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WR Keon Coleman, BUF (3 Viewers)

NFL Rookie Watch
Keon Coleman is reportedly thought to have “serious” Top-10 pick potential by several NFL scouts.

Some NFL scouts even believe Coleman has “shades” of names like Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, and Michael Thomas.
Many NFL scouts reportedly believe Coleman has a “strong case” for WR2 right now and is one of the most “athletically gifted” WR prospects of recent memory.
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Dino Babers (Syracuse HC) said God was “showing off” when he created Coleman.

The Seminoles WR is SPECIAL
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Addison Hayes
Keon Coleman is going to be an insanely polarizing prospect all draft season long. His tape is filled with highlight-reel plays and analytically he's a solid prospect too with a 19yo 20% breakout age and a 20yo 30% breakout age (same as Nabers/Franklin, better than Odunze).

But I'm out, because Coleman never posted a season with >2 yards per team pass attempt or 30% yards market share. It's. All. Touchdowns.

Since 2001, only 5 WRs have come out of college with the breakout ages Coleman has, but without a season >2 YPTPA:

- Keenan Howry
- Dominique Zeigler
- Aaron Dobson
- Dorial Green-Beckham🙃
- Auden Tate

Ummm...........

⬇️⬇️⬇️

Full video: youtu.be/tV0LMB0ji10
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JohnnyU said:
one-trick-pony (jump ball).
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No shade thrown here I'm 100% interested in peoples comments and thoughts on this guy. I've seen a lot of people tossing this narrative out there but others who I trust in their scouting have said he's more than a 1 trick jump ball guy. I pick at 1.12 and it seems more and more likely this guy is slipping in early mock fantasy drafts. Could be a steal but I need to do more digging.
 
Watching closely here 'cuz I grabbed this guy with my last rookie/devy draft pick last summer and watched him zip up the boards all season. Now it seems he's being suppressed for one reason or another.
 
Big big FSU fan. Saw every game this year, sometimes multiple times. This guy is an absolute jump ball freak but he cannot separate at all. I don’t know if it’s a route running thing or he lacks top end speed but he just doesn’t do it. He runs stiff too, nothing he does looks flexible. I think he’s going to be a huge bust, unfortunately.

I don’t think I would take him before round 3.
 
Capella said:
Big big FSU fan. Saw every game this year, sometimes multiple times. This guy is an absolute jump ball freak but he cannot separate at all. I don’t know if it’s a route running thing or he lacks top end speed but he just doesn’t do it. He runs stiff too, nothing he does looks flexible. I think he’s going to be a huge bust, unfortunately.

I don’t think I would take him before round 3.
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He may be in the range where I could get him in dynasty but I think I’m going to avoid. I don’t like receivers who don’t get separation and rely on winning 50/50 balls. Much harder to do at the NFL level than college. Getting N’Keal Harry flashbacks.
 
he's basically off my list, unless he falls to me with my 2.08 pick. Even then I may go for someone who is more of a dart throw than the "bust" I predict.
at best, i see him as a 6-7TD player, with minimal yardage.
 
I think Gabe Davis with better hops is my comp. Could produce in a sweet spot as a 2 in a vertical offense across from a good wr1 like Davis, but is probably going to struggle if he's the focus of the defense.

I watch a lot of Michigan State and his sophomore breakout you could definitely see the upside and rawness. He was more of a basketball recruit until very late in his recruitment, and also played BBall at MSU for a year. That sort of stuff highlights the athleticism, but I think it really delays WR development when guys do that.
I didn't watch him much at FSU besides the highlights, but it sounds like it was still athletic but raw there.
 
I was excited about him early in the season but I think I've come around to where most here are: N'Keal Harry and lack of separation are probably deal breakers here. Though his size and athleticism is special so if he does hit, it could be in a big way. I doubt it though.
 
Capella said:
Big big FSU fan. Saw every game this year, sometimes multiple times. This guy is an absolute jump ball freak but he cannot separate at all. I don’t know if it’s a route running thing or he lacks top end speed but he just doesn’t do it. He runs stiff too, nothing he does looks flexible. I think he’s going to be a huge bust, unfortunately.

I don’t think I would take him before round 3.
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If I could write up the exact description of a WR I expect to bust, this would be it.

I used to be guilty of falling in love with the size and ignoring the separation issues. But, guys don't win that way consistently in the NFL. You're not going to have 1200 yards by running past or outjumping NFL defenders. You have to have more to your game than that.
 
