chester taylor ? (1 Viewer)

[mozzy84]

Editor's note: As the Vikings prepare to report to training camp, we look at some of the key issues facing the team. Today's question: Can the running game carry the offense?

Since leading the NFL in rushing in 2003, the Vikings have spent the past two seasons mostly running in place, but that might be about to change.

Coming off an offseason in which they signed all-pro guard Steve Hutchinson away from Seattle and promising young running back Chester Taylor from Baltimore, the Vikings' ground game appears ready to take off this fall.

With no Randy Moss or Daunte Culpepper, it also seems poised to supplant the team's formerly high-powered passing game for top billing in the team's new West Coast offense coach Brad Childress brought with him from Philadelphia.

The main reason for those high hopes is the addition of Hutchinson, a three-time Pro Bowl selection for the NFC-champion Seahawks, whose March 20 signing to a seven-year, $49 million contract sent shock waves through the NFL.

That happens to be the richest deal in league history for a guard, but the Vikings believed it was worth the cost to pry the transition free agent loose from Seattle and instantly upgrade one of the team's weakest areas.

With four-time Pro Bowl center Matt Birk back after sitting out last season following hip surgery and Bryant McKinnie at tackle, Hutchinson makes the left side of the Vikings' line one of the most formidable in the NFL. His new linemates spent the offseason minicamps salivating about what that could mean to them and the running game.

"He's as good as there is," Birk said. "Just from the little bit I know about him from some Pro Bowls and around the league, he's a quality guy, too. When people were asking me about the deal he signed, I said if anybody's worth that kind of money, he is. In my opinion, he's that good."

Add in the offseason acquisitions of right guard Artis Hicks from Philadelphia and blocking fullback Tony Richardson (Kansas City), and the Vikings should have no trouble improving on their rushing performance of last season, when they ranked 27th in the league and averaged a puny 91.7 yards per game.

The 2005 Eagles actually finished one spot behind the Vikings and their 365 rushes were the third fewest in the league, but injuries had a lot to do with that, and Childress has made an improved running game a top priority.

The main beneficiary of all this figures to be Taylor, who was signed to a four-year, $14.1 million contract after four seasons of backing up Jamal Lewis in Baltimore.

Taylor never had more than 160 carries or rushed for more than 714 yards in any season with the Ravens, and the Vikings' coaches weren't happy with his conditioning at the first offseason minicamp.

Even so, he is expected to get every opportunity to become the team's featured back after two seasons of a running back-by-committee approach involving Mewelde Moore and the departed Michael Bennett and Onterrio Smith.

"I'm ready for the challenge," Taylor said. "I had my spurts in Baltimore when Jamal got hurt and then he got suspended (for two games in 2004) and I had to take the load. I know I can do it. I just want to prove I can do it for a whole season this time."

Taylor had the luxury of running behind a Ravens offensive line anchored by left tackle Jonathan Ogden, a nine-time Pro Bowl selection, but, based on what he saw during the offseason, the Vikings' front five could be even better.

"I'm real excited," Taylor said. "I had a great offensive line in Baltimore, but I'm really looking forward to playing behind this line."

http://www.twincities.com

 

[Banger]

I'm in.  what's the bet?

Taylor doesn't finish as a Top 20 RB in PPR formats. Loser pays $35,000.

 

[MLBrandow]

You realize this doesn't change the fact that he's a bad running back, right?

OK, I'll bite and play the role of the guy that gives the straight line and you can be the one that comes up with the cynical punchline . . .Over the 2004 and 2005 seasons Jamal Lewis (he of the 2,000 yard rushing pedigree) had a modest 3.79 ypc average. Over those same two seasons, Chester Taylor had a 4.34 ypc average. Explain to me like I am teenage girl that never saw a football game why that makes Taylor a bad running back (or better yet why Lewis was a better running back).

Okay.In football, certain RBs have different styles. There are guys that run through defenders, and guys that run around them.

A lot of times, you have what's called a "change of pace" or "3rd down" back. This guy comes in when the other RB needs a break, or to help provide a different running style that might exploit a certain defensive weakness.

Some teams in the NFL like to get a shifty guy in the backfield who can dodge and weave and avoid defenders and spell him with a guy who can knock them over. Some teams like to get a big RB who can knock them over, and then spell him with a shifty guy.

The latter is kind of like a good cop, bad cop deal. One RB comes in and beats the tar out of the defense, and then the other comes in gets some easy dividends.

Now, if that 2nd RB was really as good as his limited opportunities would indicate, many times other teams will try to get him to start. The problem is, a lot of these guys are backups for a reason: they need to play tired defenses in order to put up good numbers.

Now, this season, Jamal Lewis was playing hurt and wasn't as effective as he could have been. On top of that, his best two blockers were injured for most of the seasons. But Taylor couldn't beat out a hobbled Jamal Lewis, regardless of the line.

What ended up happening is Lewis had to take on the closer defenders (DL/LBs) just as much as the farther ones (LB/DBs), and it took a bigger toll on him. You see, defenses put their biggest guys up front, and then the smaller, faster ones in the back. Taylor came in, and because those guys in the back were beaten up, he looked great.

Now, when Taylor came in to the same situation in Weeks 11, 13, 14 and Lewis wasn't there to beat up the defenses, he didn't look nearly as explosive. Whereas Lewis was averaging 3.8ypc, Taylor was only averaging about 3.2.

In addition, Taylor's strength is his receiving ability. However, when he was the one taking most of the hits from defenses, he couldn't do as well against D's on the perimeter catching the ball. This is because those same guys that normally took hits from Jamal Lewis were fresher, and Taylor, on the other hand, was having to wear down the defense by himself.

There are a lot of guys in the league who can run the ball really well, but there are only a few who can run the ball well beyond a certain amount of carries.

Guys like Jamal Lewis, in order to be at their best, usually have to beat up the defenses. Guys like Chester Taylor can't do that, and so they need someone else to do it for them.

Here's a good example:

Jamal Lewis on average, in his first 10 carries of a game last year only averaged 3.1 ypc. By contrast, after he spent that time beating up the defenses, his ypc went up to 3.7 for the rest of the game. Not only that, but he begins to score more touchdowns.

