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Close Calls - Eddie Lacy -VS- David Wilson (1 Viewer)
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Koya
Footballguy
This is an interesting one. I'd go Lacy right now as he is the clear #1 back, will get goalines and might even get some 3rd down play. His offense is just awesome and I could see a decently high ceiling. It appears he has blocked pretty well and there's not another back on the roster that's really shown us anything. Lacy could be a workhorse who gets GL looks in one of the leagues top 2 offenses.
Wilson has a higher ceiling imo, and probably more raw talent, but a lot more question marks as it pertains to role, now that D Harris is likely done for the year. If it all comes together for Wilson, he 'could' reach elite status (1500-1800 total yards, 10-12+ TDs), and I don't see those yards happening from Lacy, but again, that is if it ALL comes together for Wilson. As of now, he is not the GL back and not the 3rd down back. He'd need to get more TDs than I'd expect and more touches overall to come close to the admittedly very high ceiling.
Wilson has a higher ceiling imo, and probably more raw talent, but a lot more question marks as it pertains to role, now that D Harris is likely done for the year. If it all comes together for Wilson, he 'could' reach elite status (1500-1800 total yards, 10-12+ TDs), and I don't see those yards happening from Lacy, but again, that is if it ALL comes together for Wilson. As of now, he is not the GL back and not the 3rd down back. He'd need to get more TDs than I'd expect and more touches overall to come close to the admittedly very high ceiling.
Khy
Footballguy
Wilson and Wilson... I'm still of the opinion that people are getting way ahead of themselves with Lacy's situation. We can talk about how Lacy is a clear cut #1 and will get goalline carries etc. etc.but I can't help but look at how awful the Packers O-Line is and the history the team has the past few seasons from a rushing perspective. Yes, Lacy is the most talented back they've had in awhile but still... everyone talking about him seeing 1000+ yards and double digit TDs should really temper expectations in my opinion. The Packers didn't even rush for double digit TDs as a TEAM in the past three seasons. Let alone as one man.
2012: 433 Total Attempts, 1702 total yards, 3.9ypc, 9 TDs (7)
2011: 395 Total Attempts, 1558 total yards, 3.9ypc, 12 TDs (9)
2010: 421 Total Attempts, 1606 total yards, 3.8ypc, 11 TDs (7)
Compare this to the past three seasons for the Giants...
2012: 409 Total Attempts, 1862 total yards, 4.6ypc, 18 TDs
2011: 411 Total Attempts, 1427 total yards, 3.5ypc, 17 TDs (16)
2010: 480 Total Attempts, 2200 total yards, 4.6ypc, 17 TDs
The Packers "goal line" job doesn't really amount to much... we're talking equal amount of touches between the two teams but the Giants tend to score almost double the rushing TDs each season. Also take note that of these TDs... in 2010 Rodgers ran for 4 of the teams 11 TDs, 3 of their 12 in 2011 and 2 of their 9 in 2012. Eli has 1 total rushing TD in the past 3 seasons in 2011 which means that of those numbers 18, 17, 17 they were more or less all attributed to the RBs. So sure, this could just be a stupid comparison because neither of these seasons included Lacy or Wilson I just take it as a look at team tendencies. The Packers tend to lean towards passing in the Red Zone, the Giants lean towards rushing. The amount of attempts each back will get should be near identical however. The Giants also post better YPC average by about .7 YPC each year... 2011 was kind of an outlier as they had both RBs go down for long periods of time; neither Jacobs or Bradshaw was healthy for that entire season.
2012: 433 Total Attempts, 1702 total yards, 3.9ypc, 9 TDs (7)
2011: 395 Total Attempts, 1558 total yards, 3.9ypc, 12 TDs (9)
2010: 421 Total Attempts, 1606 total yards, 3.8ypc, 11 TDs (7)
Compare this to the past three seasons for the Giants...
2012: 409 Total Attempts, 1862 total yards, 4.6ypc, 18 TDs
2011: 411 Total Attempts, 1427 total yards, 3.5ypc, 17 TDs (16)
2010: 480 Total Attempts, 2200 total yards, 4.6ypc, 17 TDs
The Packers "goal line" job doesn't really amount to much... we're talking equal amount of touches between the two teams but the Giants tend to score almost double the rushing TDs each season. Also take note that of these TDs... in 2010 Rodgers ran for 4 of the teams 11 TDs, 3 of their 12 in 2011 and 2 of their 9 in 2012. Eli has 1 total rushing TD in the past 3 seasons in 2011 which means that of those numbers 18, 17, 17 they were more or less all attributed to the RBs. So sure, this could just be a stupid comparison because neither of these seasons included Lacy or Wilson I just take it as a look at team tendencies. The Packers tend to lean towards passing in the Red Zone, the Giants lean towards rushing. The amount of attempts each back will get should be near identical however. The Giants also post better YPC average by about .7 YPC each year... 2011 was kind of an outlier as they had both RBs go down for long periods of time; neither Jacobs or Bradshaw was healthy for that entire season.
