Crazy Early Dynasty Rookie PPR Draft Board (2023 Updated Rankings Page 5) (2 Viewers)

[Biabreakable]

Gibson got (a lot) less touches in 2019 than Gainwell

Yup that is what I am learning.

That school/offense has produced some eye popping numbers for their skill players.

Do you think Gainwell is better than Gibson or Henderson?

 

[MAC_32]

Yup that is what I am learning.

That school/offense has produced some eye popping numbers for their skill players.

Do you think Gainwell is better than Gibson or Henderson?

As a prospect I think he's a safer bet to last in the league (due to the passing game) than both of them, but is less likely to hit. I think his profile is more of a 1b in a committee, ideally in a scheme like zbs that keeps him in space. It'd take the right combo of situation and draft capital for me to consider him before the mid-late 2nd.

 

[Biabreakable]

As a prospect I think he's a safer bet to last in the league (due to the passing game) than both of them, but is less likely to hit. I think his profile is more of a 1b in a committee, ideally in a scheme like zbs that keeps him in space. It'd take the right combo of situation and draft capital for me to consider him before the mid-late 2nd.

The coaches did use him over Gibson by a lot. So at least they thought he was better.

The yards per carry are not quite as big as with Gibson and Henderson, but again this is with more touches, so that tends to happen. He did have a 2k season. Thats good. I havent watched him yet so no opinion on that.

 

[massraider]

1.01   Najee Harris   RB1 (Tier 1)   6-2   229   Alabama--I don't like the upright style (injuries), and don't like him not working out. 

1.04   Javonte Williams   RB3 (Tier 1)   5-10   220   North Carolina--I love the size, and really hope he gets a nice landing spot. If so, I might bump him up.

1.05   Kyle Pitts   TE1 (Tier 1)   6-6   240   Florida--I'm at 1.6 in one league, and hope my league subscribes to the "But a Tight End" school of thinking.  

1.06   Trevor Lawrence   QB1 (Tier 1)   6-6   220   Clemson--Agrey e here.  I'm picking late in the 1st, I'll let someone else draft WRs with holes, and slap a nice double to left center, and get this guy.  

1.07   Jaylen Waddle   WR2 (Tier 2)   5-10   183   Alabama--Like him a lot, but you're paying 6'2'' prices for a 5'9'' WR.  Likely to be TD-dependent

1.10   Rondale Moore   WR5 (Tier 3)   5-7   181   Purdue--I have come to believe that the reason we never see these guys work in the NFL is that NFL coaches want to run their offense.  In college, you have a Rondale Moore, who is sooo much better than any other player on offense, you scheme him.  In the NFL, you want to run your offense, and not have to worry that your 3rd WR won't be seen by the QB on a 15 yard out.  I'll absolutely take a Terrace Marshall over him, and probably a 49ers Justin Fields.  

1.11   Kenneth Gainwell   RB4 (Tier 2)   5-11   201   Memphis--I don't know enough about him, on my list to learn about

1.12   Terrace Marshall   WR6 (Tier 3)   6-3   201   LSU--I have a pick at 1.10, and expect this guy to be gone, as I think he leapfrogs some other guys once the draft happens.  He's my pick for biggest ADP riser.

2.04   Jermar Jefferson   RB6 (Tier 2)   5-10   210   Oregon State--Had a rough pro day.  There are going to be UDFA with better metrics.  Hoping something was off.  His pro day, may affect his draft stock, and knock him from this round, maybe making him a nice 3rd rounder.  
 

2.05   Zach Wilson   QB3 (Tier 2)   6-3   209   BYU--Literally ignoring any Jets QB till there is evidence that this barge is heading in the right direction.  

2.06   Trey Sermon   RB7 (Tier 2)   6-0   221   Ohio State--For the kind of player he is, he tested better than most.  Looks like a nice 2nd round target, at the moment.  

2.10   Kadarius Toney   WR8 (Tier 4)   5-11   194   Florida--There is a decent amount to not like about Toney.  He does have the stuff to be a slot WR that gets a lot of catches.  He gets the right system, the right coaches, and wants to be great, could be a homerun.  I won't trade up for him, but I think he'll probably be th last guy in a tier for me, before a big drop off.  

3.01   Dyami Brown   WR11 (Tier 4)   6-0   185   North Carolina--I'm a fan.  2nd round target over RB with obvious holes.  Not too many weaknesses, just stuff we haven't seen him do.
3.08   Khalil Herbert   RB11 (Tier 3)   5-9   205   Virginia Tech--This guy'll be a target for me.  

3.10   Ihmir Smith-Marsette   WR15 (Tier 5)   6-2   186   Iowa
I feel like we may all be whiffing on Ihmir Smith-Marsette.  He profiles similar to Tylan Wallace, who projects considerably higher.  I feel like Smith-Marsette could end up being the steal of the draft.  Smith-Marsette's numbers at Iowa were not spectacular, but that may be more of a consequence of playing in a conservative offense than a reflection of Smith-Marsette's abilities.  Smith-Marsette may have to cut his teeth on special teams initially, but his speed, versatility and ball-tracking skills could earn him a role on offense.  Smith-Marsette's season did not end well.  He was arrested in November for driving intoxicated, plus he suffered a season-ending high ankle sprain doing a front flip as he celebrated a TD.  smh  (Pro Day Update:  Smith-Marsette addressed his November drunk driving incident, and he at least said all of the right things.  Hopefully, he learns from this moving forward.  Fully recovered from the high-ankle sprain, Smith-Marsette reportedly ran a 4.43-40 and had an impressive 1.44-10-yard split, which is incredibly fast.)
Range of Comparisons: Markus Wheaton/Trevor Davis, with Christian Kirk/Darius Slayton upside
3.11   Rhamondre Stevenson   RB12 (Tier 4)   6-0   232   Oklahoma--I would love him to become a thing, but not optimistic.  

4.04   Seth Williams   WR17 (Tier 6)   6-3   224   Auburn--I bet this guy rises too.  I'll slam this pick at this spot.  

4.05   Amari Rodgers   WR18 (Tier 6)   5-10   210   Clemson--This guy too.  

4.10   Jaelon Darden   WR22 (Tier 7)   5-9   170   North Texas--I would very much like to see him and Cade Johnson become a thing.  Either way, I'll let someone else take slot guys in the 1st round, I'll take them in the 4th/5th.  
 

4.12   Josh Imatorbhebhe   WR23 (Tier 7)   6-2   220   Illinois--Think he had a freaky pro day.  Insane vertical, I think.  

5.03   Hunter Long   TE4 (Tier 3)   6-5   240   Boston College--Not a bad value here, I think.  
 

Chris Evans   RB20   5-11 (Tier 6)   216   Michigan--Good UDFA target. Mystery as to why he disappeared.  Maybe he banged the coach's daughter, and you get Arian Foster.  
 

WR:
Jacob Harris   WR   6-5   29   UCF--I have heard coaches asked him about playing TE.  Could do worse on your taxi squad, try and land a Darren Waller

 

[MAC_32]

The coaches did use him over Gibson by a lot. So at least they thought he was better.

The yards per carry are not quite as big as with Gibson and Henderson, but again this is with more touches, so that tends to happen. He did have a 2k season. Thats good. I havent watched him yet so no opinion on that.

