1. Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State - Can you find a hole in this guy’s game on tape? I sure can’t. Depending who you ask, Bryant is “flaky” and “immature” or he’s a bad character guy that teams shouldn’t bother with. His talent is so rare and characters like him at the WR position are so common that the risk is certainly worth taking for teams picking in the middle of the first round (see also: Randy Moss), and absolutely worth taking if you own the #1 overall rookie pick in a PPR league. Bryant has the strength, ups, hands, body control and balance, fearlessness, and killer instinct to be the kind of WR that can score from anywhere on the field whether its a deep ball, bubble screen, or pass into the middle of a headhunting safety’s zone.
NFL Comparison: Smaller, but more sudden Larry Fitzgerald
2. CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson - Spiller could easily end up on a team without a heavy need at RB (SF, NYG, NE) and Ryan Mathews could end up on a team with an immediate need like Houston or San Diego, and the two will flip-flop on many rookie draft boards, if Spiller isn’t third already. Don’t fall prey to this if you own the #2 pick. If anything, try to trade down to #3, because between the two RBs, Spiller is the one with the staying power of a possible transcendent talent. Spiller has a lethal combination of quicks, speed, vision, and natural playmaking instincts that should make him one of the premier game breakers at the RB position, even if he isn’t a clear lead back. He’s compactly built and runs stronger than you have been lead to believe, but he doesn’t have Chris Johnson’s strength through the hips and mean streak running inside, so Spiller might not get Johnson’s workload, but otherwise, he can be the same kind of presence in an offense. He’s also a good receiver with big hands, and even if you have to wait for production, if you take Spiller, you’ll get the best RB in this draft.
NFL Comparison: Chris Johnson minus some turbo and inside running
3. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech - It’s becoming clearer than not only will Dwyer fall out of the first round, he’ll likely fall out of the first 50 picks and even out of the top two rounds. You won’t need to take him nearly this high to get him in your rookie draft, but this ranking is not a draft guide. Dwyer has to work on his conditioning and there are questions about how he’ll translate outside of the triple option, but to me these issues indicate even more upside for a player that flashed a lot during his collegiate career. He hasn’t had the chance to line up often in the natural tailback position, which offers more depth from the line and two-point stance, meaning better reads and more burst at the point of attack. Dwyer’s thick build, natural tackle breaking ability (especially below the waist) and outstanding lateral agility make him the best-suited RB in this draft running the ball 300 times in the NFL, and he’s also a better receiver and faster than advertised. He’s the one back in this draft that could become a special workhorse if things come together. By no means should you take Dwyer third overall, after the draft he may even be available outside of the top 10, but when evaluating his potential for fantasy football, it’s hard to not get excited.
NFL Comparison: Jonathan Stewart minus fifth gear with LenDale White conditioning issues
4. Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State - I highly doubt anyone gets Mathews outside of the top 3 in rookie drafts, and it won’t surprise me if he goes #1 in some leagues. My reservations about Mathews have to do with straight-linish running game. I think he can flourish in a good offense, but he won’t create much on his own if he’s in a bad offense. He’s strong and fast, but I would peg his upside right around a player Cecil compared him to - Ryan Grant. Mathews is a very safe rookie pick, and he should be a solid RB2 for a long time, but I don’t see a real difference maker when I watch him.
NFL Comparison: Donald Brown
5. Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford - Gerhart will break down some of the rigid player associations by race within the RB position. He is not exceptionally fast, sudden, or elusive, but he possesses all of those qualities to some degree in a strong, big frame with a marauding attitude. Gerhart came up big when it mattered most and he seems to relish contact. He has some subtlety to his game and he will be an automatic option inside the five.
NFL Comparison: Jerome Bettis with heavier feet
6. Jahvid Best, RB, Cal - Best is right there with Spiller in terms of pure speed, quicks, and open-field running instincts, but he is built less compact than Spiller and seems to run with a style that puts his health at risk. Best is also not much for pass protection and he projects as a committee back at the next level in any scenario. He can still have strong fantasy value because Im sure his game will translate, but he won’t be a consistent week-to-week presence in the box scores, frustrating his owners.
NFL Comparison: Darren Sproles
7. Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois - Benn stands out to me in an otherwise uninspiring second tier of wide receivers. His natural adjustments to the ball and explosive leaping ability make him suited to be a terrific jumpball target, and his speed, fluid athleticism, strength, and RB mentality in the open field will make him a bear after the catch. There are durability questions and Benn is a bust risk for sure, but his ceiling is higher than any wideout not named Bryant.
NFL Comparison: Brandon Marshall
8. Montario Hardesty, RB, Tennessee - Hardesty looks like a perfect fit in a zone blocking scheme running game, and he has as much juice in his legs as any back in this draft when it comes to downhill running and efficiency. His initial burst is excellent, he has some moves, and he gets yards after contact. Hardesty doesn’t present as rare a package of physical attributes as the guys ahead of him on this list, but he could be more productive in the right situation.
NFL Comparison: Travis Henry
9. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma - Bradford is well-suited to run a pass-happy offense with his quick release, accuracy, good feet, and hair-trigger decision-making. His shoulder condition and overall durability keep him from being an uberelite QB prospect, along with a lack of top-end arm strength, but he’s more than good enough to be a a top 5 pick and franchise QB for an NFL team and eventual starter for your fantasy team.
NFL Comparison: Matt Schaub
10. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma - Gresham has to convince teams that his knee is ok, but as long as he does, he should be a first-round pick. He’s massive, but very fluid for player his size, and he’s got natural hands, ball skills, and run after catch instincts. His size and strength make him a load to bring down after the catch, and Gresham should also be a red zone weapon. He leads another great class of receiving TEs.
NFL Comparison: Kellen Winslow
11. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida - Hernandez is a bit of tough nut to crack because he’s somewhat in the mold of receiving only TEs from last year’s class who have disappointed so far like Jared Cook, Chase Coffman, and Travis Beckum. On the other hand, Hernandez is a better natural receiver than any of those guys. His hands are sure, his open field running and change of direction are outstanding for a TE, he can sky to get the high ball, and he’s tough, strong, and balanced when it comes time to take a hit. He could be an 80+ catch player in the right system, an afterthought in the wrong one. For now, we’ll err on the side of ranking him where he’d be if he lands somewhere like New England or New Orleans.
NFL Comparison: Chris Cooley
12. Andre Roberts, WR, The Citadel - This year’s top small school WR places high in the pre-draft 100, which may a reflection on the quality of the top IDP and second-tier offensive prospects as much as its an indication of Roberts talent. He has soft hands and impeccable ball tracking and body control when making a play on the ball in the air, but he shines even more after the catch. Roberts runs with great quickness and explosion with his short stride and compact build, and he stays low to the ground instinctively like a running back. Great field vision developed as a punt returner just finishes the package of this player who should become a very strong #2 receiver.
NFL Comparison: DeSean Jackson minus elite speed
13. Jordan Shipley, WR, Texas - Shipley is obviously one of my favorite players in this draft. He’ll be drafted as a role player, but his team will soon see that they have a future starter on their hands. In a word, his game is natural. He doesn’t have elite size, quicks, or explosion, but he gets more out of what he has than most NFL receivers get out of their gifts. His decent speed is made better by moves that can freeze would-be tacklers (those moves also do that in his routes), and an instinctive ability to quickly turn upfield and convert to run after catch mode. He also plays with a ton of desire and a knack for coming through in big moments. His balance, footwork, and body control finish off a smooth style of play that should translate well.
NFL Comparison: Austin Collie if he could do something after the catch
14. Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU - LaFell has fewer holes in his game than the second tier WRs above him on this list, but his ceiling is also much lower. He’s a rugged possession receiver who will be a tough customer after the catch, with surprising fluid athleticism and ability to set up DBs with advanced route running technique. LaFell sees the field well and he has dependable hands, a nice combination for a future third-down target.
