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CIN at TEN -3.5 SF at GB -6 LAR at TB -3 BUF at KC -2 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
So far these are the opening lines and we won't know what the spread is in Tampa until after tomorrow night but which games do you see an upset in so far? 

A lot of people are excited about both Buffalo and Cinci, is that an overreaction to the games this past weekend?

 
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People always like the underdogs in this round, especially against the teams that had a bye. Regency bias I guess. Personally, I like SF to cover in a coin flip game. They are playing solid. Cincy is decimated on defense and I think they get beat by 7+. KC Buff is going to be a classic. I think Buff ekes it out. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
So far these are the opening lines and we won't know what the spread is in Tampa until after tomorrow night but which games do you see an upset in so far? 

A lot of people are excited about both Buffalo and Cinci, is that an overreaction to the games this past weekend?
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Way too many hours before these games start. Injuries probably have influence at this point. I think you can make a legit case for any team winning right now which is wild.

Want to start to dig into Tenn vs Cincy. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
an overreaction to the games this past weekend?
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Oh for sure, as always.

Whatever the case may be, I'm all over Cinci.  Burrow shows no signs of youth or intimidation, worry, etc to me. In fact, quite the opposite.  People forget he's 25.  Comes from a coach, more seasoned than people perceive him.

KC I have to think will go to 3 after that offensive showcase.  Not that Buffalo didn't have one of their own, but KC looked like Superbowl Champ KC.  And that will fetch some dough.

GB seems about right.  SF matches up well, but JG isn't coming out of Lambeau with a win.  This isn't Dallas.

 
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Green Bay by 5.5 is mind blowing to me. I'd have guessed 10.5. This is a much better team than the one that SF ran all over in the 2019 playoffs, and the 49ers aren't as good as that team. 

I'd say TB -7 seems fair to me, regardless of who they draw, unless tomorrow is a one sided blowout. 

 
travdogg said:
Green


Bay by 5.5 is mind blowing to me. I'd have guessed 10.5. This is a much better team than the one that SF ran all over in the 2019 playoffs, and the 49ers aren't as good as that team. 

I'd say TB -7 seems fair to me, regardless of who they draw, unless tomorrow is a one sided blowout. 
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I think it will be about 5.5 for that game for Tampa.

10.5 is WAY too big, but agree I'd bet GB to cover that.

 
For the Love of...let it go already. 

"The referees' regrettable workday was highlighted by the Bengals touchdown that shouldn't have counted -- a mistake amplified by the fact that Cincy eventually won by exactly seven points"

-That's one way to paint the picture but it's another to disregard the entire 2nd Half and how the Raiders settled for FGs the entire way. This also does not account for the fact Cinci was likely going to score anyways, sure sure anything could have happened but the Raiders were on their heels at best during that drive. It's foolish to say the Raiders lost the game on a 1st Half inadvertent whistle even though IT DID HAPPEN

 
Ministry of Pain said:
It's foolish to say the Raiders lost the game on a 1st Half inadvertent whistle even though IT DID HAPPEN
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I don't think it's foolish to say that. The whistle should negate the TD per the 'current' rules.  No one knows what would have happened next because the 'official' officials didn't apply their very own rules.  Another strike against the integrity of the NFL.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
So far these are the opening lines and we won't know what the spread is in Tampa until after tomorrow night but which games do you see an upset in so far? 

A lot of people are excited about both Buffalo and Cinci, is that an overreaction to the games this past weekend?
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you were on BUF nuts after one quarter of the KC game...what do you have now....?

 
Flipper said:
I don't think it's foolish to say that. The whistle should negate the TD per the 'current' rules.  No one knows what would have happened next because the 'official' officials didn't apply their very own rules.  Another strike against the integrity of the NFL.
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The writer is correct, officials were all over the place and bad, but the writer's also clearly biased.  Kind of funny to see how they can paint things one way or the other.  This hack is not good at concealing it.  

Could've been worse though, at least the best team won.  And no, I'm not a Cinci fan.

