Choosing Your Draft Spot (1 Viewer)

[AeroFANatic]

It appears as one of my leagues may change over to a "choose your own draft slot" league this year. 12 team redraft serpentine. How it goes is like this...

There will still be a random draft that selects the order teams go. However, this isnt their slot. This is just simply where "in line" they are to choose their pick.

For instance, If I win the random draft #... maybe im not sold on the top of the draft, instead I choose to pick at #8. The person who was second in the random draft chooses to pick #2, etc. And so on.

My question is this....aside from the top 3 this year....what draft position would YOU select and why?

Also, do you like this idea or do you think it complicates matters?

Discuss.

 

[brett4pack]

this is how I've usually done it, It gives an advantage to those who do their hw so I like it

Things to keep in mind:

If players tend to fall in your draft middle picks are advantageous as you have more chances to catch a sliding player

This year I don't like late picks, there seems to be alot of discrepencies between late first and 2nd round picks so there is probably alot of value towards the middle and end of 2nd round

I don't think anyone is going to dispute that the first 3 picks are the best...

 

[John Mamula]

If players tend to fall in your draft middle picks are advantageous as you have more chances to catch a sliding player

Regardless, look at how you want to build your team and see where players' ADPs are landing and see if there is a slot that is most advantageous.

Also, if some owners are overvaluing RBs you don't like in the first round it is probably better to drop.

I always like being near a turn regardless of beginning or end as you can be a little more creative strategically based on what the one or two teams are likely to do allowing you to wait on a pick for a round getting a little extra value throughout the draft.

 

[coachjim]

If players tend to fall in your draft middle picks are advantageous as you have more chances to catch a sliding player

Regardless, look at how you want to build your team and see where players' ADPs are landing and see if there is a slot that is most advantageous.

Also, if some owners are overvaluing RBs you don't like in the first round it is probably better to drop.

I always like being near a turn regardless of beginning or end as you can be a little more creative strategically based on what the one or two teams are likely to do allowing you to wait on a pick for a round getting a little extra value throughout the draft.

I am also a proponent of drafting at the turn. Either end is OK. If for no other reason you have plenty of time to take a whiz and get a fresh brewski before your turn comes up again.

 

[sinatravolta]

If players tend to fall in your draft middle picks are advantageous as you have more chances to catch a sliding player

Regardless, look at how you want to build your team and see where players' ADPs are landing and see if there is a slot that is most advantageous.

Also, if some owners are overvaluing RBs you don't like in the first round it is probably better to drop.

I always like being near a turn regardless of beginning or end as you can be a little more creative strategically based on what the one or two teams are likely to do allowing you to wait on a pick for a round getting a little extra value throughout the draft.

I am also a proponent of drafting at the turn. Either end is OK. If for no other reason you have plenty of time to take a whiz and get a fresh brewski before your turn comes up again.

Not sure why you guys are confused about the middle of the snake notion. It is for this reason that once you get past the first couple of rounds - the middle of the snake is the spot to be. I agree with the notion that the first few picks are best - because there's a big drop-off in the talent after that - and there's the notion that there are often still some really good players at the beginning of the 3rd round, but not once you get past that.

Anyway - back to the middle spot. If you are at the very end of the snake - the odds that 2 people will be of good value when you pick are slim. So you're really only hoping to catch someone of good value for about half your picks. When you're in the middle of the snake, you have the best odds that someone of good value will fall to your spot because there's a chance for every one of your picks. As you get closer to the edges the likelihood of catching guys at good value decreases.

 

[inca911]

Based on projections established from your scoring system, look for the breaks in the talent pool. You want to pick a draft spot that gets you a player before the dropoff as frequently as possible. It's impossible to know which draft slot that is until you crunch the numbers in your league.

That said, getting one of the top three/four players in the first round is likely your best bet even if it results in picking players after dropoffs in other rounds. The initial dropoff is huge in most scoring systems, which is why God made auctions.

 

[Mooks77]

It appears as one of my leagues may change over to a "choose your own draft slot" league this year. 12 team redraft serpentine. How it goes is like this...

There will still be a random draft that selects the order teams go. However, this isnt their slot. This is just simply where "in line" they are to choose their pick.

For instance, If I win the random draft #... maybe im not sold on the top of the draft, instead I choose to pick at #8. The person who was second in the random draft chooses to pick #2, etc. And so on.

