Ciatrick Fason will outscore Larry Johnson in Week 14 (1 Viewer)

[Lemmiwinks]

Why is anybody entertaining this guy's nonsense post?

He's not saying bench LJ - he's saying Fason might be as good a play.Not an unreasonable position or a nonsensical point of discussion.I think a lot of good info is in this thread.

Agreed. Fason could easily score 2 TD's this week if CT is out, which I think he will be.

wishful thinking.

Replace "Fason" with "Pinner" and I was dead accurate. Bottom line, I felt that whoever got the carries for Min had a great shot at 2 TD's. I just had no idea it would be Pinner. Give Fason all those carries, and he has 3 TD's as well

 

[One]

 

[Lemmiwinks]

If the title of this post was: "Artose Pinner will outscore Larry Johnson this week", would you still have come on here and called it "nonsense"? Of course you would have. Don't strain your neck patting yourself on the back, buddy. You were wrong, this post was not nonsense and the Min RB schooled LJ this week.

 

[One]

If the title of this post was: "Artose Pinner will outscore Larry Johnson this week", would you still have come on here and called it "nonsense"? Of course you would have. Don't strain your neck patting yourself on the back, buddy. You were wrong, this post was not nonsense and the Min RB schooled LJ this week.

I've yet to see a post say "Minny RB will outscore LJ."...but since your league allows you to "replace" then you're right.

 

[ready5]

If the title of this post was: "Artose Pinner will outscore Larry Johnson this week", would you still have come on here and called it "nonsense"? Of course you would have. Don't strain your neck patting yourself on the back, buddy. You were wrong, this post was not nonsense and the Min RB schooled LJ this week.

I've yet to see a post say "Minny RB will outscore LJ."...but since your league allows you to "replace" then you're right.

you can be as pedantic/legalistic as you want... but if you ignore the reasoning behind the prediction, it's your own foot you're shooting.

 

[One]

If the title of this post was: "Artose Pinner will outscore Larry Johnson this week", would you still have come on here and called it "nonsense"? Of course you would have. Don't strain your neck patting yourself on the back, buddy. You were wrong, this post was not nonsense and the Min RB schooled LJ this week.

I've yet to see a post say "Minny RB will outscore LJ."...but since your league allows you to "replace" then you're right.

you can be as pedantic/legalistic as you want... but if you ignore the reasoning behind the prediction, it's your own foot you're shooting.

am I the owner with 6 carries & 28 yds from my RB2?

 

[ready5]

If the title of this post was: "Artose Pinner will outscore Larry Johnson this week", would you still have come on here and called it "nonsense"? Of course you would have. Don't strain your neck patting yourself on the back, buddy. You were wrong, this post was not nonsense and the Min RB schooled LJ this week.

I've yet to see a post say "Minny RB will outscore LJ."...but since your league allows you to "replace" then you're right.

you can be as pedantic/legalistic as you want... but if you ignore the reasoning behind the prediction, it's your own foot you're shooting.

am I the owner with 6 carries & 28 yds from my RB2?

again, you're missing the point. i have a feeling that it's going to be pointless to explain the grander lesson to you so... let's just pretend that you're completely right about everything. you get a gold star and a pat on the head. good boy.

 

[PsychoMan]

I, and I imagine along with many others, lost my playoff matchup because of the decision to play Fason. How ridiculous. I hadn't heard anything about Pinner all week, and he completely goes off. If I'd have played him, I would have won my matchup without question.

Damn this game can be a #####.

Here's to better luck next year.

ps ... I'm pointing no fingers at Hoss Bog here. I think he was right on track with the projections. He just had the wrong starter, and I don't know if I can blame him - like I said, I didn't hear jack about Pinner all week.

Effing A I hate going out like this though!

 

[Joe Bryant]

I agree that Fason could be a decent "sleeper" this week, but you can't ignore A.Pinner. He is licking his chops to beat down the Lions. If Pinner gets into the game and breaks off a few nice runs (very possible vs. Lions) Fason may not see the field as much? It's also very possible that C.Taylor is playing possum, and starts with his sore ribs?

Great post.Good job on that one.

Yeah, great post....... How could this post possibly be wrong. He was right no matter what happened.

Looks to me like Ron called it exactly as it happened. He said don't forget about Pinner. Cited the revenge factor and thought he might start off hot and the team could stick with him. That looks to me exactly what happened. I wish I'd said that. J

Yeah, but he also stated that Fason was a decent "sleeper" and also that "Taylor is playing possum". Moore was the only one IMO that obviously wasn't going to carry the rock due to ST responsibilities.My point is how could he be wrong. He just gave each back a reason why they could/should be successful.He did raise a red flag. I just don't see that as going out on a limb. Now if he hadn't mentioned the other backs as good options too I would say brilliant. But I just think that was a brilliant cover for all bases....

I see him saying you "but you can't ignore A.Pinner. He is licking his chops to beat down the Lions. If Pinner gets into the game and breaks off a few nice runs (very possible vs. Lions) Fason may not see the field as much?" That is something I didn't see anyone else (myself included) saying.And I wish I had.J

 

[One]

If the title of this post was: "Artose Pinner will outscore Larry Johnson this week", would you still have come on here and called it "nonsense"? Of course you would have. Don't strain your neck patting yourself on the back, buddy. You were wrong, this post was not nonsense and the Min RB schooled LJ this week.

