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Chris Hogan, WR (1 Viewer)

Bojang0301 said:
This is one of the oddities of fantasy football. I understand a bump in targets but I don't think the offense changes. Nobody was really all that crazy about Hogan before... maybe they should have been, not really here to debate that. If Edelman and Hogan were not white though it would be easy to look at the two and see one is 5'10 190 slot receiver and the other is a 6'2 220 possession receiver. Call it white guy in a skill position bias but it's bizarre to me. I doubt very much that Hogan does something more extrodinary then he was already destined for before Edelman's injury.
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He's gonna play in the slot more than before .  That alone will give him bigger stats.

 
Ghost Rider said:
Exactly.  The Patriots offense won't skip a beat without him. 
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Yes and no...overall they will be fine...too much firepower not to be...but as far as real football is concerned when they are in a playoff game and it is 17-17 in the fourth quarter and it is 3rd and 5 (or on a punt return) his loss will be sorely felt...also, do not underestimate the attitude/edge he brings to this team...the guy is an absolute maniac with zero regard for his body...he is one of the key components of this team and anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't know this team...they are just fortunate enough to have BB and Brady which allows them to overcome stuff like his loss...

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
I would take Parker over Hogan pretty easily as well.  But Parker isn't typically there in the 7th.  And Hogan even with the hype is still typically around even a little longer than that.

Either way, he belongs in the conversation with most of the guys in that round 7-10 range, and I really only jumped into this debate to point out that the argument being used against him was the same as the one that was used against the guy he's replacing.
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Parker's ADP was around 7-8 round when I drafted, but it has risen to 6.02 with news of Landry trade/domestic/team issues. 

I concur with your position - Hogan makes a fine 7th round pick. I suspect the same guy who took him there in my other league will take him even earlier in my draft on Saturday (he's in both leagues with me) 

be sure to make a Hogan projection for my unofficial contest. See my post for details.  ;)  

 
Mostly being serious, tell me who else is going to get hurt and I can better define expectations on Hogan. I will try to come up with revised Pats projections over the weekend.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Mostly being serious, tell me who else is going to get hurt and I can better define expectations on Hogan. I will try to come up with revised Pats projections over the weekend.
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Feel like you can pencil Gronk in for a missed game or 2. Can probably include Amendola in there too. Not sure if any of the RBs missing time would impact anything since there are so many of them.

 
MattFancy said:
Feel like you can pencil Gronk in for a missed game or 2. Can probably include Amendola in there too. Not sure if any of the RBs missing time would impact anything since there are so many of them.
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The other issue for NE players is wondering at what point do they start resting guys if they have locked up playoff positioning.

 
Anarchy99 said:
The other issue for NE players is wondering at what point do they start resting guys if they have locked up playoff positioning.
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That as well. Plus, you never know when the Hoodie may just decide to run the ball down a team's throat and give out 40 carries to his RBs.

 
MattFancy said:
That as well. Plus, you never know when the Hoodie may just decide to run the ball down a team's throat and give out 40 carries to his RBs.
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It has been my observation over that years that people tend to over project the individual contributors on NE, meaning that the sum of people's expectations is usually way above the actual numbers that the offense will produce. Or as I joke each year, they aren't posting 10,000 yards and 100 TD's on offense.

 
Anarchy99 said:
It has been my observation over that years that people tend to over project the individual contributors on NE, meaning that the sum of people's expectations is usually way above the actual numbers that the offense will produce. Or as I joke each year, they aren't posting 10,000 yards and 100 TD's on offense.
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Why Brady is usually the safest Pats Pick. And of course their kicker.

 
Anarchy99 said:
It has been my observation over that years that people tend to over project the individual contributors on NE, meaning that the sum of people's expectations is usually way above the actual numbers that the offense will produce. Or as I joke each year, they aren't posting 10,000 yards and 100 TD's on offense.
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Exactly this. Inside of a week I've seen topics about Gronk, White, Hogan, Lewis, and Cooks all with effusive praise and lofty projections. 

