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Things we've learned already in 2021 that we should write down and commit to memory NOW! (1 Viewer)

NickyHatton

Footballguy
Matt LaFleur seems to definitely not be a bellcow RB type of coach. Between Henry/Lewis, Jones/Williams, & now Jones/Dillon, doesn't seem like the 1A gets an obscene amount of work for fantasy purposes

 

FairWarning

Footballguy
Matt LaFleur seems to definitely not be a bellcow RB type of coach. Between Henry/Lewis, Jones/Williams, & now Jones/Dillon, doesn't seem like the 1A gets an obscene amount of work for fantasy purposes
But it does add to their career by not wearing them out and cutting years off.

 
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Insein

Footballguy
Another thing I'm learning this year is making a decision and then sticking to it. If you have determined a player is not producing and will not produce going forward based on the data you have, don't wait another 3 weeks hemming and hawing. Pull the trigger on a trade or release and just move on.

Drafted Arob, Sanders and Tonyan. Took me 2 weeks to cut Tonyan. Took me 3 weeks to trade Arob and Sanders. At the time it was a risk because their situations could turn around but if you feel strongly about your analysis just rip the band-aid off. Don't waste time worrying. Just do it and then you can pivot afterwards.

Similarly if you see a matchup you know will be bad but it requires you sitting a good player, trust your analysis and live with the result. 

 
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tigerz

Footballguy
The probability of busting late is greater, but the real killer is busting in the early rounds.  We are more likely to keep playing them and the results don’t change.  It’s hard to get full value in a trade, nor can you cut them.  
 

agree with you Tigerz, you can win with any strategy, 
 
the question is. Probability of not busting in the first round with a running back vs not busting with a wide receiver in first round plus hitting a running back in later round. What is more likely. I go with former. Plenty of wr busting and much harder to hit rb. I think if you believe in later you are going against the grain and probabilities. Plus you can not bust in first round and hit a running back later or bust in first round and hit running back later. Just got much more options.

Zero RB is based on the theory that there is more value in WR early and more value in RBs later because you are being contrarian. If everyone goes zero RB or even one other player then this is no longer true.

It is even debatable if there is late RB value later because early RB teams still go for late round RBs so you still have a hard time finding RBs late. If early round RB teams were forced to go for WRs late then I would agree zero RB strat is viable. I just don't think things swing the way they need to in order for it to be viable. People can never have enough RBs so you'll always have guys who want 4-8 RBs on their team.

Hard to say with your comment on still playing them though. I feel like that’s subjective and hard to quantify. If I hit another rb late I would replace.

 
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tigerz

Footballguy
Another thing I'm learning this year is making a decision and then sticking to it. If you have determined a player is not producing and will not produce going forward based on the data you have, don't wait another 3 weeks hemming and hawing. Pull the trigger on a trade or release and just move on.

Drafted Arob, Sanders and Tonyan. Took me 2 weeks to cut Tonyan. Took me 3 weeks to trade Arob and Sanders. At the time it was a risk because their situations could turn around but if you feel strongly about your analysis just rip the band-aid off. Don't waste time worrying. Just do it and then you can pivot afterwards.

Similarly if you see a matchup you know will be bad but it requires you sitting a good player, trust your analysis and live with the result. 


That is so hard... I still have issues with this. When you drop those guys someone will immediately pick them up because the name value and possibility to regress. They have nothing to lose at that point but you lost a lot because you drafted them. If they go off for that other team you just feel so bad. Really hard to tell which is which sometimes. I usually drop and if they have a big game I end up wasting FAAB buying them back because of regret. You could have done the same with James Robinson and AJ Brown and you'd feel awful right now... Unless you scammed someone for like a Zeke and Kupp.

 
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fightingillini

Footballguy
Another thing I'm learning this year is making a decision and then sticking to it. If you have determined a player is not producing and will not produce going forward based on the data you have, don't wait another 3 weeks hemming and hawing. Pull the trigger on a trade or release and just move on.
I think this separates the average owner from the great owners.  We have to keep in mind that the FF season is essentially a long sprint.....good analogy would be the 400 meter dash.  You can get off to a bad start and recover later, but it's tough and you can't sit and wait for a player to produce at the level that you originally thought, while getting subpar production in the process.  Sometimes you will cut that player and he comes back to original production on someone else's team, but in my experience, it doesn't happen much.

 

FairWarning

Footballguy
 
the question is. Probability of not busting in the first round with a running back vs not busting with a wide receiver in first round plus hitting a running back in later round. What is more likely. I go with former. Plenty of wr busting and much harder to hit rb. I think if you believe in later you are going against the grain and probabilities. Plus you can not bust in first round and hit a running back later or bust in first round and hit running back later. Just got much more options.

Hard to say with your comment on still playing them though. I feel like that’s subjective and hard to quantify. If I hit another rb late I would replace.
I should rephrase, early as in early rounds.*.  I think a first round RB is more likely to bust than a WR.  This is based on buying high from the previous year, and they probably were injury-free.  What are the odds that it happens two years in a row?  I just avoid RBs after 325 touches the year before.  Henry is the exception, but I would have passed also.  He would be pick 1.1 in a redraft next year if it were held tomorrow, and I would still pass.  
 

the player I have that has killed me is Hopkins.  People always say to start your studs - but when isn’t he a stud anymore?  He was a top-5 receiver in most drafts, yet has hit his projection once in my league.
 

