Clinton Portis (1 Viewer)

[Redwes25]

His production did drastically decline in the second half last season. I might try to trade him for a top WR after the KC game when his value is at its peak. If I can't get anything for him, I won't mind keeping him as my RB2.

I plan to move after week 5 if possible. He has a ton of carries and will wear down as the year goes on like last year.

 

[puckalicious]

His production did drastically decline in the second half last season. I might try to trade him for a top WR after the KC game when his value is at its peak. If I can't get anything for him, I won't mind keeping him as my RB2.

I plan to move after week 5 if possible. He has a ton of carries and will wear down as the year goes on like last year.

He certainly will assuming he again sprains his MCL. Why does everyone ignore this fact? What you call "wearing down" is what people that watch the game call a tough RB playing with an injured knee. Worn out and injured are different.Pierre Thomas sprained his MCL in preseason. That must mean he has a ton of carries and worn out too.

 

[Redwes25]

His production did drastically decline in the second half last season. I might try to trade him for a top WR after the KC game when his value is at its peak. If I can't get anything for him, I won't mind keeping him as my RB2.

I plan to move after week 5 if possible. He has a ton of carries and will wear down as the year goes on like last year.

He certainly will assuming he again sprains his MCL. Why does everyone ignore this fact? What you call "wearing down" is what people that watch the game call a tough RB playing with an injured knee. Worn out and injured are different.Pierre Thomas sprained his MCL in preseason. That must mean he has a ton of carries and worn out too.

Sorry I just don't want a risk of an old running back breaking down as it happens (e.g. LT2). I will milk him for 5 weeks then trade him and should get good value for him. If he stays healthy then whatever I understand what I am doing and that was the risk of trading him.

 

[dgreen]

His production did drastically decline in the second half last season. I might try to trade him for a top WR after the KC game when his value is at its peak. If I can't get anything for him, I won't mind keeping him as my RB2.

I plan to move after week 5 if possible. He has a ton of carries and will wear down as the year goes on like last year.

He certainly will assuming he again sprains his MCL. Why does everyone ignore this fact? What you call "wearing down" is what people that watch the game call a tough RB playing with an injured knee. Worn out and injured are different.Pierre Thomas sprained his MCL in preseason. That must mean he has a ton of carries and worn out too.

Sorry I just don't want a risk of an old running back breaking down as it happens (e.g. LT2). I will milk him for 5 weeks then trade him and should get good value for him. If he stays healthy then whatever I understand what I am doing and that was the risk of trading him.

At Portis' age, Tomlinson racked up nearly 2000 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDs. I agree Portis' value could be incredibly high 5 weeks from now and you may be able to make a great deal. But, I don't agree that he's likely to repeat last year's second half unless he suffers another injury and his OL falls apart.

 

[circelli17]

I drafted Portis because of his soft schedule... but here's the thing- the Redskins showed zero passing game in week one. Jason Campbell was absolutely brutal. Yes Portis is going against a soft schedule, but if those "soft" teams decide to stack the box with 8 or 9 players like they should I am quite worried about his rushing numbers. Campbell needs to improve in a hurry if you expect another 1700 yard rushing season

 

[dgreen]

I drafted Portis because of his soft schedule... but here's the thing- the Redskins showed zero passing game in week one. Jason Campbell was absolutely brutal. Yes Portis is going against a soft schedule, but if those "soft" teams decide to stack the box with 8 or 9 players like they should I am quite worried about his rushing numbers. Campbell needs to improve in a hurry if you expect another 1700 yard rushing season

Campbell completed 73% of his passes for 8.1 yds/att. I'd hardly say that's "showing zero passing game" or "absolutely brutal".

 

[Redwes25]

His production did drastically decline in the second half last season. I might try to trade him for a top WR after the KC game when his value is at its peak. If I can't get anything for him, I won't mind keeping him as my RB2.

I plan to move after week 5 if possible. He has a ton of carries and will wear down as the year goes on like last year.

He certainly will assuming he again sprains his MCL. Why does everyone ignore this fact? What you call "wearing down" is what people that watch the game call a tough RB playing with an injured knee. Worn out and injured are different.Pierre Thomas sprained his MCL in preseason. That must mean he has a ton of carries and worn out too.