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Koya
Footballguy
Really solid post and some good points.
I guess those of us who lean Lacy feel that part of the lack of rushing TDs from GB has been not only their line, but the lack of a back to get the job done.
IMO, Lacy might be a bit more consistent as a #2 back, but Wilson a better shot as a #3 that has true #1 upside. If that makes sense.
I should add that while it has no bearing in logic, the manlove for Wilson on this board scares me... seen the hype too many times. I believe from a talent perspective it's justified, but that the hype has exceeded the logic to justify it. He's a lot of fun to watch, and hopefully I'll be wrong and instead of having a really nice season, he will have a monster one. Just too concerned about roles at this point to jump head first.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Wilson was ranked higher as a high school recruit than Lacy was- http://espn.go.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/databaseresults/_/sportid/24/class/2009/sort/grade/order/true/starsfilter/GT/ratingfilter/GT/rating/76/position/RB/statuscommit/Commitments/statusuncommit/Uncommited
Wilson was taken end of the 1st round NFL draft Lacy end of the 2nd round.
The Giants were top 5 in runs of 10 or more yards in 2012 while the Packers were near the bottom. I think this is a good indication of the quality of run blocking, a runner will not get many 10+ yard runs with out some good blocking.
The frequency that Wilson has been able to break off long runs has been exceptional with limited touches so far. If that frequency of explosive plays continues he will do very well even with a time share with Brown.
I have more concern about Lacy's durability than I do about Wilson's.
I agree this is a close call for redraft leagues (I think Wilson much better in dynasty) due to Wilsons time share with Brown, but if these are the only 2 choices I prefer Wilson.
Both RB might be being over drafted right now.
Wilson was taken end of the 1st round NFL draft Lacy end of the 2nd round.
The Giants were top 5 in runs of 10 or more yards in 2012 while the Packers were near the bottom. I think this is a good indication of the quality of run blocking, a runner will not get many 10+ yard runs with out some good blocking.
The frequency that Wilson has been able to break off long runs has been exceptional with limited touches so far. If that frequency of explosive plays continues he will do very well even with a time share with Brown.
I have more concern about Lacy's durability than I do about Wilson's.
I agree this is a close call for redraft leagues (I think Wilson much better in dynasty) due to Wilsons time share with Brown, but if these are the only 2 choices I prefer Wilson.
Both RB might be being over drafted right now.
Koya
Footballguy
This really hits on it. Drafts are about value. Until recently, Lacy could be had pretty late in some drafts. He was barely on my radar and I took him very late 6th round... that's obviously changed now (the draft was last week).
Wilson has had a lot of hype for a while, and although many might have tempered enthusiasm, it only takes one owner per draft to jump the gun - and that threat sometimes gets others to jump the gun even sooner. This will be a curious week as to Lacy's ADP. Wilson has already been going too high for my taste in most drafts.
T with T
Footballguy
adrenaline
Footballguy
Not really wanting either of these guys this year. Lacy if facing one of the toughest RB schedules & has a brutal line. Wilson also is facing one of the toughest RB schedules with a better line. Lacy is an every down back, I'm giving him the nod in both formats, also cheaper.
Is there some myth going around that Wilson has better hands?
Is there some myth going around that Wilson has better hands?
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Harris goes down and this suddenly becomes an interesting question. Will Lacy be an every down back? The Pack need Lacy to be a stud and they are going to give him enough carries to find out.
cheatsheetwarroom
Footballguy
I think Wilson is the obvious answer. Even if they are comparable in ability there are just more yards to go around in New York.
In New York there were 1862 rushing yards and 18 rushing TD to spread around, in Green Bay there were 1702 rushing yards and 9 TDs. Also the top back in New York put up 1015 yards and 6TDs while the top back in Green Bay put up 464 yards and 0 TDs. So you can probably expect Green Bay to use many more backs.
