Colston's Knee Injury Killing his Fantasy Value? (1 Viewer)

[Patoons]

Post from my blog. Thought I'd share.

http://retiredrookie.blogspot.com/2009/07/colston.html

All Colston owners (including myself in two of seven leagues) gasped on May 26, 2009 when hearing that Marques Colston underwent microfracture surgery on his left knee in January 2009. It was a far cry from the "routine surgery" originally reported. I was particularly pissed after dealing Eddie Royal and the equivalent of an early 2nd round rookie pick for Colston a week prior in one of my main dynasty leagues. Being a vested owner and reading some speculation from other fans that Colston may be done for the year or not play a full season, I decided that I'd research and see how successful NFL players have been in recovering from this surgery. My hope: analyze the impact on a young Colston (26 years old) for 2009 and how it will effect his dynasty value.

An important point to note is that Colston also had arthroscopic knee surgery (also his left knee) back in the 2008 offseason. Typically, microfracture surgery is also needed as follow up to a knee scope since the scope removes torn cartilage and the microfracture surgery replaces the cartilage.

Surgery Background

According to MedlinePlus, which is a service of the US National Library of Medicine the procedure consists of the following:"The surgeon uses a small pointed tool called an awl to make very small holes called microfractures (tiny breaks) in the bone near the damaged cartilage. The holes the surgeon makes in your bone release the cells in your bones that build new cartilage."

Through my research, I learned that microfracture surgery is often successful in all patients (not solely atheletes). Here is a nice link with more information on the procedure and success rates. The most intriguing information from this link is that "current studies have shown a success rate of 75 to 80 percent among patients 45 years of age or younger, even among professional athletes. With the help of physical therapy, patients can often return to sports (or other intense activities) in about 4 months. " One concern, however, is that the new cartilage often is not as strong as healthy knee cartilage since it's more brittle and susceptible to breaking down in the long-term.

Recovery typically ranges from 3 months to 1 year and is contingent upon the severity of the surgery, size of the incision in the cartilage and the location of the incision. Unfortunately, this information isn't available to the casual fan for analysis, but it is relevant information.

Microfracture Surgery & NFL Players (Active & Retired)

Given that the information above focuses on all patients including your "Average Joe", I thought it pertinent to take a look at the success rate in NFL players. Interestingly enough, a majority of the population consisted of non-skill position players or aging veterans. I'll walk through the players that I found and note the relevance of each.

Kellen Winslow

In January 2007, Kellen Winslow had microfracture surgery on his knee at the age of 23. Winslow recovered quickly and had his best season as a pro in 2007 with 82 rec., 1160 yds, 5 TDs. Very similar position to Colston and roughly the same age, which could be indicative of Colston's recovery. Two potentially indicative points to consider: 1) Winslow successfully returned to All-Pro form, and 2) Winslow recovered quickly after having surgery in January 2007.

Stephen Davis

Davis had surgery in November 2004 at the age of 30. He played the following season in 13 games with 180 car., 550 yds, 12 TDs. He soon fizzled and retired, but that doesn't appear to be solely a result of his surgery after performing adequately in 2005. The contributing factor was more likely his career carries and the related wear and tear on his body. I can't say the surgery didn't impact his longevity (because I am sure it did), but the fact that he was 30 when the surgery was performed and had roughly 1800 career carries, it carries less weight when comparing to Colston since Colston is still a very young NFL player/athlete. However, I will consider two items: 1) he successfully returned the season following surgery, and 2) His career was shortened.

DeShaun Foster

Is there something in the Carolina water? In November 2002, Foster had microfracture surgery prior to having an NFL carry. Foster had the surgery at the age of 22, recovered and played in the 2003 season. Foster was never a phenomenal pro; he annually fell short of 1,000 yards rushing. This may be a result his lack of talent and not limitations as a result of the surgery, but we'll never know since the surgery was his rookie year. Two important points here: 1) He successfully returned from surgery (positive for Colston) at the age of 22, and 2) He recovered in approximately 1 year (rather long time for recovery).

Courtney Brown

Brown had two microfracture surgeries and three knee surgeries on his left knee (2002 and 2006 microfracture surgery). He successfully returned from his first surgery in 2003, however, he was never able to successfully return to the field after his 2nd surgery in 2006. The second surgery was likely needed because the cartilage in the initial surgery wasn't as strong as true knee cartilage. This, as discussed above, is a long-term problem with the surgery. This comparison in particular is striking to me and I'll carry weight on two points: 1) He returned triumphantly after one surgery (2003 was a decent year for Brown), and 2) his second surgery ended his career after apparent deterioration in his knee.

Fred Robbins

Another big man with microfracture surgery this offseason. He's still rehabbing and there's limited information available currently, except that he's no guarantee to be ready for training camp. Robbins is 32.

Jeremy Newberry

Newberry had multiple microfracture surgeries. He had his first following the 2005 season on his right knee at the age of 29, missed the 2006 season and had another surgery on his left knee after the 2006 season. In 2007, he started and played in 14 games for the Raiders, more recently was a backup for the Chargers in 2008 starting 3 games (age 32) and signed with the Falcons this past offseason. Two important points again: 1) he was able to successfully return from his first surgery, and 2) these surgeries appear to have slowed his career down limiting him to a backup role at the age of 32.

Patrick Jeffers

Jeffers had microfracture surgery in 2000 (he also tore his ACL at the same time) and his career was finished. He continued to have swelling/pain in his knee after playing his final game in 2000 at the age of 27. This is a tough one to consider since he also tore his ACL at the same time, but it's definitely troublesome that he never returned to play the WR position.

