Confused about the Projections (1 Viewer)

[bostonfred]

antibumping this to fix the time zone issue

 

[Scarpati]

Week 5 report

Here are the results so far:

QB

Wk Player Proj Act Ratio Hit 300-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----1 K. Warner 254 301 119% YES2 P. Manning 284 400 141% YES3 D. McNabb 280 296 106% NO4 D. McNabb 299 288 96% NO5 D. McNabb 256 354 138% YES-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----Tot 1373 1639 119% 3/5RB

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   L. Johnson	 98	68	69%   NO2   S. Alexander   99	89	90%   NO3   S. Jackson	 90	62	69%   NO4   L. Johnson	115   101	88%   YES5   L. Johnson	111	36	32%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			   513   356	69%   1/5

WR

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   R. Moss		82	47	57%   NO2   M. Harrison	97   127   131%   YES3   M. Harrison	91	94   103%   NO4   T. Holt	   105   102	97%   YES5   T. Holt		88	40	45%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			   463   410	89%   2/5

Overall average

Wk  Ratio  Hit--  -----   ---1	 82%   1/32	121%   2/33	 93%   0/34	 94%   2/35	 72%   1/3--  -----   ---Tot   92%   6/15

This week McNabb comes through on the third try. Oddly enough, the FBG.com projection for McNabb was lower this week than on the two previous weeks, but this week against the Cowboys he turns in a much higher total than last week against the lowly Packers.Larry Johnson fell ridiculously short of 100 yards rushing with a mere 36 yards (he did much better on the receiving end, but that's not what we're measuring here.) I am fortunate enough to have both LJ and LT2 on a "keep 8" team, and the two of them combined didn't make it to 100 yards this week.

Torry Holt had a decent week as well, but it was the TD that generated most of his value. The 40 yards receiving wasn't horrible, but it certainly was less than we were expecting him to generate.

After five weeks, the FBG projections have proven a little overstated (exactly the reverse of what the original post in this thread suggested,) but even five weeks doesn't provide much statistical evidence.

We'll keep going on into Week 6 with a new set of picks from Dentist. If he decides not to send in picks, we'll use the final set of projections from FBG.com and take the #1 player on each of the three lists: QB, RB, WR.

 

[Scarpati]

Why is this competition 100 yards receiving and 100 yards rushing? Everyone gets points for combined yards.I refuse to continue picking until the rules are altered to how I want them to be.

Your original question was about why the FBG projections didn't show any QBs with 300 passing, any RBs with 100 rushing, or any WRs with 100 receiving. The FBG projections are split between passing, rushing and receiving, so if we focus on any one projected number, we have to compare it to what it's trying to project.As an example, the Week 1 projections you originally asked about had Larry Johnson with 98 yards rushing and 24 yards receiving, for a total of 122 yards. They did project him over 100 in total yards, but that was a combination of the two.Maybe the answer to your original question is that you're thinking internally about total yards, while looking at FBG numbers that are for rushing only.

 

[nomarriage.com]

McNabb

Tatum Bell

TJ whooseyourmama

I now hate this contest.

 

[Scarpati]

Week 6 report

Here are the results so far:

QB

Wk Player Proj Act Ratio Hit 300-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----1 K. Warner 254 301 119% YES2 P. Manning 284 400 141% YES3 D. McNabb 280 296 106% NO4 D. McNabb 299 288 96% NO5 D. McNabb 256 354 138% YES6 D. McNabb 269 247 92% NO-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----Tot 1642 1886 115% 3/6RB

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   L. Johnson	 98	68	69%   NO2   S. Alexander   99	89	90%   NO3   S. Jackson	 90	62	69%   NO4   L. Johnson	115   101	88%   YES5   L. Johnson	111	36	32%   NO6   C. Portis	 116	58	50%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			   629   414	66%   1/6

WR

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   R. Moss		82	47	57%   NO2   M. Harrison	97   127   131%   YES3   M. Harrison	91	94   103%   NO4   T. Holt	   105   102	97%   YES5   T. Holt		88	40	45%   NO6   T. Holt		88   154   175%   YES--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			   551   564   102%   3/6

Overall average

Wk  Ratio  Hit--  -----   ---1	 82%   1/32	121%   2/33	 93%   0/34	 94%   2/35	 72%   1/36	106%   1/3--  -----   ---Tot   94%   7/18

Dentist is nowhere to be seen this week. I guess he learned the answer to his question and doesn't need to participate. This means we go with the top players on the FBG list (could be the McNabb and Holt show for most of the remaining weeks...)Donovan is now 1/4 in throwing for 300 yards on weeks in which we've picked him in this thread, though this is the first week in which he's missed it by more than 20. The RBs have been absolutely snake-bitten, gaining less than two-thirds of the yards predicted by FBG and breaking 100 only once. Torry Holt had a banner day this week, gaining 154 yards and topping 100 for the second time in this contest.

