CJ Spiller workload (1 Viewer)

[Chaka]

Two pages and only one mention (that was ignored) of the fact that Buffalo offensive line got much worse this offseason.

Losing Levitre is a major blow and while Glen (LT) and Wood © are good enough, Colin Brown (LG), Kraig Urbik (RG) and Erik Pears (RT) are just warm bodies.

I like CJ a ton but if: 1) the QB has no time to throw those field stretching passes everyone is hoping for and 2) there are no holes to run through and 3) he isn't the goal line guy then CJ might not be that much better even with the increased work load.

He already put up 1,703 total yards and 8 TDs, I am not sure how much more people can really expect on that team.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Two pages and only one mention (that was ignored) of the fact that Buffalo offensive line got much worse this offseason.

Losing Levitre is a major blow and while Glen (LT) and Wood © are good enough, Colin Brown (LG), Kraig Urbik (RG) and Erik Pears (RT) are just warm bodies.

I like CJ a ton but if: 1) the QB has no time to throw those field stretching passes everyone is hoping for and 2) there are no holes to run through and 3) he isn't the goal line guy then CJ might not be that much better even with the increased work load.

He already put up 1,703 total yards and 8 TDs, I am not sure how much more people can really expect on that team.

The O-line actually wasn't all that good at run blocking last year. Thr advanced stats at both PFF and Football Outsiders back that up. And while Levitre is a very proficient pass blocker, he's merely adequate or good as a run blocker. He rarely makes it to the next level and you won't see him pancaking guys. Brown or Legurski will be significant steps back in pass blocking, but may be just as good or possibly even better run blockers.

My bet is on Hairston taking over at RT at some point. He's much better than Pears, he's just been hurt the entirety of camp.

And therein is the biggest variable. Wood missed significant time, Pears and Hairston both missed time and Glenn missed time last year. IF those guys stay healthy, the O-lime should actually be overall better. If there are more than one injury, or Wood or Glenn are out for significant time, then things could get ugly.

 

[Steve Tasker]

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That stat is misleading because in college sacks count against a quarterbacks rush yards and a teams rushing total.

Do they only count against Manuel or is it the same for all QBs?

I was actually coming to post the same thing. In college, sacks are considered negative rushing yards and a rushing attempt, unlike in the NFL.

In 2011, Manuel had 110 carries for 151 yards, but 33 of those were sacks for ?? negative yards. In 2012, he had 103-310 with 26 sacks. These are per Yahoo. So it looks like he had 77 true rushes in both 2011 and 2012, but I have no idea how many yards they were for.

Yes, but obviously they are counted that way for everyone, so you'd have to go back and do the same calculations for all QBs.

This shouldn't be controversial- his rushing numbers are a lot closer to Christian Ponder than they are Cam Newton (or any of the "running" QBs).

Sure. I never said Manuel was a "running QB". I've never considered him as such....I think he runs too upright and isn't built to take a pounding like a guy like Newton or Roethlisberger could. He should be, and appears to be - from the FSU games I've seen and his brief Bills career - a pass-first QB.

My point was just that your comment "He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career)" was a bit misleading. Those numbers are pretty poor for an NFL player using NFL metrics (since we're having an NFL discussion)....but it should be pointed out that by using NFL metrics, his "NFL ypc" would be 4.95 / 6.41.

 

[GroveDiesel]

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.

QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That stat is misleading because in college sacks count against a quarterbacks rush yards and a teams rushing total.

Do they only count against Manuel or is it the same for all QBs?

I was actually coming to post the same thing. In college, sacks are considered negative rushing yards and a rushing attempt, unlike in the NFL.In 2011, Manuel had 110 carries for 151 yards, but 33 of those were sacks for ?? negative yards. In 2012, he had 103-310 with 26 sacks. These are per Yahoo. So it looks like he had 77 true rushes in both 2011 and 2012, but I have no idea how many yards they were for.

Yes, but obviously they are counted that way for everyone, so you'd have to go back and do the same calculations for all QBs.This shouldn't be controversial- his rushing numbers are a lot closer to Christian Ponder than they are Cam Newton (or any of the "running" QBs).