NFL Comparison: Jerricho Cotchery minus some quicks and speed
15. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech - Ive already taken some flak for not having Thomas in my top 10, so I’m sure seeing names Roberts and Shipley ahead of Thomas will likely rankle his backers even more. I’ll admit that Thomas has great straight line speed for a large man, but otherwise, I’m not seeing much to hang my hat on. He can hang in the air, but he looks heavy and not at all explosive as a leaper, and Thomas doesn’t seem to snag the ball as much as he lets it land in his hands like an outfielder. He’s not that fluid or sudden, and I’m not sure that he’ll create much separation on short and intermediate routes that require those qualities. He is aggressive after the catch with a nice stiff arm, but right now Thomas looks like a one-dimensional player to me. He might be a first round pick because of the NFL’s love affair with size/speed receivers, but I won’t spend a first-round pick in rookie drafts on Thomas.
NFL Comparison: Bigger, but less agile Robert Meachem
16. Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame - Tate is another guy who seems to have some of the pieces of a starting WR’s game, but he is missing enough to drop him out of the top 12 on this list. He’s fast, but not a true burner, he’s good in the air, but not big enough to win jump ball battles, he can catch tough passes, but lets easy ones get to his body. Tate is very sudden on the move and the strongest part of his game is his ability to make hay after the catch, but he doesn’t look like a natural receiver to me, and I think he’ll struggle to be consistent enough to produce on a week-in, week-out basis.
NFL Comparison: slightly less athletic Devery Henderson
17. Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama - McClain may land in the draft’s top 20 overall picks, but he doesn’t have the range or playmaking ability of an elite IDP LB. He is a bit lumbering in the open field, and while he has good instincts, McClain is not a seek and destroy LB like Curtis Lofton, who teams had some similar speed concerns about when he was drafted two years ago. McClain will fit well inside in a 3-4, where his lack of pursuit speed can be masked and he can play downhill, but his upside in IDP leagues is capped enough to make him a less attractive option than the second tier WRs.
NFL Comparison: Andra Davis with top notch instincts and intangibles
18. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona - It’s hard to project Gronkowski too high on this list because back injuries that require surgery and sink a season are scary, but Gronk will be a good one and reward the NFL team and fantasy owners that take a chance on him as long as the back is sound. He’s not an elite athlete, but he has sticky hands and a mean streak as a blocker and runner after the catch. He also runs good routes and understands how to find soft spots in a zone. Along with Gresham and Hernandez, Gronkowski has a chance to become a premier fantasy tight end.
NFL Comparison: Zach Miller
19. Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss - Five or ten years ago, McCluster would have been a lot lower on this list, but the NFL has evolved to embrace a player of his talents. McCluster will be a lethal wildcat QB, a cat-quick slot receiver, and a running back that is good for 5-10 change of pace touches in space a game. He has the best phone-booth quicks of any player in this class and McCluster just knows what to do when the ball is in his hands. He is small, but he runs with courage, and McCluster should become a fan favorite, if not fantasy favorite at the next level.
NFL Comparison: sleeker, smaller Josh Cribbs
20. Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati - Gilyard is going to be an excellent slot receiver, with good speed and moves after the catch and good enough hands and toughness to work the middle of the field, but I don’t see the game in the air, physical presence against press coverage, or deep speed that Gilyard would need to be a starting WR. He’ll be an excellent pick in return yardage leagues, and he’s a dynamic enough talent to gamble on in the late 2nd of rookie drafts, but his upside is limited.
NFL Comparison: Patrick Crayton with more juice in his legs
21. Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri - Weatherspoon could easily be your #1 rookie draft LB after the picks are announced later this week. He’s got the range and skills to stay on the field for all three downs, and he is a better fit as a 4-3 MLB than Rolando McClain (*cough* Giants *cough*), although his most likely destination seems to be playing outside in Atlanta’s 4-3 defense.
NFL Comparison: Jon Beason
22. Taylor Price, WR, Ohio - Price is very advanced for having played in a very weak passing offense at Ohio. His speed, quicks, and toughness make him a good wildcat QB in addition to a strong WR prospect. Price understands how to use his physical gifts to create separation and get extra yards in the open field, and he shouldn’t last past the third round of the draft.
NFL Comparison: Andre Caldwell
23. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, SMU - Sanders plays very fast and explosive, but always under control. He can break down a defender in the open field, and he sacrifices his body in the air to make the play. He has a slight build and might get pushed around at the next level, but the natural playmaking instincts should bubble to the surface again as he physically matures.
NFL Comparison: Steve Breaston
24. Carlton Mitchell, WR, South Florida - No doubt about it, Mitchell is starting NFL quality when it comes to physical attributes. He’s long, strong, fast, and explosive. He’ll need a few years to round out his game, but we were saying the same thing about Mike Wallace last year and he is poised to start for the Steelers.
NFL Comparison: Jacoby Jones
25. Donald Butler, LB, Washington - You have to love players who come up biggest when the most is on the line, and Butler did, leading the Huskies to an upset of USC by intercepting a pass, forcing a fumble and racking up 12 tackles. Butler definitely has the coverage skills to stay on the field for all three downs, although some teams may view him as an OLB prospect because he’s not big enough to defeat blocks from pulling guards.
NFL Comparison: Jerod Mayo
26. Anthony Dixon, RB, Miss St - Dixon is going to have a good NFL career because he plays all out and he offers enough versatility to play an RB/FB tweener role. Dixon will provide his NFL team with great depth at RB and a talent that can be used in various ways by a creative offensive coordinator. He won’t ever enter the season atop the depth chart, but he could be very productive when the lead back ahead of him gets dinged, and he could even force his way into a committee.
NFL Comparison: Jason Snelling
27. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame - Count me among the group that is not sold on Clausen as a franchise QB. He’s lacking a signature win and has no plus tools or abilities to give him a trump card against NFL defenses. I think he is more a product of surrounding talent and system than a future quality NFL QB, but he’ll still get the chance to start and fail repeatedly like most first-round QBs, and that’s worth something in dynasty leagues.
NFL Comparison: Matt Cassel
28. Dennis Pitta, TE, BYU - Pitta catches everything and he is the aggressor while running routes against linebackers. His speed is adequate to good at best, but he has moves and instincts after the catch even though he is not a threat to break a big play. Pitta is the kind of target that will earn his QBs trust with consistency.
NFL Comparison: Owen Daniels
29. Brandon Graham, OLB/DE, Michigan - Graham’s eventual fantasy value may hinge on whether he goes to a 3-4 or a 4-3 defense, but either way, he’ll be a player. He doesn’t have ideal length for a edge rusher, but like Elvis Dumervil, Dwight Freeney, and Lamarr Woodley, Graham uses his lack of basketball height to get superior leverage against taller tackles. His motor never stops, so Graham should be around the ball a lot for a player who lines up at or near the line of scrimmage.
NFL Comparison: Lamarr Woodley
30. Eric Berry, S, Tennessee - Berry is one of the four or five best safeties to come out of the college ranks in the last ten years. Whether that will translate to fantasy numbers is yet to be seen, as recent franchise safeties like LaRon Landry and Sean Taylor have been marooned away from the action as do-everything centerfielders. Still, you’re getting a player with almost zero bust risk, a complete game, and big play instincts when you take Berry.
NFL Comparison: Ed Reed
31. Damian Williams, WR, USC - Williams will go a lot higher in most rookie drafts, but I see a player with limited upside because he lacks outstanding size, speed, quicks, or explosiveness. He is adequate to good in all areas of a wide receiver’s game, but he strikes me as a guy who won’t be more than a solid #3 WR at the next level.
NFL Comparison: Davone Bess
32. Sean Lee, LB, Penn State - Lee is a very smart, tough linebacker who will never be a liability, but he might lack the speed and strength to be the kind of LB that blows plays up or forces turnovers that few LBs could create. Situation is everything - he could be an IDP stud if his path is clear to an ILB spot, like former teammate Paul Posluszny, but he could be buried on a team with a strong MLB, like former teammate Dan Connor.
