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Changes in retail (1 Viewer)

timschochet

Footballguy
24 Hour Fitness just declared Chapter 11. They’re going to close 132 stores. 
ATT announced today they will close 250 stores. 
 

I have been a commercial shopping center real estate agent and property manager in Southern California for 30 years. Here are my thoughts (for what they’re worth): 

1. There’s not going to be any quick economic recovery. We’ve got a lot of bad times ahead. A lot of retail jobs are going to be gone forever. COVID has accelerated a process that was already slowly taking over retail as online purchasing grew. 
 

2. There’s going to be a ton of vacancies. I mean more than we’ve seen in our lifetimes. Landlords haven’t quite felt the sting yet but they will. They’re going to have to lower rents to stay competitive. 
 

3. ANY square footage over 10,000 feet is suspect. That includes fitness, supermarkets, Department stores, electronics, etc. Tenants formerly thought of as “anchor” tenants are going to disappear. Instead of a 50,000 square foot furniture store, you’re going to end up shopping at a 2000 sf store and if what you want isn’t there, you’ll be presented with an online catalogue. Or else you can drive out of your way to an outlet. 
 

4. Customer service will be key to everything. In the past consumers chose between low prices and excellent customer service. Now the businesses that want to survive will have to provide both. 

It will be a great time to be a consumer- if you still have money to spend that is. A lot of folks won’t. 

 
24 Hour Fitness just declared Chapter 11. They’re going to close 132 stores. 
ATT announced today they will close 250 stores. 
 

I have been a commercial shopping center real estate agent and property manager in Southern California for 30 years. Here are my thoughts (for what they’re worth): 

1. There’s not going to be any quick economic recovery. We’ve got a lot of bad times ahead. A lot of retail jobs are going to be gone forever. COVID has accelerated a process that was already slowly taking over retail as online purchasing grew. 
 

2. There’s going to be a ton of vacancies. I mean more than we’ve seen in our lifetimes. Landlords haven’t quite felt the sting yet but they will. They’re going to have to lower rents to stay competitive. 
 

3. ANY square footage over 10,000 feet is suspect. That includes fitness, supermarkets, Department stores, electronics, etc. Tenants formerly thought of as “anchor” tenants are going to disappear. Instead of a 50,000 square foot furniture store, you’re going to end up shopping at a 2000 sf store and if what you want isn’t there, you’ll be presented with an online catalogue. Or else you can drive out of your way to an outlet. 
 

4. Customer service will be key to everything. In the past consumers chose between low prices and excellent customer service. Now the businesses that want to survive will have to provide both. 

It will be a great time to be a consumer- if you still have money to spend that is. A lot of folks won’t. 
Doubt it.   They'll provide the cheapest service they can that retains customers.   If there is less competition, that would tend toward worse customer service and higher prices. not the opposite.   

 
Buffet style restaurants are closing for good too.  Souplantation in SoCal for one.  
I drove past a Sizzler that had a sign that it was re-opening.  I had no idea Sizzler still existed.   I can't say I've been to one in the last 40 years.

 
Buffet style restaurants are closing for good too.  Souplantation in SoCal for one.  
Yup, I was a member of their "e-club" and was bummed to see that announcement.  Been going there since HS.  There was one fairly close to my office, and when I was dieting, it was my favorite spot to go load up.  I was hoping they'd last it through but guess the numbers just didn't add up for them.  Real shame.  

 
24/gold's going bankrupt mostly hurts vc firms.  It's not some signal of the end times.  Peleton isn't replacing that. 

The big risk which you highlight that is the problem is the sheer amount of real estate taken by retail.  Something like 8x anywhere else in the world.  Rents have to come down.  

 
Seems like this is just expediting the inevitable - online shopping was slowly going to put most retail locations out of business.
Like dumping gas on an existing fire. Automation, online options and the power of the true mega companies is going to put a major squeeze on the labor force. I can see a world where everything goes either Amazon/Walmart or locally owned craft store. I think it's the inbetweens that will really suffer. They can't compete price wise with Costco but don't have the coolness and personal touch of a neighborhood boutique. 

