CJ Spiller workload (1 Viewer)

[Area51Inhabitant]

I would think Manuel is a greater threat of poaching goal line td's than Freddy is at this point. Either way, Spiller is capable of scoring on any touch from any point on the field and he'll get you bonus receiving yards/catches/tds as well so the overall effect of losing a few of those goal line td's is negligible imo. The biggest worry for Spiller owners is if he can stay on the field and handle the extra workload. If he can, he's a top 5 fantasy back for certain and could be top 2 or 3 in ppr.

 

[Black]

no concerns or questions if CJ can be that bell cow?

Last year Spiller seemed to be most effective with 15-17 touches. I can't see how he can hold up with 30. I don't know many RBs who can touch the ball 30 times and not wear down after a few weeks. Maybe Arian Foster, ADP? Spiller might last 5 games at that rate.

BUF is going to have to mix in some FJax and TChoice to get him through the season.

 

[meyerj31]

no concerns or questions if CJ can be that bell cow?

Last year Spiller seemed to be most effective with 15-17 touches. I can't see how he can hold up with 30. I don't know many RBs who can touch the ball 30 times and not wear down after a few weeks. Maybe Arian Foster, ADP? Spiller might last 5 games at that rate.

BUF is going to have to mix in some FJax and TChoice to get him through the season.

I'm sure it is just coach speak. No RB can average more than 25 touches a game and remain effective/uninjured.

Peterson didn't even average 25 touches/game last year and he was used indiscriminately.

20/game is a reasonable projection since that offense is horrid, with 20% of them being catches.

I see something like 260 carries for 1300 yards, 40 catches for another 300, ~10 total TDs.

 

[Shutout]

no concerns or questions if CJ can be that bell cow?

Last year Spiller seemed to be most effective with 15-17 touches. I can't see how he can hold up with 30. I don't know many RBs who can touch the ball 30 times and not wear down after a few weeks. Maybe Arian Foster, ADP? Spiller might last 5 games at that rate.

BUF is going to have to mix in some FJax and TChoice to get him through the season.

Yep. FJAX will once again resurrect a fantasy team from the dead when called upon. Choice will be added and dropped at least three times in everyone's leagues. But this is probably what will happen. I just can't see Spiller carrying the load like that. Chris Johnson is the only guy in that build-range that has done it in a long time. Takes a lot of luck to pull that off.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Right now it looks like Choice will be the goaline guy.

But the Bills plan to use their RBs a ton. Spiller will get the most work by quite a bit, but Jackson will see the field a fair amount.

Manual will probably start the year at QB and the Bills will try to ease the burden on him by running a LOT.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I can see it now: Spiller owners will be spitting fire by Week 2 when they see that Fred Jackson is still getting a fair amount of touches, and that Spiller doesn't get all of the goal line carries, even though it appears obvious that those things will be the case.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I can see it now: Spiller owners will be spitting fire by Week 2 when they see that Fred Jackson is still getting a fair amount of touches, and that Spiller doesn't get all of the goal line carries, even though it appears obvious that those things will be the case.

Maybe, buy my guess is that his production will be elite enough that they won't complain a whole lot. Almost all his carries last year were from outside goaline situations and he did just fine.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

Spiller's going to be a monster if he stays in one piece. I really don't see this as a concern at all.

 

[Ilov80s]

On NFL Network Earl Campbell was just asked about what it's like to carry the ball so many times in a game. He said, "It's easy, the ball ain't heavy." He also said he wasn't really loose and in full form until about the 20th carry and that he always wished there was a 5th quarter. Spiller is no Campbell, but it's an interesting take.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I can see it now: Spiller owners will be spitting fire by Week 2 when they see that Fred Jackson is still getting a fair amount of touches, and that Spiller doesn't get all of the goal line carries, even though it appears obvious that those things will be the case.

Maybe, buy my guess is that his production will be elite enough that they won't complain a whole lot. Almost all his carries last year were from outside goaline situations and he did just fine.

True. And to repeat what I have said before, Spiller is a dynamite back to watch; it is not hard to be a fan of a guy who runs like he does. I just think it will be difficult to justify him being a borderline top 5 RB pick this year as far as value goes, especially if Jackson continues to get 10+ touches a game, and someone else is getting the goal line carries. Plus, the Bills QB situation is a concern. Fitzpatrick was erratic, but he could move the ball a lot of the time. It remains to be seen if Manuel or Kolb will be able to keep drives alive all day for Spiller to consistently get enough touches to be a top RB. I am skeptical, not because of Spiller himself, but because of his situation.

 

[Slapdash]

I can see it now: Spiller owners will be spitting fire by Week 2 when they see that Fred Jackson is still getting a fair amount of touches, and that Spiller doesn't get all of the goal line carries, even though it appears obvious that those things will be the case.

Maybe, buy my guess is that his production will be elite enough that they won't complain a whole lot. Almost all his carries last year were from outside goaline situations and he did just fine.