Sure. I never said Manuel was a "running QB". I've never considered him as such....I think he runs too upright and isn't built to take a pounding like a guy like Newton or Roethlisberger could. He should be, and appears to be - from the FSU games I've seen and his brief Bills career - a pass-first QB.My point was just that your comment "He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career)" was a bit misleading. Those numbers are pretty poor for an NFL player using NFL metrics (since we're having an NFL discussion)....but it should be pointed out that by using NFL metrics, his "NFL ypc" would be 4.95 / 6.41.

It should also be pointed out that FSU's O-line was horrifically bad, especially early in the season.

 

[msudaisy26]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

It's only a huge bonus if he plays well- if he's bad, it's a huge negative for Spiller. Also, he's not really a "running" QB.

I very much think he is a running qb. He's very effective at it. I'm sure Maronne will use him in a way that that has him reach success in the quickest manner possible. Also, as is typical for big, fast QB's that know they have skill at running the ball they will run it when passing plays break down quicker than they are used to. That's not good for QB's if you want to win games but it is really good for fantasy rb's.

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That stat is misleading because in college sacks count against a quarterbacks rush yards and a teams rushing total.

Do they only count against Manuel or is it the same for all QBs?

Please tell me this was a bad trolling attempt or I will lose faith in all humanity

 

[msudaisy26]

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.

QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That stat is misleading because in college sacks count against a quarterbacks rush yards and a teams rushing total.

Do they only count against Manuel or is it the same for all QBs?

I was actually coming to post the same thing. In college, sacks are considered negative rushing yards and a rushing attempt, unlike in the NFL.In 2011, Manuel had 110 carries for 151 yards, but 33 of those were sacks for ?? negative yards. In 2012, he had 103-310 with 26 sacks. These are per Yahoo. So it looks like he had 77 true rushes in both 2011 and 2012, but I have no idea how many yards they were for.

Yes, but obviously they are counted that way for everyone, so you'd have to go back and do the same calculations for all QBs.This shouldn't be controversial- his rushing numbers are a lot closer to Christian Ponder than they are Cam Newton (or any of the "running" QBs).

Sure. I never said Manuel was a "running QB". I've never considered him as such....I think he runs too upright and isn't built to take a pounding like a guy like Newton or Roethlisberger could. He should be, and appears to be - from the FSU games I've seen and his brief Bills career - a pass-first QB.My point was just that your comment "He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career)" was a bit misleading. Those numbers are pretty poor for an NFL player using NFL metrics (since we're having an NFL discussion)....but it should be pointed out that by using NFL metrics, his "NFL ypc" would be 4.95 / 6.41.

Cam Newton is the only quarterback in the league built to take that kind of punishment.

 

[humpback]

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That stat is misleading because in college sacks count against a quarterbacks rush yards and a teams rushing total.

Do they only count against Manuel or is it the same for all QBs?

I was actually coming to post the same thing. In college, sacks are considered negative rushing yards and a rushing attempt, unlike in the NFL.

In 2011, Manuel had 110 carries for 151 yards, but 33 of those were sacks for ?? negative yards. In 2012, he had 103-310 with 26 sacks. These are per Yahoo. So it looks like he had 77 true rushes in both 2011 and 2012, but I have no idea how many yards they were for.

Yes, but obviously they are counted that way for everyone, so you'd have to go back and do the same calculations for all QBs.

This shouldn't be controversial- his rushing numbers are a lot closer to Christian Ponder than they are Cam Newton (or any of the "running" QBs).

Sure. I never said Manuel was a "running QB". I've never considered him as such....I think he runs too upright and isn't built to take a pounding like a guy like Newton or Roethlisberger could. He should be, and appears to be - from the FSU games I've seen and his brief Bills career - a pass-first QB.

My point was just that your comment "He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career)" was a bit misleading. Those numbers are pretty poor for an NFL player using NFL metrics (since we're having an NFL discussion)....but it should be pointed out that by using NFL metrics, his "NFL ypc" would be 4.95 / 6.41.

You didn't say he was, but the poster I responded to did. That's how this discussion began.

