Paper Tiger
Footballguy
I am extremely high on both DeAngelo Willams and Jonathan Stewart this year. And in a 12 team redraft, .5 per reception league, I am seriously contemplating aiming for both of those guys as my starting RB combo. Thoughts?
What's their ADP? ... Stewart specifically. For dynasty owners that have both I think starting both has appeal, but my guess is you would have to overpay to get both in redraft.I am extremely high on both DeAngelo Willams and Jonathan Stewart this year. And in a 12 team redraft, .5 per reception league, I am seriously contemplating aiming for both of those guys as my starting RB combo. Thoughts?
How can you expect them to improve?-->A) I fully expect the Panthers running game to improve from last year. Injuries to Gross and Otah forced together an inexperienced line. Also, Matt Moore seems to be a definite upgrade over Delhomme, which will help extend drives and lead to more plays.
AllVolUT spelled it out quite nicely already, but to go over it again...In 2008, DWill and JStew combined for 432 fantasy points.In 2009, DWill and JStew combined for 372 fantasy points... but DeAngelo missed 3 games. Assuming you started a decent RB3 (RB30 in points per game = 9.2 points per game) you would have gotten an extra 28 points, bringing you to 400 even.Now, are 432 and 400 points decent point totals for an RB corps to produce? Last year, RB6+RB18 (i.e. "average RB1 + average RB2") produced 394 points. In 2008, RB6+RB18 produced 400 fantasy points. In both seasons, Williams + Stewart would have outproduced an average starting RB combo.Now, there are unique risks to starting two RBs from the same team. You're going to get a higher variance- you're much more likely for both RBs to boom or bust in the same game, which will create larger point swings compared to two RBs from different teams. You'll also have bye week issues, which can be good or bad (you're only hurt for one week instead of two, but you're hurt much more on that one week). On the other hand, you also have a lot more injury insurance with this plan. If you had Thomas Jones and Matt Forte last year (RB6 + RB18), then had Jones gotten injured it's not like Forte would have picked up the slack any. With Williams/Stewart, though, if one player gets injured than the other player's production will increase to help fill the void.All in all, I think starting both Carolina backs is a very viable strategy, especially in total point leagues (although still fine in H2H leagues- just don't under any circumstances do it in a survivor league). Any additional risk you assume on a week-to-week basis is more than mitigated by the extra injury insurance you're carrying. It's not the highest-upside play on the planet (there's little chance of both RBs finishing in the top 12), but if you're drafting Williams and Stewart in the 1st and 4th, I think it presents fantastic value.I wouldn't mind owning either one or both of them. But I definitely wouldn't want them both as my starters. There's just too much risk there. Take a look at last season. Using pretty standard scoring (10yds = 1 TD = 6):JStew had 6 games where he scored <5 points (7 games where he scored <7)DW missed 3 games and had 4 games where he scored <7 pointsThere were only 3 games last season where they both scored >10 pointsIf you can own both of them, great. Handcuffing is usually a good idea, but do not make the mistake of relying on them as your two starters.
The loss of Delhomme will cause the entire Carolina offense to improve. For starters, the team's rushing TDs dropped from 30 to 18 last year because Carolina's offense couldn't score anymore. The yardage remained remarkably consistent, though (2400-2500 yards in both years, 4.8 team ypc in both years). I could see Carolina putting up 2400 yards and 22-24 rushing TDs next year. Not a huge improvement, but it's not like they need any improvement- Stewart and Williams would have been an above-average RB tandem in each of the last two seasons already.How can you expect them to improve? --They were 2nd in the NFL in total rushing attempts (behind only NYJ)--They were 2nd in the NFL in yards/carry (behind only Tenn, i.e. Chris Johnson)--They scored 18 rushing TDs, only 4 behind the NFL leading Ravens and Dolphins with 22.Seriously, how much better can they get? If anything, as good as they are (and I love both guys), I'd EXPECT them to actually regress a small amount even though it's POSSIBLE to improve. And, any improvement is likely going to be minimal.
