Conventional wisdom: or do you just know? (1 Viewer)

[3quinox]

What do you guys do? I am fairly new to Fantasy Football but have been trying to pick up as much as I can. When it comes to who you pick for your team at the end of the day what do you use the most? I have heard many sites and people say "Conventional Wisdom says take player A." But what about the other feeling? That feeling you get in your gut when you just think "Screw that! Player B can be the same if not better?" Is there a certain way to balance them both out?

 

[bonesman]

Conventional wisdom says always go with your gut.

 

[Sabertooth]

One thing I do is take players that I like that have good character. Because you just never know when Brandon Marshall is going to melt down again. You never know when Steve Smith is going to punch another team mate in the face. So that's important to me. At that point, I go with my guy but not in the heat of the moment. Print out a cheat sheet and go through the top 32 quarterbacks, 50 running backs, and 60 wide receivers. Move guys up and down as your gut tells you, reading a little about each before moving them. If you are considering sliding Dez Bryant up into the top 5, make sure you check his latest news and also that of the players he is going to leapfrog.

 

[Donsmith753]

I suppose it depends upon how smart you are.

 

[jurb26]

Conventional wisdom says always go with your gut.

 

[CapnJB]

I do what the voices in my wife's head tell me to do.

 

[lbouchard]

Go with your get. Seriously. Screw what other people think. Last year, before holdout news came, I traded CJ2K for LeSean McCoy and the 1.3 rookie ( ended up being Julio Jones). To this day, probably the best trade I've ever made. And I had many people lambasting me for it and saying I had rookie fever. GO WITH YOUR GUT

 

[Zaphod]

Go with an informed gut.

Stay abreast of current news and educate yourself on how others rate players and evaluate attributes. Learn from a variety of sources until you develop a solid foundation - and then make it yours.

 

[squistion]

At best the conventional wisdom is right about 50% of time - at worst 30%. Take into account what most people/experts are saying but remember that quite often you could do just as well by flipping a coin.

What I do is make my own rankings for each position first, before I look at anyone elses. Then I compare my rankings to the others. If I have player ranked significantly higher or lower than most, then I take a second look at that player to see if my thinking is off (for whatever reason). If after some additional research I still feel the same way, then I go with my opinion over the conventional wisdom.

From my experience, the people who do best in fantasy football are those who don't always follow the herd. Don't be afraid to occasionally roll the dice on a high risk/high upside pick. Those who win league championships quite often do so by finding undervalued players that most people have overlooked or dismissed from consideration.

 

[PewterFan]

What do you guys do? I am fairly new to Fantasy Football but have been trying to pick up as much as I can. When it comes to who you pick for your team at the end of the day what do you use the most? I have heard many sites and people say "Conventional Wisdom says take player A." But what about the other feeling? That feeling you get in your gut when you just think "Screw that! Player B can be the same if not better?" Is there a certain way to balance them both out?

Understand groupthink and how it relates to fantasy football. Then develop your own opinion of players. If you value Player A greatly, but understand that a majority of other owners don't, you'll have a better idea on what to offer in order to get said player.Read the bylaws of your league twice. Same with scoring. Darren Sproles is worth much more in PPR leagues than in leagues that don't offer points for receptions.Don't make trades just to make trades. If others know you're new, they'll try hard to rip you off. It's okay to walk away from trade talks.You'll make plenty of mistakes. It's only bad when you make it twice. Good luck.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Go with your get. Seriously. Screw what other people think. Last year, before holdout news came, I traded CJ2K for LeSean McCoy and the 1.3 rookie ( ended up being Julio Jones). To this day, probably the best trade I've ever made. And I had many people lambasting me for it and saying I had rookie fever. GO WITH YOUR GUT

That was a stupid trade for the other guy even at that time. Horrible example.

 

[lbouchard]

Go with your get. Seriously. Screw what other people think. Last year, before holdout news came, I traded CJ2K for LeSean McCoy and the 1.3 rookie ( ended up being Julio Jones). To this day, probably the best trade I've ever made. And I had many people lambasting me for it and saying I had rookie fever. GO WITH YOUR GUT

That was a stupid trade for the other guy even at that time. Horrible example.

My bad, I did include the 1.7, but everyone knew the top tier went 3 deep, and I hated the 1.7 pick. But it's not really insane. CJ, along with AP and JC, was regarded as a consensus top 3 back and pick. McCoy was regarded as a top 8 back, but a tier two guy. CJ was a clear tier one.

 

[3quinox]

Thanks for the input everyone. This will definitely help me come draft day.

 

[cstu]

Go with your get. Seriously. Screw what other people think. Last year, before holdout news came, I traded CJ2K for LeSean McCoy and the 1.3 rookie ( ended up being Julio Jones). To this day, probably the best trade I've ever made. And I had many people lambasting me for it and saying I had rookie fever. GO WITH YOUR GUT

That was a stupid trade for the other guy even at that time. Horrible example.

My bad, I did include the 1.7, but everyone knew the top tier went 3 deep, and I hated the 1.7 pick. But it's not really insane. CJ, along with AP and JC, was regarded as a consensus top 3 back and pick. McCoy was regarded as a top 8 back, but a tier two guy. CJ was a clear tier one.

McCoy did outscore CJ in 2010 and is 3 years younger so a lot of people had him ranked ahead of CJ.That said, it's a good example of the problem with following conventional wisdom.

 

[DropKick]

I just know. Calling it "gut" feeling credits the wrong body part. The eye ball test is probably more important.

Not a fan of group think to begin with but, when you consider the differences in line-up requirements and scoring systems, what is true in one league is not necessarily true in another.

 

[yawyaw]

I just know. Calling is "gut" feeling credits the wrong body part. The eye ball test is probably more important.

Not if it doesn't pass the smell test.

 

[yawyaw]

If all else fails, I just play it by ear.

 

[mr roboto]

Listen to your heart. Dip your toe into the trade talks and see if you get those tingles up your spine. That's how you'll know.

 

[DropKick]

Listen to your heart. Dip your toe into the trade talks and see if you get those tingles up your spine. That's how you'll know.

A positive attitude will get you a leg up on the rest of the league. Thumbs down on conventional wisdom!

 

[sspunisher]

If you're new to fantasy than conventional wisdom is the way to go for starters. A gut feeling here and there is fine, but more likely than not even the less informed "experts" are more informed than you are when you first start. After playing fantasy football for over 15 years, I don't even care what everyone else is doing. I wouldn't say I rely on my gut 100% though. I rely mostly on personal research, though my gut definitely organizes the research into rankings.

 

[TheWick]

One thing I do is take players that I like that have good character. Because you just never know when Brandon Marshall is going to melt down again. You never know when Steve Smith is going to punch another team mate in the face. So that's important to me. At that point, I go with my guy but not in the heat of the moment. Print out a cheat sheet and go through the top 32 quarterbacks, 50 running backs, and 60 wide receivers. Move guys up and down as your gut tells you, reading a little about each before moving them. If you are considering sliding Dez Bryant up into the top 5, make sure you check his latest news and also that of the players he is going to leapfrog.

For your sake I sure hope he doesn't read this.