 
Ordering online and getting curbside delivery or no-knock food delivery is here to stay IMO. My favorite local brewery and local marijuana dispensary are now offering to go services in the store or for curbside pickup. So even though the restrictions have been lifted, they are keeping with that model. I also have seen some restaurants that have gone away from physical menus. There is a barcode on the table and when you scan it, the menu comes up on your phone. 

 
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Seems like this is just expediting the inevitable - online shopping was slowly going to put most retail locations out of business.
More but not most, depending on the industry...and at least not soon. Apparel shopping will shift aggressively to E-com....which means to 30-40%.

 
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More but not most, depending on the industry...and at least not soon. Apparel shopping will shift aggressively to E-com....which means to 30-40%.
I have a Vans t-shirt that I bought at Kohl's that I absolutely love.  Went to get another version online at Kohls.com and found one on sale (like $14), but after tax and shipping it was $25.  I got the one I have at the store for like $20 with tax, maybe less.  That extra $5 steers me away from ordering online.  I'd rather swing by my local store and buy the one I want.

My wife orders on OldNavy.com a few times a year and we get the kids some clothes/accessories from Walmart.com a lot too.  But those places don't charge a ton for shipping.

 
Survival of the fittest.  Where I live, there were/are way too many gyms.  Retail can't compete with online unless they do something special.  

 
Like dumping gas on an existing fire. Automation, online options and the power of the true mega companies is going to put a major squeeze on the labor force. I can see a world where everything goes either Amazon/Walmart or locally owned craft store. I think it's the inbetweens that will really suffer. They can't compete price wise with Costco but don't have the coolness and personal touch of a neighborhood boutique. 




The problem is most neighborhoods can't support a neighborhood boutique..  You have to a lot of population density /affluence/traffic.  I wonder if more people will move closer to city centers if retail dies off in the suburbs?  I live in the suburbs, bordering on rural areas and a lot of stores can't make it, because there isn't enough traffic.

 
The problem is most neighborhoods can't support a neighborhood boutique..  You have to a lot of population density /affluence/traffic.  I wonder if more people will move closer to city centers if retail dies off in the suburbs?  I live in the suburbs, bordering on rural areas and a lot of stores can't make it, because there isn't enough traffic.
Yeah, has to be the right kind of place in the right location. 

 
I assume gyms will come back eventually.

Do you really think grocery stores will close?  I'd guess people would rather go grocery shopping than get things delivered for the foreseeable future.

 
I assume gyms will come back eventually.

Do you really think grocery stores will close?  I'd guess people would rather go grocery shopping than get things delivered for the foreseeable future.
I, for one, like grocery shopping.  We keep a running list of things we need on our fridge, but invariably I buy 10+ items that weren't on the list when I go.  Do we really need those items?  Maybe not.  But they're consumables that eventually get consumed by one of the four in our household.  I don't think we'd ever go for the delivery or curbside thing.  Even in a pandemic.  Of course, my views on this could easily be skewed by where we live (Orange County, CA... hasn't been hit hard at all).

 
I assume gyms will come back eventually.

Do you really think grocery stores will close?  I'd guess people would rather go grocery shopping than get things delivered for the foreseeable future.
Not at all. But I think the news ones will be smaller, more like Trader Joe’s size  than your traditional market. 

 
Not at all. But I think the news ones will be smaller, more like Trader Joe’s size  than your traditional market. 
Maybe. But there are so many items not sold at a smaller store. I guess some smaller stores could specialize in produce or meats or baked goods or whatever.  Ironically, that’s were we started.

 
Not just retail.. Our company has two large office buildings right next to each other. With as well as working from home is doing, they are looking to close/sell one of the buildings to reduce costs. I think a lot of companies are going to start questioning whether the cost of office space is worth it. :mellow:  

 
4. Customer service will be key to everything. In the past consumers chose between low prices and excellent customer service. Now the businesses that want to survive will have to provide both. 
Good post. As for the above, that was true far before the pandemic. Invariably a competitor can find ways (largely via scale) to do things cheaper than you can. The bigger (and easier) source of differentiation is finding ways of driving an excellent customer experience and superior service. 

Not just retail.. Our company has two large office buildings right next to each other. With as well as working from home is doing, they are looking to close/sell one of the buildings to reduce costs. I think a lot of companies are going to start questioning whether the cost of office space is worth it. :mellow:  
I think you are right.