Those numbers aren't misleading if you compare them to other college QBs- he wasn't "very effective" (again, as the other poster said) when you compare him with actual "running" QBs. If you want to adjust for sacks, that's fine, but he'll look relatively the same when you also adjust the numbers for everyone else. They are pretty poor for a college "running" QB (if you think he was one).

Another point- there are no Dukes or Savannah States on his schedule anymore, so it would probably be better to call those something like "adjusted rushing stats" instead of anything with "NFL" in it.

 

[cvnpoka]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

Cam Newton has really amped up his running backs.

297 carries at 5.4 ypc in 2011

266 at ~4ypc last yr

 

[humpback]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

It's only a huge bonus if he plays well- if he's bad, it's a huge negative for Spiller. Also, he's not really a "running" QB.

I very much think he is a running qb. He's very effective at it. I'm sure Maronne will use him in a way that that has him reach success in the quickest manner possible. Also, as is typical for big, fast QB's that know they have skill at running the ball they will run it when passing plays break down quicker than they are used to. That's not good for QB's if you want to win games but it is really good for fantasy rb's.

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That stat is misleading because in college sacks count against a quarterbacks rush yards and a teams rushing total.

Do they only count against Manuel or is it the same for all QBs?

Please tell me this was a bad trolling attempt or I will lose faith in all humanity

Ditto.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am not saying Chud is right, just throwing that out there that people do consider Manuel a mobile QB. The Bills may use him that way. I do not know how good he will be as a runner though. Fitzpatrick did a decent job running the ball and I don't think anyone considers him much of a scrambler either. The important thing is 1st downs. Manuel doesn't need to be Cam Newton to get some 1st downs. Which will allow them to keep giving Spiller the ball.

 

[Chaka]

Two pages and only one mention (that was ignored) of the fact that Buffalo offensive line got much worse this offseason.

Losing Levitre is a major blow and while Glen (LT) and Wood © are good enough, Colin Brown (LG), Kraig Urbik (RG) and Erik Pears (RT) are just warm bodies.

I like CJ a ton but if: 1) the QB has no time to throw those field stretching passes everyone is hoping for and 2) there are no holes to run through and 3) he isn't the goal line guy then CJ might not be that much better even with the increased work load.

He already put up 1,703 total yards and 8 TDs, I am not sure how much more people can really expect on that team.

The O-line actually wasn't all that good at run blocking last year. Thr advanced stats at both PFF and Football Outsiders back that up. And while Levitre is a very proficient pass blocker, he's merely adequate or good as a run blocker. He rarely makes it to the next level and you won't see him pancaking guys. Brown or Legurski will be significant steps back in pass blocking, but may be just as good or possibly even better run blockers.

My bet is on Hairston taking over at RT at some point. He's much better than Pears, he's just been hurt the entirety of camp.

And therein is the biggest variable. Wood missed significant time, Pears and Hairston both missed time and Glenn missed time last year. IF those guys stay healthy, the O-lime should actually be overall better. If there are more than one injury, or Wood or Glenn are out for significant time, then things could get ugly.

But the O-line was better last year, that really cannot be argued. I am also not sure that Hariston is more than a warm body either. And even if Levitre was only a better pass blocker it still speaks to the fact that if the QB can't set up for the deep throws everyone is hoping will soften the middle of the opposing D then CJ will not benefit from seeing 7 in the box.

I love CJ, he appears to be a rare talent, but I am not sure if expectations much beyond what we saw last year, which were still excellent numbers, are realistic. In particular I do not see much, if any, bump in his TD numbers.

 

[msudaisy26]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

It's only a huge bonus if he plays well- if he's bad, it's a huge negative for Spiller. Also, he's not really a "running" QB.

I very much think he is a running qb. He's very effective at it. I'm sure Maronne will use him in a way that that has him reach success in the quickest manner possible. Also, as is typical for big, fast QB's that know they have skill at running the ball they will run it when passing plays break down quicker than they are used to. That's not good for QB's if you want to win games but it is really good for fantasy rb's.

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That stat is misleading because in college sacks count against a quarterbacks rush yards and a teams rushing total.

