thehornet
Footballguy
Are you asking what you should be able to get for him or where would I rank him?
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Clinton Portis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Grahamburn
- Start date
Oh anonymous internet posting, what can't you ruin? Seriously stop with the ####### childish antics and argue the merits please. As a Portis owner, not fan, I'd love real debate and discussion about him. I mentioned previously that currently I'd attribute Portis' lack of production to team troubles. To add to this I am with the rest of you in selling him high if he can swing together some decent games unless the team and Campbell turn a corner.
thehornet
Footballguy
Corte, I was trying to have a debate about his extremely high number of carries, but I am getting flamed for it. I'm not trying to tick anyone off, but apparently I am. Some people dont want to admit that the problem isn't only poor O-Line work and Campbell. Portis looks flat and he doesnt break long ones anymore. He gets spelled on 3rd down, and Betts looks shiftier.
Sir Psycho
Footballguy
Whiplash Inc.
Footballguy
It is too bad the Skins weren't able to land Cutler this off season. Would've helped Portis out in a major way.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I wasn't overly impressed with Clinton's end of game stat line either, but he did have runs of 12, 11, 6, 7, 11, 7, 6, and 9. That's almost half of his carries that were above 6 yards. His first carry against the Giants was over 30 yards so he's obviously still very capable of getting chunks of yards at a time.
He also had 6 carries that were inside the St. Louis ten yard line that were continually getting stuffed up front by the Rams. I didn't see much that Portis could do there. If he would have punched one of those in for a TD I think we'd all be singing a different tune in here.
Keep in mind that Portis doesn't play in the preseason and it usually takes a few games for him to hit his stride and get into football shape.
And again, we're losing sight of the purpose of this thread, which is that the matchups left for Portis are still pretty outstanding even after a mediocre performance against the Rams.
Detroit up next.
He also had 6 carries that were inside the St. Louis ten yard line that were continually getting stuffed up front by the Rams. I didn't see much that Portis could do there. If he would have punched one of those in for a TD I think we'd all be singing a different tune in here.
Keep in mind that Portis doesn't play in the preseason and it usually takes a few games for him to hit his stride and get into football shape.
And again, we're losing sight of the purpose of this thread, which is that the matchups left for Portis are still pretty outstanding even after a mediocre performance against the Rams.
Detroit up next.
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Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Um, yeah, and because the O-line isn't good, Campbell scares nobody, and Zorn can't play call a game appropriately, Portis was unable to do jack. How exactly do you see this situation changing?
Portis just had a dream matchup and he did nothing. Great, he had 88 all-purpose yards. Not exactly helpful.The purpose of this thread should be to challenge what is proving a difficult premise to defend - the idea that Portis will be productive this year against bad opponents. He failed this past week, and if he fails again vs Detroit it is time for Portis owners to go into panic mode.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Really then just show us the links of all this debunking if so true. I don't buy the fact I guy turns 29 or 30 and he is over. I think it is more due to with number of carries which just so happen must people hit that number at that age but Portis is running up against earlier given how good he has been.
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
PM a staff member. I'm not interested in using the search function to educate the uneducated.
Redwes25
Footballguy
wow you are an ###. I post links to articles and number of carries and you won't do anything to add to the conversation - nice.
Quite a few threads/studies in the Shark Pool have shown there is little correlation between the number of carries and the wearing down of a rb. If anything, the fact Portis has held up over the years with all these carries is a GOOD thing, if it means anything at all.
AGE plays a big factor, and more often than not the more carries you've had the older you are - but carries by themselves don't mean a thing.
I'll look through the Shark Pool to find those studies but honestly I won't look that hard. Believe what you'll believe - it doesn't affect my league one way or the other.
Portis, imo, is a great guy to buy low right now based upon where he'll likely end up eoy and the price you have to pay to get him.
Though I'd be concerned about the Skins' o-line more than anything.
AGE plays a big factor, and more often than not the more carries you've had the older you are - but carries by themselves don't mean a thing.
I'll look through the Shark Pool to find those studies but honestly I won't look that hard. Believe what you'll believe - it doesn't affect my league one way or the other.
Portis, imo, is a great guy to buy low right now based upon where he'll likely end up eoy and the price you have to pay to get him.
Though I'd be concerned about the Skins' o-line more than anything.
