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Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

Player Page Link: Chris Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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I think a lot will depend on whether they add a decent veteran QB or go with Locker. With solid QB play to keep defenses honest, I see a nice year for CJ.

Maybe halfway between his huge 2009 and solid 2010. That would put him around 1650 rushing, 48 catches for 350 and 14 TDs.

Definitely a guy I'll try to target in the top 5. We don't know the exact FA rules, but I believe he's playing for a new contract which always helps.

 
The guy had 1500+ yards and double digit TDs last year even with the craptacular performances that the Titans received from all of their QBs. I don't know how Locker, if he were started from jumpstreet, could make it much worse for him than he had it a year ago. He pretty consistently saw 8 man fronts and still managed to finish as a top six runner in all of my leagues.

300-320 carries, 1380-1500 yards rushing, 40-50 catches for 320-400 yards. 12-15 total TDs.

If the Titans get anything resembling decent quarterback play, from whomever, I think he's almost a lock for 1,800 total yards, and could inch up a bit from that, while hitting the higher side of the TD projection. If they get catastrophic QB play as they did in '10...he's probably still a 1,500-1,600 total yards player with double digit scores.

 
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Chris Johnson has posted some awesome stats and is a rare blend of speed and shiftiness at the running back position. In addition, he has been relatively injury free for this first three seasons. His career stats:

08 - 15 gms 251 runs 1228 yds 4.9 ypc 62 targets 43 catches 69.4% 260 yds 6.05 ypc 10 TDs

09 - 16 gms 358 runs 2006 yds 5.6 ypc 71 targets 50 catches 70.4% 503 yds 10.06 ypc 16 TDs

10 - 16 gms 316 runs 1364 yds 4.3 ypc 56 targets 44 catches 78.6% 245 yds 5.56 ypc 12 TDs

It seems that folks glossed over his reduction in yards per carry a year ago, primarily because he still finished as RB 5 in non-ppr scoring and likely higher in ppr with 44 catches. I looked a little closer at just the split in the 2010 stats between first half of the season and the second half. Those numbers are provided below:

10 1st half - 8 gms 178 runs 22.3 per game 721 yds 4.05 ypc 28 targets 22 catches 78.6% 90 yds 4.09 ypc 8 TDs

10 2nd half - 8 gms 128 runs 16.0 per game 643 yds 5.02 ypc 28 targets 22 catches 78.6% 155 yds 7.05 ypc 4 TDs

These numbers reveal a marked decrease in the number of rushes, but a much more effective running back for the Titans in every category except TDs. There have been a couple of articles this off-season that the Titans Coaching staff would prefer to decrease Johnson's load and the split numbers above seem to provide a reasonable indication that might help improve his efficiency. In the long run, this will help CJ and the Titans, but it is probably not what fantasy owners want to hear.

I think that a reduction in work more in line with double his second half of 2010 is a reasonable projection. I also realize that the Titans of 2010 seemed somewhat adrift and even though I do not like Locker's prospects for 2011, I can't imagine that their offense would be that much worse than a year ago even with a rookie QB leading the way.

Chris Johnson 16 gms 260 carries 1300 yds 5.0 ypc 60 targets 45 catches 75.0% 315 yds 7.0 ypc and 12 total TDs

 
Huge Chris Johnson pimp as everyone knows.

Last year though the QB play killed him in the vital weeks when his owners really needed big games from him.

If Locker can be just average I see a better overall season for 2011

1400 yards rushing 12 TD's 55 receptions 475 yards 3 TD's

 
Huge Chris Johnson pimp as everyone knows.

Last year though the QB play killed him in the vital weeks when his owners really needed big games from him.

If Locker can be just average I see a better overall season for 2011

1400 yards rushing 12 TD's 55 receptions 475 yards 3 TD's
QB play was mediocre, but definitely not his biggest issues.Titans' OL was one of the wost run blocking units in the league last year, and may have the worst interior run-blocking line in the league (Harris, Amano, Scott). Unfortunately, they will all be back (though Harris and Amano did struggle with injury last year).