30 rushing TDs is a tremendous amount. I'm NOT arguing that they wouldn't make a solid combo. I'm simply stating that expecting them to improve is probably unlikely. If they do, it's going to be by a minimal amount. I agree they don't need any improvement and I'd argue that it would be very unlikely to have any sort of significant decrease either. Of all teams, this may be the easiest to project their numbers because they should continue at their very solid level.AllVolUT spelled it out quite nicely already, but to go over it again...In 2008, DWill and JStew combined for 432 fantasy points.In 2009, DWill and JStew combined for 372 fantasy points... but DeAngelo missed 3 games. Assuming you started a decent RB3 (RB30 in points per game = 9.2 points per game) you would have gotten an extra 28 points, bringing you to 400 even.Now, are 432 and 400 points decent point totals for an RB corps to produce? Last year, RB6+RB18 (i.e. "average RB1 + average RB2") produced 394 points. In 2008, RB6+RB18 produced 400 fantasy points. In both seasons, Williams + Stewart would have outproduced an average starting RB combo.Now, there are unique risks to starting two RBs from the same team. You're going to get a higher variance- you're much more likely for both RBs to boom or bust in the same game, which will create larger point swings compared to two RBs from different teams. You'll also have bye week issues, which can be good or bad (you're only hurt for one week instead of two, but you're hurt much more on that one week). On the other hand, you also have a lot more injury insurance with this plan. If you had Thomas Jones and Matt Forte last year (RB6 + RB18), then had Jones gotten injured it's not like Forte would have picked up the slack any. With Williams/Stewart, though, if one player gets injured than the other player's production will increase to help fill the void.All in all, I think starting both Carolina backs is a very viable strategy, especially in total point leagues (although still fine in H2H leagues- just don't under any circumstances do it in a survivor league). Any additional risk you assume on a week-to-week basis is more than mitigated by the extra injury insurance you're carrying. It's not the highest-upside play on the planet (there's little chance of both RBs finishing in the top 12), but if you're drafting Williams and Stewart in the 1st and 4th, I think it presents fantastic value.I wouldn't mind owning either one or both of them. But I definitely wouldn't want them both as my starters. There's just too much risk there. Take a look at last season. Using pretty standard scoring (10yds = 1 TD = 6):JStew had 6 games where he scored <5 points (7 games where he scored <7)DW missed 3 games and had 4 games where he scored <7 pointsThere were only 3 games last season where they both scored >10 pointsIf you can own both of them, great. Handcuffing is usually a good idea, but do not make the mistake of relying on them as your two starters.The loss of Delhomme will cause the entire Carolina offense to improve. For starters, the team's rushing TDs dropped from 30 to 18 last year because Carolina's offense couldn't score anymore. The yardage remained remarkably consistent, though (2400-2500 yards in both years, 4.8 team ypc in both years). I could see Carolina putting up 2400 yards and 22-24 rushing TDs next year. Not a huge improvement, but it's not like they need any improvement- Stewart and Williams would have been an above-average RB tandem in each of the last two seasons already.How can you expect them to improve? --They were 2nd in the NFL in total rushing attempts (behind only NYJ)--They were 2nd in the NFL in yards/carry (behind only Tenn, i.e. Chris Johnson)--They scored 18 rushing TDs, only 4 behind the NFL leading Ravens and Dolphins with 22.Seriously, how much better can they get? If anything, as good as they are (and I love both guys), I'd EXPECT them to actually regress a small amount even though it's POSSIBLE to improve. And, any improvement is likely going to be minimal.
They did have a lot of rushing attempts and a very good ypc, however I don't see a real reason for them to regress other than the idea of 'regression to the mean'. I expect their line to be better. I expect their QB play to be better. I expect their schedule to be a little easier. They did score a lot of TDs on the ground last year, but they also scored 30 TDs on the ground the year before last. I do not expect a regression on the number of rushing TDs.I'm not expecting an astronomical rise in rushing production, but instead, maybe a slight uptick in production. Even without a rise in production, I like this strategy because I think it's safer than some alternative options.How can you expect them to improve?-->A) I fully expect the Panthers running game to improve from last year. Injuries to Gross and Otah forced together an inexperienced line. Also, Matt Moore seems to be a definite upgrade over Delhomme, which will help extend drives and lead to more plays.
--They were 2nd in the NFL in total rushing attempts (behind only NYJ)
--They were 2nd in the NFL in yards/carry (behind only Tenn, i.e. Chris Johnson)
--They scored 18 rushing TDs, only 4 behind the NFL leading Ravens and Dolphins with 22.
