Sunday Gravy
Footballguy
Turner is going to Atlanta at 8. Lock it in.
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***Chicago Bears Thread*** A dynasty begins... (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter flapgreen
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Max Power
Footballguy
I like Verse after a trade down
Max Power
Footballguy
I just can't get on board with an OL at 9 if the Bears don't address DE in FA. Sweat and Walker each only play about 70% of defensive snaps each. The system falls apart without a third edge rotating through.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
I think so too, but one can hope.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
Rumors are Hassan Riddick is going to be available. He was an animal in the second half of last season.
Chaos34
Footballguy
QB is the most important position in all of team sports. You're about to get a rare talent. Do everything possible to support him. Have you watched Bowers? He's the love child of Kupp and Allstott. He'd be the perfect Bear. OL is really strong but it is going to be picked clean before 3rd round pick 75. Edge isn't that strong but it is pretty deep and I'd risk a solid one being there at 75 before passing on a potential pro bowl OL or HoF TE... for Caleb.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I don't think a guy like Nabers or Odunze at 9 would be terrible for you guys.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Bowers will be a great TE. BUT, it typically takes a couple years before TEs can make excel at NFL speed AND we have Kmet and Everett, both vets, to lock down the pass catching TE rotation. It is not a position of need, IMO.
I don't think Bowers will be the pick with the addition of Everett, but I would disagree that TEs take a while to develop. I think that was true 10+ years ago, but we've seen numerous examples of guys being important contributors at the position right away.
Its actually been a while since there was a TE who took a few years to get going. Pretty much anyone who became anything was there by year 2. Dalton Schultz maybe?
Max Power
Footballguy
I like Verse, but not at #9. Bears need to trade down IMO. The most glaring need is edge. OT & WR are more luxury picks to me, however those might be the positions with the BPAs at 9.
nirad3
Footballguy
I'm not super-up on the OL talent of this draft outside of Alt, maybe a couple more... but if Odunze or Nabers are there at 9 I don't see how they pass on one of them, even with Allen and Moore on the roster.
I agree that a move-down would be nice if someone doesn't fall.
Max Power
Footballguy
I love the idea of JJ McCarthy moving into a top 6-8 pick. Pushing the other positions down one slot is pretty huge in this draft. Alt is the only OL I'd want at 9.
My top 9 mock as of today.
1.Caleb
2. Daniels
3. JJ
4. MHjr
5. Maye (Vikes trade)
6. Odunze
7. Alt
8. Turner
9. Nabers
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Most Receiving Yards By A Rookie Tight End In A Season | StatMuse
Mike Ditka has the most receiving yards by a rookie tight end, with 1,076 yards in 1961.
LaPorta, Pitts and Kincaid aside, which recent TEs have had good rookie seasons?
Freiermuth had a solid rookie season, but that wasn't my point. My point was it hasn't taken a bunch of years for TEs to develop. Pretty much everyone that is good shows it by year 2, and none of those guys (save Pitts) is the prospect Bowers is.Most Receiving Yards By A Rookie Tight End In A Season | StatMuse
Mike Ditka has the most receiving yards by a rookie tight end, with 1,076 yards in 1961.www.statmuse.com
LaPorta, Pitts and Kincaid aside, which recent TEs have had good rookie seasons?
I am thinking if 4 QBs go in the top 6, that Odunze is probably on the table at #9. I can't see the Titans going WR over OT, especially after the Ridley signing. Can't see the Falcons going WR either, at least in round 1, not over 1st choice of all the defensive players.
calcinorjones
Footballguy
Nabers at 9 would be awesome
Max Power
Footballguy
Caleb Pro Day highlights.
www.youtube.com
Kind of boring 2 minute video, but big hug to Poles at the end.
Caleb Williams 'FULL' USC Pro Day Highlights ð (Future #1 Overall Pick)
----------------------------------------Â--------------------------ð¸ Instagram: @SimplyAS10.prod----------------------------------------Â-------------------...
www.youtube.com
Kind of boring 2 minute video, but big hug to Poles at the end.
nirad3
Footballguy
I don't think Odunze goes before Nabers, honestly, but either one of them would be pretty sweet for the Bears.