I expect Spiller to Top10 with or without Fred Jackson getting a decent amount of work.

 

[Ted Mullins]

I really feel like if Spiller gets a heavy workload and some goalline he is one of those guys that can essentially win your league for you. Granted, that's pretty much the perfect storm of circumstances, but it's nice that he has already shown that he can produce on 15-18 touches a game as well.

 

[ahartig]

Spiller produced like a top 10 back last year in PPR formats with a minor injury, missing half a game, sharing the workload, and losing goaline touches.

Fast forward to this year. The new coaching regime is blatantly telling us they want to feed him the rock....... He will get the ball at a minimum 20 times per game, whether it be rushing or receptions. This is a perfect situation, I'll admit it might be a little more risky then maybe picking a Marshawn Lynch or Ray Rice, but I think Spiller has the highest ceiling of any RB this year, and a top 10 RB floor. I'll take my chances

 

[Ilov80s]

I really feel like if Spiller gets a heavy workload and some goalline he is one of those guys that can essentially win your league for you. Granted, that's pretty much the perfect storm of circumstances, but it's nice that he has already shown that he can produce on 15-18 touches a game as well.

I don't think any 1st round pick can win your league for you. The guys that win your league for you are the mid to late round picks that blow up like Alfred Morris, RG3 or Vincent Jackson last year.

 

[EBF]

Even if he stays healthy, his YPC will probably drop a bit from his lofty 2012 average. I don't think there's a back in the NFL good enough to average 6.0 yards per carry from season to season. The very best guys in the NFL are hovering right around 5.0 for their careers. Bump up his carries by 40-50 and drop the YPC by 0.5-1.2 yards and you'll probably end up with an output that's pretty close to his 2012 season.

There's definitely some untapped upside here if he can get something like 300+ touches and sustain his per-touch effectiveness. There's also some possibility of regression and/or wearing down. If you include his Clemson career in the equation, Spiller's career high in carries is 216. Doesn't mean he isn't capable of handling a massive workload, but it's fair to say that he hasn't done it at any point in his football career up to this point. At 196 pounds I'm skeptical of his suitability for a real workhorse kind of role, but at least there's Chris Johnson to point to as a guy who has done it and succeeded at that size.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Spiller's size doesn't bother me as much as his QB situation does. He makes guys miss a lot, and even when he is tackled it seems as if has a knack for positioning himself to not absorb many truly huge hits. I'll admit it's not like I watch every Bills game, but the ones I have got to see since he's been in the league that's been my perception. That mitigates some, though not all, of the "riskiness" involved due to his size.

Chalk it up to whatever you want; body control, elite vision, "elusive", etc. It just seems guys don't get great licks on him consistently. Warrick Dunn was great at it too.

Dunno if I'd be banking on CJ being RB1 overall in '13....but I don't think top 5 is crazy to expect if he can get 240-250 attempts, plus whatever he gets for receptions. He was RB6 in PPR last year on 250-ish total touches without a crazy TD total. If he can get an additional 40-50 total touches I don't see why he can't do it again even if his YPT normalizes as everyone expects it to/he isn't the primary GL option.

Non-PPR, he'll need to ramp up his TD production a bit over last year if he wants to finish top 5.

 

[Black]

no concerns or questions if CJ can be that bell cow?

Last year Spiller seemed to be most effective with 15-17 touches. I can't see how he can hold up with 30. I don't know many RBs who can touch the ball 30 times and not wear down after a few weeks. Maybe Arian Foster, ADP? Spiller might last 5 games at that rate.

BUF is going to have to mix in some FJax and TChoice to get him through the season.

I'm sure it is just coach speak. No RB can average more than 25 touches a game and remain effective/uninjured.

Peterson didn't even average 25 touches/game last year and he was used indiscriminately.

20/game is a reasonable projection since that offense is horrid, with 20% of them being catches.

I see something like 260 carries for 1300 yards, 40 catches for another 300, ~10 total TDs.

That sounds very reasonable. I just remember 15-20 touches, with 150 combined yards, maybe a TD...that's his optimum I think. And I would draft him top 5 in PPR leagues expecting that type of production.

What I don't understand is why this time of year, people are predicting otherworldly stats and projects and career years, when it just doesn't happen that often. NFL teams want to win and don't want to destroy their players. They won't run guys into the dirt and if they try, players wear down. Defenses adjust.

 

[Ted Mullins]

I really feel like if Spiller gets a heavy workload and some goalline he is one of those guys that can essentially win your league for you. Granted, that's pretty much the perfect storm of circumstances, but it's nice that he has already shown that he can produce on 15-18 touches a game as well.

I don't think any 1st round pick can win your league for you. The guys that win your league for you are the mid to late round picks that blow up like Alfred Morris, RG3 or Vincent Jackson last year.

fair point, think I got carried away with that considering he will definitely cost a 1st rounder...basically just meant if he has the perfect storm of heavy touches and goalline work, really feel he can finish 1st overall.

