Chris Henry and 2007, where to rank. (1 Viewer)

[Family Matters]

Now that Washington is gone from Cinncy, where do you see Henry ranking in 2007? There is still some legal issues that may affect his games played, but it almost seems as though Cinncy is expecting him to perform as the WR3. Wouldn't they keep Washington if they felt Henry was going to be an ongoing issue or released?

I'm not interested in stirring the character pot as we all know where we stand with that. But where does he rank in terms of being a fantsy player this year? Or will the Bengals draft or acquire a FA and move on without him?

 

[gocats]

washington was never a problem

 

[Banger]

I don't think it really reflects his ranking one way or the other. Washington had 9 catches for 115 yards so it's not as if there's a void to fill. Henry is still the #3 behind two VERY good wr's.

 

[Kirby]

They like Perry.. he's the one that will be taking over for Henry when he sitting out games.

 

[David Yudkin]

How many 3rd receivers put up decent seasons let alone back to back? I suspect not many. Unless he breaks into the starting lineup I would think he's at best a borderline WR3 and might be considered somewhere in the WR40-50 range. He had quite a few TD receptions last year and I would be hard pressed to seem him push double digits.

 

[JH56]

Wasn't Henry in the top 30 or so WITH missing three games last year?

Palmer looks for him in the red zone-if Cincy does not add a pass catching tight end I do not see that changing much.

If you can get him as the 40-50 WR off the board you will be making a great move.

I agree through that the Washington move is irrelevant to C Henry

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

I dont think that has nothing to do with Henry....better question would be is how does C.Henry affect the value of Housh and Ocho going foward.....

 

[Two Deep]

Here is a guy probably more talented than the 2 guys in front of him but he has a bad head. With Housmandouchebag missing games via injury and if Henry can stay out of jail I can see him putting up decent numbers and taking over the #2 job in 2008.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Let's see if he can make it through the offseason without getting arrested before we talk about his 07 value...

He still might get suspended in 2007 for charges he pled out to after his 2006 suspension, and one more arrest might be the straw that breaks the bengals back.

I do really like the WR3 slot in Cincy, which is why Im watching the following closely:

1) How Reggie McNeal's development goes at WR

2) How Tab Perry's recovery from a severe hip injury goes

 

[David Yudkin]

How many 3rd receivers put up decent seasons let alone back to back? I suspect not many. Unless he breaks into the starting lineup I would think he's at best a borderline WR3 and might be considered somewhere in the WR40-50 range. He had quite a few TD receptions last year and I would be hard pressed to seem him push double digits.

I double checked on this one to provide some insight on how often teams have 3 receivers that scored 100+ fantasy points (0 PPR). In the past 10 season, it's happened a total of 7 times (counting the 2006 Bengals).Year, Team (Player, Rank Year X, Rank Year X+1)2004 ColtsMarvin Harrison 5, 9Reggie Wayne 8, 21Brandon Stokely 11, 692004 VikingsNate Burleson 16, 93Randy Moss 19, Not ApplicableMarcus Robinson 34, 492002 RaidersJerry Rce 11, 37Jerry Porter 28, 90Tim Brown 39, 641999 RamsIsaac Bruce 6, 6Torry Holt 35, 7Az-Zahir Hakim 30, 401998 49ersTerrell Owens 3, 47Jerry Rice 8, 38JJ Stokes 26, 651997 RavensDerrick Alexander 12, 30Michael Jackson 29, 77Jermaine Lewis 35, 34As I mentioned initially, the track record is not really there for teams to have 3 guys that score 100+ points on the same squad of receivers and doing it again is quite rare. IMO, if you are looking at Henry you better hope something happens to Ocho Cinco or Housh for him to really have a lot of value in 2007.

 

[bshipper]

Let's look from 2005 to 2006.

2005 - pts (rank)

CJ = 201 (4), TJ = 150 (14), Henry = 78 (51)

Total = 429

2006 - pts (rank)

CJ = 191 (5), TJ = 171 (11), Henry = 121 (32)

Total = 483

So they added 54 total points from 2005 to 2006, with CJ -10 and TJ +21. Looking at 2007, if Henry plays more than the 13 games he played this year, why would he not put up the same numbers?