Other Professional Athletes

What's so interesting is that there are a very limited number of NFL players who have undergone microfracture surgery. Amar'e Stoudamire, Jason Kidd, Kenyon Martin, Antonio McDyess and John Stockton all had microfracture surgery and successfully returned. Several other players, such as Chris Webber and Afernee Hardaway returned, but were clearly limited by the surgery.

Analysis

Unfortunately, there's no definitive conclusion from the above (and my other research) that will help in pinpointing Colston's future success. It appears that each individual will respond differently depending on the degree of the surgery and his/her body's condition. I'm no medical professional and don't have access Colston's health records to determine the severity of his surgery. However, Colston has been back at practice, and there are some clear patterns and information that we can apply in order to make informed decisions for our fantasy teams. I see the following:

1) The knee scope from last year and the microfracture are related and a typical sequence of events. Removal and replacement of cartilage. This really isn't two separate knee issues.

2) Winslow may be the most relevant comparison given the age and the proximity of the surgery year. He successfully returned after a short rehabilitation period and performed at a pro bowl level. Colston's surgery was in Janaury much like Winslow's. With Colston already back in camp, he should be ready for the start of the 2009 NFL season.

3) From the background info and C.Brown, the replacement cartilage clearly breaks down and stunts an athlete's career as a result. In my book, this is a decent hit to Colston's long-term value or dynasty value.

4) Jeffers is one of the few younger players that was not able to return to play. However, he also tore his ACL in 2000. There's also a number of legal proceedings currently in progress regarding this surgery and potential malpractice by the Panther's team physician. With Colston at 26, the odds of his recovery are in his favor.

5) If Colston's new cartilage wears away and he has another microfracture surgery, I'm selling ASAP and steering clear. It may be the end of his career if it hits this point.

Final Conclusion

The younger a player is from the examples above and the background info, the more likely he is to return to form (which makes sense). At the age of 26, Colston should be able to continue to perform at a high level beginning in 2009.

This clearly makes Colston a target for me this season and the apparently already successful return from his offseason surgery. He has the potential to have a top 5 season. Redraft... buy/draft. Let the others worry and he'll fall right into your lap.

However, regardless of him returning to form this year, from a longevity standpoint, I see a stunted career. He's highly unlikely to have a TO, Jimmy Smith or Derrick Mason 10+ season career. I have not yet found an NFL player who continued to perform at a high level for a significant period of time following the surgery (though, again, it is a small sample size). From a dynasty perspective, he's dropping in my rankings purely due to the uncertainty of the long-term impacts and the unclear long-term effects.

Buy now, sell in the short term after a huge 2009! He sure as hell has the talent. That knee better just hold together for another year or so.... it should.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

love the post. Thank you for doing the research. This just sounds painful:

According to MedlinePlus, which is a service of the US National Library of Medicine the procedure consists of the following:"The surgeon uses a small pointed tool called an awl to make very small holes called microfractures (tiny breaks) in the bone near the damaged cartilage. The holes the surgeon makes in your bone release the cells in your bones that build new cartilage."

 

[fruity pebbles]

another aspect that was left out is where the cartilage loss is. Colston had his microfracture surgery on his knee cap. Others were on the knee surface.

 

[two_dollars]

another aspect that was left out is where the cartilage loss is. Colston had his microfracture surgery on his knee cap. Others were on the knee surface.

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

 

[massraider]

Great post, really great work.

The fact that Colston is practicing in June is telling to me. A situation to keep an eye one but minicamp involvement is big to me.

 

[RavensUNFL]

Great post, however, as a fellow Colston owner I am still not sure on what to do with him. I guess hold on and hope for a monster year to trade him late or after the season.

 

[JaxBill]

Jags LB Tony Brackens was never the same after his microfracture surgery and it basically signalled the end of his career.

Like somebody else has already pointed out, though, it's hard to know if the cases are similar.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

I wish I were your English teacher, Patoons, so I could give you an A+++.

I'm in a redraft auction league and Colston was off my list. Now he's back on, provided the price isn't too high.

Thank you and well done!

 

[Ray_T]

Great post, however, as a fellow Colston owner I am still not sure on what to do with him. I guess hold on and hope for a monster year to trade him late or after the season.

You hope someone is high on him and makes you a good offer for him.

 

[Ray_T]

I will point out one other thing about this type of surgery.

The surgery tends to be more successful if there have been no previous knee issues or knee surgeries. This is not Colstons first problem with his knee, so I am somewhat skeptical about the potential end result.

In my Auction league I may buy him as a WR3 on the cheap, but if anyone wants to spend big money on him, they can have him.

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

Maybe I'm just paranoid, but it seems like Colston is starting to have chronic knee problems. My big concern with him for the coming season is him playing a couple of weeks, then missing extended time with more injuries/knee issues.