NFL Comparison: Tedy Bruschi
33. Eric Decker, WR, Minnesota - Decker is about as sure-handed, tough, and polished as they come, but he has little physical upside in terms of quickness, speed, or explosiveness. He could be very productive in the right offense and role, but he could also be passed over by more gifted wideouts on the depth chart over time.
NFL Comparison: Kevin Walter
34. Daryl Washington, LB, TCU - Washington has the athleticism and range to be an everydown tackle machine, but he is not an explosive hitter or very physical LB. He still has a ways to go in terms of instincts and technique, but he could be an outstanding cornerstone of a defense if he grows as much in his first few NFL seasons as he did in his first season as a regular starter at TCU.
NFL Comparison: Will Witherspoon
35. Joe Webb, WR, UAB - Webb’s physical attributes are almost prototypical for the position (6’3” 220, 4.44 40, strong, huge hands, long arms, quick), but he was a QB last year for UAB, and he will need to be built from the ground up as a WR. His ceiling is as high as any WR in this class not named Bryant, and he has the work ethic and intangibles to make the switch, so he’s a risk worth taking in the third round of your rookie drafts.
NFL Comparison: Legedu Naanee
36. Navorro Bowman, LB, Penn State - Bowman is an aggressive downhill LB who makes a ton of plays on the offense’s side of the line of scrimmage. He plays all-out, angry and physical, just the way you expect a Linebacker U LB to play. He’s got some off-the-field issues, he might have come out a year early, and he is undersized, but Bowman’s intensity and instincts should get him into the starting lineup sooner than later.
NFL Comparison: Thomas Davis
37. Mike Williams, WR, Syracuse - None of us should be shocked if Williams is one of best three WRs in this class in five years, nor should it surprise us if Williams is one of the first three WRs to get cut by his team in rookie minicamp. His long frame, strength, agility, and good enough speed add up to a starting quality NFL WR, if not a #1 in the making, but his work ethic and on-again, off-again status on the Orange roster during his career are very worrisome. If Williams does make it, he’ll be a red zone monster with his natural ball skills and “my ball” mentality.
NFL Comparison: Chris Henry
38. Derrick Morgan, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech - Like Graham, Morgan would become a very valuable IDP if he goes to a 4-3 defense where he would join the dwindling ranks of 4-3 ends who can rush the passer and play the run with equal aplomb. Morgan is durable, smart, and young (just turned 21), so we could just be seeing the tip of his upside iceberg.
NFL Comparison: Tamba Hali
39. Blair White, WR, Michigan State - White won’t leave any corners in the dust, and he’s not going to make many highlight plays, but he just gets the job done as a receiver and blocker, and he’s and tough and cagey after the catch. The former walk-on is about as reliable as any receiver in this class when it comes to making the grab and he should settle in as excellent depth with a chance to excel in a good passing offense.
NFL Comparison: Jordy Nelson
40. Chris McGaha, WR, Arizona State - McGaha’s hands, body control, routes, effort, and overall football savvy are NFL starting quality, but he lacks the speed or quicks to create consistent separation at the next level. Still, part of me thinks that he’ll work his way up the depth chart with his consistent execution and ability to make the most out of what he has by setting up defensive backs over the course of a game.
NFL Comparison: Greg Camarillo
41. Joe McKnight, RB, USC - McKnight hasn’t been the gamebreaker Trojan fans envisioned when he showed up as part of a monumental RB class, but he did reinvent himself as a tough inside runner in 2009 when USC’s inexperience at QB demanded a more robust running game. McKnight is versatile and he will be at least good depth, if not a minor RBBC member in the pros, but not more.
NFL Comparison: Mewelde Moore
42. Ben Tate, RB, Auburn - Tate has been a hot commodity since the combine because of his measureables, but I don’t see the creativity and crisp cuts and decisions in his running style for his long speed to come into play. He’ll be fine NFL, but Tate won’t play up to his size/speed potential.
NFL Comparison: Glen Coffee
43. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas - McCoy’s gamesmanship, athleticism, toughness, and winning ways will draw a team into taking him in the second round, but I am worried about McCoy playing within his abilities in the NFL. He already tended to bite off more than he could chew with his limited arm strength at Texas, in the pros, he’ll have to be much more disciplined. In the right system, he could flourish, but he could also be just another A.J. Feeley.
NFL Comparison: Jeff Garcia
44. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida - I’m not convinced that we’ll see Tebow on the field before 2012, and I don’t see the kind of QB who will be a fantasy force (at least in his current form), but Tebow should be re-engineered to have a more compact delivery and quick-twitch thinking to attack defenses. The team that takes him will be a Tebow believer, so he’s very likely to get the keys to a franchise before his rookie contract is up.
NFL Comparison: Steve McNair
45. Jeremy Williams, WR, Tulane - Williams is a technician in his routes with great hands and run after catch instincts. He lacks the size, speed, or raw athleticism to get a team excited about his prospects as a playmaker, but he could be very productive in a west coast offense.
NFL Comparison: Earl Bennett
46. Rennie Curran, LB, Georgia - Every time I watched the Bulldogs I came away impressed with this seek-and-destroy LB who is always around the ball. 5’10” 230 LBs are considered too small to make it in the NFL, and the cover 2 scheme that favored speed over size is fading, but I wouldn’t bet against Curran cracking starting the lineup down the line.
NFL Comparison: Quincy Black
47. Riley Cooper, WR, Florida - Cooper is still a work in progress, but he’s massive, athletic, and physical, and he should be a good red zone threat even if he doesn’t develop the consistency to start in the NFL.
NFL Comparison: Michael Jenkins
48. Dezmon Briscoe, WR, Kansas - Briscoe’s lanky frame and ball skills will make him an excellent jumpball threat downfield, but the quickness and speed that Briscoe needs to become a more well-rounded receiver just aren’t there, so his upside his limited.
NFL Comparison: Malcom Floyd
49. David Gettis, WR, Baylor - Gettis’s size/speed combo of 6’3” 215 and a 40 time in low 4.4’s will make a team devote a few years to developing his game. Gettis needs to become a natural hands catcher and polish his route running, but if it all clicks, his rare physical ability could make him a starting NFL WR.
NFL Comparison: Ben Obomanu
50. Ed Dickson, TE, Oregon - Dickson has WR-like agility and hands, with TE size and strength. He will still likely be a one-dimensional pass catching threat in the NFL, and he’ll need to land in the right offense to be relevant for fantasy.
NFL Comparison: Travis Beckum
51. Taylor Mays, S, USC - Mays lack of big plays in college is troubling, but he’s a hitter and he has the speed to still put up good tackle numbers even if he is stationed deep to take advantage of his speed.
52. Dorin Dickerson, TE, Pitt - Dickerson’s size/speed combo and red zone prowess make him an intriguing fantasy commodity, but what makes him intriguing to NFL teams - his versatility - could be the undoing of his fantasy future. If he ends up at fullback, it will time to cut bait early, but an inventive offensive coordinator could use Dickerson to create mismatches all over the field.
53. Scott Long, WR, Louisville - If Long can stay healthy, he definitely has the physical tools to hang. He’s a big WR with good hands and physicality
54. Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma - McCoy has a chance to be the premier fantasy DT if he lands in Tampa’s Cover 2. He’s a better gap shooter and pass rusher than Suh and should be around the ball more.
55. Dekoda Watson, LB, Florida State - Watson comes from a program that just churns out speedy, athletic LBs who can make plays all over the field. There are some durability questions, and his tackle totals were low for an LB with his range.
56. Lonyae Miller, RB, Fresno State - Miller never outshone Ryan Mathews, but he is a rugged one-cut-and-go back who should stick in the league and could be productive in a zone blocking scheme running game.