Maybe, but I think it's quite possible they just saw him as more reliable in their scheme. Watch him on tape and I think you'll see that. Adept in pass pro and functional as a receiver. Their run scheme goes wide, getting him in space, then where the crease develops he cuts and goes. When it doesn't he is fearless running into contact and gets what he can, which may not necessarily be a good thing. And since he's not a game breaker in the open field he's more reliant on volume than his contemporaries.

 

[socrates]

Thanks for this. I hope you have gained something from the exercise.  Indeed.  I only wish I had my pre-NFL draft list from 2020 to compare.

I have some disagreements of course.  That is a big part of the process, and it is what makes "prognosticating" fun!

First of all it seems you have Jamar Chase as the 2nd best players out of both draft classes and a higher grade than Swift. In some ways I can understand that but putting this in a fantasy focus RB > WR and I am guessing Swifts ADP is and will be higher than Chase. In my opinion Ceedee Lamb is the best WR prospect from both classes (yes I know Justin Jefferson outperformed him) and I still did not rank him ahead of Swift last year.  I have Chase third behind Taylor and Harris.  I was (and still am) a big fan of Swift, and I think a fair argument could be made either way (I do not assign a number grading, or anything like that).  I have Chase solidly ahead of Lamb, and Lamb was my clear WR1 last season.  Lance Zierlein compared this WR class to last season's, and he came away with this take:  "For what it's worth, I actually have the top three receivers in 2021 ranked above the top three receivers from last year, both as a group and individually."  I am not quite on board with that, but nearly.  If you include Pitts in this 2021 class of pass catchers, however, I believe this is a stronger class at the top, it is nearly as powerful in the mid-late rounds, and it may be deeper at the back end.

I think Travis Etienne is a better RB than CEH although I have compared their play styles before. I had ETN as possibly better than Taylor and I guess I am still on the fence about that. I had CEH as the 5th best RB of 2020 prior to KC drafting him before any other RB. He only vaulted the other 4 2020 RB post draft because of the landing spot. I do not think he is the same talent level as ETN.  I was not "top 3 high" on CEH until the NFL Draft, so my ranking reflects his draft destination in KC.  I agree with you that Etienne is the better prospect if we strip away draft capital and destination.  I think I was a bit too generous to CEH calling that even.

To have Pitts as even with Ceedee Lamb also doesn't work for me. I prefer Lamb over any and all non RB from both draft classes.  I really like Lamb, but you are obviously higher on him than I am.  I get that Pitts is a TE, and I have been urging caution, but consider the advantage fantasy GMs have had with Kelce.  It is like having a cheat code for your fantasy team.

At 6 you have Trevor Lawrence being the same grade as Cam Akers. Again unless this is a superflex league these players will be no where near each other in terms of ADP.  I expect some pushback on my Trevor Lawrence ranking, and much depends on a fantasy team's own roster needs, but an elite QB can lock down the position for well over a decade.  I drafted Peyton Manning in Dynasty.  He played for 18 seasons, most of those at a fantasy QB1 level.  Trevor Lawrence will likely still be leading fantasy franchises to titles long after Cam Akers has hung up his cleats.  Even if you peer just two or three seasons ahead in your fantasy crystal ball, statistically, what are the odds Akers is a RB1 vs. Trevor Lawrence being a QB1?  

At 7 you have Waddle as better than Jeudy and I disagree with that. I think Jeudy is the better WR of the two.  Jeudy was and is high on my draft boards, but I actually think Waddle is the more dynamic receiver.

I cant really argue against Justin Jefferson after he set records. I greatly under estimated what Jefferson can do in a similar fashion as I did with Michael Thomas. If you put him as the top WR from both classes that is what the numbers say. I used to say Michael Thomas would not have been as good without Brees and I think there is some truth to that. I have also said he wouldnt have been as productive playing for the Vikings as the Saints, but after what Jefferon just did. I seem to be wrong about that too.

At 10 I think Rondale Moore is better than Ruggs. Very different players though makes it kind of hard to compare them. I had concerns about Ruggs, just like I have concerns about Rondale, but I think an argument could be made either way.  

At 11 I am higher on Reagor than you are. I had him ahead of Ruggs last season before the draft and despite the injury I still do. The draft position made that difficult but I am going to stick to my guns on this one at least for another season. I had Reagor ahead of Aiyuk and Justin Jefferson as well. I do seem to be wrong about that in regards to Jefferson.  Aiyuk was one of my "must-draft players" last season, putting him at the top of my Tier-2 WRs, only behind my Tier-1 group of Lamb-Jeudy-Jefferson.

Kenneth Gainwell is someone I should likely watch as you have him at 11 in this combined list. Just a name to me. Total SGT Shultz right now.  In PPR, Gainwell could emerge as an every-week starter.

I wont go into detail for the later guys although that is where the depth is. I have not delved into the 2021 prospects enough to really evaluate the depth with any confidence which is why your comments about that were interesting to me.

I dont see the top 12 as being a wash as you say. 2020 group looks quite a bit stronger to me.  I give the clear edge at early RBs to the 2020 class, and the 2020 Round One WRs get a slight nod, but when you add Pitts and Lawrence to the 2021 class, it draws the first round pretty close to even for me.

Well done!

My responses in RED above.

 

[Biabreakable]

Well done!

My responses in RED above.

I was looking at my 2020 ranking and only saw post draft. I know I did them. Maybe in the 2019 folder. I do that some times.

 

[socrates]

1.01   Najee Harris   RB1 (Tier 1)   6-2   229   Alabama--I don't like the upright style (injuries), and don't like him not working out.  Agreed.  On both counts.

1.04   Javonte Williams   RB3 (Tier 1)   5-10   220   North Carolina--I love the size, and really hope he gets a nice landing spot. If so, I might bump him up.  If you get a pick in the top 5 this season, you are looking good!

1.05   Kyle Pitts   TE1 (Tier 1)   6-6   240   Florida--I'm at 1.6 in one league, and hope my league subscribes to the "But a Tight End" school of thinking.  Pitts is among that 'top 5'.  He can be a real difference maker both in NFL terms and in fantasy.

1.06   Trevor Lawrence   QB1 (Tier 1)   6-6   220   Clemson--Agrey e here.  I'm picking late in the 1st, I'll let someone else draft WRs with holes, and slap a nice double to left center, and get this guy.  I will gladly take him in the first and lock my QB position up for the next 10-15 years!

1.07   Jaylen Waddle   WR2 (Tier 2)   5-10   183   Alabama--Like him a lot, but you're paying 6'2'' prices for a 5'9'' WR.  Likely to be TD-dependent.  This is the year of the slot receiver, but Waddle is dynamic.  Hopefully, that traslates over to the NFL.

1.10   Rondale Moore   WR5 (Tier 3)   5-7   181   Purdue--I have come to believe that the reason we never see these guys work in the NFL is that NFL coaches want to run their offense.  In college, you have a Rondale Moore, who is sooo much better than any other player on offense, you scheme him.  In the NFL, you want to run your offense, and not have to worry that your 3rd WR won't be seen by the QB on a 15 yard out.  I'll absolutely take a Terrace Marshall over him, and probably a 49ers Justin Fields.  Rondale Moore's injury history concerns me, along with his height, but my goodness is he fun to watch.  

