Comparison of 3 Amazing Seasons (1 Viewer)

[thatguy]

Just wanted to compare these 3 phenomenal seasons (I considered including Welker, but didn't think his rate stats would hold up against the others given his sheer number of both targets and receptions). A closer look at the numbers suggests that Jordy's season might the most impressive of the 3. In any case, here it is (YPT = yards per target):

Gronk: 90-1317-17 (124 targets), 72.6% catch rate, 14.6 YPR, 10.6 YPT, 1TD/5.3 receptions, 1TD/ 7.3 targets

Calvin: 96-1681-16 (158 targets), 60.1% catch rate, 17.5 YPR, 10.6 YPT, 1TD/6 receptions, 1TD/ 9.9 targets

Jordy: 68-1263-15 (94 targets), 72.3& catch rate, 18.6 YPR, 13.4 YPT, 1TD/4.5 receptions, 1TD/6.3 targets

(if we were to count Gronk's sole rushing TD as a reception and receiving TD, since for all intents and purposes it was a pass play, his TD rate stats would be as follows: 1TD/5.1 receptions, 1TD/ 6.9 targets... I didn't bother looking at the effect it would have on his other rate stats)

Just wanted to throw those numbers out there for your perusing enjoyment, discuss if you want, or you know, whatever. The bottom line is those are 3 phenomenal receiving seasons (and there were so many other great seasons with Welker, Graham, Cruz, not to mention the seasons of the two phenomenal rookies Greeen and Jones).

Jordy's rate stats are out of this world, pretty much dominating everywhere except catch rate, in which he and Gronk are nearly identical. I have to think his is one of, if not the most efficient seasons ever for a WR (assuming they meet a certain threshold of targets/receptions).

And thus, for my money, I think Jordy Nelson's 2011 season was the most impressive of those listed (this is not taking into account the fact that Gronk is a TE, and broke both the yardage and TD record for his position, I'm just looking purely at the stats without regard to position--if we take position into account, it's hard not to consider Gronk's the most impressive given that it was easily the most impressive in the history of the NFL for his position).

Fire away gentlemen...

 

[harryhood]

Jordy also did a good amount of his damage in 8 home games. It doesn't have much bearing on the discussion, and does seem like pure aberration....but the home/road splits for him this year are crazy.

 

[thatguy]

Jordy also did a good amount of his damage in 8 home games. It doesn't have much bearing on the discussion, and does seem like pure aberration....but the home/road splits for him this year are crazy.

Good point. I had forgotten about that, but now I remember reading about it in the amazing stats thread.

 

[FantasyTrader]

In my eyes, Jordy's is the least impressive of the three. Don't get me wrong, he had a phenomenal year. But I'd venture to guess he faced the "friendliest" matchups of the three. The Packers have so many weapons on offense Nelson was double teamed roughly never. But Calvin/Gronkowski often found a way to get theirs when defenses did everything humanly possible to take them away.

 

[David Yudkin]

Nelson's scoring rate of 1 TD for every 4.53 cathces does not even rank in the Top 60 seasons since 1960 for players that caught at least 10 TD passes. Bucky Pope leads that list with 10 TD scored in 25 catches in 1964.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Bucky Pope? The Bucky Pope?

Think I read before yesterday's game that Calvin's year was one of six all-time that exceeded 85-14xx-15. The other names on the list were one from Marvin, one or two from Moss, and the rest were Jerry Rice. I imagine after tacking on 11-244-1 he's top 3ish WR seasons all-time?

Megatron made some amazing plays all year - just unreal how often he goes up into double or triple coverage and rips the ball away. Yeah, it's physical talent, for sure, but it's also a mentality.

Gronk's numbers are Ruthian. He could have scored something like 6 less TDs and still finished ahead of Jimmy Graham for TE1. Hell, he could have caught 1 TD and still finished TE2. But I think it's worth keeping in mind that at least part of Gronkowski's success lies in the nightmarish matchups: Welker out of the slot, the third most productive Tight End in the league (Aaron Hernandez) moving around the formation, and a QB who is arguably the best of his generation. Ditto for Nelson - great year, and I'll give you the efficiency thing if you think that is meaningful.

But here's an interesting what if: on how many teams would Gronk still produce at a TE1 level? I'd say quite a few, he's a load. Maybe he wouldn't catch 17 TDs, but he'd be right there with anyone, and almost surely still be a pro bowler.

Does anyone really believe Jordy Nelson has a pro bowl season in another system? Oops, my bad...he didn't have a pro bowl season, the guy lining up at WR on the opposite side of the field (Greg Jennings) did.

It's a rhetorical to ask the same thing of CJ, given that he's performed at high level with the likes of Dan Orlovsky or Shaun Hill chucking it. Stafford-Johnson is a lethal combo, but they would each be brilliant even without each other.