My question is this....aside from the top 3 this year....what draft position would YOU select and why?

Also, do you like this idea or do you think it complicates matters?

Discuss.

I think it's a great idea, and given the choice would take position #3 in a hearbeat.

 

[ScottNorwood]

#1 is always the best pick in fantasy football. You get the top player and usually you get 2 fantastic players at the next turn.

 

[John Mamula]

#1 is always the best pick in fantasy football. You get the top player and usually you get 2 fantastic players at the next turn.

Link?I bet you would find that statistically it is no better or worse. Last year in WCOFF I believe the teams near the turns did the best but a bigger indicator of success was LJ on a team.

Depends what you do with it. Regardless of my personal preferences, I never feel I am at a disadvantage regardless of where I draft. There is a lot more to the draft than the first couple rounds.

 

[rzrback77]

If players tend to fall in your draft middle picks are advantageous as you have more chances to catch a sliding player

Regardless, look at how you want to build your team and see where players' ADPs are landing and see if there is a slot that is most advantageous.

Also, if some owners are overvaluing RBs you don't like in the first round it is probably better to drop.

I always like being near a turn regardless of beginning or end as you can be a little more creative strategically based on what the one or two teams are likely to do allowing you to wait on a pick for a round getting a little extra value throughout the draft.

I am also a proponent of drafting at the turn. Either end is OK. If for no other reason you have plenty of time to take a whiz and get a fresh brewski before your turn comes up again.

Not sure why you guys are confused about the middle of the snake notion. It is for this reason that once you get past the first couple of rounds - the middle of the snake is the spot to be. I agree with the notion that the first few picks are best - because there's a big drop-off in the talent after that - and there's the notion that there are often still some really good players at the beginning of the 3rd round, but not once you get past that.

Anyway - back to the middle spot. If you are at the very end of the snake - the odds that 2 people will be of good value when you pick are slim. So you're really only hoping to catch someone of good value for about half your picks. When you're in the middle of the snake, you have the best odds that someone of good value will fall to your spot because there's a chance for every one of your picks. As you get closer to the edges the likelihood of catching guys at good value decreases.

Why do you think one player drops in the middle and two never drop? I see no difference in position to catch "dropping value".

 

[ScottNorwood]

#1 is always the best pick in fantasy football. You get the top player and usually you get 2 fantastic players at the next turn.

Link?I bet you would find that statistically it is no better or worse. Last year in WCOFF I believe the teams near the turns did the best but a bigger indicator of success was LJ on a team.

Depends what you do with it. Regardless of my personal preferences, I never feel I am at a disadvantage regardless of where I draft. There is a lot more to the draft than the first couple rounds.

What kind of link do you want? I always have bad teams with late picks and good teams with early picks. Not the most scientific analysis, but it seems to happen like that like clockwork for me.

 

[John Mamula]

#1 is always the best pick in fantasy football.  You get the top player and usually you get 2 fantastic players at the next turn.

Link?I bet you would find that statistically it is no better or worse. Last year in WCOFF I believe the teams near the turns did the best but a bigger indicator of success was LJ on a team.

Depends what you do with it. Regardless of my personal preferences, I never feel I am at a disadvantage regardless of where I draft. There is a lot more to the draft than the first couple rounds.

What kind of link do you want? I always have bad teams with late picks and good teams with early picks. Not the most scientific analysis, but it seems to happen like that like clockwork for me.

That tells me more about how you draft than the unfairness of draft order.

 

[ScottNorwood]

#1 is always the best pick in fantasy football. You get the top player and usually you get 2 fantastic players at the next turn.

Link?I bet you would find that statistically it is no better or worse. Last year in WCOFF I believe the teams near the turns did the best but a bigger indicator of success was LJ on a team.

Depends what you do with it. Regardless of my personal preferences, I never feel I am at a disadvantage regardless of where I draft. There is a lot more to the draft than the first couple rounds.

What kind of link do you want? I always have bad teams with late picks and good teams with early picks. Not the most scientific analysis, but it seems to happen like that like clockwork for me.

That tells me more about how you draft than the unfairness of draft order.

How exactly do I draft good sir?

 

[John Mamula]

How exactly do I draft good sir?

