Who are your top 5 rookie busts for 2024? (1 Viewer)

[renesauz]

I little confused by all the Brooks picks. Is anybody expecting more then mid to low end RB2 production this year? And even then moreso in the second half of the season?

He'd probably need a new injury not to make the top 30. If I'm expecting RB22 or so and he is RB 28 or 30, is he really worthy of "top five bust"? Even if he's RB 40 he won't make the top five busts because expectations for 2024 weren't really anything special to begin with.

Caleb Williams worries me long term, and I even took him first in a superflex (after trying unsuccessfully to move back a little bit), but for 2024? I mean, he's gonna start the whole year and there's weapons there. It's hard to imagine a bottom five result.....but at the same time does anyone expect a top 10 result? For me THIS YEAR I see somewhere around QB 16-18. If he's QB26 is that a top 5 bust? Probably not. Not even sure it would be either surprising nor problematic.

How did anyone pick Penix? Is anyone expecting Penix to even see the field this year barring an injury?

I like some of the thinking here, but bust for 2024 was the criteria, and neither of these two seem to fit that.

 

[barackdhouse]

I appreciate folks opinion on who they think will bust because it challenges my own possible hidden biases. I'm a little surprised to see Brian Thomas Jr on people list as right now he is probably number one by a lot on my list of holy crap this dude is priced too low and can be a league winner. No rookie has a better chance to dominate target share than him and Nabers. One is going in the 3rd/4th round and the other is 8th/9th. But it gets my attention that people him. I just Kirk and Gabe as solid complimentary WRs to his alpha. With Engram also being underpriced.

 

[barackdhouse]

That said my rookie bust for 2024 is Odunze. He is going 4th to 6th round and I think he'll have a very efficient and productive rookie season and make plays but just won't get target share to justify that cost.

 

[Ilov80s]

I little confused by all the Brooks picks. Is anybody expecting more then mid to low end RB2 production this year? And even then moreso in the second half of the season?

He'd probably need a new injury not to make the top 30. If I'm expecting RB22 or so and he is RB 28 or 30, is he really worthy of "top five bust"? Even if he's RB 40 he won't make the top five busts because expectations for 2024 weren't really anything special to begin with.

Yeah I do get that. Ultimately for redraft, there just aren’t that many rookies going that early so we have to get into the mid rounds for this exercise.

Brooks looks like he’s in the round 7-8 window right now. He’s got room to move up a lot though just by participating in practice/preseason. Right now he’s being suppressed because of the injury. If people see he’s in preseason, not on PUP they will warm to him more. I think the recovery combined with Chuba and the rookie learning curve will make him a disappointment the first half of the year. Is the fantasy player who takes him willing to just sit on their 6th round pick for half a year or will they get frustrated with his lack of production? Players taken in round 6-8 range are often expected to be in the fantasy starting lineup right away. He might finish the year as RB22 overall but if that’s really tilted towards the 2nd half of the year, he could hurt the person who drafts him and then help the person who picks him off waivers or gets him cheap in a mid year trade from a frustrated team manager.

 

[BradtheAg]

I'm going to do something a little different and list a bunch of rookies and the things I'm most worried about them for 2024. These aren't predictions so much as they're hypotheticals that concern me. I still like them more for dynasty for the most part. This is more of a redraft thing.

Marvin Harrison Jr. - He's one Kyler Murray injury away from having to catch passes from Desmond Ridder. Good luck if it ever comes to that.
Malik Nabers - The most yards ever by a receiver on a Daniel Jones-led team is 811, and that was at Duke.
Rome Odunze - DJ Moore and Keenan Allen will command a large target share, might be a JSN-type season for Rome.
Caleb Williams - Still got questions about the offensive line, potential for a lot of turnovers his rookie season.
Xavier Worthy - Gets compared to Tyreek Hill but is 22 lbs. lighter than Hill, target volume in question with Kelce, Brown, Rice around, could be another Jamo situation.
Brock Bowers - Questionable QB situation, target competition from Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, rookie TE's often take longer to adapt than other skill positions.
Brian Thomas Jr. - Offense still centered around ETN, plus will need to compete for targets with Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram.
Ladd McConkey - I have PTSD of Greg Roman after being burnt by Rashod Bateman, who I thought was a can't-miss prospect.
Jayden Daniels - Style of play lends itself to injury, worrisome especially given his slender frame for a QB.
Jonathon Brooks - Coming off an ACL injury and on an underwhelming offense on paper.
Keon Coleman - Lots of target competion for someone who profiles as a lower volume receiver, might be another high variance guy like Gabe Davis was for them.
Trey Benson - May be no more than a handcuff for 2024 with Conner in the last year of his contract and still playing at a high level.
Ricky Pearsall - Low volume passing attack and that's factoring in he's probably 5th in the order, at best, for 2024.
Adonai Mitchell - Getting Donte Moncrief vibes, also will be surprised if he beats out either of Pittman and Downs for targets.
Drake Maye - Lots of growing pains to be expected assuming he even starts a game this season.
Blake Corum - Similar to Trey Benson situation except with an elite fantasy RB and one who is signed through 2025.
J.J. McCarthy - I'd expect less fantasy points than what Kirk Cousins gave as starter, and it'll probably be Sam Darnold running it for most of 2024.
Xavier Legette - Raw prospect at age 23, expected to be brought along slowly, wouldn't expect much for this season.

BRB, going to trade my rookie picks away...

 

[Cjw_55106]

Not sure it will be fair to label him as a bust, but just for 2024, I dont expect a lot from McCarthy. I don't think MN plans to start him right out of the gate. Hopefully as a fan, Darnold finally realizes his top 3 pick selection potential and has success. For JJ, that would mean little playing time in year one.

