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Chris Hogan, WR (2 Viewers)

In my 12 team Super-flex, PPR draft yesterday Hogan was drafted at 10.6 as the #35 WR off the board (Amendola was drafted 8.12 as the #30 WR off the board).  He is that team's #3 WR behind A.Jeffery and S.Diggs.

D.Jackson, D.Walker (we combine WR&TE into one position), R.Cobb & D.Parker went after Hogan.  Personally I would have taken D.Parker over Hogan because I think Cutler is going to radar lock onto him guaranteeing his week-over-week opportunities while Hogan's opportunities will be far more variable.

If I owned Hogan in a redraft I would be praying for a very strong opening 2-3 weeks and then I would trade him for whatever I could get.

 
Chaka, why do you think Cutler is going to lock onto Parker, exactly?

Also, please comment on the real estate thread I'm about to bump in the FFA.  Re: Cardiff by the Sea!

 
Anarchy99 said:
Since I can't tell who reads the stuff I post, Mitchell hasn't practiced since the Super Bowl and has been nursing a knee injury that hasn't gone away. 

And Hogan had 17 catches for 332 yards and 2 TD on 23 targets in the post season. Does that not count for anything?

Hogan is expected to be on the field for all two receiver sets (or more), so likely 70-75% or more. 

I don't see why MORE people aren't seeing the opportunity here. 

ETA: Mitchell finally got cleared to practice mid week this week, but the point remains he is well behind the other options at this point. 
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Boston said:
I totally agree with you...I see the exact same thing you do...that being said I do understand the caution others have with him...the Pats have so many options it is easy to see a scenario where he is nothing special...when you get into the Pats skill players there are a lot of moving parts...that being said I think those that pick Hogan a little higher then they were planning to might still get a real bargain...
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good stuff..the doubters need to know who the main cog in the offense was once Edelman went down..ti was NOT Cooks , it was Hogan. he fits Brady like a glove..you could see the chemistry starting to develop last season. As a Cooks backer, I'm beginning to think he's not fully involved in the offense, he doesn't quite get it yet, something seems off..either BB is being very coy with Cooks and he's going to unleash him starting in week 1, or there's a wide gap between he and Brady,and the offense as a whole. Chad Johnson and Reggie Wayne both failed to catch on in NE  seems that the offense isn't for everyone..

Hogan now looks like a quality sleeper candidate in later rounds that might post Edelman-lite numbers..Cooks might get his share but I think the projects are way off..so instead of 90-95 recs he was projected for sans Edelman, maybe that number is more like 70-75 recs instead...

we know Amendola can't play anymore, so he's ot a threat to carry the torch, and the backfield is a mess with no true #1 just a bunch of guys ..so yes, Brady is likely to see an uptick in passing attempts in 2017, perhaps a big uptick..if that happens, Hogan clearly benefits rather than sitting on the back burner..

 
Tanner9919 said:
As a Cooks backer, I'm beginning to think he's not fully involved in the offense, he doesn't quite get it yet, something seems off..either BB is being very coy with Cooks and he's going to unleash him starting in week 1, or there's a wide gap between he and Brady,and the offense as a whole. 
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Just my impression but I sometimes notice a need to say why Cooks will be limited in some way in order to explain who else will do well in NE. I don't think that's necessary. Cooks is a quick study and a learner. He's an extremely hard worker. He can run all routes, including over the middle. He can handle backfield work and bubble screens. He can sky in the red zone like a tight end. I think the only limitation on him is that BB is a great coach who will always keep defenses guessing. Cooks owners may get frustrated at some point but only because the Pats won't allow defensive coordinators insight to their game plan any more than fantasy owners.

 
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Boston said:
I just feel Hogan is now in Brady's inner-circle and those guys are usually pretty productive...
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This sums up my feeling as well. I think Cooks is good enough to bypass the "inner-circle" thing, but I think Hogan will still have a monster year, relative to his draft position.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Just my impression but I sometimes notice a need to say why Cooks will be limited in some way in order to explain who else will do well in NE. I don't think that's necessary. Cooks is a quick study and a learner. He's an extremely hard worker. He can run all routes, including over the middle. He can handle backfield work and bubble screens. He can sky in the red zone like a tight end. I think the only limitation on him is that BB is a great coach who will always keep defenses guessing. Cooks owners may get frustrated at some point but only because the Pats won't allow defensive coordinators insight to their game plan any more than fantasy owners.
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I still disagree. Owned Cooks the past two seasons. Very up and down player--the monster weeks are monster but he doesn't usually perform WR1. If he ran all the routes you'd think Brees and company would have utilized that. But he was the deep threat while Thomas basically took over the possession WR1 role. Huge year (relative to ADP) for Hogan coming 