Max Power
Footballguy
I like Nabers more than Odunze but I think if the NYG have their pick between the two, Odunze fits better there. They need a big body WR more than another 6' with speed guy.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Smokescreen
ZWK
Footballguy
Mike Clay has rankings for each positional group for every team, and a downloadable guide with more info on each team. Here's how he rates the Bears' positional groups, from strongest to weakest:
LB (5th), CB (7th), TE (9th), OL (9th), S (9th), WR (11th), RB (17th), ED (19th), QB (25th), DI (28th)
Seems like these are in the right ballpark. D-Line is by far the team's biggest weakness, once they've drafted their QB. They have Montez Sweat and not much else.
Overall the team seems very solid. I think 18/22 starters on the roster now (in 11 & nickel personnel) are averageish or better. The four exceptions are QB, 3 technique DT, DE2, and WR3.
Top needs
QB: Obviously they're taking one at the start of the draft rather than rolling with Bagent+Rypien.
DT/3T: Gervon Dexter was pretty bad last year by PFF grade. So was Zacch Pickens, his competition on the roster. Even if they improve some in year 2, you want to have a 4-player DT rotation and they really don't have anyone besides these two and starting DT/NT Andrew Billings (who is solid at what he does but will probably only play around half the snaps). They'd be way better off with a good 3 tech starting next to Billings, with Dexter & Pickens competing for a larger rotational role behind them.
DE2: DeMarcus Walker was pretty bad last year by PFF grade. Jake Martin and Dominique Robinson aren't good either. Even if you disagree and think he's okay, you want to have a 3 or 4 player DE rotation and they'd be much better off with Sweat & another good DE as their starters, with Walker rotating in behind them and Martin & Dominique Robinson competing to be DE4.
WR3: Tyler Scott probably isn't a NFL starting caliber WR, but he's pencilled in as their WR3. Waldron may want to run a lot of 2 TE sets with Kmet & Everett, but almost every team in the league puts 3+ WRs out there at least half the time
All 4 of these are premium positions, QB most of all; WR3 not exactly, but WR is and if they get someone good then he probably won't stay their WR3 for long. So DT, DE, and WR are the 3 natural targets for their second first-round pick, maybe after trading down. My preference would be to take Malik Nabers at 9 if he's there (because I love him as a prospect) and otherwise try hard to trade down to the mid or late 1st. There are 7 defensive linemen currently projected as 1st rounders (including 2 DTs and ending with 2 Robinsons) and I don't think that any of them stand out that far above the rest so it's a good position group to be targeting later in the 1st round.
Past the first round, more needs are relevant. Looking beyond the 2024 season, and to depth outside the 22 starters, and to upgrade on other slightly below average starters, some additional needs:
Additional needs
IOL of the future: LG Teven Jenkins & C Coleman Shelton are both scheduled to be free agents next offseason, Shelton is probably a slightly below average center, and RG Nate Davis is a cut candidate next offseason if he doesn't play better than he did last year. So they could look to draft a 2025 starter who might push for a job this year, even though 2024 IOL depth isn't a priority given that they traded for Ryan Bates.
swing OT: The starting duo is solid and signed through 2025+, but in the competition for backup OT no one has much guaranteed money (probably) and no one looks that great between Jake Curhan, Matt Pryor, and Larry Borom.
more WRs: It's better to have at least 4 WRs who you trust to see the field, given the likelihood that at least 1 of the top 3 will miss some time. And Keenan Allen will be 32 this season and is only signed for 1 year, which makes DJ Moore the only WR of note under contract for 2025. So it could be useful to add 2-3 WRs, especially if none of them is a first rounder.
another DE: It's great to have a bunch of pass rushers who you can rotate in at DE. Adding 1 DE would still leave Dominique Robinson and Jake Martin competing for the DE4 spot in the rotation, and the Bears could do better than that. Honestly, they could do better than DeMarcus Walker as the DE3.
LB (5th), CB (7th), TE (9th), OL (9th), S (9th), WR (11th), RB (17th), ED (19th), QB (25th), DI (28th)
Seems like these are in the right ballpark. D-Line is by far the team's biggest weakness, once they've drafted their QB. They have Montez Sweat and not much else.
Overall the team seems very solid. I think 18/22 starters on the roster now (in 11 & nickel personnel) are averageish or better. The four exceptions are QB, 3 technique DT, DE2, and WR3.
Top needs
QB: Obviously they're taking one at the start of the draft rather than rolling with Bagent+Rypien.