 

tigerz

Footballguy
I should rephrase, early as in early rounds.*.  I think a first round RB is more likely to bust than a WR.  This is based on buying high from the previous year, and they probably were injury-free.  What are the odds that it happens two years in a row?  I just avoid RBs after 325 touches the year before.  Henry is the exception, but I would have passed also.  He would be pick 1.1 in a redraft next year if it were held tomorrow, and I would still pass.  
 

the player I have that has killed me is Hopkins.  People always say to start your studs - but when isn’t he a stud anymore?  He was a top-5 receiver in most drafts, yet has hit his projection once in my league.
 


Hopkins is the perfect example of the problem I have with elite WRs today. Back when there was Randy Moss, TO, Ocho Cinco, there were guys who hit 100 yards and 2 TDs every game. The game back then was not spreading defenses it was beating other teams with talent so they would force feed certain WRs. Arizona is a perfect example of how the league has changed. Even with an elite talent they use them as distractions so you get bust games. Davante Adams may be the exception but there's just so few of the force fed high volume WRs so its easier to separate elite RBs who get 20 touches and receptions than elite force-fed WR from high upside WR1s. I mean does Cooper Kupp really look like Randy Moss 2007 even though he scores FPs like him lol. Can never tell anymore.

 
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FairWarning

Footballguy
Hopkins is the perfect example of the problem I have with elite WRs today. Back when there was Randy Moss, TO, Ocho Cinco, there were guys who hit 100 yards and 2 TDs every game. The game back then was not spreading defenses it was beating other teams with talent so they would force feed certain WRs. Arizona is a perfect example of how the league has changed. Even with an elite talent they use them as distractions so you get bust games. Davante Adams may be the exception but there's just so few of the force fed high volume WRs so its easier to separate elite RBs who get 20 touches and receptions than elite force-fed WR from high upside WR1s. I mean does Cooper Kupp really look like Randy Moss 2007 even though he scores FPs like him lol. Can never tell anymore.
You make a great point about the WR’s, and it stems from the qb and type of offense.  Adams is force fed because they run a traditional pro set.  Too many teams are going to spread offenses to help the qb who has played it in college.  I’m not a Murray fan, really think he’s overrated.   Next year, I will not draft a #1 WR from a spread offense.  

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Hopkins is the perfect example of the problem I have with elite WRs today. Back when there was Randy Moss, TO, Ocho Cinco, there were guys who hit 100 yards and 2 TDs every game. The game back then was not spreading defenses it was beating other teams with talent so they would force feed certain WRs. Arizona is a perfect example of how the league has changed. Even with an elite talent they use them as distractions so you get bust games. Davante Adams may be the exception but there's just so few of the force fed high volume WRs so its easier to separate elite RBs who get 20 touches and receptions than elite force-fed WR from high upside WR1s. I mean does Cooper Kupp really look like Randy Moss 2007 even though he scores FPs like him lol. Can never tell anymore.
There were WRs who scored 32 TDs per year?

 

Chaka

Footballguy
I'm just saying guys; try playing in a league where the 12th RB doesn't come off the board until pick 3.4 (12 team).

It's liberating.

We have had multiple champions who won based on rolling out three great WRs every week or two great QBs. Usually it's a mix.

It's good stuff.

 

Mongidig

Footballguy
When it comes to drafting and evaluating talent I am a genius, a specimen if you will. Unfortunately, when it comes to making weekly start/sit decisions I am probably the worst ever. 
 

Here is the lesson. After hiring a fantasy football psychologist and doing some hypnotherapy I realized my problem. I don’t trust my genius. Every week I make the mistake of going with the fantasy hive mind. I make changes to my line up based on rankings. I make changes to my lineup based on forum suggestions. If I just stick to my gut I will dominate.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I'm just saying guys; try playing in a league where the 12th RB doesn't come off the board until pick 3.4 (12 team).

It's liberating.
if I’m in that league I’m stacking quality RB while y’all ignoring the position though, ensuring that the RB you get at 3.4 sucks. 

Then when all y’all scrambling to get RBs, I’m stacking value WRs.

any league I’m in where the majority zigs, imma zag. 

 
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themeistersinger

Footballguy
I'm just saying guys; try playing in a league where the 12th RB doesn't come off the board until pick 3.4 (12 team).

It's liberating.

We have had multiple champions who won based on rolling out three great WRs every week or two great QBs. Usually it's a mix.

It's good stuff.
What is that format?

 

Chaka

Footballguy
if I’m in that league I’m stacking quality QB while y’all ignoring the position though, ensuring that the RB you get at 3.4 sucks. 

Then when all y’all scrambling to get RBs, I’m stacking value WRs.

any league I’m in where the majority zigs, imma zag. 
Of course I agree 100%. But the theory breaks down if you don't also have positional scarcity. No point in going for a QB when Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr may be on the waiver wire in week seven.