Seriously, how much better can they get? If anything, as good as they are (and I love both guys), I'd EXPECT them to actually regress a small amount even though it's POSSIBLE to improve. And, any improvement is likely going to be minimal.
Nice post SSOG. I agree entirely.AllVolUT spelled it out quite nicely already, but to go over it again...In 2008, DWill and JStew combined for 432 fantasy points.In 2009, DWill and JStew combined for 372 fantasy points... but DeAngelo missed 3 games. Assuming you started a decent RB3 (RB30 in points per game = 9.2 points per game) you would have gotten an extra 28 points, bringing you to 400 even.Now, are 432 and 400 points decent point totals for an RB corps to produce? Last year, RB6+RB18 (i.e. "average RB1 + average RB2") produced 394 points. In 2008, RB6+RB18 produced 400 fantasy points. In both seasons, Williams + Stewart would have outproduced an average starting RB combo.Now, there are unique risks to starting two RBs from the same team. You're going to get a higher variance- you're much more likely for both RBs to boom or bust in the same game, which will create larger point swings compared to two RBs from different teams. You'll also have bye week issues, which can be good or bad (you're only hurt for one week instead of two, but you're hurt much more on that one week). On the other hand, you also have a lot more injury insurance with this plan. If you had Thomas Jones and Matt Forte last year (RB6 + RB18), then had Jones gotten injured it's not like Forte would have picked up the slack any. With Williams/Stewart, though, if one player gets injured than the other player's production will increase to help fill the void.All in all, I think starting both Carolina backs is a very viable strategy, especially in total point leagues (although still fine in H2H leagues- just don't under any circumstances do it in a survivor league). Any additional risk you assume on a week-to-week basis is more than mitigated by the extra injury insurance you're carrying. It's not the highest-upside play on the planet (there's little chance of both RBs finishing in the top 12), but if you're drafting Williams and Stewart in the 1st and 4th, I think it presents fantastic value.I wouldn't mind owning either one or both of them. But I definitely wouldn't want them both as my starters. There's just too much risk there. Take a look at last season. Using pretty standard scoring (10yds = 1 TD = 6):JStew had 6 games where he scored <5 points (7 games where he scored <7)DW missed 3 games and had 4 games where he scored <7 pointsThere were only 3 games last season where they both scored >10 pointsIf you can own both of them, great. Handcuffing is usually a good idea, but do not make the mistake of relying on them as your two starters.The loss of Delhomme will cause the entire Carolina offense to improve. For starters, the team's rushing TDs dropped from 30 to 18 last year because Carolina's offense couldn't score anymore. The yardage remained remarkably consistent, though (2400-2500 yards in both years, 4.8 team ypc in both years). I could see Carolina putting up 2400 yards and 22-24 rushing TDs next year. Not a huge improvement, but it's not like they need any improvement- Stewart and Williams would have been an above-average RB tandem in each of the last two seasons already.How can you expect them to improve? --They were 2nd in the NFL in total rushing attempts (behind only NYJ)--They were 2nd in the NFL in yards/carry (behind only Tenn, i.e. Chris Johnson)--They scored 18 rushing TDs, only 4 behind the NFL leading Ravens and Dolphins with 22.Seriously, how much better can they get? If anything, as good as they are (and I love both guys), I'd EXPECT them to actually regress a small amount even though it's POSSIBLE to improve. And, any improvement is likely going to be minimal.
The problem is they are too expensive to handcuff in re-draft. Someone is always going to take Stewart higher than what someone wanting him as a handcuff would. If you are paying RB2 prices for a guy as a handcuff, you're doing it wrong.I think they are both over-valued relative to the risk. The risk to Williams is that Stewart gets a 50-50 share. The risk to Stewart is that he doesn't. You are likely going to miss on one and hit on one if you draft them both at their ADP. I'd rather pick one of the two and pair with another team's RB. That way I have a chance of hitting on both.I wouldn't mind owning either one or both of them. But I definitely wouldn't want them both as my starters. There's just too much risk there. Take a look at last season. Using pretty standard scoring (10yds = 1 TD = 6):JStew had 6 games where he scored <5 points (7 games where he scored <7)DW missed 3 games and had 4 games where he scored <7 pointsThere were only 3 games last season where they both scored >10 pointsIf you can own both of them, great. Handcuffing is usually a good idea, but do not make the mistake of relying on them as your two starters.
