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Complete QB fantasy projections for 2012 (1 Viewer)

Bracie Smathers

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
From Bleacher Report.

These projections don't take into account any projected injuries or struggles. They seem to shy away from any unusually high or low projections so guys who will likely do very well have some watered down projections and those who might struggle or give way to competition or possibly share some starting time get the benefit of doubt and these projections apparently are generous wiping out any sort of low ceiling.

So take this with a grain of salt and take them as a canvass to paint other projections on so share yours if you have something to add.

They clump together the QBs by divison to make it easy to find your guys.

Only sharing the raw numbers, go to the link for the full reasoning:

My link

AFC East

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills: 3,900, 23 TDs, 20 INTs, Rating 80.0

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins: 3,000 yards, 20 TDs, 18 INTs, 80.0 Rating

Tom Brady, New England Patriots: 4,900 yards, 45 TDs, 9 INTs, 110.0 Rating

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets: 3,300 yards, 23 TDs, 17 INTs, 78.0 Rating

AFC North

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens: 3,300 yards, 23 TDs, 17 INTs, 78.0 Rating

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals: 3,750 yards, 26 TDs, 16 INTs, 89.0 Rating

Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns: 3,400 yards, 22 TDs, 11 INTs, 78.0 Rating

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: 4,650 yards, 32 TDs, 17 INTs, 97.0 Rating

AFC South

Matt Schaub, Houston,Texans: 3,800 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 96.0 Rating

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: 3,200 yards, 22 TDs, 18 INTs, 88.0 Rating

Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars: 3,000 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs, 78.0 Rating

Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee Titans: 3,550 yards, 21 TDs, 15 INTs, 81.0 Rating

AFC West

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos: 4,000 yards, 28 TDs, 16 INTs, 95.0 Rating

Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs: 3,200 yards, 26 TDs, 13 INTs, 85.0 Rating

Carson Palmer, Oakland Raiders: 4,500 yards, 31 TDs, 21 INTs, 90.0

Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers: 4,550 yards, 29 TDs, 14 INTs, 96.0 Rating

NFC East

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: 4,450 yards, 34 TDs, 11 INTs, 98.0 Rating

Eli Manning, New York Giants: 4,750, 31 TDs, 14 INTs, 93.0 Rating

Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles: 3,500 yards, 22 TDs, 14 INTs, 90.0 Rating, 600 rushing yards, 5 TDs

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: 3,400 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs, 86.0 Rating, 600 rushing

NFC North

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears: 3,400 yards, 26 TDs, 17 INTs, 87.0 Rating

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: 5,100 yards, 43 TDs, 14 INTs, 98.0 Rating

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: 4,800 yards, 42 TDs, 8 INTs, 117.0 Rating

Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings: 3,150 yards, 20 TDs, 15 INTs, 74.0 Rating

NFC South

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: 4,250 yards, 33 TDs, 14 INTs, 94.0 Rating

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: 3,700 passing yards, 25 TDs, 20 INTs, 83.0 Rating, 900 rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: 5,200 yards, 42 TDs, 17 INTs, 105.0 Rating

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3,900 yards, 30 TDs, 16 INTs, 96.0 Rating

NFC West

Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals: 3,850 yards, 27 TDs, 20 INTs, 83.0 Rating

Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams: 3,500 yards, 21 TDs, 15 INTs, 80.0 Rating

Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers: 3,300 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs, 86.0 Rating

Matt Flynn, Seattle Seahawks: 3,400 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs, 87.0 Rating

Once again, go to the link for their full reasoning behind these projections and add yours since I'm sure many will dispute anything they don't agree with but feel free to punch in your projections with explanations. :popcorn:

 
Dead@ every starting qb having 20 td's thrown. I don't think this has ever happened in the history of football.

ETA: EVERY qb having a better td/int ratio. :lmao:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'obxlegends said:
Dead@ every starting qb having 20 td's thrown. I don't think this has ever happened in the history of football.ETA: EVERY qb having a better td/int ratio. :lmao:
Click to expand...
He does say "These projections don't take into account any projected injuries or struggles"So I guess these are the ceilings.
 
