Crabtree will be a bust (1 Viewer)

[cstu]

Rogers did put up 22/243/3 in his first 5 games before blowing out his collarbone twice, and looked good doing it. He finally saw the field again in 2005 when he got suspended for ganja and generally just sucked. Certainly not a stud, but certainly not a bust pre-injury/bonghit/whatever. With such a small sample size I think the jury will always be out with him.

Rogers was a case of a guy with all-world talent but who didn't have the desire to be an NFL player. Had he not been injured, I think would have had a decent career since he would have kept his head in the game. However, the injuries gave him too much time to take his mind off of football and made him realize he really didn't care for it. Even when he tried to make a comeback he did it with half-assed effort that made it clear to be that he liked the idea of being an NFL WR a lot more than actually playing the game.

 

[TheFanatic]

Rogers did put up 22/243/3 in his first 5 games before blowing out his collarbone twice, and looked good doing it. He finally saw the field again in 2005 when he got suspended for ganja and generally just sucked. Certainly not a stud, but certainly not a bust pre-injury/bonghit/whatever. With such a small sample size I think the jury will always be out with him.

Rogers was a case of a guy with all-world talent but who didn't have the desire to be an NFL player. Had he not been injured, I think would have had a decent career since he would have kept his head in the game. However, the injuries gave him too much time to take his mind off of football and made him realize he really didn't care for it. Even when he tried to make a comeback he did it with half-assed effort that made it clear to be that he liked the idea of being an NFL WR a lot more than actually playing the game.

So would you say that CR was a hit or a miss as a top 10 pick?

 

[Max Power]

Rogers did put up 22/243/3 in his first 5 games before blowing out his collarbone twice, and looked good doing it. He finally saw the field again in 2005 when he got suspended for ganja and generally just sucked. Certainly not a stud, but certainly not a bust pre-injury/bonghit/whatever. With such a small sample size I think the jury will always be out with him.

Rogers was a case of a guy with all-world talent but who didn't have the desire to be an NFL player. Had he not been injured, I think would have had a decent career since he would have kept his head in the game. However, the injuries gave him too much time to take his mind off of football and made him realize he really didn't care for it. Even when he tried to make a comeback he did it with half-assed effort that made it clear to be that he liked the idea of being an NFL WR a lot more than actually playing the game.

So would you say that CR was a hit or a miss as a top 10 pick?

swing and a miss

 

[Zoomanji]

I think when you draft a WR in the 1st round you expect a Pro-Bowl Caliber player.

Some of the guys you highlighted were passable NFL players for very short times (Westbrook, Michael) but a guy like Reggie Williams for where he was taken is a bust. If he was a mid 2nd rounder I would agree but not a top 15 guy

We have different definitions of bust. If I take a player in the first, I 100% expect him to contribute. The later a player goes, the risk in whether he contributes or not goes up. If a player in the first round doesn't contribute (a la Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, JJ Stokes) they are busts. But think about what you are saying, if every first round pick has to be a Pro Bowler or else he's a bust, then MOST first round picks, regardless of position, are busts.Reggie Williams, is entering his fifth year? I would agree on him, but in '07 he looked like he might be a very good #2 WR. Last season the whole team went to pot - is it his fault? What if he rebounds this season, puts up 900-1000 yards? Is he still a bust? I don't think so.

Why I say didn't pan out, but not bust, for a guy like Taylor is because he was the teams #2 WR for a few years. He wasn't the #1 they wanted, but he still had a few good seasons.

I would be willing to down-grade from Pro-bowler to "pretty good" and most of the guys don't qualify.Reggie Williams as an example has 4 mediocre and 1 decent year (2007) and has probably managed to get himself out of the league with his latest legal issues.

He is Not what I would look for as a GM with a Top 10-15 pick

 

[5Rings]

We have different definitions of bust. If I take a player in the first, I 100% expect him to contribute. The later a player goes, the risk in whether he contributes or not goes up. If a player in the first round doesn't contribute (a la Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, JJ Stokes) they are busts. But think about what you are saying, if every first round pick has to be a Pro Bowler or else he's a bust, then MOST first round picks, regardless of position, are busts.

