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Can Terrell Owens remain a Top 10 FF WR? (1 Viewer)

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norgay

Footballguy
In my PPR league Owens is the 7th best WR through the first 5 weeks (both PPG and total points scored). I have him as my WR3 and am trying to decide if he is a sell high or solid piece for a title run. I haven't seen a single Bengals game, but from looking at the box scores through the first 5 weeks things look pretty good:

Targ. Recep. Yds./Recep. TDs

NE 13 7 7.6 0

BAL 11 3 19.0 0

CAR 9 4 10.5 0

CLE 12 10 22.2 1

TB 15 7 14.6 1

So, it looks like he is consistently seeing many targets (practically double digits every week).

I was hoping people who watched the games had thoughts on whether this is sustainable. Is Ocho Cinco on the decline or should he produce more at TO's expense? Is Palmer reliable enough at QB for this production to continue? Were the last two TDs a fluke or is TO getting more red zone targets?

Are there any other issues I missed?

 
I think it's possible, tho a drop-off of some degree is certainly likely. That said, I'd be surprised if the Bengals continue to throw 40 times a game, so you have to expect his targets to drop a bit with a return to the mean and also a more even split with Ocho. Still, I bet he sees a consistent 8-9 targets per game ( instead of 12 ), which should keep him in the top-15, imho.

I think Palmer is on the decline but that shouldn't overly affect the routes Owens runs. His TDs were both long ( 70-something and 40-something ) with lots of run after the catch. I don't know that the Bengals have been getting into the redzone much, tho the FBG have stats you can look up to see how much attention Owens is getting there.

Fwiw, I just traded him packaged with Colston and Barber for Randy Moss, Reggie Bush and Nate Washington. I think his value is about as high as it will get ( well, maybe next week after his bye, tho he will be further down the standings, then ), so I shopped him aggressively this week while he's still leading the league in targets.

 
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I think he has supplanted Ocho in that offense. He is the #1, the Batman and as long as Ocho Cinco is on the field with him I think that limits the double teams he will face. The wild card in all of this is Carson Palmer.

I think T.O is a solid #2 WR the rest of the way though with a low end #1 WR being his ceiling.

 
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Sell.

At this stage in his career I'd get out on T.O. if anybody's buying high. He's just not worth the risk of blowup when it matters most.

 
I tried to package him with Vernon Davis for Larry Fitz.

No dice. The Fitz owner said he had no interest in T.O.

His age makes him hard to trade. At this point I'm just happy he's producing.

 
TO is the 6th highest targeted WR with 46 targets, 5th highest in yards at 474, and 7th in receptions at 31. I say buy.

 
I am buying, or holding in my case as I own him. In preseason Palmer targetted Owens a lot and there are enough receiving options around him to keep teams honest on covering him. Plus even at his advanced age the guy has got some talent.

 
I dealt for him this week.

Bowe + BJGE + 2nd round pick (both Bowe and BJGE will be RFAs next off-season in my league)

Neither Bowe (my WR5) or BJGE (my RB4) would've started for me anyway.

TO becomes my WR4 behind Nicks, Fitz, Calvin.

I think he's a viable FF WR for the rest of this season for sure, and will be serviceable at worst next season. I also think holding onto him at the end of his career is OK, he won't play a truly diminished role, he'll just quit & retire. At least then you can drop him and move on with confidence. I know some people had Torry Holt on their roster until this year, and he hasn't been relevant since 07/08, he just wouldn't quit and people were reluctant to cut weight.

 
davearm said:
bushisdaman said:
trader jake said:
Sell.At this stage in his career I'd get out on T.O. if anybody's buying high. He's just not worth the risk of blowup when it matters most.
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Well the most I have been offered for T.O. so far is Donald Driver and Tim Hightower. Pass
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I had the Driver owner tell me he wouldn't trade Driver for TO straight up.
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Well I turned it down and it was a 2 for 1 offer with him offering Driver and Hightower for T.O., I also own Greg Jennings though and he owned Finely and Rogers at the time. He was trying to sort out bye weeks and upgrade his WR at the same time. I didnt take the offer though. I would rather have T.O. than Driver. Hightower has since been cut to waivers in my league. It just wasnt enough IMO.
 
A few good arguments were raised here. I, for one, don't care about his age since my league is a redraft. Clearly, in dynasty leagues this is an issue.

As an Owens holder the thing that concerns me most is that TO in the Cinci. offense is like a lit match over a keg of gun powder. If the losses pile up, if Ochocinco starts to demand the ball more (like he did when Housh surpassed his production for a few wees running), or if defenses start to key in on TO, the thing could blow. And if it does, his targets have nowhere to do but down.