Do they only count against Manuel or is it the same for all QBs?

Please tell me this was a bad trolling attempt or I will lose faith in all humanity

Ditto.

Yes the NCAA made a rule that only Manuel loses rush yards on sacks, in attempt to hurt his rushing yards and average, thus lowering his draft stock.

 

[humpback]

The naysayers all look at what must come down. The other side of the coin is that his TD's almost certainly will come up, his catches will rise and if Manuel is QB that is a huge bonus for Spiller because he will cause pause for the defense. Look at what running QB's have done for their teams RB's.

It's only a huge bonus if he plays well- if he's bad, it's a huge negative for Spiller. Also, he's not really a "running" QB.

I very much think he is a running qb. He's very effective at it. I'm sure Maronne will use him in a way that that has him reach success in the quickest manner possible. Also, as is typical for big, fast QB's that know they have skill at running the ball they will run it when passing plays break down quicker than they are used to. That's not good for QB's if you want to win games but it is really good for fantasy rb's.

He's very effective at it? He averaged 1.4 and 3.0 ypc in his two seasons as a starter (2.8 for his college career). That's pretty awful actually.QB's running the ball quickly when passing plays break down is not good for fantasy RB's, especially if they aren't effective at it- winning games is, since they'll be more likely to touch the ball.

That stat is misleading because in college sacks count against a quarterbacks rush yards and a teams rushing total.

Do they only count against Manuel or is it the same for all QBs?

Please tell me this was a bad trolling attempt or I will lose faith in all humanity

Ditto.

Yes the NCAA made a rule that only Manuel loses rush yards on sacks, in attempt to hurt his rushing yards and average, thus lowering his draft stock.

 

[humpback]

I am not saying Chud is right, just throwing that out there that people do consider Manuel a mobile QB. The Bills may use him that way. I do not know how good he will be as a runner though. Fitzpatrick did a decent job running the ball and I don't think anyone considers him much of a scrambler either. The important thing is 1st downs. Manuel doesn't need to be Cam Newton to get some 1st downs. Which will allow them to keep giving Spiller the ball.

Yes, I am one of those people who consider Manuel a mobile QB, I said so several posts ago. That's a plus, but it's very different from a "running" QB like Cam, RGIII, Wilson, Kaep, etc.

This has gotten pretty far off track- if you look back at where I got involved here, it was simply because I disagreed with another poster who said Manuel was very much a running QB and was very effective at it. I think it's pretty clear that isn't the case, I backed it up with numbers, but it doesn't really matter if others can't see that.

As for his impact on Spiller, it's all going to come down to his (overall) performance. If he does well, it's obviously a boost for him. If he does poorly, it'll be a drag. I don't think anyone is going to be so preoccupied with Manuel running the ball that they are going to take their attention away from Spiller.

 

[rickyg]

Are there Spiller doubters out there still? Really?

Unreal. This guy did things last year that put him in the same category as Jim brown in the stat books.

He is going to tear nfl defenses to shreds this season Andre only thing that will stop him is coaching idiocy or injury.

If he gets 250 carries and 50-60 receptions spiller should end up as the #1 or #3 fantasy football Rb. Book it.

 

[msudaisy26]

Are there Spiller doubters out there still? Really?

Unreal. This guy did things last year that put him in the same category as Jim brown in the stat books.

He is going to tear nfl defenses to shreds this season Andre only thing that will stop him is coaching idiocy or injury.

If he gets 250 carries and 50-60 receptions spiller should end up as the #1 or #3 fantasy football Rb. Book it.

He had coaching idiocy last year and that still didn't stop him

 

[Kenny Powers]

I dont know if Manuel is a "running" QB, but he did have 28yds rushing in the 1st half last week and looked pretty quick on a 20+ yd run.

 

[KellysHeroes]

sounding like Manuel is going to miss a lot of time

 

[msudaisy26]

sounding like Manuel is going to miss a lot of time

?

