistry with Maclin who had a short camp last year, injuries, started season as a backup, and came from a college spread offense. Yet he was just 8 receptions behind DeSean. It is not unthinkable that the shakeup could produce a new WR1 in Philly. Given the disparity in ADP, I think Maclin is well worth the gamble while WR7 is too high a price for a low reception guy with a new QB. High risk/medium reward - not that his stats can't be solid, but getting what you paid for is only a medium reward.

Props to footballsavy for wrapping it up. 19 ypc and 1TD/7rec is difficult to match. I'm also not sure how many WR put up 3 straight 100 yard rushing seasons.

So, bottom line... I would think that everyone would like to draft guys with decent floors and high ceilings. I feel like a guy with a team high 118 targets (not a lot, about 25th), 19ypc, 1TD/7rec, 11/137/1 rushing, and a long TD record breaking season has likely reached his ceiling in his current situation. Add to that a team chock full of receiving talent and a coach who likes to spread it around and a new QB and there's just not enough to warrant WR7. Living up to that ADP is possible but not probable.

I think this is pretty well stated. I have severe man-love for Desean Jackson...even wear his jersey on game-days, but WR7 seems a bit high to me too. Whether Maclin catches him or not almost doesn't matter...Maclin is by far the better value right now.

 

[H.K.]

Philly Target Distribution last year:1) Jackson -1182) RB - 1153) Celek -1124) Maclin - 90 Looks like he should worry more about being the #3 option before thinking about being #1...Also, the two games Kolb started, Maclin was tied with Curtis as the fifth most targeted Eagle behind Jackson, Celek, Avant, and the RBs total....and Curtis only played in one of those games.

Update after 4 gameslayer Targets1 Jackson, DeSean 322 McCoy, LeSean 283 Celek, Brent 224 Maclin, Jeremy 205 Avant, Jason 17

 

[RUSF18]

Philly Target Distribution last year:1) Jackson -1182) RB - 1153) Celek -1124) Maclin - 90 Looks like he should worry more about being the #3 option before thinking about being #1...Also, the two games Kolb started, Maclin was tied with Curtis as the fifth most targeted Eagle behind Jackson, Celek, Avant, and the RBs total....and Curtis only played in one of those games.

Update after 4 gameslayer Targets1 Jackson, DeSean 322 McCoy, LeSean 283 Celek, Brent 224 Maclin, Jeremy 205 Avant, Jason 17

Anyway to break down Vick/Kolb targets? Thanks.

 

[H.K.]

Philly Target Distribution last year:1) Jackson -1182) RB - 1153) Celek -1124) Maclin - 90 Looks like he should worry more about being the #3 option before thinking about being #1...Also, the two games Kolb started, Maclin was tied with Curtis as the fifth most targeted Eagle behind Jackson, Celek, Avant, and the RBs total....and Curtis only played in one of those games.

Update after 4 gameslayer Targets1 Jackson, DeSean 322 McCoy, LeSean 283 Celek, Brent 224 Maclin, Jeremy 205 Avant, Jason 17

Anyway to break down Vick/Kolb targets? Thanks.

Looks like 4 targets from Kolb in about 5 quarters at first glance.

 

[Sabertooth]

Philly Target Distribution last year:1) Jackson -1182) RB - 1153) Celek -1124) Maclin - 90 Looks like he should worry more about being the #3 option before thinking about being #1...Also, the two games Kolb started, Maclin was tied with Curtis as the fifth most targeted Eagle behind Jackson, Celek, Avant, and the RBs total....and Curtis only played in one of those games.

Update after 4 gameslayer Targets1 Jackson, DeSean 322 McCoy, LeSean 283 Celek, Brent 224 Maclin, Jeremy 205 Avant, Jason 17

Anyway to break down Vick/Kolb targets? Thanks.

Yeah, go through the game logs.

 

[Grahamburn]

 

[Sabertooth]

Desean Jackson was injured. He was having an awesome game until then. Not exactly a dethroning. But I do like how Maclin has looked. I think this is probably one of the top tandems in the NFL, if not the best. Both are super explosive.

 

[Grahamburn]

Desean Jackson was injured. He was having an awesome game until then. Not exactly a dethroning. But I do like how Maclin has looked. I think this is probably one of the top tandems in the NFL, if not the best. Both are super explosive.

If you read through the thread there were several posters saying it was basically impossible for Maclin to have a better season than DeSean. Maclin was having a heck of a season before Jackson's injury, and was likely ranked higher in most leagues. This, of course, was with DeSean pulling alot of coverage his way.I'm curious how Maclin will respond to getting WR1 coverage, and hopefully WR1 target totals, this week against the Titans.

 

[FUBAR]

Desean Jackson was injured. He was having an awesome game until then. Not exactly a dethroning. But I do like how Maclin has looked. I think this is probably one of the top tandems in the NFL, if not the best. Both are super explosive.

If you read through the thread there were several posters saying it was basically impossible for Maclin to have a better season than DeSean. Maclin was having a heck of a season before Jackson's injury, and was likely ranked higher in most leagues. This, of course, was with DeSean pulling alot of coverage his way.I'm curious how Maclin will respond to getting WR1 coverage, and hopefully WR1 target totals, this week against the Titans.

