Chris Wesseling Dynasty Ranks: Running Backs (1 Viewer)

[Fear & Loathing]

Wasnt he actually at his best when he was the featured back, as opposed to splitting carries. I dont have the numbers, but if i recall, the more touches he got, the better his production.

He's at his best when they pass him the ball or get him the ball in space.Many of us thought he couldn't hold up to "the more touches he got," and he certainly couldn't in 2009 . . . be it health, production, or fumbling.

 

[coolnerd]

I will post the link to the audio in the Texans thread, but Slaton did have the surgery. Kubiak admited this on an interview with a Denver radio station.

Thanks for the link, coolnerd. As I'm sure you know, the local papers haven't reported anything on Slaton's surgery.

Don't get me started on the poor coverage the Texans get because there is single newspaper in one of the largest cities in the country.

Here you go, coolnerd. Informative article on Steve Slaton's surgery from nfl.fanhouse.com.

Rotoworld's take after reading the Houston Chronicle's buried update from early Feb:

Steve Slaton will avoid contact until training camp after undergoing a "discectomy" in mid-January, designed to relieve pressure on the nerve root that caused pressure in his spine.

Per NFLFanhouse.com, Slaton is calling the procedure a "cervical fusion." Although the surgery went well, Slaton's recovery is expected to take four-to-six months. Arian Foster enters the offseason as the No. 1 back, and the Texans are fully expected to target a running back early in the draft. Even if Slaton recovers by training camp, he's a longshot for the starting job.

Yeah, I have bust posting more general stuff the last couple of days I forgot to post his chat notes about the surgery.In fact, on one Texans message board, a medical doctor thinks that 4-6 months is optimistic given what he knows about the procedure and recovery in "regular" people. He admits the obvious ( he did not perform the surgery on Slaton nor knows what specific type of rehab), but it is far from a guarantee that even with surgery, Slaton comes back to normal.

 

[az_prof]

Seems like the NFL draft will tell us something about Slaton and his future. If his injury is that serious then I would expect them to use a first day pick on a back.

 

[mdlane]

Wasnt he actually at his best when he was the featured back, as opposed to splitting carries. I dont have the numbers, but if i recall, the more touches he got, the better his production.

He's at his best when they pass him the ball or get him the ball in space.Many of us thought he couldn't hold up to "the more touches he got," and he certainly couldn't in 2009 . . . be it health, production, or fumbling.

If that was your take pre-2009 season (you seem to be describing a slower Reggie Bush), why did Rotoworld rank Slaton #7 overall (ahead of Frank Gore among others)? And it wasn't as though Rotoworld's blurb attributed the ranking entirely to his situation, either.Are you engaging in some hindsight evaluation now post-2009 season, or were you in over-ruled disagreement with Rotoworld's bullishness on Slaton? Because Slaton pretty much was a Rotoworld guy.

 

[SSOG]

If that was your take pre-2009 season (you seem to be describing a slower Reggie Bush), why did Rotoworld rank Slaton #7 overall (ahead of Frank Gore among others)? And it wasn't as though Rotoworld's blurb attributed the ranking entirely to his situation, either.

Are you engaging in some hindsight evaluation now post-2009 season, or were you in over-ruled disagreement with Rotoworld's bullishness on Slaton? Because Slaton pretty much was a Rotoworld guy.

F&L had Steve Slaton ranked as the #19 Dynasty RB in his April 24th dynasty rankings (available here), with a value score of 60. He took so much flak for that from so many people over the summer that he let Slaton creep up a little bit in his rankings in case they really saw something that he didn't, but even then, in his final rankings before the season started (September 9th, available here), Slaton was still only RB14 with a value score of 70. It's not revisionist history- F&L has always been way down on Slaton.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

If that was your take pre-2009 season (you seem to be describing a slower Reggie Bush), why did Rotoworld rank Slaton #7 overall (ahead of Frank Gore among others)? And it wasn't as though Rotoworld's blurb attributed the ranking entirely to his situation, either.

Are you engaging in some hindsight evaluation now post-2009 season, or were you in over-ruled disagreement with Rotoworld's bullishness on Slaton? Because Slaton pretty much was a Rotoworld guy.

F&L had Steve Slaton ranked as the #19 Dynasty RB in his April 24th dynasty rankings (available here), with a value score of 60. He took so much flak for that from so many people over the summer that he let Slaton creep up a little bit in his rankings in case they really saw something that he didn't, but even then, in his final rankings before the season started (September 9th, available here), Slaton was still only RB14 with a value score of 70. It's not revisionist history- F&L has always been way down on Slaton.

Thanks, SSOG. I seriously doubt there was a louder doubter of Steve Slaton throughout his second-half run as a rookie and into the offseason. I took as much flak for my anti-Slaton stance as any other ranking I've done.I had a major beef with Rotoworld's #7 ranking. That was the one ranking I disagreed with the most vehemently. The year before, it was Chris Johnson's ranking as a rookie (way too much LenDale love).