 

[Buffaloes]

sounding like Manuel is going to miss a lot of time

?

not sure about the amount of time he's going to miss come reg season, but minor knee surgery and Marrone said he'll miss the rest of the preseason

 

[Tanner9919]

Bills could have Oprah Winfrey at qb..Spiller still leads the league in rushing this season as the #1 RB in the NFL and Fantasy football.he's grossly undervalued by the looks of it..

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Bills could have Oprah Winfrey at qb..Spiller still leads the league in rushing this season as the #1 RB in the NFL and Fantasy football.he's grossly undervalued by the looks of it..

Imagine the tie-ins if they actually did that.

- Everyone in attendance for every game would get a car

- JAIMEEEE FOOOOOOX would be reprising his role as Willie Beamon and be her backup at QB.

- All post-game spreads would be deep fried en masse, tables/plates/cutlery included

- Tom Cruise would lead halftime couch dances at the 50 yard line for all home games

 

[Slugg]

Are there Spiller doubters out there still? Really?

Unreal. This guy did things last year that put him in the same category as Jim brown in the stat books.

He is going to tear nfl defenses to shreds this season Andre only thing that will stop him is coaching idiocy or injury.

If he gets 250 carries and 50-60 receptions spiller should end up as the #1 or #3 fantasy football Rb. Book it.

but #2 is out of the question

 

[smapdi]

The Spiller doubters have me a little surprised. He is primed to have a tremendous season. Just look at what he did last season (1200 yds @ 6.0 ypc) and realize that he was held back by a terrible coaching staff/offensive scheme.

He was criminally under used by Gailey who had some sick Ryan Fitzpatrick fetish. Spiller went into week 17 averaging 6.5 ypc but an uninspired performance by offense dragged him back down to 6.0 (24 car / 59 yds). He averaged 7.2 ypc on his first 72 carries.

Gailey limited him to 15 or fewer carries in 10 games last season yet he still finished 8th in the NFL with 1244 yards. That was after he opened up the season averaging over 10.0 ypc the first two games.

With that said, Gailey is gone. Bills' new OC, Nathaniel Hackett, had this to say about Spiller: "It's real simple: We're going to give him the ball until he throws up... He's either got to tap out or throw up on the field. Let's just put it that way."

You Spiller haters , please keep spreading your message. I hope plenty of people listen to you so I can draft Spiller with my 1st pick.

 

[DeaLerZ]

Spiller has not had a lot of game with a truly heavy workload. But in the games over his career where he had at least 15 touches, he's produced very well:

Total yards, total TD:

70-0

102-1

56-0

167-2

138-1

100-1

194-1

170-2

110-1

102-0

130-0

103-0

84-1

101-1

173-0

131-1

And crazy - that's a total of 16 games.

1,931 total yards and 12 TDs.

this statistic right here.. is why I am gambling on C.J. Spiller this year.. if you are that worried about him getting injured draft accordingly and create a back up plan. I never understand that argument. He is just way too explosive and if he puts in a full season of work is almost guaranteed to be in the top 3 running backs at the end of the year.. and definitely top 5

 

[smapdi]

Also, if you're in a PPR league with long TD bonuses, Spiller could be the top RB. Every single time he touches the ball, he is a threat to take it to the house. I can see him leading the league in 40+ yard TDs. That explosiveness is what elevates Spiller above the rest of the RBs IMO.

 

[cvnpoka]

his qb situation scares the crap outta me. an injured, unpolished rookie who has missed most of camp. or a guy off the street who has only had a few weeks to learn the offense.

at least he should be in line for a boatload of touches but im not sure the offense can stay on the field.

 

[Chaka]

Also, if you're in a PPR league with long TD bonuses, Spiller could be the top RB. Every single time he touches the ball, he is a threat to take it to the house. I can see him leading the league in 40+ yard TDs. That explosiveness is what elevates Spiller above the rest of the RBs IMO.

Are Jamaal Charles, CJ Spiller, Chris Johnson and David Wilson your top four backs?

 

[Chaka]

his qb situation scares the crap outta me. an injured, unpolished rookie who has missed most of camp. or a guy off the street who has only had a few weeks to learn the offense.

at least he should be in line for a boatload of touches but im not sure the offense can stay on the field.

The offensive line looks to be among the bottom 1/3 in the league too.