Cracking the Code: Developing Auction Values for your League (1 Viewer)

[azmat]

I have used this method successfully for the past decade in my home league and wanted to share in case it provides value to others. Examples for my league are in parenthesis:

Using previous year's data, take the first ADP for each position that goes for $1 in the draft. (QB21, RB52, WR55, TE18).​

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Using previous year's data, list the points per game for each position by ADP and the percentage that each ppg is relative to the sum of the overall position.​

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Calculate the VORP for each player by subtracting the respective ppg from the ADP from the first player in that position that goes for $1. (QB1 = 30.3 - 16.1 = 14.2 VORP)​

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Add up the VORPs for each of the positions (QB=102, RB=288, WR=287, TE=51).​

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Calculate the VORP percentage by position (QB=102/729=14%)​

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Multiply total auction dollars by this percentage for each position.​

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For each position, multiply this number by number of players you plan to roster for each starting position.​

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Sum up the four numbers for QB, RB, WR, TE​

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Take this number and divide by your total auction dollars.​

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Take the total VORP for each position and divide by number from step 9. This is the number of auction dollars that should be allocated to each position by the league.​

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Finally, take the percentage of each player from step 2 and multiply the respective position value from step 10. This is the value that each player should be assigned.​

I like this method, because it leverages historical data, with ADP and quantity of starting positions. Happy to share more details if there is interest or answer any questions.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks for posting.

So I'm clear, what is the final product you're looking to achieve with this?

Can you give us a sample of what you wind up with when you're done?

 

[RenegadeRoy]

*insert gif of woman looking confused as math swirls around her*

 

[azmat]

Hi Joe and thank you for your questions. Long time fan of your content!

The final product is an actual auction value for each player with a sample below and happy to share the full workbook if needed.

The first column is overlayed by rankings from footballguys. Other definitions are as follows:

HAV: avg historical auction value for position from home league
PPG: avg points per game for position from home league
VORP: value of replacement player (first player auctioned for $1 in position)
$PV: percentage of value that a give player has vs overall value of position
AAV: the value the player should go for based on VORP and league settings
DIF: differential of actual value and avg historical auction value

For the example below, it is shown that for my league, QBs are overvalued until QB8 and there is no great value in the position at any ADP. For my league, the greatest value is in WRs and late RBs.

The biggest value from the spreadsheet is that it is based on your specific league settings (starting roster, scoring system, historical auctions, etc.) and also shows where value lies for each position based on historical league data.

	HAV	PPG	VORP	%PV	AAV	DIF
Q1	37.6	30.3	14.2	14%	20.3	-17.3
Q2	25.0	27.1	11.0	11%	15.7	-9.3
Q3	20.0	26.3	10.2	10%	14.5	-5.5
Q4	17.6	24.8	8.7	8%	12.4	-5.2
Q5	15.6	24.2	8.1	8%	11.5	-4.1
Q6	14.2	23.0	6.9	7%	9.9	-4.3
Q7	12.2	22.6	6.5	6%	9.2	-3.0
Q8	8.8	22.0	5.9	6%	8.4	-0.4
Q9	7.6	21.3	5.2	5%	7.4	-0.2
Q10	6.2	20.8	4.7	5%	6.7	0.5
Q11	5.8	20.2	4.1	4%	5.8	0.0
Q12	5.0	19.7	3.6	4%	5.1	0.1
Q13	4.2	19.3	3.2	3%	4.6	0.4
Q14	3.6	18.7	2.6	3%	3.7	0.1
Q15	3.2	18.1	2.0	2%	2.9	-0.3
Q16	2.8	18.0	1.9	2%	2.7	-0.1
Q17	2.4	17.8	1.7	2%	2.4	0.0
Q18	2.2	17.3	1.2	1%	1.7	-0.5
Q19	2.0	16.9	0.8	1%	1.1	-0.9
Q20	1.2	16.4	0.3	0%	0.5	-0.7
Q21	1.0	16.1	0.0	0%	0.0	-1.0