57. Keiland Williams, RB, LSU - Williams had a case of fumblitis that kept him behind the more workmanlike Charles Scott, but Williams size/speed combination is much better suited for NFL play.
58. Armanti Edwards, WR, Appalachian State - No future at QB, but hypercompetitve, quick, tough, fearless should translate at WR, not to mention speed in the 4.4s.
59. Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU - Hughes is a lot like 2009 first-round pick Larry English, tough and relentless, which gets results, but the best fantasy 3-4 OLBs usually have better physical gifts to go with the intangibles.
60. Chad Jones, S, LSU - Jones is a natural playmaker with a great presence in run defense. With more honing of his instincts and a more polished technique, he should become a starter in his second or third year.
61. Eric Norwood, OLB, South Carolina - Norwood is a big LB who should be a good downhill defender vs. the run and pass rusher, but he will be a liability in coverage and might have trouble staying on the field because of it.
62. Jimmy Graham, TE, Miami-FL - The basketball player turned tight end that every draft has to have at least one of, Graham has the requisite size and athleticism to make it as an NFL passcatcher at the position, and he has flashed enough natural football skills to be worth a stash spot on your taxi squad.
63. Deji Karim, RB, Southern Illinois - Karim is a small school back with big game. He’s got good speed and toughness in an NFL-ready compact build.
64. John Skelton, QB, Fordham - Very similar to Joe Flacco tools-wise (size and arm strength), needs a lot of polish, but that was also the book on Flacco when he came out.
65. Jarrett Brown, QB, West Virginia - Spent a lot of his career in the shadow of Pat White, but actually better suited to play QB in the pros than White. Brown’s size, athleticism, and arm strength combo is very reminiscent of Tarvaris Jackson.
66. Kyle Williams, WR, Arizona State - More physically gifted than teammate McGaha, Williams projects as an excellent slot receiver/return man.
67. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska - Suh will see a lot of double teams and he will do a lot to free up others to make plays, but his career at Nebraska indicates that he’ll still make enough plays to be very relevant in DT-required IDP leagues.
68. Pat Angerer, ILB, Iowa - What Angerer lacks in size, he makes up for in energy and instincts. He can be an everydown LB, but he’ll have to get better at shedding blocks - he might only in a 3-4 or behind a stud NT.
69. Nate Allen, S, South Florida - Allen’s tools aren’t quite as flashy as Earl Thomas or Taylor Mays, but he probably has better game when it comes to being able to cover and support against the run with equal effectiveness.
70. Morgan Burnett, S, Georgia Tech - Put up eye-popping numbers in 2008, but came back to earth last year. Burnett is around the ball a lot vs. the run and has a WR-like “my ball” mentality against the pass.
71. Jamar Chaney, ILB, Mississippi State - Chaney has the range to be a three-down linebacker, but he’s small and would probably would only work in a cover 2.
72. Sergio Kindle, OLB/DE, Texas - Kindle will likely go in the first round of the NFL draft because of his sick closing speed and athleticism, but he’s lacking the instincts, consistency, and character to be worth more than a late-round flyer in sack-heavy leagues.
73. Ricky Sapp, OLB, Clemson - Sapp is a gifted pass rusher and he already has a lot of experience getting after the QB from a two-point stance. The rest of his game will have to come around to make him relevant for fantasy, but the sackmaster potential is there.
74. Chris Brown, RB, Oklahoma - Brown projects as a quality third-down/backup RB, as long as his pass blocking comes around.
75. Seyi Ajirotutu, WR, Fresno State - Ajirotutu is very athletic for a long-framed receiver, but he’ll need to work on his game because he got by on his gifts at Fresno State.
76. Tony Moeaki, TE, Iowa - Moeaki is a solid two-way TE with a knack for the circus catch, but numerous past injuries will likely keep him from having a big impact in the pros, still could be another Bo Scaife.
77. Jonathan Crompton, QB, Tennessee - Crompton has all of the tools, including a nice quick release where the ball comes out hot, but he was an inconsistent QB who didn’t show signs of promise until his senior season.
78. Philip Dillard, ILB, Nebraska - He has had the luxury of Ndamukong Suh wreaking havoc in front of him, but Dillard’s all-around game and top-notch effort could eventually get him into a starting lineup.
79. Koa Misi, DE/OLB, Utah - Misi has all the physical attributes and intangibles needed to make the transition from DE to 3-4 OLB in the pros. His motor never quits and he should be productive enough as a tackler to offset the lack of a sick first step that would enable him to get double-digit sacks.
80. Shawnbrey McNeal, RB, SMU - The former Miami-FL back who transferred to take care of his family is more of a nimble scatback with good speed than a between-the-tackler grinder, but he could eventually grow into an RBBC back if he has a power partner.
81. James Starks, RB, Buffalo - Starks will be an excellent receiver and change of pace back, but he’s not elusive or powerful enough to become a primary back.
82. Jacoby Ford, WR, Clemson - Speed, speed, and more speed, but needs to learn the route tree and can’t make defenders miss in the open field.
83. Marcus Easley, WR, Connecticut - Easley is 6’3” 215 with 4.4 speed and a very raw game. He’s a practice squad type player, but one with great potential if he learns the finer points of playing WR.
84. Shay Hodge, WR, Ole Miss - Hodge was very productive in the SEC, and while he doesn’t have elite tools, his size and quickness are a good foundation for an NFL future if he develops more toughness and consistency.
85. Joique Bell, RB, Wayne State - Bell is a good all-around back with patience and vision, but questions about whether his burst and skillset will translate beyond the small school ranks are keeping him low on draft boards.
86. Dan Lefevour, QB, Central Michigan - Lefevour isn’t that different from Colt McCoy, just a little bigger with a little more arm strength, and a lot fewer college wins. He’s athletic and competitive and should be at worst a solid backup in the McCown mold.
87. Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati - Pike is surprisingly athletic with good arm strength and production, but he is a system QB with major durability issues, so he’s the kind of project QB who could clog your taxi squad for a while but never climb the depth chart.
88. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Oregon - Blount is much more well-known than he should be. He’s a huge back, but he doesn’t run with a great burst, power, or pad level. He still has potential, but not as much as you’ve been lead to believe.
89. Stafon Johnson, RB, USC - Johnson was on track to be mid-round pick with his good burst/size combo before a weightlifting accident crushed his larynx. Talent to stick on a roster is there if he comes all the way back.
90. Charles Scott, RB, LSU - You have to give any RB that starts at such a big-time program a shot in the NFL, but Scott looks like a plodder to me, only good for some dirty work between the tackles.
91. Garrett Graham, TE, Wisconsin - Graham is an accomplished pass catcher and very safe NFL pick, but he is not an inline TE, and he doesn’t offer seam-ripping speed or highlight film athleticism, so he’ll likely be a role player in the pros.
92. Reshad Jones, S, Georgia - Jones is a headhunter and a ballhawk, but he needs to play with more discipline to reach his potential.
93. Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida - Spikes timed-with-a-sundial 40 time caused him to plummet down draft boards, but his game is legit and he could be the steal of IDP rookie drafts.
94. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida - As the 3-4 defense continues to sweep the league, true 4-3 ends like Pierre-Paul gain more value. He has elite upside, but he has played so little college football that you know you’ll need to stash him for a while to get a return on your pick.
95. Anthony McCoy, TE, USC - McCoy is the rare blocking TE with good hands and ball skills. He won’t be a playmaker, but it’s not a stretch to see him eventually putting up a Bubba Franks kind of stat-line.
96. LaMarcus Coker, RB, Hampton - Coker was once a big-time prospect at Tennessee. He still has NFL-quality tools, but character issues could have him out of league before the end of his first camp.
97. Danario Alexander, WR, Missouri - Alexander is big and good after the catch, but he has a long way to go to master his craft, and he might have suffered one too many knee injuries to get drafted this weekend.
98. Fendi Onobun, TE, Houston - Another basketball player turned TE, even rawer than Jimmy Graham, but maybe more physically talented.