But Rotoworld's Draft Guide rankings don't work the way you think they do. It's usually one guy taking on the rankings project as opposed to all of us pitching in our two cents on a player. For the most part, Gregg, Evan, and I agree on player values. Once in a while, we don't. And, honestly, I have nothing but respect for their opinions on player values. They're very good at what they do. Even if I loathed Slaton as a Dynasty asset, there were arguments to be made that he would be fine for another year in redraft. At some point, you just have to bite your lip and know your role.

Also, re: whether Slaton was a "Rotoworld guy." I don't know about that. I'll conceded that the high ranking goes a long way, but our blurbs had been consistently negative on him for a long time (Evan Silva was never a believer in long-term value for him either). I advised selling him in my Top-15 Dynasty Sells article last offseason, and I ripped him in more than one blog post on Pancake Blocks throughout the offseason. He was also the object of my derision on Season Pass Dynasty articles in 2008 and 2009, and I even ranked him incredibly low during his late-season run in our Top-200 Going Forward feature in Season Pass. In radio spots I did over the summer, he and Matt Forte were the two guys I always advised against drafting early in the first round.

I understand how it can seem that Slaton was a Rotoworld guy based on that #7 ranking. And I also understand that you could probably expect a little more consistency of opinion. But sometimes that's just not how it works.

 

[mdlane]

If that was your take pre-2009 season (you seem to be describing a slower Reggie Bush), why did Rotoworld rank Slaton #7 overall (ahead of Frank Gore among others)? And it wasn't as though Rotoworld's blurb attributed the ranking entirely to his situation, either.

Are you engaging in some hindsight evaluation now post-2009 season, or were you in over-ruled disagreement with Rotoworld's bullishness on Slaton? Because Slaton pretty much was a Rotoworld guy.

F&L had Steve Slaton ranked as the #19 Dynasty RB in his April 24th dynasty rankings (available here), with a value score of 60. He took so much flak for that from so many people over the summer that he let Slaton creep up a little bit in his rankings in case they really saw something that he didn't, but even then, in his final rankings before the season started (September 9th, available here), Slaton was still only RB14 with a value score of 70. It's not revisionist history- F&L has always been way down on Slaton.

Thanks, SSOG. I seriously doubt there was a louder doubter of Steve Slaton throughout his second-half run as a rookie and into the offseason. I took as much flak for my anti-Slaton stance as any other ranking I've done.I had a major beef with Rotoworld's #7 ranking. That was the one ranking I disagreed with the most vehemently. The year before, it was Chris Johnson's ranking as a rookie (way too much LenDale love).

But Rotoworld's Draft Guide rankings don't work the way you think they do. It's usually one guy taking on the rankings project as opposed to all of us pitching in our two cents on a player. For the most part, Gregg, Evan, and I agree on player values. Once in a while, we don't. And, honestly, I have nothing but respect for their opinions on player values. They're very good at what they do. Even if I loathed Slaton as a Dynasty asset, there were arguments to be made that he would be fine for another year in redraft. At some point, you just have to bite your lip and know your role.

Also, re: whether Slaton was a "Rotoworld guy." I don't know about that. I'll conceded that the high ranking goes a long way, but our blurbs had been consistently negative on him for a long time (Evan Silva was never a believer in long-term value for him either). I advised selling him in my Top-15 Dynasty Sells article last offseason, and I ripped him in more than one blog post on Pancake Blocks throughout the offseason. He was also the object of my derision on Season Pass Dynasty articles in 2008 and 2009, and I even ranked him incredibly low during his late-season run in our Top-200 Going Forward feature in Season Pass. In radio spots I did over the summer, he and Matt Forte were the two guys I always advised against drafting early in the first round.

I understand how it can seem that Slaton was a Rotoworld guy based on that #7 ranking. And I also understand that you could probably expect a little more consistency of opinion. But sometimes that's just not how it works.

Thanks for the informative explanation. One cool feature you could add for next year, especially your mag, would be a section where the guys not doing the rankings can list 3 or so guys they vehemently disagree with with explanations for that disagreement. You're right that the information is there if you look hard enough, but the rankings blurbs are fairly supportive of the ranking with relatively lightweight counterpoints. The result is that your out of the box thinking gets obscured. For example, I have a feeling your bullishness on Jamaal Charles is not going to come through.FWIW.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Thanks for the informative explanation. One cool feature you could add for next year, especially your mag, would be a section where the guys not doing the rankings can list 3 or so guys they vehemently disagree with with explanations for that disagreement. You're right that the information is there if you look hard enough, but the rankings blurbs are fairly supportive of the ranking with relatively lightweight counterpoints. The result is that your out of the box thinking gets obscured. For example, I have a feeling your bullishness on Jamaal Charles is not going to come through.FWIW.

Those are good suggestions. I especially like the one for the mag debating a few players.The reality for much of this, though, is that Rotoworld isn't as big of an operation on the football side as commonly believed. Most of our work time is tied up in the news page, so we're somewhat limited on collaborative efforts for the mag, draft guide, etc.