1.11   Kenneth Gainwell   RB4 (Tier 2)   5-11   201   Memphis--I don't know enough about him, on my list to learn about

1.12   Terrace Marshall   WR6 (Tier 3)   6-3   201   LSU--I have a pick at 1.10, and expect this guy to be gone, as I think he leapfrogs some other guys once the draft happens.  He's my pick for biggest ADP riser.  I suspect you are right.

2.04   Jermar Jefferson   RB6 (Tier 2)   5-10   210   Oregon State--Had a rough pro day.  There are going to be UDFA with better metrics.  Hoping something was off.  His pro day, may affect his draft stock, and knock him from this round, maybe making him a nice 3rd rounder.  He is trending down.  Hopefully he drops enough I can grab him at a nice discount, but I am likely going to move Sermon above Jefferson with my next iteration.
 

2.05   Zach Wilson   QB3 (Tier 2)   6-3   209   BYU--Literally ignoring any Jets QB till there is evidence that this barge is heading in the right direction.   Love the talent.  Hate the Jets.

2.06   Trey Sermon   RB7 (Tier 2)   6-0   221   Ohio State--For the kind of player he is, he tested better than most.  Looks like a nice 2nd round target, at the moment.  Sermon is a player with his stock on the rise.

2.10   Kadarius Toney   WR8 (Tier 4)   5-11   194   Florida--There is a decent amount to not like about Toney.  He does have the stuff to be a slot WR that gets a lot of catches.  He gets the right system, the right coaches, and wants to be great, could be a homerun.  I won't trade up for him, but I think he'll probably be th last guy in a tier for me, before a big drop off.  I think Toney is a better complementary piece than a WR1, but there is definitely a place on my fantasy squad for those!

3.01   Dyami Brown   WR11 (Tier 4)   6-0   185   North Carolina--I'm a fan.  2nd round target over RB with obvious holes.  Not too many weaknesses, just stuff we haven't seen him do.  Still very young.  And raw.  I feel like he will go in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts, but I could not determine who I wanted to move down to make room.
3.08   Khalil Herbert   RB11 (Tier 3)   5-9   205   Virginia Tech--This guy'll be a target for me.  Herbert is a great target in Round 3-4 now, but draft destination will largely determine his opportunity, I suspect.

3.10   Ihmir Smith-Marsette   WR15 (Tier 5)   6-2   186   Iowa
I feel like we may all be whiffing on Ihmir Smith-Marsette.  He profiles similar to Tylan Wallace, who projects considerably higher.  I feel like Smith-Marsette could end up being the steal of the draft.  Smith-Marsette's numbers at Iowa were not spectacular, but that may be more of a consequence of playing in a conservative offense than a reflection of Smith-Marsette's abilities.  Smith-Marsette may have to cut his teeth on special teams initially, but his speed, versatility and ball-tracking skills could earn him a role on offense.  Smith-Marsette's season did not end well.  He was arrested in November for driving intoxicated, plus he suffered a season-ending high ankle sprain doing a front flip as he celebrated a TD.  smh  (Pro Day Update:  Smith-Marsette addressed his November drunk driving incident, and he at least said all of the right things.  Hopefully, he learns from this moving forward.  Fully recovered from the high-ankle sprain, Smith-Marsette reportedly ran a 4.43-40 and had an impressive 1.44-10-yard split, which is incredibly fast.)
Range of Comparisons: Markus Wheaton/Trevor Davis, with Christian Kirk/Darius Slayton upside
3.11   Rhamondre Stevenson   RB12 (Tier 4)   6-0   232   Oklahoma--I would love him to become a thing, but not optimistic.  Agreed

4.04   Seth Williams   WR17 (Tier 6)   6-3   224   Auburn--I bet this guy rises too.  I'll slam this pick at this spot.  I love these later-round receivers!

4.05   Amari Rodgers   WR18 (Tier 6)   5-10   210   Clemson--This guy too.  

4.10   Jaelon Darden   WR22 (Tier 7)   5-9   170   North Texas--I would very much like to see him and Cade Johnson become a thing.  Either way, I'll let someone else take slot guys in the 1st round, I'll take them in the 4th/5th.  
 

4.12   Josh Imatorbhebhe   WR23 (Tier 7)   6-2   220   Illinois--Think he had a freaky pro day.  Insane vertical, I think.  

5.03   Hunter Long   TE4 (Tier 3)   6-5   240   Boston College--Not a bad value here, I think.  
 

Chris Evans   RB20   5-11 (Tier 6)   216   Michigan--Good UDFA target. Mystery as to why he disappeared.  Maybe he banged the coach's daughter, and you get Arian Foster.  
 

WR:
Jacob Harris   WR   6-5   29   UCF--I have heard coaches asked him about playing TE.  Could do worse on your taxi squad, try and land a Darren Waller

Well done!  My responses in RED.

 

[socrates]

I was looking at my 2020 ranking and only saw post draft. I know I did them. Maybe in the 2019 folder. I do that some times.

I should start keeping my earlier rankings.  I often find I want to look back on them.  Back in the old days, I kept a 3-ring binder.  Not long ago, I came across my rankings the year we switched from redraft to dynasty, and it was a fun stroll down memory lane.  I loaded up at QB with Dan Marino and Randall Cunningham! lol

 

[Biabreakable]

I should start keeping my earlier rankings.  I often find I want to look back on them.  Back in the old days, I kept a 3-ring binder.  Not long ago, I came across my rankings the year we switched from redraft to dynasty, and it was a fun stroll down memory lane.  I loaded up at QB with Dan Marino and Randall Cunningham! lol

I started doing that more carefully back in 2014 and I do have all my pre NFL lists from 2014 to 2019 but I dont see one for 2020.

I likely posted them in some thread here back then but I seem to have lost that in my notepad list. I copy paste things in there a lot and maybe I accidentally pasted over it.

I even have a 2017 to 2019 combined ranking that I worked on for a bit for some reason.

 

[tangfoot]

I’m not going to argue or quibble over your rankings, rather your conclusions. 
It looks like you are taking the total of each round and counting up how many 2020 players were ranked ahead vs how many 2021 players, without taking into account where in that round they were ranked. 

For instance, you said that round 2 is basically a wash between years, but 2.01-2.04 were all 2020 players. To me, these 4 are worth way more than the rest of the 2nd round combined and show that the 2020 class was exceptionally deep through at least 15 players. 

And I would discount any conclusions on depth from rounds 3-5 entirely.  These are all complete lottery tickets and dart throws. Hell, James Robison didn’t even make the list. 

 

[socrates]

I’m not going to argue or quibble over your rankings, rather your conclusions. 
It looks like you are taking the total of each round and counting up how many 2020 players were ranked ahead vs how many 2021 players, without taking into account where in that round they were ranked. 

For instance, you said that round 2 is basically a wash between years, but 2.01-2.04 were all 2020 players. To me, these 4 are worth way more than the rest of the 2nd round combined and show that the 2020 class was exceptionally deep through at least 15 players. 

And I would discount any conclusions on depth from rounds 3-5 entirely.  These are all complete lottery tickets and dart throws. Hell, James Robison didn’t even make the list. 

I understand your point, but typically, you only have one pick per round, so I am not really taking into consideration where that pick is (it could be anywhere).  Does it make a difference if the four best players that round are from the 2020 class?  Sure, it matters.  Do I believe the 2020 top 15 was markedly better than the 2021 top 15?  No, not really.  Keep in mind, these are 2020 post-draft rankings vs. 2021 pre-draft rankings.  Ultimately, it is all subjective.