99. Jameson Konz, TE, Kent State - Exceptional athlete, but still looking for a position and not very natural when it comes to running routes and catching the ball.
100. Jevan Snead, QB, Ole Miss - Snead came out a year too early, but if you look at his 2008 film, particularly the Cotton Bowl win over Texas Tech, there’s something there.
NFL Comparison: Smaller, but more sudden Larry Fitzgerald
2. CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson - Spiller could easily end up on a team without a heavy need at RB (SF, NYG, NE) and Ryan Mathews could end up on a team with an immediate need like Houston or San Diego, and the two will flip-flop on many rookie draft boards, if Spiller isn’t third already. Don’t fall prey to this if you own the #2 pick. If anything, try to trade down to #3, because between the two RBs, Spiller is the one with the staying power of a possible transcendent talent. Spiller has a lethal combination of quicks, speed, vision, and natural playmaking instincts that should make him one of the premier game breakers at the RB position, even if he isn’t a clear lead back. He’s compactly built and runs stronger than you have been lead to believe, but he doesn’t have Chris Johnson’s strength through the hips and mean streak running inside, so Spiller might not get Johnson’s workload, but otherwise, he can be the same kind of presence in an offense. He’s also a good receiver with big hands, and even if you have to wait for production, if you take Spiller, you’ll get the best RB in this draft.
NFL Comparison: Chris Johnson minus some turbo and inside running
3. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech - It’s becoming clearer than not only will Dwyer fall out of the first round, he’ll likely fall out of the first 50 picks and even out of the top two rounds. You won’t need to take him nearly this high to get him in your rookie draft, but this ranking is not a draft guide. Dwyer has to work on his conditioning and there are questions about how he’ll translate outside of the triple option, but to me these issues indicate even more upside for a player that flashed a lot during his collegiate career. He hasn’t had the chance to line up often in the natural tailback position, which offers more depth from the line and two-point stance, meaning better reads and more burst at the point of attack. Dwyer’s thick build, natural tackle breaking ability (especially below the waist) and outstanding lateral agility make him the best-suited RB in this draft running the ball 300 times in the NFL, and he’s also a better receiver and faster than advertised. He’s the one back in this draft that could become a special workhorse if things come together. By no means should you take Dwyer third overall, after the draft he may even be available outside of the top 10, but when evaluating his potential for fantasy football, it’s hard to not get excited.
NFL Comparison: Jonathan Stewart minus fifth gear with LenDale White conditioning issues
4. Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State - I highly doubt anyone gets Mathews outside of the top 3 in rookie drafts, and it won’t surprise me if he goes #1 in some leagues. My reservations about Mathews have to do with straight-linish running game. I think he can flourish in a good offense, but he won’t create much on his own if he’s in a bad offense. He’s strong and fast, but I would peg his upside right around a player Cecil compared him to - Ryan Grant. Mathews is a very safe rookie pick, and he should be a solid RB2 for a long time, but I don’t see a real difference maker when I watch him.
NFL Comparison: Donald Brown
5. Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford - Gerhart will break down some of the rigid player associations by race within the RB position. He is not exceptionally fast, sudden, or elusive, but he possesses all of those qualities to some degree in a strong, big frame with a marauding attitude. Gerhart came up big when it mattered most and he seems to relish contact. He has some subtlety to his game and he will be an automatic option inside the five.
NFL Comparison: Jerome Bettis with heavier feet
6. Jahvid Best, RB, Cal - Best is right there with Spiller in terms of pure speed, quicks, and open-field running instincts, but he is built less compact than Spiller and seems to run with a style that puts his health at risk. Best is also not much for pass protection and he projects as a committee back at the next level in any scenario. He can still have strong fantasy value because Im sure his game will translate, but he won’t be a consistent week-to-week presence in the box scores, frustrating his owners.
NFL Comparison: Darren Sproles
7. Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois - Benn stands out to me in an otherwise uninspiring second tier of wide receivers. His natural adjustments to the ball and explosive leaping ability make him suited to be a terrific jumpball target, and his speed, fluid athleticism, strength, and RB mentality in the open field will make him a bear after the catch. There are durability questions and Benn is a bust risk for sure, but his ceiling is higher than any wideout not named Bryant.
NFL Comparison: Brandon Marshall
8. Montario Hardesty, RB, Tennessee - Hardesty looks like a perfect fit in a zone blocking scheme running game, and he has as much juice in his legs as any back in this draft when it comes to downhill running and efficiency. His initial burst is excellent, he has some moves, and he gets yards after contact. Hardesty doesn’t present as rare a package of physical attributes as the guys ahead of him on this list, but he could be more productive in the right situation.
NFL Comparison: Travis Henry
9. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma - Bradford is well-suited to run a pass-happy offense with his quick release, accuracy, good feet, and hair-trigger decision-making. His shoulder condition and overall durability keep him from being an uberelite QB prospect, along with a lack of top-end arm strength, but he’s more than good enough to be a a top 5 pick and franchise QB for an NFL team and eventual starter for your fantasy team.
NFL Comparison: Matt Schaub
10. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma - Gresham has to convince teams that his knee is ok, but as long as he does, he should be a first-round pick. He’s massive, but very fluid for player his size, and he’s got natural hands, ball skills, and run after catch instincts. His size and strength make him a load to bring down after the catch, and Gresham should also be a red zone weapon. He leads another great class of receiving TEs.
NFL Comparison: Kellen Winslow
11. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida - Hernandez is a bit of tough nut to crack because he’s somewhat in the mold of receiving only TEs from last year’s class who have disappointed so far like Jared Cook, Chase Coffman, and Travis Beckum. On the other hand, Hernandez is a better natural receiver than any of those guys. His hands are sure, his open field running and change of direction are outstanding for a TE, he can sky to get the high ball, and he’s tough, strong, and balanced when it comes time to take a hit. He could be an 80+ catch player in the right system, an afterthought in the wrong one. For now, we’ll err on the side of ranking him where he’d be if he lands somewhere like New England or New Orleans.
NFL Comparison: Chris Cooley
12. Andre Roberts, WR, The Citadel - This year’s top small school WR places high in the pre-draft 100, which may a reflection on the quality of the top IDP and second-tier offensive prospects as much as its an indication of Roberts talent. He has soft hands and impeccable ball tracking and body control when making a play on the ball in the air, but he shines even more after the catch. Roberts runs with great quickness and explosion with his short stride and compact build, and he stays low to the ground instinctively like a running back. Great field vision developed as a punt returner just finishes the package of this player who should become a very strong #2 receiver.
NFL Comparison: DeSean Jackson minus elite speed
13. Jordan Shipley, WR, Texas - Shipley is obviously one of my favorite players in this draft. He’ll be drafted as a role player, but his team will soon see that they have a future starter on their hands. In a word, his game is natural. He doesn’t have elite size, quicks, or explosion, but he gets more out of what he has than most NFL receivers get out of their gifts. His decent speed is made better by moves that can freeze would-be tacklers (those moves also do that in his routes), and an instinctive ability to quickly turn upfield and convert to run after catch mode. He also plays with a ton of desire and a knack for coming through in big moments. His balance, footwork, and body control finish off a smooth style of play that should translate well.
NFL Comparison: Austin Collie if he could do something after the catch
14. Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU - LaFell has fewer holes in his game than the second tier WRs above him on this list, but his ceiling is also much lower. He’s a rugged possession receiver who will be a tough customer after the catch, with surprising fluid athleticism and ability to set up DBs with advanced route running technique. LaFell sees the field well and he has dependable hands, a nice combination for a future third-down target.