 
Grocery stores should be fine. Restaurants, bars definitely crushed in the short term but will be back at some point.

Stores that sell #### I can get on Amazon delivered seem like they may be in some big trouble. 

 
I prefer shopping in a physical store to online. I like to browse and talk with employees. I don’t like waiting on shipping and dealing with packages from online orders. I live in large city with lots in a short distance around me. Yet, even in my case, it’s hard to justify going to the store over online shopping. If I’m in the store, I generally check my phone for reviews and online pricing. Often the price and selection is just better online, and I’ll buy it online even if I found what I wanted in the physical store. Soon it will be difficult to justify going to the store at all even though I like doing it.

 
One of the fascinating things to come out of this crazy saga is speculating on long-term or permanent fundamental changes to our society and economy.  I think about topics like this nearly every single day, and discuss with friends, family and business colleagues all the time.  I'm a little embarrassed to admit, on some level, this is purely selfish.  I loved the Big Short and all the stories about people who recognized the CDO/RE bubble in advance and had the balls to exploit it.  I know there are smart people out there who are looking at larger trends and consequences and putting themselves in position to be prepared for what's to come.  I'd be very wary right now entering into any sort of long-term commitment, such as a long commercial lease or business arrangement.  In my city, the residential real estate market is crazy - like, show up the first day and be prepared to offer way over asking price if you want the house crazy.  I told a friend yesterday, not having a crystal ball, but I think I'd sit on the sidelines for a while before buying in this market and committing to a 30 year mortgage.

As for retail, there's no doubt that covid has exposed and hastened the demise of marginal businesses, for better or worse. Some of the longer-term trends, like moving to online over in-person sales in many industries, seem inevitable.  There are probably many others that are less apparent.  I'd be interested in some discussion about those.

 
Ordering online and getting curbside delivery or no-knock food delivery is here to stay IMO. My favorite local brewery and local marijuana dispensary are now offering to go services in the store or for curbside pickup. So even though the restrictions have been lifted, they are keeping with that model. I also have seen some restaurants that have gone away from physical menus. There is a barcode on the table and when you scan it, the menu comes up on your phone. 
Every server at Cheesecake Factory has their own unique barcide that can upload a menu to a phone if customer doesn't want normal menu.   They also sanitize each menu every time it's used.  

 
If I’m in the store, I generally check my phone for reviews and online pricing. Often the price and selection is just better online, and I’ll buy it online even if I found what I wanted in the physical store.
It’s called ‘showrooming’...and is driving more consistency in retail pricing and discounting between traditional and E-com retailers. And driving aggression in loyalty programs like Kohls Cash.

 
I drove past a Sizzler that had a sign that it was re-opening.  I had no idea Sizzler still existed.   I can't say I've been to one in the last 40 years.
There is one near me but Its not very good and I have not been in for years myself.  When I first moved to this area (15 years ago?) I was surprised it was there!

Yup, I was a member of their "e-club" and was bummed to see that announcement.  Been going there since HS.  There was one fairly close to my office, and when I was dieting, it was my favorite spot to go load up.  I was hoping they'd last it through but guess the numbers just didn't add up for them.  Real shame.  
EX-Wife and Daughter love that place.  They were bummed.

 
Great question. 
 

This is pure speculation on my part but the answer is yes if it is spectacular. There are still some large shopping centers that are a family event to go there- almost the equivalent of going to an amusement park. That will work in the future- though much better once we have a vaccine for COVID and crowds no longer make people nervous. 
 

But the older, inside malls? I think they’re mostly dead ducks. 

 
Retail banking locations among the mega-banks will be slashed as well which will contribute to the commercial RE issues. But like the move to online retail, the move to online banking was already inevitable as well and just put into overdrive due to COVID.

I do think smaller banks and credit unions, etc. will be okay though. They really differentiate with their customer service levels and their flexibility/pricing as they often don't have the same regulations and overlays that big banks have.

 
Retail banking locations among the mega-banks will be slashed as well which will contribute to the commercial RE issues. But like the move to online retail, the move to online banking was already inevitable as well and just put into overdrive due to COVID.