Sorry I just don't want a risk of an old running back breaking down as it happens (e.g. LT2). I will milk him for 5 weeks then trade him and should get good value for him. If he stays healthy then whatever I understand what I am doing and that was the risk of trading him.

At Portis' age, Tomlinson racked up nearly 2000 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDs. I agree Portis' value could be incredibly high 5 weeks from now and you may be able to make a great deal. But, I don't agree that he's likely to repeat last year's second half unless he suffers another injury and his OL falls apart.

Not going to quibble over this stuff but should point out that year was LT2's seventh full year and Portis is going on his 8th full year now and I think the number of carries scare me and must scare others or I wouldn't have gotten him in the 2nd round. Given his carries over his carrier he has some risk which I will off load since I think he will be huge the next 4 weeks.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Not going to quibble over this stuff but should point out that year was LT2's seventh full year and Portis is going on his 8th full year now and I think the number of carries scare me and must scare others or I wouldn't have gotten him in the 2nd round. Given his carries over his carrier he has some risk which I will off load since I think he will be huge the next 4 weeks.

Please provide a link to the statistical analysis that shows "workload" matters more than age. Portis just turned 28.

 

[cobalt_27]

Not going to quibble over this stuff but should point out that year was LT2's seventh full year and Portis is going on his 8th full year now and I think the number of carries scare me and must scare others or I wouldn't have gotten him in the 2nd round. Given his carries over his carrier he has some risk which I will off load since I think he will be huge the next 4 weeks.

Please provide a link to the statistical analysis that shows "workload" matters more than age. Portis just turned 28.

While we're at it, someone provide a statistical analysis that shows workload matters in the first place? I know that Football Outsiders thinks they did this a while back, but it was so conceptually flawed and made absolutely no attempt to provide a comparison group or whatever. I know that I, along with others, have provided a couple of these analyses here, in the past (do a search; this isn't the thread for it) that demonstrate there is no predictive effect of workload on reduced production in year N+1.The reason to downgrade Portis is because he's on a crap offense and isn't an everydown back, anymore. Not because he's had a big workload in the past.

 

[Redwes25]

Not going to quibble over this stuff but should point out that year was LT2's seventh full year and Portis is going on his 8th full year now and I think the number of carries scare me and must scare others or I wouldn't have gotten him in the 2nd round. Given his carries over his carrier he has some risk which I will off load since I think he will be huge the next 4 weeks.

Please provide a link to the statistical analysis that shows "workload" matters more than age. Portis just turned 28.

Ok will have that out by the end of the weekend.... To be honest I don't think something happens magicly happens at 29 or 30 to cause RBs numbers to drop off but rather the number of carries someone has had over time. Portis has over 2,000 carries and that comes with some risk and I think he could breakdown (not saying he will) so after a few good weeks I plan to trade him when I think his value will be high as he has cake schedule. Since you demand some support for this stuff here are links to a couple articles discussing impact of carries on RBs.

http://www.realfootball365.com/articles/fantasy/12003

http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html

ETA - The only backs active backs with more carries with him are below and they are all the picture of health. So I think there is some link between total carries and productivity

Edgerrin James 2,993 1999-2009

LaDainian Tomlinson 2,670 2001-2009

Fred Taylor 2,437 1998-2009

Jamal Lewis 2,410 2000-2009

 

[nola]

I still love Portis, but it does get frustrating as a Portis owner when pretty much all of his TD's over the past several seasons have come from inside the redzone. I agree with others, he still has enough burst and straightline speed, you would think, to break the occasional 50+ yard TD run, but for whatever reason it seems that his style, or perhaps just bad luck, have mitigated those opportunities.... Whenever he gets into the open, there are either a couple of safeties deep enough to corral him in the middle of the field, or he gets tripped up from behind after slowing down to change direction, or he makes a break for the sideline but there are DB's with an easy angle to make the tackle. That said, I'll take his production for sure, but I do miss games like this:14 DEN KC 22 218 5 3 2 36 0 55.4I recall him having a long 60+ yard TD run in his very first game with Washington... Don't recall many long TD runs since that one. I'm sure there are a few, but still drastically fewer than he had in only two seasons in Denver, and, well, probably fewer than he had in that one game against KC.

Long runs require good blocking from WRs. Santana Moss doesn't take out many safetys...