 
The top seeds get a bye because they were the best during the regular season. We get caught up in the wildcard round,see a team play a big game and naturally assume they are going to stay on a roll. 17 game,18 week covid filled season. Packers and Titans get a huge boost with the byes. I'd lean towards both of them in this round. Chiefs/Bills could be a classic. Maybe last team with the ball wins? The upset might be Cards/Rams winner at Tampa,I'll watch The Bucs injury situation before deciding on that one.

 
Unless the Bengals find some defensive linemen it is going to be a long day.  Henry might put up 200 yards if he is back.  Jessie Bates texted Geno Atkins for help.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
So far these are the opening lines and we won't know what the spread is in Tampa until after tomorrow night but which games do you see an upset in so far? 

A lot of people are excited about both Buffalo and Cinci, is that an overreaction to the games this past weekend?
Click to expand...
the excitement for cincy has to be more about the last few games of the regular season. Winning their first playoff game in 30 years is great but there’s nothing from that game that convinced me they are likely to beat Tennessee. Any given Sunday and all that, but I’m feeling pretty good about my Titans this week.

Buffalo and KC are scary when on. Allen and Mahomes will be contenders every year from now to retirement and the rest of their teams are strong. I’ll go with Buffalo mostly because I think their defense is more likely to make key stops but man that is probably the best game of the playoffs.  Really glad Tennessee only has to play one of them. 
 

SF will probably do better than I expect but GB shouldn’t have a really hard time with that. 
 

If almost (Probably not Pittsburgh) any of the 12 other teams had played Tampa this week they’d have lost imo. LA or AZ should be MUCH better than Philly. 
 

Tennessee vs Buffalo

 Green Bay vs LA

 
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Kc and Buf offenses are equal. It seems like a stretch when KC has the history, but the Bills just gained every yard they possibly could in a game against the second best defence. 

Buffalo has a better defender but with this league geared so much toward scoring I am not sure how much that matters. 

To me a key will be officiating. Last year the refs “let them play” which really favors KC. If they call it more like the Super Bowl was called that helps the Bills. 

 
Not sure how I will lean on these games just yet, I did grab some o52.5 for the KC/Buffalo game though 

probably will take the Bengals and the points, maybe the over in that one 

lean GB but I could definitely see a situation where SF get an early lead and put together a couple of 10 min drives in the 2h to ice it

 
Ministry of Pain said:
So far these are the opening lines and we won't know what the spread is in Tampa until after tomorrow night but which games do you see an upset in so far? 

A lot of people are excited about both Buffalo and Cinci, is that an overreaction to the games this past weekend?
Click to expand...
As soon as it opened I put my winnings from SF/DAL on SF +5.5

I like them to keep it close enough - and that was before we knew that Bosa & Warner are likely both good to go.  Now that I've heard that I'm a little surprised the line didn't drop to 5 or 4.5. 

 
Shocked that TB is only 58% favorite at home against the Rams. I would have guessed at least 70%, probably 74%.

 
Going to be an amazing weekend of football next weekend.  If you take away the automatic 3 points for being at home, the spreads work out to:

Cinci Tenn - Pickem
Packers - 2.5
Bills - 0.5
Rams Bucs - Pickem

Exciting stuff.

 
eighsse said:
Shocked that TB is only 58% favorite at home against the Rams. I would have guessed at least 70%, probably 74%.
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Short handed, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see LA win. Almost a coin flip so that sounds right. Nowhere near 70%.  I wouldn’t have any of these games over maybe 60% chance of victory. 

 
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49ers at Packers on Sat, Jan 22

Network:  FOX
Play-By-Play: Joe Buck
Color Analyst: Troy Aikman 
Sideline Reporter: Erin Andrews 
Sideline Reporter: Tom Rinaldi

 
Rubi said:
The top seeds get a bye because they were the best during the regular season. We get caught up in the wildcard round,see a team play a big game and naturally assume they are going to stay on a roll. 17 game,18 week covid filled season. Packers and Titans get a huge boost with the byes. I'd lean towards both of them in this round. Chiefs/Bills could be a classic. Maybe last team with the ball wins? The upset might be Cards/Rams winner at Tampa,I'll watch The Bucs injury situation before deciding on that one.
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Sooooo,I'll go.....