I do think smaller banks and credit unions, etc. will be okay though. They really differentiate with their customer service levels and their flexibility/pricing as they often don't have the same regulations and overlays that big banks have.
Although they will decline, I have a hard time seeing them "slashed".  Surveys have generally shown that people like a branch nearby even if they don't go there often.  Branches will be smaller though certainly.

 
I envision it being regional, with more rural and outer suburban areas completely withering away in the long run. There will be some affluent city cores of high paid workers that could support boutique shops and higher end stores, and then walmarts and dollar trees for everything else. The rust belt will eventually spread to everywhere more than 40 miles from a major city. US shoppers don't want to pay as much extra as required for things made in the US, and US employers don't want to pay factory workers and the types of jobs that are typically in these regions a living wage. It is a race to the bottom, decreasing pay leads to decreasing the quality of goods that people could afford (aka cheap crap from China), which leads to less jobs and less pay, which leads to...

 
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Although they will decline, I have a hard time seeing them "slashed".  Surveys have generally shown that people like a branch nearby even if they don't go there often.  Branches will be smaller though certainly.
They will always keep some physical locations across geographically diverse areas. And big banks will continue to expand their location numbers in areas they don't already have a footprint. Consumers had been slow to adopt online and mobile banking but the usage rates have skyrocketed in the last few months. In areas where they've already saturated with retail locations, many of the big banks already had plans to start cutting back and consolidating locations so this will just accelerate that. If the WFH movement continues, urban cores will probably see the biggest reductions in locations.

 
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Not just retail.. Our company has two large office buildings right next to each other. With as well as working from home is doing, they are looking to close/sell one of the buildings to reduce costs. I think a lot of companies are going to start questioning whether the cost of office space is worth it. :mellow:  
Totally agree.  Our company is discussing  how much office space is needed at our corporate headquarters in Chicago.  Headquarters is spread out over a few buildings or floors of buildings in and around the city.   Leases will not be renewed since many folks are able to work from home and those that need to report to office space are combined into fewer buildings. 

Less office space has a domino effect on the economy.   Less gas for the commute.  Less wear and tear on cars so less car purchases or use of public trans.   Less employees for public trans. Less maintenance on vehicles and public trans vehicles and equipment.  Less supplies for the maintenance.  Less manufacturing of parts for public trans equipment and personal vehicles.  Less business clothes and shoes purchased.  Less lunches at restaurants near offices.   

Seems like the economy is going to drag for years even if a second wave of C19 never happens.  The world has changed.  

 
Totally agree.  Our company is discussing  how much office space is needed at our corporate headquarters in Chicago.  Headquarters is spread out over a few buildings or floors of buildings in and around the city.   Leases will not be renewed since many folks are able to work from home and those that need to report to office space are combined into fewer buildings. 

Less office space has a domino effect on the economy.   Less gas for the commute.  Less wear and tear on cars so less car purchases or use of public trans.   Less employees for public trans. Less maintenance on vehicles and public trans vehicles and equipment.  Less supplies for the maintenance.  Less manufacturing of parts for public trans equipment and personal vehicles.  Less business clothes and shoes purchased.  Less lunches at restaurants near offices.   

Seems like the economy is going to drag for years even if a second wave of C19 never happens.  The world has changed.  
I work for a Fortune 100 company - I'm beginning to fear that I will never go back to an office again.  At least, as long as I'm still part of the company.  We are already closed for all of 2020.

 
Totally agree.  Our company is discussing  how much office space is needed at our corporate headquarters in Chicago.  Headquarters is spread out over a few buildings or floors of buildings in and around the city.   Leases will not be renewed since many folks are able to work from home and those that need to report to office space are combined into fewer buildings. 

Less office space has a domino effect on the economy.   Less gas for the commute.  Less wear and tear on cars so less car purchases or use of public trans.   Less employees for public trans. Less maintenance on vehicles and public trans vehicles and equipment.  Less supplies for the maintenance.  Less manufacturing of parts for public trans equipment and personal vehicles.  Less business clothes and shoes purchased.  Less lunches at restaurants near offices.   

Seems like the economy is going to drag for years even if a second wave of C19 never happens.  The world has changed.  
I work for a Fortune 100 company - I'm beginning to fear that I will never go back to an office again.  At least, as long as I'm still part of the company.  We are already closed for all of 2020.
:yes:  

Our company is in a "Return sometime after Labor day" for most workers...