 

[Bishman]

C.J. Spiller will be top 10 but I don't see him being top 5 or number one overall. He will regress to his mean and Fred Jackson / E.J. Manuel will result in fewer carries for him.

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1003/why-c-j-spiller-isn-t-worth-your-first-round-pick

 

[msudaisy26]

no concerns or questions if CJ can be that bell cow?

Last year Spiller seemed to be most effective with 15-17 touches. I can't see how he can hold up with 30. I don't know many RBs who can touch the ball 30 times and not wear down after a few weeks. Maybe Arian Foster, ADP? Spiller might last 5 games at that rate. BUF is going to have to mix in some FJax and TChoice to get him through the season.

Yep. FJAX will once again resurrect a fantasy team from the dead when called upon. Choice will be added and dropped at least three times in everyone's leagues. But this is probably what will happen. I just can't see Spiller carrying the load like that. Chris Johnson is the only guy in that build-range that has done it in a long time. Takes a lot of luck to pull that off.

Spiller 5'11" 200lbs

Barry Sanders 5'8" 203lbs

Jamaal Charles 5'11" 199lbs

Curtis Martin 5'11" 209lbs

Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200lbs

Warrick Dunn 5'9" 180lbs

Tiki Barber 5'10" 200lbs

All players around his size that carried the load and were pretty healthy for most of their career. Injuries should be the last thing people are worried about with Spiller

 

[Biabreakable]

The Bills ran 84 offensive plays in the 1st preseason game. Much of the success was against a Colts 2nd string defense (that doesn't have much on it's 1st string) but still that is a lot of plays.

The Bills averaged 61.4 plays/game in 2012 but this up tempo offense if they stick with it might be able to get that number closer to 70 plays a game. I am trying to keep an open mind about that but in the end I think they have a modest improvement to something like 65-66 plays/game with close to the same run/pass ratio of 46/64.

2011 391 1921 12 4.9
2012 442 2217 12 5.0

I think they could increase overall rushing plays especially if they do give Spiller the ball more frequently. I am guessing they run 430-480 running plays.

The Loss of Guard Levittre could be a step backward in the run blocking, but this has been 2 years of pretty outstanding performance. The lead RB has been either Jackson (2011 170 carries) or Spiller (2012 207 carries) with the other chipping in more than 100, the QB running over 50 and also some carries from Choice and/or Zach Brown. Brown intriuges me somewhat and I need to do some reading about him. I do think the 3rd RB here has a chance to take over for Jackson if he falters. So how I am seeing that is there will be 140-180 carries for Jackson/3rd RB, 50-70 for the QB so 190-250 from the total would leave 180-290 carries for Spiller or a median of 235. I do expect this to be higher than 235 if Spiller is healthy just accounting for variance and that we have not seen Spiller with that heavy a workload yet.

I have doubts about Jackson staying effective all season at age 32 but even if he falls off I still see one of the other RB picking up more carries to replace him.

Spiller 180-290 carries 4.8-5.4ypc 864-1566 yards 5-10 TD 35-60 receptions @ 8.3 ypc 290-498 yards 1-3TD or 1154-2064 yards 6-13 TD

I feel that this ypc projection is too high and the higher Spillers carries the more likely the ypc is to go down. So maybe the rushing yards will look more like 280 carries at 4.4ypc would be 1232 yards which is still close to the median yardage range of my projection which is 1215. So I feel like I have captured that type of scenario here as well. I really do not see him having less than 200 carries unless he is injured and if all goes well he should clear 235 I think. I just am not sure that the ypc won't also go down as those carries go up, it likely will, I just see nothing in his past performance to project him for less than 4.8

 

[Khy]

no concerns or questions if CJ can be that bell cow?

Last year Spiller seemed to be most effective with 15-17 touches. I can't see how he can hold up with 30. I don't know many RBs who can touch the ball 30 times and not wear down after a few weeks. Maybe Arian Foster, ADP? Spiller might last 5 games at that rate. BUF is going to have to mix in some FJax and TChoice to get him through the season.

Yep. FJAX will once again resurrect a fantasy team from the dead when called upon. Choice will be added and dropped at least three times in everyone's leagues. But this is probably what will happen. I just can't see Spiller carrying the load like that. Chris Johnson is the only guy in that build-range that has done it in a long time. Takes a lot of luck to pull that off.

Spiller 5'11" 200lbs

Barry Sanders 5'8" 203lbs

Jamaal Charles 5'11" 199lbs

Curtis Martin 5'11" 209lbs

Thurman Thomas 5'10" 200lbs

Warrick Dunn 5'9" 180lbs

Tiki Barber 5'10" 200lbs

All players around his size that carried the load and were pretty healthy for most of their career. Injuries should be the last thing people are worried about with Spiller

Shhh... you'll upset the masses that think Spiller, David Wilson and Tavon Austin are too small and will only get injured now that they're at the NFL level.