 

[ATC1]

Marques ColstonTo say Marques Colston is recovering from the dreaded Microfracture surgery is a little misleading. Microfracture surgery has different categories. Colston’s surgery was not the most widely known microfracture procedure that ended the careers of Marshall Faulk and Terrell Davis where the articular surface is so worn down that the two main bones of the knee are basically rubbing together without much cushion causing pain. Colston underwent a microfracture surgical procedure on his left knee in January to repair a small hole he had worn behind his kneecap. The knee cap does not take the pounding that the joint itself takes. Thus, this type of microfracture is easier to recover from. Although he has had arthroscopic procedures done to clean out the knee, he has not missed any significant time because of his knee. Last year Colston was out for a majority of the season with a torn a ligament in his thumb during Week 1 last year. He was not held out because of his knee. Latest was Colston has been running routes and he says it’s the best he has felt heading into training camp. The cat may already be out of the bag that he will be ready to go for training camp, but if you find your league mates willing to let him slide for another wide receiver he represents good value. In the Saints high powered offense, Colston should put up top 5 numbers if healthy. The news of his injury may allow you to take two running backs in the first two rounds and then rely on Colston as your 1st wide receiver in the early 3rd round.

See Sig

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Back 5-8 years ago, I think microfracture surgery was primarily being used as a last ditch option procedure for people (atheletes) with severe degenerative knee issues that where hoping for a way to prolong the life of the joint and avoid future knee replacement surgery.

However, in the last few years, the procedure seems to be increasing in frequency and I've read that athletes with even lingering minor knee cartilage issues are having scaled back versions of the procedure to promote cartilage regeneration and avoid further injury.

Obviously there's no way for us to know how bad Colston's knee cartilage problems are, but I wouldn't assume right away that this indicates a major degenerative problem today, as 5 years ago it probably would have.

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

Marques ColstonTo say Marques Colston is recovering from the dreaded Microfracture surgery is a little misleading. Microfracture surgery has different categories. Colston's surgery was not the most widely known microfracture procedure that ended the careers of Marshall Faulk and Terrell Davis where the articular surface is so worn down that the two main bones of the knee are basically rubbing together without much cushion causing pain. Colston underwent a microfracture surgical procedure on his left knee in January to repair a small hole he had worn behind his kneecap. The knee cap does not take the pounding that the joint itself takes. Thus, this type of microfracture is easier to recover from. Although he has had arthroscopic procedures done to clean out the knee, he has not missed any significant time because of his knee. Last year Colston was out for a majority of the season with a torn a ligament in his thumb during Week 1 last year. He was not held out because of his knee. Latest was Colston has been running routes and he says it's the best he has felt heading into training camp. The cat may already be out of the bag that he will be ready to go for training camp, but if you find your league mates willing to let him slide for another wide receiver he represents good value. In the Saints high powered offense, Colston should put up top 5 numbers if healthy. The news of his injury may allow you to take two running backs in the first two rounds and then rely on Colston as your 1st wide receiver in the early 3rd round.

See Sig

Some good info there.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I find it interesting that Winslow is the ready comparison when so few of the others returned to pro-bowl form the following season. So why is it that we think Colston is going to be more like Colston and less like the others? The sample size is so small, and the specifics of an individual's biology, not to mention the myriad of injury and surgical variables that are in play, make A vs. B vs. C comparisons pretty useless IMHO.

Does Colston have quickness and speed to burn? I don't think he does. I'm not saying that's his game - but it means he can't afford to lose what he has. If the knee hampers him and he loses any of what he does have, I think he becomes a very average receiver. And if he isn't earning those targets, I think Brees is too smart to force feed the ball to him. There are just too many other options on the field.

I don't have any idea whether he will return to form in 2009, need another year to return to form, or never be the same again. And because I don't, I have to take that uncertainty into account.

 

[Patoons]

I will point out one other thing about this type of surgery. The surgery tends to be more successful if there have been no previous knee issues or knee surgeries. This is not Colstons first problem with his knee, so I am somewhat skeptical about the potential end result.

IIRC, it was just his 2007 injury which ended up being a scope and this surgery.As I noted above, this is a typical to have a scope then a microfracture since the scope removes and microfracture replaces cartilage.

 

[Patoons]

Marques ColstonTo say Marques Colston is recovering from the dreaded Microfracture surgery is a little misleading. Microfracture surgery has different categories. Colston’s surgery was not the most widely known microfracture procedure that ended the careers of Marshall Faulk and Terrell Davis where the articular surface is so worn down that the two main bones of the knee are basically rubbing together without much cushion causing pain. Colston underwent a microfracture surgical procedure on his left knee in January to repair a small hole he had worn behind his kneecap. The knee cap does not take the pounding that the joint itself takes. Thus, this type of microfracture is easier to recover from. Although he has had arthroscopic procedures done to clean out the knee, he has not missed any significant time because of his knee. Last year Colston was out for a majority of the season with a torn a ligament in his thumb during Week 1 last year. He was not held out because of his knee. Latest was Colston has been running routes and he says it’s the best he has felt heading into training camp. The cat may already be out of the bag that he will be ready to go for training camp, but if you find your league mates willing to let him slide for another wide receiver he represents good value. In the Saints high powered offense, Colston should put up top 5 numbers if healthy. The news of his injury may allow you to take two running backs in the first two rounds and then rely on Colston as your 1st wide receiver in the early 3rd round.

See Sig

TD didn't have the surgery and that's why he hung up the cleats. Faulk I thought was the same. That's why both were excluded from my population.I wasn't aware of the kneecap item - definitely interesting.

 

[Patoons]

I find it interesting that Winslow is the ready comparison when so few of the others returned to pro-bowl form the following season. So why is it that we think Colston is going to be more like Colston and less like the others? The sample size is so small, and the specifics of an individual's biology, not to mention the myriad of injury and surgical variables that are in play, make A vs. B vs. C comparisons pretty useless IMHO. Does Colston have quickness and speed to burn? I don't think he does. I'm not saying that's his game - but it means he can't afford to lose what he has. If the knee hampers him and he loses any of what he does have, I think he becomes a very average receiver. And if he isn't earning those targets, I think Brees is too smart to force feed the ball to him. There are just too many other options on the field.I don't have any idea whether he will return to form in 2009, need another year to return to form, or never be the same again. And because I don't, I have to take that uncertainty into account.

