Forget these five
It's not too early to discount some overhyped teams
Posted: Wednesday May 31, 2006 11:52AM; Updated: Wednesday May 31, 2006 1:03PM
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Ronnie Brown and the Dolphins won their last six games of the 2005 season.
Ronnie Brown and the Dolphins won their last six games of the 2005 season.
Bob Rosato/SI
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With my fellow scribes announcing their Super Bowl picks earlier and earlier, I'm taking a different tack: I'll tell you which five teams won't be there. I'm not talking about the easy picks, either. There won't be any 49ers, Packers, Texans or Raiders on this list. Instead, I'm going after those teams that have enough talent to possibly grace NFL-preview magazine covers but also have enough problems to leave their fans disappointed.
If I'm wrong about this, you can shoot me an angry e-mail. Until then, I've got a pretty bad feeling about these five teams.
1. Miami: The Dolphins will be a popular pick to win the AFC East for those who only look at how Miami finished 2005. Yes, coach Nick Saban did lead his team to six straight wins after a 3-7 start. But that run also included five victories against teams that didn't make the playoffs -- Oakland, Buffalo, San Diego, the New York Jets and Tennessee -- and a sixth win against a New England team resting its starters for the playoffs. The main question here is whether quarterback Daunte Culpepper can regain his Pro Bowl form. If he can't, then these Dolphins remind me of last season's Buffalo Bills, a team that rode into the year with a wave of high expectations and flopped under the pressure.
2. Philadelphia: If I'm an Eagles fan, I have some major concerns about this offense. It's starting to look a lot like it did back in the days before Terrell Owens blew into town. There isn't a receiver who really scares a defense. The running game isn't intimidating either, not when Brian Westbrook will be splitting carries with Ryan Moats and the oft-injured Correll Buckhalter. Even with a healthy Donovan McNabb back at quarterback, there are plenty of reasons to think that the best days of this perennial NFC contender have passed. One look at the competition in the NFC East -- where Washington, Dallas and the New York Giants have improved -- should cement that
3. Kansas City: This team could fall apart at any moment. First, they're old: A handful of key offensive starters are in their mid-30s, including quarterback Trent Green, Pro Bowl linemen Willie Roaf and Will Shields and leading receiver Eddie Kennison.
They're also playing with most of the same defensive personnel that finished 25th overall last season. Unless the Chiefs do the logical thing and sign free-agent cornerback Ty Law, there's no reason to think this season will end any differently than the last.
4. San Diego: Another AFC West team that hasn't done much to improve this offseason. I won't believe that Philip Rivers is a better quarterback than Drew Brees until I see him play in a Pro Bowl. I also can't understand how a team so desperate for a reliable receiver to take some pressure off Keenan McCardell pulls off such a weak trade. The Chargers ended up with Rashaun Woods, a first-round bust with the 49ers who couldn't find a role on that offensively challenged team. Tight end Antonio Gates is a great player, but he's not going to keep the passing game from being San Diego's downfall.
5. Minnesota: As much as I like new head coach Brad Childress, I have to question his personnel on offense. He needs Chester Taylor -- or someone else -- to prove the running game will be reliable. He needs Troy Williamson, last year's first-round pick, to mature into a legitimate big-play threat at receiver, especially now that Nate Burleson has moved on to Seattle. He also needs quarterback Brad Johnson, who turns 38 this season, to prove that he's still effective. Those are a lot of needs for a team that finished with a flourish in 2005 (the Vikings won seven of their final nine). It's unlikely that it'll find answers to all of them.
for SI.