 

[Anarchy99]

C.J. Spiller will be top 10 but I don't see him being top 5 or number one overall. He will regress to his mean and Fred Jackson / E.J. Manuel will result in fewer carries for him.

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1003/why-c-j-spiller-isn-t-worth-your-first-round-pick

Sure, any back will not grade out to a first round grade when you only project him to 200 carries on the season, which is essentially what he had last year. So the article basically assumes Spiller will have the same number of touches as last year, but he will be less effective in those touches. I agree that he won't average 6 yards a carry. But that will balance out wih an increased workload. However, what happens if he gets 75 or 100 more touches? THAT'S why I think he is worth a first round pick and has a ton of upside.

 

[Biabreakable]

I certainly see the upside for Spiller. I am still trying to decide if Manuel will perhaps run more than the 50-70ra I gave him. I think that is possible. It could be part of how they replace some of Jackson's carries if he falls of. So that is something I am still pondering, as well as the impact of the up tempo if they do stick with that all season.

The main thing that makes me uncomfortable about Spiller is the high variance of outcomes I can see for him. If all goes well he should be up there with the top RB, but the downside of possibly still limited workload makes his floor pretty low. Lower than I expect from most of the other top RB.

I do think he is one of the most talented RB in the game, which that talent overall has gotten a lot better due to last years rookies and likely several of this years rookies as well as some veterans coming back healthy. In some ways his career path thus far has been bit like a young version of DeAngelo Williams. The upside is sky high but the downside would be if his carries are still closer to 200 than 300.

I still have a lot of doubts about how effective this offense will be. Fitzpatrick threw 24 then 16 interceptions the last 2 years. If their QBs turn the ball over more than this (possible) it will be hard for them to make much progress as an offense. Falling behind in games will force them to abandon the run. I might consider them throwing to Spiller more than I have right now but if they do that I would expect the ypc to come down some with the defense looking for that more. How well their QB plays is going to have a big impact on Spillers performance. That unknown makes me uncomfortable about him as a 1st round pick despite the very high upside.

 

[Anarchy99]

I certainly see the upside for Spiller. I am still trying to decide if Manuel will perhaps run more than the 50-70ra I gave him. I think that is possible. It could be part of how they replace some of Jackson's carries if he falls of. So that is something I am still pondering, as well as the impact of the up tempo if they do stick with that all season.

The main thing that makes me uncomfortable about Spiller is the high variance of outcomes I can see for him. If all goes well he should be up there with the top RB, but the downside of possibly still limited workload makes his floor pretty low. Lower than I expect from most of the other top RB.

I do think he is one of the most talented RB in the game, which that talent overall has gotten a lot better due to last years rookies and likely several of this years rookies as well as some veterans coming back healthy. In some ways his career path thus far has been bit like a young version of DeAngelo Williams. The upside is sky high but the downside would be if his carries are still closer to 200 than 300.

I still have a lot of doubts about how effective this offense will be. Fitzpatrick threw 24 then 16 interceptions the last 2 years. If their QBs turn the ball over more than this (possible) it will be hard for them to make much progress as an offense. Falling behind in games will force them to abandon the run. I might consider them throwing to Spiller more than I have right now but if they do that I would expect the ypc to come down some with the defense looking for that more. How well their QB plays is going to have a big impact on Spillers performance. That unknown makes me uncomfortable about him as a 1st round pick despite the very high upside.

I think you may be over thinking this. The past few years, the BUF offense was very mediocre if not poor. Worst case, this year, they are mediocre and poor. They were bottom 10 in passing and turnovers last year. And we already know how Spiller did in a weak offense.

It stands to reason that he won't have a 6.0 ypc this year, but with more carries that should more than make up for a lower ypc. I personally don't think Jackson will be a huge factor in pilfering much production from Spiller. All teams have back ups or role players that get worked into the mix. That's how I see F-Jax's role from here on out. I don't think he will see many games with many touches as long as Spiller is healthy.

If anything, the one knock I would have against Spiller is that the BUF offense may not score a ton of TD, so his scoring opportunities may be limited. But that's probably the one thing I can see as a negative.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Fred Jackson has looked pretty bad in training camp so far. He's not going to steal a lot of carries from Spiller.

And while the QB position is certainly a question mark, the WR talent on this team is pretty sick. I think people are going to be stunned by what Woods, Goodwin and Graham bring to the table this year along with stalwart Stevie Johnson. There are going to be a lot of big plays in Buffalo this year. And with the ability of Kolb and Manuel to actually throw deep, there's going to be a heck of a lot of room for Spiller to run. You're going to see a lot of 2 deep safeties and CBs playing 10 yards off the line.

 

[Ted Mullins]

FWIW, I do think that if Manuel runs some and is effective, that should help Spiller on an efficiency basis - I read an article about it before but can't seem to find it, but the gist of it was that running QBs boosted their RB's YPC. Not saying I think his YPC will be even more ridiculous than last year, but I do think Manuel running some could actually be beneficial.