 

[dgreen]

To be honest I don't think something happens magicly happens at 29 or 30 to cause RBs numbers to drop off but rather the number of carries someone has had over time. Portis has over 2,000 carries and that comes with some risk and I think he could breakdown (not saying he will) so after a few good weeks I plan to trade him when I think his value will be high as he has cake schedule.

Scroll up to see what happens after a RB reaches their 2,000th carry. If they are younger, like Portis, they easily go on to 1000+ more carries in their career. Yes, it's a small sample size, but it seems fairly clear to me that age matters.Again, I'm not saying trading him in a few weeks is a bad idea. It's possible his value will peak soon and never be that high again in dynasty. But, don't make the same mistake everyone else is making in prematurely predicting his death as a top RB. People have been doing it for a couple years now. People keep buying reports that Betts is going to steal too much production and that Portis is falling apart. Betts won't and Portis is not falling apart, at least not yet. Redskins fans have been screaming these things loud and clear for a couple years and some just don't want to listen.

 

[cobalt_27]

Not going to quibble over this stuff but should point out that year was LT2's seventh full year and Portis is going on his 8th full year now and I think the number of carries scare me and must scare others or I wouldn't have gotten him in the 2nd round. Given his carries over his carrier he has some risk which I will off load since I think he will be huge the next 4 weeks.

Please provide a link to the statistical analysis that shows "workload" matters more than age. Portis just turned 28.

Ok will have that out by the end of the weekend.... To be honest I don't think something happens magicly happens at 29 or 30 to cause RBs numbers to drop off but rather the number of carries someone has had over time. Portis has over 2,000 carries and that comes with some risk and I think he could breakdown (not saying he will) so after a few good weeks I plan to trade him when I think his value will be high as he has cake schedule. Since you demand some support for this stuff here are links to a couple articles discussing impact of carries on RBs.

http://www.realfootball365.com/articles/fantasy/12003

http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html

ETA - The only backs active backs with more carries with him are below and they are all the picture of health. So I think there is some link between total carries and productivity

Edgerrin James 2,993 1999-2009

LaDainian Tomlinson 2,670 2001-2009

Fred Taylor 2,437 1998-2009

Jamal Lewis 2,410 2000-2009

Fred Taylor seems to go against this hypothesis. Between 1998-2005 in his "Fragile Freddy" days, he averaged 13 games, 262 attempts, and 4.6ypc. Since then, he's been a much better picture of health and more productive, averaging 15 games/season, 223 att, and 5.0 ypc.And the guys below Portis in terms of workload over the last few years include...

8. Ahman Green (31) 2,015 1998-2008

9. Thomas Jones (30) 1,969 2000-2009

10. Ricky Williams (31) 1,930 1999-2009

11. Rudi Johnson (29) 1,517 2001-2008

12. Deuce McAllister (30) 1,429 2001-2008

13. Michael Pittman (33) 1,392 1998-2008

They are all a picture of health, too, huh?

Let's not stop there. How about the next tier of RBs with even less of a workload:

14. Willis McGahee (27) 1,342 2004-2009

15. Brian Westbrook (29) 1,260 2002-2009

16. Larry Johnson (29) 1,254 2003-2009

17. Steven Jackson (25) 1,240 2004-2009

18. Willie Parker (28) 1,168 2004-2009

19. Julius Jones (27) 1,062 2004-2009

A real durable group here, as well.

Point is, running backs take a beating. Unless you're a freak like Emmitt Smith, most RBs are going to have their issues staying on the field (and even Emmitt had his spot games playing much less than 100%).

Downgrade Portis in statistical production this year because the offense is a joke, and he has been reduced to a 2-down back by his idiot coach. But, don't downgrade him because he's had a lot of carries.

 

[burgundy and gold]

Even in the face of irrefutable evidence we have some who will, without the slightest shame, argue the contrary. This Portis debate reminds me of the current health care debate. The Facts: millions of Americans are lacking proper health care to the point where it's significantly decreasing the quality of life and the length of life of those millions = Portis has been and is a top ten back in this league in fantasy as well as reality. The Fallacies: there's no health care crisis and we should leave the current system of survival of the fittest (richest) in place with maybe a few minor changes = Portis isn't consistently productive (at a high rate) in fantasy and shouldn't be relied upon despite a cupcake schedule and should never have been brought to DC in the first place.