Stewart is not a handcuff. A handcuff is a player that is basically useless unless there is an injury to the starter ahead of him. Javon Ringer behind Chris Johnson, Anthony Dixon behind Frank Gore, and Rashard Jennings behind MJD are handcuffs. Stewart is starting caliber RB in fantasy. You state that the risk for Williams is that Stewart gets a 50-50 share. If you own Stewart as well, then that is no risk at all. If they both stay healthy, you likely have two low RB1/high RB2 players. If one gets hurt, the other almost automatically becomes a top 5 player at the position. Assuming you have at least a decent 3rd RB, then a top 5 RB plus whoever you plug in should be more than sufficient. The odds are low, as SSOG said, that both are top 12 options. The benefit though is that it is highly unlikely they bust. You either get two running backs putting up very good points, or you get one putting up amazing points. There is something to be said for that level of security.Mr.Underhill said:The problem is they are too expensive to handcuff in re-draft. Someone is always going to take Stewart higher than what someone wanting him as a handcuff would. If you are paying RB2 prices for a guy as a handcuff, you're doing it wrong.I think they are both over-valued relative to the risk. The risk to Williams is that Stewart gets a 50-50 share. The risk to Stewart is that he doesn't. You are likely going to miss on one and hit on one if you draft them both at their ADP. I'd rather pick one of the two and pair with another team's RB. That way I have a chance of hitting on both.I wouldn't mind owning either one or both of them. But I definitely wouldn't want them both as my starters. There's just too much risk there. Take a look at last season. Using pretty standard scoring (10yds = 1 TD = 6):
JStew had 6 games where he scored <5 points (7 games where he scored <7)
DW missed 3 games and had 4 games where he scored <7 points
There were only 3 games last season where they both scored >10 points
If you can own both of them, great. Handcuffing is usually a good idea, but do not make the mistake of relying on them as your two starters.
People rarely expect regression to the mean, yet it still happens. AP went from 5.6 YPC as a rookie, to 4.8 in his 2nd year, to 4.4 last year. And I think we all recognize that his QB play was substantially better in '09 vs '08.They did have a lot of rushing attempts and a very good ypc, however I don't see a real reason for them to regress other than the idea of 'regression to the mean'. I expect their line to be better. I expect their QB play to be better. I expect their schedule to be a little easier. They did score a lot of TDs on the ground last year, but they also scored 30 TDs on the ground the year before last. I do not expect a regression on the number of rushing TDs.I'm not expecting an astronomical rise in rushing production, but instead, maybe a slight uptick in production. Even without a rise in production, I like this strategy because I think it's safer than some alternative options.
Apples to Dump Trucks. Stephen Davis and DeSean Foster didn't have two straight seasons where both RBs put up top-24 fantasy finishes. Stewart/Williams do. Stephen Davis and DeSean Foster didn't have a season where both rushed for 1,000+ yards. Stewart/Williams do. In fact, last year DeAngelo set a record for the most rushing yards ever by a team's second-leading rusher.This isn't a garden-variety situation. The only time I can remember where two RBs from the same team were both going in the first 5 rounds was Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson... and that was a backfield combo that would have won a lot of people championships when all was said and done.A few years ago owning Stephen Davis and DeSean Foster looked like a good idea too.There just isn't enough historical support for taking two guys in the same backfield to use as starters IMO.3'
how about just the fact that stephen davis and, in particular desean foster, were never as talented as williams and stewart.Apples to Dump Trucks. Stephen Davis and DeSean Foster didn't have two straight seasons where both RBs put up top-24 fantasy finishes. Stewart/Williams do. Stephen Davis and DeSean Foster didn't have a season where both rushed for 1,000+ yards. Stewart/Williams do. In fact, last year DeAngelo set a record for the most rushing yards ever by a team's second-leading rusher.This isn't a garden-variety situation. The only time I can remember where two RBs from the same team were both going in the first 5 rounds was Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson... and that was a backfield combo that would have won a lot of people championships when all was said and done.A few years ago owning Stephen Davis and DeSean Foster looked like a good idea too.There just isn't enough historical support for taking two guys in the same backfield to use as starters IMO.3'
