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**Colts 8-5 at Seahawks 10-3**(-14, 42.5) 4:25 (5 Viewers)

Super bold call here...Philip Rivers greatly exceeds expectations and actually is about as good Jones was. Indy has maybe the NFL's best OL, great run game, and a multitude of weapons. Its probably a better supporting cast than Rivers had at any point in the 2010s. I think Alec Pierce can get open down the field, and I expect a lot of Jonathan Taylor (Seattle's run D is only average) and I think Rivers does enough to keep it close.

For the Seahawks, the Colts secondary (which looked awesome a few weeks ago) is falling apart. I think JSN does whatever he wants to, and I think Shaheed gets deep a couple times. Colts have a below average run defense, but Seattle splits their RBs too much to really take advantage of that for fantasy. I'll tentatively say Walker should have an effective game, though volume will determine how great it is for fantasy. I think he'll hit some big runs.

I expect both teams to be overly conservative to start, likely a low scoring 1st half, before kicking up in the 2nd.

Seahawks-24
Colts-17
 
I'm going to say Rivers plays better than we expect....but Mike McDonald will not allow Rivers to be a good feel foot note....maybe 1 TD, but under 200 yrds
 
efactor said:
Rivers was pretty bad last time he played. Has he gotten better with age? Could be ugly
Click to expand...
In what world was Rivers pretty bad last time he played? Rivers was in the top-10 in passing yards, completion %, YPA, and top-5 in sack percentage. He was still an above average starter in 2020. I'm not arguing he's still that guy, but calling that "pretty bad" basically means there are like 8 QBs in the NFL who aren't "pretty bad"
 
travdogg said:
(Seattle's run D is only average)
Click to expand...

Curious to know which metric you are using to make this statement. Or perhaps not a stat, but a general feeling?

I ask not to be contrarian, but due to a feeling. Stats would show us that Seattle has a much better than average run defense, but I teach advanced placement statistics for a living and I'm always on the lookout for dirty stats that absolutely wreck the notion of "independence". Not all rushing attempts are the same. Not all run stops are the same. Not all opportunities are the same. The stats are being complied behind different offense lines and against different defense schemes and personnel.

My gut tells me Seattle might struggle to stop the run today. We shall see.
 
Hooper31 said:
travdogg said:
(Seattle's run D is only average)
Click to expand...

Curious to know which metric you are using to make this statement. Or perhaps not a stat, but a general feeling?

I ask not to be contrarian, but due to a feeling. Stats would show us that Seattle has a much better than average run defense, but I teach advanced placement statistics for a living and I'm always on the lookout for dirty stats that absolutely wreck the notion of "independence". Not all rushing attempts are the same. Not all run stops are the same. Not all opportunities are the same. The stats are being complied behind different offense lines and against different defense schemes and personnel.

My gut tells me Seattle might struggle to stop the run today. We shall see.
Click to expand...
Seattle is technically 5th in run defense, but 25th in tackling %. To me that means the 5th in run defense, is more about who they faced than them doing a great job. They are 10th in pass rush win rate, and 4th in coverage rate, that all leads me to thinking the run D is the place to attack.
 
travdogg said:
Hooper31 said:
travdogg said:
(Seattle's run D is only average)
Click to expand...

Curious to know which metric you are using to make this statement. Or perhaps not a stat, but a general feeling?

I ask not to be contrarian, but due to a feeling. Stats would show us that Seattle has a much better than average run defense, but I teach advanced placement statistics for a living and I'm always on the lookout for dirty stats that absolutely wreck the notion of "independence". Not all rushing attempts are the same. Not all run stops are the same. Not all opportunities are the same. The stats are being complied behind different offense lines and against different defense schemes and personnel.

My gut tells me Seattle might struggle to stop the run today. We shall see.
Click to expand...
Seattle is technically 5th in run defense, but 25th in tackling %. To me that means the 5th in run defense, is more about who they faced than them doing a great job. They are 10th in pass rush win rate, and 4th in coverage rate, that all leads me to thinking the run D is the place to attack.
Click to expand...
Seattle has 5 wins by over 21 points and 8 by over 7. Teams usually give up on the run when they are that far behind.
 
travdogg said:
efactor said:
Rivers was pretty bad last time he played. Has he gotten better with age? Could be ugly
Click to expand...
In what world was Rivers pretty bad last time he played? Rivers was in the top-10 in passing yards, completion %, YPA, and top-5 in sack percentage. He was still an above average starter in 2020. I'm not arguing he's still that guy, but calling that "pretty bad" basically means there are like 8 QBs in the NFL who aren't "pretty bad"
Click to expand...
I think people misremember or confuse the at the end of their careers QBs Rivers and Matt Ryan times playing for the Colts. Ryan was horrible.
 
travdogg said:
Hooper31 said:
travdogg said:
(Seattle's run D is only average)
Click to expand...