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
I work 90-100 hours a week. When I *do* have time to read threads that interest me, I don't unfortunately have time to go read through 5,000 old threads to demonstrate something that has been explained a hundred times before. Sorry if that bothers you.
thehornet
Footballguy
SURE YOU DO
I wasn't overly impressed with Clinton's end of game stat line either, but he did have runs of 12, 11, 6, 7, 11, 7, 6, and 9. That's almost half of his carries that were above 6 yards. His first carry against the Giants was over 30 yards so he's obviously still very capable of getting chunks of yards at a time.He also had 6 carries that were inside the St. Louis ten yard line that were continually getting stuffed up front by the Rams. I didn't see much that Portis could do there. If he would have punched one of those in for a TD I think we'd all be singing a different tune in here.Keep in mind that Portis doesn't play in the preseason and it usually takes a few games for him to hit his stride and get into football shape.And again, we're losing sight of the purpose of this thread, which is that the matchups left for Portis are still pretty outstanding even after a mediocre performance against the Rams.Detroit up next.
Have to agree here. I'm counting on 100+ and a score next week vs. DET, if he only puts up around 75 yards, I'll start to worry a little bit.
dgreen
Footballguy
I think it all hinges around the playcalling right now. If they can improve that, I think the offense can take a major step forward and Portis can start producing.
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Yeah, I was clearly calling him uneducated in general. It wasn't a tongue-in-cheek remark directed at someone who evidently hasn't been in the SP ever, where we've discussed this issue probably 50 times. Thanks for chiming in with profanity.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Yet you have the time to go back and forth with the guy in this thread over a stupid argument?Michael Fox said:
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
fred - it takes me 5 seconds to respond to a silly post on a message board. it takes real time to go back through 500 threads.
Let's get back to the real issue here: given that Portis wasn't able to do anything vs the Rams, what makes people think anything will change?
1. Bad O-line? not going to change
2. Bad QB? not going to change
3. RB who appears to be slower/less explosive than before? not going to change
4. losing 3rd down touches to Betts? not going to change
So if, against these factors, Portis performs mediocre against the Rams, what is the catalyst to spur greater production?
I am sincerely interested in the response. Look forward to more productive discussion. Sorry for any contributions I've made to derailing this thread.
Let's get back to the real issue here: given that Portis wasn't able to do anything vs the Rams, what makes people think anything will change?
1. Bad O-line? not going to change
2. Bad QB? not going to change
3. RB who appears to be slower/less explosive than before? not going to change
4. losing 3rd down touches to Betts? not going to change
So if, against these factors, Portis performs mediocre against the Rams, what is the catalyst to spur greater production?
I am sincerely interested in the response. Look forward to more productive discussion. Sorry for any contributions I've made to derailing this thread.
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fred_1_15301
Footballguy
It's fine and I agree with your points. It's just that both of you are in agreement that Portis's value is decreasing. You're just stating different reasons to justify the cause. To me, the important thing is that Portis's value will decrease.......not necessarily why his value will decrease. This is the information that I'm looking for at least. Anyways, I guess I just think it's petty to argue over something that you're basically in agreement with. I'm not just directing that towards you by the way.
I don't agree with your evaluations of these "factors."1. How do you know it's not going to change? Perhaps the line will improve as the season progresses, perhaps the line will get worse. You state "not going to change" like it's a fact, but it's only your opinion.2. Bad QB??-Campbell has the 12th highest QB rating so far this year; higher than Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Romo, and Brady. 3. I'm not sure he appears slower or less explosive. As noted earlier in this thread, 7 of Portis' 19 carries against the Rams went for 6+ yards.4. On 3rd down this year: Portis 3 rushes, Betts 2 (neither has a 3rd down reception). This is WAY overblown. Betts is not going to take significant touches from Portis on 3rd downs. For the last 3 years, Washington has said they want to get Betts more involved, then when the season starts, it's the Portis show.Portis has started slow, but so did the Redskins. If the playcalling improves, Portis' FF numbers will, too. If they don't, Portis is already on pace for 1100 rush yards. If he gets a few TDs, then he will come close to meeting his ADP of a late second round pick.
dgreen
Footballguy
The important thing for #3 and #4 is: It's no different this year than last year. Yes, Portis is slower and less explosive than when he was in Denver. But, he's not slower or less explosive than last year. He hasn't shown a drop off there, IMO. And, the only change for Betts is now his role is defined. In the past, it was that Portis came out when he wanted to come out. Now it's that Betts is in certain packages. The overall effect, though, is that Portis and Betts play just as much as last season.And I don't think Campbell is a bad QB. He's an average QB with a coach who isn't willing to let Campbell do much right now.