I hate JJ Stokes. He was and is an incredible waste of talent. He was a talented yet timid #### who refused to fight for the ball and was afraid of contact. I hate the guy.That said, by your definition, he was not "a bust". He did indeed contribute as a good WR3 and decent WR2 for some very good 49er teams.

HTH

 

[Garrett]

Crabtree will probably take himself out of games for wardrobe updates. You can't wear the same color shoes every quarter; have to be fashionable.

 

[chinawildman]

Forget 1st round WRs, let's talk biletnikoff winners every year:

1994 Bobby Engram Penn State

1995 Terry Glenn Ohio State

1996 Marcus Harris Wyoming

1997 Randy Moss Marshall

1998 Troy Edwards Louisiana Tech

1999 Troy Walters Stanford

2000 Antonio Bryant Pittsburgh

2001 Josh Reed LSU

2002 Charles Rogers Michigan State

2003 Larry Fitzgerald Pittsburgh

2004 Braylon Edwards Michigan

2005 Mike Hass Oregon State

2006 Calvin Johnson Georgia Tech

2007 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech

2008 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech

I will remove Haas, Walters, and Harris from this argument because they were never projected to be great WRs in the NFL and their draft positions reflect as much. That leaves us with Rogers and Edwards as the big busts from this sample set. That leaves 8 guys who range from productive in the NFL to superstar status. 8 out of 10 is good enough odds for me.

 

[cstu]

Rogers did put up 22/243/3 in his first 5 games before blowing out his collarbone twice, and looked good doing it. He finally saw the field again in 2005 when he got suspended for ganja and generally just sucked. Certainly not a stud, but certainly not a bust pre-injury/bonghit/whatever. With such a small sample size I think the jury will always be out with him.

Rogers was a case of a guy with all-world talent but who didn't have the desire to be an NFL player. Had he not been injured, I think would have had a decent career since he would have kept his head in the game. However, the injuries gave him too much time to take his mind off of football and made him realize he really didn't care for it. Even when he tried to make a comeback he did it with half-assed effort that made it clear to be that he liked the idea of being an NFL WR a lot more than actually playing the game.

So would you say that CR was a hit or a miss as a top 10 pick?

What I would say is that you can measure talent but it's a lot harder to measure heart and a love for the game. There was no doubt in my mind when he was drafted that he could be a top WR in the league based on his talent. That was shown in his play his rookie year (with Joey Harrington at QB, no less) before he broke his collarbone. Talent certainly wasn't the reason he failed in the NFL.

 

[cstu]

Forget 1st round WRs, let's talk biletnikoff winners every year:

1994 Bobby Engram Penn State - 2nd round

1995 Terry Glenn Ohio State #7

1996 Marcus Harris Wyoming

1997 Randy Moss Marshall #21

1998 Troy Edwards Louisiana Tech #13

1999 Troy Walters Stanford

2000 Antonio Bryant Pittsburgh - 2nd round

2001 Josh Reed LSU - 2nd round

2002 Charles Rogers Michigan State #2

2003 Larry Fitzgerald Pittsburgh #3

2004 Braylon Edwards Michigan #3

2005 Mike Hass Oregon State

2006 Calvin Johnson Georgia Tech #2

2007 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech

2008 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech #10

I will remove Haas, Walters, and Harris from this argument because they were never projected to be great WRs in the NFL and their draft positions reflect as much. That leaves us with Rogers and Edwards as the big busts from this sample set. That leaves 8 guys who range from productive in the NFL to superstar status. 8 out of 10 is good enough odds for me.