Overall, FBG is doing a pretty good job. There have been RBs over 100 yards; they're just not the ones we were expecting to see. Perhaps RB performance is more unpredictable than you'd think.

If Dentist returns to the fold for Week 7, we'll use his picks. Otherwise we'll continue with Plan B, using the final set of projections from FBG.com and take the #1 player on each of the three lists: QB, RB, WR.

 

[Dentist]

my week 6 picks were under my nomarriage account

this weeks picks are:

McNabb

LT2

Boldin

 

[nomarriage.com]

my week 6 picks were under my nomarriage accountthis weeks picks are:McNabbPortisBoldin

 

[Scarpati]

Sorry, Dentist. Didn't realize you were running two accounts.

Good luck in Week 7!

 

[Scarpati]

Week 7 report

Here are the results so far:

QB

Wk Player Proj Act Ratio Hit 300-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----1 K. Warner 254 301 119% YES2 P. Manning 284 400 141% YES3 D. McNabb 280 296 106% NO4 D. McNabb 299 288 96% NO5 D. McNabb 256 354 138% YES6 D. McNabb 269 247 92% NO7 D. McNabb 262 302 115% YES-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----Tot 1904 2188 115% 4/7RB

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   L. Johnson	 98	68	69%   NO2   S. Alexander   99	89	90%   NO3   S. Jackson	 90	62	69%   NO4   L. Johnson	115   101	88%   YES5   L. Johnson	111	36	32%   NO6   C. Portis	 116	58	50%   NO7   L. Tomlinson   95	66	69%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			   724   480	66%   1/7

WR

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   R. Moss		82	47	57%   NO2   M. Harrison	97   127   131%   YES3   M. Harrison	91	94   103%   NO4   T. Holt	   105   102	97%   YES5   T. Holt		88	40	45%   NO6   T. Holt		88   154   175%   YES7   A. Boldin	  88	59	67%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			   639   623	97%   3/7

Overall average

Wk  Ratio  Hit--  -----   ---1	 82%   1/32	121%   2/33	 93%   0/34	 94%   2/35	 72%   1/36	106%   1/37	 84%   1/3--  -----   ---Tot   94%   8/21

I missed Dentist's Week 6 post under a different name, but he's back in action for Week 7.Donovan scores a second 300-yard game in this contest, but the two newcomers, Tomlinson and Boldin, fall short by fairly wide margins. Overall, FBG.com is slightly over-predicting as outperformance by the QBs combines with significant underperformance by the RBs and roughly on-target performance by the WRs.

Weeks 6 and 7 were tougher weeks to hit in as six teams were on bye each week. It should get a little easier from now on as the field widens.

 

[Scarpati]

This week it'll be McNabb, Tomlinson and Steve Smith.

Steve Smith hasn't played yet, so I'll wait to post the results until later.

The RB projections are going to make up a little ground on the QB projections this week.

 

[Scarpati]

Week 8 report

Here are the results so far:

QB

Wk Player Proj Act Ratio Hit 300-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----1 K. Warner 254 301 119% YES2 P. Manning 284 400 141% YES3 D. McNabb 280 296 106% NO4 D. McNabb 299 288 96% NO5 D. McNabb 256 354 138% YES6 D. McNabb 269 247 92% NO7 D. McNabb 262 302 115% YES8 D. McNabb 233 161 69% NO-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----Tot 2137 2349 110% 4/8RB

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   L. Johnson	 98	68	69%   NO2   S. Alexander   99	89	90%   NO3   S. Jackson	 90	62	69%   NO4   L. Johnson	115   101	88%   YES5   L. Johnson	111	36	32%   NO6   C. Portis	 116	58	50%   NO7   L. Tomlinson   95	66	69%   NO8   L. Tomlinson   93   183   197%   YES--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			   817   663	81%   2/8