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Ok, so what IS different than last year? He wasn't able to do jack against a horrible team this past week. What is different? I'm curious what the explanation is.On #3: it's possible that Portis is less explosive than last year, and for whatever reason you aren't seeing it. It's also possible that I'm overly pessimistic.On #4: Portis never wanted to come out last year. If he's suddenly forced to come out of the game every 3rd down play, then by definition Betts will be on the field more (unless they never have 3rd down plays, which seems statistically unlikely). On #1: what exactly will happen to improve the O-line, particularly with Thomas out? I hope you're right, because then perhaps my GB Packers can improve their abysmal O-line mid-season as well.On #2: We've seen Campbell play enough the past 2 years that most people would agree he is in the bottom 1/2 of all starting QBs, probably closer to bottom quartile.Just to be completely clear: as a Portis owner, I really hope that you and Bayhawks are right.
dgreen
Footballguy
Since when is 19-79 not doing jack? Sure, it's not great. Sure, it's not what was expected. But, it's not like he was 19-45. IMO, he simply didn't get the ball enough. His 20th or 21st carry could have easily gone for another 25 yards and possibly a TD. The difference between the start of last year and the start of this year is Zorn isn't feeding Portis enough. And, when he is feeding him, it's in predictable situations. Last year, Portis was scoring on spread draws from the 7 on 3rd and goal. They were an unpredictable offense the first half of the season. And, yes, the OL was better at run blocking at the beginning of last year. They've fallen off a little.
I agree. I'm not a scout. And I could be overly optimistic.
He took himself out quite often last year. It's actually been a complaint by Redskins fans for years. Betts played 25-30 plays in 6 of his 12 games last year. He saw plenty of PT.
I didn't say the OL would improve. I don't think it will. The only way it gets better is if some of their unproven backups are studs just awaiting their turn. I don't think that will happen, though.
I don't think there's much that separates most QBs in that range. It's a fine line. What I see is a QB that CAN succeed. I don't know if he will. There were some stats recently about Campbell's numbers from last year when he had time to throw. In many categories, he was a top 5 QB when he had time. The problem was he rarely had time last year, especially in the second half of the season. So far this year, the pass protection has looked pretty good. Consequently, Campbell has completed 69% of his passes for 7.4 yds/att. He's had two TDs dropped. But, as one Skins columnist says about Campbell:
Code:
This is no longer about his progress; it's about his results.Maybe he had a bad game? That happens. Maybe the play-calling wasn't good? (That's my opinion, BTW) Just because a guy faces a "weak" defense doesn't guarantee you he'll go off. ADP ONLY had 15 carries for 92 yards and 1 TD against the Lions. That isn't what his owners were expecting, either. Does that mean he's not the #1 FF RB?
He's not less explosive than last year, IMO. He's not the same back he was in Denver, that's for sure, but he hasn't been that back for a while.
I can remember many occasions when he pulled himself out of games-it has always annoyed me. Also, Portis doesn't come out of the game every 3rd down play. According to the Data Dominator, Washington has run 25 plays on 3rd down so far. Portis has 3 carries, Betts has 2. Neither has any targets. In 2007, Portis had 21 rushes & 11 targets on 3rd down. Betts had 9 rushes and 14 targets.In 2008, Portis had 27 rushes & 13 targets on 3rd down. Betts had 7 rushes and 13 targets.It doesn't appear to be much different from the previous two years, despite pre-season coach-speak to the contrary.
I don't know if it will improve, but I don't know that it won't. The fact is that they faced the NYG in game 1, and the Rams in game 2. In game two, they played better than game 1, as far as the run game goes.
I'm not concerned with how people perceive him, but rather how he plays. I really believe that he isn't being given much opportunity for success. The play-calling leaves something to be desired, IMO. They appear too predictable, and if an NFL defense knows what is coming, it's going to be hard for Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson to be successful.
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
very thoughtful replies Bayhawks and dgreen, thanks. your optimism is infectious.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Portis' matchup this week just got a little sweeter.