 
timbrah_ho said:
I still disagree. Owned Cooks the past two seasons. Very up and down player--the monster weeks are monster but he doesn't usually perform WR1. If he ran all the routes you'd think Brees and company would have utilized that. But he was the deep threat while Thomas basically took over the possession WR1 role. Huge year (relative to ADP) for Hogan coming 
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I think Cooks is going to have a career year. One of the reasons for the up and down games is that the Saints are not good on the road. Just look at Cooks' home/away splits. I expect much better road numbers with the Pats.

It's entirely possible that both Cooks and Hogan have huge years.

 
hardcoredx said:
What a steal he is going to be in the 7th and 8th round this is guy is. Someone posted the number of targets/receptions from Welker down to Edelman, he should get 110-120 targets this season, which would mean 80-90 receptions. I also think NE will pass less this season, there is a reason they signed 2 rb's this season, 

However, we could be looking at this all wrong - see this video https://youtu.be/28xkibu2vtU  skip the first 45 seconds. 
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Great video -- the guy who does these Film Room videos creates some really compelling and intelligent content.

That said, while I agree with the notion that we'll see the backs pick up a lot of Edelman's role, it won't be just one. The video clues in on White, but I have to think that if Dion Lewis was fully healthy, he could contribute all that White does -- maybe more in terms of his elusiveness, maybe a tad less in terms of grit. But pushing in the chips all in on White to pick up Edelman's role seems to overlook the depth and talent of other guys on the roster outside of White.

As to Hogan, we'll see. Cautiously optimistic, but as the video shows, Edelman is damned special. Not sure Hogan brings all of those skills (hands, toughness over the middle, dogged persistence to stay on the ball, crazy quick moves, etc.) to the table at the same level.

 
TwinTurbo said:
I think Cooks is going to have a career year. One of the reasons for the up and down games is that the Saints are not good on the road. Just look at Cooks' home/away splits. I expect much better road numbers with the Pats.

It's entirely possible that both Cooks and Hogan have huge years.
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i think they will

 
I might have to roll both Cooks and Hogan out in a league where the TB/MIA game ####ed me. I don't want to.

 
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TwinTurbo said:
I think Cooks is going to have a career year. One of the reasons for the up and down games is that the Saints are not good on the road. Just look at Cooks' home/away splits. I expect much better road numbers with the Pats.

It's entirely possible that both Cooks and Hogan have huge years.
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Or, Cooks is not that good on the road and NE will have much worse road numbers with him.  Just sayin'.......

 
apalmer said:
Or, Cooks is not that good on the road and NE will have much worse road numbers with him.  Just sayin'.......
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Maybe Cooks wasn't good on the road because Brees wasn't good on the road. IMO, people are putting way too much stock on what happened in New Orleans. 

 
I have Hogan but a lot of people here are overlooking Amendola and poorly comparing Hogan to Edelman because they're white I guess. They're not similar WRs.

 
JIMGET said:
Man...playing the wide receiver race card!
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He's got a good overall point, though. I don't see how people aren't worried about Amendola getting some of those snaps/targets vacated by Edelman. I don't see Hogan stepping right into Edelman's shoes.

 
TartanLion said:
Exact same issue. What's more is, I even have Brady at QB as well 
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You can win your week by 10pm tomorrow night! 

I'm considering rolling Cooks, Hogan and Gronk in same league. 3 TDs combined is not a bad floor. 

 
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creepythinman said:
I have Hogan but a lot of people here are overlooking Amendola and poorly comparing Hogan to Edelman because they're white I guess. They're not similar WRs.
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People think Hogan can fill the role because a majority of his targets came from the slot last year and he performed well with them. Yeah, that's probably it.

Amendola's body doesn't like football.

 
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I like Hogan but I feel like you are going to get some goose eggs along with big games. What round are you guys targeting him in standard?

 
Weebs210 said:
I like Hogan but I feel like you are going to get some goose eggs along with big games. What round are you guys targeting him in standard?
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Its about the weeks now, drafts are over mostly.

Is he a good start this week? I say yes.