Chester Taylor on average, in his first 10 carries of a game last year averaged 4.6 ypc. This is beacuse those carries usually came after Jamal Lewis had started beating up everyone. But it's also because he is at full speed. After getting tackled 10 times, he starts to slow down, and so for guys like him, coaches want to generally keep him at around 10-12 carries per game at the most, because after that, they'll get too tired and can't run the ball.

You see, unlike Jamal Lewis, who got better after he collided with tacklers, Taylor got worse. Whereas Lewis gained about .6 yards more per carry after 10, Taylor gained about 2.5 yards less.

If you split it in a different way (game time), you'll also see a similar split.

In the first half, Jamal Lewis only averaged 3.0 yards per carry. But in the 2nd half, he averaged 3.9ypc, and also scored all 3 of his touchdowns for the year.

On the converse, Chester Taylor averaged 4.5ypc in the first half, as opposed to only 4.0ypc in the 2nd half. And while Lewis only scored three touchdowns, Taylor could not get any.

So you see, in MIN, where Taylor is going to be by himself, without any big running backs to beat up defenses for him, he's going to have a very hard time being successful.

On the contrary, now that Jamal Lewis is healthy and he doesn't have Chester Taylor around taking his carries away, he'll be able to beat up defenses quicker, and then proceed to ram the football down their throats all game like he did in 2002. Because he was playing hurt in '05 and in prison for part of '04, he wasn't really in position to run the football as well. Now, he's much more likely to get the football a lot more, and that means more higher carry games, so that he can do what he does best.... beat people up.

I hope that helps explain a few things, like why there are some of us who don't buy Minnesota's signing of CT as anything more than a desparate effort to pretend like they got a decent running back in free agency when none of the good ones wanted to come. By overpaying for him, they can tell the fans of MIN that they landed a really good player. This, they hope, will make up for the fact that most of the actually good players don't want anything to do with Minnesota.

 

[H.K.]

I'm in.  what's the bet?

Taylor doesn't finish as a Top 20 RB in PPR formats. Loser pays $35,000.

Sounds good. Each of you wire me the money and I'll hold it until January when the season is done.

You disappoint me, I was expecting the Judge Smails "Gambling is illegal at Footballguys, and besides I never slice" response. I guess Yudkin = Capitalist earning interest in this scenario....OK, FBG has CT as RB20 in PPR formats (.1 x rush/rec yards, 6 points TD, -1 fum & 1 PPR), and I say he does worse than that projection. PPR should play to his strength as a former 3DRB and Childress as HC, so it gives him every benefiot of the doubt.

Injuries are tough noogies tho, as many detractors question his durability.

Sigs can be determined later....

 

[MLBrandow]

I'm in.  what's the bet?

Taylor doesn't finish as a Top 20 RB in PPR formats. Loser pays $35,000.

Guess which one is you in 2007.

 

[David Yudkin]

You realize this doesn't change the fact that he's a bad running back, right?

OK, I'll bite and play the role of the guy that gives the straight line and you can be the one that comes up with the cynical punchline . . .Over the 2004 and 2005 seasons Jamal Lewis (he of the 2,000 yard rushing pedigree) had a modest 3.79 ypc average. Over those same two seasons, Chester Taylor had a 4.34 ypc average. Explain to me like I am teenage girl that never saw a football game why that makes Taylor a bad running back (or better yet why Lewis was a better running back).

Okay.In football, certain RBs have different styles. There are guys that run through defenders, and guys that run around them.

A lot of times, you have what's called a "change of pace" or "3rd down" back. This guy comes in when the other RB needs a break, or to help provide a different running style that might exploit a certain defensive weakness.

Some teams in the NFL like to get a shifty guy in the backfield who can dodge and weave and avoid defenders and spell him with a guy who can knock them over. Some teams like to get a big RB who can knock them over, and then spell him with a shifty guy.

The latter is kind of like a good cop, bad cop deal. One RB comes in and beats the tar out of the defense, and then the other comes in gets some easy dividends.

Now, if that 2nd RB was really as good as his limited opportunities would indicate, many times other teams will try to get him to start. The problem is, a lot of these guys are backups for a reason: they need to play tired defenses in order to put up good numbers.

Now, this season, Jamal Lewis was playing hurt and wasn't as effective as he could have been. On top of that, his best two blockers were injured for most of the seasons. But Taylor couldn't beat out a hobbled Jamal Lewis, regardless of the line.

What ended up happening is Lewis had to take on the closer defenders (DL/LBs) just as much as the farther ones (LB/DBs), and it took a bigger toll on him. You see, defenses put their biggest guys up front, and then the smaller, faster ones in the back. Taylor came in, and because those guys in the back were beaten up, he looked great.

Now, when Taylor came in to the same situation in Weeks 11, 13, 14 and Lewis wasn't there to beat up the defenses, he didn't look nearly as explosive. Whereas Lewis was averaging 3.8ypc, Taylor was only averaging about 3.2.

In addition, Taylor's strength is his receiving ability. However, when he was the one taking most of the hits from defenses, he couldn't do as well against D's on the perimeter catching the ball. This is because those same guys that normally took hits from Jamal Lewis were fresher, and Taylor, on the other hand, was having to wear down the defense by himself.

There are a lot of guys in the league who can run the ball really well, but there are only a few who can run the ball well beyond a certain amount of carries.

Guys like Jamal Lewis, in order to be at their best, usually have to beat up the defenses. Guys like Chester Taylor can't do that, and so they need someone else to do it for them.

Here's a good example:

Jamal Lewis on average, in his first 10 carries of a game last year only averaged 3.1 ypc. By contrast, after he spent that time beating up the defenses, his ypc went up to 3.7 for the rest of the game. Not only that, but he begins to score more touchdowns.

Chester Taylor on average, in his first 10 carries of a game last year averaged 4.6 ypc. This is beacuse those carries usually came after Jamal Lewis had started beating up everyone. But it's also because he is at full speed. After getting tackled 10 times, he starts to slow down, and so for guys like him, coaches want to generally keep him at around 10-12 carries per game at the most, because after that, they'll get too tired and can't run the ball.

You see, unlike Jamal Lewis, who got better after he collided with tacklers, Taylor got worse. Whereas Lewis gained about .6 yards more per carry after 10, Taylor gained about 2.5 yards less.

If you split it in a different way (game time), you'll also see a similar split.