In New York there were 1862 rushing yards and 18 rushing TD to spread around, in Green Bay there were 1702 rushing yards and 9 TDs. Also the top back in New York put up 1015 yards and 6TDs while the top back in Green Bay put up 464 yards and 0 TDs. So you can probably expect Green Bay to use many more backs.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
good post...cheatsheetwarroom said:
my only question, while it is true there may be some systemic issues with GB run blocking where we should respect and give our due to the weight of history, as it were... we could probably also make a case that lacy could be the most talented RB the packers have had since ahman green in his prime (not sure if i am forgetting anybody, this is off the top of my head... ryan grant had a good season or two, but not an elite, blue chip talent, that probably spoke to gaping holes he ran through)... we almost have to throw out what the stats say about GB run game past few years...
someone upthread mentioned he was end of round two pick, but that was because of in some cases teams fearing he wouldn't have a long career, maybe more of a dynasty than redraft issue... i think more people were surprised that he fell than would have been if say rams took him around 1.22 (if they hadn't traded down and got ogletree)...
all that said, my biggest question with lacy is can he stay healthy... also, he looked like earl campbell against rams, but not so great last game...
it could be close in redraft, i prefer wilson... wilson by wide margin in dynasty...
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Touchdown There
Footballguy
Can Lacy stay healthy? We know Lacy is coming in hot, so the other side of that question is "What if Lacy stays healthy?"
Half in the bag
Footballguy
I'm a believer in Wilsons talent, just not a believer in him getting a starters share of the goal line touches. I cant see Lacy being pulled to the sidelines when GB are at the stripe. Very intrigued by both these RB's because I think both will get 60%+ of their teams carries, but the goal line touches will favor Lacy.
Khy
Footballguy
I really wish I could understand this completely... What do we consider goal line touches? I consider them anything from within 5 yards of the goal line... so lets see.
Preseason Game 1: David Wilson 5 First team carries - 1 of which was from within the 5 yard line. Andre Brown - 0 first team carries - 0 of which were from within the 5 yard line.
Preseason Game 2: David Wilson 8 First team carries - 1 of which was from within the 5 yard line. Andre Brown - 8 First Team Carries - 0 of which were from within the 5 yard line.
Preseason Game 3: David Wilson 5 First team carries - 0 of which was from within the 5 yard line. Andre Brown - 7 First Team Carries - 2 of which were from within the 5 yard line.
Now... bear in mind here. In preseason game three... Wilson saw every first quarter carry and Brown didn't see one until Q2 when Wilson was done. Wilson clearly didn't do anything wrong to be pulled so it's not really a knock to him that he didn't see a carry again with the first team. The point I'm making here really is where is this idea that Brown is going to get goal line carries coming from? Can someone give me something a coach said on the team? Coughlin... Gilbride... Ingram? Did anyone say something to this effect "David is going to be our early down guy. Andre will come in for most of our short yardage plays though". If anything, Wilson has out performed Brown on the few short yardage plays we've seen each of them take this season. Just because Brown's bigger doesn't mean he's better at that role... we've seen this in the past with Jacobs and Bradshaw when Jacobs wore down a little bit and just got plugged at the LoS on every short down play. And Bradshaw was just small enough to sneak through the cracks on them for the scores. We could see the same thing with Wilson and Brown... my main point is people are just manifesting this goal line thing right now. The only thing we've really gotten a good look at is Brown being in on a lot of 3rd down passing plays; note not all of them though. Wilson's been in on a lot of third downs where he runs a chip block passing route. Which if anything is GOOD news for Wilson owners.
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Is this schtick?
Pots
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
back-to-back pick picks for me 2 weeks ago in start 2QB, ½ppr.
6.12/7.01 (Essentially 4/5 or 5/6 in a normal 1 QB league)
Selected Wilson first, followed by Lacy. Would still do it the same.
6.12/7.01 (Essentially 4/5 or 5/6 in a normal 1 QB league)
Selected Wilson first, followed by Lacy. Would still do it the same.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Wilson for me.
steveski
Footballguy
I like Lacy this year, but this is just absurd. If you ever pass over Wilson for Lacy then you'll regret it. Search YouTube for David Wilson Rookie Highlights if you happen to forget what this guy can do. The Andre Brown worry is a joke. Do people worry about Bush taking carries from Forte? Or Tate from Foster? Everyone was worried about Hillis taking away carries from Charles last year. Stop worrying and open your eyes.
Tell me what team in the league has a full blown RBBC when one guy is leaps and bounds more talented than the other?
Tell me what team in the league has a full blown RBBC when one guy is leaps and bounds more talented than the other?