They can't all be 1000+, 100 catch, 10 TD guys. I mean, it's possible Brady throws 5000+ with 50+ TDs, but I'm a little skeptical. 

 
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leftcoastguy7 said:
Any recent auctions? I'd like a ballpark figure of what this guy is going for now.
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I got him as my WR7 for $2.50 out of a $250 total team budget. But other owners hadn't heard about Edelman's injury yet. 

 
I really don't get all the Hogan love.  The only way he does anything significantly more than last season is if Cooks is a complete bust.

Over the last 6 regular season games the targets were distributed as follows amongst the leaders:

Edelman - 71

White - 33

Hogan - 28

Mitchell - 28

Bennett - 24

Lewis - 19

In essence, Edelman is being replaced by Cooks and Bennett is being replaced by Gronk.  New England also added Dwayne Allen and Burkhead. Somehow, even though the surrounding talent has been upgraded, Hogan is expected to get a higher target share?  I don't think so.  Those 28 targets over the last 6 extrapolate to 75 targets;  I think that is Hogan's ceiling.

As sorted through this, I realized that if Cooks was a complete bust, it is not Hogan I'd want to have, it's Mitchell.

 
I am so intrigued by Hogan (and I should know better being a Pats fan)...the one thing that is very apparent with him is he has TB's total trust...that is always the most important factor to be a Patriots WR...if he doesn't trust you you will be completely useless to him...I think last year's playoff performances are a preview as to what he can do for a whole season (especially now that Edelman is gone)...in those three games he had 17 catches on 23 targets...he was a main cog in their offense...I think he picks up where he left off and becomes a very strong #3 FF WR this season that could have some weeks that put you over the top...

 
Nero said:
I really don't get all the Hogan love.  The only way he does anything significantly more than last season is if Cooks is a complete bust.

Over the last 6 regular season games the targets were distributed as follows amongst the leaders:

Edelman - 71

White - 33

Hogan - 28

Mitchell - 28

Bennett - 24

Lewis - 19

In essence, Edelman is being replaced by Cooks and Bennett is being replaced by Gronk.  New England also added Dwayne Allen and Burkhead. Somehow, even though the surrounding talent has been upgraded, Hogan is expected to get a higher target share?  I don't think so.  Those 28 targets over the last 6 extrapolate to 75 targets;  I think that is Hogan's ceiling.

As sorted through this, I realized that if Cooks was a complete bust, it is not Hogan I'd want to have, it's Mitchell.
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Since I can't tell who reads the stuff I post, Mitchell hasn't practiced since the Super Bowl and has been nursing a knee injury that hasn't gone away. 

And Hogan had 17 catches for 332 yards and 2 TD on 23 targets in the post season. Does that not count for anything?

Hogan is expected to be on the field for all two receiver sets (or more), so likely 70-75% or more. 

I don't see why MORE people aren't seeing the opportunity here. 

ETA: Mitchell finally got cleared to practice mid week this week, but the point remains he is well behind the other options at this point. 

 
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Boston said:
I think last year's playoff performances are a preview as to what he can do for a whole season
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No way. The Pats had 143 passing attempts in those games... that scales to 763 passing attempts over 16 games. That is clearly not representative of anything that should be expected this season.

And entering this season, Gronk, Cooks, Gilislee, and Burkhead replace Edelman, Bennett, and Blount from that 3 game playoff stretch last season. That looks like it should reduce Hogan's target share, not increase it.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
Since I can't tell who reads the stuff I post, Mitchell hasn't practiced since the Super Bowl and has been nursing a knee injury that hasn't gone away. 

And Hogan had 17 catches for 332 yards and 2 TD on 23 targets in the post season. Does that not count for anything?

Hogan is expected to be on the field for all two receiver sets (or more), so likely 70-75% or more. 

I don't see why MORE people aren't seeing the opportunity here. 

