Close Call JJones,KJones, McGahee, Droughns (1 Viewer)

[UFO]

Kind of like the close call threads I have seen in the past but let’s look at a range of RBs 13-16. Give your thoughts about this group and how you would tank them. Here is mine

Willis McGahee: Hear a good quote somewhere about his fantasy value, people either love or hate him, the people that love him will take him in the first round the people that hate him hate to see him available in the 2nd. Personally I think he had an off year and still was not terrible. I think the team gave up and McGahee was one of the first to the mail it in party. Maybe new coaching staff, some improvement will get him back to 2004 form.

Rueben Droughns: I feel Droughns could be the safest of this group. The guy put up 1600 yards on a terrible team that had not had a 1000 yard rusher since hair bands were hot. He also catches the ball well. The concern is TD production. I am not so much concerned about last year (he had limited scoring opportunities) but go back to 2004 in Denver when he also had a big yardage year but scored a really low amount of TDs on a Den offense where just about every RB gets double digit TDs. I would be willing to give him a shot as my #2, the organization obviously has confidence in him and it looks like Suggs will be gone.

Westbrook: I think he could have a huge year receiving with TO gone. Has performed every year. Every year I see him there and pass on him thinking he is too small and will certainly get banged up but he proves me wrong every year.

Julius Jones: I really really like Julius Jones, he has come up huge when healthy and the thing is his injuries have been pretty big fluke things (not a hammy one week, bruised knee or turf toe the next) broken bones and severe high ankle sprain. I love a RB on a parcells team but injuries and MBIII have me scared.

Kevin Jones: Talk about the ultimate tease. Guy has showed some big time talent (I know it was against a bunch of terrible D's in 2004) but none the less I believe he is a talent and like McGahee just got frustrated with the constant RBBC Marriuci employed. Could KJ develop into a better pass catcher or will he also be part of a RBBC this year. Drafting the RB (forget his name) that can catch balls does not have me confident.

 

[B. Nugget]

Willis McGahee: Hear a good quote somewhere about his fantasy value, people either love or hate him, the people that love him will take him in the first round the people that hate him hate to see him available in the 2nd. Personally I think he had an off year and still was not terrible. I think the team gave up and McGahee was one of the first to the mail it in party. Maybe new coaching staff, some improvement will get him back to 2004 form.

Cool, I got quoted in the shark poolI too feel like Droughns could be the safest, but he sure isn't the sexy pick that makes the other owners throw their hands up in disgust when you draft him before it gets back to them.

If it was PPR, Westbrook would win this hands down.

B. Nuget

 

[MLBrandow]

Westbrook: Why is he in this group? Add his receiving and rushing numbers together and you get a stud back. People seem to believe that you have to have 1000+ yards rushing to be a real RB.... and he goes underrated every year. FF does not discriminate... receiving and rushing count for the same in almost every league. Solid value in the 2nd round (and especially third), but he is a legitimate first rounder.

McGahee should have a big year. Much of his success depends on the passing game which I do not have faith in at all. I think Evans will break out regardless of who's at QB, but he's just one man. If McGahee can avoid seeing eight and 9-man fronts for most of the game, he'll be a stud for sure. Think what you will about his character, but he's a star on a habitually bad team. There is still too much in question for me to make a knowledgable projection for this guy, but I'd say he has solid value as a base #2 RB with the potential for stud back status. Definitely worth the risk as your #2, but I wouldn't gamble on him as my #1 at this point.

Droughns is a decent #2 back. He's not going to be a stud, but he's got dependability, which means a lot to some owners. I'd draft him as a solid #2 with low risk and low potential to exceed RB2 numbers. If you're looking for stability, I'd say Droughns is probably your next Jamal Lewis.

Julius Jones: The writing is on the wall for me, and I'm pretty bent on avoiding anyone in a Cowboys uniform this year. They and the Dolphins are probablly the two most overrated teams in the NFL this offseason, and both will struggle to hit .500. To me, a guy that is probably toting the rock 60% of the time at best, and RBBC at worst is not worth anything more than a high risk RB2 pick with the potential for decent RB2 numbers. The attitude is there, but I'm not sure he'll have a stable enough team around him to succeed. Definitely a buyer beware product.

Kevin Jones: I do have complete faith in him as capable of being a stud RB in this league. However, I don't believe he has the right parameters for success in Detroit. Already being surrounded by a bunch of underachievers, you're going to see a big conflict of tempo philosophy with Martz and Marinelli. I do believe Jones will emerge late this year or next year as a very adept pass-catching RB, and I have a sneaky suspicion he might turn into a goal-line monster, but there are too many variables in this new system to make him more than a RB2 gamble with upside to tier 2 RB1 status IMO.

 

[einstein2u]

chester taylor should be on this list.

 

[aposulli]

Kind of like the close call threads I have seen in the past but let’s look at a range of RBs 13-16. Give your thoughts about this group and how you would tank them. Here is mine

Willis McGahee: Hear a good quote somewhere about his fantasy value, people either love or hate him, the people that love him will take him in the first round the people that hate him hate to see him available in the 2nd. Personally I think he had an off year and still was not terrible. I think the team gave up and McGahee was one of the first to the mail it in party. Maybe new coaching staff, some improvement will get him back to 2004 form.

Rueben Droughns: I feel Droughns could be the safest of this group. The guy put up 1600 yards on a terrible team that had not had a 1000 yard rusher since hair bands were hot. He also catches the ball well. The concern is TD production. I am not so much concerned about last year (he had limited scoring opportunities) but go back to 2004 in Denver when he also had a big yardage year but scored a really low amount of TDs on a Den offense where just about every RB gets double digit TDs. I would be willing to give him a shot as my #2, the organization obviously has confidence in him and it looks like Suggs will be gone.