Problem is, he's currently producing like a WR1 (he'll probably out-produce Fitz for the rest of the year) and yet I don't know that you could even get a WR2 for him right now which makes him tough to sell...

 
Some things to consider

TO has been getting single coverage, this could change leading to Ocho getting the targets

Weather could make games less pass friendly

Wondering if I can offer Knownshon and TO for AJ or Fitz to the 1-4 team in our league, TO is on bye so prob can't make that offer this week

 
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ffguru56 said:
davearm said:
ffguru56 said:
TO is the 6th highest targeted WR with 46 targets, 5th highest in yards at 474, and 7th in receptions at 31. I say buy.
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TO is actually the highest targeted player in the NFL, with 61 in 5 weeks.
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Where are you seeing this? My source was ESPN (http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_...eceivingTargets)
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Not sure what source he was using, but Footballguys has TO leading the league with 60 targets.
 
Runningman said:
I am buying, or holding in my case as I own him. In preseason Palmer targetted Owens a lot and there are enough receiving options around him to keep teams honest on covering him. Plus even at his advanced age the guy has got some talent.
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I bought this week because Mark Clayton was my wr 2 with MSW a disappointing 3rd. I feel like I did ok getting Peyton Hillis and Owens for Bradshaw. A bit of a downgrade at rb but a decent bump up ( at least i hope so) at wr.
 
I think TO should be just fine for the rest of the season. He does lead the league in targets and has had only one game with less than ten targets (9). I think things may slow down for him a bit once someone else playing across from him complains about not getting the ball. Or the most likely scenario, teams start to shift their priority to defending TO rather than Ocho, which is not unimaginable. Can both of them be successful? Right now it doesn't seem like it which most Cinci fans were hoping for. I think its possible but they really need to get their act together.

I think Palmer is the real issue here but a change at QB right now might not fix a thing. Its funny because I had just got offered TO or Mike Williams(TB) in a trade. At first I was like TO! But who knows when that ship over there will sink. I like to think TO will be fine, the whole situation is a bit shaky but I have some confidence he will remain at least near the top ten.

 
Sleeperz said:
I think TO should be just fine for the rest of the season. He does lead the league in targets and has had only one game with less than ten targets (9). I think things may slow down for him a bit once someone else playing across from him complains about not getting the ball. Or the most likely scenario, teams start to shift their priority to defending TO rather than Ocho, which is not unimaginable. Can both of them be successful? Right now it doesn't seem like it which most Cinci fans were hoping for. I think its possible but they really need to get their act together.

I think Palmer is the real issue here but a change at QB right now might not fix a thing. Its funny because I had just got offered TO or Mike Williams(TB) in a trade. At first I was like TO! But who knows when that ship over there will sink. I like to think TO will be fine, the whole situation is a bit shaky but I have some confidence he will remain at least near the top ten.
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Interesting. Someone just offered me Mike Williams (TB) for TO. Maybe a number of people are looking at them as roughly equal value right now.
 
footballnerd said:
Some things to considerTO has been getting single coverage, this could change leading to Ocho getting the targetsWeather could make games less pass friendlyWondering if I can offer Knownshon and TO for AJ or Fitz to the 1-4 team in our league, TO is on bye so prob can't make that offer this week
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That deal is a huge insult. Moreno just coming off an injury and playing the Jets D, is not the ideal "sell high" time. TO has looked good so far, but that deal is just horrible for a stud like Andre or Fitz. In any format.
 
fishmang86 said:
footballnerd said:
Some things to considerTO has been getting single coverage, this could change leading to Ocho getting the targetsWeather could make games less pass friendlyWondering if I can offer Knownshon and TO for AJ or Fitz to the 1-4 team in our league, TO is on bye so prob can't make that offer this week
Click to expand...
That deal is a huge insult. Moreno just coming off an injury and playing the Jets D, is not the ideal "sell high" time. TO has looked good so far, but that deal is just horrible for a stud like Andre or Fitz. In any format.
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For AJ, I agree. But for Fitz, why? In a redraft league you don't get paid for potential, you just get paid on this year's stats. Fitz is in a horrible situation. TO has solidly outperformed Fitz so far, and given Fitz' situation, why wouldnt that outperformance continue?
 
In my league T.O. and Ryan Torain for Randy Moss was just completed. Non PPR.

I dont see T.O. getting the same number of targets the rest of the way. He leads the league now, but most likely wont finish in the top 10 come season end. The Bengals will run more as throwing 40 times a games with Carson is just not a winning strategy. The targets with Ocho will start to even out also.

