Corona Virus Serious Level - 3.6.20 (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

What a difference 2 weeks makes.....

 

[sho nuff]

Was a 7 at the time of the poll...definitely 8.5-9 now.

 

[adonis]

Think I'd bump up to a 9 now.

 

[zftcg]

I think if you ignore Joe’s original criteria, which posited a 10 as “World War 3”, and just think of it in terms of how unprecedented it is in any of our lifetimes, it’s clearly a 10. It has literally turned the lives of every person on this planet upside down. 

The only reason I can think of for not giving it a 10 is if you think it could get even more disruptive, which is definitely a possibility. 

 

[The General]

I’m wrong often but people who voted “1” on this 

 

[John Blutarsky]

I think if you ignore Joe’s original criteria, which posited a 10 as “World War 3”, and just think of it in terms of how unprecedented it is in any of our lifetimes, it’s clearly a 10. It has literally turned the lives of every person on this planet upside down. 

The only reason I can think of for not giving it a 10 is if you think it could get even more disruptive, which is definitely a possibility. 

So you are equating this to World War 3? 75 million people died in WW II, 40 million in WW I.

 

[Sinn Fein]

I thought this was a pretty astute observation:

Max Fisher @Max_Fisher ·1h

Nearly every question I get about coronavirus is some variation of "How worried should I be?"

Here’s my best attempt at an answer.

Short version: you’re probably overstating the individual health risk, and understating the systemic dangers of an outbreak.

The odds of any individual getting the virus, and having a serious reaction, are very small - so small that its not worth worrying about, imo.

But, the damage to the economy can be big - if we start shuttering businesses for weeks to avoid further spread.  And, the more we see the virus spread, the more likely we will see rolling economic shut-downs around the country.

I am still good with this analysis.

 

[Herb]

So you are equating this to World War 3? 75 million people died in WW II, 40 million in WW I.

Did you even read the post you responded to?

 

[zftcg]

So you are equating this to World War 3? 75 million people died in WW II, 40 million in WW I.

I was disagreeing with the premise of defining it solely in terms of deaths. Think of it this way: 3,000 people died on 9/11; 230,000 died in one day during the 2004 tsunami. Even if you want to argue that the latter was a more significant event, which is highly debatable, there is no way it was 75 times more significant.

I was defining it in terms of a disruptive, memorable event in our lives. Maybe people who were alive during World War II would argue that was more disruptive, but I doubt many people posting here are that old. I was born in 1973, and in my lifetime I would probably argue the biggest events prior to this were 9/11, the end of the Cold War, the Great Recession and the tsunami. No matter where the death toll ends up, this pandemic clearly blows all of them out of the water.

 

[John Blutarsky]

It killed 6-7 million combatants, which is what I had in mind.

But if covid-19 infects 70% of the world population and kills 1% of those infected (both within ranges I've seen estimated), that's more than 50 million casualties.

Still believe this?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Still believe this?

Yes, all of that seems correct. (Thankfully, it appears that we've avoided hitting the top ends of those ranges.)

 

[The General]

I was disagreeing with the premise of defining it solely in terms of deaths. Think of it this way: 3,000 people died on 9/11; 230,000 died in one day during the 2004 tsunami. Even if you want to argue that the latter was a more significant event, which is highly debatable, there is no way it was 75 times more significant.

I was defining it in terms of a disruptive, memorable event in our lives. Maybe people who were alive during World War II would argue that was more disruptive, but I doubt many people posting here are that old. I was born in 1973, and in my lifetime I would probably argue the biggest events prior to this were 9/11, the end of the Cold War, the Great Recession and the tsunami. No matter where the death toll ends up, this pandemic clearly blows all of them out of the water.

This is a good post. 

Think I voted a 6? Maybe, can't remember.

I was also born in 73. This has been the most disruptive event in my life and it's not really close, 9/11 probably next closest, and we are very much just in the middle of it's arc.

 

[JamieMurphy]

This thread is absolutely fascinating. Started March 6 before the crap truly hit the fan and documents people's predictions in an eerie way. Someone said they'd only worry if March Madness was canceled.

Seeing the rankings people gave along with their rationale and political leanings makes this a potential useful tool in future studies of perceptions and politics.

 

[Gawain]

 This has been the most disruptive event in my life and it's not really close, 9/11 probably next closest, and we are very much just in the middle of it's arc.

