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Chris Hogan, WR (3 Viewers)

cloppbeast said:
I'm not an expert by any means; but fwiw, I think running backs line up out wide to take advantage of linebackers not cornerbacks. 
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I guess I was thinking of actually using them as receivers. Like Bill used Troy Brown at corner and WR. Using their athleticism in a variety of ways. I kind of thought that was the whole point in getting Burkhead; to be a swiss army knife type guy that can play a variety of positions. Like I said, maybe they did and I missed it but Rex got a whopping 10 snaps, Lewis only 6. I'm just not sure why those guys combined had less snaps than Phillip Dorsett who had 18. Hard to believe they would of thought he'd be more effective after being there for a week and not being that great of a WR to begin with. 

 
ericttspikes said:
I guess I was thinking of actually using them as receivers. Like Bill used Troy Brown at corner and WR. Using their athleticism in a variety of ways. I kind of thought that was the whole point in getting Burkhead; to be a swiss army knife type guy that can play a variety of positions. Like I said, maybe they did and I missed it but Rex got a whopping 10 snaps, Lewis only 6. I'm just not sure why those guys combined had less snaps than Phillip Dorsett who had 18. Hard to believe they would of thought he'd be more effective after being there for a week and not being that great of a WR to begin with. 
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They're used as wr from time to time but to take advantage of mismatches.  Burkhead did that on at least one play, not sure if there were others. They have wr's to actually play the wr position.

 
hamsterdam said:
Yeah I was pretty bullish on Hogan and I've tempered my expectations. Still a hold in my opinion. Amendola may miss time.

3 rushes and 5 targets isn't so bad. The Pats passing offense had a bad day all around. NO next week is interesting.
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Hogan played 73/81 of snaps, Brady only went 16/36 and their defense looked horrendous.  His FF points weren't a true reflection of that game script.

 
Boone22 said:
Since nobody knows and everyone is guessing I'm just going to toss out a stat line and see how close I get come the end of the year...

93 targets, 60 catches, 930 yards receiving, 7 TDs

which in PPR puts him at 195 points which equals WR 20-24, so low end WR2 in a twelve team league. 
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So through 3 weeks he's sporting 10 catches for 154 yards with 3 TDs. 

Hes averaging 6 targets a game (not counting rushing attempts).

He's currently WR #12 in my league in total points and WR #17 in average points per game.

If we assume the targets stay the same we are looking at 90 targets for a full schedule. 

I don't think the TDs are sustainable but I think the 15.4 yards per catch is and I think his catch percentage should increase from the current 59% considering week 1 is probably an outlier (1 catch out of 5 targets). 

So I'm sticking with my initial projection above, although I think the number of TDs might be a little low...

 
had to play him this week cause cobb was hurt.  hes staying in my lineup. pats are starting to click and hes right in the middle of it

 
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need2know said:
had to play him this week cause cobb was hurt.  hes staying in my lineup. pats are starting to click and hes right in the middle of it
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I sat him but fortunately it didn't matter. In the weird position of having Brady, Cooks and Hogan on the same roster. Can look at it like Brady will throw multiple TDs most weeks and you will get the benefit of most of those TDs by rolling out those two, or that if he has a dud then you will be in big trouble. Happened week 1 on the dud front, week 2 you got 2 good starts out of the three, then week 3 was an all round bonanza. Unsure as to how to proceed in coming weeks but one thought is to try trade away one of Cooks or Hogan  

 
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Have both Hogan and Amendola on my roster.  Probably going to keep rolling with Hogan as long as he is catching a TD pass from red hot Brady.

 
TartanLion said:
I sat him but fortunately it didn't matter. In the weird position of having Brady, Cooks and Hogan on the same roster. Can look at it like Brady will throw multiple TDs most weeks and you will get the benefit of most of those TDs by rolling out those two, or that if he has a dud then you will be in big trouble. Happened week 1 on the dud front, week 2 you got 2 good starts out of the three, then week 3 was an all round bonanza. Unsure as to how to proceed in coming weeks but one thought is to try trade away one of Cooks or Hogan  
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I'm considering selling high on Hogan. Can't argue with the recent production but do I really want to keep playing Patriot Roulette every week?