NFL Comparison: Jerricho Cotchery minus some quicks and speed
15. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech - Ive already taken some flak for not having Thomas in my top 10, so I’m sure seeing names Roberts and Shipley ahead of Thomas will likely rankle his backers even more. I’ll admit that Thomas has great straight line speed for a large man, but otherwise, I’m not seeing much to hang my hat on. He can hang in the air, but he looks heavy and not at all explosive as a leaper, and Thomas doesn’t seem to snag the ball as much as he lets it land in his hands like an outfielder. He’s not that fluid or sudden, and I’m not sure that he’ll create much separation on short and intermediate routes that require those qualities. He is aggressive after the catch with a nice stiff arm, but right now Thomas looks like a one-dimensional player to me. He might be a first round pick because of the NFL’s love affair with size/speed receivers, but I won’t spend a first-round pick in rookie drafts on Thomas.
NFL Comparison: Bigger, but less agile Robert Meachem
16. Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame - Tate is another guy who seems to have some of the pieces of a starting WR’s game, but he is missing enough to drop him out of the top 12 on this list. He’s fast, but not a true burner, he’s good in the air, but not big enough to win jump ball battles, he can catch tough passes, but lets easy ones get to his body. Tate is very sudden on the move and the strongest part of his game is his ability to make hay after the catch, but he doesn’t look like a natural receiver to me, and I think he’ll struggle to be consistent enough to produce on a week-in, week-out basis.
NFL Comparison: slightly less athletic Devery Henderson
17. Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama - McClain may land in the draft’s top 20 overall picks, but he doesn’t have the range or playmaking ability of an elite IDP LB. He is a bit lumbering in the open field, and while he has good instincts, McClain is not a seek and destroy LB like Curtis Lofton, who teams had some similar speed concerns about when he was drafted two years ago. McClain will fit well inside in a 3-4, where his lack of pursuit speed can be masked and he can play downhill, but his upside in IDP leagues is capped enough to make him a less attractive option than the second tier WRs.
NFL Comparison: Andra Davis with top notch instincts and intangibles
18. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona - It’s hard to project Gronkowski too high on this list because back injuries that require surgery and sink a season are scary, but Gronk will be a good one and reward the NFL team and fantasy owners that take a chance on him as long as the back is sound. He’s not an elite athlete, but he has sticky hands and a mean streak as a blocker and runner after the catch. He also runs good routes and understands how to find soft spots in a zone. Along with Gresham and Hernandez, Gronkowski has a chance to become a premier fantasy tight end.
NFL Comparison: Zach Miller
19. Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss - Five or ten years ago, McCluster would have been a lot lower on this list, but the NFL has evolved to embrace a player of his talents. McCluster will be a lethal wildcat QB, a cat-quick slot receiver, and a running back that is good for 5-10 change of pace touches in space a game. He has the best phone-booth quicks of any player in this class and McCluster just knows what to do when the ball is in his hands. He is small, but he runs with courage, and McCluster should become a fan favorite, if not fantasy favorite at the next level.
NFL Comparison: sleeker, smaller Josh Cribbs
20. Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati - Gilyard is going to be an excellent slot receiver, with good speed and moves after the catch and good enough hands and toughness to work the middle of the field, but I don’t see the game in the air, physical presence against press coverage, or deep speed that Gilyard would need to be a starting WR. He’ll be an excellent pick in return yardage leagues, and he’s a dynamic enough talent to gamble on in the late 2nd of rookie drafts, but his upside is limited.
NFL Comparison: Patrick Crayton with more juice in his legs
21. Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri - Weatherspoon could easily be your #1 rookie draft LB after the picks are announced later this week. He’s got the range and skills to stay on the field for all three downs, and he is a better fit as a 4-3 MLB than Rolando McClain (*cough* Giants *cough*), although his most likely destination seems to be playing outside in Atlanta’s 4-3 defense.
NFL Comparison: Jon Beason
22. Taylor Price, WR, Ohio - Price is very advanced for having played in a very weak passing offense at Ohio. His speed, quicks, and toughness make him a good wildcat QB in addition to a strong WR prospect. Price understands how to use his physical gifts to create separation and get extra yards in the open field, and he shouldn’t last past the third round of the draft.
NFL Comparison: Andre Caldwell
23. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, SMU - Sanders plays very fast and explosive, but always under control. He can break down a defender in the open field, and he sacrifices his body in the air to make the play. He has a slight build and might get pushed around at the next level, but the natural playmaking instincts should bubble to the surface again as he physically matures.
NFL Comparison: Steve Breaston
24. Carlton Mitchell, WR, South Florida - No doubt about it, Mitchell is starting NFL quality when it comes to physical attributes. He’s long, strong, fast, and explosive. He’ll need a few years to round out his game, but we were saying the same thing about Mike Wallace last year and he is poised to start for the Steelers.
NFL Comparison: Jacoby Jones
25. Donald Butler, LB, Washington - You have to love players who come up biggest when the most is on the line, and Butler did, leading the Huskies to an upset of USC by intercepting a pass, forcing a fumble and racking up 12 tackles. Butler definitely has the coverage skills to stay on the field for all three downs, although some teams may view him as an OLB prospect because he’s not big enough to defeat blocks from pulling guards.
NFL Comparison: Jerod Mayo
26. Anthony Dixon, RB, Miss St - Dixon is going to have a good NFL career because he plays all out and he offers enough versatility to play an RB/FB tweener role. Dixon will provide his NFL team with great depth at RB and a talent that can be used in various ways by a creative offensive coordinator. He won’t ever enter the season atop the depth chart, but he could be very productive when the lead back ahead of him gets dinged, and he could even force his way into a committee.
NFL Comparison: Jason Snelling
27. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame - Count me among the group that is not sold on Clausen as a franchise QB. He’s lacking a signature win and has no plus tools or abilities to give him a trump card against NFL defenses. I think he is more a product of surrounding talent and system than a future quality NFL QB, but he’ll still get the chance to start and fail repeatedly like most first-round QBs, and that’s worth something in dynasty leagues.
NFL Comparison: Matt Cassel
28. Dennis Pitta, TE, BYU - Pitta catches everything and he is the aggressor while running routes against linebackers. His speed is adequate to good at best, but he has moves and instincts after the catch even though he is not a threat to break a big play. Pitta is the kind of target that will earn his QBs trust with consistency.
NFL Comparison: Owen Daniels
29. Brandon Graham, OLB/DE, Michigan - Graham’s eventual fantasy value may hinge on whether he goes to a 3-4 or a 4-3 defense, but either way, he’ll be a player. He doesn’t have ideal length for a edge rusher, but like Elvis Dumervil, Dwight Freeney, and Lamarr Woodley, Graham uses his lack of basketball height to get superior leverage against taller tackles. His motor never stops, so Graham should be around the ball a lot for a player who lines up at or near the line of scrimmage.
NFL Comparison: Lamarr Woodley
30. Eric Berry, S, Tennessee - Berry is one of the four or five best safeties to come out of the college ranks in the last ten years. Whether that will translate to fantasy numbers is yet to be seen, as recent franchise safeties like LaRon Landry and Sean Taylor have been marooned away from the action as do-everything centerfielders. Still, you’re getting a player with almost zero bust risk, a complete game, and big play instincts when you take Berry.
NFL Comparison: Ed Reed
31. Damian Williams, WR, USC - Williams will go a lot higher in most rookie drafts, but I see a player with limited upside because he lacks outstanding size, speed, quicks, or explosiveness. He is adequate to good in all areas of a wide receiver’s game, but he strikes me as a guy who won’t be more than a solid #3 WR at the next level.
NFL Comparison: Davone Bess
32. Sean Lee, LB, Penn State - Lee is a very smart, tough linebacker who will never be a liability, but he might lack the speed and strength to be the kind of LB that blows plays up or forces turnovers that few LBs could create. Situation is everything - he could be an IDP stud if his path is clear to an ILB spot, like former teammate Paul Posluszny, but he could be buried on a team with a strong MLB, like former teammate Dan Connor.
NFL Comparison: Tedy Bruschi
33. Eric Decker, WR, Minnesota - Decker is about as sure-handed, tough, and polished as they come, but he has little physical upside in terms of quickness, speed, or explosiveness. He could be very productive in the right offense and role, but he could also be passed over by more gifted wideouts on the depth chart over time.