A little over the top, I know. I guess I could be wrong. I'm sure many will disagree. But I've found Portis to be a tremendous asset in reality. In fantasy he's been very productive (maybe not stellar) but a consistent contributor and overall asset to 2 of my championship fantasy squads.

I will probably win another championship this season due to others underestimation of him. I've got him as my RB2 behind AP and I fully expect them to lead the league in rushing this year.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Even in the face of irrefutable evidence we have some who will, without the slightest shame, argue the contrary. This Portis debate reminds me of the current health care debate. The Facts: millions of Americans are lacking proper health care to the point where it's significantly decreasing the quality of life and the length of life of those millions = Portis has been and is a top ten back in this league in fantasy as well as reality. The Fallacies: there's no health care crisis and we should leave the current system of survival of the fittest (richest) in place with maybe a few minor changes = Portis isn't consistently productive (at a high rate) in fantasy and shouldn't be relied upon despite a cupcake schedule and should never have been brought to DC in the first place.A little over the top, I know. I guess I could be wrong. I'm sure many will disagree. But I've found Portis to be a tremendous asset in reality. In fantasy he's been very productive (maybe not stellar) but a consistent contributor and overall asset to 2 of my championship fantasy squads.I will probably win another championship this season due to others underestimation of him. I've got him as my RB2 behind AP and I fully expect them to lead the league in rushing this year.

We all recognize that Portis has been productive. What is more interesting, IMO, is a debate about when his production will start to decline materially. We all know that it will happen eventually, the question is a) when? b) how quickly?As a Portis owner, I hope that he has 2-3 more years of top-15 RB production. But we'll see.

 

[thehornet]

No, I am no suggesting that at all. You just did.

You dont have to get hurt to be on the downside of a career.

Then I guess I don't understand the point you're trying to make. Or did you not have one?

It's not really that tough to grasp. I think he is on the downside of his career. He has over 2200 Career rushes. That is one of the highest active numbers amongst RB's. You are awfully defensive. Last 6 Games

Week 13

11 Carries for 22 Yards

Week 14

11 Carries for 32 Yards

Week 15

25 Carries for 77 Yards

Week 16

22 Carries for 70 Yards

Week 17

29 Carries for 80 yards

Week 1 2009

16 Carries for 62 Yards

That is a 3.0/YPC. He only had 7 Receptions and 2 TD's during this stretch. I'm telling you, he is in trouble.

I wasn't really being defensive. In reference to this thread I was wondering if you had a point when you said Portis was "on the downside of his career." It just didn't seem like a comment that had much bearing on the issue at hand.We all already know that he isn't the same player he was in Denver and early in Washington yet he still managed over 1700 yards and 9 TDs just last season. If that's the downside of a career, so be it. It's already been mentioned, but Portis was playing through an injury in the games you referenced. It happens to all RBs.

He doesn't look slow or like he's lost a step from the little I've seen so far in 2009 and he's going to be a very productive back against the cupcakes on that schedule. If I get worried about him breaking down maybe I'll trade him after he shreds the Rams, Lions, Bucs, Panthers, Chiefs, and Broncos.

4.1 YPC against the Rams? 79 yards? You should listen to me.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

4.1 YPC against the Rams? 79 yards? You should listen to me.

The 'Skins passing offense sucks. Every team is going to stack 8-9 in the box and dare J Campbell to beat them. Portis is hosed this year.

 

[dgreen]

4.1 YPC against the Rams? 79 yards? You should listen to me.

Did you watch the game?

 

[thehornet]

4.1 YPC against the Rams? 79 yards? You should listen to me.

Did you watch the game?

The numbers speak volumes.

 

[thayman]

4.1 YPC against the Rams? 79 yards? You should listen to me.

Did you watch the game?

The numbers speak volumes.

so does the quality of your posts.

 

[joffer]

I don't get the redskins

I don't get their gameplan

I don't get their playcalling

I don't get the way they use their RBs

I don't get why they've stuck with Campbell

I don't get it

 

[thehornet]

4.1 YPC against the Rams? 79 yards? You should listen to me.

Did you watch the game?

The numbers speak volumes.

so does the quality of your posts.

I've laid out good reasons why I see a decline.

 

[thayman]

4.1 YPC against the Rams? 79 yards? You should listen to me.

Did you watch the game?