In the first half, Jamal Lewis only averaged 3.0 yards per carry. But in the 2nd half, he averaged 3.9ypc, and also scored all 3 of his touchdowns for the year.

On the converse, Chester Taylor averaged 4.5ypc in the first half, as opposed to only 4.0ypc in the 2nd half. And while Lewis only scored three touchdowns, Taylor could not get any.

So you see, in MIN, where Taylor is going to be by himself, without any big running backs to beat up defenses for him, he's going to have a very hard time being successful.

On the contrary, now that Jamal Lewis is healthy and he doesn't have Chester Taylor around taking his carries away, he'll be able to beat up defenses quicker, and then proceed to ram the football down their throats all game like he did in 2002. Because he was playing hurt in '05 and in prison for part of '04, he wasn't really in position to run the football as well. Now, he's much more likely to get the football a lot more, and that means more higher carry games, so that he can do what he does best.... beat people up.

I hope that helps explain a few things, like why there are some of us who don't buy Minnesota's signing of CT as anything more than a desparate effort to pretend like they got a decent running back in free agency when none of the good ones wanted to come. By overpaying for him, they can tell the fans of MIN that they landed a really good player. This, they hope, will make up for the fact that most of the actually good players don't want anything to do with Minnesota.

Thanks for the feedback. I'll read this in more detail later.But I wanted to add that Taylor had only 21 carries that fell in your range of "more than 10 carries" on the entire season, I'm not so sure that that data set is a lot to go by. And as you mentioned, the OL was banged up as well.

Seeing how 19 of those carries came against PIT (#3 in rushing yards allowed) and DEN (#2 in rushing yards allowed), I'm willing to give Taylor a mulligan on this isolated statistic. Maybe he is soft and will wear down, but I'm not looking at this small sample size with the majority against two of the best three rushing defenses in the league and conclude much of anything.

IMO, the MIN OL should at least start the year solid and healthy (where it goes from there, who knows).

 

[rascal]

Prior to last year who would have been rated higher...Lamont Jordan or Chester Taylor? And be honest.

And which team has the better offensive line?

 

[TeamDingo]

OK, FBG has CT as RB20 in PPR formats (.1 x rush/rec yards, 6 points TD, -1 fum & 1 PPR), and I say he does worse than that projection. PPR should play to his strength as a former 3DRB and Childress as HC, so it gives him every benefiot of the doubt.

Injuries are tough noogies tho, as many detractors question his durability.

Sigs can be determined later....

count me in 20th RB or better

 

[MLBrandow]

Thanks for the feedback.  I'll read this in more detail later.

But I wanted to add that Taylor had only 21 carries that fell in your range of "more than 10 carries" on the entire season, I'm not so sure that that data set is a lot to go by.  And as you mentioned, the OL was banged up as well.

Seeing how 19 of those carries came against PIT (#3 in rushing yards allowed) and DEN (#2 in rushing yards allowed), I'm willing to give Taylor a mulligan on this isolated statistic.  Maybe he is soft and will wear down, but I'm not looking at this small sample size with the majority against two of the best three rushing defenses in the league and conclude much of anything.

IMO, the MIN OL should at least start the year solid and healthy (where it goes from there, who knows).

Chester Taylor's career carry split:Attempts 1-5: 211/948/2TD, 1FL (4.5ypc, 0.4% FR)

Attempts 6-10: 83/350/0TD, 0FL (4.2ypc)

Attempts 11+: 79/301/2TD, 2FL (3.8ypc, 2.5% FR)

Attempts 21+: 9/16/0TD, 0FL (1.8ypc)

Jamal Lewis's career carry split:

Attempts 1-5: 372/1678/4TD, 4FL (4.5ypc, 1.1% FR)

Attempts 6-10: 355/1330/7TD, 2FL (3.7ypc, .06% FR)

Attempts 11+: 781/3661/25TD, 11FL (4.7ypc, 1.4% FR)

Attempts 21+: 206/919/9TD, 2FL (4.5ypc, 1.0% FR)

Attempts 31+: 6/43/TD, 0FL (7.2ypc)

Also, FWIW, Lewis has a career 8.8YPR as compared to Taylor's 7.0YPR. I'm not sure you'll find many people though that would say Lewis is the better receiver.

 

[H.K.]

OK, it's on!

CT RB21 or worse: HK

CT RB20 or better: TeamDingo

Who else?

 

[joffer]

how many total Minnesota RB carries are we expecting this year?

 

[MLBrandow]

OK, it's on!

CT RB21 or worse: HK

CT RB20 or better: TeamDingo

Who else?

I'll take RB21 or worse.

how many total Minnesota RB carries are we expecting this year?

Under Childress:
2002            |---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL              CMP  ATT   YD    YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD    YPA  TD     YD                318  548  3606   6.58  27  11  489  2220  4.54  15   5826NFL rank --->  18   18   18     18    3   6    5    7     8   14     102003            |---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL              CMP  ATT   YD    YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD    YPA  TD     YD                278  485  3273   6.75  17  11  417  2015  4.83  23   5288NFL rank --->  25   25   18     14   22   4   25    9     4    2     172004            |---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL              CMP  ATT   YD    YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD    YPA  TD     YD                336  547  4208   7.69  32  11  376  1639  4.36  10   5847NFL rank --->   8    9    6      9    4   6   31   24    10   23      82005            |---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL              CMP  ATT   YD    YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD    YPA  TD     YD                338  621  3903   6.29  21  20  365  1432  3.92  11   5335NFL rank --->   9    3    8     25   16  26   30   28    17   20     15Avg: 411 attempts per season. Notice the digression though in the running game and progression in the passing game.Being that MIN is going to be terrible, I expect that number will be much closer to 375 than 490.

FWIW, I'd bet you Jamal Lewis outrushes Minnesota this year.

 

[H.K.]

Update:

CT RB21 or worse: HK, MLBrandow

CT RB20 or better: TeamDingo

Alright CT supporters, time to put up or shut up!

 

[Marc Levin]

PPR should play to his strength as a former 3DRB and Childress as HC, so it gives him every benefiot of the doubt.

??Why?

MMoore is a SIGNIFICANTLY better receiver - and WAY WAY faster/quicker

The indications are that CTaylor gets pulled on throwing downs in favor of MMoore, or two bvacks are back there and one blocks and MMoore becomes a receiver.