I am on the Microsoft 365 team supporting Teams, SharePoint Exchange, etc. and since all of the systems and data are online, there isn't a real need for us to be in the office...
So could easily see them having us work from home for the rest of the year and then revisit it then on if we really need to be there..

 
Didn't feel like starting a new thread so will post this here. I understand the concept of promotions and lost leaders, but at what point is constantly using that strategy just plain bad business? There is a national store chain right next to me that rotates some items available on deep discounts. The one I will mention here is Tide detergent. Their regular price admittedly is overpriced, but every few weeks they will put it on sale for about half price.

However, they also mail out circulars with paper coupons, offer additional digital coupons, mail out rewards program member discount coupons, offer instant rewards bucks to use on the purchase, and also award additional extra rewards dollars to use on another purchase. And they let you combine all of those. Sometimes they limit the quantity you can purchase at a time, but you can rinse and repeat all of that every day of the promotion.

Bottom line, I have "purchased" a ton of Tide for basically nothing. (Tide is the only detergent my wife will allow for laundry.) With a bunch of kids now living out of the house, I get a bunch extra and give them away to them as well. I haven't really kept track over the past few years, but I have used all the various coupons to the tune of $1,000+ worth of Tide. My wife is concerned they are going to ban me for abusing their promotions (is that even possible)?

Sure, I doubt many other people will do what I do (and worse go back multiple times). And I get that most people will purchase other things in the store. But who "eats" the loss in this scenario? The store? The manufacturer? The consumers (have to charge more for everything else to make up for losing money)?

 
gump said:
It’s called ‘showrooming’...and is driving more consistency in retail pricing and discounting between traditional and E-com retailers. And driving aggression in loyalty programs like Kohls Cash.
Probably some sort of in store purchase discount tactic will be employed too.

There are some things (particularly more expensive items) I'm not comfortable buying without having a chance to try them out first. That can't be done online. I'm concerned that brick and mortars being eliminated is going to make buying such things a frustrating experience if it goes that way.

 
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sports_fan said:
I prefer shopping in a physical store to online. I like to browse and talk with employees.
When you can find one. 

Usually they're all gathered in the front/back of the store shooting the shlt. Amazed how Best Buy physical stores stay open. Live in one of the most populous cities in the country and frequent likely the most popular of their stores in the city and there's always more employees than customers (before COVID as well). Fry's Electronics here is another. Enormous store and there's always more employees than customers. And again, you never seem to be able to find an employee to answer any questions.

 
I have a Vans t-shirt that I bought at Kohl's that I absolutely love.  Went to get another version online at Kohls.com and found one on sale (like $14), but after tax and shipping it was $25.  I got the one I have at the store for like $20 with tax, maybe less.  That extra $5 steers me away from ordering online.  I'd rather swing by my local store and buy the one I want.

My wife orders on OldNavy.com a few times a year and we get the kids some clothes/accessories from Walmart.com a lot too.  But those places don't charge a ton for shipping.
Kohl's has free shipping over $75.

https://www.kohls.com/ecom/shipping/75_ShippingUPDATED_nodates_bopus.html

 
Not just retail.. Our company has two large office buildings right next to each other. With as well as working from home is doing, they are looking to close/sell one of the buildings to reduce costs. I think a lot of companies are going to start questioning whether the cost of office space is worth it. :mellow:  
And they are right to do so. Most of us office drones can just as easily work.at home.

 
24 Hour Fitness just declared Chapter 11. They’re going to close 132 stores. 
ATT announced today they will close 250 stores. 
 

I have been a commercial shopping center real estate agent and property manager in Southern California for 30 years. Here are my thoughts (for what they’re worth): 

1. There’s not going to be any quick economic recovery. We’ve got a lot of bad times ahead. A lot of retail jobs are going to be gone forever. COVID has accelerated a process that was already slowly taking over retail as online purchasing grew. 
 

2. There’s going to be a ton of vacancies. I mean more than we’ve seen in our lifetimes. Landlords haven’t quite felt the sting yet but they will. They’re going to have to lower rents to stay competitive. 
 