Worse than that though, the Titans play-calling was HORRIFICALLY, STUPENDOUSLY awful last year. As I noted to some friends around mid-season last year, the variety of ways the Titans got him the ball in '09 all but disappeared...watching him, it felt like 90%+ of his runs were off-center/guard, with almost no off-tackle, sweep or toss action. It was like Heimerdinger spent all offseason watching CJ2K breaking through the line, making the saftey miss, and taking the ball 80 yards for a TD, and decided that should be the ONLY thing CJ should do. CJ is probably the fastest RB in the league, but they never tried to get him on the edge to pick up 5, 6, 7 yards on a toss or sweep like they did in '09. Consequently, with teams stacking the middle of the line, and the Titans' interior run blocking being poor, he was repeatedly stuffed and looked to wear down through games as he was getting hit and driven down on almost all of his carries instead of getting out of bounds.

Anyways, thats just this Titans' fan's opinion. Always have been a Heimerdinger fan, but grew so frustrated with him last year that I was glad to see him go, even if it was for Chris Palmer.

It appears their plan is to bring back Kerry and start him for at least half the year, with Locker coming in at some point. Probably a 4-6 win team that will play from behind as much as it did this past year.

I'm hesitant to project 16 games out of him...I'd be surprised if many (if any) RBs have more regular season touches than he has had over the past 2 years.

But, projecting for a full 16 games, I'd say 300 carries, 1350 yards, 9 TDs, 40 catches, 320 yards, 2 TDs.

 
All depends on who is QBing the Titans. If they go with Locker right away, you can guarantee that teams will stack 8-9 in the box. If they get a decent veteran QB in the interim, Johnson should have another solid year.

Assuming Locker isn't the starting QB next year

300 car, 1375 yds, 10 TD

55 rec, 450 yds, 2 TD

 
Huge Chris Johnson pimp as everyone knows.

Last year though the QB play killed him in the vital weeks when his owners really needed big games from him.

If Locker can be just average I see a better overall season for 2011

1400 yards rushing 12 TD's 55 receptions 475 yards 3 TD's
QB play was mediocre, but definitely not his biggest issues.Titans' OL was one of the wost run blocking units in the league last year, and may have the worst interior run-blocking line in the league (Harris, Amano, Scott). Unfortunately, they will all be back (though Harris and Amano did struggle with injury last year).

Worse than that though, the Titans play-calling was HORRIFICALLY, STUPENDOUSLY awful last year. As I noted to some friends around mid-season last year, the variety of ways the Titans got him the ball in '09 all but disappeared...watching him, it felt like 90%+ of his runs were off-center/guard, with almost no off-tackle, sweep or toss action. It was like Heimerdinger spent all offseason watching CJ2K breaking through the line, making the saftey miss, and taking the ball 80 yards for a TD, and decided that should be the ONLY thing CJ should do. CJ is probably the fastest RB in the league, but they never tried to get him on the edge to pick up 5, 6, 7 yards on a toss or sweep like they did in '09. Consequently, with teams stacking the middle of the line, and the Titans' interior run blocking being poor, he was repeatedly stuffed and looked to wear down through games as he was getting hit and driven down on almost all of his carries instead of getting out of bounds.

Anyways, thats just this Titans' fan's opinion. Always have been a Heimerdinger fan, but grew so frustrated with him last year that I was glad to see him go, even if it was for Chris Palmer.

It appears their plan is to bring back Kerry and start him for at least half the year, with Locker coming in at some point. Probably a 4-6 win team that will play from behind as much as it did this past year.

I'm hesitant to project 16 games out of him...I'd be surprised if many (if any) RBs have more regular season touches than he has had over the past 2 years.

But, projecting for a full 16 games, I'd say 300 carries, 1350 yards, 9 TDs, 40 catches, 320 yards, 2 TDs.
:goodposting:

The play calling was horrific I agree. They never got him out in space. Plus Collins does not check down often. Although one Monday (or was it Sunday night) game he must have checked down 6-7 times in one drive to CJ3. But he normally never looks to the flats.