Curious to know which metric you are using to make this statement. Or perhaps not a stat, but a general feeling?

I ask not to be contrarian, but due to a feeling. Stats would show us that Seattle has a much better than average run defense, but I teach advanced placement statistics for a living and I'm always on the lookout for dirty stats that absolutely wreck the notion of "independence". Not all rushing attempts are the same. Not all run stops are the same. Not all opportunities are the same. The stats are being complied behind different offense lines and against different defense schemes and personnel.

My gut tells me Seattle might struggle to stop the run today. We shall see.
Click to expand...
Seattle is technically 5th in run defense, but 25th in tackling %. To me that means the 5th in run defense, is more about who they faced than them doing a great job. They are 10th in pass rush win rate, and 4th in coverage rate, that all leads me to thinking the run D is the place to attack.
Click to expand...

Which metric yields 5th? Is that yards per game (4th)? yards per carry (2nd)?

Tackling % feels like a purely subjective number. Are all missed tackles the same? Some more egregious than others? Where do these numbers come from? I ask because I really don't know and would like to learn.
 
JoeKappBudGrant said:
travdogg said:
Hooper31 said:
travdogg said:
(Seattle's run D is only average)
Click to expand...

Curious to know which metric you are using to make this statement. Or perhaps not a stat, but a general feeling?

I ask not to be contrarian, but due to a feeling. Stats would show us that Seattle has a much better than average run defense, but I teach advanced placement statistics for a living and I'm always on the lookout for dirty stats that absolutely wreck the notion of "independence". Not all rushing attempts are the same. Not all run stops are the same. Not all opportunities are the same. The stats are being complied behind different offense lines and against different defense schemes and personnel.

My gut tells me Seattle might struggle to stop the run today. We shall see.
Click to expand...
Seattle is technically 5th in run defense, but 25th in tackling %. To me that means the 5th in run defense, is more about who they faced than them doing a great job. They are 10th in pass rush win rate, and 4th in coverage rate, that all leads me to thinking the run D is the place to attack.
Click to expand...
Seattle has 5 wins by over 21 points and 8 by over 7. Teams usually give up on the run when they are that far behind.
Click to expand...

This seems reasonable. Seattle has built some big leads and would explain why their run defense might not be as good as some of the statistics might indicate.
 
The only thing that might go against Seattle and it’s a big reach, is if they are overconfident and don’t play up to expectations. Really it’s the only chance the Colts have.
 
boilerdave said:
travdogg said:
efactor said:
Rivers was pretty bad last time he played. Has he gotten better with age? Could be ugly
Click to expand...
In what world was Rivers pretty bad last time he played? Rivers was in the top-10 in passing yards, completion %, YPA, and top-5 in sack percentage. He was still an above average starter in 2020. I'm not arguing he's still that guy, but calling that "pretty bad" basically means there are like 8 QBs in the NFL who aren't "pretty bad"
Click to expand...
I think people misremember or confuse the at the end of their careers QBs Rivers and Matt Ryan times playing for the Colts. Ryan was horrible.
Click to expand...
Quite probable in my case
 
How could anyone predict this one? Who knows what Rivers may or may not have left in the tank. Gun to my head I think Seattle wins easily, but if Phillip is still dealing Indy is talented enough to pull it out.
 
Feel like this one is gonna get ugly quick but it definitely could be unpredictable. Rivers actually played pretty well when he left, but Colts had a top O'line that year. Plus he's been gone how long? That he's even playing today is crazy
 
As a Rivers fan, I think it is very cool that his son (a 4 star class of 2026 QB recruit) is present watching, and his high school team is having a watch party. Can't remember either thing happening for an NFL player before...
 
Shows you how poor a product the NFL actually is when a 44 year old ex QB who has been sitting on his couch for 5 years can come in and play
that week and be better than 75% of the scrubs who play

Also shows how poor the coaching is in the league that coaches can allow that to happen, Seattle coaching has been below poor so far this game
The offensive play calling is atrocious, the defensive scheme is really poor

It's almost as if they are throwing the game for entertainment purposes, oh wait, that's what the NFL is
 
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