 
I dont think we see a negative trend in his production barring injury 

Week 2 he was less than 100% and the targets were still there.

 
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He is the 5th highest scoring WR in my league through 3 weeks. Pats D is horrible so I think they are going to continue to have to outscore teams to win. Also, I really like their schedule over the next several weeks. 

 
davearm said:
I'm angling to package Hogan with a RB to get a legit WR1.
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This is what I did today, for the most part.

I have Gronk, and didn't really like having to put out Gronk and Hogan every week...

traded CJ Anderson, Hogan, and Hunter Henry for Ingram and AJ Green.

I held on to Jamal Charles, and he held on to AP. 

 
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Looking to trade Hogan ASAP. Left wide open on 2 blown assignments for his 2 TDs, looking for a WR2 or RB2 for basically Malcolm Mitchell.

 
creepythinman said:
Looking to trade Hogan ASAP. Left wide open on 2 blown assignments for his 2 TDs, looking for a WR2 or RB2 for basically Malcolm Mitchell.
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Hoping owner in my dynasty is thinking this way. I'm a Pats Homer. This is neither the first nor last time Hogan will be left all by himself for scores. 

 
tombonneau said:
Hoping owner in my dynasty is thinking this way. I'm a Pats Homer. This is neither the first nor last time Hogan will be left all by himself for scores. 
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To my point, halfway through Belichick Breakdown of top plays vs Texans he shows how they drew up a play on the fly to adjust to what safeties were doing which freed up Hogan for deep TD. Really interesting insights and shows "how did a guy get that open."

http://www.patriots.com/media-center/videos/belichick-breakdowns

 
hamsterdam said:
So to the people who are high on Hogan ROS, where do you guys put him? WR2?
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Boom/Bust WR2 because he's on the Pats and its always roulette with that team. I think more boom than bust but I'm never going to roll him out and feel totally confident about it. 

 
He's pace for 96 targets and a 53/821/16 line. I..want to sell because the TD pace is almost certainly unsustainable. You could call week 1 a fluke, in which case he should probably be on more of a 69/1000/16 pace. He could have a 2016 Davante Adams or 2015 Doug Baldwin type year. I'm up in the air. If Brady wasn't playing out of his gourd this would be an easy sell.

I actually think the 2015 Doug Baldwin comp, where he turned 103 targets into a  78/1069/14 line is the closest you'll find. He'll give you 7-8 duds and win you the other 7-8. 

 
SameSongNDance said:
He's pace for 96 targets and a 53/821/16 line. I..want to sell because the TD pace is almost certainly unsustainable. You could call week 1 a fluke, in which case he should probably be on more of a 69/1000/16 pace. He could have a 2016 Davante Adams or 2015 Doug Baldwin type year. I'm up in the air. If Brady wasn't playing out of his gourd this would be an easy sell.

I actually think the 2015 Doug Baldwin comp, where he turned 103 targets into a  78/1069/14 line is the closest you'll find. He'll give you 7-8 duds and win you the other 7-8. 
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I guess that's not horrible if you're getting that from your WR2, and what more can you ask from your WR3? I would love to sell high on him, but he's not really sexy, and no one is knocking down the door to get him. This might be a situation where you just hold and reap the benefits of a guy you probably drafted pretty cheaply.

 
Let's be honest, there are not as many mouths to feed in NE as we'd thought.  Amendola is a walking injury waiting to happen, and Edelman's obviously toast.  Heck, they were putting Rex Burkhead at WR, and even he got hurt.

The guy is a former Lax player, seems pretty tough... he's a faster than you'd think guy that gets fluky long hauls because he's totally open.  Until its fluke, and another, and another. 