 

[Kenny Powers]

And while the QB position is certainly a question mark, the WR talent on this team is pretty sick. I think people are going to be stunned by what Woods, Goodwin and Graham bring to the table this year along with stalwart Stevie Johnson. There are going to be a lot of big plays in Buffalo this year. And with the ability of Kolb and Manuel to actually throw deep, there's going to be a heck of a lot of room for Spiller to run. You're going to see a lot of 2 deep safeties and CBs playing 10 yards off the line.

Yeah, the more I think about it despite BUF having question marks at QB, their WRs could be dangerous this year. Between the new guys and Spiller, Im starting to think Stevie might be a real steal right now. IIRC, he had a groin or hammy issue last preseason yet still played 16 games. Has played all 16 games the last 3 years and been very consistent stat wise, with his breakout year being his biggest solely because of TDs. Hasnt finished lower than WR21 in the last 3 years, yet his ADP right now is WR31 and dropping. Im high on a lot of the WRs going around him (DJax, Hilton, Austin, Boldin) but I think Im going to start looking at Stevie there as well.

On the other hand, if this hammy does linger and prevent him from missing time this year, I think that puts a lot of pressure on the young WRs to produce and certainly makes it harder for the QB losing his best WR. Whats the latest on his injury?

 

[GroveDiesel]

And while the QB position is certainly a question mark, the WR talent on this team is pretty sick. I think people are going to be stunned by what Woods, Goodwin and Graham bring to the table this year along with stalwart Stevie Johnson. There are going to be a lot of big plays in Buffalo this year. And with the ability of Kolb and Manuel to actually throw deep, there's going to be a heck of a lot of room for Spiller to run. You're going to see a lot of 2 deep safeties and CBs playing 10 yards off the line.

Yeah, the more I think about it despite BUF having question marks at QB, their WRs could be dangerous this year. Between the new guys and Spiller, Im starting to think Stevie might be a real steal right now. IIRC, he had a groin or hammy issue last preseason yet still played 16 games. Has played all 16 games the last 3 years and been very consistent stat wise, with his breakout year being his biggest solely because of TDs. Hasnt finished lower than WR21 in the last 3 years, yet his ADP right now is WR31 and dropping. Im high on a lot of the WRs going around him (DJax, Hilton, Austin, Boldin) but I think Im going to start looking at Stevie there as well.

On the other hand, if this hammy does linger and prevent him from missing time this year, I think that puts a lot of pressure on the young WRs to produce and certainly makes it harder for the QB losing his best WR. Whats the latest on his injury?

Still not practicing, but does some light work on the side. I think they're still targeting preseason Week 3 or 4. He'll definitely be back by Week 1 barring an aggravation.

 

[Biabreakable]

Fred Jackson has looked pretty bad in training camp so far. He's not going to steal a lot of carries from Spiller.

And while the QB position is certainly a question mark, the WR talent on this team is pretty sick. I think people are going to be stunned by what Woods, Goodwin and Graham bring to the table this year along with stalwart Stevie Johnson. There are going to be a lot of big plays in Buffalo this year. And with the ability of Kolb and Manuel to actually throw deep, there's going to be a heck of a lot of room for Spiller to run. You're going to see a lot of 2 deep safeties and CBs playing 10 yards off the line.

Choice seems limited to a pretty small role so if there is going to be a significant COP to Spiller who would that be if not Jackson?

I agree that the receivers should leave a lot of open space for both Spiller and Manuel to operate. I like the Bills QB to possibly be a very good value late in drafts because of the rushing potential and the up tempo.

The Bills are starting a lot of rookies however including their HC. There is a lot of unknowns, which is kind of why I have been holding off taking a deeper look at this situation until more recently.

 

[EBF]

And while the QB position is certainly a question mark, the WR talent on this team is pretty sick. I think people are going to be stunned by what Woods, Goodwin and Graham bring to the table this year along with stalwart Stevie Johnson. There are going to be a lot of big plays in Buffalo this year. And with the ability of Kolb and Manuel to actually throw deep, there's going to be a heck of a lot of room for Spiller to run. You're going to see a lot of 2 deep safeties and CBs playing 10 yards off the line.

Yeah, the more I think about it despite BUF having question marks at QB, their WRs could be dangerous this year. Between the new guys and Spiller, Im starting to think Stevie might be a real steal right now. IIRC, he had a groin or hammy issue last preseason yet still played 16 games. Has played all 16 games the last 3 years and been very consistent stat wise, with his breakout year being his biggest solely because of TDs. Hasnt finished lower than WR21 in the last 3 years, yet his ADP right now is WR31 and dropping. Im high on a lot of the WRs going around him (DJax, Hilton, Austin, Boldin) but I think Im going to start looking at Stevie there as well.

On the other hand, if this hammy does linger and prevent him from missing time this year, I think that puts a lot of pressure on the young WRs to produce and certainly makes it harder for the QB losing his best WR. Whats the latest on his injury?