 

[Rodeojones]

Chris also had Slaton #4 in his top 15 sell list that was posted Feb 13th 2009.

4. Steve Slaton, RB, Texans – This one is sure to cause plenty of controversy, but so did last year's top sell – Willie Parker. Let's look at the big picture: whenever a rookie running back posts interesting stats, he's immediately hailed as a young nucleus player for Dynasty leaguers. Slaton is being valued as a Top-10 back in many circles, but his future simply isn't that stable. It doesn't take a unique talent to beat out Chris Taylor and an injured Ahman Green for the starting job, but it does take a unique talent to establish oneself as a long-term, nucleus player in Dynasty leagues.

Slaton's value is headed toward Willie Parker territory once the Texans pair a big back with him to siphon off short-yardage work and steal touchdowns. A good rule of thumb of Dynasty traders is to hang on to the elite, nucleus players and trade the rest while they are overvalued. Slaton is not an elite, nucleus player.

Link

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

So based on this ranking, who does everybody view as the three candidates most likely to make "The Leap"? In other words, guys ranked outside the top 10 who have the best shot to move into the Top 10 or close to it by this time next season?

The three that jump out to me the most are:

Beanie Wells (11th) - yes, he's barely outside the top 10, but I loved the way he ran at the end of the season. Hightower is a nuisance for sure and he isn't going away, but watching the games I never felt that he did anything particularly better than Beanie, and that includes Hightower's main "strengths" of receiving and short yardage. Fumbles are a concern, but Hightower put it on the ground quite a bit himself. Leinart should help balance AZ's pass/run ratio, but defenses can't completely sell out against the run with Fitz, Boldin (assuming he stays), Breaston and now Early Doucet still on the field. If the O-Line improves in run blocking even a little, Beanie keeps getting better with blitz pickup, and if Hightower settles into a Chester Taylor-type role which I feel is his destiny with AZ, Beanie has the talent to at least be top 10, maybe top 5 or 6.

Shonn Greene (18th) - He really looked fantastic in the playoffs. Thomas Jones is 31, and assuming Leon Washington comes back, I can see Greene emerging in the TJ role with Leon continuing as the COP. NY Jets O-Line is one of the best in the league, and Sanchez should keep defenses a little more honest in year 2. Definite upside from #18 here.

Ahmad Bradshaw (29th) - Bradshaw breaking into the top 10 is a stretch, but he's been impressive in his limited work the last three years. I think he absolutely has the skills to be the RB1 on the Giants, flipping the script on Jacobs, who can become the change of pace "Thunder" like in the Tiki days, which would also preserve Jacobs' health. Bradshaw owners always have to worry about TDs getting vultured, but Bradshaw ran better at the goal line than Jacobs last year, so he does have a nose for the endzone. The keys for Bradshaw are whether he can handle an increased workload and stay healthy, and whether the Giants can improve in the offseason, particularly on defense. If so, #29 is a bargain IMO.

 

[gonzobill5]

So based on this ranking, who does everybody view as the three candidates most likely to make "The Leap"? In other words, guys ranked outside the top 10 who have the best shot to move into the Top 10 or close to it by this time next season?The three that jump out to me the most are:Beanie Wells (11th) - yes, he's barely outside the top 10, but I loved the way he ran at the end of the season. Hightower is a nuisance for sure and he isn't going away, but watching the games I never felt that he did anything particularly better than Beanie, and that includes Hightower's main "strengths" of receiving and short yardage. Fumbles are a concern, but Hightower put it on the ground quite a bit himself. Leinart should help balance AZ's pass/run ratio, but defenses can't completely sell out against the run with Fitz, Boldin (assuming he stays), Breaston and now Early Doucet still on the field. If the O-Line improves in run blocking even a little, Beanie keeps getting better with blitz pickup, and if Hightower settles into a Chester Taylor-type role which I feel is his destiny with AZ, Beanie has the talent to at least be top 10, maybe top 5 or 6.Shonn Greene (18th) - He really looked fantastic in the playoffs. Thomas Jones is 31, and assuming Leon Washington comes back, I can see Greene emerging in the TJ role with Leon continuing as the COP. NY Jets O-Line is one of the best in the league, and Sanchez should keep defenses a little more honest in year 2. Definite upside from #18 here.Ahmad Bradshaw (29th) - Bradshaw breaking into the top 10 is a stretch, but he's been impressive in his limited work the last three years. I think he absolutely has the skills to be the RB1 on the Giants, flipping the script on Jacobs, who can become the change of pace "Thunder" like in the Tiki days, which would also preserve Jacobs' health. Bradshaw owners always have to worry about TDs getting vultured, but Bradshaw ran better at the goal line than Jacobs last year, so he does have a nose for the endzone. The keys for Bradshaw are whether he can handle an increased workload and stay healthy, and whether the Giants can improve in the offseason, particularly on defense. If so, #29 is a bargain IMO.