My point was not really to show a player-by-player comparison, although I realize that is essentially what I did.  I was merely trying to compare overall depth of the two classes.  

The 2020 class was exceptionally deep: one of the deepest we have seen in awhile.  The 2021 class stacks up pretty well against it.

 

[Yenrub]

 

[Denver724]

 

[Kiddnets]

 

[oukurt]

Incredible work man!

Outstanding work. Thanks socrates. 

 

[oukurt]

Draft capital and draft destination will largely determine opportunity.  We see players rise above that and climb a depth chart, but I agree with your point that they generally have a further climb.  Opportunities are not equal; they are generally directly correlated to draft capital and, hence, salary.    

If memory serves me correctly, didn’t Nico Collins show well at the combine? Any change to his stock? I see him as fitting into your tier 3. Really like his combination of speed and size. Did he run a sub 4.4?

Also Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle do not have RAS scores.  Disappointing. I love using RAS and WRAPS scores to identify value. 
Dyami Brown and Nico Collins both with great scores.

 

[socrates]

If memory serves me correctly, didn’t Nico Collins show well at the combine? Any change to his stock? I see him as fitting into your tier 3. Really like his combination of speed and size. Did he run a sub 4.4?

Also Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle do not have RAS scores.  Disappointing. I love using RAS and WRAPS scores to identify value. 
Dyami Brown and Nico Collins both with great scores.

There was no Combine, but at Michigan's Pro Day, Nico Collins impressed with a 4.43-40.  Collins is big and fast, and he absolutely bullies defensive backs.  Houston had a void at wideout, and especially for a big, physical receiver.  However, the uncertainty of who will be tossing him the rock in Houston raises some concern.  Still, Collins is a player who moves up.

 

[oukurt]

There was no Combine, but at Michigan's Pro Day, Nico Collins impressed with a 4.43-40.  Collins is big and fast, and he absolutely bullies defensive backs.  Houston had a void at wideout, and especially for a big, physical receiver.  However, the uncertainty of who will be tossing him the rock in Houston raises some concern.  Still, Collins is a player who moves up.

That was it. Thanks for clarifying. 

 

[socrates]

My early Post-Draft Draft Board (Dynasty PPR):

1.01   Najee Harris   RB1 (Tier 1)   6-2   229   Pittsburgh Steelers (Round 1, Pick 24)
Harris retains the top spot in rookie dynasty drafts.  The Steelers have long been a blue collar team which takes pride in a rugged ground game.  However, the Pittsburgh O-line has struggled recently, and we will see a lot of new faces up front this season.  How quickly this line comes together will be the key to success for Harris.  
1.02   JaMarr Chase   WR1 (Tier 1)   6-0   207   Cincinnati Bengals (Round 1, Pick 5)
Teaming Chase up with his former LSU QB should shorten the learning curve for the talented receiver.  Chase is a clear top-3 dynasty pick, and arguably the safest of the top dynasty picks.
1.03   Travis Etienne   RB2 (Tier 1)   5-10   205   Jacksonville Jaguars (Round 1, Pick 25)
It was a bit surprising to see the Jaguars draft Etienne, but, like Chase, Etienne is paired with his college QB.  James Robinson still looms as a threat to Etienne’s workload, but Etienne should get enough work to justify a top 3-5 dynasty pick.  The young Jaguars offense could quickly become one of the more exciting units in the league.
1.04   Javonte Williams   RB3 (Tier 1)   5-10   220   Denver Broncos (Round 2, Pick 35)
Melvin Gordon will still command his share of touches in the short term, but for dynasty purposes, this is one of the best destinations Williams could have asked for.  The Broncos are a QB away from being an elite offense, and Gordon is not going to hold off Williams for long.
1.05   Kyle Pitts   TE1 (Tier 1)   6-6   240   Atlanta Falcons (Round 1, Pick 4)
The Falcons will not wait long to get Pitts heavily involved.  Atlanta is playing to win now.  If you are investing in Pitts for your dynasty team, this should be music to your ears.  If there is a concern, it is with who will be quarterbacking this team in the future once Matt Ryan hangs it up.
1.06   Trevor Lawrence   QB1 (Tier 1)   6-6   220   Jacksonville Jaguars (Round 1, Pick 1)
There is plenty of reason to be excited about what they are doing in Jacksonville, and Trevor Lawrence as at the center of it all.  
1.07   Jaylen Waddle   WR2 (Tier 2)   5-10   183   Mimi Dolphins (Round 1, Pick 6)
Waddle should quickly become the centerpiece of the Miami offense.  Rumors of Tua’s demise in Miami are greatly exaggerated.  He spent his rookie season working his way back from injury.  Continuing the theme of reuniting young QBs with their college weapons, Tua gets his former teammate to go along with the off-season addition of Will Fuller.  
1.08   DeVonta Smith   WR3 (Tier 2)   6-1   174   Philadelphia Eagles (Round 1, Pick 10)
The Heisman Trophy winner should quickly endear himself to Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles.  I am not completely sold on Hurts as a passer, but he was also working with a receiving corps last season that could be bested on most schoolyard playgrounds.  Smith and Reagor give Hurts two young first-round receivers.  Look for Smith to quickly establish himself as the alpha dog in Philly.
1.09   Rashod Bateman   WR4 (Tier 3)   6-2   209   Baltimore Ravens (Round 1, Pick 27)
Bateman gets a slight bump down going to Baltimore, but there is still reason to remain excited about his future.  Bateman could quickly step in as the top wideout in Baltimore.  Lamar Jackson is not known for being an accurate downfield passer, but Bateman is known for his ability to fight for the ball, and he should quickly endear himself to the Ravens.
1.10   Elijah Moore   WR5 (Tier 3)   5-9   185   New York Jets (Round 2, Pick 34)
I love the direction the Jets are going with their offense.  The one established WR the Jets have is Jamison Crowder, who plays out of the slot, so it will be interesting to see how the team uses Elijah Moore, who worked almost exclusively out of the slot in college.
1.11   Rondale Moore   WR6 (Tier 3)   5-7   181   Arizona Cardinals (Round 2, Pick 49)
Moore is a big play injury waiting to happen.  Moore fits perfectly in Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense he deployed at Texas Tech.  Small, quick receivers Jakeem Grant and Keke Coutee thrived in the Kingsbury’s quick-strike offense.  The Cardinals hope Rondale Moore can excel where Andy Isabella has failed to establish himself.  The receiver room is crowded in Arizona.  A.J. Green is expected to man the outside opposite DeAndre Hopkins.  Moore will compete for touches with Christian Kirk, but as long as he can stay healthy, Moore has a chance to inject some excitement into the Arizona offense.
1.12   Trey Sermon     RB4 (Tier 2)   6-0   221   San Francisco 49ers (Round 3, Pick 88)
San Francisco has typically deployed a RBBC under Kyle Shanahan, but the Niners traded up to grab Sermon, who could prove to be a workhorse-type back for the 49ers.  There could be some growing pains for the Niner’s offense as they try to develop Trey Lance, and you have to account for the eventuality of Lance stealing a share of the goal line carries.  Sermon’s star was already on the rise prior to the NFL Draft, but he has now emerged as the clear RB4 in this class, IMO.

