Costanza Strategy (1 Viewer)

[bshell27]

Your gut tells you to start someone. Projections tell you to start someone, but you don't feel right. How many of you go against the grain when there is a consensus Start this player over that one? In essence, the "do the opposite" theory? I am thinking about trying it this week, if you read my thread in the AC you will know who is involved, but I just wanted to hear some opinions if anyone has done this and the success level.

I actually like going into weeks knowing that you went against what even you thought was right and having it pay off.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

If your gut told you to start someone...you wouldn't "not feel right" about starting them. Not sure what you mean there. I think a Costanza strategy would be more like drafting a player who you think is a big injury risk and overrated because you want to do the opposite.

I'm usually wrong about a few guys each year, so I've tried assuming "I'm wrong" about a particular guy and taking him anyway. It's hit and miss, but SO annoying to be "right" about a dud and taking him anyway that I'm not sure it's worth it.

 

[Matozzo]

I agree. Sometimes you just have to make an educated decision yourself. Don't get me wrong the message board is the best and i always get great advice. However, sometimes when people hear about sitting a great player, we lose sight of what is going on.

Last week, I really wanted to sit keller and start Daniels as SF defense has been absolutely great against TE and GB has been terrible. Everyone said start Keller as he is Farve's favorite. One guy from GB said start Daniels as GB has been terrible.

It didn't really matter because I lost anyway as I played against Westbrook and DeAngelo, but I played Keller and it was the wrong move.

This is what I am going through on Calvin this week. Yes, he scores almost every week. Now he is playing a top def against WRs and his QB is terrible. What makes us think that he is going to get open for a long pass. If he was getting 10 targets a week, then I am fine with it and I would definitely roll the dice. It's a tough call.

 

[bshell27]

If your gut told you to start someone...you wouldn't "not feel right" about starting them. Not sure what you mean there. I think a Costanza strategy would be more like drafting a player who you think is a big injury risk and overrated because you want to do the opposite. I'm usually wrong about a few guys each year, so I've tried assuming "I'm wrong" about a particular guy and taking him anyway. It's hit and miss, but SO annoying to be "right" about a dud and taking him anyway that I'm not sure it's worth it.

I guess what I meant was You have two good players and you start 1. You think you are making the right decision, the message board posters agree and the projections have the guy you are starting higher. BUT, you start the other guy anyway.

 

[Butters]

When I read "Constanza Strategy", I was imagining a strategy where you start a player until he has a big game, then say, "I'M OUT!" and bench him. Start another guy until he has a great game, "I'M OUT", bench him, repeat.

 

[SierraKiloBravo]

When I read "Constanza Strategy", I was imagining a strategy where you start a player until he has a big game, then say, "I'M OUT!" and bench him. Start another guy until he has a great game, "I'M OUT", bench him, repeat.

That's a hallmark of FF strategy ... sell high. Get out on a high note. "That's enough for me everybody!! Good night!!"

 

[barista]

That would be Costanza's "walk off" strategy.

His "everything I do is wrong – so the opposite must be right" strategy is "THE" Costanza strategy.

In other words I should start Derrick Ward this week over Steve Slaton because I would normally start Slaton over Ward...

as opposed to having started Pierre Thomas this week and benching him next week.

 

[drummer]

 

[PewterFan]

Stick with the 'Nothing' strategy.

Nothing! The show will be about nothing.

As in do nothing different then you would if it was Week 7.

 

[Penguins]

I like the theory - wish i would have gone with my gut with Pierre Thomas over Dwayne Bowe....

C'mon Bowe you can get a couple hundered yards and 3 TDs - can't ya....LOL

 

[g5jamz]

If anything...this year is the Constanza strategy year.

If you'd told me ADP would've only gotten in the teens against Detroit...I'd said you were crazy.

If you'd told me early in the season that Ronnie Brown would score 5 TDs against New England...I would've said you're crazy.

Definately a bizarro year.

 

[datonn]

If I've done my homework, I go with my gut. If I haven't done my homework (life got in the way), I go with FBGs' gut. A true Costanza strategy though would be my gut telling me to start/sit a player, and me doing the exact opposite. Not gonna happen. I'd rather trust my gut and lose than go against my gut, lose, and then kick myself for not trusting my instincts.

 

[FantasyTrader]

If I've done my homework, I go with my gut. If I haven't done my homework (life got in the way), I go with FBGs' gut. A true Costanza strategy though would be my gut telling me to start/sit a player, and me doing the exact opposite. Not gonna happen. I'd rather trust my gut and lose than go against my gut, lose, and then kick myself for not trusting my instincts.

I wish I could say I did that. Truth is, I go against my gut all the time. Honestly I don't think it matters much. I'd estimate half the time it works and half the time I get burned. I think the main culprit is strength of schedule. Particularly WR and TE S.O.S.I'd really like to see an indepth study completed that spans a min. 5 years weighing a players average FP scored vs. the defenses FP allowed by position. And more importantly, factoring in the strength of previous skill position players that defense faced which has allowed them to arrive at the numbers they have (i.e - is the Raiders vs TE's S.O.S. really reflective of what the'll do against Fasano when 6 of their games every year are against Gates, Gonzalezs and Denver TE?)

I have absolutely nothing to back this up, but I've always suspected there's sort of a bell curve to the importance of SOS. That for the elite (A.J., Westbrook, Gonzalez) the SOS is almost useless. But as you work your way down toward the mean in the talent pool (Branch, post-Indy Edge, Pennington) - SOS begins bending their stats quite a great deal.

I don't know. What I'm describing would be a TON of work, but I'd sure love to see it. I have a hunch that often, I'm paying the SOS more attention than it really deserves.

 

[chris1969]

I just came in here for the airing of grievances.

BECAUSE I HAVE A LOT OF PROBLEMS WITH YOU PEOPLE!

 

[taz]

If I ever get burned, it's because I too blindly follow rankings/projections rather than going with my gut. Like starting Sammy Morris at flex in a supposed favorable matchup, knowing in the back of my mind that he might be lucky to get 10 carries.

This week Calvin Johnson was ranked higher than Colston in my PPR in several rankings, but I went with Colston, thinking his targets are on the rise and the Bears can be passed on. Gotta trust your instincts.

Happy Festivus!

 

[barista]

I'd really like to see an indepth study completed that spans a min. 5 years weighing a players average FP scored vs. the defenses FP allowed by position. And more importantly, factoring in the strength of previous skill position players that defense faced which has allowed them to arrive at the numbers they have (i.e - is the Raiders vs TE's S.O.S. really reflective of what the'll do against Fasano when 6 of their games every year are against Gates, Gonzalezs and Denver TE?)

I have absolutely nothing to back this up, but I've always suspected there's sort of a bell curve to the importance of SOS. That for the elite (A.J., Westbrook, Gonzalez) the SOS is almost useless. But as you work your way down toward the mean in the talent pool (Branch, post-Indy Edge, Pennington) - SOS begins bending their stats quite a great deal.

GREAT THOUGHT...

 

[chook]

Bosco!