First, let me say that I started the post by saying that the research was not as conclusive as I would have liked. That being said, Winslow most closely resembled Colston's situation from what we currently know.Winslow's the comparison for a few reasons:1) Similar ages they had the procedure performed2) Both had early in the year (i.e. January) and were in camp and practicing that summer.3) Similar positions4) Many of the other players had the procedure closer to 30, except for Foster. Foster isn't as good a comparison because we don't know what Foster's NFL performance was like prior to the injury.Again, not as conclusive as I'd hope, but Winslow seems pretty comparable (granted not much of a representative sample). Personally, I'd prefer to go off this info than just stay away because of the uncertainty. However, I absolutely understand the fear of the uncertainty and that's exactly why I researched it. All I know is that the research showed that several are successful in returning from the surgery and with Colston already back at practice. That's a pretty good sign.ETA: The Courtney Brown path is not out of the question and is concerning, but I'm not there yet.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

love the post. Thank you for doing the research. This just sounds painful:

According to MedlinePlus, which is a service of the US National Library of Medicine the procedure consists of the following:"The surgeon uses a small pointed tool called an awl to make very small holes called microfractures (tiny breaks) in the bone near the damaged cartilage. The holes the surgeon makes in your bone release the cells in your bones that build new cartilage."

I never knew you could actually build new cartilage, even if it isn't as strong.Having jacked up knees (or back or whatever) in your 20s/30s must be horrible, esp. if you weren't one of the mega-millionaire players.

 

[ATC1]

Marques ColstonTo say Marques Colston is recovering from the dreaded Microfracture surgery is a little misleading. Microfracture surgery has different categories. Colston’s surgery was not the most widely known microfracture procedure that ended the careers of Marshall Faulk and Terrell Davis where the articular surface is so worn down that the two main bones of the knee are basically rubbing together without much cushion causing pain. Colston underwent a microfracture surgical procedure on his left knee in January to repair a small hole he had worn behind his kneecap. The knee cap does not take the pounding that the joint itself takes. Thus, this type of microfracture is easier to recover from. Although he has had arthroscopic procedures done to clean out the knee, he has not missed any significant time because of his knee. Last year Colston was out for a majority of the season with a torn a ligament in his thumb during Week 1 last year. He was not held out because of his knee. Latest was Colston has been running routes and he says it’s the best he has felt heading into training camp. The cat may already be out of the bag that he will be ready to go for training camp, but if you find your league mates willing to let him slide for another wide receiver he represents good value. In the Saints high powered offense, Colston should put up top 5 numbers if healthy. The news of his injury may allow you to take two running backs in the first two rounds and then rely on Colston as your 1st wide receiver in the early 3rd round.

See Sig

TD didn't have the surgery and that's why he hung up the cleats. Faulk I thought was the same. That's why both were excluded from my population.I wasn't aware of the kneecap item - definitely interesting.

I thought they did at the tail end of their career, but could not make a come back. Regaurdless. It seems like the players are getting the proceedure done earlier in their career while the damage is not as bad to recover from and whiel they are still young to make an easier recovery.

 

[jwb]

I will point out one other thing about this type of surgery.

The surgery tends to be more successful if there have been no previous knee issues or knee surgeries. This is not Colstons first problem with his knee, so I am somewhat skeptical about the potential end result.

In my Auction league I may buy him as a WR3 on the cheap, but if anyone wants to spend big money on him, they can have him.

This is why I traded him in the one league where I owned him (to the OP, who wanted him for a long time. We finally did the deal he mentioned in his post.)Have to admit, I'm a bit uncertain - when healthy, Colston is an absolute beast. But two years from now, we could all be saying "the writing was clearly on the wall w/ this guy from early on." It's a gamble either way, but I'll err on the side of caution (and I love Royal in PPR's, too.) Time will tell.

Nice post, Patoons.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

He's not reliant on his speed though, right? His strength and hands should still be there. I don't think Colston will suddenly be like twice-injured Javon Walker.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Back 5-8 years ago, I think microfracture surgery was primarily being used as a last ditch option procedure for people (atheletes) with severe degenerative knee issues that where hoping for a way to prolong the life of the joint and avoid future knee replacement surgery.However, in the last few years, the procedure seems to be increasing in frequency and I've read that athletes with even lingering minor knee cartilage issues are having scaled back versions of the procedure to promote cartilage regeneration and avoid further injury.Obviously there's no way for us to know how bad Colston's knee cartilage problems are, but I wouldn't assume right away that this indicates a major degenerative problem today, as 5 years ago it probably would have.

I haven't made my mind up on Colston, but he's on my "to be investigated" list of possibly underrated players that can be fantasy dominant.As far as the surgery goes, it wasn't that long ago that a blown ACL was career threatening/ending, not so much any more. Microfracture surgery seems to be more regular and less threatening than in years past as well.

 

[fruity pebbles]

i'm more worried about Reggie Bush's microfracture surgery.

 

[Patoons]

i'm more worried about Reggie Bush's microfracture surgery.

I was actually thinking the same thing after researching this. Seems like Reggie may have a lingering knee issue.