I think you nailed it. McCoy is another guy I'll toss out there. He hasn't sold me yet but he really outperformed my expectations in year 1. Depending on what happens with Weaver, I think we could see him with about 1500 total yards in year 2 in this offense, particularly if those Eagles WRs keep stretching the field & he starts making more plays in space.ETA: and the only player on this list that is younger than McCoy is Beanie.

 

[SSOG]

So based on this ranking, who does everybody view as the three candidates most likely to make "The Leap"? In other words, guys ranked outside the top 10 who have the best shot to move into the Top 10 or close to it by this time next season?The three that jump out to me the most are:Beanie Wells (11th) - yes, he's barely outside the top 10, but I loved the way he ran at the end of the season. Hightower is a nuisance for sure and he isn't going away, but watching the games I never felt that he did anything particularly better than Beanie, and that includes Hightower's main "strengths" of receiving and short yardage. Fumbles are a concern, but Hightower put it on the ground quite a bit himself. Leinart should help balance AZ's pass/run ratio, but defenses can't completely sell out against the run with Fitz, Boldin (assuming he stays), Breaston and now Early Doucet still on the field. If the O-Line improves in run blocking even a little, Beanie keeps getting better with blitz pickup, and if Hightower settles into a Chester Taylor-type role which I feel is his destiny with AZ, Beanie has the talent to at least be top 10, maybe top 5 or 6.Shonn Greene (18th) - He really looked fantastic in the playoffs. Thomas Jones is 31, and assuming Leon Washington comes back, I can see Greene emerging in the TJ role with Leon continuing as the COP. NY Jets O-Line is one of the best in the league, and Sanchez should keep defenses a little more honest in year 2. Definite upside from #18 here.Ahmad Bradshaw (29th) - Bradshaw breaking into the top 10 is a stretch, but he's been impressive in his limited work the last three years. I think he absolutely has the skills to be the RB1 on the Giants, flipping the script on Jacobs, who can become the change of pace "Thunder" like in the Tiki days, which would also preserve Jacobs' health. Bradshaw owners always have to worry about TDs getting vultured, but Bradshaw ran better at the goal line than Jacobs last year, so he does have a nose for the endzone. The keys for Bradshaw are whether he can handle an increased workload and stay healthy, and whether the Giants can improve in the offseason, particularly on defense. If so, #29 is a bargain IMO.

I think Ronnie Brown has the best chance of anyone of dramatically outperforming his current ranking next year, although I doubt he'll ever be a top-10 dynasty back because he's simply too old and has too much injury history. Outside of Brown, I think that Pierre Thomas is the kind of guy who could wind up being next year's Ray Rice- a guy who goes from barely on the radar to solidly in the top 5. It's a gamble, but a high-reward gamble. Marshawn Lynch is another guy who I could see taking a huge, huge jump next year. 24, 1st round pedigree, strong talent, history of production (two top-12 fantasy finishes in his first 3 seasons), and already written off as dead. We've seen far bigger resurrections from Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones, among others.

 

[inzanitee]

Ahmad Bradshaw (29th) - Bradshaw breaking into the top 10 is a stretch, but he's been impressive in his limited work the last three years. I think he absolutely has the skills to be the RB1 on the Giants, flipping the script on Jacobs, who can become the change of pace "Thunder" like in the Tiki days, which would also preserve Jacobs' health. Bradshaw owners always have to worry about TDs getting vultured, but Bradshaw ran better at the goal line than Jacobs last year, so he does have a nose for the endzone. The keys for Bradshaw are whether he can handle an increased workload and stay healthy, and whether the Giants can improve in the offseason, particularly on defense. If so, #29 is a bargain IMO.

Huge Bradshaw fan. Love the way he runs. I absolutely think he can carry the load. He's 5'9'', 200 pounds - that's not too small (Chris Johnson and Jamal Charles are the same weight and two inches taller). The question is whether the G-Men allow him to touch the ball enough. I do think he's a much more explosive player than than Jacobs, though Jacobs isn't going to disappear. If I'm going to bet on talent, then Bradshaw is a guy I would try and grab for cheap and hope he gets enough opportunities.

 

[BespokeJort]

Ahmad Bradshaw (29th) - Bradshaw breaking into the top 10 is a stretch, but he's been impressive in his limited work the last three years. I think he absolutely has the skills to be the RB1 on the Giants, flipping the script on Jacobs, who can become the change of pace "Thunder" like in the Tiki days, which would also preserve Jacobs' health. Bradshaw owners always have to worry about TDs getting vultured, but Bradshaw ran better at the goal line than Jacobs last year, so he does have a nose for the endzone. The keys for Bradshaw are whether he can handle an increased workload and stay healthy, and whether the Giants can improve in the offseason, particularly on defense. If so, #29 is a bargain IMO.

