Chester Taylor Projection This Week vs Bears (1 Viewer)

[Islander]

Chester Taylor's projection this week on the road against the Bears is much higher than I anticipated. C Taylor's average this year is 14.2 and Dodds projects 15.9 this week. Am I missing something? I don't see any notable Bears defensive players on the injury report. M Brown is out, but that's not news. And C Taylor is not the healthiest guy around at this time of the year, he's questionable, and so is Hutch. I fully expect Taylor and Hutch to play, but how can you expect Taylor to beat his average on the road against the Bears?

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Because the Bears run D is overrated and has been exposed by teams patient enough to test them.

 

[Islander]

Because the Bears run D is overrated and has been exposed by teams patient enough to test them.

Not true. While the Bears have not played great in all 11 games, no defense does. Last week the Pats were patient but were not very successful (34 rushes 85 yds, 2.5 ypc). Being patient with the run does not necessarily result in success against the Bears D.We are talking expected values and averages here, we are not talking about what's possible and what's not possible. Everything is possible.If C Taylor's average this year is 14.2, I don't see why he would be projected 12% higher on the road vs the Bears. The Bears don't have a below average defense.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Over the course of the whole season the Bears are depressing fantasy totals by RB's by 9.9% (source: FFToday strength of schedule article). So they are slightly above average against fantasy RB's. The fact that everyone seems to think they are the best run D around is ba

Projections are not an exact science. They are educated guesses. The reason Taylor is projected higher than his season average is that he's projected for a TD. If he isn't projected for that TD, he gets less than 10 points, which is below his season average. But they have him scoring a TD. TD's are hard to predict and are worth a lot of points. If you want exact projections, you should be projecting partial TD's, as some sites do. This site does not. So, are you quibbling about the yardage totals, or the TD projection?

 

[Islander]

Over the course of the whole season the Bears are depressing fantasy totals by RB's by 9.9% (source: FFToday strength of schedule article). So they are slightly above average against fantasy RB's. The fact that everyone seems to think they are the best run D around is baProjections are not an exact science. They are educated guesses. The reason Taylor is projected higher than his season average is that he's projected for a TD. If he isn't projected for that TD, he gets less than 10 points, which is below his season average. But they have him scoring a TD. TD's are hard to predict and are worth a lot of points. If you want exact projections, you should be projecting partial TD's, as some sites do. This site does not. So, are you quibbling about the yardage totals, or the TD projection?

Minus 10% vs average sounds about right for the Bears D. I don't understand what you are talking about regarding partial TDs. FBG does project partial TDs and this is exactly what C Taylor is getting (0.6 TD rushing, 0.1 TD receiving). He's not given credit for 1.0 TD this week.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

Being a Viking fan, I would reccomend that the Bears put 9 in the box and stop Chester and let Brad Johnson try and beat you. The Vikings lean on Chester and if they just focus on him, then this game will be easy for the Bears. I am not expecting big things from Chester this week.

On a side note, the Vikings have stopped (or reduced greatly) their passing to Chester. They did it a couple times last week (with success) but most of the time for a screen pass they bring in Mewelde (hello Mr. Predictability!!). I don't get it. I like Mewelde but if you are going to run Chester into the ground, you might as well pass him the ball occasionally instead of just handing it off to him.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

this post has an interesting point in the first part , or so i thought.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=291875

 

[Islander]

this post has an interesting point in the first part , or so i thought.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=291875

Yes, this is interesting. I had missed it. Thanks for posting.