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College WR Keon Coleman, Florida State (1 Viewer)

NFL Rookie Watch
Keon Coleman is reportedly thought to have “serious” Top-10 pick potential by several NFL scouts.

Some NFL scouts even believe Coleman has “shades” of names like Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, and Michael Thomas.
Many NFL scouts reportedly believe Coleman has a “strong case” for WR2 right now and is one of the most “athletically gifted” WR prospects of recent memory.
Dino Babers (Syracuse HC) said God was “showing off” when he created Coleman.

The Seminoles WR is SPECIAL
 
Addison Hayes
Keon Coleman is going to be an insanely polarizing prospect all draft season long. His tape is filled with highlight-reel plays and analytically he's a solid prospect too with a 19yo 20% breakout age and a 20yo 30% breakout age (same as Nabers/Franklin, better than Odunze).

But I'm out, because Coleman never posted a season with >2 yards per team pass attempt or 30% yards market share. It's. All. Touchdowns.

Since 2001, only 5 WRs have come out of college with the breakout ages Coleman has, but without a season >2 YPTPA:

- Keenan Howry
- Dominique Zeigler
- Aaron Dobson
- Dorial Green-Beckham🙃
- Auden Tate

Ummm...........

⬇️⬇️⬇️

Full video: youtu.be/tV0LMB0ji10
 
one-trick-pony (jump ball).
No shade thrown here I'm 100% interested in peoples comments and thoughts on this guy. I've seen a lot of people tossing this narrative out there but others who I trust in their scouting have said he's more than a 1 trick jump ball guy. I pick at 1.12 and it seems more and more likely this guy is slipping in early mock fantasy drafts. Could be a steal but I need to do more digging.
 
Watching closely here 'cuz I grabbed this guy with my last rookie/devy draft pick last summer and watched him zip up the boards all season. Now it seems he's being suppressed for one reason or another.
 
Big big FSU fan. Saw every game this year, sometimes multiple times. This guy is an absolute jump ball freak but he cannot separate at all. I don’t know if it’s a route running thing or he lacks top end speed but he just doesn’t do it. He runs stiff too, nothing he does looks flexible. I think he’s going to be a huge bust, unfortunately.

I don’t think I would take him before round 3.
 
Big big FSU fan. Saw every game this year, sometimes multiple times. This guy is an absolute jump ball freak but he cannot separate at all. I don’t know if it’s a route running thing or he lacks top end speed but he just doesn’t do it. He runs stiff too, nothing he does looks flexible. I think he’s going to be a huge bust, unfortunately.

I don’t think I would take him before round 3.
He may be in the range where I could get him in dynasty but I think I’m going to avoid. I don’t like receivers who don’t get separation and rely on winning 50/50 balls. Much harder to do at the NFL level than college. Getting N’Keal Harry flashbacks.
 
he's basically off my list, unless he falls to me with my 2.08 pick. Even then I may go for someone who is more of a dart throw than the "bust" I predict.
at best, i see him as a 6-7TD player, with minimal yardage.
 
I think Gabe Davis with better hops is my comp. Could produce in a sweet spot as a 2 in a vertical offense across from a good wr1 like Davis, but is probably going to struggle if he's the focus of the defense.

I watch a lot of Michigan State and his sophomore breakout you could definitely see the upside and rawness. He was more of a basketball recruit until very late in his recruitment, and also played BBall at MSU for a year. That sort of stuff highlights the athleticism, but I think it really delays WR development when guys do that.
I didn't watch him much at FSU besides the highlights, but it sounds like it was still athletic but raw there.
 
I was excited about him early in the season but I think I've come around to where most here are: N'Keal Harry and lack of separation are probably deal breakers here. Though his size and athleticism is special so if he does hit, it could be in a big way. I doubt it though.
 
Big big FSU fan. Saw every game this year, sometimes multiple times. This guy is an absolute jump ball freak but he cannot separate at all. I don’t know if it’s a route running thing or he lacks top end speed but he just doesn’t do it. He runs stiff too, nothing he does looks flexible. I think he’s going to be a huge bust, unfortunately.

I don’t think I would take him before round 3.
If I could write up the exact description of a WR I expect to bust, this would be it.

I used to be guilty of falling in love with the size and ignoring the separation issues. But, guys don't win that way consistently in the NFL. You're not going to have 1200 yards by running past or outjumping NFL defenders. You have to have more to your game than that.
 
Am I missing the boat on Coleman? A lot of bad things being said, including me that he is a high bust risk. I don’t want to be that guy because I closed my mind on him.
 
Am I missing the boat on Coleman? A lot of bad things being said, including me that he is a high bust risk. I don’t want to be that guy because I closed my mind on him.
I want to like him. He looked impressive when I saw him play this year. He no doubt has size and athleticism- plays like a basketball player. I am just feel snakebit after guys like N'Keal.
 
Am I missing the boat on Coleman? A lot of bad things being said, including me that he is a high bust risk. I don’t want to be that guy because I closed my mind on him.
I want to like him. He looked impressive when I saw him play this year. He no doubt has size and athleticism- plays like a basketball player. I am just feel snakebit after guys like N'Keal.
Yeah, the fantasy community is spooked by WRs like Coleman. Watch him turn out to be a league winner, LOL
 
Am I missing the boat on Coleman? A lot of bad things being said, including me that he is a high bust risk. I don’t want to be that guy because I closed my mind on him.
The last sentence is key for me. At some point, as he keeps dropping in ADP, he will be worth the risk. There are always big names that don't work out and there are guys people didn't like that do work out. The value might end up being there, especially if he keeps moving down in the 2nd round.
 
Hayden Winks
I get the Keon Coleman advanced stats look wonky, but damnit if the traits aren't just right there. Look at this burst & stop/start for a big WR.

you miss 100% of the shots you don't take

Only 37% of Keon's go, post, and corner targets were catchable if we're looking for reasons why his stats don't match the traits.

When he's got a chance, he can do things like this. Watch at 0.5x speed.
 

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