I like Maclin as much as anyone, but you do realize he had 257 yards in 5 games before this week, right? not exactly lighting it up except he had 4 TDs.The last two games are indicative of future studliness.

 

[Grahamburn]

I like Maclin as much as anyone, but you do realize he had 257 yards in 5 games before this week, right? not exactly lighting it up except he had 4 TDs.The last two games are indicative of future studliness.

Yeah, I realize that. He now has 416 yards and 6 TDs after two solid games in a row with Kolb at QB. Two monster games, three average games, and one stinker. If nothing else he's been a pretty conisistent WR1 and borderline stud.Kolb seems comfortable throwing the ball to him, and we know the Eagles will continue to run their offense through the passing game.If the second half Sunday is indicative of what we can expect with Maclin as the WR1 for the Eagles I'm

 

[ThePittbully]

Philly Target Distribution last year:1) Jackson -1182) RB - 1153) Celek -1124) Maclin - 90 Looks like he should worry more about being the #3 option before thinking about being #1...Also, the two games Kolb started, Maclin was tied with Curtis as the fifth most targeted Eagle behind Jackson, Celek, Avant, and the RBs total....and Curtis only played in one of those games.

First he was a rookie, second that's a bit misleading because most of those targets are from McNabb. I could be wrong but I think Maclin has been much more heavily targeted when Kolb has been in THIS season

 

[CalBear]

What he means is that maintaining almost 19 YPC and 1 TD every 7 receptions is simply not going to happen.

Mid-season update: Jackson has 21.5 YPC after tonight, and 1 TD every 5.6 receptions. (Plus over 9 YPC and a TD). Five of his six TDs have been over 30 yards; three are over 40 and two are over 60.Some guys score a lot of long TDs because they're really great players.Maclin looks like a good value pick, too.

 

[Late225]

I love Desean, but to have only two catches in this "historic game" - that was a little disappointing - especially after his first catch was the first play of the game.

 

[Rick James]

Player A has scored 98 fantasy points this year.

Player B has scored 98 fantasy points this year.

Player A was drafted at 2.12

Player B was drafted at 7.06

which player was the better pick?

 

[Sabertooth]

I don't know, Desean is a pretty darn good player. They appear to both be very good options.

 

[renesauz]

I love Desean, but to have only two catches in this "historic game" - that was a little disappointing - especially after his first catch was the first play of the game.

Philly spent most of the second half running the ball. How many passes did Vick throw? I don't know the number off the top of my head, but it was not many. How many catches can a guy aquire when his team is scoring concistantly on 50 yard+++ plays???????????IN the end, Vick's passing yards weren't impressive for the total, but for the incredible efficiancy throwing coupled with multiple electric plays running.

 

[3nOut]

If the draft were held today, DeSean would be taken first and much higher than Maclin. Maclin is just very good value but the perception of each is very different. If you were to ask, "Is he a must-start every week?", you'd say 'yes' for DJax and 'no' for Maclin. I have Maclin on my roster but am debating this myself even though they are both ranked 8th in my league (tied) and are both performing as WR1s.

 

[CalBear]

If the draft were held today, DeSean would be taken first and much higher than Maclin. Maclin is just very good value but the perception of each is very different. If you were to ask, "Is he a must-start every week?", you'd say 'yes' for DJax and 'no' for Maclin. I have Maclin on my roster but am debating this myself even though they are both ranked 8th in my league (tied) and are both performing as WR1s.

Remember, Desean missed one game and most of another. (Not to say Maclin hasn't been productive.)

 

[Late225]

I love Desean, but to have only two catches in this "historic game" - that was a little disappointing - especially after his first catch was the first play of the game.

Philly spent most of the second half running the ball. How many passes did Vick throw? I don't know the number off the top of my head, but it was not many. How many catches can a guy aquire when his team is scoring concistantly on 50 yard+++ plays???????????IN the end, Vick's passing yards weren't impressive for the total, but for the incredible efficiancy throwing coupled with multiple electric plays running.

More than 2.

 

[Sigfawn]

Well, before everyone departs for the offseason, how do you guys feel about this situation? Currently in non-ppr, non-return leagues DeSean is at 152.8 pts and Maclin is at 150.6.As many predicted, DeSean did indeed get his 100/1 rushing this year. I bet against that and him repeating 19 ypr. He instead has a 23 ypr pace as of right now. But Maclin did supercede him in receptions 64 to 48 and rec TDs 10 to 6.So what's the conclusion? What to expect next year? I guess that depends on where Vick goes, but I expect he'll stay in Philly.

Both great WRs to have. Philly passes so much I don't think you can go wrong with either.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

With Vick in town, Maclin is quietly a solid contributer to a fantasy team where DeSean gets a lot of the hype for his awesome play making ability.

If I had to pick between the two, I would take DeSean Jackson although Maclin may be the better value where you can get him in a fantasy draft.

FWIW, I like Maclin more this week.

 

[TheWheel]

Honestly they are 1a and 1b. If you key on one, the other will break you. Maclin doesn't have the speed of Jackson (who does) but is still really fast. Assuming D.Jax stays here (im not sold that the Eagles will pay him what he wants) I see their ADPs converging over time.