The numbers speak volumes.

so does the quality of your posts.

I've laid out good reasons why I see a decline.

 

[AllVolUT]

4.1 YPC against the Rams? 79 yards? You should listen to me.

Did you watch the game?

Unfortunately I wasn't able to. What, in your opinion, were the main reasons the Skins struggled offensively? My initial guess would be the OLine, but I would love to hear your input. Outside of the mediocre stats, how did Portis actually look?

 

[thehornet]

I've laid out good reasons why I see a decline.



do you have anything to add? Oh, just a ticked off portis owner. im not playing this game with you.

 

[VTjkru]

4.1 YPC against the Rams? 79 yards? You should listen to me.

Did you watch the game?

Unfortunately I wasn't able to. What, in your opinion, were the main reasons the Skins struggled offensively? My initial guess would be the OLine, but I would love to hear your input. Outside of the mediocre stats, how did Portis actually look?

I flipped it on and off but I would have to say very predictable play calling. When a defense has a pretty good idea what play you are going to run it's hard to get anything going. Also Campbell is not someone that teams are respecting.

 

[AllVolUT]

4.1 YPC against the Rams? 79 yards? You should listen to me.

Did you watch the game?

Unfortunately I wasn't able to. What, in your opinion, were the main reasons the Skins struggled offensively? My initial guess would be the OLine, but I would love to hear your input. Outside of the mediocre stats, how did Portis actually look?

I flipped it on and off but I would have to say very predictable play calling. When a defense has a pretty good idea what play you are going to run it's hard to get anything going. Also Campbell is not someone that teams are respecting.

Fair enough, pretty much what I expected. Thanks.

 

[thayman]

do you have anything to add? Oh, just a ticked off portis owner. im not playing this game with you.

I don't own him nor am I ticked off. Your arguments are simply nonsense.

 

[thehornet]

do you have anything to add? Oh, just a ticked off portis owner. im not playing this game with you.

I don't own him nor am I ticked off. Your arguments are simply nonsense.

 

[thayman]

do you have anything to add? Oh, just a ticked off portis owner. im not playing this game with you.

I don't own him nor am I ticked off. Your arguments are simply nonsense.

My interest in him is NFL related as I'm a Skins fan. Reasons for his performance at the end of last year were outlined for you above, restating them for you would seem to serve little to no purpose.

 

[fatness]

I don't get the redskins

I don't get their gameplan

I don't get their playcalling

I don't get the way they use their RBs

I don't get why they've stuck with Campbell

I don't get it

I bolded their main problem. Their head coach is too busy analyzing or micromanaging or experimenting with playcalls and personnel groupings to actually deal with trying to win the game they are playing at that moment.

 

[Ripleys]

actually Portis had several very nice runs today. I can remember a few that were 9-10+ yards a pop. But the play calling is so awful, its gonna hamstring his output all year.

 

[thehornet]

do you have anything to add? Oh, just a ticked off portis owner. im not playing this game with you.

I don't own him nor am I ticked off. Your arguments are simply nonsense.

My interest in him is NFL related as I'm a Skins fan. Reasons for his performance at the end of last year were outlined for you above, restating them for you would seem to serve little to no purpose.

I did a write-up about how many career rushes he has under his belt. I thought that was in this thread but apparently it was a different thread. I am more concerned with the 2400+ rushes than his age and last years 2nd half. Good luck as a Skins fan, hope they can right the ship a bit.

 

[Sidewinder16]

actually Portis had several very nice runs today. I can remember a few that were 9-10+ yards a pop. But the play calling is so awful, its gonna hamstring his output all year.

Yesterday was a somewhat odd hot and cold running game for the 'Skins, and Portis. He was either getting 7-11 yards or he was getting nothing. There was almost no in between.