Titans- 27

Bengals- 20

Packers- 29

Niners- 17

Rams- 34

Bucs- 24

Chiefs- 37

Bills- 34

 
don't know the history of west coast teams traveling east for a playoff game but I'm not sold on Stafford in a playoff game on the road, on grass, outdoors against Joe Almighty TB12. Stafford has one playoff win in his career, let's see how he handles playing away from a dome. for his career, he is 26-35 w-l outdoors, with an 88.1 QB rate. 40-50 w-l in away games for his career. this is a very bad spot for him here. hard to get all warm and fuzzy about the Rams offense in this matchup.

Niners own A. Rodgers mojo in playoff games, he's never beaten them in the postseason. But I wonder about Shanahan, he damn near gave that game away to the Cowboys. he has a history of crumbling late in contests. the bigger the game, the bigger the coaching blunder by this guy. It will be 1 degree on saturday in Green Bay, with a 50% chance of snow. that HAS to favor the home team. Jimmy G has a bum shoulder. As much as I like the road dog story with the Niners, I just dont see how they win this thing.

Titans should cover at home and win the game.

Chiefs are up against a tough team here. Bills offense is looking good, I'm not entirely sold on the Chiefs defense, and their DC. They're unable to stop the run consistently. Bills have the better defense in this tilt and defense wins titles. Bills cover, and win outright.

 
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Head is saying Bills over KC and Rams over Bucs. Heart is saying Bengals over Titans and 49ers over Packers. 

 
I can't imagine Titans game is close. It just feels like a classic blowout playoff game.

I totally get that the Titans are just too much for Cincy's D to handle and they're the experienced playoff team and all Titan stuff.

I totally get that Titans CBs will struggle to stop Cincy WRs and Burrow could have a day.

I really think this is the Titans year and never have ever and it's even uncomfortable to think that. This Bengals team scares me most of all remaining teams. The Titans have beaten the others pretty much.

For DFS, I'm gonna be playing showdown mode and loading up on each team for a couple separate entries. 

Green Bay is the best line here imo. Dallas was curiously awful and idk whether to give San Fran tons of credit or not. I just don't think they can do that again. 

 
CEH looks likely to be back this week. If KC is smart, it's as a backup to McKinnon. Can't put that genie back in the box. 

 
For me, I think GB - 6 is a solid bet.  The Niners barely beat a pretty bad Dallas team and GB is rested, the weather will be cold, and I think Aaron is on a mission this year.  I also like the Titans at -3.  Solid run game and the Bengals run D is bad and banged up.  I want to pick Buffalo but the spread keeps shrinking and I have a hard time picking against a Chief's team that seems to have gotten hot at the right time at home.

 
Bri said:
Green Bay is the best line here imo. Dallas was curiously awful and idk whether to give San Fran tons of credit or not. I just don't think they can do that again. 
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My position remains that Green Bay is similar to Dallas in that every year we hear the talking heads talking about how great the team is and every year they disappoint in the post-season.  Although I would not put it past SF to fold at Lambeau, my expectation is that Green Bay is one and done.  If wrong, I see GB beating the Bucs or losing to the Rams.

SF 27 GB 23

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
My position remains that


Green


Bay is similar to


Dallas


in that every year we hear the talking heads talking about how great the team is and every year they disappoint in the post-season.  Although I would not put it past SF to fold at Lambeau, my expectation is that


Green


Bay is one and done.  If wrong, I see GB beating the Bucs or losing to the Rams.

SF 27 GB 23
Click to expand...


As a GB homer, hard to argue with the "one and done" logic considering their history. 