WR

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   R. Moss		82	47	57%   NO2   M. Harrison	97   127   131%   YES3   M. Harrison	91	94   103%   NO4   T. Holt	   105   102	97%   YES5   T. Holt		88	40	45%   NO6   T. Holt		88   154   175%   YES7   A. Boldin	  88	59	67%   NO8   S. Smith	  101	55	54%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			   740   678	92%   3/8

Overall average

Wk  Ratio  Hit--  -----   ---1	 82%   1/32	121%   2/33	 93%   0/34	 94%   2/35	 72%   1/36	106%   1/37	 84%   1/38	107%   1/3--  -----   ---Tot   94%   9/24

No picks from Dentist this week, so we're working with the defaults again.FBG.com correctly predicted that this would be McNabb's worst week in the contest, but they didn't predict just how far he'd fall short of 300! On the other hand, LT2 came through in a big way. This was the first week any of our RBs have out-performed the FBG pick, though LJ barely passed 100 in Week 4 when he was projected to rack up 115 yards against the Niners.

 

[Scarpati]

Week 9 report

Here are the results so far:

QB

Wk Player Proj Act Ratio Hit 300-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----1 K. Warner 254 301 119% YES2 P. Manning 284 400 141% YES3 D. McNabb 280 296 106% NO4 D. McNabb 299 288 96% NO5 D. McNabb 256 354 138% YES6 D. McNabb 269 247 92% NO7 D. McNabb 262 302 115% YES8 D. McNabb 233 161 69% NO9 M. Bulger 278 354 127% YES-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----Tot 2415 2703 112% 5/9RB

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   L. Johnson	 98	68	69%   NO2   S. Alexander   99	89	90%   NO3   S. Jackson	 90	62	69%   NO4   L. Johnson	115   101	88%   YES5   L. Johnson	111	36	32%   NO6   C. Portis	 116	58	50%   NO7   L. Tomlinson   95	66	69%   NO8   L. Tomlinson   93   183   197%   YES9   L. Tomlinson  105   172   164%   YES--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			   922   835	91%   3/9

WR

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   R. Moss		82	47	57%   NO2   M. Harrison	97   127   131%   YES3   M. Harrison	91	94   103%   NO4   T. Holt	   105   102	97%   YES5   T. Holt		88	40	45%   NO6   T. Holt		88   154   175%   YES7   A. Boldin	  88	59	67%   NO8   S. Smith	  101	55	54%   NO9   T. Holt		90	50	56%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			   830   728	88%   3/9

Overall average

Wk  Ratio  Hit--  -----   ---1	 82%   1/32	121%   2/33	 93%   0/34	 94%   2/35	 72%   1/36	106%   1/37	 84%   1/38	107%   1/39	116%   2/3--  -----   ---Tot   97%  11/27

Another week with default picks. Even though Dentist seems to have given up on the effort, perhaps judging it harder than anticipated, I'm going to continue the experiment through Week 16. We'll get a better answer by running it all the way through, as random influences will be less important as we collect more data.It looks like we've been doing better in the RB contest since we got smart and put LT2 into our lineup. Of course, LJ has been doing well since then as well, but maybe he couldn't take the pressure of having to carry the RB load in our contest.

We've now gone three weeks without breaking 60 yards in the WR part of the standings, and in fact we've been under 60 more than half of the weeks so far. This is consistent with what I would have expected: WRs are less consistent since their performance is dependent on more factors than the performance of a QB or RB.

 

[Scarpati]

Week 10 report

Here are the results so far:

QB

Wk Player Proj Act Ratio Hit 300-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----1 K. Warner 254 301 119% YES2 P. Manning 284 400 141% YES3 D. McNabb 280 296 106% NO4 D. McNabb 299 288 96% NO5 D. McNabb 256 354 138% YES6 D. McNabb 269 247 92% NO7 D. McNabb 262 302 115% YES8 D. McNabb 233 161 69% NO9 M. Bulger 278 354 127% YES10 P. Manning 275 236 86% NO-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----Tot 2690 2939 109% 5/10RB

