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It was supposed to be much, much worse. It ended up as another flu strain. The flu is, of course, serious. It’s just something we are used to dealing with.
Hopefully. They are a bigger auto market than the US.
Of course. I think a strong reaction by the appropriate organizations is warranted. I’m just putting it in context given our strides in this area.
But that is the thing. For sake of argument lets just go with this never being really a big deal in the US as far as loss of life and other health system related issues relative to health threats we see everyday. That it is nothing more than overreaction and "freaking out" for the next few months. But that still makes this something I simply don't ever remember seeing anything comparable before. I've never been told before that if I come in contact, even casually with anyone who has been recently in certain countries that I cannot go into work for two weeks. I have never received e-mails from my health providers that if I have a respiratory illness that I must use their app instead of going into their offices, or if I must use one of their affiliated urgent care or ER rooms that I must prearrange my visit. I don't remember major events that take years of planning just being canceled. I thought it was a sight I'd never see again when the Orioles played to an empty stadium after the riots a few years back, but that is being talked about for a variety of sports as if it was routine. Cancel March Madness? Cancel the Olympics? When in the past would such an idea not just be "crazy talk"? Maybe in the end it proves to have been all an overreaction when it all shakes out, but it is still an event that I cannot think of a peer in my lifetime.
I voted 6 as well. Unfortunately we made plans a couple months ago to visit the Bay area and will be flying. Going to bring disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer. Also just in case I have respirator masks on hand all the time for my work and will bring. I sense this will be an issue for a couple more months as more and more cases and deaths occur. But realize it will be the elderly and infants it affects primarily with underlying conditions. I did hear once they consider obese and diabetes underlying conditions though. That covers a lot of people.
I don't do any of this stuff, but if you plan to disinfect, be sure to bring it. I've heard there has been a run on these items in stores.
Really?
What about if we start playing NBA/NHL games in empty arenas?
I recall reading a story about your namesake and how he was once able to resist the flu bug that ran through the Lions locker room. Everyone got sick but him.
Does anyone have data on the breakdown of age and health of those who have died from this? From what I have seen, it is worse for those over 65 and those with serious underlying health conditions, especially respiratory conditions. Just not sure if it is a reasonable thing to suggest than 70M 18-25 year olds could die as a result of this... I think that would be around 6% of the world's population in that age range. Is there some rationale to believe this?
I think the 18-25 yo was teh comparison he was making to WWI - where soldiers tend to be younger. He suggests that is worse for the world than the number of age 70+ deaths. (and he would be correct in that suggestion).
Couldn’t agree with this more. Odds are the direct impact on our family of 4 is less than 50%. Not insignificant risk but even if we get a direct blow—one of us is sick—I’m trusting the experts that odds are in our favor of being ok.
From what I've seen it's mostly the old and those with compromised immune systems from other underlying health issues.
I’m at a 2 as well. If my March Madness trip to St. Louis gets the axe in 12 days I will move to an elevated level immediately.
Conference tournaments and NCAA tournaments seem like really easy places to maximize the spread of the virus. People coming from all over a region - or even further - to a single spot, and then heading back home.
There are real estimates that up to 70% of the world's population will get this. With even a lower mortality rate than has been talked about, millions of people would ten.
Probably best for @Maurile Tremblay
World War II killed 70-85 million people, many of whom were 18-25.
It killed 6-7 million combatants, which is what I had in mind.
No it isnt.
China seems to be recovering, 1/7th of the world population with deaths only in the 3000s. You would have to infect a third of the world with the exagerated 3.4% mortality rate or every single person on the planet at the real rate that is closer to 1%. We could take zero action and no precautions and 70 mill would still be impossible.
What are the upper ranges of the estimates you've seen for expected infection rate and expected fatality rate?No it isnt.
Link
Update: the guy who estimated that 40%-70% of the world population is likely to be infected has since revised his estimate downward, and now thinks the plausible range is 20%-60%.
Also note that he doesn't say 20-60% of the world population. He says of the world's adult population. I'm not sure where he draws the line for 'adult' but ~26% of the world's population is 15 or younger. So if we rule them out, 20-60% of adults equates to about 15%-45% of the world population.
It could decline in the summer (in Northern hemisphere) but that's not guaranteed. That would help the spread for sure. Expectation would then for it to pick up again next fall/ winter. But hopefully we'd be close to a vaccine by then. Effectiveness of vaccine also a big x factor.
Fauci and everyone else is pleading for folks to please slam the brakes on vaccine expectations. Nothing available within 12-18 mo. We need to plan for other mitigation measures until fall 2021.
That is a false hope too. H1N1 for example was completely unphased by warmer summer weather conditions. This is not the common flu (or as Trump says Coronaflu).