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Khy
Footballguy
The answer to your question would be... there isn't one. I define an RBBC by two RBs on the same team who have over 150 carries (not caused by injury or replacing the starter) as that is usually the marker where I'd say a second RB starts to cut into the 'starters' field time. And that doesn't actually exist in the NFL today. We either have teams with a solid starting RB or teams that don't run the ball much. There literally isn't a team that meets that criteria. But otherwise the RBBC doesn't really exist...lets go by division for 2012.
AFC East
Jets: Shonn Greene: 276 | Bilal Powell: 110
Patriots: Stevan Ridley: 290 | Danny Woodhead: 76
Bills: CJ Spiller: 207 | Fred Jackson: 115
Dolphins: Reggie Bush: 227 | Daniel Thomas: 91
AFC North
Ravens: Ray Rice: 257 | Bernard Pierce: 108
Browns: Trent Richardson: 267 | Montario Hardesty: 65
Steelers: Johnathan Dwyer: 156 | Isaac Redman: 110
Bengals: BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 278 | Cedric Peerman: 36
AFC South
Texans: Arian Foster: 351 | Ben Tate: 65
Jaguars: Rashad Jennings: 101 | Maurice Jones-Drew: 86
Colts: Vick Ballard: 211 | Donald Brown: 108
Titans: Chris Johnson: 276 | Jamie Harper: 41
AFC West
Chargers: Ryan Mathews: 184 | Jackie Battle: 95
Broncos: Willis McGahee: 167 | Knowshon Moreno: 138
Raiders: Darren McFadden: 216 | Marcel Reece: 59
Chiefs: Jamaal Charles: 285 | Peyton Hillis: 85
NFC East
Cowboys: DeMarco Murray: 161 | Felix Jones: 111
Redskins: Alfred Morris: 335 | Evan Royster: 23
Eagles: LeSean McCoy: 200 | Bryce Brown: 115
Giants: Ahmad Bradshaw: 221 | Andre Brown: 73
NFC North
Lions: Mikel LeShoure: 215 | Joique Bell: 82
Bears: Matt Forte: 248 | Michael Bush: 114
Vikings: Adrian Peterson: 348 | Toby Gerhart: 50
Packers: Alex Green: 135 | James Starks: 71
NFC South
Bucs: Doug Martin: 319 | LaGarrette Blount: 41
Falcons: Michael Turner: 222 | Jacquizz Rodgers: 94
Panthers: DeAngelo Williams: 173 | Johnathan Stewart: 93
Saints: Mark Ingram: 156 | Pierre Thomas: 105
NFC West
Cardinals: LaRod Stephens-Howling: 110 | Beanie Wells: 88
49ers: Frank Gore: 258 | Kendall Hunter: 72
Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch: 315 | Robert Turbin: 80
Rams: Steven Jackson: 258 | Daryl Richardson: 98
The teams listed in Italics experienced significant injuries to their RB corps throughout the season or a changing of starters. In the end though, there really isn't a true RBBC in the league. The closest thing to it would be the Saints. And the Panthers probably would be if J-Stew could ever stay healthy. But the simple fact remains a true starter in this league usually ends the season with around 250 carries on the year. And a true talent usually gets closer to 300. All this fear about there being a true RBBC in NY is ridiculous.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I am not worried so much about the number of carries just about where those carries will likely happen (the goal line) and you should be too.
Bush and A.Brown are two of the best runners in the league when their teams need 1 yard for a first down or touchdown. Brown was no joke as a runner either (5.3 ypc) and Brown has also been much more competent than Wilson in the passing game, picking up blitzes in particular although I hear Wilson is improved in that area. So while Wilson will certainly be the guy between the 20s I absolutely see Brown as the guy at the stripe.
The upside is that Brown has never been able to stay healthy and his running style appears to be punishing so I think the Giants will limit his carries. While Wilson will crush him in yardage if there is a favorite for double digit rushing TDs on the Giants it's A.Brown by a mile.
steveski
Footballguy
I don't see why everyone is so certain Brown will be getting the carries. What makes you so certain? Wilson can leap over a pile or pound it in through the middle just like Brown can. He's not built like a Jamaal Charles or someone you'd never run up the gut on the goal line. Only reason I see them pulling Wilson at the goal line is if he's winded from getting a bunch of carries on that drive and marching down the field. They aren't going to throw a deep pass and bring it down to the 5 and pull him just because Brown is the goal line guy. I think Browns job will be to give Wilson a breather. As long as Wilson can keep up with his improvement on blocking, there is no reason to take a guy like Wilson off the field. I've said it before, but this situation feels a lot like the FJax and Spiller situation. FJax is a great runner and can definitely produce, but he doesn't have the ability to take one the distance every time he touches the ball like Spiller. As long as Spiller can pass block and handle being an every down back, why take him off the field?