Still not practicing, but does some light work on the side. I think they're still targeting preseason Week 3 or 4. He'll definitely be back by Week 1 barring an aggravation.

What scares me about Steve Johnson is that his stats have been propped up by a huge number of targets. Last season he ranked 9th in the NFL in targets, but just 18th in yards and receptions. In other words, he got a lot of looks, but he didn't really do much with them. If Graham, Woods, Goodwin, and Rogers are at all viable then they could eventually eat into his pie, which will really hurt his FF value. I had the opportunity to get him for a reasonable price in a dynasty league recently and passed for this reason. I think he's just a decent player who actually benefited by being on a team that had no other options.

 

[RushHour]

I think the higher tempo offense they are going to run raises his floor significantly, and makes him a much less risky pick that many are saying. Jackson won't be anywhere near the factor he has been in the past in terms of splitting carries. The concern would be the overall effectiveness of the offense with Manuel and ability to sustain drives, get in scoring position etc. But even so, I think some are underrating just how different this offense will look this season and Spiller is going to be the focal point.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

I think the higher tempo offense they are going to run raises his floor significantly, and makes him a much less risky pick that many are saying. Jackson won't be anywhere near the factor he has been in the past in terms of splitting carries. The concern would be the overall effectiveness of the offense with Manuel and ability to sustain drives, get in scoring position etc. But even so, I think some are underrating just how different this offense will look this season and Spiller is going to be the focal point.

yeah, even if Jackson gets 150 carries that still leaves a TON of carries for Spiller in this new offense.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

 

[VikingFrog]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

Cam Newton has really amped up his running backs.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

Cam Newton has really amped up his running backs.

Cam Newton is the number one RB option in Carolina. Besides, Carolina is the mentally handicapped system in the NFL. It makes no sense. Their RB's performed well above NFL average. They just got an absurdly small amount of carries.

 

[silentcoach]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

Cam Newton has really amped up his running backs.

See A.Morris, See Lynch, See Gore after Kaepernick. Good enough for you?

As to your point, the problem is they do not have ONE back, but 1 million backs. Carolina, I have no idea what they are thinking.

 

[humpback]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

It's only a huge bonus if he plays well- if he's bad, it's a huge negative for Spiller. Also, he's not really a "running" QB.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

It's only a huge bonus if he plays well- if he's bad, it's a huge negative for Spiller. Also, he's not really a "running" QB.

I very much think he is a running qb. He's very effective at it. I'm sure Maronne will use him in a way that that has him reach success in the quickest manner possible. Also, as is typical for big, fast QB's that know they have skill at running the ball they will run it when passing plays break down quicker than they are used to. That's not good for QB's if you want to win games but it is really good for fantasy rb's.

 

[humpback]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

It's only a huge bonus if he plays well- if he's bad, it's a huge negative for Spiller. Also, he's not really a "running" QB.

I very much think he is a running qb. He's very effective at it. I'm sure Maronne will use him in a way that that has him reach success in the quickest manner possible. Also, as is typical for big, fast QB's that know they have skill at running the ball they will run it when passing plays break down quicker than they are used to. That's not good for QB's if you want to win games but it is really good for fantasy rb's.

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.

QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

It's only a huge bonus if he plays well- if he's bad, it's a huge negative for Spiller. Also, he's not really a "running" QB.

I very much think he is a running qb. He's very effective at it. I'm sure Maronne will use him in a way that that has him reach success in the quickest manner possible. Also, as is typical for big, fast QB's that know they have skill at running the ball they will run it when passing plays break down quicker than they are used to. That's not good for QB's if you want to win games but it is really good for fantasy rb's.

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.

QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That's interesting. I'll admit that I never followed Manuel because I never expected him to be drafted so high but every time I see a college highlight it shows him breaking long runs. His video scouting report by scouts inc claims he is a skilled runner. He basically was a running weapon as a freshman and sophomore.

In regards to your second point, recent stats show you are wrong. Those QB's boost their RB's numbers by a good margin. When defenses fear the unpredictable they are forced to spy the QB. Also, we know Spiller is getting the ball no matter what the score is. It happened last year and he was effective at it. Maronne says it will be that and more this year. Besides, Spiller is not really the guy that is going to make a huge living milking a lead.. He will do that, but I believe there are other RB's on the roster that suits that role better. Leads are not exactly a sure thing to promote fantasy points with Spiller. CJ is a home run guy. A guy to get quick chunks of yards and score quick. The perfect come from behind back, if there is such a thing.

 

[Biabreakable]

While I agree that Manuels rushing yards/carry in college look bad, he did run the ball over 100 times in his last 2 seasons as the starter for the Seminoles. Most draftnik blurbs mention him as a dual threat passer. His completion percentage was pretty outstanding though some still question his reads and accuracy.