Huge Bradshaw fan. Love the way he runs. I absolutely think he can carry the load. He's 5'9'', 200 pounds - that's not too small (Chris Johnson and Jamal Charles are the same weight and two inches taller). The question is whether the G-Men allow him to touch the ball enough. I do think he's a much more explosive player than than Jacobs, though Jacobs isn't going to disappear. If I'm going to bet on talent, then Bradshaw is a guy I would try and grab for cheap and hope he gets enough opportunities.

I like Bradshaw, but I don't think Chris Johnson's ability to carry the load is transferable to him...CJ3's running style and ridiculous speed keep him from taking big shots. At times Bradshaw seems to think he's Marion Barber. The pounding he takes per carry is gonna be a lot higher.Charles is a little closer but still more of a speed/finesse rusher from what I understand (admittedly I've watched far less of him than either of the other two as he plays for the chiefs). Also we still haven't seen him hold up over a season...not to mention the separated shoulder angle in the half of one he did play. That doesn't mean he's injury prone--all backs get injured eventually--but I'd hesitate to point at him and assume his success means a little guy can hold up over time.

 

[Cleat Spike]

Here's something that anyone who owns Andre Brown or is thinking of trading for him should be aware of. Achilles rupture recovery is no sure bet by any means. Many players never return, and those who do usually never return to their former selves.

http://new-york-mets.groups.cbssports.com/...58/0/0/19666711

The biggest flaw in the study:

The average age of the players at the

time of injury was 29 (range 23 – 36), which is older

than the average age of all players in the NFL (26.5

years).

As we know, decline isn't unusual after age 30. Also, if you look at the graph, the players in the study were already in decline prior to the injury while the control group players were level. The injured players just continued the decline.The other funny thing was the 'scoring' of the players. Does this look familiar to anyone?

OPR = PassYd/20 + (RushYd + RecYd)/10 + PassTD × 4 + (RushTD + RecTD) × 6 – Int

Andre Brown is really a tough decision for dynasty teams heading into rookie drafts where you might have to make room for incoming picks. Even for an end of the bench stash if you have deeper rosters. He's in a pool of 4 other RBs (pretty good RBs at that), there's not much news on him at all, he's coming off a major injury, had spotty college production to begin with. If he does come back from the injury, he may not be worth a hold until about 2011-12 once he works through all the clutter and earns some PT. Are a lot of people holding him or sending him back out onto the FA wire as they look to make room in dynasty leagues?

 

[Crimson King]

What do people think of Donald Brown? Didn't do much as a rook and I didn't have much of a chance to see him play so I'm looking for other opinions. His situation is fantastic and I know most on these boards consider Addai mediocre. What do you see as his upside/downside? Could he perform like Mendenhall did this year (rough rookie season with many down on him) and take the job for himself?

 

[az_prof]

What do people think of Donald Brown? Didn't do much as a rook and I didn't have much of a chance to see him play so I'm looking for other opinions. His situation is fantastic and I know most on these boards consider Addai mediocre. What do you see as his upside/downside? Could he perform like Mendenhall did this year (rough rookie season with many down on him) and take the job for himself?

I saw him play and liked what I saw early on. He got hurt and then didn't play the same after missing time. I definitely like him better than Mendenhall myself and I don't think Addai will have that job beyond next year. That's my opinion based on my talent assessment of the two players; other people see it differently. However, I wouldn't trade for him thinking that 2010 will necessarily be a big year; it is more likely to be 2011.

 

[az_prof]

Here's something that anyone who owns Andre Brown or is thinking of trading for him should be aware of. Achilles rupture recovery is no sure bet by any means. Many players never return, and those who do usually never return to their former selves.

http://new-york-mets.groups.cbssports.com/...58/0/0/19666711

The biggest flaw in the study:

The average age of the players at the

time of injury was 29 (range 23 – 36), which is older

than the average age of all players in the NFL (26.5

years).

As we know, decline isn't unusual after age 30. Also, if you look at the graph, the players in the study were already in decline prior to the injury while the control group players were level. The injured players just continued the decline.The other funny thing was the 'scoring' of the players. Does this look familiar to anyone?

OPR = PassYd/20 + (RushYd + RecYd)/10 + PassTD × 4 + (RushTD + RecTD) × 6 – Int

Andre Brown is really a tough decision for dynasty teams heading into rookie drafts where you might have to make room for incoming picks. Even for an end of the bench stash if you have deeper rosters. He's in a pool of 4 other RBs (pretty good RBs at that), there's not much news on him at all, he's coming off a major injury, had spotty college production to begin with. If he does come back from the injury, he may not be worth a hold until about 2011-12 once he works through all the clutter and earns some PT. Are a lot of people holding him or sending him back out onto the FA wire as they look to make room in dynasty leagues?

He wasn't an elite pick to begin with and is recovering from an injury that usually takes more than a year to fully recover, so unless NY cuts or trades Jacobs or Bradshaw, I don't expect much in 2010 from Andre Brown.