I'll be surprised if Taylor has more than 25-30 receptions/150-200 yards/1 TD receiving this year - and that's what I see as his UPSIDE in receiving.

 

[H.K.]

PPR should play to his strength as a former 3DRB and Childress as HC, so it gives him every benefiot of the doubt.

??Why?

MMoore is a SIGNIFICANTLY better receiver - and WAY WAY faster/quicker

The indications are that CTaylor gets pulled on throwing downs in favor of MMoore, or two bvacks are back there and one blocks and MMoore becomes a receiver.

I'll be surprised if Taylor has more than 25-30 receptions/150-200 yards/1 TD receiving this year - and that's what I see as his UPSIDE in receiving.

Here's the transcipt from his signing presser, sounds like Childress won't hesitate to throw to him. Bolded the parts where appropriate for receptions:Linky-poo

Press conference transcript

Running Back Chester Taylor

Coach Childress: Next person I want to introduce to you is Chester Taylor. He is a free agent and played for the Baltimore Ravens. He also played at the University of Toledo; he had an outstanding career there. Had a chance to follow him through his college escapades, and I guess my recollection of him is playing Marshall with Chad Pennington and being 23 points down at halftime. I was talking to his college coach yesterday and he said, "We are going to get you the ball anyway we can. I want you to win this game for us." And he did. He had three touchdowns in the second half. Anyway, that catapults him into the NFL. Another recollection was of him running by me on the sidelines in a preseason game and I knew some of their running backs, and I was like, "Who in the (heck) is that guy," as he ran up the sideline, I think we were at the Lincoln. He's a good running back. He has multiple skills, can run between the tackles, can circle the defense, and has very good hands. Although he can catch passes thrown to him too. He can catch the football. So I'm going to introduce Chester Taylor.

Taylor: Hey everyone. I am really excited about this opportunity I have been given. I played behind Jamal Lewis for four years and standing on the sideline was just killing me a little bit but I did what I had to do.

Q: What are your thoughts on becoming a Viking?

A: I mean I enjoyed being with the Ravens. I'm glad they gave me the opportunity, but I felt like I wanted a fresh start so Minnesota is a great place for me right now. I'm just ready to get it started right now.

Q: Describe yourself as a running back?

A: I can catch the ball really well. Run out of the backfield, try to get the defense to mismatch up. I can also run well between the tackles. Like Coach Childress said, I can run outside as well, so I'm kind of versatile in that aspect.

Q: Is this offense good for you?

A: Yes, I believe I can run a good west coast offense. You have mismatches for the defense and try to bring something special to the table for the offense.

Q: Do you envision yourself doing the same as Bryan Westbrook.

A: Yeah I believe I could do the same thing Westbrook did. He caught a lot of passes out of the backfield. He lined up outside as a receiver as well. I can do that. Whatever I can do to make this team win, that's what I'm going to do.

Q: Did you learn from Jamal Lewis?

A: I learned a lot from Jamal, especially the one year he had 2,000 yards. I learned a lot like when to hit the hole, when to be patient. Blocking as well, I'm a much better blocker than when I came into the league, so my blocking got a lot better. I just try to improve myself every year.

Q: Do you feel like you could have gotten 2,000 yards?

A: I could if I had the opportunity. Luckily, I get the opportunity when I come here to see what I can do.

Q: Opportunity the mean reason?

A: Just getting out there and seeing what I can do. Being the go-to guy and being the right man. Going out there and taking it independently on me. I want the ball in my hands when it comes down to it.

Q: Is it nice to know you can move up the charts?

A: Knowing they had the same equal chance is great. With Jamal, I kind of figured they would keep him as a starter. Coming in here I get the opportunity like everybody else to get the starting job.

Q: Ever been in Minnesota?

A: I have never been in Minnesota but I heard it can get cold up here. But I'm used to that I'm from Detroit.

Coach Brad Childress

Q: Did you sign Chester Taylor with the idea he would get significant playing time?

A: Well I think we signed him with that in mind, but you always compete. Obviously I think we'll get his talents on the field. We were looking for a guy that we felt could be a higher-carries back, and I think he can do that.

Q: Does that become a factor in recruiting players like Chester Taylor or other offensive players?

A: For a guy like Chester Taylor, I think it's how many times does he get to put his hands on the football? It's really more about someone that can hand it to him.

Q: Will H.K. win his sig bet?

A: Absolutely, the guy is a stud

OK, so I added the last part....

 

[FFFIEND]

As a lifelong Vikings fan, I predict a long and painful season for all concerned.

I nearly spit beer on my keyboard. PERFECT! Best post I have read in a while!!!

 

[MLBrandow]

PPR should play to his strength as a former 3DRB and Childress as HC, so it gives him every benefiot of the doubt.

??Why?

MMoore is a SIGNIFICANTLY better receiver - and WAY WAY faster/quicker

The indications are that CTaylor gets pulled on throwing downs in favor of MMoore, or two bvacks are back there and one blocks and MMoore becomes a receiver.

I'll be surprised if Taylor has more than 25-30 receptions/150-200 yards/1 TD receiving this year - and that's what I see as his UPSIDE in receiving.

 

[Marc Levin]

Coach Brad Childress

Q: Did you sign Chester Taylor with the idea he would get significant playing time?

A: Well I think we signed him with that in mind, but you always compete. Obviously I think we'll get his talents on the field. We were looking for a guy that we felt could be a higher-carries back, and I think he can do that.

Q: Does that become a factor in recruiting players like Chester Taylor or other offensive players?

A: For a guy like Chester Taylor, I think it's how many times does he get to put his hands on the football? It's really more about someone that can hand it to him.

I don't see your point, H.K.Childress says HANDING the ball to him and making him a high CARRIES back - not throwing the ball to him.

 

[David Yudkin]

PPR should play to his strength as a former 3DRB and Childress as HC, so it gives him every benefiot of the doubt.

??Why?

MMoore is a SIGNIFICANTLY better receiver - and WAY WAY faster/quicker

The indications are that CTaylor gets pulled on throwing downs in favor of MMoore, or two bvacks are back there and one blocks and MMoore becomes a receiver.