Here is a report on him by Charlie Campbell of WalterFootball-

Strengths:

• Dual-Threat Quarterback
• Powerful arm
• Excellent mobility
• Size and strength
• Escapability
• Experienced
• Quick release

Weaknesses:

• Not a natural passer
• Decision-making
• Field vision
• Struggles to work through progressions
• Runs to quickly
• Spotty accuracy
• Can panic at times
• Didn't play as well against good defenses
• Summary: Entering Manuel's senior season, there were some that were projecting him to be a top-10 pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. The reason for the lofty projections was Manuel's dynamite skill set. He is big, strong, mobile and has a cannon for an arm. Manuel's elite arm strength and athleticism gives him all the physical potential an NFL team could ask for. However, he has major issues as a passer and has never developed into a high first-round pick despite the athletic ability to be that good.
• Manuel came to Florida State with a lot of hype. Many believed that he would be the next great Seminoles quarterback and lead a resurrection of the once mighty Florida State program. Manuel spent his first two seasons as a backup to Christian Ponder. When Ponder missed time with injuries, Manuel received some playing time. He completed 67 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his two seasons of limited action. Manuel also ran for 366 yards and three scores.
• The expectations were high for Manuel as he took over the starting job as a junior in 2011. Manuel completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,817 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He ran for 411 yards and four touchdowns. Manuel threw for over 300 yards twice, against N.C. State and Charleston Southern. He had some struggles against Oklahoma, Wake Forest and Florida.
• The senior improved as a passer over 2011, but he played a very easy schedule. Manuel completed 68 percent of his passes for 3,397 yards, 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He ran the ball well for the Seminoles, scoring four rushing touchdowns.
• Manuel had an ugly game against Florida and its tough defense. He had three interceptions, fumbled the ball away and took a horrible sack. It was a meltdown performance that put doubts into his improved play from earlier in the season.
• NFL sources who watch Florida State closely have told WalterFootball.com that Manuel is not a natural pocket passer. They don't feel he is as accurate as his completion percentage indicates. They went on to say that Manuel is frustrating to watch because he has all the makings to be a special quarterback, but is not utilizing his full potential.
• The scheme that the Seminoles run also came under criticism. The view is that it is extremely basic and does not have Manuel well-prepared to run an NFL offense. Our sources believe that Manuel too often looks to run when his first-read is covered rather than quickly looking to his second and third options.
• As a passer, Manuel needs to work on his touch passes. He occasionally puts nice air under a ball, but too often throws everything on a line. Manuel needs to become a passer rather than a thrower.
• Manuel is going to need a lot of work at the next level on the practice field and in the film room before he is ready to be a starter. There is no doubt that Manuel has the athletic skill set to be a special player, but he will require developmental time in the NFL.
• Manuel had an inconsistent Senior Bowl performance, but overall is helped by a weak quarterback class. He looks most likely to go on the second day of the 2013 NFL Draft. It isn't out of the question for a team to reach on him late in the first round or for Manuel to fall to the fourth round. His stock is extremely fluid. http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2013emanuel.php

The Cleveland Browns head coach compared E.J. Manuel to former No. 1 pick Cam Newton. http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/4/21/4248858/2013-nfl-draft-ej-manuel-cam-newton

I think he is a promising player. At the same time he is a rookie, playing with a lot of rookies, with a rookie HC. I expect a lot of turnovers honestly. The Bills defense has a long way to go as well. I think these are reasons to be concerned about Spillers situation which is not as good as most of the other top RB. That being said the Vikings struggles with the passing game last season did not stop Peterson from being amazing, so I think Spiller can overcome the less than ideal support around him as well. He is a very good player.

 

[The Duff Man]

Spiller is going to crush it if he stays healthy. With their new speed at WR and a QB that can actually hit the deep ball (maybe?) he should be open for more short passes/screens and have more space to run also.

Also a good candidate for a lot of huge garbage time fantasy points if the D cant turn it around. If they can...he will get more carries running out the clock. Win/win

They liked to line him up at WR last year. If they do the same and use the speed to clear out the middle he could pile up big receiving numbers.

 

[humpback]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

It's only a huge bonus if he plays well- if he's bad, it's a huge negative for Spiller. Also, he's not really a "running" QB.

I very much think he is a running qb. He's very effective at it. I'm sure Maronne will use him in a way that that has him reach success in the quickest manner possible. Also, as is typical for big, fast QB's that know they have skill at running the ball they will run it when passing plays break down quicker than they are used to. That's not good for QB's if you want to win games but it is really good for fantasy rb's.

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.

QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That's interesting. I'll admit that I never followed Manuel because I never expected him to be drafted so high but every time I see a college highlight it shows him breaking long runs. His video scouting report by scouts inc claims he is a skilled runner. He basically was a running weapon as a freshman and sophomore.

In regards to your second point, recent stats show you are wrong. Those QB's boost their RB's numbers by a good margin. When defenses fear the unpredictable they are forced to spy the QB. Also, we know Spiller is getting the ball no matter what the score is. It happened last year and he was effective at it. Maronne says it will be that and more this year. Besides, Spiller is not really the guy that is going to make a huge living milking a lead.. He will do that, but I believe there are other RB's on the roster that suits that role better. Leads are not exactly a sure thing to promote fantasy points with Spiller. CJ is a home run guy. A guy to get quick chunks of yards and score quick. The perfect come from behind back, if there is such a thing.