 

[Maroney=Sped]

I don't get the redskinsI don't get their gameplanI don't get their playcallingI don't get the way they use their RBsI don't get why they've stuck with CampbellI don't get it

except for the "stuck with Campbell". I'm almost there regarding Campbell, but this is his make or break year. As for the rest, absolutely right. They don't seem to know what they're doing on offense. Zorn lives or dies with what the offense and specifically Campbell do this year. IMHO Zorn has nothing to lose throwing the games on Campbell's shoulders and testing him. Throw 55% of the time. Spread the defense out. Make Campbell make plays. Go down swinging if you're going to go down. Instead Zorn is calling games like he's coaching the New York Giants and he can afford to play it conservatively with a dominant team, and he's already won a Super Bowl and his job is secure. This is the problem. Campbell seems to be chomping on the bit to prove himself but Zorn won't fully turn him loose. I'm not at all saying that Campbell is a top QB or even a Pro Bowl caliber QB ultimately, but he's definitely capable of more than he's been allowed to show so far this year, and Zorn's not even adjusting now twice in a row to teams that have decided to simply remove Moss. They're lucky that they're 1-1 right now and still "alive" but the standings are about the only place that they've shown any life this year.

 

[dgreen]

do you have anything to add? Oh, just a ticked off portis owner. im not playing this game with you.

I don't own him nor am I ticked off. Your arguments are simply nonsense.

My interest in him is NFL related as I'm a Skins fan. Reasons for his performance at the end of last year were outlined for you above, restating them for you would seem to serve little to no purpose.

I did a write-up about how many career rushes he has under his belt. I thought that was in this thread but apparently it was a different thread. I am more concerned with the 2400+ rushes than his age and last years 2nd half. Good luck as a Skins fan, hope they can right the ship a bit.

And I replied to that showing that the number of carries isn't a problem for someone his age.

 

[dgreen]

actually Portis had several very nice runs today. I can remember a few that were 9-10+ yards a pop. But the play calling is so awful, its gonna hamstring his output all year.

Yesterday was a somewhat odd hot and cold running game for the 'Skins, and Portis. He was either getting 7-11 yards or he was getting nothing. There was almost no in between.

The OL struggled at times in run blocking. Losing Randy Thomas is going to hurt for two reasons: 1) Whoever replaces him won't be as good and 2) Thomas was able to help Heyer a lot. If the RG performance dramatically drops, then so too with Heyer's. The left side, which is their best side, had it's poor moments too. Dockery was absolutely destroyed on that last 4th down call. That's why Portis had to take it outside.It seemed that whenever Portis ripped off a nice run, Zorn would completely change personnel and throw. It's ridiculous for Portis to only have 19 carries in a game like that.

 

[Hedgehog]

I am shocked with Portis - though I stole him as a top#2RB but he has been awful - glad to read its not really his faultwith play calling, QB and OL probs but not making me feel better! Guy is a workhorse - use him!!!!

 

[Corte]

Some hostility in this thread but glad people were able to turn the boat around be civil. As for my input I will admit disappointment with Portis' production thus far. Luckily he was steal in my league in the 3rd round and I am glad to have him considering my RB1, LT, had to sit out. I agree with those that Portis still has plenty of tread left in his tires but that also we need to see some improvement from Campbell, the o-line and play calling.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I did a write-up about how many career rushes he has under his belt. I thought that was in this thread but apparently it was a different thread. I am more concerned with the 2400+ rushes than his age and last years 2nd half. Good luck as a Skins fan, hope they can right the ship a bit.

And I replied to that showing that the number of carries isn't a problem for someone his age.

Exactly. hornet seems to be confused about a couple of concepts that he is muddying together.1) Portis has a ton of carries in his career, but there is zero statistical evidence that # of carries causes diminished output. Rather, age of a RB is fare more directly linked to a performance decline.2) Portis can be perfectly healthy, not due for a dropoff due to health, and STILL underperform in fantasty this year, because his O-line and QB are terrible. At some point folks will finally come to the conclusion that #2 is true, regardless of what you believe about #1. I like Portis and continue to hope that his production improves....but the 'Skins offense is just horrible. Until that changes, Portis will be lucky to get a TD every 3rd week. And he'll be lucky to get 100 yds rushing.

 

[thehornet]

I did a write-up about how many career rushes he has under his belt. I thought that was in this thread but apparently it was a different thread. I am more concerned with the 2400+ rushes than his age and last years 2nd half. Good luck as a Skins fan, hope they can right the ship a bit.

And I replied to that showing that the number of carries isn't a problem for someone his age.