ALLEN PARK, Mich. -- Detroit Lions coach Jim Schwartz says there's a good chance linebacker Ernie Sims will miss some time with a "fairly significant" shoulder injury.
Sims has made 14 tackles for Detroit (0-2) this season. He was injured in Sunday's loss to Minnesota.
Sims has not missed a game since the Lions drafted him three years ago. He is the only player on Detroit's active roster selected by former general manager Matt Millen between the 2002-06 NFL drafts.
Schwartz says he does not know how long Sims will be out, adding Sims does have more than a day-to-day injury. The Lions host the Redskins this weekend.
ALLEN PARK, Mich. -- Detroit Lions coach Jim Schwartz says there's a good chance linebacker Ernie Sims will miss some time with a "fairly significant" shoulder injury.
Sims has made 14 tackles for Detroit (0-2) this season. He was injured in Sunday's loss to Minnesota.
Sims has not missed a game since the Lions drafted him three years ago. He is the only player on Detroit's active roster selected by former general manager Matt Millen between the 2002-06 NFL drafts.
Schwartz says he does not know how long Sims will be out, adding Sims does have more than a day-to-day injury. The Lions host the Redskins this weekend.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Is Portis banged up still? Practicing or limited?
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I haven't seen any negative reports regarding Clinton's health. He didn't really hit his stride until week 4 last season, although he did have 99 total yards and 2 TDs in week 2. I think it takes him a couple of games to get into a groove because he never participates in the preseason.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
And Portis went on to have 1700+ total yards in 2008.We're about to find out if he fell of the cliff last November.
If he can't run against the teams left on his schedule he's definitely done. Personally, I think he's fine and is going to put together a solid 2009.puckalicious
Footballguy
Am I stupid for considering starting R.Bush over Portis? I regretted not doing it last week.
Last season Portis had 21-129-2 against STL and last week had 19-79-0.
Last season Portis had 24-126-0 against DET and this week will have ?-?-?
I don't think anything has changed with Portis, but WAS as a team is not looking good so far.
Last season Portis had 21-129-2 against STL and last week had 19-79-0.
Last season Portis had 24-126-0 against DET and this week will have ?-?-?
I don't think anything has changed with Portis, but WAS as a team is not looking good so far.
Whiplash Inc.
Footballguy
I sat on the couch this last sunday watching the game and I literally called every run play before it happened. The playcalling and OL are the biggest issues right now.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
I thought I read he was feeling unusually sore. Nothing major I guessGrahamburn said:
Grahamburn
Footballguy
He mentioned after week one that the 16 carries he had felt more like 30. Again, that has a lot to do with not taking hits in the preseason or practice during training camp. "Football Shape."He apparently has an ankle issue and was limited yesterday, but it doesn't look to be anything major.
dgreen
Footballguy
He limped off the field after one play in the 2nd quarter (I think) and returned to the game. I'm guessing it's just a little sore.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Good thing he hasn't turned 30 yet. :( Either way I like the match up this week and think he should put up numbers if healthy and hopefully does the same in the next couple weeks so I can trade him.
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baconisgood
Footballguy
LOL at "still elite". Thomas Jones has never been an elite back before last year- his 2nd best year was 1478 + 9 and all his other years are significantly behind it. what happened last year was that he got a great offensiveline together (some argue its top2-3 in the league) and put together a career year in a down year for RBs. You conveniently forget to mention that TJ had a "stunning" 3.6 y/c the year before (with a whole touchdown). Leon Washington put up 5.9 y/c last year- bettering his 2nd best by 0.9 y/c. Your analysis is a joke if you are using single seasons that are clear outliers from a players production as "proof" that its carries and not age that matter.
Maroney=Sped
Footballguy
This is exactly right as to Campbell. And remember that he had two drops on sure TD's this past Sunday. If that doesn't happen then his total numbers for the year are 500+ yards, 3 TD's and 1 INT, and nobody's talking about him sucking. He's making plays when he's allowed to, and they'll start hitting in the red zone too which should open things up for Portis. One thing to watch OTOH is the RG position. They lost Randy Thomas to injury, so they're either going to be starting Montgomery or Rinehart, and neither is particularly elite or experienced. That could create some problems.
thehornet
Footballguy
Your focusing too much on jones. chill buddy.