 

Mongidig

Footballguy
Every year I fall for the pre season hype guy’s. This year I snagged guy’s like Bryan Edwards, Terrace Marshal and Elijah Moore. Then I keep them on my roster waiting for there breakout when I could be upgrading to more useful assets. 

 

Mongidig

Footballguy
Ive actually stopped starting players in TNF games. They always seem to turn into duds and ruin my weekend. Im obviously not talking about studs. Im talking more flex types and defenses.
Unfortunately it can work both ways. I don’t know how many times a Thursday night guy went off on my bench. I end up feeling sick the rest of the week. 
 

If all else is equal I agree to sit the Thursday player.
 

It’s nice when I have nobody going Thursday and I can just root against players.

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
I think the skill aspect comes into play a little when you decide say to pull the trigger on a Mike Williams or a Cooper Kupp or Brady over the 5-6 or more guys ranked ahead of them on your cheat sheet and probably the cheat sheet of others in the room....if you had a gut feeling or did some research and put 2 and 2 together on your own...whatever.....it's not "lucky" that you got Williams....you made the call....when you by definition "reach" and get great value....there is some skill in that.....there is some skill in creating your own "do not draft list"....we all do it....some better than others....there is also some skill in creating your "I will reach for this guy a little list"....and when things like that start showing results consistently, you are on to something that resembles skill....the "luck" might be taking Kupp or Williams or Brady "right where you are supposed to in a draft" and then they end up outperforming their ADP....

 
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Mongidig

Footballguy
The reason I dont like going RB/RB anymore is RBs ALWAYS get hurt and are ALWAYS available on the WW. How many stud WR become available on Waivers during a season? Last year was Jefferson. This year out of the top 36 week 8 WRs I only see Patterson who I would consider an every week starter as being undrafted. Meanwhile, your top 24 RBs have Hubbard, Patterson, DWilliams, Mitchell, Herbert, Booker, and Gainwell all picked up off waivers this season.
This has been a great year if you waited on RB. The bust potential for RB’s is much higher than WR’s. In theory and do to scarcity I’d love to go RB/RB but I agree with you. It’s a tough way to go in a three receiver league. It’s also nice to have that stud WR on your squad. 

 

Mongidig

Footballguy
I think the skill aspect comes into play a little when you decide say to pull the trigger on a Mike Williams or a Cooper Kupp or Brady over the 5-6 or more guys ranked ahead of them on your cheat sheet and probably the cheat sheet of others in the room....if you had a gut feeling or did some research and put 2 and 2 together on your own...whatever.....it's not "lucky" that you got Williams....you made the call....when you by definition "reach" and get great value....there is some skill in that.....there is some skill in creating your own "do not draft list"....we all do it....some better than others....there is also some skill in creating your "I will reach for this guy a little list"....and when things like that start showing results consistently, you are on to something that resembles skill...."luck" might be taking Kupp or Williams or Brady "right where you are supposed to in a draft" and then they end up outperforming their ADP....
Knowing your league well and using this in your draft roster construction is skill.

I agree that going against the grain and trusting your process is skill.

Using your imagination to see how certain situations might play out is skill.

I think more important than skill is avoiding mistakes. 

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Do you still start 2 RB, 2 WR, , 1 TE, one Superflex?
Our format, some of which I am trying to change is:

12 team, 16 roster spots (no IR, no taxi squad), 9 starters, WR/TE are a combined position (I would like to change this).

Minimum start 1 QB, 2RB, 2 WR/TE, 1 K, 1 D, 1 flex any position, 1 flex anything but QB

I would like to change the minimum starters to 1 RB & 1 WR/TE

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Don’t start a player simply because he in a game you get to watch.
I try to watch the best game that has the fewest number of my players involved.

I hate being stressed while watching football. I have a favorite NFL team that I root for to do that for me.

 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
trends say that the team losing a SB will suck the following year. Chiefs would be NO exception to this trend. Their QB and RB play has been deplorable thus far. point being don't expect much from players on SB losing teams.

always remember to draft B. Cooks.

keep 1 wr and 1 RB that are throw-away players, so that when a RB/WR is thrust into the spotlight you can drop a meaningless player for him. there's always a handful of guys who come out of nowhere to post gaudy stats , like Patterson and so on. so basically you fill out your roster in other spots and take RB 4, Wr 4 at the end of the draft. this way you have some wiggle room to pick up the week 1-3 player that's trending up as a hot-add, potential league winner.

Follow the coaches - when a team hires a new HC check what his background is. you know that Dallas would be flingin' it left and right the moment they hired McCarthy. 

Tannethrill , Matty Ice have significant value as mid round adds , allowing you to fill out your roster with early picks. They're perfect in that regard. Maybe we add Wentz to that list.

Always draft the #1 WR in a Kyle Shanahan offense, but nothing else. 

always avoid NE players post Brady. There's simply no value there. nothing you can count on.

RBs get hurt draft a lot of them early.

Always keep an eye on the RB2 in GB - they're almost always a factor.

dont ever draft a WFT team player.ever.

when a player like Michael Carter gets drafted by a team that has only Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman, there's a high probability that Carter passes them by week 5-6. and that's exactly what's happened. same with J. Williams. 