NFL Comparison: Kevin Walter
34. Daryl Washington, LB, TCU - Washington has the athleticism and range to be an everydown tackle machine, but he is not an explosive hitter or very physical LB. He still has a ways to go in terms of instincts and technique, but he could be an outstanding cornerstone of a defense if he grows as much in his first few NFL seasons as he did in his first season as a regular starter at TCU.
NFL Comparison: Will Witherspoon
35. Joe Webb, WR, UAB - Webb’s physical attributes are almost prototypical for the position (6’3” 220, 4.44 40, strong, huge hands, long arms, quick), but he was a QB last year for UAB, and he will need to be built from the ground up as a WR. His ceiling is as high as any WR in this class not named Bryant, and he has the work ethic and intangibles to make the switch, so he’s a risk worth taking in the third round of your rookie drafts.
NFL Comparison: Legedu Naanee
36. Navorro Bowman, LB, Penn State - Bowman is an aggressive downhill LB who makes a ton of plays on the offense’s side of the line of scrimmage. He plays all-out, angry and physical, just the way you expect a Linebacker U LB to play. He’s got some off-the-field issues, he might have come out a year early, and he is undersized, but Bowman’s intensity and instincts should get him into the starting lineup sooner than later.
NFL Comparison: Thomas Davis
37. Mike Williams, WR, Syracuse - None of us should be shocked if Williams is one of best three WRs in this class in five years, nor should it surprise us if Williams is one of the first three WRs to get cut by his team in rookie minicamp. His long frame, strength, agility, and good enough speed add up to a starting quality NFL WR, if not a #1 in the making, but his work ethic and on-again, off-again status on the Orange roster during his career are very worrisome. If Williams does make it, he’ll be a red zone monster with his natural ball skills and “my ball” mentality.
NFL Comparison: Chris Henry
38. Derrick Morgan, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech - Like Graham, Morgan would become a very valuable IDP if he goes to a 4-3 defense where he would join the dwindling ranks of 4-3 ends who can rush the passer and play the run with equal aplomb. Morgan is durable, smart, and young (just turned 21), so we could just be seeing the tip of his upside iceberg.
NFL Comparison: Tamba Hali
39. Blair White, WR, Michigan State - White won’t leave any corners in the dust, and he’s not going to make many highlight plays, but he just gets the job done as a receiver and blocker, and he’s and tough and cagey after the catch. The former walk-on is about as reliable as any receiver in this class when it comes to making the grab and he should settle in as excellent depth with a chance to excel in a good passing offense.
NFL Comparison: Jordy Nelson
40. Chris McGaha, WR, Arizona State - McGaha’s hands, body control, routes, effort, and overall football savvy are NFL starting quality, but he lacks the speed or quicks to create consistent separation at the next level. Still, part of me thinks that he’ll work his way up the depth chart with his consistent execution and ability to make the most out of what he has by setting up defensive backs over the course of a game.
NFL Comparison: Greg Camarillo
41. Joe McKnight, RB, USC - McKnight hasn’t been the gamebreaker Trojan fans envisioned when he showed up as part of a monumental RB class, but he did reinvent himself as a tough inside runner in 2009 when USC’s inexperience at QB demanded a more robust running game. McKnight is versatile and he will be at least good depth, if not a minor RBBC member in the pros, but not more.
NFL Comparison: Mewelde Moore
42. Ben Tate, RB, Auburn - Tate has been a hot commodity since the combine because of his measureables, but I don’t see the creativity and crisp cuts and decisions in his running style for his long speed to come into play. He’ll be fine NFL, but Tate won’t play up to his size/speed potential.
NFL Comparison: Glen Coffee
43. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas - McCoy’s gamesmanship, athleticism, toughness, and winning ways will draw a team into taking him in the second round, but I am worried about McCoy playing within his abilities in the NFL. He already tended to bite off more than he could chew with his limited arm strength at Texas, in the pros, he’ll have to be much more disciplined. In the right system, he could flourish, but he could also be just another A.J. Feeley.
NFL Comparison: Jeff Garcia
44. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida - I’m not convinced that we’ll see Tebow on the field before 2012, and I don’t see the kind of QB who will be a fantasy force (at least in his current form), but Tebow should be re-engineered to have a more compact delivery and quick-twitch thinking to attack defenses. The team that takes him will be a Tebow believer, so he’s very likely to get the keys to a franchise before his rookie contract is up.
NFL Comparison: Steve McNair
45. Jeremy Williams, WR, Tulane - Williams is a technician in his routes with great hands and run after catch instincts. He lacks the size, speed, or raw athleticism to get a team excited about his prospects as a playmaker, but he could be very productive in a west coast offense.
NFL Comparison: Earl Bennett
46. Rennie Curran, LB, Georgia - Every time I watched the Bulldogs I came away impressed with this seek-and-destroy LB who is always around the ball. 5’10” 230 LBs are considered too small to make it in the NFL, and the cover 2 scheme that favored speed over size is fading, but I wouldn’t bet against Curran cracking starting the lineup down the line.
NFL Comparison: Quincy Black
47. Riley Cooper, WR, Florida - Cooper is still a work in progress, but he’s massive, athletic, and physical, and he should be a good red zone threat even if he doesn’t develop the consistency to start in the NFL.
NFL Comparison: Michael Jenkins
48. Dezmon Briscoe, WR, Kansas - Briscoe’s lanky frame and ball skills will make him an excellent jumpball threat downfield, but the quickness and speed that Briscoe needs to become a more well-rounded receiver just aren’t there, so his upside his limited.
NFL Comparison: Malcom Floyd
49. David Gettis, WR, Baylor - Gettis’s size/speed combo of 6’3” 215 and a 40 time in low 4.4’s will make a team devote a few years to developing his game. Gettis needs to become a natural hands catcher and polish his route running, but if it all clicks, his rare physical ability could make him a starting NFL WR.
NFL Comparison: Ben Obomanu
50. Ed Dickson, TE, Oregon - Dickson has WR-like agility and hands, with TE size and strength. He will still likely be a one-dimensional pass catching threat in the NFL, and he’ll need to land in the right offense to be relevant for fantasy.
NFL Comparison: Travis Beckum
51. Taylor Mays, S, USC - Mays lack of big plays in college is troubling, but he’s a hitter and he has the speed to still put up good tackle numbers even if he is stationed deep to take advantage of his speed.
52. Dorin Dickerson, TE, Pitt - Dickerson’s size/speed combo and red zone prowess make him an intriguing fantasy commodity, but what makes him intriguing to NFL teams - his versatility - could be the undoing of his fantasy future. If he ends up at fullback, it will time to cut bait early, but an inventive offensive coordinator could use Dickerson to create mismatches all over the field.
53. Scott Long, WR, Louisville - If Long can stay healthy, he definitely has the physical tools to hang. He’s a big WR with good hands and physicality
54. Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma - McCoy has a chance to be the premier fantasy DT if he lands in Tampa’s Cover 2. He’s a better gap shooter and pass rusher than Suh and should be around the ball more.
55. Dekoda Watson, LB, Florida State - Watson comes from a program that just churns out speedy, athletic LBs who can make plays all over the field. There are some durability questions, and his tackle totals were low for an LB with his range.
56. Lonyae Miller, RB, Fresno State - Miller never outshone Ryan Mathews, but he is a rugged one-cut-and-go back who should stick in the league and could be productive in a zone blocking scheme running game.
57. Keiland Williams, RB, LSU - Williams had a case of fumblitis that kept him behind the more workmanlike Charles Scott, but Williams size/speed combination is much better suited for NFL play.
58. Armanti Edwards, WR, Appalachian State - No future at QB, but hypercompetitve, quick, tough, fearless should translate at WR, not to mention speed in the 4.4s.
59. Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU - Hughes is a lot like 2009 first-round pick Larry English, tough and relentless, which gets results, but the best fantasy 3-4 OLBs usually have better physical gifts to go with the intangibles.
60. Chad Jones, S, LSU - Jones is a natural playmaker with a great presence in run defense. With more honing of his instincts and a more polished technique, he should become a starter in his second or third year.
61. Eric Norwood, OLB, South Carolina - Norwood is a big LB who should be a good downhill defender vs. the run and pass rusher, but he will be a liability in coverage and might have trouble staying on the field because of it.
62. Jimmy Graham, TE, Miami-FL - The basketball player turned tight end that every draft has to have at least one of, Graham has the requisite size and athleticism to make it as an NFL passcatcher at the position, and he has flashed enough natural football skills to be worth a stash spot on your taxi squad.
63. Deji Karim, RB, Southern Illinois - Karim is a small school back with big game. He’s got good speed and toughness in an NFL-ready compact build.
64. John Skelton, QB, Fordham - Very similar to Joe Flacco tools-wise (size and arm strength), needs a lot of polish, but that was also the book on Flacco when he came out.
65. Jarrett Brown, QB, West Virginia - Spent a lot of his career in the shadow of Pat White, but actually better suited to play QB in the pros than White. Brown’s size, athleticism, and arm strength combo is very reminiscent of Tarvaris Jackson.
66. Kyle Williams, WR, Arizona State - More physically gifted than teammate McGaha, Williams projects as an excellent slot receiver/return man.
67. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska - Suh will see a lot of double teams and he will do a lot to free up others to make plays, but his career at Nebraska indicates that he’ll still make enough plays to be very relevant in DT-required IDP leagues.
68. Pat Angerer, ILB, Iowa - What Angerer lacks in size, he makes up for in energy and instincts. He can be an everydown LB, but he’ll have to get better at shedding blocks - he might only in a 3-4 or behind a stud NT.
69. Nate Allen, S, South Florida - Allen’s tools aren’t quite as flashy as Earl Thomas or Taylor Mays, but he probably has better game when it comes to being able to cover and support against the run with equal effectiveness.
70. Morgan Burnett, S, Georgia Tech - Put up eye-popping numbers in 2008, but came back to earth last year. Burnett is around the ball a lot vs. the run and has a WR-like “my ball” mentality against the pass.
71. Jamar Chaney, ILB, Mississippi State - Chaney has the range to be a three-down linebacker, but he’s small and would probably would only work in a cover 2.
72. Sergio Kindle, OLB/DE, Texas - Kindle will likely go in the first round of the NFL draft because of his sick closing speed and athleticism, but he’s lacking the instincts, consistency, and character to be worth more than a late-round flyer in sack-heavy leagues.
73. Ricky Sapp, OLB, Clemson - Sapp is a gifted pass rusher and he already has a lot of experience getting after the QB from a two-point stance. The rest of his game will have to come around to make him relevant for fantasy, but the sackmaster potential is there.
74. Chris Brown, RB, Oklahoma - Brown projects as a quality third-down/backup RB, as long as his pass blocking comes around.
75. Seyi Ajirotutu, WR, Fresno State - Ajirotutu is very athletic for a long-framed receiver, but he’ll need to work on his game because he got by on his gifts at Fresno State.
76. Tony Moeaki, TE, Iowa - Moeaki is a solid two-way TE with a knack for the circus catch, but numerous past injuries will likely keep him from having a big impact in the pros, still could be another Bo Scaife.
77. Jonathan Crompton, QB, Tennessee - Crompton has all of the tools, including a nice quick release where the ball comes out hot, but he was an inconsistent QB who didn’t show signs of promise until his senior season.
78. Philip Dillard, ILB, Nebraska - He has had the luxury of Ndamukong Suh wreaking havoc in front of him, but Dillard’s all-around game and top-notch effort could eventually get him into a starting lineup.
79. Koa Misi, DE/OLB, Utah - Misi has all the physical attributes and intangibles needed to make the transition from DE to 3-4 OLB in the pros. His motor never quits and he should be productive enough as a tackler to offset the lack of a sick first step that would enable him to get double-digit sacks.
80. Shawnbrey McNeal, RB, SMU - The former Miami-FL back who transferred to take care of his family is more of a nimble scatback with good speed than a between-the-tackler grinder, but he could eventually grow into an RBBC back if he has a power partner.
81. James Starks, RB, Buffalo - Starks will be an excellent receiver and change of pace back, but he’s not elusive or powerful enough to become a primary back.
82. Jacoby Ford, WR, Clemson - Speed, speed, and more speed, but needs to learn the route tree and can’t make defenders miss in the open field.
83. Marcus Easley, WR, Connecticut - Easley is 6’3” 215 with 4.4 speed and a very raw game. He’s a practice squad type player, but one with great potential if he learns the finer points of playing WR.
84. Shay Hodge, WR, Ole Miss - Hodge was very productive in the SEC, and while he doesn’t have elite tools, his size and quickness are a good foundation for an NFL future if he develops more toughness and consistency.
85. Joique Bell, RB, Wayne State - Bell is a good all-around back with patience and vision, but questions about whether his burst and skillset will translate beyond the small school ranks are keeping him low on draft boards.
86. Dan Lefevour, QB, Central Michigan - Lefevour isn’t that different from Colt McCoy, just a little bigger with a little more arm strength, and a lot fewer college wins. He’s athletic and competitive and should be at worst a solid backup in the McCown mold.
87. Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati - Pike is surprisingly athletic with good arm strength and production, but he is a system QB with major durability issues, so he’s the kind of project QB who could clog your taxi squad for a while but never climb the depth chart.
88. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Oregon - Blount is much more well-known than he should be. He’s a huge back, but he doesn’t run with a great burst, power, or pad level. He still has potential, but not as much as you’ve been lead to believe.
89. Stafon Johnson, RB, USC - Johnson was on track to be mid-round pick with his good burst/size combo before a weightlifting accident crushed his larynx. Talent to stick on a roster is there if he comes all the way back.
90. Charles Scott, RB, LSU - You have to give any RB that starts at such a big-time program a shot in the NFL, but Scott looks like a plodder to me, only good for some dirty work between the tackles.
91. Garrett Graham, TE, Wisconsin - Graham is an accomplished pass catcher and very safe NFL pick, but he is not an inline TE, and he doesn’t offer seam-ripping speed or highlight film athleticism, so he’ll likely be a role player in the pros.
92. Reshad Jones, S, Georgia - Jones is a headhunter and a ballhawk, but he needs to play with more discipline to reach his potential.
93. Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida - Spikes timed-with-a-sundial 40 time caused him to plummet down draft boards, but his game is legit and he could be the steal of IDP rookie drafts.
94. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida - As the 3-4 defense continues to sweep the league, true 4-3 ends like Pierre-Paul gain more value. He has elite upside, but he has played so little college football that you know you’ll need to stash him for a while to get a return on your pick.
95. Anthony McCoy, TE, USC - McCoy is the rare blocking TE with good hands and ball skills. He won’t be a playmaker, but it’s not a stretch to see him eventually putting up a Bubba Franks kind of stat-line.
96. LaMarcus Coker, RB, Hampton - Coker was once a big-time prospect at Tennessee. He still has NFL-quality tools, but character issues could have him out of league before the end of his first camp.
97. Danario Alexander, WR, Missouri - Alexander is big and good after the catch, but he has a long way to go to master his craft, and he might have suffered one too many knee injuries to get drafted this weekend.
98. Fendi Onobun, TE, Houston - Another basketball player turned TE, even rawer than Jimmy Graham, but maybe more physically talented.
99. Jameson Konz, TE, Kent State - Exceptional athlete, but still looking for a position and not very natural when it comes to running routes and catching the ball.
100. Jevan Snead, QB, Ole Miss - Snead came out a year too early, but if you look at his 2008 film, particularly the Cotton Bowl win over Texas Tech, there’s something there.
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