 

[bcr8f]

How can you compare Colston's minor microfracture(small hole in his kneecap) with full blown microfracture as Winslow got? It's like apple and oranges.

Bush's surgery would make a better comparison.

Then he underwent a microfracture surgical procedure on his left knee in January to repair a small hole he had worn in his kneecap.

 

[Patoons]

How can you compare Colston's minor microfracture(small hole in his kneecap) with full blown microfracture as Winslow got? It's like apple and oranges.

Bush's surgery would make a better comparison.

Then he underwent a microfracture surgical procedure on his left knee in January to repair a small hole he had worn in his kneecap.

So he had microfracture surgery (a surgery where lost cartilage is replaced with new, but it was only a small hole in the knee cap and no cartilage was replaced? That doesn't seem to make much sense to me. They must have replaced lost cartilage in the knee as a result of the scope. Is it possible that the lost cartilage from the scope caused a hole in his knee cap? Maybe... I haven't seen a full blown medical report.

If you're suggesting that Winslow's procedure was more severe, all the better. I'm not sure I agree with that though since (like you said) microfracture surgery will differ depending on the specific injury/player. However, I think others performance subsequent to the surgery is useful in evaluating Colston's value and/or future prospects.

I don't think Reggie is a better/worse comparison. We could do the same with him since we don't know the absolute details of each individual's procedure/injury.

ETA:

Colston reportedly developed a small hole in his kneecap, whereby the surgery should help in building up new cartilage to support the knee.

http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/2009/0...y-fantasy-spin/Replacing cartilage to support the knee according to this. In all cases of microfracture surgery, this appears to be the end goal. Support the knee with new, but more brittle, cartilage that had been lost previously (most likely during the knee scope). It's apparent that the hole in the kneecap was a result of missing cartilage that needed to be replaced.

 

[ATC1]

i'm more worried about Reggie Bush's microfracture surgery.

I was actually thinking the same thing after researching this. Seems like Reggie may have a lingering knee issue.

Agreed since he started with a PCL injury. Continued to play on it during the playoffs in 2006 and continues to give him problems. He also, requires more demand on the joint with his play.

 

[ATC1]

If you're suggesting that Winslow's procedure was more severe, all the better. I'm not sure I agree with that though since (like you said) microfracture surgery will differ depending on the specific injury/player. However, I think others performance subsequent to the surgery is useful in evaluating Colston's value and/or future prospects.I don't think Reggie is a better/worse comparison. We could do the same with him since we don't know the absolute details of each individual's procedure/injury.

Winslow's microfracture surgery was a result of the ACL reconstruction, then getting the staph infection, which did not allow the ACL rehab to progress like it needed too. multiple surgries to clean out scar tissue needed to be done causeing wear and tear to the joint. As stated above, Bush had the PCL injury he decided to not have surgery on when it happened.Colston had no such ligament damage.

 

[ATC1]

Let me first say that Colston WAS maybe the mvp of the playoffs for me the last 2 years in a contract keeper league and maybe the man that brought me a Championship apperance 2008 and a Championship in 2009. I know he scored the most points for me in the Championship game this past season.NOW, that being said I dealt him away this season straight up for Roy Williams and here's the reason why. Colston was killing me by missing those 5 games and I just squeaked into the playoffs by 1 point and the main reason it came down to the wire was Colston was out and Wayne and Bowe would trade good weeks back and forth and I was going back and forth to the WW to find another receiver for bye weeks and just flat struggling with out Colston being that solid # 3 who played like a # 1 in crunch time. I have had 2 seasons dealing with that and maybe Roy is not the picture of perfect health(but has knee cartlidge), however I did not want to deal with that again this season. Colston is to young to being having these knee issues and as pointed out this is not like his first surgery on his knees and any type of Microfracture surgery is not a good surgery no matter how you spin it.I also think Lance Moore's coming out party last year will continue and that offense has so many weapons and Pierre Thomas being the back and Bush being a "1b" wr with Moore...I don't know. I hated to do it.I would be worried about Colston's value going forward.

Colston missed games last year because of game keeper's thumb surgery. He came back and looked good in the last couple of games. Lance Moore is returning from shoulder surgery himself. I think Moore is a product of the system and not putting up numbers because of his great talent. I think Colston is a grat player, but I don't see him being the stud Wr if not in New Orleans. If D. Henderson did not have stone hands he would be a #1 Wr in this system. If Robert Meachum wasn't affraid to run routes across the mild of the field, he could be a #1 Wr in this system. A guy to keep your eyes on in deep dynasty play is Adrian Arrington to hand cuff Colston.

 

[az_prof]

The original OP is good even if some of the subsequent criticism are valid. What I take away from all of this is this:

1) In redraft, Colston may be a good value

2) In dynasty, he is a player to move and avoid

 

[Patoons]

The original OP is good even if some of the subsequent criticism are valid. What I take away from all of this is this:1) In redraft, Colston may be a good value2) In dynasty, he is a player to move and avoid

This is exactly what's in my conclusion above.

 

[-jb-]

So this is the part that I don't get about Colston being potentially undervalued - he's being drafted as WR10. Exactly how undervalued can you be when you are going 3.03 in a 12 team redraft? Could he be on the mend? Sure...but I don't see him being undervalued at all.