'ExaltedOne said:
He does say "These projections don't take into account any projected injuries or struggles"So I guess these are the ceilings.
Click to expand...
WHAT? So how can they be projections that don't take into account struggles?If Flacco puts up those numbers, career low in yards and QB% then that's struggling.
 
Josh Freeman is going to throw for 3900 yards, 30 TDs, 16 ints and a 96 passer rating?

shh..come here..listen, keep this to yourself..there's this bridge in Brooklyn, and it's for sale, whats that? yeah I know, crazy right? :loco: ..now, I can get you a piece for below wholesale.............................

:P

all kidding aside, Josh Freeman isn't coming close to 3900 yards, and wont toss 30 tds,nor will he approach a 96 passer rating for the season... not this year, probably not ever..yes, his 2010 season is/was a fluke..he's simply not that good..

there is not one single QB listed below the Mason-Dixon line of 3,000 passing yards..even Gabbert is going to throw for 3,000 yards??!!

oof..

and,we don't even know that Tennehill is going to start and/or even play for Miami this year, he looks like 'hold the clipboard' material to me..

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'Bracie Smathers said:
From Bleacher Report.

Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns: 3,400 yards, 22 TDs, 11 INTs, 78.0 Rating

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: 3,200 yards, 22 TDs, 18 INTs, 88.0 Rating

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: 3,400 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs, 86.0 Rating, 600 rushing
Click to expand...
 
45 tds for brady? 13 rushing tds for cam? Don't see those numbers happening. I think all your numbers are a little inflated.

 
Nothing stood out to me more than this;

Carson Palmer, Oakland Raiders: 4,500 yards, 31 TDs, 21 INTs, 90.0

Really? Carson Palmer as a mid-range QB1?

 
'Deamon said:
45 tds for brady? 13 rushing tds for cam? Don't see those numbers happening. I think all your numbers are a little inflated.
Click to expand...
I also question whether Cam can get 13 rushing TD this year . . . but I can see Brady throwing 45 TDs (although far from a given). The Pats upgraded their receiving corps, their defense is still suspect, the running game is now comprised of mostly unproven guys, and the offensive line is one of the better pass protecting units in the league. And on paper, New England faces a pretty soft schedule.
 
'David Yudkin said:
'Deamon said:
45 tds for brady? 13 rushing tds for cam? Don't see those numbers happening. I think all your numbers are a little inflated.
Click to expand...
I also question whether Cam can get 13 rushing TD this year . . . but I can see Brady throwing 45 TDs (although far from a given). The Pats upgraded their receiving corps, their defense is still suspect, the running game is now comprised of mostly unproven guys, and the offensive line is one of the better pass protecting units in the league. And on paper, New England faces a pretty soft schedule.
Click to expand...
Not saying he can't do it, but if he gets 45, that would be the 5th best td throwing season by any qb in nfl history. I agree he can do it, but it takes a lot to have a season like that.
 
'Deamon said:
'David Yudkin said:
'Deamon said:
45 tds for brady? 13 rushing tds for cam? Don't see those numbers happening. I think all your numbers are a little inflated.
Click to expand...
I also question whether Cam can get 13 rushing TD this year . . . but I can see Brady throwing 45 TDs (although far from a given). The Pats upgraded their receiving corps, their defense is still suspect, the running game is now comprised of mostly unproven guys, and the offensive line is one of the better pass protecting units in the league. And on paper, New England faces a pretty soft schedule.
Click to expand...
Not saying he can't do it, but if he gets 45, that would be the 5th best td throwing season by any qb in nfl history. I agree he can do it, but it takes a lot to have a season like that.
Click to expand...
IIRC, Brady had 75 TDs over the past 2 seasons . . . and 78 TD in his last 2 full seasons before that. 45 is a big number, no doubt. I think it's a high number, but I can see him making a run at it. Brees and Rodgers hit that bar last year and Stafford was not that far behind.
 