 
At this point alot of unknowns on the offensive side of the ball in Tennessee:

-new coach, Mike Munchak

-rookie 1st round QB, Jake Locker

-Top WR Kenny Britt could be suspended

-Vince Young likely gone, will the Titans bring in a QB (McNabb/Hassselbeck) or stick with Kerry Collins?

-Will CJ hold out, how will it effect team chemistry?

Suprisingly all of this doesn't seem to have hurt Chris Johnson's ADP.

 
I don't like the load he has taken over the past few years and the lack of help around him will only hurt his chances to perform. I don't think he tops 1400 total yards and 9 touchdowns.

He can be shut down - Look at weeks 2, 4, 7, and 12 last year. I think more teams will take a peak at what happened those weeks and prepare accordingly. With that being said, I'd like him as my RB #2, but not at his current ADP.

 
As long as he's healthy, he's a hold serve pick in the top five with upside to end up as the top FF RB in all formats. Sure, I there are some question marks, but they are quibbles since Johnson has been faced with many of the same issues since he got into the league.

 
So Kerry Collins is retiring, thank God!!

I've held CJ a couple years, and last year I was ready to drive to Nashville and strangle Hiemerdingbat! What an idiot! With all his many years of varied experience, he looked like he was calling plays from a cocktail napkin consisting of 3 moistened blurry scribbles.

So, a fresh start, but...

Holdout is a major concern! And even if he signs w/out too much lost time, the track record for speedsters who hold out is not good folks, NOT, GOOD!

Rookie QB would put an every down stack the box defense he'll have to deal with. Now could Locker break that with his athleticism, ok sure, but I'd expect the 1st half, at least, of the season to be overall dissappointment as they find their way with the rookie.

Stop gap veteran QB would help a ton! If it's Hass, who is a little familiar with the system, then I think CJ could at minimum duplicate last years #s, perhaps better them. If it's McNabb, the dumpoff specialist, PPR owners should be salivating! Anyway, a vet QB is best case scenario in my opinion, but we're still looking at a new HC, OC, and Offensive staffers, new QB, and a still suspect OLine. I'm predicting fewer carries, better average, more receptions and TDs.

280 carries, 1350 yards, ~4.8 avg, 12 TDs, 55 recp - 350 yards, 3 TDs

I'm holding...and hopeful.

 
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Go check CJ's career splits with and without Vince Young.

With = superhuman, hands down #1 pick

Without = merely good, not top 5 value

Not sure why the dynamic difference but I'll hold off projecting his 2011 season until I see who's under center.

 
Go check CJ's career splits with and without Vince Young. With = superhuman, hands down #1 pickWithout = merely good, not top 5 valueNot sure why the dynamic difference but I'll hold off projecting his 2011 season until I see who's under center.
I'm actually hoping for McNabb :bag:
 
'scrumptrulescent said:
280 carries, 1092 rushing, 50 receptions, 300 yards receiving, 10 total TD's.
Wow, under 4 YPC. What makes you think that he is going to dip over a full yard below his career YPC (yes I know, not a long career sample). Every defense in their division finished in the bottom 10 in ppg against RBs and so far not much has been done make me think they would do much better. That and the fact that CJ finished trending up at the end of last season makes me think that he has a strong chance of finishing RB1. Combine that with his lay off sched of IND and JAC and I'd be seriously considering taking this guy at #1 overall. May not finish #1, but no reason to suggest he could blow your season.
 