2.01   Michael Carter   RB5 (Tier 2)   5-8   201   New York Jets (Round 4, Pick 107)
You really could not ask for a better destination for Carter.  Carter does not profile as a workhorse back, but he could quickly emerge as the primary back in what promises to be an improved offense. 
2.02   Justin Fields   QB2 (Tier 2)   6-3   228   Chicago Bears (Round 1, Pick 11)
The Bears have longed for a franchise QB for generations.  Hopefully, Fields can finally fill that void.  Hope has been restored in the Windy City!  Allen Robinson remains the linchpin for this offense, but Fields has added fantasy value with his running ability.
2.03   Terrace Marshall   WR7 (Tier 4)   6-3   201   Carolina Panthers (Round 2, Pick 59)
Marshall moves down a few spots with his arrival in Carolina, but he is still an excellent dynasty WR to target.
2.04   Kadarius Toney   WR8 (Tier 4)   5-11   194   New York Giants (Round 1, Pick 20)
Toney could be fed a healthy diet of passes.  I am not completely sold on Toney, but his draft capital means he will get the opportunity to shine.
2.05   Trey Lance   QB3 (Tier 2)   6-4   224   San Francisco 49ers (Round 1, Pick 3)
Lance gets a bump up going to San Francisco.  He may begin the season behind Jimmy G, but he is the future for the Niners.
2.06   Zach Wilson   QB4 (Tier 2)   6-3   209   New York Jets (Round 1, Pick 2)
Potential elite QB.  Wilson does not bring elite running ability, but the Jets are surrounding him with some talent.
2.07   Amon-Ra St. Brown   WR9 (Tier 4)   6-1   195   Detroit Lions (Round 4, Pick 112)
Amon-Ra St. Brown lasted longer in the draft than I expected, but he finds himself with a very good opportunity in Detroit.  St. Brown will look to become QB Jared Goff’s new Cooper Kupp.
2.08   Pat Freiermuth   TE2 (Tier 2)   6-5   260   Pittsburgh Steelers (Round 2, Pick 55)
Pat Freiermuth is a Steelers kind of player.  I could not be happier with this destination for the talented Tight End.  As is usually the case with rookie Tight Ends, it may take some time for Freiermuth to establish himself.  He is not going to supplant Eric Ebron on the depth chart this season, but he could be a viable fantasy option for 2022.
2.09   Josh Palmer WR10 (Tier 4)   6-1   210   Los Angeles Chargers (Round 3, Pick 77)
Palmer could spend a good part of 2021 playing behind Mike Williams, but with Williams a pending free agent next off-season and Keenan Allen now 29 years old, Palmer is an excellent long-range target for your dynasty team.  He looks to pair up with Justin Herbert in what could be a deadly duo for many seasons to come.
2.10   Dyami Brown   WR11 (Tier 4)   6-0   185   Washington Football Team (Round 3, Pick 82)
Washington has been seeking a legitimate threat opposite Terry McLaurin.  They brought in Curtis Samuel and drafted the speedy Dyami Brown.  Fitzpatrick should enjoy the riches this season, but there is still a need to address the QB position long term.
2.11   Nico Collins   WR12 (Tier 4)   6-4   218   Houston Texans (Round 3, Pick 89)
Houston had a glaring need for receiver help, and Collins helps to fill that void.  The question is who will be throwing the ball to him.
2.12   Kenneth Gainwell   RB6 (Tier 3)   5-11   201   Philadelphia Eagles (Round 5, Pick 150)
It is a bit disappointing to see Gainwell drafted behind a young, talented back in Miles Sanders, but Gainwell could quickly ascend the depth chart to become Sanders’ primary backup.

3.01   Chuba Hubbard     RB7 (Tier 3)   6-0   208   Carolina Panthers (Round 4, Pick 126)
You may need to exercise some patience with Hubbard, but we have seen Christian McCaffrey’s backups get their turn at reps in Carolina.  Hubbard could be vastly underrated in dynasty.  He is an excellent CMC insurance policy, but he could carve out a reserve role even behind a healthy McCaffrey.
3.02   D’Wayne Eskridge   WR13 (Tier 5)   5-9   190   Seattle Seahawks (Round 2, Pick 56)
Probably a bit overdrafted by Seattle, considering they already have Tyler Lockett, and they lacked picks, but you have to love the potential with Russ Wilson.
3.03   Amari Rodgers   WR14 (Tier 5)   5-10   210   Green Bay Packers (Round 3, Pick 85)
I was a little surprised the Packers took Amari over Amon-Ra, but I like the potential.  If Aaron Rodgers departs, I like the situation a lot less, however.
3.04   Mac Jones   QB5 (Tier 3)   6-3   214   New England Patriots (Round 1, Pick 15)
Jones faced much criticism, mostly unfairly, when he was being discussed as the target for the Forty Niners at pick 1.03.  Jones finds himself in a very favorable situation playing for Bill Belichick behind an aging starter.  He won’t be an elite fantasy QB, but he can be a valuable starter.
3.05   Tylan Wallace   WR15 (Tier 5)   6-0   190   Baltimore Ravens (Round 4, Pick 131)
Tylan Wallace plays bigger than his size, and he really understands how to work the boundaries.  He finds himself in what could be as a disappointing situation in Baltimore, however.  He gets a bump down with the destination, but he presents good upside at this point in your draft.
3.06   Khalil Herbert   RB8 (Tier 4)   5-9   205   Chicago Bears (Round 6, Pick 217)
Chicago would be a more appealing draft destination had the Bears not gone out and signed Damien Williams.  After missing a season for COVID and moving on from KC, the 29-year old Williams may not be quite the back we last saw winning a Super Bowl.  It does not take a lot of imagination to envision Herbert as the primary backup to David Montgomery.
3.07   Rhamondre Stevenson   RB9 (Tier 4)   6-0   232   New England Patriots (Round 4, Pick 120)
Stevenson has an intriguing skillset.  I compared him earlier to LeGarrette Blount, so it is interesting that he finds himself in New England.  Now, there is even talk that Sony Michel could be displaced.  New England is the ultimate RBBC destination, but Bill Belichick loves role-playing RBs, and Stevenson fits that mold.  It is a crowded mess at RB, but you could do worse with a roll of the dice than drafting Stevenson to your fantasy squad.
3.08   Jermar Jefferson     RB10 (Tier 4)   5-10   210   Detroit Lions (Round 7, Pick 257)
It was a disappointing drop for Jefferson, and he finds himself behind D’Andre Swift in Detroit, but keep in mind that Swift was not exactly a picture of durability during his rookie campaign.  Jefferson could get his opportunities in this offense, especially now with Kerryon carrying on elsewhere, but Jamaal Williams is going to factor into the rotation.
3.09   Brevin Jordan   TE3 (Tier 3)   6-3   235   Houston Texans (Round 5, Pick 147)
Houston is a hot mess right now, but there is an opportunity at TE for Brevin Jordan.  The team added another big-bodied pass catcher in Nico Collins, and Jordan gives Houston a pair of big targets.  The question is: who is going to be guiding the team under center?
3.10   Ihmir Smith-Marsette   WR16 (Tier 5)   6-2   186   Minnesota Vikings (Round 5, Pick 157)
There is not a lot of room for Smith-Marsette in the WR rotation, but he has the skillset to develop into a real threat.
3.11   Elijah Mitchell     RB11 (Tier 5)   5-11   217   San Francisco 49ers (Round 6, Pick 194)
The Shanahan system famously turns under-the-radar backs into stars, and Elijah Mitchell hopes to add to that legend.  However, the Niners also moved up in the draft to grab Trey Sermon, and they still have Mostert and Wilson.  Injuries can change the RB landscape quickly, but I am not expecting Mitchell to emerge year one in San Francisco.  Looking beyond 2021, you can see a path to a more prominent role in the offense, but I am not investing too heavily in what could fairly be described as speculative value.
3.12   Chatarius “Tutu” Atwell   WR17 (Tier 6)   5-9   155   Los Angeles Rams (Round 2, Pick 57)
It is hard to imagine Atwell being more than a gimmick player on offense, but you cannot ignore the draft capital.