That said, knowing my league mates, no one is paying close to his production to date, value.  Perception is not going to yield enough value in a trade, imo, in most competitive leagues. And yeah, there will be down weeks. 

Name me a WR who doesn't have them outside of maybe 2-3 guys. And even they lay an egg now and then.

I will say this, Hogan in a start 2 WR league holds a lot less than a start 3 WR.  In the latter, he's drafted as a #5 or best #4 if you "knew something" and is performing like a 2 at this point. For deep WR leagues, thats big. 

 
Like with the Cooks thread, why can't people just enjoy getting Top 5 production from two NE receivers? There are plenty of other guys underperforming that aren't getting discussed. But instead, let's rag on the guys that are actually producing. Odd. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Like with the Cooks thread, why can't people just enjoy getting Top 5 production from two NE receivers? There are plenty of other guys underperforming that aren't getting discussed. But instead, let's rag on the guys that are actually producing. Odd. 
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I don't think anyones really ragging on the dude. I got him in the 9th round and have been extremely pleased so far. It's just that Pats players are gonna have wild swings due to the nature of the system so it makes it hard to "enjoy top 5 production" when every time you put one of them out there you feel like you're just as likely to get bottom 5 production 

 
tombonneau said:
To my point, halfway through Belichick Breakdown of top plays vs Texans he shows how they drew up a play on the fly to adjust to what safeties were doing which freed up Hogan for deep TD. Really interesting insights and shows "how did a guy get that open."

http://www.patriots.com/media-center/videos/belichick-breakdowns
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Love the breakdown and how Belichick said McDaniels picked up on the two Texan DBs talking after one play caused them to adjust Hogan's route. Great stuff there.

 
Snickers said:
Love the breakdown and how Belichick said McDaniels picked up on the two Texan DBs talking after one play caused them to adjust Hogan's route. Great stuff there.
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Yeah. These segments are a must watch for any football fan. Even a die hard BB hater has to appreciate his intelligence and passion for the little things.

This season they have kind of shifted the format. He used to breakdown like 5-6 plays pretty quickly, but the the last two weeks (he only does it after wins) he's just done 2-3 but gone even more in depth.

The bit with McDaniels picking up on the DBs talking after the route was pretty impressive.

 
tombonneau said:
Yeah. These segments are a must watch for any football fan. Even a die hard BB hater has to appreciate his intelligence and passion for the little things.

This season they have kind of shifted the format. He used to breakdown like 5-6 plays pretty quickly, but the the last two weeks (he only does it after wins) he's just done 2-3 but gone even more in depth.

The bit with McDaniels picking up on the DBs talking after the route was pretty impressive.
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BB and his intelligence may want to re involve himselfwith the defensive side.

 
Snickers said:
Love the breakdown and how Belichick said McDaniels picked up on the two Texan DBs talking after one play caused them to adjust Hogan's route. Great stuff there.
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Yep.  Great stuff. I sat down with my 9 year old son after and re-watched it with him and sort of paused and walked him through it a little slower.  Man, just a nice little nugget of how the GOAT thinks.  Just the smallest of slivers into the mind of a football genius.  Love that he gives McD the love too.  I would expect nothing less.  Just A++ stuff for sure.

 
BigSteelThrill said:
Just traded for him in my main (16tm) league.  Very okay with roller coaster production if the high games are really high.
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I don't get why people expect a roller coaster of production. Every fantasy WR not named Antonio Brown is going to have bad days. I think Hogan actually may be more consistent than most

 
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Wise Old Owl said:
I don't get why people expect a roller coaster of production. Every fantasy WR not named Antonio Brown is going to have bad days. I think Hogan actually may be more consistent than most
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Was just saying I was okay with big variances.  Not sure what will actually happen.

 
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Wise Old Owl said:
I don't get why people expect a roller coaster of production. Every fantasy WR not named Antonio Brown is going to have bad days. I think Hogan actually may be more consistent than most
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Indeed.