I'll be surprised if Taylor has more than 25-30 receptions/150-200 yards/1 TD receiving this year - and that's what I see as his UPSIDE in receiving.

I ***STRONGLY*** disagree with this.As I mentioned elsewhere, up until now the Vikings have only used Moore when they have to. He's either starting or almost totally a back up. He has not been used as a third down back in the past, but you apparently think he will be now.

Moore has had played in 26 games with 11 games of 10 or more carries.

In the 15 games WITHOUT 10 carries, Moore has had exactly 15 receptions for a nice even average of one per game.

Taylor has had 11 games with 10 or more touches and has totaled 35 receptions or 3,2 per game (a pace of 51 per season).

I have seen nothing from MIN that suggests Moore will be anything more than a backup let alone the receiving back and Taylor just a rusher. Not one iota.

I'll concede that what Taylor did in BAL is not entirely relevant, nor is what Moore did with a different regime in MIN.

I think an upside projection of 25-30 receptions/150-200 yards/1 TD is just plain not looking closely enough at the situation. He had almost 300 yards playing part time in BAL.

And again, I look at Duce Staley as the example of what to expect from Taylor (who was in the 40-60 reception range).

 

[Biabreakable]

Thanks for the feedback.  I'll read this in more detail later.

But I wanted to add that Taylor had only 21 carries that fell in your range of "more than 10 carries" on the entire season, I'm not so sure that that data set is a lot to go by.  And as you mentioned, the OL was banged up as well.

Seeing how 19 of those carries came against PIT (#3 in rushing yards allowed) and DEN (#2 in rushing yards allowed), I'm willing to give Taylor a mulligan on this isolated statistic.  Maybe he is soft and will wear down, but I'm not looking at this small sample size with the majority against two of the best three rushing defenses in the league and conclude much of anything.

IMO, the MIN OL should at least start the year solid and healthy (where it goes from there, who knows).

Chester Taylor's career carry split:Attempts 1-5: 211/948/2TD, 1FL (4.5ypc, 0.4% FR)

Attempts 6-10: 83/350/0TD, 0FL (4.2ypc)

Attempts 11+: 79/301/2TD, 2FL (3.8ypc, 2.5% FR)

Attempts 21+: 9/16/0TD, 0FL (1.8ypc)

Jamal Lewis's career carry split:

Attempts 1-5: 372/1678/4TD, 4FL (4.5ypc, 1.1% FR)

Attempts 6-10: 355/1330/7TD, 2FL (3.7ypc, .06% FR)

Attempts 11+: 781/3661/25TD, 11FL (4.7ypc, 1.4% FR)

Attempts 21+: 206/919/9TD, 2FL (4.5ypc, 1.0% FR)

Attempts 31+: 6/43/TD, 0FL (7.2ypc)

Also, FWIW, Lewis has a career 8.8YPR as compared to Taylor's 7.0YPR. I'm not sure you'll find many people though that would say Lewis is the better receiver.

2004 was the season that Chester Taylor had the most carries so far in his career. 160 total. This is also the season where he had more games as an actual feature Rb. So it makes more sense to me to look at those games and see how well he performed than looking at 2 games against tough defenses last year.I dont have the splits by number of carries in front of me for 2004. If you do I would be curious to know if your premise holds true then as well?

Here are games that he actualy had more than 10 carries a game:

Oct 24 vs. Buffalo (strong run defense that year) 21 carries 89 yards 4.2 avg

Oct. 31 vs. Philly 18 carries 78 yards 4.3 ypc

Nov. 21 vs. Dallas 15 carries 33 yards 2.2 ypc (Taylor did not start this game but was running out the clock protecting a 20 point lead.)

Nov 28 vs. Pats 16 carries 61 yards 3.8 ypc

Dec 5 vs. Bengals 23 carries 139 yards 6.0 ypc

Dec 12 vs. Giants 25 carries 104 yards 4.2 ypc (Taylor did not start this game either but had a lot of carries while the Ravens were crushing the Giants 37-14)

Except for the 2 games against Dallas and the Giants Taylor started so Jamal Lewis was not part of those games. The Denver game in 2005 was the only game that season that Taylor actualy started.

Interested to see the split stats by carry from 2004. But he seems to have done ok 5 out of 6 times in 2004 that he had more than 10 carries in a game.

 

[Real Man of Genius]

OK, it's on!

CT RB21 or worse: HK

CT RB20 or better: TeamDingo

Who else?

Better

 

[Real Man of Genius]

If I manipulated the Data Dominator correctly (not a given), PHI passed the ball to their RB's 113 times for 76 catches and 675 yards on 1st and 2nd down last year, with similar numbers the three years before that as well.

Given Taylor is a downgrade from Westbrook in receiving ability, but even if he loses all 3rd down receptions, I can't see his ceiling being as low as some are projecting, unless he loses the starting job. And as short as his track record is, I still think there is a much better chance of him being the Vikings starting RB this year than anyone else.

 

[H.K.]

Four brave souls have entered the fray:

CT RB21 or worse: HK, MLBrandow

CT RB20 or better: TeamDingo, Real Man of Genius

Who is next?

 

[broncofan13000]

Four brave souls have entered the fray:

CT RB21 or worse: HK, MLBrandow

CT RB20 or better: TeamDingo, Real Man of Genius

Who is next?

Is this a sig bet? Put me down for RB 20 or better

 

[Tau837]

You just rendered your own data set invalid for purposes of this discussion.  To put it another way, who here is certain that Birk, Hutchinson, and Richardson will be Pro Bowlers this year? 

Also, it is a chicken and the egg situation - were there three pro bowlers b/c the RB was en fuego or was the RB en fuego b/c of the three pro bowlers?

Right. I said that. Here's the full post:

Now, the Vikings have not had a season with 3 Pro Bowlers yet, but if Birk, Hutchinson, and Richardson perform as they have done in the past I think that bodes well for the Vikings' rushing game. Certainly, it does not appear that the Vikings are going to become the 90s Cowboys or 00s Chiefs in terms of running production, but they should be a lot better than they have been.

See the highlighted text. You just rendered your own data set invalid for purposes of this discussion. To put it another way, who here is certain that Birk, Hutchinson, and Richardson will be Pro Bowlers this year? Plus, there are other problems with this data set:1. Too small to be of useful predictive value. In particular, you only named 5 RBs. Does anyone here think Chester Taylor is of comparable talent/ability to Emmitt, Priest, LJ, Bettis, or Alexander? I don't.