Exactly. hornet seems to be confused about a couple of concepts that he is muddying together.1) Portis has a ton of carries in his career, but there is zero statistical evidence that # of carries causes diminished output. Rather, age of a RB is fare more directly linked to a performance decline.2) Portis can be perfectly healthy, not due for a dropoff due to health, and STILL underperform in fantasty this year, because his O-line and QB are terrible. At some point folks will finally come to the conclusion that #2 is true, regardless of what you believe about #1. I like Portis and continue to hope that his production improves....but the 'Skins offense is just horrible. Until that changes, Portis will be lucky to get a TD every 3rd week. And he'll be lucky to get 100 yds rushing.

No im not confused at all. 1. Statistical evidence? Please show me your statistical evidence of age vs. career rushing attempts. I'll be waiting.2. This is one way of spinning it. Funny, Gore got it done for 3 years in a horrid offense, bad line, and worse QB play than Campbell. Your are blinded by it buddy.

 

[thehornet]

His production did drastically decline in the second half last season. I might try to trade him for a top WR after the KC game when his value is at its peak. If I can't get anything for him, I won't mind keeping him as my RB2.

I plan to move after week 5 if possible. He has a ton of carries and will wear down as the year goes on like last year.

He certainly will assuming he again sprains his MCL. Why does everyone ignore this fact? What you call "wearing down" is what people that watch the game call a tough RB playing with an injured knee. Worn out and injured are different.Pierre Thomas sprained his MCL in preseason. That must mean he has a ton of carries and worn out too.

Sorry I just don't want a risk of an old running back breaking down as it happens (e.g. LT2). I will milk him for 5 weeks then trade him and should get good value for him. If he stays healthy then whatever I understand what I am doing and that was the risk of trading him.

At Portis' age, Tomlinson racked up nearly 2000 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDs. I agree Portis' value could be incredibly high 5 weeks from now and you may be able to make a great deal. But, I don't agree that he's likely to repeat last year's second half unless he suffers another injury and his OL falls apart.

Last year, we can admit that LT started to drop off a little bit and he was 29. Magically he was at about 2500 career carries. You guys keep arguing its about age, but it's not.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I did a write-up about how many career rushes he has under his belt. I thought that was in this thread but apparently it was a different thread. I am more concerned with the 2400+ rushes than his age and last years 2nd half. Good luck as a Skins fan, hope they can right the ship a bit.

And I replied to that showing that the number of carries isn't a problem for someone his age.

Exactly. hornet seems to be confused about a couple of concepts that he is muddying together.1) Portis has a ton of carries in his career, but there is zero statistical evidence that # of carries causes diminished output. Rather, age of a RB is fare more directly linked to a performance decline.2) Portis can be perfectly healthy, not due for a dropoff due to health, and STILL underperform in fantasty this year, because his O-line and QB are terrible. At some point folks will finally come to the conclusion that #2 is true, regardless of what you believe about #1. I like Portis and continue to hope that his production improves....but the 'Skins offense is just horrible. Until that changes, Portis will be lucky to get a TD every 3rd week. And he'll be lucky to get 100 yds rushing.

No im not confused at all. 1. Statistical evidence? Please show me your statistical evidence of age vs. career rushing attempts. I'll be waiting.2. This is one way of spinning it. Funny, Gore got it done for 3 years in a horrid offense, bad line, and worse QB play than Campbell. Your are blinded by it buddy.

I'm not blinded by it at all. We both agree that Portis isn't going to produce this year, we just have different reasons. Either way, I'm looking to sell him if/when he ever packages together back-to-back good production.1. I don't need to show statistical evidence. This has been de-bunked so many times in the SP, there is no purpose to wasting my time collecting the support. Everyone in the SP agrees on this, except you.2. I'm not spinning anything. Nowhere did I claim that Portis is as good as Gore or say, SJax. But if #2 makes you feel vindicated and superior somehow, keep on truckin'. Oh, to be fair I shouldn't have used the word "confused". I didn't mean it to read that way. My point was that you were subtly blending together 2 very different issues. It sounds like we disagree on both issues anyway, but that's ok.Regardless, I appreciate your thoughtful responses on Portis. Like I wrote, we've reached similar conclusions about his value in 2009.

 

[Corte]

Last year, we can admit that LT started to drop off a little bit and he was 29. Magically he was at about 2500 career carries. You guys keep arguing its about age, but it's not.