 

[az_prof]

So based on this ranking, who does everybody view as the three candidates most likely to make "The Leap"? In other words, guys ranked outside the top 10 who have the best shot to move into the Top 10 or close to it by this time next season?The three that jump out to me the most are:Beanie Wells (11th) - yes, he's barely outside the top 10, but I loved the way he ran at the end of the season. Hightower is a nuisance for sure and he isn't going away, but watching the games I never felt that he did anything particularly better than Beanie, and that includes Hightower's main "strengths" of receiving and short yardage. Fumbles are a concern, but Hightower put it on the ground quite a bit himself. Leinart should help balance AZ's pass/run ratio, but defenses can't completely sell out against the run with Fitz, Boldin (assuming he stays), Breaston and now Early Doucet still on the field. If the O-Line improves in run blocking even a little, Beanie keeps getting better with blitz pickup, and if Hightower settles into a Chester Taylor-type role which I feel is his destiny with AZ, Beanie has the talent to at least be top 10, maybe top 5 or 6.Shonn Greene (18th) - He really looked fantastic in the playoffs. Thomas Jones is 31, and assuming Leon Washington comes back, I can see Greene emerging in the TJ role with Leon continuing as the COP. NY Jets O-Line is one of the best in the league, and Sanchez should keep defenses a little more honest in year 2. Definite upside from #18 here.Ahmad Bradshaw (29th) - Bradshaw breaking into the top 10 is a stretch, but he's been impressive in his limited work the last three years. I think he absolutely has the skills to be the RB1 on the Giants, flipping the script on Jacobs, who can become the change of pace "Thunder" like in the Tiki days, which would also preserve Jacobs' health. Bradshaw owners always have to worry about TDs getting vultured, but Bradshaw ran better at the goal line than Jacobs last year, so he does have a nose for the endzone. The keys for Bradshaw are whether he can handle an increased workload and stay healthy, and whether the Giants can improve in the offseason, particularly on defense. If so, #29 is a bargain IMO.

Beanie, Greene, and Bradshaw all seem like value picks to me because I agree that they could be top 10. I don't like McCoy as well and am not sold on him at all. Ronnie Brown is always a possibility but so is an injury. Hard to get excited by Lynch as he looks like an average back at best, has knucklehead issues, but most importantly we don't know where he will be playing so it is hard to project a guy like that at all.

 

[Go deep]

So based on this ranking, who does everybody view as the three candidates most likely to make "The Leap"? In other words, guys ranked outside the top 10 who have the best shot to move into the Top 10 or close to it by this time next season?The three that jump out to me the most are:Beanie Wells (11th) - yes, he's barely outside the top 10, but I loved the way he ran at the end of the season. Hightower is a nuisance for sure and he isn't going away, but watching the games I never felt that he did anything particularly better than Beanie, and that includes Hightower's main "strengths" of receiving and short yardage. Fumbles are a concern, but Hightower put it on the ground quite a bit himself. Leinart should help balance AZ's pass/run ratio, but defenses can't completely sell out against the run with Fitz, Boldin (assuming he stays), Breaston and now Early Doucet still on the field. If the O-Line improves in run blocking even a little, Beanie keeps getting better with blitz pickup, and if Hightower settles into a Chester Taylor-type role which I feel is his destiny with AZ, Beanie has the talent to at least be top 10, maybe top 5 or 6.Shonn Greene (18th) - He really looked fantastic in the playoffs. Thomas Jones is 31, and assuming Leon Washington comes back, I can see Greene emerging in the TJ role with Leon continuing as the COP. NY Jets O-Line is one of the best in the league, and Sanchez should keep defenses a little more honest in year 2. Definite upside from #18 here.Ahmad Bradshaw (29th) - Bradshaw breaking into the top 10 is a stretch, but he's been impressive in his limited work the last three years. I think he absolutely has the skills to be the RB1 on the Giants, flipping the script on Jacobs, who can become the change of pace "Thunder" like in the Tiki days, which would also preserve Jacobs' health. Bradshaw owners always have to worry about TDs getting vultured, but Bradshaw ran better at the goal line than Jacobs last year, so he does have a nose for the endzone. The keys for Bradshaw are whether he can handle an increased workload and stay healthy, and whether the Giants can improve in the offseason, particularly on defense. If so, #29 is a bargain IMO.

Beanie, Greene, and Bradshaw all seem like value picks to me because I agree that they could be top 10. I don't like McCoy as well and am not sold on him at all. Ronnie Brown is always a possibility but so is an injury. Hard to get excited by Lynch as he looks like an average back at best, has knucklehead issues, but most importantly we don't know where he will be playing so it is hard to project a guy like that at all.