If you believe the War on Terror's proximate cause is 9/11, I think that the two are a lot closer than you think (and this is from a guy who checked 10 when Joe posted in the FFA).

The total cost of 9/11 will be in the 14-figures (tens of trillions). The effects will span more than a century. If we have a decent treatment in 6 months and a vaccine in 24, the CV will be a distant memory while we are still paying veteran's benefits, treating PTSD and likely still sending young men and women overseas as a result of our actions in response to 9/11.

 

[The General]

If you believe the War on Terror's proximate cause is 9/11, I think that the two are a lot closer than you think (and this is from a guy who checked 10 when Joe posted in the FFA).

The total cost of 9/11 will be in the 14-figures (tens of trillions). The effects will span more than a century. If we have a decent treatment in 6 months and a vaccine in 24, the CV will be a distant memory while we are still paying veteran's benefits, treating PTSD and likely still sending young men and women overseas as a result of our actions in response to 9/11.

This is all true. 9/11 obviously a life altering event. Led to tremendous amount of tragedy.

Just speaking personal experience and how they have impacted my life I guess.

I took the bus to work on the morning of 9/11. Don’t think I missed a day of work. Was flying around the country a couple weeks later.

This event has shut down my entire company, my entire city. I have spoken to a handful of people in person in about a month. 

My job is very travel dependent and a lot of my work is based around events, trade shows, public events. All of those things are most likely changed for the next year or so. We’ll see how and what that comes back like. Maybe I’ll have a job, who knows.

 

[zftcg]

If you believe the War on Terror's proximate cause is 9/11, I think that the two are a lot closer than you think (and this is from a guy who checked 10 when Joe posted in the FFA).

The total cost of 9/11 will be in the 14-figures (tens of trillions). The effects will span more than a century. If we have a decent treatment in 6 months and a vaccine in 24, the CV will be a distant memory while we are still paying veteran's benefits, treating PTSD and likely still sending young men and women overseas as a result of our actions in response to 9/11.

This goes back to what I was saying earlier about how it all depends on how you define the parameters. I think of 9/11 as a discrete event, though you are of course right that it led to a bunch of other calamitous things. Then again, by that logic couldn't you group WWI and WWII together as a singular chain of events, since the former led directly to the latter?

Anyway, my point isn't to say that you're wrong, just that it's hard to debate because our answers depend on certain assumptions we're all making. You are probably right that the coronavirus won't have the kind of long-term consequences that 9/11 did, though it is certainly possible that it will. Incidentally, I recently read Malcolm Gladwell's 1997 article about the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, and one thing he mentions is that it's been strangely minimized by history. All the great writers of the 1920s (Hemingway, Fitzgerald, etc.) lived through it, yet there are no great works of literature that use it as a backdrop. I had heard about it before our current pandemic started, but surprisingly little considering the number of deaths it caused.

 

[sho nuff]

If you believe the War on Terror's proximate cause is 9/11, I think that the two are a lot closer than you think (and this is from a guy who checked 10 when Joe posted in the FFA).

The total cost of 9/11 will be in the 14-figures (tens of trillions). The effects will span more than a century. If we have a decent treatment in 6 months and a vaccine in 24, the CV will be a distant memory while we are still paying veteran's benefits, treating PTSD and likely still sending young men and women overseas as a result of our actions in response to 9/11.

I see what several of your are saying...though, to add, the effects of this aren't fully known yet and some will not just be a distant memory.  What we do already know of is how we may change all the way down to shaking hands or not anymore.  We know in many cases those who have had this and recover may have long term heart, lung, and possibly kidney damage.

As for PTSD...I think if you talk to some of the nurses and doctors who have worked with this...there will be plenty spent on treating that now as well.

Then we get to the little things that changed.  Similar to security procedures after 9/11.  How long before a buffet is back open?  Are the build your own burrito or sandwich or whatever...where the food is all right there for everyone to see...yeah, there is some glass barrier, but does the FDA get stricter on those things.  Companies (who already should have) going to more touch free bathrooms.  

While we may get the vaccine...this won't be the last virus.  And people are going to change how they do things long term to protect themselves.  I agree its a different thing than 9/11.  But I think the impact being discussed will be broader than what you laid out as a distant memory.