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   L. Johnson	 98	68	69%   NO2   S. Alexander   99	89	90%   NO3   S. Jackson	 90	62	69%   NO4   L. Johnson	115   101	88%   YES5   L. Johnson	111	36	32%   NO6   C. Portis	 116	58	50%   NO7   L. Tomlinson   95	66	69%   NO8   L. Tomlinson   93   183   197%   YES9   L. Tomlinson  105   172   164%   YES10  L. Tomlinson  106   104	98%   YES--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			  1028   939	91%   4/10

WR

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   R. Moss		82	47	57%   NO2   M. Harrison	97   127   131%   YES3   M. Harrison	91	94   103%   NO4   T. Holt	   105   102	97%   YES5   T. Holt		88	40	45%   NO6   T. Holt		88   154   175%   YES7   A. Boldin	  88	59	67%   NO8   S. Smith	  101	55	54%   NO9   T. Holt		90	50	56%   NO10  R. Williams	97	81	84%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			   927   809	87%   3/10

Overall average

Wk  Ratio  Hit--  -----   ---1	 82%   1/32	121%   2/33	 93%   0/34	 94%   2/35	 72%   1/36	106%   1/37	 84%   1/38	107%   1/39	116%   2/310	89%   1/3--  -----   ---Tot   96%  12/30

Peyton was happy to win the game, but he didn't have an outstanding day from a fantasy standpoint. The QBs are back down to 50%, though as a group they are still outperforming the FBG projections by a good-sized margin.Ladanian beat the 100-yard mark for the third straight week. He didn't have nearly as many yards this time, with 104, though the 4 TDs (which don't affect this thread) were a nice bonus. Both of my Week 10 games featured LT2---I played him in one and faced him in the other---and neither of the teams he was playing on won.

Roy Williams made his first appearance on the list in Week 10. It's not easy for a player to make it onto this list, so it's an honor for him to be listed as a weekly pick along with Moss, Harrison, Holt, Smith and Boldin. Only Harrison and Holt have topped 100 yards with the spotlight on, though.

 

[Scarpati]

Week 11 report

Here are the results so far:

QB

Wk Player Proj Act Ratio Hit 300-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----1 K. Warner 254 301 119% YES2 P. Manning 284 400 141% YES3 D. McNabb 280 296 106% NO4 D. McNabb 299 288 96% NO5 D. McNabb 256 354 138% YES6 D. McNabb 269 247 92% NO7 D. McNabb 262 302 115% YES8 D. McNabb 233 161 69% NO9 M. Bulger 278 354 127% YES10 P. Manning 275 236 86% NO11 D. McNabb 289 78 27% NO-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----Tot 2979 3017 101% 5/11RB

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   L. Johnson	 98	68	69%   NO2   S. Alexander   99	89	90%   NO3   S. Jackson	 90	62	69%   NO4   L. Johnson	115   101	88%   YES5   L. Johnson	111	36	32%   NO6   C. Portis	 116	58	50%   NO7   L. Tomlinson   95	66	69%   NO8   L. Tomlinson   93   183   197%   YES9   L. Tomlinson  105   172   164%   YES10  L. Tomlinson  106   104	98%   YES11  L. Johnson	110   154   140%   YES--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			  1138  1093	96%   5/11

WR

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   R. Moss		82	47	57%   NO2   M. Harrison	97   127   131%   YES3   M. Harrison	91	94   103%   NO4   T. Holt	   105   102	97%   YES5   T. Holt		88	40	45%   NO6   T. Holt		88   154   175%   YES7   A. Boldin	  88	59	67%   NO8   S. Smith	  101	55	54%   NO9   T. Holt		90	50	56%   NO10  R. Williams	97	81	84%   NO11  S. Smith	   99	90	88%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			  1026   899	88%   3/11

Overall average

Wk  Ratio  Hit--  -----   ---1	 82%   1/32	121%   2/33	 93%   0/34	 94%   2/35	 72%   1/36	106%   1/37	 84%   1/38	107%   1/39	116%   2/310	89%   1/311	86%   1/3--  -----   ---Tot   95%  13/33

Wow! Those RBs are on a tear. For a while it seemed all the coaches were trying to be tricky, restricting the carries of their star RBs and trying fancier stuff, but as the season goes along, they've come to their senses. The only question is whether we should put LT or LJ into our contest each week (Dentist, you're still welcome to come out of the stands and let us know which one you prefer!)At the QB position, McNabb's injury left him far short of the FBG forecast and brought the overall FBG prediction ratio for QBs down to 101%. Some people might think we should make an exception for serious injuries, but injuries are part of the game, and FBG needs to include them in their calculations. Given two otherwise equal QBs, it's better to play the one who has a lower chance of being knocked out of the game.