DT/3T: Gervon Dexter was pretty bad last year by PFF grade. So was Zacch Pickens, his competition on the roster. Even if they improve some in year 2, you want to have a 4-player DT rotation and they really don't have anyone besides these two and starting DT/NT Andrew Billings (who is solid at what he does but will probably only play around half the snaps). They'd be way better off with a good 3 tech starting next to Billings, with Dexter & Pickens competing for a larger rotational role behind them.
DE2: DeMarcus Walker was pretty bad last year by PFF grade. Jake Martin and Dominique Robinson aren't good either. Even if you disagree and think he's okay, you want to have a 3 or 4 player DE rotation and they'd be much better off with Sweat & another good DE as their starters, with Walker rotating in behind them and Martin & Dominique Robinson competing to be DE4.
WR3: Tyler Scott probably isn't a NFL starting caliber WR, but he's pencilled in as their WR3. Waldron may want to run a lot of 2 TE sets with Kmet & Everett, but almost every team in the league puts 3+ WRs out there at least half the time
All 4 of these are premium positions, QB most of all; WR3 not exactly, but WR is and if they get someone good then he probably won't stay their WR3 for long. So DT, DE, and WR are the 3 natural targets for their second first-round pick, maybe after trading down. My preference would be to take Malik Nabers at 9 if he's there (because I love him as a prospect) and otherwise try hard to trade down to the mid or late 1st. There are 7 defensive linemen currently projected as 1st rounders (including 2 DTs and ending with 2 Robinsons) and I don't think that any of them stand out that far above the rest so it's a good position group to be targeting later in the 1st round.
Past the first round, more needs are relevant. Looking beyond the 2024 season, and to depth outside the 22 starters, and to upgrade on other slightly below average starters, some additional needs:
Additional needs
IOL of the future: LG Teven Jenkins & C Coleman Shelton are both scheduled to be free agents next offseason, Shelton is probably a slightly below average center, and RG Nate Davis is a cut candidate next offseason if he doesn't play better than he did last year. So they could look to draft a 2025 starter who might push for a job this year, even though 2024 IOL depth isn't a priority given that they traded for Ryan Bates.
swing OT: The starting duo is solid and signed through 2025+, but in the competition for backup OT no one has much guaranteed money (probably) and no one looks that great between Jake Curhan, Matt Pryor, and Larry Borom.
more WRs: It's better to have at least 4 WRs who you trust to see the field, given the likelihood that at least 1 of the top 3 will miss some time. And Keenan Allen will be 32 this season and is only signed for 1 year, which makes DJ Moore the only WR of note under contract for 2025. So it could be useful to add 2-3 WRs, especially if none of them is a first rounder.
another DE: It's great to have a bunch of pass rushers who you can rotate in at DE. Adding 1 DE would still leave Dominique Robinson and Jake Martin competing for the DE4 spot in the rotation, and the Bears could do better than that. Honestly, they could do better than DeMarcus Walker as the DE3.
Max Power
Footballguy
@ZWK that was a pretty spot on analysis. I like what you're saying about the WRs and while I love the draft prospects this year, I think there are still several quality WR3/4 type guys available in FA.
Edge is a different story. All the impact free agents are gone. If the Bears want someone with upside they need to draft one.
I like the flashes from Dexter last season and think he will improve. Pickens wasn't very impressive, but I'll hold out hope he improves. I'm more willing to bring in a vet to hold down the middle vs draft another young guy.
I'd order my draft preference as QB, Edge, WR, OL, IDL.
Edge is a different story. All the impact free agents are gone. If the Bears want someone with upside they need to draft one.
I like the flashes from Dexter last season and think he will improve. Pickens wasn't very impressive, but I'll hold out hope he improves. I'm more willing to bring in a vet to hold down the middle vs draft another young guy.
I'd order my draft preference as QB, Edge, WR, OL, IDL.
Sunday Gravy
Footballguy
Good write up there ZWK. I am hesitant to use PFF as an authority on this kind of stuff because Dexter had a very strong finish to the season that is obviously not reflected in that grade or score or whatever they do. I have high hopes for him this season.
Really hard to believe Poles wasn't more aggressive for a pass rusher. I think we need one way more than a wr. This draft is loaded at wr and I'm willing to wait until the 4th.
Really hard to believe Poles wasn't more aggressive for a pass rusher. I think we need one way more than a wr. This draft is loaded at wr and I'm willing to wait until the 4th.