Most of the Biletnikoff winners who have become good/great WR's went in the top 3 picks in the draft. There were just three who were picked in the 1st round, but not in the top 3 picks - Glenn, Moss and Edwards. - Glenn was drafted higher than Crabtree, had a good career but never had a top-10 season

- Moss only slipped because of personal issues, not questions about his talent

- Edwards was a complete bust, drafted at #13

 

[offdee]

Crabtree will probably take himself out of games for wardrobe updates. You can't wear the same color shoes every quarter; have to be fashionable.

If you look good, you play good.

 

[Tanner9919]

Pretty well thought out argument. I disagree and think he's going to be an elite WR (maybe not quite Fitzy/Calvin, but top 6ish) for years. The thing that strikes me about him is that he seems to have amazing instincts, the stuff you can't teach. He will come down with the ball. He has amazing physical ability and the intangibles that make one great IMO, which is all you can ask for in a prospect.

You hit the nail on the head. Terrell lacked the instincts that Crabtree shows..he flat-out abused defenders...and as far as the other stuff goes, didn't a certain Randy Moss drop in the draft, when pundits said the same things about him,his character, the college he attended and so on?

I'm not saying Crabtree is another Calvin Johnson, but I'm willing to bet he's going to be pretty close..

 

[Cripster]

I honestly don't know if this guy will be a bust or not. However, if your talking fantasy football and more specifically non-ppr dynasty leagues, I would not take him till around 1.6 to insure against the bust risk. Its the same concept the Rams and Seahawks used in the NFL draft. Those teams needed skill position players ( Rams WR and possibly QB) Seahawks (QB and RB). But, if you pick that early, you need a produtive player that will make you better. They may not be the best player, but the odds favor you having a productive player .

 

[Badm]

I have been studying Crabtree, since he is a guy I am looking at hard for my first pick of Dynasty League (PPR). Need help at WR.

Positives... The guys runs great routes, His hands are like glue and his body is like butter...nothing sticks... His YAC is impressive and from what I have seen, his hands are awesome.

Negatives...The only negative I see is he really doesn't look that fast. He appears to be quick, but overall speed seems to be lacking and will lack in the NFL.

I think being on SF, his attributes will be highlighted. What I was trying to figure out, is historically, have there been WRs, without blazing speed, but had all other positives going for them? Would Holt or Jerrry Rice fit this description. I can see Hill getting 3-5 yards passes to him and him stretching them into 8-10 yard gainers, but to be elite, he needs to have that breakaway speed, and from what I have seen on videos, I don't see him blowing by the defenses in college when he is in open field. I saw many DBs in college catch up to him on open field.

The other thing that concerns me is since he isn't fast or doesn't appear to be, can he take a hit? He looked good avoiding the big ones in college, the butter affect I suppose.....

 

[puckalicious]

I have been studying Crabtree, since he is a guy I am looking at hard for my first pick of Dynasty League (PPR). Need help at WR.

Positives... The guys runs great routes, His hands are like glue and his body is like butter...nothing sticks... His YAC is impressive and from what I have seen, his hands are awesome.

Negatives...The only negative I see is he really doesn't look that fast. He appears to be quick, but overall speed seems to be lacking and will lack in the NFL.

I think being on SF, his attributes will be highlighted. What I was trying to figure out, is historically, have there been WRs, without blazing speed, but had all other positives going for them? Would Holt or Jerrry Rice fit this description. I can see Hill getting 3-5 yards passes to him and him stretching them into 8-10 yard gainers, but to be elite, he needs to have that breakaway speed, and from what I have seen on videos, I don't see him blowing by the defenses in college when he is in open field. I saw many DBs in college catch up to him on open field.

The other thing that concerns me is since he isn't fast or doesn't appear to be, can he take a hit? He looked good avoiding the big ones in college, the butter affect I suppose.....

That describes Fitzgerald to a "T". Very talented, lacks blazing speed, but his speed is more than adequate in a game. I think Crabtree has similar attributes, but I don't necessarily think he'll be as successful. But I could imagine Crabtree doing as well as Fitz if he took his exact spot in time as a WR on ARI in 2004-2008.