ETA: Mitchell finally got cleared to practice mid week this week, but the point remains he is well behind the other options at this point. 
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Even in the playoffs, he was the third target behind Edelman and White/Lewis. Now he'll likely be fourth behind Cooks, Gronk, White/Lewis. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
No way. The Pats had 143 passing attempts in those games... that scales to 763 passing attempts over 16 games. That is clearly not representative of anything that should be expected this season.

And entering this season, Gronk, Cooks, Gilislee, and Burkhead replace Edelman, Bennett, and Blount from that 3 game playoff stretch last season. That looks like it should reduce Hogan's target share, not increase it.
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We will have to agree to disagree...I just feel Hogan is now in Brady's inner-circle and those guys are usually pretty productive...

 
Anarchy99 said:
Since I can't tell who reads the stuff I post, Mitchell hasn't practiced since the Super Bowl and has been nursing a knee injury that hasn't gone away. 

And Hogan had 17 catches for 332 yards and 2 TD on 23 targets in the post season. Does that not count for anything?

Hogan is expected to be on the field for all two receiver sets (or more), so likely 70-75% or more. 

I don't see why MORE people aren't seeing the opportunity here. 

ETA: Mitchell finally got cleared to practice mid week this week, but the point remains he is well behind the other options at this point. 
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I totally agree with you...I see the exact same thing you do...that being said I do understand the caution others have with him...the Pats have so many options it is easy to see a scenario where he is nothing special...when you get into the Pats skill players there are a lot of moving parts...that being said I think those that pick Hogan a little higher then they were planning to might still get a real bargain...

 
If any of you listen to the DLF Dynasty Podcast they had an interesting conversation today with Evan Silva from Rotoworld centered around a recent trade he made in Rotoworld's dynasty league where he traded his first round rookie pick next year for Hogan.

He's obviously higher than most on Hogan but just some of the cliff notes of why he did it and his take on the Edelman injury:

1. Was initially viewing Cooks as more of a best ball dart but now thinks he'll be much more consistent and a borderline WR1

2. Thinks Hogan will be the bigger beneficiary and is now a sure fire top 35 fantasy WR with an enormous ceiling

3. Discussed how in sync Brady/Hogan looked in the 3rd preseason game

4. In Hogan's first season with the pats he showed big play ability and he showed the ability to win both inside and outside

5. Said his trust with Tom Brady gives him a big edge and said it isn't crazy to suggest Hogan could outscore Cooks this season.

6. Thinks 1000 yds and 8-10 TDs is very much in his potential ranges of outcomes

7. Thinks people are sleeping on just how good Hogan really is

8. Discussed Malcolm Mitchell having chronic knee issues since college.

 
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msommer said:
And he's got some effing amazing hands to go with great situational awareness as evidenced in the SB. 
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not sure if you are serious about the effing amazing hands thing.

You’re probably shocked to see Edelman here, and I don’t blame you. He’s the sparkplug behind the most ruthlessly efficient offense the NFL has to offer. But there’s no disputing the fact that he has a disturbing tendency to drop balls he shouldn’t, especially with the amount of short routes he runs.

This is no small sample size fluke. Since becoming an integral part of New England’s offense in 2013, Edelman has the most dropped passes in the NFL (31), and it’s not particularly close.
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Are we allowed to discuss his FABB value? He is available in all my early drafts FABB claims next week and I'm curious as to what some of you would be willing to bid? 

 
candian fantasy guy said:
Are we allowed to discuss his FABB value? He is available in all my early drafts FABB claims next week and I'm curious as to what some of you would be willing to bid? 
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This is the info that is most useful. 

I'm new to the whole FAAB thing as my main big cash league just started it this year. I think knowing the owners tendencies will be useful in this format.

Im putting in for 16% of my budget for him. Only person I think that woold outbid that would be the Edelman owner. 

I think he's one of the better WR pickup prospects that will be available for the season.

 
The General said:
This is the info that is most useful. 

