Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Reconsider - and if you are also in a PPR, you are being straight up foolish leaving M J-D on your bench.
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Ciatrick Fason will outscore Larry Johnson in Week 14 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Hoss Bog
- Start date
Reconsider - and if you are also in a PPR, you are being straight up foolish leaving M J-D on your bench.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Then how do you explain 7th in the league pass attempts and completions and 13th in pass yards?
SuperJohn96
RPS World Champion
I find this stuff fascinating.Listen, given that it's hard to predict the number of touches a player will see (based on injury for example), have you ever gone back and looked at what your formulas spit out if you only input the exact number of touches?Hoss Bog said:
it's PPR at 0.5/reception and MJD is an ideal RB to take advantage of IND lack of rush defense. I saw him play IND in their last meeting and MJD was superb in the 2nd half when JAX was down and supposed to be throwing the ball and MJD would get both the dump off pass as well as the draw play for big gains vs IND prevent DEF. My biggest worry with Fason is the same reason that you don't draft a player that goes to another team or has a change in offensive coordinator or head coach,,,uncertainty of a new situation and even though Fason had great stats in relief of Taylor last week, coaches that have a week to prepare a game plan may use Fason differently as a sub starter with a week to think about it than they do the day the original starter gets hurt. There isn't enough sample size to make a good decision so it's just a gut move. I didn't get a chance to see Fason this past week, I only saw his stats, what did he look like, who does he resemble physically and run style?
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Lemmiwinks
Footballguy
What about Pinner? Is he going to get a chance?
I like the Fason prediction if he indeed gets 20 carries. This time of year, a guy with fresh legs like Fason has a big advantage over defenders who have played 12 games already. I've seen it every year... big star goes down, backup comes in with fresh legs late in the season and rips it.
I also like the reference above (sorry I'm not quoting you) about what Morris and Minor did to the Det rush defense. Those guys are below average talents and Miami's offensive line does not even stack up to Minnesota's in any way, shape or form.
Still, back to my original question: Will Pinner be involved? Has Fason taken most of the 1st team reps this week in practice?
I like the Fason prediction if he indeed gets 20 carries. This time of year, a guy with fresh legs like Fason has a big advantage over defenders who have played 12 games already. I've seen it every year... big star goes down, backup comes in with fresh legs late in the season and rips it.
I also like the reference above (sorry I'm not quoting you) about what Morris and Minor did to the Det rush defense. Those guys are below average talents and Miami's offensive line does not even stack up to Minnesota's in any way, shape or form.
Still, back to my original question: Will Pinner be involved? Has Fason taken most of the 1st team reps this week in practice?
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Then you need a new gut. Everything objective says lose the Fason opp and go with what you know.You must be a Fason or Viking Homer to choose anyone over M J-D given your scoring system. I'm willing to bet that, under your scoring system, M J-D is top-15 for RBs. I am in a league with 1 PPR and 1/10 for ret. yardage (+5 for going over 100 in ANY category - I know it's nuts - JJArrington is the #19 RB, but that is the only really weird outlier). M J-D is the #7 RBIn such leagues, you do not sit him in favor of a question mark. If M J-D runs back 4 KOs and catches 6 passes, those are free points that require an extra TD from Betts or Fason to match - and M J-D is scoring almost a TD per game.Your decision is between Betts and Fason.Anyway - back to your regularly schedule non-ACF non-hijacked topic . . .
MLBrandow... I haven't run accuracy metrics for a while as we've been cranking on seasonal baseball projections for a some time now, but I'll take a look sometime soon and get back to you.
SuperJohn96... That's something I worked on during development but we haven't looked back at it in a while because of other needs. It another great idea that I'll be sure to work on.
Another point that I should make clear is that I am assuming it's a non-PPR league, since that would put Larry Johnson ahead of Fason.
I haven't spoken with of the decision makers at FBG, but I'll just go ahead and post the links and if it's a problem, we'll handle it accordingly. Let me get something out of the way first, though. There's a reason why I'm a FBG subscriber and reader of their stuff for many years, and it's because they have some of the most original and interesting fantasy football research on the web. Anyone who is serious about this game we are all so crazy about is doing themselves a disservice if they haven't signed up for the premium content here. That's not brown-nosing... it's the truth.