 

[switz]

Forget 1st round WRs, let's talk biletnikoff winners every year:

1994 Bobby Engram Penn State - 2nd round

1995 Terry Glenn Ohio State #7

1996 Marcus Harris Wyoming

1997 Randy Moss Marshall #21

1998 Troy Edwards Louisiana Tech #13

1999 Troy Walters Stanford

2000 Antonio Bryant Pittsburgh - 2nd round

2001 Josh Reed LSU - 2nd round

2002 Charles Rogers Michigan State #2

2003 Larry Fitzgerald Pittsburgh #3

2004 Braylon Edwards Michigan #3

2005 Mike Hass Oregon State

2006 Calvin Johnson Georgia Tech #2

2007 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech

2008 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech #10

I will remove Haas, Walters, and Harris from this argument because they were never projected to be great WRs in the NFL and their draft positions reflect as much. That leaves us with Rogers and Edwards as the big busts from this sample set. That leaves 8 guys who range from productive in the NFL to superstar status. 8 out of 10 is good enough odds for me.

Most of the Biletnikoff winners who have become good/great WR's went in the top 3 picks in the draft. There were just three who were picked in the 1st round, but not in the top 3 picks - Glenn, Moss and Edwards. - Glenn was drafted higher than Crabtree, had a good career but never had a top-10 season

- Moss only slipped because of personal issues, not questions about his talent

- Edwards was a complete bust, drafted at #13

Antonio Bryant was great at times, though Parcells hated him. He looked very very good in TB last year.

 

[chuck'sliddell]

Forget 1st round WRs, let's talk biletnikoff winners every year:1994 Bobby Engram Penn State1995 Terry Glenn Ohio State1996 Marcus Harris Wyoming1997 Randy Moss Marshall1998 Troy Edwards Louisiana Tech1999 Troy Walters Stanford2000 Antonio Bryant Pittsburgh2001 Josh Reed LSU2002 Charles Rogers Michigan State2003 Larry Fitzgerald Pittsburgh2004 Braylon Edwards Michigan2005 Mike Hass Oregon State2006 Calvin Johnson Georgia Tech2007 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech2008 Michael Crabtree Texas TechI will remove Haas, Walters, and Harris from this argument because they were never projected to be great WRs in the NFL and their draft positions reflect as much. That leaves us with Rogers and Edwards as the big busts from this sample set. That leaves 8 guys who range from productive in the NFL to superstar status. 8 out of 10 is good enough odds for me.

Good FactsAlso, Who is the only person on this list to have won the award twice? Who was the last to do it twice..in a row? I guess he should've gone back and tried to win it again.

 

[Knobs]

Well...he's now signed. Shouldn't be long before he starts showing some glimpses of his greatness.

 

[RockHard]

Well...he's now signed. Shouldn't be long before he starts showing some glimpses of his greatness.

Statistically, what are your expectations for the remainder of this season?

 

[corpcow]

Forget 1st round WRs, let's talk biletnikoff winners every year:1994 Bobby Engram Penn State1995 Terry Glenn Ohio State1996 Marcus Harris Wyoming1997 Randy Moss Marshall1998 Troy Edwards Louisiana Tech1999 Troy Walters Stanford2000 Antonio Bryant Pittsburgh2001 Josh Reed LSU2002 Charles Rogers Michigan State2003 Larry Fitzgerald Pittsburgh2004 Braylon Edwards Michigan2005 Mike Hass Oregon State2006 Calvin Johnson Georgia Tech2007 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech2008 Michael Crabtree Texas TechI will remove Haas, Walters, and Harris from this argument because they were never projected to be great WRs in the NFL and their draft positions reflect as much. That leaves us with Rogers and Edwards as the big busts from this sample set. That leaves 8 guys who range from productive in the NFL to superstar status. 8 out of 10 is good enough odds for me.

Good FactsAlso, Who is the only person on this list to have won the award twice? Who was the last to do it twice..in a row? I guess he should've gone back and tried to win it again.