3. ANY square footage over 10,000 feet is suspect. That includes fitness, supermarkets, Department stores, electronics, etc. Tenants formerly thought of as “anchor” tenants are going to disappear. Instead of a 50,000 square foot furniture store, you’re going to end up shopping at a 2000 sf store and if what you want isn’t there, you’ll be presented with an online catalogue. Or else you can drive out of your way to an outlet. 
 

4. Customer service will be key to everything. In the past consumers chose between low prices and excellent customer service. Now the businesses that want to survive will have to provide both. 

It will be a great time to be a consumer- if you still have money to spend that is. A lot of folks won’t. 
Tim, I agree with all of your points.  I deal with the grocery end more (wholesaler), and it has trended this way for years.  Here are the big boys - Wal-Mart, Target, Meijer.  The regional stores bought themselves an extension with the pandemic, while the independant are withering away since they have no real buying power.   My problem is you can't deal with the big boys at store level, so I really need the independants.    

Online shopping services will continue to grow, especially if people are working from home.  Most of my small accounts are down 50% since march.  I don't see how they come back.  Bars/restaurants will take a year to come back.  I also bartend for corporate events and weddings, that is a nightmare until next year.  

Cash is king, it'll be a big buyers market this holiday season.

 
I know there are smart people out there who are looking at larger trends and consequences and putting themselves in position to be prepared for what's to come.  I'd be very wary right now entering into any sort of long-term commitment, such as a long commercial lease or business arrangement.  In my city, the residential real estate market is crazy - like, show up the first day and be prepared to offer way over asking price if you want the house crazy.  I told a friend yesterday, not having a crystal ball, but I think I'd sit on the sidelines for a while before buying in this market and committing to a 30 year mortgage.
I thought real estate was a house of cards BEFORE the pandemic.  There is absolutely no way this is sustainable.  

She recently got a better job and paid off her car, so she had been looking at properties with an agent.  I basically pleaded with her to chill out- we are in the middle of a pandemic, who knows what the job market will look like in a year or two.  To me we’re at the tail end of a bubble preceding a serious depression.

Some of these realtors make a living off filling the buyer’s head with rationalizations for buying right now.  I remember mentioning to this guy back in February how covid19 could affect the economy and he more or less shrugged it off.  Then 20 million people lost their jobs. 

She made an offer on a house that got declined.  By that point I more or less begged her to stop looking, to stop putting herself in a position to emotionally attach herself to a house.  To just please wait a year or two.  Sure enough she kept looking and made another offer on a different house, which they turned down initially.  She was in tears that she didn’t get the house, this property that didn’t exist in her brain until she went out and looked at it.  Then they turned around and accepted her offer. 

It’s probably a subject for a different thread but it really burns me that I’ve spent years saving money and investing and waiting for the right time.  It was supposed to be a decision we made together.  I don’t feel a sense of ownership with the house at all. Then I see talk of renters getting wiped out, savings rates in the trashcan, massive unemployment lines, serious talk about the dollar losing its ‘exorbitant privilege.’   Only a matter of time til this hits homeowners and real estate markets.  

There is some silver lining here- we’ve spent about 40k just renting the past few years.  At least now we’re settled into a place where we can really invest time and energy.  It is a cool property.  It just seems like a decision made for an era that is coming to an end.  I should probably just get over it.  

Sorry to sidetrack thread, but I agree, I think it’s historically bad timing to buy a house right now. 

 
Eh, I'm one of those shoppers that goes for one thing at a time quite a bit.  I honestly don't need $75 worth of crap at Kohl's.  I just want one shirt.  :)
Not me. Back before the end times I would go to Kohl's a couple times a year and just load up on khakis, polos, jeans, t-shirts, etc. Not a fan of clothes shopping. Get it done in one of the 30% off days and earn that Kohl's cash.

 
@timschochet  I've been wondering about this.  In general, how are landlords handling tenets that had to close temporarily or has otherwise been severely impacted by COVID-19?  Is the expectation that they will continue to pay rent regardless?  Are landlords forgiving rent?  And they trying to work out arrangements to get them to pay up later? I'm sure different landlords are handling things differently but I guess I'm curious what you think it most common.

 

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