 

[Scarpati]

Week 12 report

Here are the results so far:

QB

Wk Player Proj Act Ratio Hit 300-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----1 K. Warner 254 301 119% YES2 P. Manning 284 400 141% YES3 D. McNabb 280 296 106% NO4 D. McNabb 299 288 96% NO5 D. McNabb 256 354 138% YES6 D. McNabb 269 247 92% NO7 D. McNabb 262 302 115% YES8 D. McNabb 233 161 69% NO9 M. Bulger 278 354 127% YES10 P. Manning 275 236 86% NO11 D. McNabb 289 78 27% NO12 P. Manning 266 183 69% NO-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----Tot 3245 3200 99% 5/12RB

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   L. Johnson	 98	68	69%   NO2   S. Alexander   99	89	90%   NO3   S. Jackson	 90	62	69%   NO4   L. Johnson	115   101	88%   YES5   L. Johnson	111	36	32%   NO6   C. Portis	 116	58	50%   NO7   L. Tomlinson   95	66	69%   NO8   L. Tomlinson   93   183   197%   YES9   L. Tomlinson  105   172   164%   YES10  L. Tomlinson  106   104	98%   YES11  L. Johnson	110   154   140%   YES12  L. Tomlinson  130   109	84%   YES--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			  1268  1202	95%   6/12

WR

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   R. Moss		82	47	57%   NO2   M. Harrison	97   127   131%   YES3   M. Harrison	91	94   103%   NO4   T. Holt	   105   102	97%   YES5   T. Holt		88	40	45%   NO6   T. Holt		88   154   175%   YES7   A. Boldin	  88	59	67%   NO8   S. Smith	  101	55	54%   NO9   T. Holt		90	50	56%   NO10  R. Williams	97	81	84%   NO11  S. Smith	   99	90	88%   NO12  S. Smith	   98	34	35%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			  1124   933	83%   3/12

Overall average

Wk  Ratio  Hit--  -----   ---1	 82%   1/32	121%   2/33	 93%   0/34	 94%   2/35	 72%   1/36	106%   1/37	 84%   1/38	107%   1/39	116%   2/310	89%   1/311	86%   1/312	62%   1/3--  -----   ---Tot   91%  14/36

LT2 gets the biggest FBG forecast number by far for a RB, and the lowly Raiders give the Chargers all they can handle. Of course, the TD pass wasn't bad, but it doesn't count here (does FBG even project passing yards by RBs?)Steve Smith gets only 34 yards this week (no consolation to the team on which I started Delhomme) in the worst WR performance of the contest. Smith has been a big disappointment in the three weeks he's started---maybe FBG hasn't adjusted to the drop in Carolina's passing prowess?

Last week Donovan had a big miss due to injury, but this week Peyton was held to a paltry (for him) 183 yards as the team was able to win it without him.

 

[Scarpati]

Week 13 report

Here are the results so far:

QB

Wk Player Proj Act Ratio Hit 300-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----1 K. Warner 254 301 119% YES2 P. Manning 284 400 141% YES3 D. McNabb 280 296 106% NO4 D. McNabb 299 288 96% NO5 D. McNabb 256 354 138% YES6 D. McNabb 269 247 92% NO7 D. McNabb 262 302 115% YES8 D. McNabb 233 161 69% NO9 M. Bulger 278 354 127% YES10 P. Manning 275 236 86% NO11 D. McNabb 289 78 27% NO12 P. Manning 266 183 69% NO13 D. Brees 283 186 27% NO-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----Tot 3528 3386 96% 5/13RB

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   L. Johnson	 98	68	69%   NO2   S. Alexander   99	89	90%   NO3   S. Jackson	 90	62	69%   NO4   L. Johnson	115   101	88%   YES5   L. Johnson	111	36	32%   NO6   C. Portis	 116	58	50%   NO7   L. Tomlinson   95	66	69%   NO8   L. Tomlinson   93   183   197%   YES9   L. Tomlinson  105   172   164%   YES10  L. Tomlinson  106   104	98%   YES11  L. Johnson	110   154   140%   YES12  L. Tomlinson  130   109	84%   YES13  L. Tomlinson  130   178   137%   YES--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			  1398  1380	99%   7/13