I don't know. But if anecdotally I continually did worse the later I picked I would look why that was as if you look at a good sample size of leagues you will see that draft position is not statistically significant in determining success.I'm not saying you draft poorly, but there may be some holes in your draft strategy that while they work well for early draft slots, they don't translate for late draft slots.

Bottom line, just because you do better with the 1st pick of the draft does not make it

always the best pick in fantasy football.

It just makes it the best pick for you apparently.So you can either hope to always get an early draft pick or figure out what you're doing wrong with your late draft picks.

 

[ScottNorwood]

So you can either hope to always get an early draft pick or figure out what you're doing wrong with your late draft picks.

My problem with late picks have always been getting bad RBs there. Barlow (04), Kevin Jones, Dillon etc.This year it's going to be Chad Johnson, Peyton Manning or Steve Smith if I'm caught at the back end of the draft

Thanks bagger

 

[John Mamula]

So you can either hope to always get an early draft pick or figure out what you're doing wrong with your late draft picks.

My problem with late picks have always been getting bad RBs there. Barlow (04), Kevin Jones, Dillon etc.This year it's going to be Chad Johnson, Peyton Manning or Steve Smith if I'm caught at the back end of the draft

Thanks bagger

YOU ARE WELCOMEbtw, I think CJ, Manning, or Smiff are no better at the end of the first round. Try a Rudi Johnson, Lamont Jordan, or Westbrook depending on your scoring system.

bagger RB rule of drafting #1: Avoid all RBs wif last name of Jones.

 

[NoFBinLA]

I find that no matter where I draft, my success varies. Sometimes I work well in the middle - sometimes I have great success at the turns.

I think it can vary with each draft and also depends on the size of the league, the rules and the people who draft around you.

You may feel more comfortable at the turn or more comfortable in the middle, but I think - for myself - WHERE I draft isn't as important as HOW I react to how others are drafting (ie, how to note what players are dropping and what trends are happening) Last year in one draft mid-range RB's were being ignored in favor of QB's, WR's and reaches at TE - so I grabbed every good RB I saw - and was able to survive losing BOTH McAllister and Westbrook, nearly making the championship (friggin Tiki Barber outscored LJ my last week. )

That was all from a middle spot in a 14 team league. I picked in the middle in a 12 team and didn't do nearly as well.

Virtually the same spot. Different draft, different league, different people - different result.

 

[John Mamula]

If players tend to fall in your draft middle picks are advantageous as you have more chances to catch a sliding player

Regardless, look at how you want to build your team and see where players' ADPs are landing and see if there is a slot that is most advantageous.

Also, if some owners are overvaluing RBs you don't like in the first round it is probably better to drop.

I always like being near a turn regardless of beginning or end as you can be a little more creative strategically based on what the one or two teams are likely to do allowing you to wait on a pick for a round getting a little extra value throughout the draft.

I am also a proponent of drafting at the turn. Either end is OK. If for no other reason you have plenty of time to take a whiz and get a fresh brewski before your turn comes up again.

Not sure why you guys are confused about the middle of the snake notion. It is for this reason that once you get past the first couple of rounds - the middle of the snake is the spot to be. I agree with the notion that the first few picks are best - because there's a big drop-off in the talent after that - and there's the notion that there are often still some really good players at the beginning of the 3rd round, but not once you get past that.

Anyway - back to the middle spot. If you are at the very end of the snake - the odds that 2 people will be of good value when you pick are slim. So you're really only hoping to catch someone of good value for about half your picks. When you're in the middle of the snake, you have the best odds that someone of good value will fall to your spot because there's a chance for every one of your picks. As you get closer to the edges the likelihood of catching guys at good value decreases.

Why do you think one player drops in the middle and two never drop? I see no difference in position to catch "dropping value".

agreed.

 

[Thorpe]

#1 is always the best pick in fantasy football. You get the top player and usually you get 2 fantastic players at the next turn.

Link?I bet you would find that statistically it is no better or worse. Last year in WCOFF I believe the teams near the turns did the best but a bigger indicator of success was LJ on a team.

Depends what you do with it. Regardless of my personal preferences, I never feel I am at a disadvantage regardless of where I draft. There is a lot more to the draft than the first couple rounds.

What kind of link do you want? I always have bad teams with late picks and good teams with early picks. Not the most scientific analysis, but it seems to happen like that like clockwork for me.