Westbrook: I think he could have a huge year receiving with TO gone. Has performed every year. Every year I see him there and pass on him thinking he is too small and will certainly get banged up but he proves me wrong every year.

Julius Jones: I really really like Julius Jones, he has come up huge when healthy and the thing is his injuries have been pretty big fluke things (not a hammy one week, bruised knee or turf toe the next) broken bones and severe high ankle sprain. I love a RB on a parcells team but injuries and MBIII have me scared.

Kevin Jones: Talk about the ultimate tease. Guy has showed some big time talent (I know it was against a bunch of terrible D's in 2004) but none the less I believe he is a talent and like McGahee just got frustrated with the constant RBBC Marriuci employed. Could KJ develop into a better pass catcher or will he also be part of a RBBC this year. Drafting the RB (forget his name) that can catch balls does not have me confident.

in a PPR format...11. Westbrook

12. R.Johnson

13. McGahee

14. D.Davis

next tier:

15. K.Jones

16. C.Taylor (high, I know)

17. R.Bush

18. J.Lewis

19/20. Droughns

19/20. Dunn

end of tier...

Along with the Denver/Chicago RBs plus guys like Parker, Dillon and Foster, I lump JJ... IMO the most fragile starter outside of Foster, plus MBIII could steal some carries

 

[skillz]

The concern I have with Kevin Jones outside of those discussed already is his inability to stay healthy. He always seems to get nicked up during games last year and did not play through the injury. Nothing is worse than watching your starting RB leave the game in the first quarter. I just don't want to deal with that type of headache this year. Also, with Calhoun being drafted, if Jones does not stay on the field, he may lose the job completely now that there appears to be a legitimate RB2 to go to. I am staying away from him unless he drops so far that its too much value to pass up (won't happen though since I play in a Lions homer league).

 

[Tom Servo]

Since I play in a 16 team league, these guys would be at the end of round 1/start of round 2.

The concern I have with Kevin Jones outside of those discussed already is his inability to stay healthy. He always seems to get nicked up during games last year and did not play through the injury. Nothing is worse than watching your starting RB leave the game in the first quarter. I just don't want to deal with that type of headache this ANY year.

Fixed. I think we can agree on this one...

 

[broncofan13000]

chester taylor should be on this list.

i love getting him in the third round of almost every draft that i've been in.

 

[sholditch]

I would def. put McGahee on this list but something about him scared me enough to pass on him as a RB2 at the 2.06 in an inaugural dynasty draft. I think it was the fact he's never gotten over 4.0 ypc. PLus there's the knee injury though he has looked sold since. As far as film he dances around behind the line too much and doesn't seem to have the ability to see a hole before it develops. That to me signals that he might not ever be a stud, which I guess is why I went with a proven wideout instead

Droughns: The lack of TDs over the past two years is too troubling not to take into account. Also, his penchant for spousal abuse is a bit troubling.

KJ: Still a one-hit wonder in my mind. Has not even had one decent season, but I will have a close eye on him and seriously consider him against DeAngelo Williams and Cedric Benson if he falls to 3.07

CT: Since he was left off, I went over Chester's numbers over the past two years as a backup, and the games where he saw less than ten carries he averaged something like 6 ypc and did great. In games where he got the rock ten times or more, including a few 20+ games, his ypc shoots way down. In fact, when forced to shoulder the entire load, he has had exactly one good game and one decent game in two years. With all the RBs in Minny, I see him sharing the ball a lot this year.

 

[aposulli]

The concern I have with Kevin Jones outside of those discussed already is his inability to stay healthy. He always seems to get nicked up during games last year and did not play through the injury. Nothing is worse than watching your starting RB leave the game in the first quarter. I just don't want to deal with that type of headache this year. Also, with Calhoun being drafted, if Jones does not stay on the field, he may lose the job completely now that there appears to be a legitimate RB2 to go to. I am staying away from him unless he drops so far that its too much value to pass up (won't happen though since I play in a Lions homer league).

I have the same feeling about JJ.KJ has missed only 4 games in his career, while JJ has missed 11.

Both had injuries in college as well, but I believe JJs were more serious.

 

[aposulli]

CT: Since he was left off, I went over Chester's numbers over the past two years as a backup, and the games where he saw less than ten carries he averaged something like 6 ypc and did great. In games where he got the rock ten times or more, including a few 20+ games, his ypc shoots way down. In fact, when forced to shoulder the entire load, he has had exactly one good game and one decent game in two years. With all the RBs in Minny, I see him sharing the ball a lot this year.

Couldve said the same thing about Lamont Jordan. Only two games over 100 yds.

 

[sholditch]

perhaps but take a look at his logs. His bad games were TERRIBLE

 

[broncofan13000]

CT: Since he was left off, I went over Chester's numbers over the past two years as a backup, and the games where he saw less than ten carries he averaged something like 6 ypc and did great. In games where he got the rock ten times or more, including a few 20+ games, his ypc shoots way down. In fact, when forced to shoulder the entire load, he has had exactly one good game and one decent game in two years. With all the RBs in Minny, I see him sharing the ball a lot this year.

Couldve said the same thing about Lamont Jordan. Only two games over 100 yds.

Minny's Oline looks stacked as well. Plus CT can catch out of the backfield, and has the support of Childress. I think that you're giving Minny's other backs too much credit CF hasn't done anything to justify an increase in playing time, and MM, while talented, is too injury prone, and looks to be a fixture on the special teams.

 

[3nOut]

I would def. put McGahee on this list ... As far as film he dances around behind the line too much and doesn't seem to have the ability to see a hole before it develops.

This was addressed last year and was stopped. Unfortunately after that, so were his big games. I think Jauron will let him go back to his original style and let him "dance". McGahee will be a solid #2 this year.