He is a mobile QB, which is great, but he isn't going to take games over with his feet the way guys like Cam, RGIII, Kaep, Wilson, etc. can. I don't consider him a "running" QB by any stretch- he's a QB who can run a bit.

RBs need touches and scoring opportunities to boost their value. Like I said, if the QB is effective running the ball, moving the chains and generating more scoring opportunities, that is good for the RB. When they are not, it is not. Winning generally is better for RBs- Spiller averaged 4 pts. per game more in wins than in losses last year (ppr).

 

[humpback]

While I agree that Manuels rushing yards/carry in college look bad, he did run the ball over 100 times in his last 2 seasons as the starter for the Seminoles. Most draftnik blurbs mention him as a dual threat passer. His completion percentage was pretty outstanding though some still question his reads and accuracy.

......................

The Cleveland Browns head coach compared E.J. Manuel to former No. 1 pick Cam Newton. http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/4/21/4248858/2013-nfl-draft-ej-manuel-cam-newton

While stats don't always tell the whole story, here are some rushing numbers to look at:

Carries Yards YPC TDs

296 833 2.8 10

298 827 2.8 11

264 1473 5.6 20

The top are the career numbers for Christian Ponder at Florida St. The middle are the career numbers for EJ Manuel at Florida St. The bottom is Cam Newton's junior year.

 

[msudaisy26]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

It's only a huge bonus if he plays well- if he's bad, it's a huge negative for Spiller. Also, he's not really a "running" QB.

I very much think he is a running qb. He's very effective at it. I'm sure Maronne will use him in a way that that has him reach success in the quickest manner possible. Also, as is typical for big, fast QB's that know they have skill at running the ball they will run it when passing plays break down quicker than they are used to. That's not good for QB's if you want to win games but it is really good for fantasy rb's.

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That stat is misleading because in college sacks count against a quarterbacks rush yards and a teams rushing total.

 

[humpback]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

It's only a huge bonus if he plays well- if he's bad, it's a huge negative for Spiller. Also, he's not really a "running" QB.

I very much think he is a running qb. He's very effective at it. I'm sure Maronne will use him in a way that that has him reach success in the quickest manner possible. Also, as is typical for big, fast QB's that know they have skill at running the ball they will run it when passing plays break down quicker than they are used to. That's not good for QB's if you want to win games but it is really good for fantasy rb's.

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That stat is misleading because in college sacks count against a quarterbacks rush yards and a teams rushing total.

Do they only count against Manuel or is it the same for all QBs?

 

[Steve Tasker]

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That stat is misleading because in college sacks count against a quarterbacks rush yards and a teams rushing total.

Do they only count against Manuel or is it the same for all QBs?

I was actually coming to post the same thing. In college, sacks are considered negative rushing yards and a rushing attempt, unlike in the NFL.

In 2011, Manuel had 110 carries for 151 yards, but 33 of those were sacks for ?? negative yards. In 2012, he had 103-310 with 26 sacks. These are per Yahoo. So it looks like he had 77 true rushes in both 2011 and 2012, but I have no idea how many yards they were for.

 

[Steve Tasker]

I was actually coming to post the same thing. In college, sacks are considered negative rushing yards and a rushing attempt, unlike in the NFL.

In 2011, Manuel had 110 carries for 151 yards, but 33 of those were sacks for ?? negative yards. In 2012, he had 103-310 with 26 sacks. These are per Yahoo. So it looks like he had 77 true rushes in both 2011 and 2012, but I have no idea how many yards they were for.

I think I may have found it.

2012 - sacked 33 times for -230 yards. Added to rushing totals to compare to NFL metrics: 77 rushes, 381 yards = 4.95 ypc

2012 - sacked 26 times for -183 yards. Added to rushing totals to compare to NFL metrics: 77 rushes, 493 yards = 6.41 ypc

I think this is right? Or close to it?

 

[humpback]

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That stat is misleading because in college sacks count against a quarterbacks rush yards and a teams rushing total.

Do they only count against Manuel or is it the same for all QBs?

I was actually coming to post the same thing. In college, sacks are considered negative rushing yards and a rushing attempt, unlike in the NFL.

In 2011, Manuel had 110 carries for 151 yards, but 33 of those were sacks for ?? negative yards. In 2012, he had 103-310 with 26 sacks. These are per Yahoo. So it looks like he had 77 true rushes in both 2011 and 2012, but I have no idea how many yards they were for.

Yes, but obviously they are counted that way for everyone, so you'd have to go back and do the same calculations for all QBs.

This shouldn't be controversial- his rushing numbers are a lot closer to Christian Ponder than they are Cam Newton (or any of the "running" QBs).