'scrumptrulescent said:
280 carries, 1092 rushing, 50 receptions, 300 yards receiving, 10 total TD's.
Wow, under 4 YPC. What makes you think that he is going to dip over a full yard below his career YPC (yes I know, not a long career sample). Every defense in their division finished in the bottom 10 in ppg against RBs and so far not much has been done make me think they would do much better. That and the fact that CJ finished trending up at the end of last season makes me think that he has a strong chance of finishing RB1. Combine that with his lay off sched of IND and JAC and I'd be seriously considering taking this guy at #1 overall. May not finish #1, but no reason to suggest he could blow your season.
So many strikes against him I think. I know he's been explosive in the past but he did drop over a full yard per carry from 2009 to 2010. And 4.3 ypc to 3.9 ypc isn't that big of a drop. He's 5'11" and 195 pounds sopping wet. He's been his whole team the last 2 1/2 years so the pressure and the wear would have to get to him at some point, not to mention the fact that he knows he's not even making 7 figures this year. Lots of wear and tear on a small guy who could be lacking in the motivation department if the team doesn't show they are committed to him. New coaches, new QB, I just think he could be a letdown.
 
'scrumptrulescent said:
280 carries, 1092 rushing, 50 receptions, 300 yards receiving, 10 total TD's.
Wow, under 4 YPC. What makes you think that he is going to dip over a full yard below his career YPC (yes I know, not a long career sample). Every defense in their division finished in the bottom 10 in ppg against RBs and so far not much has been done make me think they would do much better. That and the fact that CJ finished trending up at the end of last season makes me think that he has a strong chance of finishing RB1. Combine that with his lay off sched of IND and JAC and I'd be seriously considering taking this guy at #1 overall. May not finish #1, but no reason to suggest he could blow your season.
So many strikes against him I think. I know he's been explosive in the past but he did drop over a full yard per carry from 2009 to 2010. And 4.3 ypc to 3.9 ypc isn't that big of a drop. He's 5'11" and 195 pounds sopping wet. He's been his whole team the last 2 1/2 years so the pressure and the wear would have to get to him at some point, not to mention the fact that he knows he's not even making 7 figures this year. Lots of wear and tear on a small guy who could be lacking in the motivation department if the team doesn't show they are committed to him. New coaches, new QB, I just think he could be a letdown.
Hasn't this generally been a + factor in the past. He knows that if he wants that mega-deal, he's going to have to put in the work and make it happen this season. HUGE motivational factor, not a negative in my opinion...
 
'scrumptrulescent said:
280 carries, 1092 rushing, 50 receptions, 300 yards receiving, 10 total TD's.
Wow, under 4 YPC. What makes you think that he is going to dip over a full yard below his career YPC (yes I know, not a long career sample). Every defense in their division finished in the bottom 10 in ppg against RBs and so far not much has been done make me think they would do much better. That and the fact that CJ finished trending up at the end of last season makes me think that he has a strong chance of finishing RB1. Combine that with his lay off sched of IND and JAC and I'd be seriously considering taking this guy at #1 overall. May not finish #1, but no reason to suggest he could blow your season.
So many strikes against him I think. I know he's been explosive in the past but he did drop over a full yard per carry from 2009 to 2010. And 4.3 ypc to 3.9 ypc isn't that big of a drop. He's 5'11" and 195 pounds sopping wet. He's been his whole team the last 2 1/2 years so the pressure and the wear would have to get to him at some point, not to mention the fact that he knows he's not even making 7 figures this year. Lots of wear and tear on a small guy who could be lacking in the motivation department if the team doesn't show they are committed to him. New coaches, new QB, I just think he could be a letdown.
Hasn't this generally been a + factor in the past. He knows that if he wants that mega-deal, he's going to have to put in the work and make it happen this season. HUGE motivational factor, not a negative in my opinion...
I think it isn't a motivator in this case because he is so grossly underpaid for what he does.
Rotoworld - Pro Football Talk has confirmed that a contract showdown "is looming" between the Titans and Chris Johnson.The Tennesseean's Jim Wyatt and NFL.com's Jason La Canfora both reported as much last month, so there is definitely enough smoke here to expect fire. Johnson's desire for a "history" deal is well known, but it remains to be seen if the Titans, who possess a good deal of leverage in the situation, will be willing to play ball.
 

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