Footballguys studied this 5 years ago, and they concluded you want to oick as close to 1 as possible, The reason was that the difference in talent between 1 and 6 is much greater than between 11 and 16 (or any other combination 6 apart).

 

[M & M]

I always sit as close to the beer as possible. It saves having to stumble or being distracted by that horrible sensation of being out of beer as your turn comes around.

 

[dickey moe]

bagger RB rule of drafting #1: Avoid all RBs wif last name of Jones.

Even if Thomas is available in Round 2?

 

[John Mamula]

Footballguys studied this 5 years ago, and they concluded you want to oick as close to 1 as possible, The reason was that the difference in talent between 1 and 6 is much greater than between 11 and 16 (or any other combination 6 apart).

i vaguely remember this article but do not remember the same conclusion.

 

[jurb26]

I don't even see this as close this year. The place to draft from is #4. Last year it was #2, this year #4.

I envision a start of the draft as something like this at the 4 spot:

Portis

Parker/Lewis/Rubin

R.Moss

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I don't even see this as close this year. The place to draft from is #4. Last year it was #2, this year #4.

I envision a start of the draft as something like this at the 4 spot:

Portis

Parker/Lewis/Rubin

R.Moss

Is this the "Parker/Lewis" Can't Lose theorem of drafting?

This year everyone covets a Top 3 pick, as that's seen as the "big dropoff" in redraft leagues. Namely, after LT2, LJ and SA the talent rolls off quickly. Some argue that the next 1-6 backs all have shots at competing with those 3, but you'd be a contrarian if you were completely in that camp.

In general, the advantage of drafting "near a turn" (1,2,3 or 10,11,12) is that you can manage the players you "let slide" a few picks more effectively than from the middle 6. For example, in Round 9, you have 9.10 and then 10.03. You notice that teams 11 and 12 already have QBs but only 2 WRs. You had a QB rated at 9.10 or higher, but you can let him slide and take a WR, figuring the QB will be there on the comeback.

You can also control the draft more from the turns - going QB/QB or starting the QB2 or TE or D or K runs can be done from these spots. Sitting in the middle, far fewer teams will react to what you do. Seeing 2 QBs come off the board at picks 8/9 or 9/10 will start a run that will ripple through the rest of the round. You are more "proactive" near the turns, and more "reactive" in the middle.

My

 

[jurb26]

I don't even see this as close this year. The place to draft from is #4. Last year it was #2, this year #4.

I envision a start of the draft as something like this at the 4 spot:

Portis

Parker/Lewis/Rubin

R.Moss

Is this the "Parker/Lewis" Can't Lose theorem of drafting?

This year everyone covets a Top 3 pick, as that's seen as the "big dropoff" in redraft leagues. Namely, after LT2, LJ and SA the talent rolls off quickly. Some argue that the next 1-6 backs all have shots at competing with those 3, but you'd be a contrarian if you were completely in that camp.

In general, the advantage of drafting "near a turn" (1,2,3 or 10,11,12) is that you can manage the players you "let slide" a few picks more effectively than from the middle 6. For example, in Round 9, you have 9.10 and then 10.03. You notice that teams 11 and 12 already have QBs but only 2 WRs. You had a QB rated at 9.10 or higher, but you can let him slide and take a WR, figuring the QB will be there on the comeback.

You can also control the draft more from the turns - going QB/QB or starting the QB2 or TE or D or K runs can be done from these spots. Sitting in the middle, far fewer teams will react to what you do. Seeing 2 QBs come off the board at picks 8/9 or 9/10 will start a run that will ripple through the rest of the round. You are more "proactive" near the turns, and more "reactive" in the middle.

My

Portis should easily be up there with your "top 3." That is the main reason that the #4 pick is the place to be IMO. JUst because people think there will be a top 3 and then a drop off doesn't make it so. These are probably the same people that were saying last year that there was LT and then a drop off.... I've always loved watching people take those turn picks and think they can dictate drafts. I really don't know why it impresses some people so much when they watch a guy draft 2 players at the same position back to back. If you've been drafting long enough, you knew to expect it and have already planeed around that well in advance. Hell, I love when people start runs like that.

 

[dlptown]

I actually moved down last year from #4 targeting Portis around #10 as I wasn't set on SA or Holmes last year- oops on SA, but I wasn't sold on him. I moved to #8, took Portis and picked up their 8th round pick in exchange. I got D Davis in the 2nd.

