Here's the post where I did my annual estimate of how many "unhooked" white kids got into Princeton last year. My guess was 283 boys and 283 girls.
Based on the story Biggie linked, let's do a quick estimate of the Harvard class of 2018 (admitted in 2014).
When that Class was admitted, here were the stats Harvard released:
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2014/03/college-admits-class-of-18/
2,023 accepted
12% African American
13% Latinx
19.7 Asian American
2% Native American
10% international students.
That's 56.7% of the class, leaving 43.3% as white - 876 students. We now know that on average from 2014-2018, 43% of those 876 white students were legacy, athletes, or donors. That's 377 kids. Subtract those 377 from the 876 white students and
you are left with 499 "ordinary" white kids who got into Harvard in 2014. So 250 boys and 249 girls in the entire USA. Makes my Princeton estimate look pretty good!
It's probably only gotten harder since then, as the surge in acceptance for "First Generation" college students is eating away even further at the spots left available for typical middle/upper middle class kids.
I will say that I don't have a huge problem with how the elite schools fill their classes. They are private institutions with their own goals and priorities and can enroll whatever students they think will help attain them. But I think people whose kids are going through the process right now should be aware that their son, for example, needs to be one of the top 300-400 male high school students in the entire country to have a realistic shot at getting in.
I also think this trend is going to ultimately whittle down the impact of earning an undergraduate degree from one of these schools. The amazing kids that used to get into HYP but can't anymore are now going elsewhere and elevating those other colleges. And the kids populating the HYP classrooms - while still worthy applicants - aren't necessarily the most meritorious representative of their age cohort, as they used to be. At this point, you will find plenty of kids in college classrooms across the USA that are the equal of those currently enrolled at Harvard and Yale. Just my two cents.