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Counter-play strategy? (1 Viewer)

So here's the deal: I have Case Keenum and my opponent has Andre Johnson. Both of us are playing for the last playoff spot. If I lose, I'm done. If Case has a good day, there's a good chance he'll be feeding Andre as he has been whenever he's on the field.

We've all been here before or seen these scenarios. It usually will occur for QB/WR or QB/DEF.

What's your stance for this scenario? Do you discount it and just play the QB regardless? For future reference, would you bench said QB if your opponent had two receivers for the same team or a WR/TE combination?

 

Ignoratio Elenchi

Footballguy
In before the onslaught of people telling you to "start whoever will score the most points."

Of course it's something to take into consideration. It depends who you'd replace Keenum with, as well as generally how the rest of your lineup stacks up against your opponent. If you think that the rest of your team is better than your opponent's, then maybe you hedge against a big day by Andre Johnson by starting Keenum; alternately if you think you're a big underdog, then maybe you start a different QB, since it's unlikely Keenum will blow up without Andre having a good day as well.

 

biju

Footballguy
In before the onslaught of people telling you to "start whoever will score the most points."

Of course it's something to take into consideration. It depends who you'd replace Keenum with, as well as generally how the rest of your lineup stacks up against your opponent. If you think that the rest of your team is better than your opponent's, then maybe you hedge against a big day by Andre Johnson by starting Keenum; alternately if you think you're a big underdog, then maybe you start a different QB, since it's unlikely Keenum will blow up without Andre having a good day as well.
:goodposting:

When making a decision about players I tend to dislike the idea of "who is going to score you more points". Go with consistency if you're going to win (and your opponent needs some big days to win) or the boom/bust if you believe you need to make up ground and this is the most appropriate place to make it up.

 
Who's your other QB? Play the better of the two.
It's Eli. I didn't mention him because I didn't want to so much make this thread as a who-to-start thread as more of a philosophy thread. I've had this scenario earlier in the season with Cutler and my opponent having Marshall, in which I lost. I wonder if I made the wrong decision then and recentcy bias makes me say sit Keenum and start Eli. I would've lost anyways, but that's not the point. The point is did I make the right decision by starting the overall better QB / better matchup, or should I start another QB in hopes my original QB bombs?

In before the onslaught of people telling you to "start whoever will score the most points."

Of course it's something to take into consideration. It depends who you'd replace Keenum with, as well as generally how the rest of your lineup stacks up against your opponent. If you think that the rest of your team is better than your opponent's, then maybe you hedge against a big day by Andre Johnson by starting Keenum; alternately if you think you're a big underdog, then maybe you start a different QB, since it's unlikely Keenum will blow up without Andre having a good day as well.
Interesting idea about the favored team. My team is the underdog and I've only outscored this guy maybe 3 or so weeks out of the year thus far. Is this your personal standard or more of a thought?

 

davidwb

Footballguy
If Keenum throws 3 TDs to Johnson today, he'll do it whether or not he's your starting QB. The question is whether Keenum is the best choice for you at QB today -- is there anyone else in the WW who would likely score more points for you today, or not? If not, then you have to start Keenum (and hope that he throws a couple of TDs to Tate and Graham).

 

Kool-Aid Larry

Footballguy
If Keenum throws 3 TDs to Johnson today, he'll do it whether or not he's your starting QB. The question is whether Keenum is the best choice for you at QB today -- is there anyone else in the WW who would likely score more points for you today, or not? If not, then you have to start Keenum (and hope that he throws a couple of TDs to Tate and Graham).
yeah, if the guy knows how many td he throws, and how many eli throws, then it's a pretty easy decision.

 
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Zow

Footballguy
Disagree completely with a counter-play strategy.

Agree completely though with evaluating boom/bust. For example, I think there are different legitimate answers to a lineup call like Tolzien/Alex Smith this week (go with the latter if you're favored, former if you are underdog).

 

Ignoratio Elenchi

Footballguy
I think people forget that your goal in head-to-head fantasy football is not to score the most points possible. Your goal is to score more points than your opponent.

 

Zow

Footballguy
I think people forget that your goal in head-to-head fantasy football is not to score the most points possible. Your goal is to score more points than your opponent.
But since you cannot control what your opponent or his players do… these goals are usually one in the same.

 

12punch

Footballguy
Well, if you know how many points everybody's scoring don't hold back on us.

Post them up and help the guy out

 

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