Am I missing the boat on Coleman? A lot of bad things being said, including me that he is a high bust risk. I don’t want to be that guy because I closed my mind on him.
 
JohnnyU said:
Am I missing the boat on Coleman? A lot of bad things being said, including me that he is a high bust risk. I don’t want to be that guy because I closed my mind on him.
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I want to like him. He looked impressive when I saw him play this year. He no doubt has size and athleticism- plays like a basketball player. I am just feel snakebit after guys like N'Keal.
 
Ilov80s said:
JohnnyU said:
Am I missing the boat on Coleman? A lot of bad things being said, including me that he is a high bust risk. I don’t want to be that guy because I closed my mind on him.
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I want to like him. He looked impressive when I saw him play this year. He no doubt has size and athleticism- plays like a basketball player. I am just feel snakebit after guys like N'Keal.
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Yeah, the fantasy community is spooked by WRs like Coleman. Watch him turn out to be a league winner, LOL
 
JohnnyU said:
Am I missing the boat on Coleman? A lot of bad things being said, including me that he is a high bust risk. I don’t want to be that guy because I closed my mind on him.
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The last sentence is key for me. At some point, as he keeps dropping in ADP, he will be worth the risk. There are always big names that don't work out and there are guys people didn't like that do work out. The value might end up being there, especially if he keeps moving down in the 2nd round.
 
Hayden Winks
I get the Keon Coleman advanced stats look wonky, but damnit if the traits aren't just right there. Look at this burst & stop/start for a big WR.
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you miss 100% of the shots you don't take
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Only 37% of Keon's go, post, and corner targets were catchable if we're looking for reasons why his stats don't match the traits.

When he's got a chance, he can do things like this. Watch at 0.5x speed.
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Max Power said:
Faust said:
Sam Monson
Keon Coleman propaganda:

Play speed vs timed speed:

Coleman ran 4.6, Franklin 4.4, but Coleman was averaging like 5mph more on the gauntlet run.
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Anyone watching Coleman's 40s could see the guy has no idea how to come out of the block. Its not a football move, but can alter a 40 by .2 if you work at it.
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This is so true for players that aren't sprinters or have never practiced starts. I'm just talking about the 40 in general - it's such a short "race" that people who are slow to start really get punished.
 
massraider said:
Soulfly3 said:
A huge, huge part of football is winning off the line, isn't it?
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He was the fastest guy in the gauntlet, but only ran 4.6 when he was in a 3 point stance.

I'm wicked smart, so I won't split him out wide in a 3 point sprinter stance.

He still might not be able to separate, but the 40 time isn't the final word on his speed.
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No, I agree. But is he slow off the line because of the stance or because he's just generally slow off the line?
 
Soulfly3 said:
No, I agree. But is he slow off the line because of the stance or because he's just generally slow off the line?
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I never liked the way they have them line up, clearly form has a lot to do with it. Some guys are better than others.

Just an antiquated thing they have not changed because tradition.

I think the issues still remain as to whether he can get open in the NFL, which would still be true if he ran a 4.4.

It actually meant a little bit more to me how good he was in the guantlet, meantime Troy Franklin looked like a drunk teenage deer wearing high heels.
 
Is he actually slow off the line? His 10 yard split was pretty good, middle of the pack. Better than Franklin, Pearsall. Same as Cowing, D Walker, Legette.
 
massraider said:
Soulfly3 said:
No, I agree. But is he slow off the line because of the stance or because he's just generally slow off the line?
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I never liked the way they have them line up, clearly form has a lot to do with it. Some guys are better than others.

Just an antiquated thing they have not changed because tradition.

I think the issues still remain as to whether he can get open in the NFL, which would still be true if he ran a 4.4.

It actually meant a little bit more to me how good he was in the guantlet, meantime Troy Franklin looked like a drunk teenage deer wearing high heels.
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In general the combine sucks. Anyone can have an off day and it's wild that it can affect their stock so much.

Franklin has great tape. You watch the combine, he's a bum.
 
JohnnyU said:
For me personally Coleman is one of those guys you hope someone drafts in the 1st round of rookie drafts.
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Agreed. Or if he falls to, say, my 2.12 pick, I'd be somewhat happy to take him there (depending on who else has slipped through the cracks).
 
Doing my dive on him today. Man, this class is loaded. This dude has potential. I think every time I do deep dive the receiver moves up my rankings until the next one moves him down. I like him.
 
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