My only concern is that they have what appears to be an easier schedule coming up, which could mean Rudi gets back to his 1400+ yards rushing and cuts into the receiving production. He had 1309 compared to 1458 in 2005 and the Bengals as a team had around 250 yards less on the ground in 2006.

 

[TME]

Henry will get his, but the problem is, you do not know when. He weekly scoring is and will continue to be very volatile and rely on TDs. Housh and CJ each caught about 90 balls last year and Henry added 36. There are a lot to go around and Housh actually caught more than his fair share last year in only 14 games. I would not expect Housh to get that many targets and/or receptions next year per game, especially if Chris Perry is back. They both get those intermediate type touches. Henry is more downfield in his routes like CJ.

The Bengals use him as a weapon. Depth chart has nothing to do with it. He will take reps as the # 2 WR just as he did last year in certain formations. They want this guy on the field and try to get him the ball downfield and in the red zone.

I think you can bank on 8 TDs with upside to 10, but yardage may be limited. Long story short, I think you can expect what he gave you last year.

Longer term is interesting. Keep your eye on Housh contract talks which have merited some press but he has done a good job of not making it a distraction. But, if he pushes for bank (and a hard push would most likely not be unless he produces big again this coming season), you can expect the Bengals to turn him loose and go with Henry with Tab Perry then filling in a # 3.

 

[Pimpin Ain't Easy]

How many 3rd receivers put up decent seasons let alone back to back? I suspect not many. Unless he breaks into the starting lineup I would think he's at best a borderline WR3 and might be considered somewhere in the WR40-50 range. He had quite a few TD receptions last year and I would be hard pressed to seem him push double digits.

I double checked on this one to provide some insight on how often teams have 3 receivers that scored 100+ fantasy points (0 PPR). In the past 10 season, it's happened a total of 7 times (counting the 2006 Bengals).Year, Team (Player, Rank Year X, Rank Year X+1)2004 ColtsMarvin Harrison 5, 9Reggie Wayne 8, 21Brandon Stokely 11, 692004 VikingsNate Burleson 16, 93Randy Moss 19, Not ApplicableMarcus Robinson 34, 492002 RaidersJerry Rce 11, 37Jerry Porter 28, 90Tim Brown 39, 641999 RamsIsaac Bruce 6, 6Torry Holt 35, 7Az-Zahir Hakim 30, 401998 49ersTerrell Owens 3, 47Jerry Rice 8, 38JJ Stokes 26, 651997 RavensDerrick Alexander 12, 30Michael Jackson 29, 77Jermaine Lewis 35, 34As I mentioned initially, the track record is not really there for teams to have 3 guys that score 100+ points on the same squad of receivers and doing it again is quite rare. IMO, if you are looking at Henry you better hope something happens to Ocho Cinco or Housh for him to really have a lot of value in 2007.

I understand, but I don't think any of those guys have Henry's talent, or the off the field issues for that matter. He grabbed 9 td's on only 36 receptions. Missing 3 games or so. He might miss more this year who knows?? The bottom line IMO, is that he's got unreal talent, and is great value considering his upside, when your drafting him pretty late.

 

[David Yudkin]

He grabbed 9 td's on only 36 receptions.

Keep throwing out stats for non-prime (ie regular starting) players and I will come up with more reasons NOT to like Henry. He's one of 14 players to score 9 TDs on 40 or fewer receptions since 1970. Here's how the other 13 did the year after . . .Chris Sanders 1995 9, 4Calvin Williams 1990 9, 3Daryl Turner 1985 10, 13Freddie Solomon 1984 10, 1Daryl Turner 1984 13, 7Jim Smith 1980 9, 7Steve Largent 1977 10, 8Isaac Curtis 1974 10, 7Harold Jackson 1973 13, 5Ron Shanklin 1973 10, 1Paul Warfield 1973 11, 2Rich Caster 1972 10, 4Bob Hayes 1970 10, 8Only one player did better or even the same and the average fell from 10.3 TD to 5.3 TD. I'm sure they may be any number of reasons why this effect may have happened and for argument's sake I don't really care WHY it did. All I care is THAT it did.I concur that Henry is very talented, but I stand by the numbers that suggest that unless his playing time goes up a fair amount I think it will be unlikely that he will match his 2006 production.As for drafting him, sure he may be a decent guy to have lying around should something happen to Johnson or TJH in a traditional style league. He may even been a decent option in a survivor style league beacue he seems very feast or famine. But I suspect that people may think of him as a Top 30 WR with upside and may draft him many rounds before I would take him.