6 Larry Fitzgerald WR 1 6 5 6 7 810 Andre Johnson WR 2 14 8 9 14 1114 Randy Moss WR 3 10 14 12 16 1515 Calvin Johnson WR 4 15 10 14 20 1721 Reggie Wayne WR 5 22 17 19 22 2322 Greg Jennings WR 6 23 16 21 23 2423 Steve Smith WR 7 21 21 23 28 2025 Roddy White WR 8 26 20 24 26 2526 Anquan Boldin WR 9 25 24 26 27 2627 Marques Colston WR 10 29 26 25 31 31IF HE'S HEALTHY, I could see him outperforming 5 of those WRs, which is great...but outstanding value, notsomuch. To me, that 1/3 of a round drop-back does not make up for the inherent risk. If he slipped to the end of third, then definitely. This would also coincide with someone's earlier comment about giving you the ability to go RB/RB with no trepidation.Great info in this thread, and it definitely makes me more confident about the guy...just not sure this is such a sneaky play.

 

[Patoons]

So this is the part that I don't get about Colston being potentially undervalued - he's being drafted as WR10. Exactly how undervalued can you be when you are going 3.03 in a 12 team redraft? Could he be on the mend? Sure...but I don't see him being undervalued at all.

6	Larry Fitzgerald	WR 1	6	5	6	7	810	Andre Johnson	WR 2	14	8	9	14	1114	Randy Moss	WR 3	10	14	12	16	1515	Calvin Johnson	WR 4	15	10	14	20	1721	Reggie Wayne	WR 5	22	17	19	22	2322	Greg Jennings	WR 6	23	16	21	23	2423	Steve Smith	WR 7	21	21	23	28	2025	Roddy White	WR 8	26	20	24	26	2526	Anquan Boldin	WR 9	25	24	26	27	2627	Marques Colston	WR 10	29	26	25	31	31

IF HE'S HEALTHY, I could see him outperforming 5 of those WRs, which is great...but outstanding value, notsomuch. To me, that 1/3 of a round drop-back does not make up for the inherent risk. If he slipped to the end of third, then definitely. This would also coincide with someone's earlier comment about giving you the ability to go RB/RB with no trepidation.Great info in this thread, and it definitely makes me more confident about the guy...just not sure this is such a sneaky play.

I don't think he's a "sneaky play" this season or undervalued, but there's definitely the uncertainty out there so I thought it was important that I look at any correlation with past injuries. Clearly, from a dynasty standpoint he may not be good value.

 

[Team Legacy]

The original OP is good even if some of the subsequent criticism are valid. What I take away from all of this is this:1) In redraft, Colston may be a good value2) In dynasty, he is a player to move and avoid

This is exactly what's in my conclusion above.

Okay okay.. I'll take him off your hands in BB2.

 

[Manster]

How can you compare Colston's minor microfracture(small hole in his kneecap) with full blown microfracture as Winslow got? It's like apple and oranges.

Bush's surgery would make a better comparison.

Then he underwent a microfracture surgical procedure on his left knee in January to repair a small hole he had worn in his kneecap.

So he had microfracture surgery (a surgery where lost cartilage is replaced with new, but it was only a small hole in the knee cap and no cartilage was replaced? That doesn't seem to make much sense to me. They must have replaced lost cartilage in the knee as a result of the scope. Is it possible that the lost cartilage from the scope caused a hole in his knee cap? Maybe... I haven't seen a full blown medical report.

If you're suggesting that Winslow's procedure was more severe, all the better. I'm not sure I agree with that though since (like you said) microfracture surgery will differ depending on the specific injury/player. However, I think others performance subsequent to the surgery is useful in evaluating Colston's value and/or future prospects.

I don't think Reggie is a better/worse comparison. We could do the same with him since we don't know the absolute details of each individual's procedure/injury.

ETA:

Colston reportedly developed a small hole in his kneecap, whereby the surgery should help in building up new cartilage to support the knee.

http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/2009/0...y-fantasy-spin/Replacing cartilage to support the knee according to this. In all cases of microfracture surgery, this appears to be the end goal. Support the knee with new, but more brittle, cartilage that had been lost previously (most likely during the knee scope). It's apparent that the hole in the kneecap was a result of missing cartilage that needed to be replaced.

i may be wrong, but i think he the "cartilage" in question is from the patello-femoral joint. the main "weight-bearing" joint of the knee is the tibio-femoral joint."so i'm thinking the "hole" in his knee cap affected the cartilage involving the the patello-femoral joint. i'm thinking this is much easier to recover from and be in top shape athletically, than a microfracture surgery of the tibio-femoral joint.

again, i could be totally wrong here.

but i work with orhopedic surgeons. i'm going to pop this question to one of them. maybe i'll get an "expert" opinion.

 

[Biabreakable]

Thanks for the great info. It is nice to have all of his consolidated in one thread.

Colston is the target of choice for Drew Brees. Getting him in round 3 or later can win leagues for you. Or he could lose them for you.

Who has the guts?

Sometimes I have more balls than brains. Been burned taking guys like DD now Domanic Williams ect. knowing full well the risks.

But you only live once and I really like this guy. Hope he has a full recovery and a outstanding career ahead.

 

[baconisgood]

So this is the part that I don't get about Colston being potentially undervalued - he's being drafted as WR10. Exactly how undervalued can you be when you are going 3.03 in a 12 team redraft? Could he be on the mend? Sure...but I don't see him being undervalued at all.