2. Chicken and egg situation. Did those RBs succeed because of the 3 Pro Bowlers, or were some of those Pro Bowls due to the talented RBs that made the blockers look good?

3. System. All of those RBs named above were in systems extremely favorable to RBs. That is, in systems that heavily used their feature backs all over the field, including the red zone and goal line. Do we know that Minnesota will use a system that is as favorable for its RBs? I think the jury is out on this one.

 

[joffer]

not that anyone is predicting it, but i find it odd that the Vikings haven't had a RB go for 300+ carries in the last 45 years. and only 9 times has a RB had 250+ carries...in 45 years???? wow.

 

[Biabreakable]

That may have been part of the reasoning behind the Hershel Walker trade.. The Vikings have never really had a dominant Rb before. But have historicly always been blessed with gifted Wrs.

Jerry Burns the coach when they traded for Heshel Walker liked to send in his plays with the Rb and prefered to RBBC for that reason as well as using different Rbs for different situations.

 

[The Ref]

Four brave souls have entered the fray:

CT RB21 or worse: HK, MLBrandow

CT RB20 or better: TeamDingo, Real Man of Genius

Who is next?

The way I figure, if he can do half of what he did at Toledo his Sr year, he is at top 10 back.2001

Rush

268/1492/20

Rec

26/246/3

He already has one ring on my college FF team, I figure top 20 should be easy...

Put me down for over.

 

[MLBrandow]

Four brave souls have entered the fray:

CT RB21 or worse: HK, MLBrandow

CT RB20 or better: TeamDingo, Real Man of Genius

Who is next?

Is this a sig bet? Put me down for RB 20 or better

Sig bets are just for mono a mono bets. I think this one is just for "Told you so".

2004 was the season that Chester Taylor had the most carries so far in his career. 160 total. This is also the season where he had more games as an actual feature Rb. So it makes more sense to me to look at those games and see how well he performed than looking at 2 games against tough defenses last year.

I dont have the splits by number of carries in front of me for 2004. If you do I would be curious to know if your premise holds true then as well?

Interested to see the split stats by carry from 2004. But he seems to have done ok 5 out of 6 times in 2004 that he had more than 10 carries in a game.

*edited for clarityThe numbers I provided in the Yudkin post were from 2005. The subsequent splits were by career.

Chester Taylor 2004 carry split:

Attempts 1-5: 61/275/0TD (4.5ypc)

Attempts 6-10: 41/182/0TD (4.4ypc)

Attempts 11+: 55/257/2TD, FL (4.7ypc, 1.8% FR)

Attempts 21+: 9/16/0TD (1.8ypc)

1st half: 77/345/0TD (4.5ypc)

2nd half: 88/369/2TD,, FL (4.4ypc, 1.1% FR)

Jamal Lewis 2004 carry split:

Attempts 1-5: 57/244/1TD (4.3ypc)

Attempts 6-10: 53/220/1TD (4.2ypc)

Attempts 11+: 125/542/5TD (4.3ypc)

Attempts 21+: 38/134/1TD (3.5ypc)

Attempts 31+: 4/11/0TD (2.8ypc)

1st half: 124/478/2TD (3.9ypc)

2nd half: 111/528/5TD (4.8ypc)

Jamal Lewis 2003 carry split:

Attempts 1-5: 80/480/2TD, FL (6.0ypc, 1.3% FR)

Attempts 6-10: 80/315/2TD, FL (3.9ypc, 1.3% FR)

Attempts 11+: 227/1271/10TD, 4FL (5.6ypc, 1.8% FR)

Attempts 21+: 74/395/5TD, FL (5.3ypc, 1.4% FR)

Attempts 31+: 2/32/1TD (16.0ypc)

1st half: 206/1067/5TD, 2FL (5.2ypc)

2nd half: 181/999/9TD, 4FL (5.5ypc)

 

[MLBrandow]

You know what's really funny.... I was just looking at ADPs....

I think I actually like every starting RB in the league over Chester Taylor this year.

NE - Corey Dillon

BUF - Willis McGahee

NYJ - Curtis Martin

MIA - Ronnie Brown

CIN - Rudi Johnson

PIT - Willie Parker

BAL - Jamal Lewis

CLE - Reuben Droughns

IND - Dominic Rhodes

JAX - Maurice Drew

TEN - LenDale White

HOU - Domanick Davis

DEN - Ron Dayne

KC - Larry Johnson

SD - LaDainian Tomlinson

OAK - LaMont Jordan

NYG - Tiki Barber

WAS - Clinton Portis

DAL - Julius Jones

PHI - Brian Westbrook

CHI - Cedric Benson

MIN - Mewelde Moore

DET - Kevin Jones

GB - Ahman Green

TB - Cadillac Williams

CAR - DeAngelo Williams

ATL - Warrick Dunn

NO - Deuce McAllister

SEA - Shaun Alexander

STL - Steven Jackson

ARI - Edgerrin James

SF - Frank Gore

 

[cantstop1999]

You know what's really funny.... I was just looking at ADPs....

I think I actually like every starting RB in the league over Chester Taylor this year.

NE - Corey Dillon

BUF - Willis McGahee

NYJ - Curtis Martin

MIA - Ronnie Brown

CIN - Rudi Johnson

PIT - Willie Parker

BAL - Jamal Lewis

CLE - Reuben Droughns

IND - Dominic Rhodes

JAX - Maurice Drew

TEN - LenDale White

HOU - Domanick Davis

DEN - Ron Dayne

KC - Larry Johnson

SD - LaDainian Tomlinson

OAK - LaMont Jordan

NYG - Tiki Barber

WAS - Clinton Portis

DAL - Julius Jones

PHI - Brian Westbrook

CHI - Cedric Benson

MIN - Mewelde Moore

DET - Kevin Jones

GB - Ahman Green

TB - Cadillac Williams

CAR - DeAngelo Williams

ATL - Warrick Dunn

NO - Deuce McAllister

SEA - Shaun Alexander

STL - Steven Jackson

ARI - Edgerrin James

SF - Frank Gore

i wish you were in my league........clown

 

[eoMMan]

You know what's really funny.... I was just looking at ADPs....