Last year Julio Jones had games of 16, 29, 29, and 35 yards, all with 0 TDs.  Odell had 23, 49, 46, 44 also all with 0 TDs.  That's 1/4 duds, for 2 of the top 3 WRs.

 
Despite BB being so inscrutable with his game planning, I have to think there is some kind of predictability of when Hogan will have a big game, based on a combination of strength of the opposing run vs pass D, personnel match up, etc. 

I know that the NE offense is predicated on creating mismatches, I just have no idea which game plan suits Hogan's success the best. Having an idea of the kinds of games NE tend to utilize Hogan's strengths -- doesn't have elite speed but can stretch the field and get behind defenders; creates separation; can freelance on short routes -- where other weapons (Gronk, White, Cooks, etc.) tend to be neutralized would really help narrow down a game "type" that makes Hogan a great play.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Despite BB being so inscrutable with his game planning, I have to think there is some kind of predictability of when Hogan will have a big game, based on a combination of strength of the opposing run vs pass D, personnel match up, etc.

I know that the NE offense is predicated on creating mismatches, I just have no idea which game plan suits Hogan's success the best. Having an idea of the kinds of games NE tend to utilize Hogan's strengths -- doesn't have elite speed but can stretch the field and get behind defenders; creates separation; can freelance on short routes -- where other weapons (Gronk, White, Cooks, etc.) tend to be neutralized would really help narrow down a game "type" that makes Hogan a great play.
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PFF article about how blitz heavy defensive gameplans effect certain players.

Chris Hogan, WR, New England Patriots

It feels weird to continue to chase so many players with excellent Week 3s, but the blitz matchups call for several encore performances. I expect Hogan to be one of them. Hogan is near the top of the Patriots’ receiving corps in blitz-target percentage so far this season, but if you stretch it back to last season, then Hogan’s 38.3 percent blitz-target rate is nearly double that of the other wide receivers on their roster (Rob Gronkowski is closer to him). Add that tendency to the fact that Hogan should draw a lot of coverage from Daryl Worley, who is the weakest link in the Panthers’ coverage team, and I predict Hogan scores his fourth touchdown in three games.
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davearm said:
Indeed.

Last year Julio Jones had games of 16, 29, 29, and 35 yards, all with 0 TDs.  Odell had 23, 49, 46, 44 also all with 0 TDs.  That's 1/4 duds, for 2 of the top 3 WRs.
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Well, the difference is that when Julio or Odell have a stinker you just shrug and move on. You don't spend 2 days beating yourself up for starting them over Garcon or Ted Ginn or whoever blew up on your bench.

 
heckmanm said:
Well, the difference is that when Julio or Odell have a stinker you just shrug and move on. You don't spend 2 days beating yourself up for starting them over Garcon or Ted Ginn or whoever blew up on your bench.
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Yup.  Forget the name.  Look at the numbers

 
Another solid game by Hogan. He's starting to look like the clear #2 target for Brady while Edelman is out.  Slight bump in targets this week from his 6/game we've seen the first 3 weeks.  

Chris Hogan caught 5-of-9 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown in the Patriots' Week 4 loss to the Panthers.

One of Hogan's missed connections was a goal-line drop, but he still managed to score his fourth touchdown in as many games. Hogan has gone at least 4/60 in each of his past three contests, (narrowly) establishing himself as Tom Brady's No. 2 over Danny Amendola. Being used in a variety of ways, Hogan will be an upside WR3 for Week 5 against the Bucs. Oct 1 - 5:18 PM

 
timbrah_ho said:
I wish Amendola would go away but otherwise he's a boom/bust WR2 in my book 
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I used to think that the presence of Amendola would naturally take away form Hogan's targets/usage, especially because Amendola is a naturally better slot receiver.

But Hogan got his at the same time as Amendola did this week. This is one data point, so we will see if this is a trend that continues, but Amendola's presence certainly didn't hamper Hogan's usage or performance this past game.

As long as the NE D is so horrendous, there may indeed be enough to go around for both Hogan and Amendola.

 
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