D. Montgomery is/was a flash in the pan who probably has forever lost the starting gig in Chicago. Khalil Herbert is a future star. people relied on Monty's close to the 2020 season where he treaded on high school defenses. I know he got hurt this year but wasn't all that good before he went down. people drafted him for what they saw in games 10-16 last season never realizing it was a mirage. avoid the late season stat compiler against teams that've thrown in the towel.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Of course I agree 100%. But the theory breaks down if you don't also have positional scarcity. No point in going for a QB when Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr may be on the waiver wire in week seven.
Oops - that was a typo. Should have been stacking quality RB, not QB. 

I never take QB early. lol 

 

FairWarning

Footballguy
I'm just saying guys; try playing in a league where the 12th RB doesn't come off the board until pick 3.4 (12 team).

It's liberating.

We have had multiple champions who won based on rolling out three great WRs every week or two great QBs. Usually it's a mix.

It's good stuff.
I won the title two years ago drafting 12th - drafted WR/WR.  10 of the first 11 picked RBs. I don’t need to really draft for value, I just want to know how they will draft.

 

wlwiles

Footballguy
So I should be sure and take a stud RB in the first.  But only if it's Henry...or maybe Zeke. 

Stud RB again with 2nd pick, but only if it's Taylor or Najee.  

No, I should go stud WR early.  But not Hopkins, or AJB, or Diggs, or Hill, or Ridley.  

Go for solid WR2 then.  But not Woods. Or ARob. or Keenan Allen. 

I got it!  Go stud TE way early!  But only Kelce, definitely not Waller or Kittle. 

Oh, so just make sure and nail the middle picks, like Kupp, or Chase, or JRob.  Surely I can land those guys where I want them and nobody else is shooting for them.  

It's. All. Luck. 

 

tigerz

Footballguy
This debate reminds me of how good looking men have such an easier time hitting on women who just throw themselves at them. Those "naturals" always think they are so skilled and can't understand the guy who has to work so hard to get even one date because women naturally try to avoid being picked up.

Some people who are born lucky can't acknowledge that they were blessed with luck. I truly believe that some individuals were born luckier than others and others are living under a cursed star. 

Whose to say that the guy who consistently loses every year but does analysis and strategizes and works harder than everyone else is less skilled as a FF player because they lose all the time. A bad run can last years...

Whose to say that a guy who wins often in the past 5 years wasn't just lucky? I think many people should just count themselves as very lucky every year they win because that's probably the truth. You can't win without luck. And if you win multiple years, you are beating the odds which can happen if you are lucky...

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
This debate reminds me of how good looking men have such an easier time hitting on women who just throw themselves at them. Those "naturals" always think they are so skilled and can't understand the guy who has to work so hard to get even one date because women naturally try to avoid being picked up.

Some people who are born lucky can't acknowledge that they were blessed with luck. I truly believe that some individuals were born luckier than others and others are living under a cursed star. 

Whose to say that the guy who consistently loses every year but does analysis and strategizes and works harder than everyone else is less skilled as a FF player because they lose all the time. A bad run can last years...

Whose to say that a guy who wins often in the past 5 years wasn't just lucky? I think many people should just count themselves as very lucky every year they win because that's probably the truth. You can't win without luck. And if you win multiple years, you are beating the odds which can happen if you are lucky...
Luck definitely has a major role in FF.  No one is going to argue that. But the good owners do, in a way, make their own luck.  My 10 team league that has been together for 23 years.....me and two others in the league own 13 of the 23 titles.   Luck generally isn't the reason for that.

Sure, some guys work hard and can't win in FF.  But I equate it to working in the real world.  I had someone who worked for me in the past....worked hard and a lot of hours, but didn't get much done, and I eventually had to get rid of that person.   You can work hard in FF, but if you're focusing on the wrong things, you won't get the right results.  If I worked hard at something and not getting the right results, you have to question the methods and change them.

 

tigerz

Footballguy
Luck definitely has a major role in FF.  No one is going to argue that. But the good owners do, in a way, make their own luck.  My 10 team league that has been together for 23 years.....me and two others in the league own 13 of the 23 titles.   Luck generally isn't the reason for that.

Sure, some guys work hard and can't win in FF.  But I equate it to working in the real world.  I had someone who worked for me in the past....worked hard and a lot of hours, but didn't get much done, and I eventually had to get rid of that person.   You can work hard in FF, but if you're focusing on the wrong things, you won't get the right results.  If I worked hard at something and not getting the right results, you have to question the methods and change them.


Honestly, I've played for over 10 years and I've only won two championships. I don't do anything differently from any of you and the seasons I won were my first two. I've tried every strategy, picked up every sleeper, used all the things you guys learned here and put countless hours in it.

When people ask me who to start I have very detailed answers that have more thought to it than always start your studs. If you judge my skill based on my outcomes you say I'm a terrible fantasy manager because I don't get the right results.

I think that's a disservice to all of us on this forum who do more work than most and just don't have luck. I don't want to discount everyones skill, don't get me wrong.