Lynchs' talent isnt the problem, it is the team he plays for. Any team but the Bills would give his value quite a boost. Assuming of course he was the starter where he ends up.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

So based on this ranking, who does everybody view as the three candidates most likely to make "The Leap"? In other words, guys ranked outside the top 10 who have the best shot to move into the Top 10 or close to it by this time next season?The three that jump out to me the most are:Beanie Wells (11th) - yes, he's barely outside the top 10, but I loved the way he ran at the end of the season. Hightower is a nuisance for sure and he isn't going away, but watching the games I never felt that he did anything particularly better than Beanie, and that includes Hightower's main "strengths" of receiving and short yardage. Fumbles are a concern, but Hightower put it on the ground quite a bit himself. Leinart should help balance AZ's pass/run ratio, but defenses can't completely sell out against the run with Fitz, Boldin (assuming he stays), Breaston and now Early Doucet still on the field. If the O-Line improves in run blocking even a little, Beanie keeps getting better with blitz pickup, and if Hightower settles into a Chester Taylor-type role which I feel is his destiny with AZ, Beanie has the talent to at least be top 10, maybe top 5 or 6.Shonn Greene (18th) - He really looked fantastic in the playoffs. Thomas Jones is 31, and assuming Leon Washington comes back, I can see Greene emerging in the TJ role with Leon continuing as the COP. NY Jets O-Line is one of the best in the league, and Sanchez should keep defenses a little more honest in year 2. Definite upside from #18 here.Ahmad Bradshaw (29th) - Bradshaw breaking into the top 10 is a stretch, but he's been impressive in his limited work the last three years. I think he absolutely has the skills to be the RB1 on the Giants, flipping the script on Jacobs, who can become the change of pace "Thunder" like in the Tiki days, which would also preserve Jacobs' health. Bradshaw owners always have to worry about TDs getting vultured, but Bradshaw ran better at the goal line than Jacobs last year, so he does have a nose for the endzone. The keys for Bradshaw are whether he can handle an increased workload and stay healthy, and whether the Giants can improve in the offseason, particularly on defense. If so, #29 is a bargain IMO.

Beanie, Greene, and Bradshaw all seem like value picks to me because I agree that they could be top 10. I don't like McCoy as well and am not sold on him at all. Ronnie Brown is always a possibility but so is an injury. Hard to get excited by Lynch as he looks like an average back at best, has knucklehead issues, but most importantly we don't know where he will be playing so it is hard to project a guy like that at all.

Lynchs' talent isnt the problem, it is the team he plays for. Any team but the Bills would give his value quite a boost. Assuming of course he was the starter where he ends up.

He's not the starter on the Bills because he was beat out badly by Freddy Jackson. Jackson is not a special talent yet he made Lynch look like a clear backup. That doesn't give me much confidence in Lynch.

 

[Go deep]

So based on this ranking, who does everybody view as the three candidates most likely to make "The Leap"? In other words, guys ranked outside the top 10 who have the best shot to move into the Top 10 or close to it by this time next season?The three that jump out to me the most are:Beanie Wells (11th) - yes, he's barely outside the top 10, but I loved the way he ran at the end of the season. Hightower is a nuisance for sure and he isn't going away, but watching the games I never felt that he did anything particularly better than Beanie, and that includes Hightower's main "strengths" of receiving and short yardage. Fumbles are a concern, but Hightower put it on the ground quite a bit himself. Leinart should help balance AZ's pass/run ratio, but defenses can't completely sell out against the run with Fitz, Boldin (assuming he stays), Breaston and now Early Doucet still on the field. If the O-Line improves in run blocking even a little, Beanie keeps getting better with blitz pickup, and if Hightower settles into a Chester Taylor-type role which I feel is his destiny with AZ, Beanie has the talent to at least be top 10, maybe top 5 or 6.Shonn Greene (18th) - He really looked fantastic in the playoffs. Thomas Jones is 31, and assuming Leon Washington comes back, I can see Greene emerging in the TJ role with Leon continuing as the COP. NY Jets O-Line is one of the best in the league, and Sanchez should keep defenses a little more honest in year 2. Definite upside from #18 here.Ahmad Bradshaw (29th) - Bradshaw breaking into the top 10 is a stretch, but he's been impressive in his limited work the last three years. I think he absolutely has the skills to be the RB1 on the Giants, flipping the script on Jacobs, who can become the change of pace "Thunder" like in the Tiki days, which would also preserve Jacobs' health. Bradshaw owners always have to worry about TDs getting vultured, but Bradshaw ran better at the goal line than Jacobs last year, so he does have a nose for the endzone. The keys for Bradshaw are whether he can handle an increased workload and stay healthy, and whether the Giants can improve in the offseason, particularly on defense. If so, #29 is a bargain IMO.

Beanie, Greene, and Bradshaw all seem like value picks to me because I agree that they could be top 10. I don't like McCoy as well and am not sold on him at all. Ronnie Brown is always a possibility but so is an injury. Hard to get excited by Lynch as he looks like an average back at best, has knucklehead issues, but most importantly we don't know where he will be playing so it is hard to project a guy like that at all.

Lynchs' talent isnt the problem, it is the team he plays for. Any team but the Bills would give his value quite a boost. Assuming of course he was the starter where he ends up.