 

[smackdaddies]

All three had great years, but Calvin Johnson put on a show yesterday that convinced me he is one of the very best of all time. He was covered (generally), man coverage by Trevon Williams, plus had safety help over the top.11 catches. 244 yards 1 td. It was a crazy demonstration of both CJ and Stafford,

Of course Megatron did manage to drop the one TD pass where the Pack blew the coverage and he had no one on him

Still, he did look like a man among boys.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

We're comparing a TE to the very top WRs? The TE had the best season.

 

[Acrobat7]

Nelson is the most unlikely to repeat so therefore he is the most impressive...

 

[jon_mx]

All three had great years, but Calvin Johnson put on a show yesterday that convinced me he is one of the very best of all time. He was covered (generally), man coverage by Trevon Williams, plus had safety help over the top.11 catches. 244 yards 1 td. It was a crazy demonstration of both CJ and Stafford,Of course Megatron did manage to drop the one TD pass where the Pack blew the coverage and he had no one on him Still, he did look like a man among boys.

But he did drop an easy TD yesterday. Wide open in the middle of the field, Stafford threw it a bit behind him, but it was still a very catchable ball.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Just wanted to compare these 3 phenomenal seasons (I considered including Welker, but didn't think his rate stats would hold up against the others given his sheer number of both targets and receptions). A closer look at the numbers suggests that Jordy's season might the most impressive of the 3. In any case, here it is (YPT = yards per target):Gronk: 90-1317-17 (124 targets), 72.6% catch rate, 14.6 YPR, 10.6 YPT, 1TD/5.3 receptions, 1TD/ 7.3 targetsCalvin: 96-1681-16 (158 targets), 60.1% catch rate, 17.5 YPR, 10.6 YPT, 1TD/6 receptions, 1TD/ 9.9 targetsJordy: 68-1263-15 (94 targets), 72.3& catch rate, 18.6 YPR, 13.4 YPT, 1TD/4.5 receptions, 1TD/6.3 targets (if we were to count Gronk's sole rushing TD as a reception and receiving TD, since for all intents and purposes it was a pass play, his TD rate stats would be as follows: 1TD/5.1 receptions, 1TD/ 6.9 targets... I didn't bother looking at the effect it would have on his other rate stats)Just wanted to throw those numbers out there for your perusing enjoyment, discuss if you want, or you know, whatever. The bottom line is those are 3 phenomenal receiving seasons (and there were so many other great seasons with Welker, Graham, Cruz, not to mention the seasons of the two phenomenal rookies Greeen and Jones). Jordy's rate stats are out of this world, pretty much dominating everywhere except catch rate, in which he and Gronk are nearly identical. I have to think his is one of, if not the most efficient seasons ever for a WR (assuming they meet a certain threshold of targets/receptions). And thus, for my money, I think Jordy Nelson's 2011 season was the most impressive of those listed (this is not taking into account the fact that Gronk is a TE, and broke both the yardage and TD record for his position, I'm just looking purely at the stats without regard to position--if we take position into account, it's hard not to consider Gronk's the most impressive given that it was easily the most impressive in the history of the NFL for his position).Fire away gentlemen...

Big fan of Gronk here... but Graham and him go in together, almost no way to separate them. Before Gronk had the TE record, Graham had it and they're still separated by just a few yards. Gronk must have gotten the record on the last pass after the Saints were done.>>>New England Patriots at 01:30 1-10-NE19 (1:30) NE 8-Hoyer now at QB. B.Hoyer pass deep left to R.Gronkowski pushed ob at NE 41 for 22 yards (D.Florence). NE 87-Gronkowski 1,409 receiving yards, new NFL record for rec yds by a TE in a season (Jimmy Graham 2011). NE 87-Gronkowski 6th career 100-yard game.<<<Hoyer kneeled after that.Gronk: 90-1317-17 (124 targets), 72.6% catch rate, 14.6 YPR, 10.6 YPT, 1TD/5.3 receptions, 1TD/ 7.3 targetsGraham: 99-1310-11 (148 targets), 66.9% catch rate, 13.2 YPR, 8.9 YPT, 1TD/9.0 receptions, 1TD/ 13.4 targetsGronk finished 6th in receiving yards, Graham 7th.Gronk finished 5th in receptions, Graham 3rd (between Roddy White and Calvin Johnson).Something else: Graham (74) and Gronk (69) came in just behind Calvin, Roddy & Welker (77) for most 1st downs receiving in the league.Still, have to put Calvin first, Gronk & Graham second - and actually have to give Gronk the nod at 2nd because of the TDs - and then I am not sure where Nelson falls but he's somewhere below 3rd/4th in terms of most impactful receivers this year. I would probably go Welker, Cruz and Sproles next.