WR

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   R. Moss		82	47	57%   NO2   M. Harrison	97   127   131%   YES3   M. Harrison	91	94   103%   NO4   T. Holt	   105   102	97%   YES5   T. Holt		88	40	45%   NO6   T. Holt		88   154   175%   YES7   A. Boldin	  88	59	67%   NO8   S. Smith	  101	55	54%   NO9   T. Holt		90	50	56%   NO10  R. Williams	97	81	84%   NO11  S. Smith	   99	90	88%   NO12  S. Smith	   98	34	35%   NO13  T. Owens	   88	84	95%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			  1212  1017	84%   3/13

Overall average

Wk  Ratio  Hit--  -----   ---1	 82%   1/32	121%   2/33	 93%   0/34	 94%   2/35	 72%   1/36	106%   1/37	 84%   1/38	107%   1/39	116%   2/310	89%   1/311	86%   1/312	62%   1/313	99%   1/3--  -----   ---Tot   93%  15/39

Two new names appear on the lists this week: Drew Brees and Terrell Owens. Neither of them can cross the magic line, though LT2 continues to hold up the honor of the RB guild. The QBs in particular have lost a lot of steam in the past four weeks.FBG.com has now over-predicted on average at all three positions, though only by a small margin (on overage the actual numbers are coming in at 93% of their predictions.) At the start of this thread it was hypothesized that they should increase their predictions for the best players, but maybe they should decrease them...

After 13 weeks, 15 out of 39 performances have exceeded the 100- or 300-yard benchmark. That's about 38% (sounds like a 3rd-down conversion ratio.)

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

This is pretty interesting, Scarpati. Thanks for keeping it up.

 

[radballs]

This is pretty interesting, Scarpati. Thanks for keeping it up.

 

[Scarpati]

Week 14 report

Here are the results so far:

QB

Wk Player Proj Act Ratio Hit 300-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----1 K. Warner 254 301 119% YES2 P. Manning 284 400 141% YES3 D. McNabb 280 296 106% NO4 D. McNabb 299 288 96% NO5 D. McNabb 256 354 138% YES6 D. McNabb 269 247 92% NO7 D. McNabb 262 302 115% YES8 D. McNabb 233 161 69% NO9 M. Bulger 278 354 127% YES10 P. Manning 275 236 86% NO11 D. McNabb 289 78 27% NO12 P. Manning 266 183 69% NO13 D. Brees 283 186 27% NO14 M. Vick 178 155 87% NO-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----Tot 3706 3541 96% 5/14RB

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   L. Johnson	 98	68	69%   NO2   S. Alexander   99	89	90%   NO3   S. Jackson	 90	62	69%   NO4   L. Johnson	115   101	88%   YES5   L. Johnson	111	36	32%   NO6   C. Portis	 116	58	50%   NO7   L. Tomlinson   95	66	69%   NO8   L. Tomlinson   93   183   197%   YES9   L. Tomlinson  105   172   164%   YES10  L. Tomlinson  106   104	98%   YES11  L. Johnson	110   154   140%   YES12  L. Tomlinson  130   109	84%   YES13  L. Tomlinson  130   178   137%   YES14  L. Tomlinson  124   103	83%   YES--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			  1522  1483	97%   8/14

WR

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   R. Moss		82	47	57%   NO2   M. Harrison	97   127   131%   YES3   M. Harrison	91	94   103%   NO4   T. Holt	   105   102	97%   YES5   T. Holt		88	40	45%   NO6   T. Holt		88   154   175%   YES7   A. Boldin	  88	59	67%   NO8   S. Smith	  101	55	54%   NO9   T. Holt		90	50	56%   NO10  R. Williams	97	81	84%   NO11  S. Smith	   99	90	88%   NO12  S. Smith	   98	34	35%   NO13  T. Owens	   88	84	95%   NO14  T. Owens	   88	56	64%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			  1300  1073	83%   3/14

Overall average

Wk  Ratio  Hit--  -----   ---1	 82%   1/32	121%   2/33	 93%   0/34	 94%   2/35	 72%   1/36	106%   1/37	 84%   1/38	107%   1/39	116%   2/310	89%   1/311	86%   1/312	62%   1/313	99%   1/314	78%   1/3--  -----   ---Tot   92%  16/42