Max Power
Footballguy
Caleb Williams had a very revealing remark about playing with Bears’ Keenan Allen at his pro day
Caleb Williams is beyond ready to join the Bears.
ftw.usatoday.com
rschroeder1
Footballguy
I guess for me the most important consideration for '24 is ensuring Williams has quality talent around him. I'm glad the Bears aren't absolutely tied to taking a WR at 9 and have the flexibility to go BPA/trade down.
Even a first-round rookie WR would be a coin toss career-wise, and moreso for year 1.
RC94
Footballguy
We're doing a mock draft. If anyone wants to take the Bears, or any other team, here's the thread: https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/fbg-mock-draft.812151/
Sunday Gravy
Footballguy
This group of 4 qbs seems so much better than any group we've seen in a long time. Seems like we're set on Caleb but I have to question why now. He's small and doesn't seem stable after seeing the picture I just saw of him. There couldn't be just one clear cut top guy this year? I don't see this ending well.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Oh, good grief. Painted nails and a pink phone cover does not mean he's instable. The current generation doesn't really care about the boomer gender norms.
Caleb is the clear #1. The other 3 QBs each have their warts.
Sunday Gravy
Footballguy
So does he. I don't give a crap about generation BS.... You need to be a certain type of leader to play QB at a high level in the NFL. Think what you want, those are bad signs. Guy looked like he was wearing lipstick.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
Damn, good trade by the Jets. I wanted Riddick to play here.
ZWK
Footballguy
I drafted for the Bears in the 3-round FBG Mock Draft thread. Made a few trades and turned picks 1, 9, 75, and 122 into: QB Caleb Williams (1), DT Byron Murphy (19), WR Keon Coleman (61), WR Javon Baker (83), and OL Dominick Puni (99), plus picks 122, 154, and 196.
Hit most of the needs I mentioned earlier, but didn't get a DE. That would've been a target position on day 3 if we were drafting that long. Puni is probably a guard long-term but might be the team's best swing tackle in 2024.
Hit most of the needs I mentioned earlier, but didn't get a DE. That would've been a target position on day 3 if we were drafting that long. Puni is probably a guard long-term but might be the team's best swing tackle in 2024.
Max Power
Footballguy
I'd be super happy with Williams, Murphy and Coleman in the first two rounds. I love the value of Coleman that late. I like Murphy the player a lot, but I see him as a sort of a luxury pick. If he is hands down better than Dexter in the staff's eyes I understand it.
I stopped following the draft over the weekend, so I don't know who else was on the board when Baker was selected. Baker is intriguing, but I think passing on DE in their top 4-5 would be a mistake.
rschroeder1
Footballguy
Surely leadership has a lot more to do with leadership traits as opposed to what someone looks like?
Surely as Bears fans we haven't forgotten about how a previous iteration of Bears leadership became enamored with a clean-cut young man who drove a good ol' American car.
Here are the draft reports on Deshaun Watson:
NFL.com: "tremendous leader."
WalterFootball.com: "excellent character, strong leadership skills."
PFF: "The former Clemson quarterback's work ethic and intangibles will make him an attractive option..."
Perhaps there's more to this than whatever we the fans get to see via the media.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
ZWK
Footballguy
Rome Odunze at pick 9 was tempting. If it was Nabers I would've just taken him; I'm still trying to sort out how close I think Odunze is to that level. I don't see a big enough gap between Dallas Turner and the later 1st round DL options (Verse, DT Murphy, Latu, Chop Robinson, DT Newton) to take Turner at 9.
In this case I got three players in the trade-down from 9: Byron Murphy, Keon Coleman, and one of the 3rd rounders (which one is kind of complicated, because there were multiple trades).
I could've drafted Jonah Elliss or Gabe Murphy instead of Javon Baker, or Austin Booker or Brandon Dorlus instead of Puni. But I'm not very high on those 4. I'd rather take an EDGE earlier, or someone like Mohamed Kamara in the 4th.
If I'd stayed at 9 and taken Odunze, then the defensive line would be even weaker and I would've had fewer day 2 picks (just the one at 75, instead of 3 at 61, 83, and 99).
I do so a pretty big gap between Byron Murphy and Gervon Dexter, though don't know how the Bears' see it. And if they both turn out to be good there should still be plenty of snaps for both of them in the DT rotation.
Max Power
Footballguy
Its a tough call. I hope the Bears take the best available player. I think Odunze or Nabers can be special so I always vote for taking the elite talent vs more players approach. Trading down and taking a couple more role players isn't a bad option though. Bears are pretty thin on picks.