Personally, if I am not top 3 I choose to be down near the turn to get 2 good RB's (I typically take 3 RB's in the first four rounds- if for no other reason that I like to bundle picks and the convenience to grab beer and grub.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I actually moved down last year from #4 targeting Portis around #10 as I wasn't set on SA or Holmes last year- oops on SA, but I wasn't sold on him. I moved to #8, took Portis and picked up their 8th round pick in exchange. I got D Davis in the 2nd.

Personally, if I am not top 3 I choose to be down near the turn to get 2 good RB's (I typically take 3 RB's in the first four rounds- if for no other reason that I like to bundle picks and the convenience to grab beer and grub.

This brings up a good question to the original poster:Can you trade the pick you select?

If so, always pick the highest available. That gives the most bargaining power. Even if you want to move down later, you have "more value" to work with towards a trade.

 

[AeroFANatic]

I actually moved down last year from #4 targeting Portis around #10 as I wasn't set on SA or Holmes last year- oops on SA, but I wasn't sold on him. I moved to #8, took Portis and picked up their 8th round pick in exchange. I got D Davis in the 2nd.

Personally, if I am not top 3 I choose to be down near the turn to get 2 good RB's (I typically take 3 RB's in the first four rounds- if for no other reason that I like to bundle picks and the convenience to grab beer and grub.

This brings up a good question to the original poster:Can you trade the pick you select?

If so, always pick the highest available. That gives the most bargaining power. Even if you want to move down later, you have "more value" to work with towards a trade.

Yes. You can make a trade if you choose. Im still up in the air about WHERE I want to draft. I guess I have to wait till preseason...see if there are any injuries, etc.

 

[videoguy505]

Here's an old article.

And another.

All show drafting as close to 1 as possible is usually better. After that, avoid the latter half of the serpentine order (9 and 10 in a 12 team league) until you hit the end, where you can double-back on your picks

But,

While there is some variance between the different draft slots, an owner can draft a competitive team at any of them if he is willing to adjust his strategy as the draft goes on. If an owner is [patient], prepared and willing to follow his own path the draft will open up to him and he will find himself with a competitive team at the end of the day.

 

[inca911]

The only way to truly know the best spot to pick is to sum the points-above-baseline projections for starting players taken in perfect draft order for an entire draft. This calculation will be based on the scoring system in your league and your projections. At the end of the perfect draft, one team will have the highest points-above-baseline for its starters. That's the best draft position.

The problem is that your projections are imperfect, so the value of doing this work is based on projections being accurate. However, not doing the exercise is just lazy and guessing doesn't add value to the discussion so here is an example:

Based on Dodds offensive projections, I selected the top 20 RBs and top 20 WRs and set the baseline for each position as the 20th player. This will skew the data, but that's ok as we're talking about the principle. This exercise provides the points-above-baseline for these players in a VBD fashion.

Player.............Total Points Scored.....Points above baseline

Larry Johnson............359.5........................186.7

Shaun Alexander........310.6.......................137.8

LaDainian Tomlinson...308.2........................135.4

Tiki Barber .................265.9........................93.1

Clinton Portis..............249.8........................77

Chad Johnson.............208...........................67.4

Steven Jackson...........225.7........................52.9

Terrell Owens.............194.2.........................53.6

Lamont Jordan............224.7.........................51.9

Steve Smith...............190.9.........................50.3

Larry Fitzgerald...........187.6.........................47

Torry Holt...................184.6........................44

Marvin Harrison...........181.9.......................41.3

Rudi Johnson..............212.9........................40.1

Anquan Boldin............181.3........................40.7

Chris Chambers.........175.4........................34.8

Ronnie Brown.............201.8.........................29

Hines Ward................168.1........................27.5

Randy Moss...............166.8.........................26.2

Cadillac Williams.........196.7.......................23.9

There is a clear difference in distribution of VBD points-above-baseline between the few top players and the rest of the group. The difference in this spread is not the same as the distribution for the rest of the players. Therefore, it's best to pick early in this example since you are able to distance yourself from the pack. Using real numbers and a scoring system which equalizes value across positions, I have seen a pick as low as #6 be the third best option behind picks #1 and #2. Showing this data to the league made changing to an auction an easy sell.

With Dodds' latest 2007 projections, picking #1 provides a 50 point head start which can't be made up by picking in any other position. Do the math in your draft league and the best positions will be clear.