But you don't get two RB's putting up very good points. Stewart was 20th in PPG in my league last year. Williams was 8th. They were 15th and 16 respectively in total points. Unless you're in a 16 team league, you have both your RB1 and your RB2 as bottom-half of their tiers in terms of PPG or you have two mid-tier RB2's as your RB1 and RB2 in terms of total points. Since when is having two average RB's a good plan for building a championship team?If my top back is 8th in PPG, I hope my RB2 is doing better than freakin' 20th. If that's the way it's going, someone in my league, or several teams, are outdistancing me in points at RB. Which means I've dug myself a whole at RB that I have to offset at WR and/or QB.Stewart is not a handcuff. A handcuff is a player that is basically useless unless there is an injury to the starter ahead of him. Javon Ringer behind Chris Johnson, Anthony Dixon behind Frank Gore, and Rashard Jennings behind MJD are handcuffs. Stewart is starting caliber RB in fantasy. You state that the risk for Williams is that Stewart gets a 50-50 share. If you own Stewart as well, then that is no risk at all. If they both stay healthy, you likely have two low RB1/high RB2 players. If one gets hurt, the other almost automatically becomes a top 5 player at the position. Assuming you have at least a decent 3rd RB, then a top 5 RB plus whoever you plug in should be more than sufficient. The odds are low, as SSOG said, that both are top 12 options. The benefit though is that it is highly unlikely they bust. You either get two running backs putting up very good points, or you get one putting up amazing points. There is something to be said for that level of security.Mr.Underhill said:The problem is they are too expensive to handcuff in re-draft. Someone is always going to take Stewart higher than what someone wanting him as a handcuff would. If you are paying RB2 prices for a guy as a handcuff, you're doing it wrong.I think they are both over-valued relative to the risk. The risk to Williams is that Stewart gets a 50-50 share. The risk to Stewart is that he doesn't. You are likely going to miss on one and hit on one if you draft them both at their ADP. I'd rather pick one of the two and pair with another team's RB. That way I have a chance of hitting on both.I wouldn't mind owning either one or both of them. But I definitely wouldn't want them both as my starters. There's just too much risk there. Take a look at last season. Using pretty standard scoring (10yds = 1 TD = 6):
JStew had 6 games where he scored <5 points (7 games where he scored <7)
DW missed 3 games and had 4 games where he scored <7 points
There were only 3 games last season where they both scored >10 points
If you can own both of them, great. Handcuffing is usually a good idea, but do not make the mistake of relying on them as your two starters.
If you do this, IMO, you're costing yourself points. Think about it. We know what Stewart can do in the Carolina RBBC, rush for 1000-1100 yards and around 10 TDs. If Williams gets hurt, Stewart will likely become a top 10 (maybe top 5 FF RB). However, for that to happen, you would lose your first round pick! That's not a good thing.Part of this strategy is that I could draft a really good WR and Qb, and still be able to grab JStew. The draft I am referring to trying this, I am picking 12th in a 12 teamer. It's not a lock that I am going to do this. But I certainly appreciate all of the supporting-nonsupporting feedback so far.
The link you posted shows Stewart as RB19 on a FP/quarter basis. Unless I'm reading it wrong.Also, a more interesting metric would be FP/snap.Before the ankle injury (i.e., through 12 weeks last season), Williams was RB5.
He was RB8 on the season on a FP/quarter basis; Stewart was RB26.
Oops, thanks. Not sure where I got 26 from.Michael Fox said:The link you posted shows Stewart as RB19 on a FP/quarter basis. Unless I'm reading it wrong.Also, a more interesting metric would be FP/snap.Chase Stuart said:Before the ankle injury (i.e., through 12 weeks last season), Williams was RB5.
He was RB8 on the season on a FP/quarter basis; Stewart was RB26.![]()
I think that's the key. If you go into the draft with the intention of going with this combo, you're probably going to overpay for either Williams or Stewart. If, on the other hand, you draft Williams because he's presents the best value... and then later in the draft look at the board and realize that the highest rated player left is Stewart... well, then, grab Stewart. Don't let worries about starting two teammates scare you from taking the best player available.But I would only intentionally go this route if it meant I could pick up 2 high quality WRs before drafting Stewart, or in the right format, a stud WR and difference making QB. This will probably be an average RB duo, so you'll have out-perform elsewhere to win it.