I'm saying that everyone here has skill because they are putting forth the research / analysis / and effort. There is no difference between you and me other than luck. But I guess I will never win this so I'll stop lol.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Honestly, I've played for over 10 years and I've only won two championships. I don't do anything differently from any of you and the seasons I won were my first two. I've tried every strategy, picked up every sleeper, used all the things you guys learned here and put countless hours in it.

When people ask me who to start I have very detailed answers that have more thought to it than always start your studs. If you judge my skill based on my outcomes you say I'm a terrible fantasy manager because I don't get the right results.

I think that's a disservice to all of us on this forum who do more work than most and just don't have luck. I don't want to discount everyones skill, don't get me wrong.

I'm saying that everyone here has skill because they are putting forth the research / analysis / and effort. There is no difference between you and me other than luck. But I guess I will never win this so I'll stop lol.
Agree with your last statement......everyone here has more skill than the typical player.

Between you and me.......yes, luck is going to be more of a factor, because we are good informed owners. You put 10-12 highly skilled owners in a league, and yes luck will be a bigger factor.  But most leagues have a mix of good players, average players, and guppies.  I am just pointing out that in my experience, it's the same 3-4 guys that usually make the playoffs.  That's because those owners generally outwork and focus on the right things that matter in the long run.  They draft well, work the wire, and make well timed trades.

I have had streaks of bad luck.  I won my main league 4 times, and they occurred in the 1st 11 years.  I haven't won the title since 2009, even though I have had 4 losses in title games since then. 

BTW, you won 2 titles in 10 years.  That's a good rate, it is well above average.  I have won 4 titles in 23 years in one league.  It's why I love redraft leagues.....they are very hard, if not impossible, to dominate year in and year out.

 

wlwiles

Footballguy
Honestly, I've played for over 10 years and I've only won two championships. I don't do anything differently from any of you and the seasons I won were my first two. I've tried every strategy, picked up every sleeper, used all the things you guys learned here and put countless hours in it.

When people ask me who to start I have very detailed answers that have more thought to it than always start your studs. If you judge my skill based on my outcomes you say I'm a terrible fantasy manager because I don't get the right results.

I think that's a disservice to all of us on this forum who do more work than most and just don't have luck. I don't want to discount everyones skill, don't get me wrong.

I'm saying that everyone here has skill because they are putting forth the research / analysis / and effort. There is no difference between you and me other than luck. But I guess I will never win this so I'll stop lol.
Thanks @tigerz, truly.  Reminds me a ton of my brother - the first year either of us played fantasy was 2006, we created a league together.  He's made the playoffs in 13 of the 16 years, finishing second FOUR times (including getting Kamara'd in the finals last year by me), but he's never won a title. This year he's first place at 7-0.  I'm almost rooting for him to win more than I am myself.  He's my #1 go-to for start/sit questions (except the week I play him of course), trade analysis/advice, etc and he deserves that elusive crown so bad.  Your post reminded me that despite the results-oriented way of thinking of the world in 2021, the process is what matters...that and having luck on your side :)  

 

tigerz

Footballguy
Agree with your last statement......everyone here has more skill than the typical player.

Between you and me.......yes, luck is going to be more of a factor, because we are good informed owners. You put 10-12 highly skilled owners in a league, and yes luck will be a bigger factor.  But most leagues have a mix of good players, average players, and guppies.  I am just pointing out that in my experience, it's the same 3-4 guys that usually make the playoffs.  That's because those owners generally outwork and focus on the right things that matter in the long run.  They draft well, work the wire, and make well timed trades.

I have had streaks of bad luck.  I won my main league 4 times, and they occurred in the 1st 11 years.  I haven't won the title since 2009, even though I have had 4 losses in title games since then. 

BTW, you won 2 titles in 10 years.  That's a good rate, it is well above average.  I have won 4 titles in 23 years in one league.  It's why I love redraft leagues.....they are very hard, if not impossible, to dominate year in and year out.


LOL, thanks. Agreed, if you got a league with 4 players who are terrible then that really helps you get to the playoffs more. There are always some teams that you know don't belong in playoffs and can luck into there. You can easily spot those guys and separate yourselves from them. 

Looked at my standings in my league and I just got brutal luck. It's just so important to winning. I really can't say luck isn't more important than skill even though I make it to the playoffs based on experience.

2020 - 5-8 didn't make playoffs - top 4 scored against
2019 - first round knock out
2018 - first round knock out
2017 - 3rd place
2016 3-10 top 3 scored against
2015 - first round knock out
2014 - 6-7 (top 4 scored against)
2013 - first place

 

tigerz

Footballguy
BTW All Play >>>>>>>>>>>>>> H2H

Luck will always be a factor but we can still work to minimize it's impact.
Yeah, I really tried to mitigate it through pay structure. I pay less for playoff standings and pay out for weekly highest points scored and high points scoring leader. That way even if you don't win it all you don't end up in the red. All play is another one of those, impossible to get leagues to adopt along with 2 QBs and auction drafts lol. I'm just happy I abolished kickers in year 1 otherwise I would never have done it. FAAB waivers was also a struggle to implement but people finally okay with it now.