 
Was discussed earlier but worth bumping again. What are people seeing his FAAB bid % at?

People earlier were saying upwards of 50% a few pages back. 

Anyone else's league run these yet?

 
sooted72 said:
i dont know who greg bedard is. i think he used to pitch for the orioles or something. but this is perhaps the dumbest thing ever written.
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Not saying he is always right but he is one of the most respected sports writers in this area...he treats football like a chemist...if there is any knock on him it is he gets caught up in too much minutiae...he maybe wrong but I can guarantee you he doesn't say something like that without a ton of research...

 
creepythinman said:
I have Hogan but a lot of people here are overlooking Amendola and poorly comparing Hogan to Edelman because they're white I guess. They're not similar WRs.
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The comparison stems from the potential for Hogan to assume Edelman's role in the slot, as is being widely speculated, and is surely the basis for why anyone might be inclined to predict anything close to 100 receptions.

 
davearm said:
The comparison stems from the potential for Hogan to assume Edelman's role in the slot, as is being widely speculated, and is surely the basis for why anyone might be inclined to predict anything close to 100 receptions.
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Playing the slot is not really Hogan's forte. He is a classic Z receiver. He's a pretty big guy and I don't see him running all those short outs that Edelman and Welker

So, I'm still wondering where the perception that he's a slot guy is coming from. I find it just as likely that Cooks, Amendola or even Burkhead will play most of the snaps at slot.

 
creepythinman said:
Playing the slot is not really Hogan's forte. He is a classic Z receiver. He's a pretty big guy and I don't see him running all those short outs that Edelman and Welker

So, I'm still wondering where the perception that he's a slot guy is coming from. I find it just as likely that Cooks, Amendola or even Burkhead will play most of the snaps at slot.
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It's probably stems from the fact that on top of lining up outside, he spent a fair amount of time in the slot last year. A majority of his 58 targets came from the slot. It's not like he has zero experience playing the position. 

 
SameSongNDance said:
It's probably stems from the fact that on top of lining up outside, he spent a fair amount of time in the slot last year. A majority of his 58 targets came from the slot. It's not like he has zero experience playing the position. 
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Last year, Hogan saw 80 targets -- 54 from a perimeter position (X or Z) and 26 from the slot (Y).

Not to say he's not a slot receiver, anyone can be a slot receiver. But he's less shifty Edelman/Welker and more of a downfield threat.

 
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creepythinman said:
Last year, Hogan saw 80 targets -- 54 from a perimeter position (X or Z) and 26 from the slot (Y).

Not to say he's not a slot receiver, anyone can be a slot receiver. But he's less shifty Edelman/Welker and more of a downfield threat.
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I don't think anyone's disagreeing that Hogan is different than the other two in terms of his basic skillset (not to mention size).  But as you just illustrated, Hogan's skillset is not incompatible with the slot role.

The reason to compare Hogan to Edelman is because Hogan may now be playing the position Edelman just vacated.

 
davearm said:
I don't think anyone's disagreeing that Hogan is different than the other two in terms of his basic skillset (not to mention size).  But as you just illustrated, Hogan's skillset is not incompatible with the slot role.

The reason to compare Hogan to Edelman is because Hogan may now be playing the position Edelman just vacated.
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One can only hope!

 
creepythinman said:
Last year, Hogan saw 80 targets -- 54 from a perimeter position (X or Z) and 26 from the slot (Y).

Not to say he's not a slot receiver, anyone can be a slot receiver. But he's less shifty Edelman/Welker and more of a downfield threat.
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I don't have any post season data. During the regular season he saw 32 targets from the slot, 26 from the outside. The only stat I can find that takes into account the post season is that he caught 20 of his 26 slot targets - 9 of which were for 20+ yards.

You're right the he doesn't profile exactly like Edelman/Welker but he's still plenty quick for his size and is willing to go over the middle and make the tough catches. I don't think he's going to monopolize that role but I do think we see him lining the slot often, specifically in 11 personnel packages that include Cooks, Hogan and Mitchell. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe Cooks mans the slot in those situations but I feel like they'll want to keep him on the outside more often than not.

 
sooted72 said:
i dont know who greg bedard is. i think he used to pitch for the orioles or something. but this is perhaps the dumbest thing ever written.
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Hahaha, I'm not kidding - that was my first thought, too. Definitely remembered the name Bedard from my (long past) fantasy baseball days. 