I've yet to see a post say "Minny RB will outscore LJ."...but since your league allows you to "replace" then you're right.

you can be as pedantic/legalistic as you want... but if you ignore the reasoning behind the prediction, it's your own foot you're shooting.

am I the owner with 6 carries & 28 yds from my RB2?

again, you're missing the point. i have a feeling that it's going to be pointless to explain the grander lesson to you so... let's just pretend that you're completely right about everything. you get a gold star and a pat on the head. good boy.

 

[PahtyTom]

Well, that was interesting.

 

[Hoss Bog]

I was surprised in reading through the board today that more people weren't compelled to rip me for a prediction that may have cost some people a playoff win, but I guess each individual pulls the trigger on their own. As a few people have brought up, projecting big breakout performances takes a delicate mix of objective analysis and subjective opinion/research to really get it right. On Sunday, every 'reliable' news source that was covering the Minnesota game said that Chester was going to be inactive and that Fason would get the nod as the starter (although props to R.White for thinking Pinner could get the bulk of the load). As I said in an earlier post on this discussion, this is the difficult part of being in the projection business, because outside of the coaches rooms in Minnesota, no one can really be quite sure about how each player's role will be determined in a given week. I hope I was one of the only ones to make the mistake on Fason on Sunday, and if anyone did because of my advice I apologize.

The only positive side of this failed prediction for me is that while my analysis of the backfield situation was way off, the algorithm that produced the results wasn't too far off. I guess this makes sense, since my background is in statistics and not coaching football. The model was telling me something that went against the popular opinion of all other fantasy football analysis on the internet (that the starting RB from the Vikings - even if it was a 3rd stringer - would outproduce the mega-stud Larry Johnson), but I picked the wrong horse to hitch my wagon to this time.

Tomorrow morning I will run the numbers from this past week through the model and begin breaking down the Week 15 matchups. As a FBG subscriber myself, I won't bother posting any conclusions that I draw from that analysis unless it goes against something that the FBG projections or advice is telling the subscribers. As you can see from this post about Fason, the main reason that I decided to post way because I didn't see any of the Minnesota running backs on the sleepers list and thought people may want to know about another possibility. If something like that pops up again, I'll be sure to let you all know what I find. Next time, however, I'll leave the subjective portion of the analysis up to you guys...

 

[Chickenwang]

props for bumping your own thread.

I started Fason. We all thought he would get the carries. Nothing you could do man...

 

[AnonymousBob]

I have tried to strip out as much subjective analysis as possible, but obviously some things you can't avoid, like guessing who is going to see a majority of the carries on any given Sunday. I've broken down the play calling tendencies of every team, but I couldn't tell you how many times I've been burned on Mike/Tatum and similar situations where the coach gives no indication of his game plan. As R.White said, maybe they go with Pinner and Fason hardly sees the ball at all. It's part of the business of projections.

Anyway, I don't expect people to agree that Fason is going to blow up this weekend, and I don't need props if he does (although feel free to call me out when he doesn't!), but I just wanted to share what I've found through my research. A lot of times on this board you will get advice like, "yo, start this clown cause he's wicked fast, yo" or "that guy sucks at quarterback and oh yeah, Duke sucks... go Buckeyes!". Hope some of this helps.

Looks like you've been burned again. Still, while you guessed the incorrect player, your overall prediction has caught my attention. I'll pay attention to any future sleepers you may have.

 

[BigTex]

I was surprised in reading through the board today that more people weren't compelled to rip me for a prediction that may have cost some people a playoff win, but I guess each individual pulls the trigger on their own. As a few people have brought up, projecting big breakout performances takes a delicate mix of objective analysis and subjective opinion/research to really get it right. On Sunday, every 'reliable' news source that was covering the Minnesota game said that Chester was going to be inactive and that Fason would get the nod as the starter (although props to R.White for thinking Pinner could get the bulk of the load). As I said in an earlier post on this discussion, this is the difficult part of being in the projection business, because outside of the coaches rooms in Minnesota, no one can really be quite sure about how each player's role will be determined in a given week. I hope I was one of the only ones to make the mistake on Fason on Sunday, and if anyone did because of my advice I apologize. The only positive side of this failed prediction for me is that while my analysis of the backfield situation was way off, the algorithm that produced the results wasn't too far off. I guess this makes sense, since my background is in statistics and not coaching football. The model was telling me something that went against the popular opinion of all other fantasy football analysis on the internet (that the starting RB from the Vikings - even if it was a 3rd stringer - would outproduce the mega-stud Larry Johnson), but I picked the wrong horse to hitch my wagon to this time. Tomorrow morning I will run the numbers from this past week through the model and begin breaking down the Week 15 matchups. As a FBG subscriber myself, I won't bother posting any conclusions that I draw from that analysis unless it goes against something that the FBG projections or advice is telling the subscribers. As you can see from this post about Fason, the main reason that I decided to post way because I didn't see any of the Minnesota running backs on the sleepers list and thought people may want to know about another possibility. If something like that pops up again, I'll be sure to let you all know what I find. Next time, however, I'll leave the subjective portion of the analysis up to you guys...

We all thought the same thing and I lost my playoff spot by 1pt and I have no one to blame but myself. I've been on point and very careful about all my starters the entire year. For the most part (the exception being that sorry fat lard of doo aka L. Jordan) my starters performed to the standard.I certainly had others on my bench this past week that I could have played but the match up that was presented to too good to pass up, it was a ride or die pick............well we all decided to ride but we got in the wrong vehicle. Chalk this up as a leason learned in my book.