He's not the starter on the Bills because he was beat out badly by Freddy Jackson. Jackson is not a special talent yet he made Lynch look like a clear backup. That doesn't give me much confidence in Lynch.

He is not the starter for the Bills because of his off field issues. I believe Lynch will excel when he gets out of Buffalo. He had two 1000 yard season in his first two years behind a bad oline with no passing game to take some of the presssure off. I have never seen a RB get hit so many times in the backfield after receiving a handoff. Once he gets out of Buffalo and goes to a real football team, you will see how talented he truly is. Also, Jackson is a pretty good player. He had the 4th most combined yards in NFL history last year.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

So based on this ranking, who does everybody view as the three candidates most likely to make "The Leap"? In other words, guys ranked outside the top 10 who have the best shot to move into the Top 10 or close to it by this time next season?The three that jump out to me the most are:Beanie Wells (11th) - yes, he's barely outside the top 10, but I loved the way he ran at the end of the season. Hightower is a nuisance for sure and he isn't going away, but watching the games I never felt that he did anything particularly better than Beanie, and that includes Hightower's main "strengths" of receiving and short yardage. Fumbles are a concern, but Hightower put it on the ground quite a bit himself. Leinart should help balance AZ's pass/run ratio, but defenses can't completely sell out against the run with Fitz, Boldin (assuming he stays), Breaston and now Early Doucet still on the field. If the O-Line improves in run blocking even a little, Beanie keeps getting better with blitz pickup, and if Hightower settles into a Chester Taylor-type role which I feel is his destiny with AZ, Beanie has the talent to at least be top 10, maybe top 5 or 6.Shonn Greene (18th) - He really looked fantastic in the playoffs. Thomas Jones is 31, and assuming Leon Washington comes back, I can see Greene emerging in the TJ role with Leon continuing as the COP. NY Jets O-Line is one of the best in the league, and Sanchez should keep defenses a little more honest in year 2. Definite upside from #18 here.Ahmad Bradshaw (29th) - Bradshaw breaking into the top 10 is a stretch, but he's been impressive in his limited work the last three years. I think he absolutely has the skills to be the RB1 on the Giants, flipping the script on Jacobs, who can become the change of pace "Thunder" like in the Tiki days, which would also preserve Jacobs' health. Bradshaw owners always have to worry about TDs getting vultured, but Bradshaw ran better at the goal line than Jacobs last year, so he does have a nose for the endzone. The keys for Bradshaw are whether he can handle an increased workload and stay healthy, and whether the Giants can improve in the offseason, particularly on defense. If so, #29 is a bargain IMO.

Beanie, Greene, and Bradshaw all seem like value picks to me because I agree that they could be top 10. I don't like McCoy as well and am not sold on him at all. Ronnie Brown is always a possibility but so is an injury. Hard to get excited by Lynch as he looks like an average back at best, has knucklehead issues, but most importantly we don't know where he will be playing so it is hard to project a guy like that at all.

Lynchs' talent isnt the problem, it is the team he plays for. Any team but the Bills would give his value quite a boost. Assuming of course he was the starter where he ends up.

He's not the starter on the Bills because he was beat out badly by Freddy Jackson. Jackson is not a special talent yet he made Lynch look like a clear backup. That doesn't give me much confidence in Lynch.

He is not the starter for the Bills because of his off field issues. I believe Lynch will excel when he gets out of Buffalo. He had two 1000 yard season in his first two years behind a bad oline with no passing game to take some of the presssure off. I have never seen a RB get hit so many times in the backfield after receiving a handoff. Once he gets out of Buffalo and goes to a real football team, you will see how talented he truly is. Also, Jackson is a pretty good player. He had the 4th most combined yards in NFL history last year.

Now I think you're from the Buffalo area like I am, but are you a Lynch owner? Cause I don't own either Lynch or Jackson (usually stay away from Bills players). I used to be a believer in Lynch but then I saw Jackson totally outplay him (and it had nothing to do with his off field issues, he was simply outplayed). Jackson is the much better RB, he is 29 and not an incredible talent. You know as well as I do how long it took Jackson to even get a chance to be on an NFL team. What Jackson did this year was nice, but you know he's not a "special" player. If someone like Jackson can completely outplay Lynch then what does that say about Lynch's talent?Now maybe Lynch didn't or couldn't get up to speed after missing those games for being suspended, but either way, Jackson was the much better player. If Lynch does go somewhere else it will only be a matter of time before he gets a nice long suspension (again). Not sure if I want to invest in a player like that. I don't care if there's rumors he might go to San Diego. I'll let someone else overpay for him.

 

[jacobo_moses]

The truth of the matter is this. Lynch has worn out his welcome. He had the suspension at the beginning of the season. And the coaching regime never really gave Lynch back the reigns because F. Jackson was playing well enough that it didn't make sense to give the reigns back to Lynch. I mean the Bills had injuries galore. No conisistant QB play all season. Let's keep in mind Lynch finished as the no 12 RB in rookie year, and the no 15 RB in the 2nd year.

He needs to move to another team.