Obviously, I love doing this stuff so I will try to make it back here earlier in the week next time and hopefully there will be something good to discuss for Week 15. I work for PROTRADE.com, which is a stock market for sports that has a large research wing. Alongside our fantasy game we do advanced analysis for a number of professional teams, from NFL to MLB to NBA. Someone earlier had joked that "Vegas would love me" and asked if I've got something for craps, which I found amusing because my boss is the main character from the book "Bringing Down the House" (under the alias Kevin Lewis). Anyway, hope I could be helpful and I'll see you guys back here next week if not sooner.
Here's a link to the running back projections...
Week 14 Running Back Projections
SuperJohn96... That's something I worked on during development but we haven't looked back at it in a while because of other needs. It another great idea that I'll be sure to work on.
Another point that I should make clear is that I am assuming it's a non-PPR league, since that would put Larry Johnson ahead of Fason.
I haven't spoken with of the decision makers at FBG, but I'll just go ahead and post the links and if it's a problem, we'll handle it accordingly. Let me get something out of the way first, though. There's a reason why I'm a FBG subscriber and reader of their stuff for many years, and it's because they have some of the most original and interesting fantasy football research on the web. Anyone who is serious about this game we are all so crazy about is doing themselves a disservice if they haven't signed up for the premium content here. That's not brown-nosing... it's the truth.
Obviously, I love doing this stuff so I will try to make it back here earlier in the week next time and hopefully there will be something good to discuss for Week 15. I work for PROTRADE.com, which is a stock market for sports that has a large research wing. Alongside our fantasy game we do advanced analysis for a number of professional teams, from NFL to MLB to NBA. Someone earlier had joked that "Vegas would love me" and asked if I've got something for craps, which I found amusing because my boss is the main character from the book "Bringing Down the House" (under the alias Kevin Lewis). Anyway, hope I could be helpful and I'll see you guys back here next week if not sooner.
Here's a link to the running back projections...
Week 14 Running Back Projections
GREAT STUFF!!!!
This is why I come here and search through these threads.
I picked up Fason earlier this week when Chester Taylor went down as my #2 back. Since L. Maroney was my primary backup, I had to make a last second move before rosters froze, and I saw nothing on the waiver wire with any real promise.
I figured that the matchup was so good Fason had to have a chance at decent stats.
After reading all of this, my only question is...Why is it so hard to belive that Fason could approach (or even beat) L.J.'s numbers this weekend?
My honest expectation (hope?) was for 100 total yards and a TD. I have a hard time seeing L.J much over 120 and a TD against Baltimore, home or not. In most scoring systems, that's not a huge difference.
(Granted....the number of screen passes LJ should see in ppr leagues would skew this thought a bit).
This is why I come here and search through these threads.
I picked up Fason earlier this week when Chester Taylor went down as my #2 back. Since L. Maroney was my primary backup, I had to make a last second move before rosters froze, and I saw nothing on the waiver wire with any real promise.
I figured that the matchup was so good Fason had to have a chance at decent stats.
After reading all of this, my only question is...Why is it so hard to belive that Fason could approach (or even beat) L.J.'s numbers this weekend?
My honest expectation (hope?) was for 100 total yards and a TD. I have a hard time seeing L.J much over 120 and a TD against Baltimore, home or not. In most scoring systems, that's not a huge difference.
(Granted....the number of screen passes LJ should see in ppr leagues would skew this thought a bit).
Chickenwang
Footballguy
LJ doesnt even get screen passes anymore!
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Yup - you'd expect Moore to get most of the targets to RBs.BTW, it is hard for me to accept Fason over LJ as a given - not b/c he can't do it, but because it is not likely, IMO, that he'll have enough rushing opps to do it.I think LJ will touch the ball 35 times. Fason will be lucky to get 20 touches.That said, I could easily see their numbers being relatively similar on those touches.30 rushes for LJ, at 3 per = 90 rush yards. 4/5 catches for 25-30 yards. Maybe a TD.Fason = 16-19 rushes @ at least 4 per (team is averaging 4.19 and Lions are giving up 4.18 - 4.2-ish from Fason is reasonable). Probably a touch (moving the ball well as the Vikes are expected to = more opps for short rushing TD). Maybe two.I could see it happening, but it is more dependent, IMO, on LJ not scoring a TD than Fason blowing up.BTW, I am not being contradictory - I see the Ravens giving LJ his worst game of the year, but that will still probably be good enough to outscore LJ. Which means it is not out of the realm of possibility to say Fason can outperform LJ though - esp., if LJ is kept out of the end zone - but it is not a likelihood.
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Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
BTW, KC is averaging only 4.16 per rush and LJ is averaging 4.2.