Khy
Footballguy
This has been said in several other threads. But Brown had just as many critiques from the coaching staff on his pass blocking as Wilson did last season. So saying he was "much more competent than Wilson in the passing game" really holds no ground at all. Besides that, all preseason Brown has been abysmal in short yardage situations. So to say he's a favorite for double-digit TDs by a mile also holds little ground.
If I had to guess it's more likely they end up splitting short yardage carries throughout the season. Last season between Wilson, Brown and Bradshaw there was about 30 goal line attempts (within 5 yards). Bradshaw saw 14, Brown saw 12, and Wilson saw 4 was the split. Now Bradshaw got those carries by being the starting RB. Assuming Bradshaw's carries go to the new starting RB (David Wilson) it wouldn't be wrong to draw the conclusion that you'll see something along the lines of like 16 for Wilson and 12 for Brown. Possibly even less than 12 as 3 of those carries came in the Carolina game that he started in and 2 of them in the Tampa game that Bradshaw went out in.
So yeah, I would have to assume from looking at last seasons stats assuming roughly the same number of goal line carries to last season. You'll see somewhere near a 60/40 split in goal line carries between them. Probably about 14-18 for Wilson and about 10-12 for Brown. Obviously, these numbers could fluctuate if either one has issues scoring in short yardage situations. So far Brown has been struggling with them in the preseason and Wilson hasn't.
EDIT: New post from Rotoworld also goes towards making my point more interesting:
The carries are already being split and Brown isn't necessarily performing any better than Wilson. If he can't punch in those tough 1-2 yard TDs like he did all last season he'll lose that job quickly if Wilson is able to perform the role. He'll essentially just become a guy they toss in for the occasional change of pace and to pass block on 3 and 4 wide sets.
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I would agree that Wilson should be ahead of Lacy. However, if Andre Brown does end up with the majority of the goal line carries, Lacy could very well finish ahead of Wilson at years end.
Lacy is the best RB the Packers have had since Ahman Green's glory days. Trying to use stats from the last few seasons to project Lacy's numbers isn't a good idea. The Packers would certainly like to be more balanced on offense. They just haven't had the RB to do it for years.
The Packers weren't nearly as successful in throwing the ball down field last year because teams just played them deep. They need to run Lacy effectively to break that deep shell that teams have used against them.
Lacy is the best RB the Packers have had since Ahman Green's glory days. Trying to use stats from the last few seasons to project Lacy's numbers isn't a good idea. The Packers would certainly like to be more balanced on offense. They just haven't had the RB to do it for years.
The Packers weren't nearly as successful in throwing the ball down field last year because teams just played them deep. They need to run Lacy effectively to break that deep shell that teams have used against them.
He had one of those Wilson runs last year or two years ago; I forget. Took one like 60+ yards to the house in the final preseason game. And he's been buried on the depth chart since then. He's one big reason I'm not falling in love with Wilson right now. One big run does not a season make. If Wilson can't pass protect well he won't be a feature back; it's that simple.
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Khy
Footballguy
Wilson has only had one big run...? What? Wilson had 71 carries last year and literally has like a 6 minute highlight reel of "big runs". You must be thinking of the wrong player.
He had 5 runs of 20+ yards and 2 of 40+ yards in 71 carries... extrapolated to a full seasons amount of carries? Only Adrian Peterson had a better 20 yard run ratio.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Wilson flashed more than one big run but Andre Brown was someone that Coughlin seemed to trust and value so I worried that he might take away some important touches from Wilson. I know the NFL is all about "next man up" but I am not sure Coughlin has the same kind of confidence in Scott as he did in Brown so I think it makes Wilson much more attractive at this point.
Chaka
Footballguy
Come on now. Coughlin has loved using two backs since coming to the GIants, it wasn't a stretch to think that a player who produced at a high level, like Brown, was going to vulture some key touches from Wilson (a guy who was repeatedly and publicly criticized for his lack of ability in pass protection last season).
Now that he out for 6 weeks or so I think Wilson's value skyrockets, could be the next Tiki for all we know, but that outcome isn't a slam dunk by any stretch of the imagination.
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