While I'm not overly concerned with the Bears approach this offseason, I do worry a bit about Poles' talent evaluation and Flus' job security. We draft guys that fit his defense and if he's out next year we may be in another position where talent doesn't match the system.
I really question Poles' WR evaluation. We've brought in some pretty bad ones. For that reason I like the idea of taking a sure thing early. I'm also starting to watch his DL evaluation a little closer. I like Dexter although I thought he was drafted too early, but I never liked the Pickens selection. The idea of another early DT scares me from the draft capital perspective. Pickens was the first pick in rd 3 before some very good players went and the kid seems rotational at best.
Max Power
Footballguy
I do like Verse, but would love to trade down a bit to get him. I think there are 9 elite prospects in this draft. Some reports are even saying there are only about 17-19 prospects with first round grades this year.
QB - Caleb, Daniels, JJ, Maye
WR - MHjr, Nabers, Odunze
TE - Bowers
OL - Alt
D - Turner (borderline elite)
I think the Bears have to trade down if there is still a QB left on the board. If a Team loves Bowers #9 is the prime spot to go get him.
If QBs go top-4 (assuming the Cards trade down) I love the idea I saw floated by 33rd team, that the Bears trade up from #9 to #5 to take Harrison. Also feel like if the top-4 QBs are gone, the price to trade up goes down a lot. Probably the 3rd and a future day 2 pick.
Would love to get the 2 best players in the draft if possible.
Max Power
Footballguy
I like it too if it doesn't cost the 25 1st. I think it becomes an overpay at that point. If I was certain that Odunze and Nabers are gone by 9, I'd think on it.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
I'm almost certain it would cost the '25 first as well.
If they did 9, '25 1st
For
5 and a high 3rd, I'd think hard about it.
I don't think it would cost the 2025 1st. In that scenario the QBs are gone (so less demand for the pick) and the Chargers have been pretty clear about wanting to trade down. I think 2025 2nd and 2024 3rd would easily be enough.
ETA: Though it could also all be smoke that QBs go 1-4. Frankly, I think it'd be really bad team management if that did happen, as NE shouldn't be taking a QB, and I personally think Daniels and McCarthy have too many red flags to be going that highly.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
Fair point. I forgot to take the 'qb tax' into consideration.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
Just to get some chatter going: with the draft a week away, who is your dream scenario at 1 and 9? What's your worst case scenario?
I've gone on record plenty of times saying Caleb/Odunze was my choices in the first, but I'd be just as happy with Nabers, Alt or Turner at 9.
Worst case (since Williams at 1 is a lock short of him wrecking his car in the next few days) is Poles taking a CB at 9. I really hate this year's crop of CB.
Actually, worst case is if Odunze, Nabers, Turner or Alt is there and they trade down. I'd probably lose my mind if that happened. I think there are 10 special players in this draft and I want quality over quantity.
I've gone on record plenty of times saying Caleb/Odunze was my choices in the first, but I'd be just as happy with Nabers, Alt or Turner at 9.
Worst case (since Williams at 1 is a lock short of him wrecking his car in the next few days) is Poles taking a CB at 9. I really hate this year's crop of CB.
Actually, worst case is if Odunze, Nabers, Turner or Alt is there and they trade down. I'd probably lose my mind if that happened. I think there are 10 special players in this draft and I want quality over quantity.
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Why do you hate this CB class? Its not the best class or anything, but I think its pretty on par with any of the classes of the last 8 years, other than the Stingley/Sauce/McDuffie class. I do really like DeJean and Mitchell, and Arnold feels safe, it maybe not the highest ceiling.
Personally, I'd much rather take a CB than Turner, though I'd have no issues with a trade down if Alt, Odunze, and Bowers (unlikely, but interesting) are gone.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
I just don't see a special enough talent at CB to take in the top 20. Just personal preference . I'm really not a huge fan of the defensive players in this draft as a whole. A lot of similar talent players. At 1 and nine, I want a sure thing stud.
Also, I forgot to list Bowers. While he wouldn't be at the top of my list, I certainly wouldn't hate it if they took him.
I do wonder if this defensive draft is underrated. Like in 2021, where the top 7 picks were all offense, and BY FAR the best player so far was a defensive player, and the best offensive player was an OL.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
Who would you want at 1 and 9? Would you take a CB or maybe trade down to get one?
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