I think I actually like every starting RB in the league over Chester Taylor this year.

NE - Corey Dillon

BUF - Willis McGahee

NYJ - Curtis Martin

MIA - Ronnie Brown

CIN - Rudi Johnson

PIT - Willie Parker

BAL - Jamal Lewis

CLE - Reuben Droughns

IND - Dominic Rhodes

JAX - Maurice Drew

TEN - LenDale White

HOU - Domanick Davis

DEN - Ron Dayne

KC - Larry Johnson

SD - LaDainian Tomlinson

OAK - LaMont Jordan

NYG - Tiki Barber

WAS - Clinton Portis

DAL - Julius Jones

PHI - Brian Westbrook

CHI - Cedric Benson

MIN - Mewelde Moore

DET - Kevin Jones

GB - Ahman Green

TB - Cadillac Williams

CAR - DeAngelo Williams

ATL - Warrick Dunn

NO - Deuce McAllister

SEA - Shaun Alexander

STL - Steven Jackson

ARI - Edgerrin James

SF - Frank Gore

i wish you were in my league........clown

What's funny is that quite a few of those guys aren't even considered the starter yet.

 

[Sabertooth]

MLBRANDOW, why do you keep posting in here if you don't like the guy? Same with H.K. You guys are the top two posters in this thread. We get it, you don't like him. Do you need to have 36 posts between you to get your point across?

 

[Banger]

I'm in.  what's the bet?

Taylor doesn't finish as a Top 20 RB in PPR formats.

I think this sig bet is a far departure from what's been argued about considering you predicted Chris Brown would be the starter, then Moore/Fason would take his job in training camp, to he'd lose his job by the end of the year to now that he won't exceed his ADP. Well 1/2 the players don't exceed their ADP so that's not really a stretch but with all that being said I'm in for 20 or better....

 

[Gbagzz]

As a lifelong Vikings fan, I predict a long and painful season for all concerned.

aside of b.johnson not being the best qb where is the big problem?

I think they may o line issues. I have no faith in the receivers. People are very high on Robinson. It is my opinion that he is very much overated.

I think that the WR corp with not scare anyone with BJ throwing the ball.

There have been comments about the conditioning of Taylor.

New coach.

I think the combination of the oline condition, new coach, substandard wr corp, rbbc, and condition issues may spell disaster for my Vikings.

Just my opinion hope I am wrong

They got one of the best LG's in the game from Seattle... that will definitely help.

 

[Perry Ice]

Let’s put a new spin on this discussion, and play devils advocate for a moment.

Let’s say Minnesota went out and signed Edgerrin James rather then Chester Taylor, then how do you think that would effect Edge.

Edge running behind that offensive line, on a team with a weak passing game that would lean on the run and people would be drooling over Edge, and I think he would be in a tier with Tiki and Portis. Throw in Childress tendancy to throw to the RB and and you are looking at a fantasy stud.

Now lets put Chester in Arizona. Running behind that Arizona line, I just wouldn’t see Chester’s minimal talent making that offensive line look good and he would struggle, as much as J.J. and Shipp did last year.

Lets spin it another way and say Chester was signed by the Colts, and they didn't draft Addai. Where would you rank Taylor then?. I think behind a good Colts line, and having Manning at the helm, Chester would be back to being a viable 2nd round back.

Let's spin this again, take Ron Dayne. Do you think this guy would have any value playing in any system other than Broncos?.

All this to say that more so then talent, I think the environment the back is placed in has a lot to do in with the backs ultimate fantasy success.

Taylor is a great situation behind a great line, and with a coach who has a track record of getting his primary running back involved heavily in the passing game. Taylor will be in the top 20 RB in a PPR.

 

[glock]

You know what's really funny.... I was just looking at ADPs....

I think I actually like every starting RB in the league over Chester Taylor this year.

You know what? That is really funny.

 

[rascal]

Look at his schedule.

 

[joffer]

Look at his schedule.

defnitely a rough start

 

[MLBrandow]

MLBRANDOW, why do you keep posting in here if you don't like the guy? Same with H.K. You guys are the top two posters in this thread. We get it, you don't like him. Do you need to have 36 posts between you to get your point across?

I'm just curious as to why everyone is so high on him, and yet it doesn't appear that they can accurately refute any of my arguments.

 

[Marc Levin]

Right. I said that. Here's the full post:

But did you mention the chicken and the egg phenomenon??

 

[Marc Levin]

not that anyone is predicting it, but i find it odd that the Vikings haven't had a RB go for 300+ carries in the last 45 years. and only 9 times has a RB had 250+ carries...in 45 years???? wow.

 

[TeamDingo]

Let’s put a new spin on this discussion, and play devils advocate for a moment.

Let’s say Minnesota went out and signed Edgerrin James rather then Chester Taylor, then how do you think that would effect Edge.

Edge running behind that offensive line, on a team with a weak passing game that would lean on the run and people would be drooling over Edge, and I think he would be in a tier with Tiki and Portis. Throw in Childress tendancy to throw to the RB and and you are looking at a fantasy stud.

Now lets put Chester in Arizona. Running behind that Arizona line, I just wouldn’t see Chester’s minimal talent making that offensive line look good and he would struggle, as much as J.J. and Shipp did last year.

Lets spin it another way and say Chester was signed by the Colts, and they didn't draft Addai. Where would you rank Taylor then?. I think behind a good Colts line, and having Manning at the helm, Chester would be back to being a viable 2nd round back.

Let's spin this again, take Ron Dayne. Do you think this guy would have any value playing in any system other than Broncos?.

All this to say that more so then talent, I think the environment the back is placed in has a lot to do in with the backs ultimate fantasy success.

Taylor is a great situation behind a great line, and with a coach who has a track record of getting his primary running back involved heavily in the passing game. Taylor will be in the top 20 RB in a PPR.

