A few differences, imo, are:
Colston has Brees throwing to him (Big diff between Brees and Griese/Simms)
Clayton did most of his damage with Griese at QB, not Simms. Simms looked to Galloway a ton, not Clayton. QB transition from Griese to Simms hurt Clayton's targets, thus, his production. I predicted a 2006 Clayton disappointment last offseason for this very reason. Simms locks onto Galloway and Galloway gets the targets.
Horn will be 35 before next season while Galloway was 33 after Clayton's rookie year. I say this because I think Horn's targets will subside een when healthy
Here is the reasoning, with numbers to match from last June
isclaimer: I know injury claimed some of the blame for Clayton's lower numbers in 2005 compared to his rookie year in 2004.
But, I would like to offer another, alternative reason:
Drop in targets. Period.
Here are the numbers:
In 2004, Clayton had 116 of the 253 Tampa WR targets. Of those targets, he caught 80 passes for 1193 yds and 7 TDs. This was a very good rookie year. Also, Galloway and Jurevicius each missed six of the first 7 games. During this time, Clayton had 55 targets in his first 7 games. The surprising part is that the targets did not decrease when Galloway and Jurevicius came back. Clayton still averaged almost two more targets a game than did Galloway after Galloway came back from the injury.
In 2005, Clayton had 55 targets in 13 games. This is out of a total of WR targets of 270. Of those 55 targets, 32 netting 372 yds and 0 TDs. Oddly enough, Jurevicius departed and Galloway received the bulk of the targets. Galloway had 152 of the 270 total WR targets. In addition, Ike Hillard had 54 targets.
Now, let's look at the difference in targets. The targets for Clayton were almost cut in half on a per game basis. This has to play major part in the reduction in fantasy production. Something changes between 2004 and 2005 to flip-flop the targets.
Some possibilities:
a. Injury: Galloway was still nicked up when he first came back in 2004 and his targets rose as he became healthier. In addition, Clayton's injuries could have made him ineffective and less able to get open in 2005 than in 2004.
b. The addition of Caddy Williams in 2005 altered the routes and play-calling, and therefore the targets. In 2004, Pittman was leading rusher with 219 carries for 926 yds. In 2005, Caddy was the leading rusher 290 carries for 1178 yds.
c. Change of QB. In 2004, Griese played in 11 games and averaged 30 attempts a game. In 2005, Simms was the leading QB, playing in 11 games and and attemped 313 passes. Maybe Griese, as a veteran, gained confidence in the rookie (Clayton) and looked for him even after Galloway and Jurevicius came back. Simms, a young QB, looked for the stable, veteran WR (Galloway) often as a safety net, especially with a rookie RB.
d. Record of Tampa Bay. In 2004, the Bucs were 5-11 and 11-5 in 2005. This, in addition to the drafting of Caddy, could change the game plan.
In summary, I think some of the blame for the decrease in Clayton's fantasy production was due to injury. But, there are many other factors at work, too. In trying to define fantasy production for 2006, and beyond, I think we cannot assume that Clayton will automatically resume the position as focal point in the passing game, and thereby getting the largest chunk of the targets.
The targets will tell us in 2006 which year, 2004 or 2005, was the fluke.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...6784&st=150 post 165
ETA: Clayton had 65 targets in 12 weeks in 2006 while Galloway has had 131 targets in 15 games. I expect Colston to lead the Saints in targets in the future, just like he has this year.