 

[Bri]

I keep reading here. I need this topic. People love this rookie class in a way I've never seen before. I know, we know, rookies don't usually have great success so I'm here to try n make sense of the noise. Thanks for this thread

 

[menobrown]

That said my rookie bust for 2024 is Odunze. He is going 4th to 6th round and I think he'll have a very efficient and productive rookie season and make plays but just won't get target share to justify that cost.

In the FFPC $350's and BB he's going in that late 8th into 9th round area. Thinking you must be looking at stuff like Underdog where they eat up WR's? I'd agree that range is high and I'd be ranking him as a bust relative to cost as well at that price, especially a 4th, wow. I was taking him a lot pre-NFL draft, was one of my most drafted players I hate to say, usually in the 6-7th round area of FFPC drafts and right now looks like I lost on that bet and seems most likely I'll need an injury to Moore or Allen to justify that cost. But as late 8th-9th round FFPC price, that I'm ok paying even though I'll still say it might take an injury for him to hit that value but it's an upside play.

I'm a little surprised to see Brian Thomas Jr on people list as right now he is probably number one by a lot on my list of holy crap this dude is priced too low and can be a league winner. No rookie has a better chance to dominate target share than him and Nabers.

I love BTR's potential, believe he has the best natural tools of any WR in this draft and the potential that goes along with it and of course drafted him in our dynasty league but I had a hard time agreeing with the bolded. I know you mentioned Engram as a good buy low, maybe so, but reason he's any good is because he's a target monster. Kirk is someone neither me or you are probably overly fond of but he's been a 7.5 a target guy the last few years, he's got a cap charge of $24m this year and I I don't see that changing.. The design of the offense, the first reads, are likely going to continue to be to these two and Trevor was at the top of the league last year in first read throws(another site puts out this data who I won't mention and not sure how they know, but sure seemed like it watching the games last year, signed frustrated Ridley guy). I see Brian Thomas used to be a more effective version of what they tried to make Ridley last year, a clear out guy. In time I see BTR's role growing but seems like several other rookie WR's have clearer paths to being the target leader on their team, I got him coming in more in the 100'ish target range.

Saying all that I'm only disagreeing on the bolded line. I'm still surprised at people being down on him, I do like him better in best ball but he's been a target of mine and I've been drafting lately. I think, like Odunze as well, he can be a league winner but both will need an injury to one of the other top pass catchers.

 

[barackdhouse]

That said my rookie bust for 2024 is Odunze. He is going 4th to 6th round and I think he'll have a very efficient and productive rookie season and make plays but just won't get target share to justify that cost.

In the FFPC $350's and BB he's going in that late 8th into 9th round area. Thinking you must be looking at stuff like Underdog where they eat up WR's? I'd agree that range is high and I'd be ranking him as a bust relative to cost as well at that price, especially a 4th, wow. I was taking him a lot pre-NFL draft, was one of my most drafted players I hate to say, usually in the 6-7th round area of FFPC drafts and right now looks like I lost on that bet and seems most likely I'll need an injury to Moore or Allen to justify that cost. But as late 8th-9th round FFPC price, that I'm ok paying even though I'll still say it might take an injury for him to hit that value but it's an upside play.

I'm a little surprised to see Brian Thomas Jr on people list as right now he is probably number one by a lot on my list of holy crap this dude is priced too low and can be a league winner. No rookie has a better chance to dominate target share than him and Nabers.

I love BTR's potential, believe he has the best natural tools of any WR in this draft and the potential that goes along with it and of course drafted him in our dynasyt league but I had a hard time agreeing with the bolded. I know you mentioned Engram as a good buy low, maybe so, but reason he's any good is because he's a target monster. Kirk is someone neither me or you are probably overluy fond of but he's been a 7.5 a target guy the last few years, he's got a cap charge of $24m this year and I I don't see that changing.. The design of the offense, the first reads, are likely going to continue to be to these two and Trevor was at the top of the league last year in first read throws(another site puts out this data who I won't mention and not sure how they know, but sure seemed like it watching the games last year, signed frustrated Ridley guy). I see Brian Thomas used to be a more effective version of what they tried to make Ridley last year, a clear out guy. In time I see BTR's role growing but seems like several other rookie WR's have clearer paths to being the target leader on their team, I got him coming in more in the 100'ish target range.

Saying all that I'm only not disagreeing on the bolded line. I'm still surprised at people being down on him, I do like him better in best ball but he's been a target of mine and I've been drafting lately. I think, like Odunze as well, he can be a league winner but both will need an injury to one of the other top pass catchers.

Yea you're right Odunze and Thomas aren't that far apart in ADP. Yeah in Underdog they gobble WRs for sure.

 

[TripItUp]

I little confused by all the Brooks picks. Is anybody expecting more then mid to low end RB2 production this year? And even then moreso in the second half of the season?

1. ADP will climb
2. Panthers suck
3. Coming off major injury/surgery

I'm not saying he'll bust, but I'm also saying he has bust potential...both can be true.

 

[renesauz]

I keep reading here. I need this topic. People love this rookie class in a way I've never seen before. I know, we know, rookies don't usually have great success so I'm here to try n make sense of the noise. Thanks for this thread

This class was fantastic for QBs and WRs, poor for Rb and TE.

IN any year it seems there are only 3-4 rookies who make significant impacts. This year it might be only 1 or 2 (unless you're talking superflex), but there are a TON of guys who could contribute something, and for dynasty it's a terrific class