I'm new to the whole FAAB thing as my main big cash league just started it this year. I think knowing the owners tendencies will be useful in this format.

Im putting in for 16% of my budget for him. Only person I think that woold outbid that would be the Edelman owner. 

I think he's one of the better WR pickup prospects that will be available for the season.
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I doubt the 16% will cut it in my leagues, I'm thinking 50%+ but I'm passing at that price. I lost Enunwa in a couple of leagues, in those cases I'm thinking 35% or so.

my 2 cents

 
candian fantasy guy said:
I doubt the 16% will cut it in my leagues, I'm thinking 50%+ but I'm passing at that price. I lost Enunwa in a couple of leagues, in those cases I'm thinking 35% or so.

my 2 cents
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Good to know. I may up a little. Not having done this format not really sure how many premium players come up each year. All the main backup RB's are gone. 

 
msommer said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qcr_6__wuoo
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if tipped ball drill is the basis for great hands (and consistently catching the ball isn't), how do we feel about David Tyree's hands?

i still maintain the pats o won't miss a beat and Edelman's production will be replaced just like the once-irreplaceable Welker's was. you guys didn't lose Brady/Gronk/Cooks. those are the difference makers on o. the rest are replaceable, pretty easily in most cases.

 
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What a steal he is going to be in the 7th and 8th round this is guy is. Someone posted the number of targets/receptions from Welker down to Edelman, he should get 110-120 targets this season, which would mean 80-90 receptions. I also think NE will pass less this season, there is a reason they signed 2 rb's this season, 

However, we could be looking at this all wrong - see this video https://youtu.be/28xkibu2vtU  skip the first 45 seconds. 

 
hardcoredx said:
he should get 110-120 targets this season, which would mean 80-90 receptions. I also think NE will pass less this season
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1. He won't get 110+ targets unless the higher value targets (Gronk, Cooks) combine to miss several games. He probably won't be particularly close, either.

2. If he does get 110-120 targets, to catch 80-90 of them seems to imply a catch rate of >70%. I'll take the under.

3. Saying NE will pass less this season is counter to the idea that he will get the volume of targets and receptions you posted... particularly since the Pats only had 550 pass attempts last season, which was already just #23 in the NFL.

 
Injuries to Hogan,Amendola, and Mitchell  are probably going to happen. It won't surprise me if his targets increase in the 2nd half of the season like it did for Hogan last year

 
According to ESPN Patriots reporter Mike Reiss, the Patriots are expected to "manage" Danny Amendola's snaps this season, even in the absence of Julian Edelman.

Amendola has never been able to handle a starter's workload across a 16-game season, dating back to his time with the Rams. The fantasy community has been looking at Amendola as a riser in the wake of Edelman's torn ACL, but it makes more sense for the Patriots to move Chris Hogan into the slot and continue to rotate wideouts behind he and Brandin Cooks. Amendola has Tom Brady's trust, but opportunity may not be there to warrant using a single-digit-round fantasy pick on him. However, there are worse fliers in the back ends of drafts.

Source: ESPN.com

Sep 2 - 6:53 PM

 
hardcoredx said:
What a steal he is going to be in the 7th and 8th round this is guy is. Someone posted the number of targets/receptions from Welker down to Edelman, he should get 110-120 targets this season, which would mean 80-90 receptions. I also think NE will pass less this season, there is a reason they signed 2 rb's this season, 

However, we could be looking at this all wrong - see this video https://youtu.be/28xkibu2vtU  skip the first 45 seconds. 
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thanks for sharing, great stuff

 
hardcoredx said:
I also think NE will pass less this season, there is a reason they signed 2 rb's this season,
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I have been expecting NE to pass less and run more the past few years as Brady got older. As far as signing two RB's, they lost a guy that had 342 touches between the regular season and playoffs last year. That's a lot of touches to fill this year.

 
So I got him for 19%.

However the commish looks like he started pickups early so teams are going to say they didn't put their bids in so now everyone knows the minimum to bid.

Cluster####.

 
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