And, frankly, it's tough to call Edwards a "bust" - he has shown glimpses and, let's be honest, didn't exactly have the best supporting cast around him. It will be interesting to see how he does with the Jets this year and possibly beyond.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Statistically, what are your expectations for the remainder of this season?

Edit: they announced he'll only play slot, and only on 3rd downs. So probably not much.

 

[Knobs]

Well...he's now signed. Shouldn't be long before he starts showing some glimpses of his greatness.

Statistically, what are your expectations for the remainder of this season?

This season I really don't expect much. I'd think 500 yards would be his upside for this season. A couple touchdowns at most. I really would not roster him in anything but massive redraft leagues.But I do believe he'll flash some talent (if he has any). I'm not really looking what kind of numbers he puts up - I'm much more interested in seeing HOW he puts them up.

 

[FFCrazy]

I grabbed him off of waivers this morning when I heard the news.

I might have to drop him for bench space due to byes, but I figure it's worth holding onto him for a few weeks and see if anything pans out.

The 1st thing I noticed when I looked him up, was SF vs Detroit in week 16......you never know.

 

[Doug B]

And, frankly, it's tough to call Edwards a "bust" - he has shown glimpses and, let's be honest, didn't exactly have the best supporting cast around him. It will be interesting to see how he does with the Jets this year and possibly beyond.

That threw me off, too ... I think he was referring to Troy Edwards instead of Braylon.

 

[cstu]

Forget 1st round WRs, let's talk biletnikoff winners every year:1994 Bobby Engram Penn State1995 Terry Glenn Ohio State1996 Marcus Harris Wyoming1997 Randy Moss Marshall1998 Troy Edwards Louisiana Tech1999 Troy Walters Stanford2000 Antonio Bryant Pittsburgh2001 Josh Reed LSU2002 Charles Rogers Michigan State2003 Larry Fitzgerald Pittsburgh2004 Braylon Edwards Michigan2005 Mike Hass Oregon State2006 Calvin Johnson Georgia Tech2007 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech2008 Michael Crabtree Texas TechI will remove Haas, Walters, and Harris from this argument because they were never projected to be great WRs in the NFL and their draft positions reflect as much. That leaves us with Rogers and Edwards as the big busts from this sample set. That leaves 8 guys who range from productive in the NFL to superstar status. 8 out of 10 is good enough odds for me.

Good FactsAlso, Who is the only person on this list to have won the award twice? Who was the last to do it twice..in a row? I guess he should've gone back and tried to win it again.

Who put up those numbers in a gimmick offense?

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Forget 1st round WRs, let's talk biletnikoff winners every year:1994 Bobby Engram Penn State1995 Terry Glenn Ohio State1996 Marcus Harris Wyoming1997 Randy Moss Marshall1998 Troy Edwards Louisiana Tech1999 Troy Walters Stanford2000 Antonio Bryant Pittsburgh2001 Josh Reed LSU2002 Charles Rogers Michigan State2003 Larry Fitzgerald Pittsburgh2004 Braylon Edwards Michigan2005 Mike Hass Oregon State2006 Calvin Johnson Georgia Tech2007 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech2008 Michael Crabtree Texas TechI will remove Haas, Walters, and Harris from this argument because they were never projected to be great WRs in the NFL and their draft positions reflect as much. That leaves us with Rogers and Edwards as the big busts from this sample set. That leaves 8 guys who range from productive in the NFL to superstar status. 8 out of 10 is good enough odds for me.

Good FactsAlso, Who is the only person on this list to have won the award twice? Who was the last to do it twice..in a row? I guess he should've gone back and tried to win it again.

Who put up those numbers in a gimmick offense?

Who did it as a redshirt freshman and sophomore without having played the position in high school?

 

[LittlePhatty]

Who put up those numbers in a gimmick offense?

That would be a more valid point if we were talking about a QB. Graham Harrell is playing in Canada now.Crabtree has a shot at being good in the NFL. It's not guaranteed that he WILL, but he has enough talent to have a shot at it. We'll see.