Well, I wouldn't have expected FBG.com to predict only 178 passing yards for their #1 QB, but that's Michael Vick for you! The flip side is that he only needed to beat 178 yards to exceed the projection, but he fell short at 155, continuing a streak of futility for FBG's top QB picks. It's hard to fault Vick when McNabb, Peyton and Brees all failed to beat 200 yards in the three preceding weeks.If it weren't for the RBs, this contest would be completely lopsided. Notice how the weekly yardage predictions have climbed as FBG gets a better feel for which RBs we can count on to have big days. Of course, LT's 103 yards represent only 83% of the projected total, but he did beat 100. It's a shame my team with LT and LJ got bounced in the first round of the playoffs last week, but that's fantasy football for you.

I don't know what's up with the WRs. The top FBG WRs have averaged less than 64 yards a game since Week 7. Maybe NFL coaches are reading this thread and rotating the coverage to keep from being embarrassed?

 

[Scarpati]

Week 15 report

Here are the results so far:

QB

Wk Player Proj Act Ratio Hit 300-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----1 K. Warner 254 301 119% YES2 P. Manning 284 400 141% YES3 D. McNabb 280 296 106% NO4 D. McNabb 299 288 96% NO5 D. McNabb 256 354 138% YES6 D. McNabb 269 247 92% NO7 D. McNabb 262 302 115% YES8 D. McNabb 233 161 69% NO9 M. Bulger 278 354 127% YES10 P. Manning 275 236 86% NO11 D. McNabb 289 78 27% NO12 P. Manning 266 183 69% NO13 D. Brees 283 186 27% NO14 M. Vick 178 155 87% NO15 D. Brees 262 207 79% NO-- ----------- --- --- ---- -----Tot 3968 3748 94% 5/15RB

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   L. Johnson	 98	68	69%   NO2   S. Alexander   99	89	90%   NO3   S. Jackson	 90	62	69%   NO4   L. Johnson	115   101	88%   YES5   L. Johnson	111	36	32%   NO6   C. Portis	 116	58	50%   NO7   L. Tomlinson   95	66	69%   NO8   L. Tomlinson   93   183   197%   YES9   L. Tomlinson  105   172   164%   YES10  L. Tomlinson  106   104	98%   YES11  L. Johnson	110   154   140%   YES12  L. Tomlinson  130   109	84%   YES13  L. Tomlinson  130   178   137%   YES14  L. Tomlinson  124   103	83%   YES15  L. Tomlinson  120   199   166%   YES--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			  1642  1682   102%   9/15

WR

Wk  Player		Proj  Act  Ratio  Hit 100--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----1   R. Moss		82	47	57%   NO2   M. Harrison	97   127   131%   YES3   M. Harrison	91	94   103%   NO4   T. Holt	   105   102	97%   YES5   T. Holt		88	40	45%   NO6   T. Holt		88   154   175%   YES7   A. Boldin	  88	59	67%   NO8   S. Smith	  101	55	54%   NO9   T. Holt		90	50	56%   NO10  R. Williams	97	81	84%   NO11  S. Smith	   99	90	88%   NO12  S. Smith	   98	34	35%   NO13  T. Owens	   88	84	95%   NO14  T. Owens	   88	56	64%   NO15  C. Johnson	 83	37	45%   NO--  -----------   ---   ---   ----  -----Tot			  1383  1110	80%   3/15

Overall average

Wk  Ratio  Hit--  -----   ---1	 82%   1/32	121%   2/33	 93%   0/34	 94%   2/35	 72%   1/36	106%   1/37	 84%   1/38	107%   1/39	116%   2/310	89%   1/311	86%   1/312	62%   1/313	99%   1/314	78%   1/315	96%   1/3--  -----   ---Tot   92%  17/45

The QB team breaks the 200-yard barrier for the first time since the middle of November, but still falls woefully short of 300. Ocho Cinco makes his first appearance on this list and lays a huevo with only 3 catches for 37 yards (it doesn't help much if you throw in his 1-yard carry!)Mr. Tomlinson is an amazing 7 for 8 in this contest, and we aren't even counting the 31 TDs. Overall we're hitting at 38%, but it would be more accurate to say we can pick 100-yard RBs and can't pick the other positions, at least during the latter half of the season.