 

[rizzler]

Jordy Nelson???

pffff, B please. Laurent Robinson, sitting at 11 tds, and getting zero love.

his stats, after moving to Dallas, were silky smooth. Beastly

3rd most in the NFL among WRs.

jordy destroyed him in fantasy production, yes... but is also on the pack, while robinson spent half his time on the worst of the worst

 

[thatguy]

I think a lot of you are looking at this for more than what it is, which is a comparison of numbers and rate stats, without regard to anything else. I just found myself very impressed with how efficient Jordy was with both his targets and his receptions. For the opposite of efficient with regard to targets, you need look no further than his teammate, Jermichael Finley.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I think a lot of you are looking at this for more than what it is, which is a comparison of numbers and rate stats, without regard to anything else. I just found myself very impressed with how efficient Jordy was with both his targets and his receptions. For the opposite of efficient with regard to targets, you need look no further than his teammate, Jermichael Finley.

Could you tell me the numbers and rate stats for Randall Cobb, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver?Don't most if not all those guys rank near the top ten or top twenty for the categories you think make Jordy so special?

 

[thatguy]

I think a lot of you are looking at this for more than what it is, which is a comparison of numbers and rate stats, without regard to anything else. I just found myself very impressed with how efficient Jordy was with both his targets and his receptions. For the opposite of efficient with regard to targets, you need look no further than his teammate, Jermichael Finley.

Could you tell me the numbers and rate stats for Randall Cobb, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver?Don't most if not all those guys rank near the top ten or top twenty for the categories you think make Jordy so special?

Perhaps, but top 10/20 is a long way from first.

 

[thatguy]

And let me clarify, I'm not necessarily saying Jordy is special, and certainly not saying he's better than the other guys listed. In fact, I think there are quite a few WR's who are more talented than Jordy Nelson. What I am saying is that his season was extremely special. This shouldn't be that difficult a concept to grasp. The numbers bear it out.

 

[Steed]

Jordy's season was special, it's also the least sustainable.

 

[thatguy]

Jordy's season was special, it's also the least sustainable.

I agree with this 100%.

 

[thatguy]

Bucky Pope? The Bucky Pope?

Think I read before yesterday's game that Calvin's year was one of six all-time that exceeded 85-14xx-15. The other names on the list were one from Marvin, one or two from Moss, and the rest were Jerry Rice. I imagine after tacking on 11-244-1 he's top 3ish WR seasons all-time?

Megatron made some amazing plays all year - just unreal how often he goes up into double or triple coverage and rips the ball away. Yeah, it's physical talent, for sure, but it's also a mentality.

Gronk's numbers are Ruthian. He could have scored something like 6 less TDs and still finished ahead of Jimmy Graham for TE1. Hell, he could have caught 1 TD and still finished TE2. But I think it's worth keeping in mind that at least part of Gronkowski's success lies in the nightmarish matchups: Welker out of the slot, the third most productive Tight End in the league (Aaron Hernandez) moving around the formation, and a QB who is arguably the best of his generation. Ditto for Nelson - great year, and I'll give you the efficiency thing if you think that is meaningful.

But here's an interesting what if: on how many teams would Gronk still produce at a TE1 level? I'd say quite a few, he's a load. Maybe he wouldn't catch 17 TDs, but he'd be right there with anyone, and almost surely still be a pro bowler.

Does anyone really believe Jordy Nelson has a pro bowl season in another system? Oops, my bad...he didn't have a pro bowl season, the guy lining up at WR on the opposite side of the field (Greg Jennings) did.

It's a rhetorical to ask the same thing of CJ, given that he's performed at high level with the likes of Dan Orlovsky or Shaun Hill chucking it. Stafford-Johnson is a lethal combo, but they would each be brilliant even without each other.

I somehow missed this post before BL, and I agree with everything you said. Again, I'm in no way comparing talent here--Calvin is a freak, Gronk is an absolute beast, Jordy is a nice player. Nonetheless, the season happened the way it did, and my only point is that Jordy put up one of the most efficient per/target seasons I've witnessed in my 20 or so years of watching football.

 

[thatguy]

We're comparing a TE to the very top WRs? The TE had the best season.

I pointed this out in the OP:"(this is not taking into account the fact that Gronk is a TE, and broke both the yardage and TD record for his position, I'm just looking purely at the stats without regard to position--if we take position into account, it's hard not to consider Gronk's the most impressive given that it was easily the most impressive in the history of the NFL for his position)"

 

[thatguy]

Jordy Nelson???pffff, B please. Laurent Robinson, sitting at 11 tds, and getting zero love.his stats, after moving to Dallas, were silky smooth. Beastly3rd most in the NFL among WRs.jordy destroyed him in fantasy production, yes... but is also on the pack, while robinson spent half his time on the worst of the worst

You're absolutely right, Robinson had an amazing season, and incredible rate stats in his own right. But they just don't stack up to Jordy's. No one's do. Again, for the too many-eth time, because I know I'm going to continue to hear "Are you honestly saying Jordy is better than .....?!?", I am not comparing talent, nor am I comparing situation. I'm simply comparing pure, raw, unbiased, unadjusted for situation, stats. That's all.

 

[bucsbaby]

After watching Calvin a fair amount this year, I think that there is room for him to actually IMPROVE on what he did this year

 

[Big_Russel]

We're comparing a TE to the very top WRs? The TE had the best season.