 
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Chaka

Footballguy
Yeah, I really tried to mitigate it through pay structure. I pay less for playoff standings and more for weekly highest points scored and high points scoring leader. That way even if you don't win it all you don't end up in the red. All play is another one of those, impossible to get leagues to adopt along with 2 QBs and auction drafts lol. I'm just happy I abolished kickers in year 1 otherwise I would never have done it. FAAB waivers was also a struggle to implement but people finally okay with it now.
Yeah, change in longstanding leagues is difficult to come by. 

We do a weekly payout for high score but I would love to adopt a season long high score payout too. If you've played long enough you have been or known someone who had the most dominant team by far but, in h2h leagues, end up facing the highest scoring team every week.

10th season of my league, 2005, I drafted Edgerrin, Steven Jackson & Lamont Jordan 1, 2, 3 it was a monster team. 7 times I ended up facing the top scoring team that week, finished as the top scoring team by something like 200 points, went 7-7 and missed the playoffs.

I was livid and I fought a months long campaign almost daily that off-season to switch to all play. I cajoled, badgered, nagged etc until I got the votes to change. 

Totally worth it. I don't take magic football so seriously anymore but we still have a couple owners who don't like it and want to switch back, but that always gets me fired up and I rail hard  to keep those voices quiet every time they pop up.

 

tigerz

Footballguy
Yeah, change in longstanding leagues is difficult to come by. 

We do a weekly payout for high score but I would love to adopt a season long high score payout too. If you've played long enough you have been or known someone who had the most dominant team by far but, in h2h leagues, end up facing the highest scoring team every week.

10th season of my league, 2005, I drafted Edgerrin, Steven Jackson & Lamont Jordan 1, 2, 3 it was a monster team. 7 times I ended up facing the top scoring team that week, finished as the top scoring team by something like 200 points, went 7-7 and missed the playoffs.

I was livid and I fought a months long campaign almost daily that off-season to switch to all play. I cajoled, badgered, nagged etc until I got the votes to change. 

Totally worth it. I don't take magic football so seriously anymore but we still have a couple owners who don't like it and want to switch back, but that always gets me fired up and I rail hard  to keep those voices quiet every time they pop up.
Yeah I hear you. I really like it for guillotine leagues. I think for normal leagues I’d do double headers to mitigate it but I’d have to pay up for mfl for that so it’s a non starter unless it’s out of my own pocket.

some leagues pay out for record or division winner but I feel like that is garbage. Being able to make playoffs is enough for high records holders. Not a given that it goes to highest point scores teams. 

Even more so when you have 1 division that sucks and has a 6-7 leader and the other division has 4 8-5 teams that can’t all make playoffs cause in same division.

 

barackdhouse

Footballguy
Good process gives you opportunities to get lucky. More opportunities than average process. More opportunities than poor process. As has been mentioned, it takes time for variance to play out, and it is very easy to get caught in a cycle of seemingly perpetual bad luck. 

The poker analogies are often great but consider that in one long session of poker, say over the course of like 8 hours one long night, you might see variance play itself out over and over again. You can have runs of just really bad luck for long stretches. But with patience, it *does* turn around. And back again. You can actually experience those highs and lows all in the same session. But in fantasy football, you only get paid at the end of the season (ok thinking season long H2H leagues here), and it may take several season to see the same kind of swings of variance play out. If you only play in one or two leagues, then yeah you can be consistently competitive but to win is another matter.

I agree 100% with everyone that has said you have to get lucky to win. We've all had teams that were just stacked get bounced in week 14. That wasn't a lack of skill. But you have to create those opportunities. And you have to get hot to take down the ship (or a bracelet). 

That is why, for me, I play in so many different leagues. I am a portfolio owner and I absolutely do not recommend that for most people. But I have teams right now that could be characterized as "unlucky" or "snakebit", others that are just losing (not necessarily because of bad luck but because of my own mistakes - yes that is a category) and I have teams that are marginally underperforming, marginally overperforming, dominating, and some that could certainly be characterized as "lucky" or "blessed" right now. I have a couple teams labeled in my spreadsheet as "possible house of cards?" and a couple others that I am referring to as "zombies" because they may be coming back from the dead. 

But on the whole I am outperforming the masses in these leagues and on pace to (predictably) do what I set out to do, which is to win more than I lose and to do it profitably. Again. It isn't because I am luckier than others. It is because I use good process more often than I don't (which is all the time if you follow some of my moves and takes on this board) and create opportunities to get lucky. I do this at the poker table, too. Make more good decisions than bad decisions. 

Last thought on this - and you see it in poker all the dang time. People blame bad luck for their losses. But if you are making good decisions more often than your opponents, they will lay bad beats on you more often than you do it to them over the long haul. Which in turn supports the illusion that you are unluckier than they. The truth is that your higher quality play is calibrated to yield more bad beats coming your way than outgoing. But if you don't understand that dynamic and recognize it, you can become emotional and tilted, and blame bad luck. Pro poker players take bad beats as signs that they are playing well.

In FF, this manifests itself out soooo much more slowly than poker. I have one SF dynasty team that I did the startup for this year. I absolutely am convinced my process was solid and that I drafted one of the best teams I ever have. But it got snakebit. 100% bad luck is the explanation. A lost season. Not a pretender. Not me making mistakes. It just got snakebit. It happens. But if this were my *only team*, I'd be pissed.