6	Larry Fitzgerald	WR 1	6	5	6	7	810	Andre Johnson	WR 2	14	8	9	14	1114	Randy Moss	WR 3	10	14	12	16	1515	Calvin Johnson	WR 4	15	10	14	20	1721	Reggie Wayne	WR 5	22	17	19	22	2322	Greg Jennings	WR 6	23	16	21	23	2423	Steve Smith	WR 7	21	21	23	28	2025	Roddy White	WR 8	26	20	24	26	2526	Anquan Boldin	WR 9	25	24	26	27	2627	Marques Colston	WR 10	29	26	25	31	31

IF HE'S HEALTHY, I could see him outperforming 5 of those WRs, which is great...but outstanding value, notsomuch. To me, that 1/3 of a round drop-back does not make up for the inherent risk. If he slipped to the end of third, then definitely. This would also coincide with someone's earlier comment about giving you the ability to go RB/RB with no trepidation.Great info in this thread, and it definitely makes me more confident about the guy...just not sure this is such a sneaky play.

Colston put up 1200 yards and 11 TDs in his 2nd year- it took Wayne 4 years, Andre Johnson 6 years, Jennings 3 years, Steve Smith 5 years, and Roddy White is yet to score that many points in 4 seasons. Colston could easily outscore those 5 players and hes really just variance away from a 1500 yards and 16 TD #1 WR season.

 

[maxwelledison]

So this is the part that I don't get about Colston being potentially undervalued - he's being drafted as WR10. Exactly how undervalued can you be when you are going 3.03 in a 12 team redraft? Could he be on the mend? Sure...but I don't see him being undervalued at all.

6	Larry Fitzgerald	WR 1	6	5	6	7	810	Andre Johnson	WR 2	14	8	9	14	1114	Randy Moss	WR 3	10	14	12	16	1515	Calvin Johnson	WR 4	15	10	14	20	1721	Reggie Wayne	WR 5	22	17	19	22	2322	Greg Jennings	WR 6	23	16	21	23	2423	Steve Smith	WR 7	21	21	23	28	2025	Roddy White	WR 8	26	20	24	26	2526	Anquan Boldin	WR 9	25	24	26	27	2627	Marques Colston	WR 10	29	26	25	31	31

IF HE'S HEALTHY, I could see him outperforming 5 of those WRs, which is great...but outstanding value, notsomuch. To me, that 1/3 of a round drop-back does not make up for the inherent risk. If he slipped to the end of third, then definitely. This would also coincide with someone's earlier comment about giving you the ability to go RB/RB with no trepidation.Great info in this thread, and it definitely makes me more confident about the guy...just not sure this is such a sneaky play.

Colston put up 1200 yards and 11 TDs in his 2nd year- it took Wayne 4 years, Andre Johnson 6 years, Jennings 3 years, Steve Smith 5 years, and Roddy White is yet to score that many points in 4 seasons. Colston could easily outscore those 5 players and hes really just variance away from a 1500 yards and 16 TD #1 WR season.

True, but the perception (and probably reality) is that he is also much more likely than the players you named to miss 11 games. This makes a 3rd-4th round pick go by the board for nothing. Are we all going to blow picks this year? Of course, but the distance between his floor and ceiling is the concern for many. There is no question the guy is legitimate but to deny his propensity for injury is short-sighted, imo. If you are simply willing to accept that risk, I understand that too.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

The original OP is good even if some of the subsequent criticism are valid. What I take away from all of this is this:1) In redraft, Colston may be a good value2) In dynasty, he is a player to move and avoid

:( Nice work Patoons

 

[ATC1]

The original OP is good even if some of the subsequent criticism are valid. What I take away from all of this is this:1) In redraft, Colston may be a good value2) In dynasty, he is a player to move and avoid

Nice work Patoons

This makes no sense.If he was a player with good value in redraft, in dynasty, wouldn't the play be to buy him now and sell him after this year?

 

[Biabreakable]

The original OP is good even if some of the subsequent criticism are valid. What I take away from all of this is this:1) In redraft, Colston may be a good value2) In dynasty, he is a player to move and avoid

:( Nice work Patoons

This makes no sense.If he was a player with good value in redraft, in dynasty, wouldn't the play be to buy him now and sell him after this year?

Yes he is a buy now.

 

[Post Corner]

Let me just say on this thread:



VERY nicely done. Great work all. Lovin' it.

As for me, I'm not a big fan of someone having a surgery that has numerous examples of people not ever being the same. No thanks on the Russain Roulette. Particularly in my high stakes leagues. As a WR10, that is still a WR1 in a 10 team league. I don't want to take that gamble.

Other examples in other sports don't look any better. As with anything, the technology is getting better, but I agree with the points that Colsten is not a new corvette when it comes to his banged up knee. Plus, I don't like the part where microfracture surgery is likened to repaving a road. In a contact sport like football, doesn't sound good to me.

As a FYI, footballdocs have Colston as a bust:

http://www.footballdocs.com/fantasy_football_busts.html

I like the point about grabbing other Saints WRs later in your draft. I think I will pass on Colston in my draft because ADP says he won't be there when I am willing to take the risk relative to the reward.

 

[Sugar Huddle]

It seems Colston is somewhat snakebit. I had him on my roster since his first year -- got him as a waiver wire pick-up just prior to his first season of play (12-team dynasty league, non-PPR, standard scoring). He carried my team when he wasn't hurt but as several posters have already said he missed a lot of time as well. I was out of the playoff race last year and decided to get as much for him as I could and retool my team somewhat. So, I trade him for S.Holmes, 1.11, Kevin Walter which I traded for the 1.12, L.Washington and C.Pennington (I have Henne and needed a back-up QB). I turned the 1.11 into P.Harvin and the 1.12 into DHB.