Agreed. If you can get one (or better yet, both) Carolina RBs at good value, then do it. If, however, you decided ahead of time to grab both, and you reach on one (or both) to do so, you will cost yourself at other positions. In that case, I think it's a bad strategy.I think that's the key. If you go into the draft with the intention of going with this combo, you're probably going to overpay for either Williams or Stewart. If, on the other hand, you draft Williams because he's presents the best value... and then later in the draft look at the board and realize that the highest rated player left is Stewart... well, then, grab Stewart. Don't let worries about starting two teammates scare you from taking the best player available.But I would only intentionally go this route if it meant I could pick up 2 high quality WRs before drafting Stewart, or in the right format, a stud WR and difference making QB. This will probably be an average RB duo, so you'll have out-perform elsewhere to win it.
A couple comments...I am operating on the generally accepted definition of what a handcuff is in fantasy football. A handcuff is a player you draft behind your stud who is only relevant if that stud is injured. I would say a vast majority of the Shark Pool would agree with that definition and state that Stewart is not a handcuff because he is a starting caliber RB in his own right.But you don't get two RB's putting up very good points. Stewart was 20th in PPG in my league last year. Williams was 8th. They were 15th and 16 respectively in total points. Unless you're in a 16 team league, you have both your RB1 and your RB2 as bottom-half of their tiers in terms of PPG or you have two mid-tier RB2's as your RB1 and RB2 in terms of total points. Since when is having two average RB's a good plan for building a championship team?If my top back is 8th in PPG, I hope my RB2 is doing better than freakin' 20th. If that's the way it's going, someone in my league, or several teams, are outdistancing me in points at RB. Which means I've dug myself a whole at RB that I have to offset at WR and/or QB.Stewart is not a handcuff. A handcuff is a player that is basically useless unless there is an injury to the starter ahead of him. Javon Ringer behind Chris Johnson, Anthony Dixon behind Frank Gore, and Rashard Jennings behind MJD are handcuffs. Stewart is starting caliber RB in fantasy. You state that the risk for Williams is that Stewart gets a 50-50 share. If you own Stewart as well, then that is no risk at all. If they both stay healthy, you likely have two low RB1/high RB2 players. If one gets hurt, the other almost automatically becomes a top 5 player at the position. Assuming you have at least a decent 3rd RB, then a top 5 RB plus whoever you plug in should be more than sufficient. The odds are low, as SSOG said, that both are top 12 options. The benefit though is that it is highly unlikely they bust. You either get two running backs putting up very good points, or you get one putting up amazing points. There is something to be said for that level of security.The problem is they are too expensive to handcuff in re-draft. Someone is always going to take Stewart higher than what someone wanting him as a handcuff would. If you are paying RB2 prices for a guy as a handcuff, you're doing it wrong.I think they are both over-valued relative to the risk. The risk to Williams is that Stewart gets a 50-50 share. The risk to Stewart is that he doesn't. You are likely going to miss on one and hit on one if you draft them both at their ADP. I'd rather pick one of the two and pair with another team's RB. That way I have a chance of hitting on both.I wouldn't mind owning either one or both of them. But I definitely wouldn't want them both as my starters. There's just too much risk there. Take a look at last season. Using pretty standard scoring (10yds = 1 TD = 6):
JStew had 6 games where he scored <5 points (7 games where he scored <7)
DW missed 3 games and had 4 games where he scored <7 points
There were only 3 games last season where they both scored >10 points
If you can own both of them, great. Handcuffing is usually a good idea, but do not make the mistake of relying on them as your two starters.
And since they cannibalize each other by limiting each other's touches, Stewart only gets better at Williams's expense and vice versa. No matter how you slice it, limiting yourself to one team's running game when your competitors are tapping into two teams' running games isn't a great idea. Carolina, while a very good running team, doesn't double up the rest of the league every week in terms of running production.
Finally, I don't know what authority you have to establish the according to Hoyle definition of "handcuff". Do you have a source or citation for that? I think handcuff has more to do with for what purpose an owner drafts a player than what that player's ADP is.
But that wasn't even my argument. How is this confusing to you? Hacim said handcuffing is a good idea but starting them both is a bad idea. All I said was that you can't get Stewart as a handcuff because he is being drafted to start as a RB2. Why do you think I don't know that he's being taken as a RB2 when I said in plain black and white that he was?![]()