 

[Family Matters]

For the record, my point regarding Washington was I thought he was the guy to replace Henry. Talk was they liked Washington so much that they could afford to let Henry miss games. Now that he's gone does that ean they feel good about Henry if he keeps his nose clean?

As for Henry and his talent, I think he's a guy that if he can keep it together and stay out of trouble (not sure he can as he's the PacMan of WR's) his value might be higher than any other WR3 out there. Besides his ability to put up good numbers in absence of a pass catching TE or RB, Henry is 1 play away from being a starter.

He has the Talent. But does he have Opportunity and Motivation?

 

[David Yudkin]

His value might be higher than any other WR3 out there. Henry is 1 play away from being a starter.

Herein lies the issue. How much should you invest in a guy that you know ahead of times IS NOT a starter? See Kevin Curtis from last year. He was getting drafted BEFORE Isaac Bruce which at the time I felt was insanity. (And we know how that turned out.)So the question becomes . . . would it be worth drafting Henry ahead of MANY other WRs that will be available that will be guaranteed STARTERS for their teams. I say no, but I'm sure others will see this one differently.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Let's see if he can make it through the offseason without getting arrested before we talk about his 07 value...He still might get suspended in 2007 for charges he pled out to after his 2006 suspension, and one more arrest might be the straw that breaks the bengals back.I do really like the WR3 slot in Cincy, which is why Im watching the following closely:1) How Reggie McNeal's development goes at WR2) How Tab Perry's recovery from a severe hip injury goes

Perry is probably the best WR3 option after Henry. He's more in the mold of Washington -- a move the chains on third down kind of player -- than McNeal. At last report, Perry was running on a treadmill and looking good to participate this off-season. Keep an eye on Bennie Brazell as well. He's a better complementary fit to Johnson and Houshmandzadeh as a downfield threat. McNeal may have trouble making the team if Perry and Antonio Chatman return healthy, even with Washington out of the picture, if he (McNeal) doesn't improve on special teams given his off-field issues.

 

[TME]

His value might be higher than any other WR3 out there. Henry is 1 play away from being a starter.

Herein lies the issue. How much should you invest in a guy that you know ahead of times IS NOT a starter? See Kevin Curtis from last year. He was getting drafted BEFORE Isaac Bruce which at the time I felt was insanity. (And we know how that turned out.)So the question becomes . . . would it be worth drafting Henry ahead of MANY other WRs that will be available that will be guaranteed STARTERS for their teams. I say no, but I'm sure others will see this one differently.

Curious...so how do you see Palmer's approximately 30 TDs being distributed next year? Or, are you saying Palmer throws more in the low/low-mid 20's..say 23, 24, or 25? The TDs have to go some where. Take your Palmer projects and allocate them to the receivers. Giving Henry 8 does not seem so unreasonable...considering current information and what we know about the Bengals today.As for where he should be drafted, forecast him similar to last year 600-700 and 8 and draft accordingly.

 

[David Yudkin]

His value might be higher than any other WR3 out there. Henry is 1 play away from being a starter.

Herein lies the issue. How much should you invest in a guy that you know ahead of times IS NOT a starter? See Kevin Curtis from last year. He was getting drafted BEFORE Isaac Bruce which at the time I felt was insanity. (And we know how that turned out.)So the question becomes . . . would it be worth drafting Henry ahead of MANY other WRs that will be available that will be guaranteed STARTERS for their teams. I say no, but I'm sure others will see this one differently.