4.01   Davis Mills     QB6 (Tier 4)   6-4   225   Houston Texans (Round 3, Pick 67)
Mills is still raw, but he has the talent to be a starter.  Houston may need some QB help, depending on what happens with Watson.
4.02   Anthony Schwartz   WR18 (Tier 6)   6-0   180   Cleveland Browns (Round 3, Pick 91)
Schwartz brings incredible speed to the Browns, but he may be more decoy than productive WR.
4.03   Desmond “Dez” Fitzpatrick   WR19 (Tier 6)   6-2   210   Tennessee Titans (Round 4, Pick 109)
Tennessee needed to fill the void left by Corey Davis, but Fitzpatrick will have to compete with fellow rookie Racey McMath for touches.
4.04   Cornell Powell   WR20 (Tier 6)   Kansas City Chiefs (Round 5, Pick 181)
The Chiefs needed help at the WR position, but I don’t know that Powell is ready to step up and fill that need.  Powell will have to challenge Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson for turns in the offense, but if he can carve out a role, you have to love the destination.
4.05   Jalen Camp   WR21 (Tier 7)   6-2   220   Jacksonville Jaguars (Round 6, Pick 209)
Camp needs a good camp to earn reps in this emerging offense
4.06   Seth Williams   WR22 (Tier 7)   6-3   224   Denver Broncos (Round 6, Pick 219)
Is Williams insurance behind Courtland Sutton, or can he break a talented lineup?
4.07   Marquez Stevenson   WR23 (Tier 7)   5-10   182   Buffalo Bills (Round 6, Pick 203)
Speedy receiver to replace John Brown?
4.08   Kylin Hill   RB12 (Tier 5)   5-11   215   Green Bay Packers (Round 7, Pick 256)
Kylin Hill becomes Green Bay’s new Jamaal Williams, but AJ Dillon’s emergence late last season is part of what made Williams expendable.  Hill’s strengths do not necessarily overlap those of Dillon, so Hill could carve out a receiving role behind Aaron Jones, but I don’t expect Hill will be more than a potential bye week desperation play without a significant shakeup ahead of him.
4.09   Demetric Felton     RB13 (Tier 5)   5-10   189   Cleveland Browns (Round 6, Pick 211)
I was pretty excited about Felton leading up to the draft, but my enthusiasm was quickly doused when Felton was drafted by Cleveland.  Felton was never going to challenge for a lead RB role, but Cleveland’s RB rotation of Chubb and Hunt, plus D’Ernest Johnson as a versatile reserve, leaves little room for Felton to excel.  Things obviously change quickly in the NFL, and the Browns could find a role for the skilled Felton, but I am not investing much to acquire him at this point.
4.10   Sage Surratt   WR24 (Tier 7)   6-3   215   Detroit Lions (UDFA)
Surratt is very similar to fellow Lion Quintez Cephus, but he has some talent.  Surprising he was not drafted, but a slow 40 time may have doomed him.
4.11   Tamorrion Terry   WR25 (Tier 7)   6-3   207   Seattle Seahawks (UDFA)
Terry has intriguing skillset, but he needs to prove he is dedicated to football.
4.12   Larry Rountree III   RB14 (Tier 5)   5-10   210   Los Angeles Chargers (Round 6, Pick 198)
Rountree finds himself in a good situation in Los Angeles.  There is not a clearly-established depth chart at RB, and the undersized Ekeler has shown some durability issues.  Rountree has few weaknesses, but also few outstanding traits.  He is never going to be a long-term starter, but he could string together a few start-worthy games if called upon.  Invest accordingly.

5.01   Simi Fehoko   WR26   (Tier 7)   6-4   220   Dallas Cowboys (Round 5, Pick 179)
It is a crowded house in the receiver room in Dallas, but I love what Fehoko brings in terms of raw talent.
5.02   Hunter Long   TE4 (Tier 3)   6-5   240   Miami Dolphins (Round 3, Pick 81)
It is curious that the Dolphins drafted Long with Mike Gesicki already providing solid value at the TE position.  Long is talented enough to push Gesicki.
5.03   Tre’ McKitty   TE5 (Tier 3)   6-4   246   Los Angeles Chargers (Round 3, Pick 97)
The Chargers brought Jared Cook in to fill the void left by Hunter Henry’s departure, but the 34-year old Cook is merely a gap filler for the Chargers.  McKitty could change that with a strong camp.
5.04   Jaelon Darden   WR27 (Tier 7)   5-9   170   Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Round 4, Pick 129)
Crowded depth chart, but I love the talent.
5.05   Javian Hawkins   RB15 (Tier 6)   5-9   182   Atlanta Falcons (UDFA)
There is a serious need for talented backs in Atlanta.  Hawkins is a PPR special.
5.06   Pooka Williams Jr.   RB16 (Tier 6)   5-8   175   Cincinnati Bengals (UDFA)
Gone is Gio Bernard and his receiving ability from the RB position.  The Bengals are saying those extra reps will go to Joe Mixon, but Pooka could challenge for those touches.  He is a jitterbug who could present a Tarik Cohen type of weapon for Cincinnati.
5.07   Jacob Harris   TE6 (Tier 4)   6-5   219   Los Angeles Rams (Round 4, Pick 141)
Harris is likely listed in most fantasy leagues as a WR, but he was selected and announced as a TE.  That is where his real value lies.  Harris will have to cut his teeth initially on special teams, but he has a freakish combination of size and speed.  He is still very raw, but if the Rams can develop him, he could emerge as a legitimate weapon.  This is your classic swing-for-the-fences type of pick, and he may go Rico Gathers on us, but he is worth a gamble late in your dynasty drafts.  It is worth noting that Harris gives Stafford a vertical, jump-ball weapon, which is a player type he seemed to favor in Detroit (Calvin Johnson, Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay).
5.08   Kene Nwangwu   RB17 (Tier 6)   6-1   210   Minnesota Vikings (Round 4, Pick 119)
Probably more of a reserve-type player, but he has some intrigue as a backup to Dalvin Cook.
5.09   Josh Imatorbhebhe   WR28 (Tier 7)   6-2   220   Jacksonville Jaguars
Crowded receivers' room, but an intriguing addition.
5.10   Jonathan Adams Jr.   WR29 (Tier 7)   6-2   210   Detroit Lions (UDFA)
I love this addition by the Lions.  
5.11   Chris Evans   RB18 (Tier 6)   5-11 216   Cincinnati Bengals (Round 6, Pick 202)
Evans could be a nice end-of-your-draft selection.  He has the talent to emerge as Mixon’s primary reserve, but he could just as easily be out of the league by September.
5.12   Racey McMath   WR30 (Tier 7)   6-2   211   Tennessee Titans (Round 6, Pick 205)
The Titans have a void to fill.