 

[jurb26]

The only way to truly know the best spot to pick is to sum the points-above-baseline projections for starting players taken in perfect draft order for an entire draft. This calculation will be based on the scoring system in your league and your projections. At the end of the perfect draft, one team will have the highest points-above-baseline for its starters. That's the best draft position.

The problem is that your projections are imperfect, so the value of doing this work is based on projections being accurate. However, not doing the exercise is just lazy and guessing doesn't add value to the discussion so here is an example:

Based on Dodds offensive projections, I selected the top 20 RBs and top 20 WRs and set the baseline for each position as the 20th player. This will skew the data, but that's ok as we're talking about the principle. This exercise provides the points-above-baseline for these players in a VBD fashion.

Player.............Total Points Scored.....Points above baseline

Larry Johnson............359.5........................186.7

Shaun Alexander........310.6.......................137.8

LaDainian Tomlinson...308.2........................135.4

Tiki Barber .................265.9........................93.1

Clinton Portis..............249.8........................77

Chad Johnson.............208...........................67.4

Steven Jackson...........225.7........................52.9

Terrell Owens.............194.2.........................53.6

Lamont Jordan............224.7.........................51.9

Steve Smith...............190.9.........................50.3

Larry Fitzgerald...........187.6.........................47

Torry Holt...................184.6........................44

Marvin Harrison...........181.9.......................41.3

Rudi Johnson..............212.9........................40.1

Anquan Boldin............181.3........................40.7

Chris Chambers.........175.4........................34.8

Ronnie Brown.............201.8.........................29

Hines Ward................168.1........................27.5

Randy Moss...............166.8.........................26.2

Cadillac Williams.........196.7.......................23.9

There is a clear difference in distribution of VBD points-above-baseline between the few top players and the rest of the group. The difference in this spread is not the same as the distribution for the rest of the players. Therefore, it's best to pick early in this example since you are able to distance yourself from the pack. Using real numbers and a scoring system which equalizes value across positions, I have seen a pick as low as #6 be the third best option behind picks #1 and #2. Showing this data to the league made changing to an auction an easy sell.

With Dodds' latest 2007 projections, picking #1 provides a 50 point head start which can't be made up by picking in any other position. Do the math in your draft league and the best positions will be clear.

My current projections would would have Portis/Lewis/Moss at 298/220/248 FPs in that same scoring system.Ohh and none of LJ/SA/LT are that high in my projections. Projecting 3 guys for 20+ TDs is just if you ask me. Yes, I do realize it happend last year.

 

[Dancing Bear]

How many years have you been in the league? Are your competitors the same? Has the league's scoring system changed in anyway?

You can gain a lot about your opponents tendencies and adjust your strategies during the draft based on their probability to respond ...

The draft is certainly one of the key elements to your success, but so is luck. So is being able to assess free agency when something goes wrong [and it will].

If you drafted P. Manning last year, then you probably paid too much for him and you were very likely disappointed by his performance even though he finished among the league leaders. He was pedestrian up until the Bye [except for week 4], and then he completely let you down during the Fantasy Playoffs.

If you were lucky and gambled on Holmes getting hurt and picked LJ then you are feeling pretty good.

If instead you picked up a guy like McGahee or R. Moss, then you were highly disappointed.

What's my point? Don't worry about the position you have. Do your homework, assess the best you can and then take the best available player when it's your turn.

I will say that for me it is more convenient and relaxing to be on one of the turns, because your homework and assessments are the cleanest and un-interrupted.

Worrying about this VBD or that is not useful in my opinion. Rarely do any of the projections match the eventual outcome anyway. Maybe 25% of the time will the projection/ ranking be anywhere close to the prediction for any given player.

In closing, I would say that Fantasy Football is more than just statistics and math. It is also about passion and emotion. I have favorite players that I like and would prefer to have on my team in spite of any projected dis-advantage compared with their peers. My rankings incorporate this extra variable as well ...

 

[John Mamula]

Here's an old article.

And another.

All show drafting as close to 1 as possible is usually better. After that, avoid the latter half of the serpentine order (9 and 10 in a 12 team league) until you hit the end, where you can double-back on your picks

But,

While there is some variance between the different draft slots, an owner can draft a competitive team at any of them if he is willing to adjust his strategy as the draft goes on. If an owner is [patient], prepared and willing to follow his own path the draft will open up to him and he will find himself with a competitive team at the end of the day.

