Very different dynamic this year. Edelman was healthy (and was also super productive in that game with an 8/118/1), but otherwise, the horses weren't there for NE that would keep Hogan down in the pecking order, and the gaps in the Pittsburgh defense that are going to make the alpha options look so appealing this week weren't there.
The presence of Gronk this time, coupled with the absence of Shazier, is massive. Hard to imagine a scenario where this isn't exploited over and over. Shazier was Pittsburgh's best cover man and Gronk has a history of making Tomlin's life miserable. Mitchell is no cover man, and the replacement linebackers are huge steps down from one of the NFL's elite cover LB's.
That hole in the coverage ability up front is also highly exploitable by the raft of capable pass catching RB's. James White was really the only thing Pittsburgh needed to cope with last year. (And again, a healthy Shazier made that a non-issue.) But with Burkhead raging, White healthy, and Dion fully capable in that role, this might be so exploitable that Hogan gets pushed further down the priority list.
Add Cooks to the mix, of course. The secondary is in tatters (maybe Haden comes back and helps somewhat; we'll see), but neither of these guys is an Edelman clone. Any given week, it can be tough to suss out who's more likely to exploit a weakness in coverage. In part because it's often impossible to tell how the D is going to try to scheme to cover any weaknesses.
It's not so much that Hogan couldn't possibly gash this team. For me, it's more that Belichick isn't typically one to go for the path of most resistance. With the underneath stuff looking so incredibly available, shots over the top are going to come only opportunistically, IMO, and this year Hogan's got to share them with a more talented wideout. Hogan's strong in the red zone, and that's been his FF bread and butter this year, but this week, there are much more exploitable holes down there for Bill & Tom to pillage.
I like Hogan, but I simply don't love his place on this weekend's totem pole. I wouldn't write him off, but I wouldn't start him over most seemingly "equal" players. I just think his variance is a lot trickier.
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