 

[Ilov80s]

Love it. Thanks so much. My 3 questions:

1. Why Harris over ETN? Size? ETN seems to have the better college resume and looks to be on a team with an easier offense to project going forward

2. Why so low on Schwartz? He hits a lot of the markers analytically, he blazing speed and OBJ/Landry likely aren't with Cleveland much longer. The opportunity seems there. 

3. Is there anything to like about Palmer other than how the draft played out for him?

 

[socrates]

Love it. Thanks so much. My 3 questions:

1. Why Harris over ETN? Size? ETN seems to have the better college resume and looks to be on a team with an easier offense to project going forward

2. Why so low on Schwartz? He hits a lot of the markers analytically, he blazing speed and OBJ/Landry likely aren't with Cleveland much longer. The opportunity seems there. 

3. Is there anything to like about Palmer other than how the draft played out for him?

Excellent questions!

1.  I think the path to a bellcow role for Harris is more obvious, and I believe he is a better receiver than Etienne.  Etienne still needs to contend with James Robinson.  However, I think any of the top 3 are good candidates for 1.01.  My preference is Harris, but I would be pleased with Etienne or Chase.  Harris comes with some concerns.  The Steelers O-Line is being rebuilt, and it is a liability right now, and the future at QB is uncertain.

2.  Schwartz definitely has blazing speed, but he was never especially productive at Auburn.  I do like the potential opportunity Schwartz could enjoy in Cleveland, but, despite his speed, he was never a prolific scoring threat, and his hands are inconsistent.  I think Schwartz has some Mecole Hardman/Will Fuller upside potential, and I would gladly draft him late for his tremendous upside, but he is very much a boom-bust type pick.  My concern is that Schwartz is likely more of a role player.

3.  I had Palmer ranked several spots below Nico Collins going into the NFL Draft, so this ranking represents a move up my board based on draft capital and draft destination, although I do also like the player.  Palmer fits well as a classic x receiver, a role Mike Williams could vacate after this season.  (If I had more confidence in Deshaun Watson's situation, I would move Collins back above Palmer.  However, I really like the potential Palmer presents with Herbert and the Chargers, as well.)  Palmer lacks elite athleticism, but he has sufficient speed, strong hands, good size for the position, and he seemed to run effective routes.  Unfortunately, the Tennessee offense struggled, so we never really got to see what Palmer could offer.  I may have ranked Palmer more on his upside, but I tend to favor high-upside players.

 

[Ilov80s]

Excellent questions!

1.  I think the path to a bellcow role for Harris is more obvious, and I believe he is a better receiver than Etienne.  Etienne still needs to contend with James Robinson.  However, I think any of the top 3 are good candidates for 1.01.  My preference is Harris, but I would be pleased with Etienne or Chase.  Harris comes with some concerns.  The Steelers O-Line is being rebuilt, and it is a liability right now, and the future at QB is uncertain.

Excellent answers! Fair response here about the top 3. Considering I have also gone in circles on the top 3. 

2.  Schwartz definitely has blazing speed, but he was never especially productive at Auburn.  I do like the potential opportunity Schwartz could enjoy in Cleveland, but, despite his speed, he was never a prolific scoring threat, and his hands are inconsistent.  I think Schwartz has some Mecole Hardman/Will Fuller upside potential, and I would gladly draft him late for his tremendous upside, but he is very much a boom-bust type pick.  My concern is that Schwartz is likely more of a role player.

If you adjust Schwart's production for how bad the QB play and overall offense was, it's not too bad. Not good, but average. 

3.  I had Palmer ranked several spots below Nico Collins going into the NFL Draft, so this ranking represents a move up my board based on draft capital and draft destination, although I do also like the player.  Palmer fits well as a classic x receiver, a role Mike Williams could vacate after this season.  (If I had more confidence in Deshaun Watson's situation, I would move Collins back above Palmer.  However, I really like the potential Palmer presents with Herbert and the Chargers, as well.)  Palmer lacks elite athleticism, but he has sufficient speed, strong hands, good size for the position, and he seemed to run effective routes.  Unfortunately, the Tennessee offense struggled, so we never really got to see what Palmer could offer.  I may have ranked Palmer more on his upside, but I tend to favor high-upside players.

I will be honest, I don't know how bad the UT offense has been but his college numbers are scary low. I will check him out some more though, I love Herbert so his WRs interest me. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Socrates I was listening to Rick Spielman GM of the Vikings talk about the draft from their perspective.

It is a running joke that Rick Spielman covets late round draft picks. He has a pretty long track record now of trading down for extra picks. The Vikings selected 15 players in 2020 for example, setting a record for the number of picks made by one team in a 7 round draft. He really values depth.

For the 2021 season Spielman said the draft class was not as deep as it usually is. That they were not interested in moving back from their many 3rd and 4th round selections because they didnt feel the depth was there to justify it. He says fewer players declared for the draft than usual because of Covid and 2020 season being so strange, teams not playing all of their games and so on. 

I wanted to bring this to your attention since we were discussing the depth of the class earlier on prior to the draft and your view about the 2021 class being deep at certain positions like WR.

We talked about comparing the 2021 draft class to 2020 and 2014 earlier on. Perhaps we should do that as a thought experiment as well. I just wanted to share one point of view on it from Rick Spielman that suggests the 2021 draft class was not as deep as a average draft class is. 

 

[socrates]

Socrates I was listening to Rick Spielman GM of the Vikings talk about the draft from their perspective.

It is a running joke that Rick Spielman covets late round draft picks. He has a pretty long track record now of trading down for extra picks. The Vikings selected 15 players in 2020 for example, setting a record for the number of picks made by one team in a 7 round draft. He really values depth.

For the 2021 season Spielman said the draft class was not as deep as it usually is. That they were not interested in moving back from their many 3rd and 4th round selections because they didnt feel the depth was there to justify it. He says fewer players declared for the draft than usual because of Covid and 2020 season being so strange, teams not playing all of their games and so on. 

I wanted to bring this to your attention since we were discussing the depth of the class earlier on prior to the draft and your view about the 2021 class being deep at certain positions like WR.

We talked about comparing the 2021 draft class to 2020 and 2014 earlier on. Perhaps we should do that as a thought experiment as well. I just wanted to share one point of view on it from Rick Spielman that suggests the 2021 draft class was not as deep as a average draft class is. 

In terms of the NFL Draft, I would not disagree with Spielman.  I don't believe this was overall an especially strong draft class, particularly in the later rounds.  However, in fantasy football, you are not spending many meaningful picks on prospects drafted after the 4th Round.  It would be interesting to compare the number of skill players drafted in the first four rounds this year compared to other years.  If I get some time, I will try to compile such a list.

I will say that some of the draft destinations this season took a bit of the shine off of the draft class as a whole.

 

[Biabreakable]

In terms of the NFL Draft, I would not disagree with Spielman.  I don't believe this was overall an especially strong draft class, particularly in the later rounds.  However, in fantasy football, you are not spending many meaningful picks on prospects drafted after the 4th Round.  It would be interesting to compare the number of skill players drafted in the first four rounds this year compared to other years.  If I get some time, I will try to compile such a list.

I will say that some of the draft destinations this season took a bit of the shine off of the draft class as a whole.

I was curious so I looked it up.