 

[Patoons]

The original OP is good even if some of the subsequent criticism are valid. What I take away from all of this is this:1) In redraft, Colston may be a good value2) In dynasty, he is a player to move and avoid

Nice work Patoons

This makes no sense.If he was a player with good value in redraft, in dynasty, wouldn't the play be to buy him now and sell him after this year?

Yes... Sorry, I guess I wasn't clear in my recent post. My OP states that I would look for short term value and then sell after he explodes.By 1) I mean now and 2) is more in succession to 1 (if that makes sense). He isn't a guy I would recommend holding in a dynasty.ETA from OP:

Buy now, sell in the short term after a huge 2009! He sure as hell has the talent. That knee better just hold together for another year or so.... it should.

 

[Manster]

How can you compare Colston's minor microfracture(small hole in his kneecap) with full blown microfracture as Winslow got? It's like apple and oranges.

Bush's surgery would make a better comparison.

Then he underwent a microfracture surgical procedure on his left knee in January to repair a small hole he had worn in his kneecap.

So he had microfracture surgery (a surgery where lost cartilage is replaced with new, but it was only a small hole in the knee cap and no cartilage was replaced? That doesn't seem to make much sense to me. They must have replaced lost cartilage in the knee as a result of the scope. Is it possible that the lost cartilage from the scope caused a hole in his knee cap? Maybe... I haven't seen a full blown medical report.

If you're suggesting that Winslow's procedure was more severe, all the better. I'm not sure I agree with that though since (like you said) microfracture surgery will differ depending on the specific injury/player. However, I think others performance subsequent to the surgery is useful in evaluating Colston's value and/or future prospects.

I don't think Reggie is a better/worse comparison. We could do the same with him since we don't know the absolute details of each individual's procedure/injury.

ETA:

Colston reportedly developed a small hole in his kneecap, whereby the surgery should help in building up new cartilage to support the knee.

http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/2009/0...y-fantasy-spin/Replacing cartilage to support the knee according to this. In all cases of microfracture surgery, this appears to be the end goal. Support the knee with new, but more brittle, cartilage that had been lost previously (most likely during the knee scope). It's apparent that the hole in the kneecap was a result of missing cartilage that needed to be replaced.

i may be wrong, but i think he the "cartilage" in question is from the patello-femoral joint. the main "weight-bearing" joint of the knee is the tibio-femoral joint."so i'm thinking the "hole" in his knee cap affected the cartilage involving the the patello-femoral joint. i'm thinking this is much easier to recover from and be in top shape athletically, than a microfracture surgery of the tibio-femoral joint.

again, i could be totally wrong here.

but i work with orhopedic surgeons. i'm going to pop this question to one of them. maybe i'll get an "expert" opinion.

FWIW, i asked an "expert" about Colstons' injury/surgery/outlook. without reviewing the case, he told me that Colstons type of micro fracture surgery could actually be harder to recover from and have a less optimistic longterm outlook, vs. micro surgery in the actual knee joint. then of course all of this depends on the severity he tells me. but he seems to think that if it was severe enough for a micro fracture............................???????the thing is you're not gonna get a definitive answer unless the Doc reviews the case, cause there are a lot of variables. the take home is, this could potentially be an issue for Colston from here on out. and i thought it might LESS severe than other micro surgery. maybe not. i'm going to see how camp goes and watch his ADP.

 

[Grahamburn]

It seems Colston is somewhat snakebit. I had him on my roster since his first year -- got him as a waiver wire pick-up just prior to his first season of play (12-team dynasty league, non-PPR, standard scoring). He carried my team when he wasn't hurt but as several posters have already said he missed a lot of time as well. I was out of the playoff race last year and decided to get as much for him as I could and retool my team somewhat. So, I trade him for S.Holmes, 1.11, Kevin Walter which I traded for the 1.12, L.Washington and C.Pennington (I have Henne and needed a back-up QB). I turned the 1.11 into P.Harvin and the 1.12 into DHB.

Great info here. Thanks. It's pretty simple really. Watch a few Saints preseason games. If Colston is moving around and looks like he can get separation, draft him. If he isn't taking snaps in the games and you continue to hear talk about his knee swelling or something similar, avoid him. For those drafting right now, the information seems to be positive.I like his ADP at the top of the third if he's healthy, of course.

 

[-jb-]

I like his ADP at the top of the third if he's healthy, of course.

This is what I find interesting. His ADP last year was beginning of the third. Don't you feel like his ADP should be discounted just slightly? I know you've put the caveat of "if he's healthy, of course," but no one will know that until at least mid-season.

 

[Grahamburn]

I like his ADP at the top of the third if he's healthy, of course.

This is what I find interesting. His ADP last year was beginning of the third. Don't you feel like his ADP should be discounted just slightly? I know you've put the caveat of "if he's healthy, of course," but no one will know that until at least mid-season.

I see where you're going with this and I agree with you, kind of. The current news on Colston seems positive. If you're drafting now I'd be willing to rely on Colston as an early third round pick if you've landed a WR in one of the first two rounds. I don't know if I could take him that early right now if I started my draft RB/RB and need to rely on him as a WR1. Is he valuable at that ADP? Yeah, if he's healthy all season. He's a double digit TD, 1300+ yard guy, when he plays 16 games...

I'm not drafting until August 22nd though. By that time I'll have a pretty good idea if the knee is ok. If he's sitting out practice and missing preseason games because of swelling I'll avoid him at an early third round ADP.