The Ravens are giving up 3.15 per attempt on the ground and gave up only 3.7 to LT, who had to carry the ball 27 times to get 98 rush yards.
Baltimore and Pitt are the only two teams to have kep LT out of the end zone. LJ's not as efficient as LT, so it is reasonable to believe LJ may struggle just as much - esp. in the red zone.
The Ravens are giving up 3.15 per attempt on the ground and gave up only 3.7 to LT, who had to carry the ball 27 times to get 98 rush yards.
Baltimore and Pitt are the only two teams to have kep LT out of the end zone. LJ's not as efficient as LT, so it is reasonable to believe LJ may struggle just as much - esp. in the red zone.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
BTW, KC is averaging only 4.16 per rush and LJ is averaging 4.2.
The Ravens are giving up 3.15 per attempt on the ground and gave up only 3.7 to LT, who had to carry the ball 27 times to get 98 rush yards.
Baltimore and Pitt are the only two teams to have kep LT out of the end zone. LJ's not as efficient as LT, so it is reasonable to believe LJ may struggle just as much - esp. in the red zone.
The Ravens are giving up 3.15 per attempt on the ground and gave up only 3.7 to LT, who had to carry the ball 27 times to get 98 rush yards.
Baltimore and Pitt are the only two teams to have kep LT out of the end zone. LJ's not as efficient as LT, so it is reasonable to believe LJ may struggle just as much - esp. in the red zone.
Todem
Footballguy
So tell me Marc how productive on the score board and win colum has that been?That stat does not tell the story of a putrid passing attack that strikes no fear in any defensive unit.
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Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
??? Your answer does not answer my question. A putrid pass attack doesn't rack up top-10 pass attempts/completions and top-15 pass yardage.As I said in the audible sleeper thread. Their problem is not moving the ball through the air - they are a passing threat. Their problem is an inability to score TDs - both passing TDs and rushing TDs. The team is 26th in scoring offense but 13th in yards. Since defenses are as concerned with preventing teams from moving inside their 20 as they are preventing them from scoring TDs, defenses must account for the Vikings pass attack.Johnson has a low YPA, but still accumulate a lot of passing yards. That tells me the team sticks with short, high percentage passes. Therefore, opponents may NOT simply stack the box and stop the run - if they do that, the Vikings will move the ball through the air. Considering the Lions are 30th in the league in scoring D, they better not count on stopping the run game and letting Johnson throw the ball.The point being the Vikes have a threatening passing attack - to call it "putrid" is grossly underestimating the threat - an underestimation that I guarantee defensive coordinators will not make.
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You know I agree with everything you've said except,,,MJD is #10 RB in my scoring system. Thanks for the reality check, you are completely on target. Fason is on the bench behind LJ, MJD and Betts. Back on LJ/Fason,,,BAL has been pretty much a beast vs RB's just to restate the obvious. They have pretty much shut everyone down with the exception of week 4 LT 98 yds 0 TD @ 3.6 avg, week 5 Tatum Bell 92 yds 0 TD @ 4.8 avg, week 9 Rudy Johnson 77 yds 1 TD @ 4.3 avg and week 10 Travis Henry 107 yds 1 TD @ 4.0 avg and shut everyone else down soundly. BAL is #2 in rushing yards allowed @ 75/game and only 5 rushing TD's allowed this season. LJ is going to be running uphill this week. The only plus in LJ's favor this week is that the game is at Arrowhead.Marc Levin said:
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
And Herm will have no problem handing off to LJ a TON even if he starts off slowly.
On thing about LJ is he runs angry - a hard hitting defense like Baltimore might make him just angry enough to run effectively - I still think it will take a lot of carries, but I doubt the Ravens will hold LJ under 100 rush yards.
The only way I could see LJ being held in check is if the Ravens somehow manage a 14 point lead and the Chiefs have to play from behind for most of the second half - IOW, the least likely scenario.
On thing about LJ is he runs angry - a hard hitting defense like Baltimore might make him just angry enough to run effectively - I still think it will take a lot of carries, but I doubt the Ravens will hold LJ under 100 rush yards.
The only way I could see LJ being held in check is if the Ravens somehow manage a 14 point lead and the Chiefs have to play from behind for most of the second half - IOW, the least likely scenario.