BR is the only full NFL projections I've seen so far.

If you don't agree then lets see your projections

Takes guts to share projections.

I look at these projections as one data point. We see the guy who made them likes the usual suspects for unusually high production but a few others slip in as well like Josh Freeman. I like Freeman for a top ten to fifteen ranking by the end of the season because I would imagine a couple of QBs ranked higher won't make it to the end of the season or one or two may struggle for whatever reason so I think he will be a top ten-fifteen fantasy QB by the end of the year even with pedestrian stats because average stats tend to grade out in the ten to fifteen range. Freeman is durable so I think he's safe for solid pedestrian numbers that would earn a top ten-fifteen ranking by the end of the year.

I do not agree with these projections but I thought someone would find them useful or if they disagreed they would bother to share some of their own or chime in with some useful commentary.

 
For stats doubters etc. Big deal it makes you think. Not saying right or wrong.

Brady 45tds? I don't know personally. I know they have a buttload of WRs and great TEs. He has thrown for 50tds.

Palmer mid QB1. It's very possible. Do I think so? I'm just a dummy. But I like Palmer to have an improved year with some talent around him. I think DHB has improved Dmoore, JFord, Criner oh and a pretty strong Run Game. I think they'll be decent. Get him cheap and sell high before he gets too old.

Is he better than RIVERSs? He could be if Phillip has another down year. Maybe they're not sold on Meachem as #1 WR. or Gates being Healthy.

Freeman: He's a decent QB. They went and got him some weapons and will focus on the run so when they do throw he could do well. He can take care of the ball. Except for years that end in 2011.

CAM Newton I think it's irresponsible to project 13 rush TDs for a guy. Yes it's lower than 14. Yes he's a freak and amazing. That's a lot of TD to project for anyone. I'd rather water it down and with a likelihood that he is very capable of exceeding the production.

CUTLER I like to have a pretty good year too. I guess maybe they're thinking that his OLINE protection isn't great and maybe Alshon Jeffery isn't the guy they think he is and Hester can't learn the route tree or something. WHAT this makes me think of is the SLEEPER/UPSIDE guy that everyone is clamoring for in the offseason and it turns out people are just wrong. Someone new/different emerges or no one emerges at all.

 
'obxlegends said:
Dead@ every starting qb having 20 td's thrown. I don't think this has ever happened in the history of football.ETA: EVERY qb having a better td/int ratio. :lmao:
Click to expand...
And somehow Weeden having more yards and fewer INTs than Luck earns him a 10-point lower passing rating.
 
'Deamon said:
Dodds' new projections seem a lot more reasonable.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2012/currentproj-qb.php
Click to expand...
I am not one to complain about staff projections - but it seems odd to me that everyone has Cutler pencilled in south of 3700 yards and 21 TDs (to be fair 2 staffers do have him with 23 TDs) - which is what his stats prorated to 16 games would have been last season...without Marhsall and Jeffrey. I'm thinking Cutler is starting to become quite the value play.
 
'DoubleG said:
'Deamon said:
Dodds' new projections seem a lot more reasonable.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2012/currentproj-qb.php
Click to expand...
I am not one to complain about staff projections - but it seems odd to me that everyone has Cutler pencilled in south of 3700 yards and 21 TDs (to be fair 2 staffers do have him with 23 TDs) - which is what his stats prorated to 16 games would have been last season...without Marhsall and Jeffrey. I'm thinking Cutler is starting to become quite the value play.
Click to expand...
I agree Cutler could be a value play. There's always risk of injuries, int's weighing him down, etc. Forte also had a great year receiving the ball (500 yards in 12 games), you've got to think with the hold out, the additional receivers, and just difficulty to produce those numbers year after year, that those will go down too, but yes, likely be picked up by Marshall, etc. I see a good season for Marshall, but 3.800 and 22 tds seems just about right. You say he was ON PACE for 3700 last year, but it gets damn cold in chicago in Nov/Dec, I would suspect his numbers during those months would have dropped slightly.
 
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