You're just as foolish relying solely on number of carries. Both are factors in a player's decline that is obvious, how large of a factor I certainly won't pretend to know. Carries and age are used to reflect a player's wear and tear. However there are plenty of other things that contribute to a player's decline such as the type of rushing, amount and severity of injuries, or condition of the rest of them.Right now I would say it is clear that Portis is not producing because Washington as a whole is not producing. Nothing so far indicates to me that Portis is playing worse or is hamped by age, carries or injury.

 

[thehornet]

I did a write-up about how many career rushes he has under his belt. I thought that was in this thread but apparently it was a different thread. I am more concerned with the 2400+ rushes than his age and last years 2nd half. Good luck as a Skins fan, hope they can right the ship a bit.

And I replied to that showing that the number of carries isn't a problem for someone his age.

Exactly. hornet seems to be confused about a couple of concepts that he is muddying together.1) Portis has a ton of carries in his career, but there is zero statistical evidence that # of carries causes diminished output. Rather, age of a RB is fare more directly linked to a performance decline.2) Portis can be perfectly healthy, not due for a dropoff due to health, and STILL underperform in fantasty this year, because his O-line and QB are terrible. At some point folks will finally come to the conclusion that #2 is true, regardless of what you believe about #1. I like Portis and continue to hope that his production improves....but the 'Skins offense is just horrible. Until that changes, Portis will be lucky to get a TD every 3rd week. And he'll be lucky to get 100 yds rushing.

No im not confused at all. 1. Statistical evidence? Please show me your statistical evidence of age vs. career rushing attempts. I'll be waiting.2. This is one way of spinning it. Funny, Gore got it done for 3 years in a horrid offense, bad line, and worse QB play than Campbell. Your are blinded by it buddy.

I'm not blinded by it at all. We both agree that Portis isn't going to produce this year, we just have different reasons. Either way, I'm looking to sell him if/when he ever packages together back-to-back good production.1. I don't need to show statistical evidence. This has been de-bunked so many times in the SP, there is no purpose to wasting my time collecting the support. Everyone in the SP agrees on this, except you.2. I'm not spinning anything. Nowhere did I claim that Portis is as good as Gore or say, SJax. But if #2 makes you feel vindicated and superior somehow, keep on truckin'. Oh, to be fair I shouldn't have used the word "confused". I didn't mean it to read that way. My point was that you were subtly blending together 2 very different issues. It sounds like we disagree on both issues anyway, but that's ok.Regardless, I appreciate your thoughtful responses on Portis. Like I wrote, we've reached similar conclusions about his value in 2009.

Shaun Alexander was 29 when he hit the wall. LT hit his wall at the end of last year. 29edge averaged 3.4 and 3.8 YPC when he wsa 28 and 29. Awful. That was his wall. Not last year. NOW, check out this:Thomas Jones is still producing like a stud. 1300 yards rushing last year, 4.5 YPC, 13 TD's as a 30 Year old. This year: 4.7 YPC.He is under 2000 carries but 31 years old and still elite. Coincidence? It's not. Towards the end of nest year you can expect the drop off to begin. Not this year.Lastly, I dont just go with the flow. As you stated, the whole SP thinks this so it must be true, comment. I like to think outside of the box.

 

[thehornet]

Last year, we can admit that LT started to drop off a little bit and he was 29. Magically he was at about 2500 career carries. You guys keep arguing its about age, but it's not.

You're just as foolish relying solely on number of carries. Both are factors in a player's decline that is obvious, how large of a factor I certainly won't pretend to know. Carries and age are used to reflect a player's wear and tear. However there are plenty of other things that contribute to a player's decline such as the type of rushing, amount and severity of injuries, or condition of the rest of them.Right now I would say it is clear that Portis is not producing because Washington as a whole is not producing. Nothing so far indicates to me that Portis is playing worse or is hamped by age, carries or injury.

I Agree! Both are factors. However, I believe the number of carries is a better indicator of a potential drop off, then just strictly age. See Thomas Jones.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Lastly,

We can only hope

 

[thehornet]

Lastly,

We can only hope

Sorry, I'll stop. You guys sure are sensitive Portis owners. Don't say I didnt warn you. Sell him.Truth Hurts.

 

[dgreen]

Lastly,

We can only hope

 

[Sir Psycho]

Lastly,

We can only hope

Sorry, I'll stop. You guys sure are sensitive Portis owners. Don't say I didnt warn you. Sell him.

Whats Portis value in a dynasty league?