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I hate to say it Mark, but your last couple of posts make it sound even more likely that Fason could outscore LJ. If uber-studs are BARELY threatening to bust 100 yds, and have only 5 TD's in 12 games, then why is it "unlikely" that Fason couild outscore LJ. I might not call it probable, but the more we think about it, the more this seems to be sounding like a distinct possibility in the 50-50 area p[rovided Taylor sits.
cstu
Footballguy
The Vikes signed Taylor because he was an experienced back with good hands that fit their offense. They drafted Fason on talent, not because he was ready for the NFL. Fason was a raw as they come, but he definitely has the ability. The big question is if he'll ever be able to make the most of it and become an every down back in the NFL.Here is another nugget for ya genius. If Fason was so good why did they sign Chester Taylor? Fason was a very good back in college. I watched his whole career at Florida. How much have you seen of Fason other than last week? He is a back-up who has decent potential but up to this point has proven to be a marginal talent. Otheriwse why is he not starting? Why? Oh yeah the Vikings knew he is not that type of player yet. He may never be. Go start a Wali Lundy thead while your at it.So the Vikings can run the ball with a "marginal talent" like Fason? Cool.All the Vikings can sdo is run the ball. If I were the Lions I would force the pass. Simple.Why would the Lions do everything to stop the run if, like you say, Fason is a marginal talent? I don't think we know what kind of production Fason is capable of at this level, much like we weren't so sure what other backups were capable of before getting a starting spot. But, that's why I think the Fason projection is dicey (but I think Hoss knows that). I don't know how the model works, but I'm sure the projections are more accurate with the more data that is available, and since there just is not much data on Fason in the NFL I would suspect that the results could vary greatly.I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?
I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
If we are talking likelihood of fantasy success, then you have to factor in several things against Fason.1) he may not be the lone ball carrier.2) even if he is the lone runner, he is not likely to see targets.3) even if he is the lone ball carrier and sees targets, he may not see very many touches - I'd say 20 is a high number of touches for Fason in this game.4) the chances of Taylor actually playing - at least for the first few minutes - thereby reducing even further Fason's chances.5) Fason struggling and Moore or Pinner running really well and stealing carries as the game progresses.6) GL back? Is it Fason or will they use someone else.Balance all that against:1) Herm Edwards will almost certainly get the ball into LJ's hands 35 times or more.2) any back with that many carries/touches is gonna approach or exceed 100 yards on the day.3) they WORK THE HECK out of LJ inside the 5. And you know he'll get the ball if they get down there.4) proven ability to blow up - even if he is playing a stout D. LJ is much more likely to get you 150/2 than Fason - even when LJ plays against Bal and Fason v. Det.LJ would be a more reasonable play than Taylor, so he is CERTAINLY a more reaonsable play than Questionmark Fason
The Mollusk
Footballguy
I agree -- this model is really going out on a limb in places. Kevin Jones is not on the list, yet Arlen Harris is 44th. That is quite bold.
elpasotexan
Footballguy
I am following out of necessity. My playoff opponent has LJ. I'm starting Fason bc of Brown's injury. OP has me convinced!
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Lemmiwinks
Footballguy
Agreed. Fason could easily score 2 TD's this week if CT is out, which I think he will be.
blueandsilver
Footballguy
What nobody has mentioned here is that the Lions are allowing nearly double the fantasy points allowed to RB's as the Ravens do. In my Fantasy League (PPR for RB's) the Ravens only allow 15.6 ppg to RB's and the Lions allow 28.8 ppg to RB's. That also doesn't take into account the Lions best run stoppers being out the last half of the year (Shaun Rogers and Shaun Cody, both are on IR). In the first 4 games they stopped Shaun Alexander, Thomas Jones (when the Bears offense actually moved the ball), Ahman Green, and Steven Jackson. Since Shaun Rogers was suspended 6 games ago, teams have run at will on the Lions. The Lions can't stop the run or the pass. I believe the Vikings as a team will score more RB points than LJ will, but it's very tough to predict that Fason will get enough of the action to outscore LJ. Overall the post is a good read. I believe that you have to think outside the box at times.
The Jacket
Footballguy
LJ has been very good in his career against top notch defenses. LT not so much.Last year's Chargers run defense was as good as this year's Baltimore unit, and LJ just ran roughshot over them. Granted, it's different circumstances and all, but I don't mind the matchup.