Ok rant over but skill matters. Luck matters. FF plays out over too slow of a cycle to win (championships) consistently with just one or two teams. Daily is an entirely different beast.

 

themeistersinger

Footballguy
12 playoff appearances in 12 years, 6 titles in 12 years.  A lot of that success can definitely be attributed to skill, but also a lot to luck.  If you read the whole thing you’ll see some crazy luck.

For 2021, I am currently the second highest scoring team in my league, but also 3-4.  I drafted 4 RB’s this year – Christian McCaffery, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kareem Hunt, and Damien Harris.  I have 3 IR spots and the first 3 guys on that list are occupying those 3 spots.  Last week, during the worst Bye week of the year, of my 5 bench spots, two were occupied by injured players – Jerry Jeudy on IR and Kadarius Toney, out with an ankle.  I just need to claw my way into the playoffs, hope my healthy guys stay that way and my injured guys come roaring back, and then kick ###.  Or get bounced again in the first round due to bad luck.

2009 – Title

My first year playing fantasy.  Office league, I watched the Bills play but not much of the NFL.  I wasn’t much interested in joining, but as the senior guy on the team I felt I had to participate.  Got the #1 pick in a lottery, took Adrian Peterson as the consensus #1.  Second round, the top guy on my board (based on a couple of magazines) was Chris Johnson, RB Tennessee.  I had never heard of him, but that was true for a lot of players in the NFL, so I picked him.  He was known as CJ2K by the end of that year.  (Note that every team in my league had two chances to draft him before my spot).  I streamed QB, starting with Matt Hasselbeck and Kurt Warner.  I ALWAYS started the wrong one, including the week that Matt Hasselbeck benched himself on his own fantasy team but finished as the QB1 that week.  I drafted 6 WR and cut them all by the end of the season (including Steve Smith, was simply average that year), and the ones I finished with were nothing special either.  I also drafted a kicker early, because a kicker is a starter, so I should pick starters before bench, right?  I was carrying Larry Johnson, who stunk most of the year, and when KC was on Bye they cut him.  I picked up his backup Jamaal Charles, rookie, who I knew nothing about, but I had been hanging onto Johnson because of a glorious second half schedule, which Charles would inherit.  I won my first title.  Charles, Peterson and Johnson were the top 3 RB’s the week of the title game. 

2010 – Playoffs, bounced in first round

Again got the #1 pick by lottery, chose Chris Johnson over Adrian Peterson (not the right choice).  Probably my best team ever, at least second half.  Week 1, my second round pick, Ryan Grant, tore his ACL on the first play of the game.  I had the second lowest score the previous week, so was unable to snag his obvious backup, and got stuck with Peyton Hillis, who proceeded to rampage through the league.  I swung a trade where I sent Antonio Gates for Rashard Mendenhall, Greg Jennings and Tony Moeaki (it was the other guy’s idea).  Gates got hurt the next week, and Mendenhall and Jennings had a much stronger second half.  I was beating the second highest scoring team by about 10 to 20 points every week.  Lost in the first round of the playoffs to a team that went absolutely bananas.  Next year, I had 8 of my players from this team taken in the first or second round (we only start 7).

2011 - Title

Again got the #1 pick by lottery.  Traded down to #3 and took Arian Foster, who missed week 1, but got better.  I also drafted Calvin Johnson (finished the WR1) and Wes Welker (finished the WR2).  Got my second title.

2012 – Title

Got the last pick by lottery.  Drew Brees at 1.12 and Darren McFadden at 2.01, who did nothing all year due to injuries.  (You generally don’t want to be my second round pick).  Largely rode Drew Brees that year along with C.J. Spiller.  Got my third title.

2013 – Playoffs, bounced in the first round

This was the year I traded away Danny Woodhead and Jay Cutler for Aaron Rodgers.  (It was full PPR, I think Woodhead finished at RB8 or something).  The other guy had 3 QBs on his roster and only 2 RBs at the time of the trade.  After this, nobody in my league will ever trade with me again, even though it was a GREAT trade for the other guy.  Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and did not play the rest of the season, although they never put him on IR.  Got bounced in the first round of the playoffs, in the second and third round I had the top score in both games, so if I had managed to make it past round one I would have won the title.

2014 – Runner Up

Second place finish, lost in the title game.  Going into Week 8, I was in a Bye week and injury jam.  I had to drop one of my WR’s that were both on Bye.  Either Michael Crabtree or Odell Beckham.  I hoped Beckham would sneak through, but somebody grabbed him.  The following week, the guy that picked up Beckham needed a RB, so he traded Beckham away for Bryce Brown.  The guy that received Beckham in the trade beat me in the title game.  This is the only time I made it to the title game but didn’t win.

2015 – Title

My fourth title.  One of the guys started 0-6, and our waivers are reverse order of record, so for several weeks, he was #1 on waivers.  Every week, there is one and only one player that you HAVE TO pick up, and he does, and goes on a rampage, but still has a bad record so still keeps top priority and keeps picking up the top guy.  He finally lost a game due to Bye weeks, so basically was eliminated and lost interest.  That week the guy to pick up was David Johnson – thank you very much.  Nobody else even put in a waiver claim on him.  I had thought most of my league mates were morons, but this proved it to me.