T.O. had two long plays to pad his stats. He should be solid in PPR leagues with underneath routes and getting 5 or 6 catches a game, but anyone looking for top #1 wr performance will be dissapointed. I project he will end up 18-30 among wr at year end. Still a great value for where he was drafted.

 
I would be willing to sell high or buy low on TO. If someone was showing me a true WR1 or RB1, I'd package TO up and ship him off easily. That said, if the TO owner is desperate to "sell high" on him, I'd be willing to buy at WR3 prices.

 
norgay said:
Sleeperz said:
I think TO should be just fine for the rest of the season. He does lead the league in targets and has had only one game with less than ten targets (9). I think things may slow down for him a bit once someone else playing across from him complains about not getting the ball. Or the most likely scenario, teams start to shift their priority to defending TO rather than Ocho, which is not unimaginable. Can both of them be successful? Right now it doesn't seem like it which most Cinci fans were hoping for. I think its possible but they really need to get their act together.

I think Palmer is the real issue here but a change at QB right now might not fix a thing. Its funny because I had just got offered TO or Mike Williams(TB) in a trade. At first I was like TO! But who knows when that ship over there will sink. I like to think TO will be fine, the whole situation is a bit shaky but I have some confidence he will remain at least near the top ten.
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Interesting. Someone just offered me Mike Williams (TB) for TO. Maybe a number of people are looking at them as roughly equal value right now.
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Seems to be that way for the most part. Williams has huge upside, easier schedule and a QB that loves to throw to him. Downside is experience and lack of a running game where defenses can key on him to shut him down. Thing is, I think he is capable of much more than what we are seeing. TO has a proven track record and can still beat a defense apparently. Although Palmer is not anywhere near an elite QB, he is getting the ball to TO regularly. TO has the advantage of having good players around him to take the pressure off and is getting open often. It is just the looming feeling that this wont continue all season and the offense implodes. Its not like the offense isn't putting points on the board. They currently are ranked 15th overall in scoring. Hell even if he loses 3-4 targets a game, he could still be counted on as a low WR2 with upside. Do people really think he is going to drop off the face of the earth after this week? Right now its one of the few things that IS working for them.
 
I own TO in a 10-teamer that starts 3 WRs. I'm scared as hell to use the guy except to cover bye weeks. He's had 2 big weeks, but otherwise garbage. There is a 0% chance TO finishes top-10, I'd be shocked at top-20. Palmer is one of the bottom-10 QBs in the league at this point.

I've tried to trade TO, but nobody sees him as even a WR2. If you can get WR2 value, take it.

 
norgay said:
As an Owens holder the thing that concerns me most is that TO in the Cinci. offense is like a lit match over a keg of gun powder. If the losses pile up, if Ochocinco starts to demand the ball more (like he did when Housh surpassed his production for a few wees running), or if defenses start to key in on TO, the thing could blow. And if it does, his targets have nowhere to do but down.
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I wouldn't be concerned about losses affecting TO this year. He was a model citizen last season on an absolutely bad Buffalo team. Also, the Bengals have lost the last two games that their opponents focused coverage on Ocho. Not to say that teams want TO putting up 100 yards and a score on them, but he's not as dynamic a player as Ocho is currently, and is a lower-percentage threat to leave singled or against the #2 DB. I think teams will continue to do that since it appears to be a winning formula.TO's getting tons of targets, which somewhat offsets his terrible QB. I don't think he'll be top 10, but I think he's a good start most weeks and will finish in the 15-20 range--and, at this point, ahead of Ocho.
 
Not to say that teams want TO putting up 100 yards and a score on them,
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first of all, i hate this construct. its makes no sense. "not to say" or "not to mention" but then you say it. anyway, bengals have lost for different reasons, but a wr catching 63% of his targets, 17 catches, 304 yards and 2 tds over 2 games is not the reason.
 
fishmang86 said:
footballnerd said:
Some things to considerTO has been getting single coverage, this could change leading to Ocho getting the targetsWeather could make games less pass friendlyWondering if I can offer Knownshon and TO for AJ or Fitz to the 1-4 team in our league, TO is on bye so prob can't make that offer this week
Click to expand...
That deal is a huge insult. Moreno just coming off an injury and playing the Jets D, is not the ideal "sell high" time. TO has looked good so far, but that deal is just horrible for a stud like Andre or Fitz. In any format.
Click to expand...
After my offer got rejected the first time, the AJ owner just offered me AJ and Hightower for TO and Moreno. I love bye weeks. :shrug:
 
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