I'm preparing for the worst, yet again.  As a franchise with TWO MVP/HOF QBs in 30 years and only 2 Superbowl's to show for it, I simply cannot believe we've squandered our good fortune so badly.  We should have at least as many SuperBowl rings as Brady, if not more.

GB will NEVER be so fortunate in the future (I'm looking at you Jordan Love) ever again.  Man, what a waste.

 
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BladeRunner said:
As a GB homer, hard to argue with the "one and done" logic considering their history. 

I'm preparing for the worst, yet again.  As a franchise with TWO MVP/HOF QBs in 30 years and only 2 Superbowl's to show for it, I simply cannot believe we've squandered our good fortune so badly.  We should have at least as many SuperBowl rings as Brady, if not more.

GB will NEVER be so fortunate in the future (I'm looking at you Jordan Love) ever again.  Man, what a waste.
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McCarthy 13 years.  You don't need to look far -- 14 penalties last weekend and led the league in them -- to see why a QB like Rodgers was wasted.

How he was hired again I'll never know.  Oh wait, yeah I do.  Jerry Jones.  It's actually wonderful.

 
BladeRunner said:
As a GB homer, hard to argue with the "one and done" logic considering their history. 

I'm preparing for the worst, yet again.  As a franchise with TWO MVP/HOF QBs in 30 years and only 2 Superbowl's to show for it, I simply cannot believe we've squandered our good fortune so badly.  We should have at least as many SuperBowl rings as Brady, if not more.

GB will NEVER be so fortunate in the future (I'm looking at you Jordan Love) ever again.  Man, what a waste.
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Agreed that its disappointing and shows...outside of Brady/Patriots...its really hard to do.

And I think it comes down to coaching.  Outside of Holmgren...their coaching IMO has brought them down.

 
sho nuff said:
Agreed that its disappointing and shows...outside of Brady/Patriots...its really hard to do.

And I think it comes down to coaching.  Outside of Holmgren...their coaching IMO has brought them down.
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No reason to give Holmgren a pass. He managed to lose a Superbowl as an 11 point favorite.  In terms of Packer coaching failures during the Favre/Rodgers run, nothing comes close to XXXII.

Other than the last couple McCarthy seasons, one of which he played with Brett Hundley at QB, I think its hard to pin the lack of Superbowls on the head coaches. One year of Ray Rhodes was probably one too many. Mike Sherman doesn't bring back fond memories, but he won pretty consistently other than that disastrous final year.  I really just think its hard to win Superbowls and especially hard to win 2 or more. There's a long list of great QB's who played long careers and only won 1 or none. The Packers have consistently been there at the end of the season many times.  I think we have to acknowledge that many of the great Packer seasons over the last 25 years have ended because our HOF QB had a bad day.

 
Packers will cover. I don't think SF has much of a shot in 0 degrees. Last time I remember Kaepernick playing in Chicago in the winter (snowy hell day) and he completely wilted, along with the entire team. Consistent and sunny California boys cannot train for 0 degree days. Ever. 

 
BladeRunner said:
As a GB homer, hard to argue with the "one and done" logic considering their history. 

I'm preparing for the worst, yet again.  As a franchise with TWO MVP/HOF QBs in 30 years and only 2 Superbowl's to show for it, I simply cannot believe we've squandered our good fortune so badly.  We should have at least as many SuperBowl rings as Brady, if not more.

GB will NEVER be so fortunate in the future (I'm looking at you Jordan Love) ever again.  Man, what a waste.
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I think the institutional west coast derivative option has made bad coaches look better than they are over the years, and made pretty good QBs look like HOFers (no I'm not saying they are not HOFers).  GB seems to suffer from a common affliction around the league which is over-valuating the sexiness of potent offenses.  Probably the biggest reason why I DON"T think SF is a lock this weekend is that this is one of the better iterations of defense in GB.

 
A potential 2-page thread after all the FF casuals have left for the off season already...

-Great job by the SP, we need to discuss these match-ups and points spreads much earlier in the week vs Sunday Morning. 

Cheers!

 
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