Cleat Spike
Footballguy
Saw on the Blogger it looks like Detroit MLB Teddy Lehman likely will not play today either.LB Teddy Lehman (hamstring) didn't practice Friday and likely won't play Sunday. "I wouldn't think so," Lehman said when he was asked if he would play against the Vikings. This D looks pretty beat up? And you know Fason is going to want to put on a good first impression if he indeed gets the start. Pretty much an audition for him this game against a sruggling Defense.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Hmm. No MLB...........this could spell at least one big play for WHOEVER is the RB for Minny. If that O-line can get into the secondary on a run.............a pulled guard, pancake to a player to get to the second level...............I don't care who is toting the rock its going to go for distance!But it should be Fason. I'm sure Childress wants to see what he has if nothing else in his Rook.
Cleat Spike
Footballguy
Looking around it seems there are a lot of teams hanging their FF playoff hopes on this guy. This time of year as injuries have set in guys like this could be gold! But it does come with risk. Chester Taylor could pull some crazy stunt and actually play, maybe a lot, maybe a little.....but he's still there lurking for a GTD. Then you have the fact that Fason/Taylor play at 1pm so there is no turning back. I have to choose between McGahee (4:15pm) and a GTD or one of these Minn RBs playing at 1pm for my RB2.
You pretty much have to go with the sure thing at this point and there isn't one right now! Seems like Fason is the healthiest though. I just need Chester to shut it down and let us know before 12:55pm!
You pretty much have to go with the sure thing at this point and there isn't one right now! Seems like Fason is the healthiest though. I just need Chester to shut it down and let us know before 12:55pm!
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Pinner fumbled at end of half and Fason got last carry -
Pinner already has 18 carries in the 1st half..........Detoit's Defense has been on the field 22:09 out of 30......
maybe Fason gets the work against a tired Detriot defense in the 2nd half? Game is still close enough for full effort.......
ETA
Pinner already has 18 carries in the 1st half..........Detoit's Defense has been on the field 22:09 out of 30......
maybe Fason gets the work against a tired Detriot defense in the 2nd half? Game is still close enough for full effort.......
ETA
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Pinner hasn't seen a carry since Week 9 and Fason gets all the looks last week when filling in for the injured Chester Taylor. All reports out of Minnesota were that Fason would get the carries should Taylor not be able to play. And now Pinner is getting all the looks.
I will likely lose one of my most important leagues because of this bad call. I can't be upset with the math model cause had I run the numbers with Pinner, they would have been even better than what it spit out with Fason as the feature back. But damn this is killing me.
I will likely lose one of my most important leagues because of this bad call. I can't be upset with the math model cause had I run the numbers with Pinner, they would have been even better than what it spit out with Fason as the feature back. But damn this is killing me.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Im just saying - it isn't over yet. Not unless you see Pinner getting 40+ touches. I see some speed playing into this game late.'Course, I could be nuts
Todem
Footballguy
Great post.Good job on that one.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Yeah, great post.......
How could this post possibly be wrong. He was right no matter what happened.The Jacket
Footballguy
Yep. And behind such a pathetic O-line to boot.Anyone watching the game can confirm how bad it is.Fun fact: LJ had/has more yards against Baltimore through two and a half quarters than any TEAM in football had against them all SEASON.The Jacket said:
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
That's what Stats can't tell you. The Human element and what coaches are thinking as far as who will tote the rock. When a guy like Fason has proven just about nothing it is very hard to swallow taking a chance on starting a guy like that. But I will give you that your model worked great. Just the wrong player.And Minny's passing game still sucks big the one Levin.144 yards and a pick so far. That is some passing attack. Strikes fear into the heart of defenses.
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I remember a few of my Lions friends gasping when Pinner got let go. I think a Detroit homer could have seen this coming but Pinner would have been a reach to the rest of the world.
Lemmiwinks
Footballguy
I can't believe this. I started Fason knowing that pinner was still around and it bit me in the ###.
Looks to me like Ron called it exactly as it happened. He said don't forget about Pinner. Cited the revenge factor and thought he might start off hot and the team could stick with him. That looks to me exactly what happened.Yeah, great post.......
I wish I'd said that. J
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Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Yeah, but he also stated that Fason was a decent "sleeper" and also that "Taylor is playing possum". Moore was the only one IMO that obviously wasn't going to carry the rock due to ST responsibilities.My point is how could he be wrong. He just gave each back a reason why they could/should be successful.He did raise a red flag. I just don't see that as going out on a limb. Now if he hadn't mentioned the other backs as good options too I would say brilliant. But I just think that was a brilliant cover for all bases....Looks to me like Ron called it exactly as it happened. He said don't forget about Pinner. Cited the revenge factor and thought he might start off hot and the team could stick with him. That looks to me exactly what happened.Yeah, great post.......
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
wishful thinking.