Curious...so how do you see Palmer's approximately 30 TDs being distributed next year? Or, are you saying Palmer throws more in the low/low-mid 20's..say 23, 24, or 25? The TDs have to go some where. Take your Palmer projects and allocate them to the receivers. Giving Henry 8 does not seem so unreasonable...considering current information and what we know about the Bengals today.As for where he should be drafted, forecast him similar to last year 600-700 and 8 and draft accordingly.

The Bengals had 0 TD passes to RBs and 2 to TEs in 2006. They also had no real 4th WR option (at least none that had double digit receptions). In 2005, they had 2 other receivers with 10+ catches.And who is to say that etched in stone Palmer will get 28-32 TD passes? I'm not saying that he won't, but there is always a chance that they run the ball in more than pass it. I haven't really looked at their schedule, but that could also lend itself to lower production (again, it could also be an easy schedule but I haven't really looked at it).

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Perry is probably the best WR3 option after Henry. He's more in the mold of Washington -- a move the chains on third down kind of player -- than McNeal. At last report, Perry was running on a treadmill and looking good to participate this off-season. Keep an eye on Bennie Brazell as well. He's a better complementary fit to Johnson and Houshmandzadeh as a downfield threat. McNeal may have trouble making the team if Perry and Antonio Chatman return healthy, even with Washington out of the picture, if he (McNeal) doesn't improve on special teams given his off-field issues.

Thanks for the input Dr. JB. Brazell definitely has speed to burn and provides a dimension that no other WR on the roster can provide. I am following McNeal because he's such a rare athlete, but I agree that he's likely to be the odd man out.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Any Cincy homers know if Kilmer is going to get a shot at WR or if he's just special teams?

 

[bshipper]

Any Cincy homers know if Kilmer is going to get a shot at WR or if he's just special teams?

I highly doubt he gets looks at WR. He is the special teams stud and is next in line to take over for Kaesviharn if he isn't resigned.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Any Cincy homers know if Kilmer is going to get a shot at WR or if he's just special teams?

I highly doubt he gets looks at WR. He is the special teams stud and is next in line to take over for Kaesviharn if he isn't resigned.

I agree. He's still new to football so he needs to focus on one position for now. The WR position is relatively stacked with all types of players -- possession guys, burners, red zone guys, third down guys, etc. Kilmer apparently loves to hit and has proven a nose for the ball. Safety depth is probably his long term niche outside of special teams.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Great, thanks guys! Loved watching him at PSU.

 

[EBF]

Henry is a better dynasty than redraft prospect. His character issues are a major concern, but he's talented enough to easily exceed his relatively low dynasty rank.

 

[wannabee]

For those of you banking on Henry's production given a Housh or CJ injury, how did Henry produce in the games where Housh was injured to begin the season?

 

[EBF]

For those of you banking on Henry's production given a Housh or CJ injury, how did Henry produce in the games where Housh was injured to begin the season?

One bad game. One great game. I wouldn't draw any conclusions from two games. But I do think the kid can play. Whether or not he has the motivation and the common sense needed to maximize his abilities is another question entirely. But he certainly appears to have top shelf skills.

 

[wannabee]

For those of you banking on Henry's production given a Housh or CJ injury, how did Henry produce in the games where Housh was injured to begin the season?

| WKOPP REC YD | TD |+----------+--------+-------------+----+| 1 kan | 1 -5 | 0 || 2 cle | 5 113 | 0

 

[Family Matters]

For those of you banking on Henry's production given a Housh or CJ injury, how did Henry produce in the games where Housh was injured to begin the season?

| WKOPP REC YD | TD |+----------+--------+-------------+----+| 1 kan | 1 -5 | 0 || 2 cle | 5 113 | 0

What can be counted on is that Palmer and Henry work well togther on the field. When Palmer goes on the field he puts off field issues behind him and makes plays. He has demonstrated his confidence in Henry in that he will throw the ball to him when the play is there. So again the opportunity is 1 factor but the whole motivation issue is up in the air. It is something that Henry can do something about but will he?