Both of these articles are flawed in that they do not take into account ADP and assume that all drafters always take the highest VBD player on the board which is never the case.While that is fun to look at in a vacuum, in reality there are so many inefficiencies in drafts that you can exploit from any draft slot that you shouldn't worry about where you draft.

 

[John Mamula]

The only way to truly know the best spot to pick is to sum the points-above-baseline projections for starting players taken in perfect draft order for an entire draft. This calculation will be based on the scoring system in your league and your projections. At the end of the perfect draft, one team will have the highest points-above-baseline for its starters. That's the best draft position.

The problem is that your projections are imperfect, so the value of doing this work is based on projections being accurate. However, not doing the exercise is just lazy and guessing doesn't add value to the discussion so here is an example:

Based on Dodds offensive projections, I selected the top 20 RBs and top 20 WRs and set the baseline for each position as the 20th player. This will skew the data, but that's ok as we're talking about the principle. This exercise provides the points-above-baseline for these players in a VBD fashion.

Player.............Total Points Scored.....Points above baseline

Larry Johnson............359.5........................186.7

Shaun Alexander........310.6.......................137.8

LaDainian Tomlinson...308.2........................135.4

Tiki Barber .................265.9........................93.1

Clinton Portis..............249.8........................77

Chad Johnson.............208...........................67.4

Steven Jackson...........225.7........................52.9

Terrell Owens.............194.2.........................53.6

Lamont Jordan............224.7.........................51.9

Steve Smith...............190.9.........................50.3

Larry Fitzgerald...........187.6.........................47

Torry Holt...................184.6........................44

Marvin Harrison...........181.9.......................41.3

Rudi Johnson..............212.9........................40.1

Anquan Boldin............181.3........................40.7

Chris Chambers.........175.4........................34.8

Ronnie Brown.............201.8.........................29

Hines Ward................168.1........................27.5

Randy Moss...............166.8.........................26.2

Cadillac Williams.........196.7.......................23.9

There is a clear difference in distribution of VBD points-above-baseline between the few top players and the rest of the group. The difference in this spread is not the same as the distribution for the rest of the players. Therefore, it's best to pick early in this example since you are able to distance yourself from the pack. Using real numbers and a scoring system which equalizes value across positions, I have seen a pick as low as #6 be the third best option behind picks #1 and #2. Showing this data to the league made changing to an auction an easy sell.

With Dodds' latest 2007 projections, picking #1 provides a 50 point head start which can't be made up by picking in any other position. Do the math in your draft league and the best positions will be clear.

at baseline drafting.

 

[brettdj]

I like to be 3 from either end. Much easier to predict 2 picks from 2 teams during the mid section of a draft. This lets you determine what position you should draft to get the best value at each pick.

 

[inca911]

at baseline drafting.

I don't like any drafts, and do auctions in all my leagues. Other than using actual projections and player values, what alternative do you suggest for helping this poster select the best draft position? Ouija board? Tea Leaves? Your general opinion that any turn is best?ADPs are based on perceptions of player values, which are based on preceptions of player projections. If you use ADP you are using value-based projections, regardless of the name you assign to them. I agree that assuming all drafters will strictly follow VBD or any other ranking doesn't make sense, and strictly following VBD isn't a critical component in looking at draft positions. What is important is the relative values of players and positions of the value dropoffs in relation to the draft order. This isn't rocket science: you want a position which makes it likely you select before more dropoffs than after. These dropoffs are more pronounced in the first two rounds. If you think LJ is 60 points better than any other player, and all players are more tightly packed after him, then you want the #1 pick.

 

[John Mamula]

  at baseline drafting.

I don't like any drafts, and do auctions in all my leagues. Other than using actual projections and player values, what alternative do you suggest for helping this poster select the best draft position? Ouija board? Tea Leaves? Your general opinion that any turn is best?ADPs are based on perceptions of player values, which are based on preceptions of player projections. If you use ADP you are using value-based projections, regardless of the name you assign to them. I agree that assuming all drafters will strictly follow VBD or any other ranking doesn't make sense, and strictly following VBD isn't a critical component in looking at draft positions. What is important is the relative values of players and positions of the value dropoffs in relation to the draft order. This isn't rocket science: you want a position which makes it likely you select before more dropoffs than after. These dropoffs are more pronounced in the first two rounds. If you think LJ is 60 points better than any other player, and all players are more tightly packed after him, then you want the #1 pick.