 
I drafted him last night as my wr3. I didn't do it for any or reason but these 2 (the most important ones): 1) Brady trusts him), 2) belichek publicly called him one of their best players. 

That's enough for me.  When Brady trusts a wr and belicheck talks that way about him, that's the tell.  He's going to be a big part of what they do this year with Edelman out. 

Last year he was getting acclimated to the offense and building rapport with Brady.  This year he's going to be a main cog.  

Jmho

 
Boston said:
Not saying he is always right but he is one of the most respected sports writers in this area...he treats football like a chemist...if there is any knock on him it is he gets caught up in too much minutiae...he maybe wrong but I can guarantee you he doesn't say something like that without a ton of research...
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i probaby didnt articulate this properly in my original post but my problem with the statement is the "conviction" part.  ill agree that hogan should be a bigger part of the offense this year. but still to say with any kind of certainty that he should have 'at least 100 catches' is just flat out insane no matter how you slice it.

first of all, only about 5 guys do it every year in the current nfl environment (its like 19 over last 4 seasons).  so that's strike 1 against.  just not many people do it.

lets run some numbers real quick.  looking at last years stats if we generously use stats from wk 12-21 (starting when hogan kinda became a permanent fixture in the offense through the playoffs) he was targeted 5.7 times a game with a respectable 70.6 reception %. keeping that same reception % hed have to increase his targets to 9 per game to catch 100 balls.  only 13 wrs were targeted that much in the entire nfl (12 if you dont count kevin white who only played 4 games).  also you deal with the issue of reception % in that it tends to decrease the more targets you get.  the only person in the entire nfl who was above the 9 target per game and 70.6 reception % was fitz.

the 9 targets a game in this offense with these weapons seems unlikely (though not improbable) and such a high reception % over such a high amount of targets seems even more unlikely.

theres a nonzero chance he gets there but really this just doesnt seems like something you could say 'with conviction' after doing 'a ton of research'.

 
I'm going to make a broader point.

The offense McDaniels runs is predicated on the short passing game, that is its bread and butter. It uses Welker/Edelman style WRs who specialize in very short patterns, and passes to backs and TEs.

Everyone remembers the year Tom Brady went deep to Moss but that's not how McDaniels runs his offense and that's not the player Brady is now. Brady is a precision surgeon who'll slice you and dice you with the short passing game, not a downfield flinger. There is some evidence he's lost his downfield accuracy in recent years too.

Hogan is more of a straight line, downfield threat guy than a weapon in the short passing game. He is not shifty enough to play the Edelman slot role.

I think the consequence of Edelman's injury is going to be a return to more 2 TE sets. We know the Pats have loved those since the days of Gronk and Hernandez, and the fact they've got Gronk and Allen now makes me think they'll utilise that a lot.

I also think they will use Amendola in the slot role, although not as much as they used Edelman.

I do think Hogan gets an uptick this year because of the absence of Edelman and increased familiarity his second year in the offense but I don't think he puts up Edelman-style numbers.

 
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Miro Z said:
I'm going to make a broader point.

The offense McDaniels runs is predicated on the short passing game, that is its bread and butter. It uses Welker/Edelman style WRs who specialize in very short patterns, and passes to backs and TEs.

Everyone remembers the year Tom Brady went deep to Moss but that's not how McDaniels runs his offense and that's not the player Brady is now. Brady is a precision surgeon who'll slice you and dice you with the short passing game, not a downfield flinger. There is some evidence he's lost his downfield accuracy in recent years too.

Hogan is more of a straight line, downfield threat guy than a weapon in the short passing game. He is not shifty enough to play the Edelman slot role.

I think the consequence of Edelman's injury is going to be a return to more 2 TE sets. We know the Pats have loved those since the days of Gronk and Hernandez, and the fact they've got Gronk and Allen now makes me think they'll utilise that a lot.

I also think they will use Amendola in the slot role, although not as much as they used Edelman.

I do think Hogan gets an uptick this year because of the absence of Edelman and increased familiarity his second year in the offense but I don't think he puts up Edelman-style numbers.
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I agree with most all of that but don't see the evidence of Brady losing downfield accuracy in recent years. It has never really been a strength since the O has almost always been centered on short to intermediate passing and recs best suited to that style of play. However last year Brady actually improved his down field passing and while I don't have the final stats Im pretty confident he was near the top (relatively speaking) of the league and likely had one of his best years (sans Moss).

 
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