2016 – Playoffs, bounced in the first round

Had the highest scoring team in the league this year (by over 100 points vs second place), but unfortunately the second highest scoring team was whoever I played that week (i.e. my Points Against were higher than anybody else’s Points For).  Got bounced in the first round.  Had high score both weeks of the second and third rounds. 

2017 – Title

One of the other managers in my league had probably the strongest team ever.  #1 RB, #1 WR and #1 QB for most of the year.  He got high score 8 times, and is the only team to ever win 11 times in the regular season in our league.  In the second round, he lost by 0.1 points.  (Earlier that year, he had defeated the same team by 0.1 points).  If he had played me in the second round, he would have demolished me.  But he didn’t, and I won another title.  This is the only year where I never once had the weekly high score.

2018 – Title

Generally a nice solid year, got the #1 seed despite losing week 1 by 40 points.  Waited on QB, drafted Patrick Mahomes in the tenth round.  Won a title again. 

2019 – Playoffs, bounced in the first round

Waited on QB again, got Lamar Jackson in the ninth round.  Did very well during regular season, but in first round of the playoffs, Mike Evans caught a long bomb for a TD, popped his hamstring and was out for the rest of the season. 

2020 – Playoffs, bounced in first round

Got in on a tie breaker at 6-7, even though I was the second highest scoring team in the league. 

2021 – TBD, Currently 3-4

 

tigerz

Footballguy
Good process gives you opportunities to get lucky. More opportunities than average process. More opportunities than poor process. As has been mentioned, it takes time for variance to play out, and it is very easy to get caught in a cycle of seemingly perpetual bad luck. 

The poker analogies are often great but consider that in one long session of poker, say over the course of like 8 hours one long night, you might see variance play itself out over and over again. You can have runs of just really bad luck for long stretches. But with patience, it *does* turn around. And back again. You can actually experience those highs and lows all in the same session. But in fantasy football, you only get paid at the end of the season (ok thinking season long H2H leagues here), and it may take several season to see the same kind of swings of variance play out. If you only play in one or two leagues, then yeah you can be consistently competitive but to win is another matter.

I agree 100% with everyone that has said you have to get lucky to win. We've all had teams that were just stacked get bounced in week 14. That wasn't a lack of skill. But you have to create those opportunities. And you have to get hot to take down the ship (or a bracelet). 

That is why, for me, I play in so many different leagues. I am a portfolio owner and I absolutely do not recommend that for most people. But I have teams right now that could be characterized as "unlucky" or "snakebit", others that are just losing (not necessarily because of bad luck but because of my own mistakes - yes that is a category) and I have teams that are marginally underperforming, marginally overperforming, dominating, and some that could certainly be characterized as "lucky" or "blessed" right now. I have a couple teams labeled in my spreadsheet as "possible house of cards?" and a couple others that I am referring to as "zombies" because they may be coming back from the dead. 

But on the whole I am outperforming the masses in these leagues and on pace to (predictably) do what I set out to do, which is to win more than I lose and to do it profitably. Again. It isn't because I am luckier than others. It is because I use good process more often than I don't (which is all the time if you follow some of my moves and takes on this board) and create opportunities to get lucky. I do this at the poker table, too. Make more good decisions than bad decisions. 

Last thought on this - and you see it in poker all the dang time. People blame bad luck for their losses. But if you are making good decisions more often than your opponents, they will lay bad beats on you more often than you do it to them over the long haul. Which in turn supports the illusion that you are unluckier than they. The truth is that your higher quality play is calibrated to yield more bad beats coming your way than outgoing. But if you don't understand that dynamic and recognize it, you can become emotional and tilted, and blame bad luck. Pro poker players take bad beats as signs that they are playing well.

In FF, this manifests itself out soooo much more slowly than poker. I have one SF dynasty team that I did the startup for this year. I absolutely am convinced my process was solid and that I drafted one of the best teams I ever have. But it got snakebit. 100% bad luck is the explanation. A lost season. Not a pretender. Not me making mistakes. It just got snakebit. It happens. But if this were my *only team*, I'd be pissed.

Ok rant over but skill matters. Luck matters. FF plays out over too slow of a cycle to win (championships) consistently with just one or two teams. Daily is an entirely different beast.


Don't you think poker is vastly more difficult and a more structured game than fantasy football where there are correct ways to play each hand and judge based on process whether or not you got lucky vs whether you had sound play but lost? I don't think you can do that with FF.

If I have aces and go against 7-2 offsuit and we both go all in pre-flop i shouldn't feel bad about losing. However, harder to say what the correct moves always are in FF because there are no odds to calculate and no way to evaluate the probabilities of success for every move. Especially since there are way more variables in football than poker and more unknowns.

Also, if you play 10 years of poker you can still improve your gameplay because the skill required is so vast and thus increasing your edge over your competition that is even 3 years of experience.

If you play 10 years of FF I doubt you are that much better than someone who played 3. Just my 2 cents.

 

 

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