I believe you should use actual projections in a draft but using them in conjunction with baselines (especially static baselines) creates the illusion that you are getting value in each individual round at the expense of overall team value. There is a better case to be made for DVBD but even then there are some fundamental flaws. Bottom line, players aren't tightly packed after LJ.If you project players that are in line with historic average values for positional rank, cross check these rankings to player ADP to find value, analyze your draft slot to mock a team that will give you the best points overall and create a strategy off that, you are in a much better position than saying RBx has a larger dropoff than WRy at this point in time so I will go with RBx. The reason is that VBD does not look past the next round.

You are better off seeing when value presents itself and waiting on a TE or QB instead of going with VBD telling you to pick Gonzo in the 4th. While you think you are getting the most value picking Gonzo that early, you are actually costing your team points.

VBD drafts individually, the optimal drafting strategy drafts on a team-wide basis.

 

[JimmyD]

If players tend to fall in your draft middle picks are advantageous as you have more chances to catch a sliding player

Regardless, look at how you want to build your team and see where players' ADPs are landing and see if there is a slot that is most advantageous.

Also, if some owners are overvaluing RBs you don't like in the first round it is probably better to drop.

I always like being near a turn regardless of beginning or end as you can be a little more creative strategically based on what the one or two teams are likely to do allowing you to wait on a pick for a round getting a little extra value throughout the draft.

I am also a proponent of drafting at the turn. Either end is OK. If for no other reason you have plenty of time to take a whiz and get a fresh brewski before your turn comes up again.

Not sure why you guys are confused about the middle of the snake notion. It is for this reason that once you get past the first couple of rounds - the middle of the snake is the spot to be. I agree with the notion that the first few picks are best - because there's a big drop-off in the talent after that - and there's the notion that there are often still some really good players at the beginning of the 3rd round, but not once you get past that.

Anyway - back to the middle spot. If you are at the very end of the snake - the odds that 2 people will be of good value when you pick are slim. So you're really only hoping to catch someone of good value for about half your picks. When you're in the middle of the snake, you have the best odds that someone of good value will fall to your spot because there's a chance for every one of your picks. As you get closer to the edges the likelihood of catching guys at good value decreases.

Why do you think one player drops in the middle and two never drop? I see no difference in position to catch "dropping value".

agreed.

I think what is being said is that at the middle spot you have a better chance of getting value than at the ends.How I look at is that if I'm drafting at the ends, there is no game of chance to be had. You simply take the 2 best players for your team. Because if you are looking at say 3 players there is almost zero chance that the 3rd guy drops back to you after 22 picks. At the ends you do have the advantage of taking guys that fall, happens every year. But you also are at a disadvantage if there is someone you want at 5.01, but his ADP 6.04 you take him at 5.01 or hope for 6.12? If this guy is taken before 6.112 there's a huge drop off, So you pull the trigger at 5.01 thus losing that said value.

However in the middle if you are looking at 2-3 guys you now have to play the game of which one do I take now and hope the other slides 12picks?

I prefer the middle just because of that part of the game. The part where you look at the other guys teams after you and decide what will they do?

Lot of fun in the middle.

 

[GregR_2]

I think inca911 is getting a bum rap. I may not agree with the exact method, but I think he's closest to the "best" answer of anyone so far.

The idea his approach gets at is that you really can't say for sure what spot is best until you figure out how you think the draft is likely to go... and from that decide which spot to take based on a combination of which resulting teams you like best, and which teams are most likely to be in a spot to take down additional value if the draft deviates from what you're projecting.

To me, this isn't any departure from what you should normally go through for a draft. You should go through every round, drafting for the other teams the way you think they will, and see what choices you face at every pick. Go through the draft several different ways (taking Gates in the 3rd instead of a WR, taking a stud WR 2nd, etc) and note what affect each choice has on the rest of your draft.

Once you've done that for a draft spot you have a good idea what you'll face and what the best teams you are likely to put together from that spot is.

Now the challenge is that you don't have to do this for just 1 spot, but you should be considering it for every spot you are interested in. While I wouldn't do it for all 12, I might do it for a few anyway and try to get a feel for the differences from different areas of the draft.