I agree with everything that Perry Ice said here and would just like to add a couple things. Following the Vikings closely, Childress has been preparing to be NFL head coach for a long time. He knows if you screw up this chance it may never come again. He chose CTaylor to be his feature back. You might think CTaylor sucks, but Childress does not. You may be right he may be wrong but he is the HC. He didn't pick him to be RBBC, he didn't draft DWilliams or LMaroney, he didn't look at MMoore and say "BWestbrook II", he's not begging the Titans for CBrown, he didn't ask Zygy to break the bank for EJames. What he did do was ask him to break the bank for SHutchinson. Because the Vikings plan on running the ball. Allot. Behind the center, left guard , left tackle and fullback. The Vikings didn't have a prototypical fullback to run behind so they went and got one. Because they are going to run the ball. Allot.

 

[Sir Psycho]

Let’s put a new spin on this discussion, and play devils advocate for a moment.

Let’s say Minnesota went out and signed Edgerrin James rather then Chester Taylor, then how do you think that would effect Edge.

Edge running behind that offensive line, on a team with a weak passing game that would lean on the run and people would be drooling over Edge, and I think he would be in a tier with Tiki and Portis. Throw in Childress tendancy to throw to the RB and and you are looking at a fantasy stud.

Now lets put Chester in Arizona. Running behind that Arizona line, I just wouldn’t see Chester’s minimal talent making that offensive line look good and he would struggle, as much as J.J. and Shipp did last year.

Lets spin it another way and say Chester was signed by the Colts, and they didn't draft Addai. Where would you rank Taylor then?. I think behind a good Colts line, and having Manning at the helm, Chester would be back to being a viable 2nd round back.

Let's spin this again, take Ron Dayne. Do you think this guy would have any value playing in any system other than Broncos?.

All this to say that more so then talent, I think the environment the back is placed in has a lot to do in with the backs ultimate fantasy success.

Taylor is a great situation behind a great line, and with a coach who has a track record of getting his primary running back involved heavily in the passing game. Taylor will be in the top 20 RB in a PPR.

I agree with everything that Perry Ice said here and would just like to add a couple things. Following the Vikings closely, Childress has been preparing to be NFL head coach for a long time. He knows if you screw up this chance it may never come again. He chose CTaylor to be his feature back. You might think CTaylor sucks, but Childress does not. You may be right he may be wrong but he is the HC. He didn't pick him to be RBBC, he didn't draft DWilliams or LMaroney, he didn't look at MMoore and say "BWestbrook II", he's not begging the Titans for CBrown, he didn't ask Zygy to break the bank for EJames. What he did do was ask him to break the bank for SHutchinson. Because the Vikings plan on running the ball. Allot. Behind the center, left guard , left tackle and fullback. The Vikings didn't have a prototypical fullback to run behind so they went and got one. Because they are going to run the ball. Allot.

 

[Real Man of Genius]

MLBRANDOW, why do you keep posting in here if you don't like the guy? Same with H.K. You guys are the top two posters in this thread. We get it, you don't like him. Do you need to have 36 posts between you to get your point across?

 

[rascal]

Look at his schedule.

defnitely a rough start

Tied wtih GB for the easiest schedule according to USOS.Might be tough out of the gate but that playoff schedule is incredible.

 

[Biabreakable]

MLBRANDOW, why do you keep posting in here if you don't like the guy?  Same with H.K.      You guys are the top two posters in this thread.  We get it, you don't like him.  Do you need to have 36 posts between you to get your point across?

I'm just curious as to why everyone is so high on him, and yet it doesn't appear that they can accurately refute any of my arguments.

I think you know the reasons why people see Chester Taylor as having a lot of upside. You just are not being objective it seems to me about those reasons.As far as your argument that Chester Taylor breaks down after 10 carries I don't think the evidence you provided shows that to be true.

Chester Taylor 2004 carry split:

Attempts 1-5: 61/275/0TD (4.5ypc)

Attempts 6-10: 41/182/0TD (4.4ypc)

Attempts 11+: 55/257/2TD, FL (4.7ypc, 1.8% FR)

Attempts 21+: 9/16/0TD (1.8ypc)

1st half: 77/345/0TD (4.5ypc)

2nd half: 88/369/2TD,, FL (4.4ypc, 1.1% FR)

The career splits supported your position a bit more but those stats are taken from a much more sporadic sample size than what I consider to be the best example we have so far of what he is capable of from 2004. Not that this sample size is in any way conclusive either. It is just the best we have to work from.Taylor only had 8 carries of carry 21 or more in 2004 according to NFL.com he did only gain half as much ypc on those 8 carries. I don't think this is conclusive of what he will do when getting more carries than this in the future but may be an indicator that his conditioning was not at a level it needed to be to maintain his otherwise quality ypc on carries 1-20.

Also note that Taylor had several receptions in those same games which increases his total touches and will likely be in that situation and opportunity every game this year if he is healthy.

As far as comparing him to Jamal Lewis I don't think this has any bearing any more because Taylor no longer is competing with Jamal Lewis for carries.

I have seen comments that Mewelde Moore will beat Taylor out for the starting job but I have seen no argument to support that position. And it is definitly not what the Head Coach has been saying.

I think there are several positives as well as negatives when looking at Chester Taylor and trying to determine what he will do in 2006. That is what makes him a inruiging and controversial player and situation for this preseason.

I think he could have a very good year as we have seen Lamont Jordan and Thomas Jones changing teams and becoming feature Rbs recently.

I think he also carries a lot of risk. My main concern is if Brad Johnson is injured I am not sure how well Taylor will do against defenses that will not have much reason to respect the passing game and can then focus most of thier attention on stoping him.

The motivation and conditioning concerns still lurk a bit I think. The game that Taylor would have started last year if he had not missed practice is somthing that still bothers me about him. However most recent information from coach Childress has for the most part debunked those issues imho.

What side of this argument anyone takes has absolutly no bearing on how Taylor will actualy perform this year. Im thankful for everyone who shares thier opinion and information on it though. A lack of objective perspective about the situation isn't going to change the outcome in any way.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Four brave souls have entered the fray:

CT RB21 or worse: HK, MLBrandow

CT RB20 or better: TeamDingo, Real Man of Genius

Who is next?

Better than RB20 in!!

 

[H.K.]

CT RB21 or worse: HK, MLBrandow

CT RB20 or better: TeamDingo, Real Man of Genius, Banger, The Scientist, Broncofan13000, The Ref

 

[cr8f]

Chester will molest the defenses, grab him if you can

First they give away Moss then Culpepper and still predict success. Vikings fans never cease to amaze.