There were 20 WR selected in the first 4 rounds of the 2021 NFL draft. Going back to 2000 it looks like the average number of WR selected each year in the top 4 rounds is something like 16 to 18 (I stopped looking after 2013).

There were only 18 WR selected in the first 4 rounds of the 2020 NFL draft. So 2 less than 2021.

There is a random element to this as well however as the 2017 draft had 21 WR selected in the first 4 rounds and besides Cooper Kupp a season from JJSS and marginal production from Corey Davis the group hasn't really lived up to where they were drafted. I dont recall any hoopla about the 2017 WR class, in fact part of why I was so high on Corey Davis is because none of the other WR that year were that good or comparable to him.

The 2014 draft had 21 WR selected in the first 4 rounds also. Most of them have been worth the price of admission.

Anyhow doing it this way it does look like the 2021 draft had more than the average number of WR selected in the first 4 rounds.

Of course I cant help but mention that Stefon Diggs was a 5th round pick but you are right that most of the community was unaware of him and his abilities until he started tearing it up in training camp. We have to partition these things somewhere.

 

[JohnnyU]

Gainwell fell so far in rookie drafts that he has good value for those who drafted him late in the 2nd round or early 3rd.  He is the best receiving RB in the draft and could do very well iin PPR leagues.

 

[socrates]

Gainwell fell so far in rookie drafts that he has good value for those who drafted him late in the 2nd round or early 3rd.  He is the best receiving RB in the draft and could do very well iin PPR leagues.

Agreed.  Miles Sanders stands as a formidable roadblock to a substantial role for Gainwell, but things change quickly in the NFL.  Gainwell is a bargain pick in PPR leagues if you can get him past the mid 2nd, but those who draft him may need to exercise some patience.

 

[JohnnyU]

Agreed.  Miles Sanders stands as a formidable roadblock to a substantial role for Gainwell, but things change quickly in the NFL.  Gainwell is a bargain pick in PPR leagues if you can get him past the mid 2nd, but those who draft him may need to exercise some patience.

I'm rooting for him.  I believe he had 4 family members die from COVID.

 

[socrates]

I was curious so I looked it up.

There were 20 WR selected in the first 4 rounds of the 2021 NFL draft. Going back to 2000 it looks like the average number of WR selected each year in the top 4 rounds is something like 16 to 18 (I stopped looking after 2013).

There were only 18 WR selected in the first 4 rounds of the 2020 NFL draft. So 2 less than 2021.

There is a random element to this as well however as the 2017 draft had 21 WR selected in the first 4 rounds and besides Cooper Kupp a season from JJSS and marginal production from Corey Davis the group hasn't really lived up to where they were drafted. I dont recall any hoopla about the 2017 WR class, in fact part of why I was so high on Corey Davis is because none of the other WR that year were that good or comparable to him.

The 2014 draft had 21 WR selected in the first 4 rounds also. Most of them have been worth the price of admission.

Anyhow doing it this way it does look like the 2021 draft had more than the average number of WR selected in the first 4 rounds.

Of course I cant help but mention that Stefon Diggs was a 5th round pick but you are right that most of the community was unaware of him and his abilities until he started tearing it up in training camp. We have to partition these things somewhere.

Excellent work!  

I wonder how much of that elevated number of receivers in the first 4 rounds this season is a consequence of an overall weak draft at other positions versus a strong WR class.  I suspect it is a little of each.

 

[JohnnyU]

I was curious so I looked it up.

There were 20 WR selected in the first 4 rounds of the 2021 NFL draft. Going back to 2000 it looks like the average number of WR selected each year in the top 4 rounds is something like 16 to 18 (I stopped looking after 2013).

There were only 18 WR selected in the first 4 rounds of the 2020 NFL draft. So 2 less than 2021.

There is a random element to this as well however as the 2017 draft had 21 WR selected in the first 4 rounds and besides Cooper Kupp a season from JJSS and marginal production from Corey Davis the group hasn't really lived up to where they were drafted. I dont recall any hoopla about the 2017 WR class, in fact part of why I was so high on Corey Davis is because none of the other WR that year were that good or comparable to him.

The 2014 draft had 21 WR selected in the first 4 rounds also. Most of them have been worth the price of admission.

Anyhow doing it this way it does look like the 2021 draft had more than the average number of WR selected in the first 4 rounds.

Of course I cant help but mention that Stefon Diggs was a 5th round pick but you are right that most of the community was unaware of him and his abilities until he started tearing it up in training camp. We have to partition these things somewhere.

What percentage of those 20 WRs drafted in 2021 will be roster cloggers this time next year?

 

[socrates]

What percentage of those 20 WRs drafted in 2021 will be roster cloggers this time next year?

I think the miss rate on WRs taken after the 2nd round is always high, but I suspect this year's crop of receivers is not likely to be much different than any other class.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think the miss rate on WRs taken after the 2nd round is always high, but I suspect this year's crop of receivers is not likely to be much different than any other class.

I wonder how many Christian Kirk's there are in this draft?

 

[socrates]

I wonder how many Christian Kirk's there are in this draft?

Christian Kirks?  I am going with zero

 

[JohnnyU]

Christian Kirks?  I am going with zero

Metaphor

 

[MAC_32]

What percentage of those 20 WRs drafted in 2021 will be roster cloggers this time next year?

A high %, but I think most of them will be those drafted rounds 3 and 4.

 

[Biabreakable]

Excellent work!  

I wonder how much of that elevated number of receivers in the first 4 rounds this season is a consequence of an overall weak draft at other positions versus a strong WR class.  I suspect it is a little of each.

Yeah I agree both could be at work here and maybe 2017 was a weak draft causing that as well.

I seem to recall that WR and CB are two of the highest drafted positions overall in all drafts as long as you separate the offensive line positions.

 

[Biabreakable]

What percentage of those 20 WRs drafted in 2021 will be roster cloggers this time next year?

Yeah this is more what we want to figure out.

For me there are only about 8 players from 2021 draft that I think will be relevant for fantasy purposes. I am sure one or two guys will surprise me and likely one or more of the 8 will end up disappointing me.

 

[MAC_32]

Yeah this is more what we want to figure out.

For me there are only about 8 players from 2021 draft that I think will be relevant for fantasy purposes. I am sure one or two guys will surprise me and likely one or more of the 8 will end up disappointing me.

I am confident in 6. I think a 7th (Rondale) is worth a gamble. And I won't dismiss #8 (Toney) although I won't be in on him. The tier drops after him. There were others I'd have considered in better situations, but they weren't so luck last month. I only do IDP, so keep that in mind but I'd try not to consider another WR after Toney until round 4+. There are some darts I like more than others, but they're all low probability hits so treat them accordingly. 

 

[socrates]

What lessons did we learn from this rookie class, and how can we apply that going forward?

1.  Destination and draft capital matter, but the best success metrics tend to be talent, college production and breakout age.  It is easy to get caught up in the draft hype, but the same players who were producing early on in the college ranks are likely to be the ones producing on Sundays.

2.  The NFL is a passing league.  We have seen WRs dominate the past few drafts for good reason.  The injury-attrition rate at RB is extremely high, and we know RB careers are considerably shorter than other positions.  While RBs will likely always dominate the early picks of dynasty rookie drafts, due to position scarcity, the NFL market for post-rookie deal RBs is limited.  

3.  Versatility equals job security.  This is especially apparent at the RB position.  As teams shift to more of a platoon approach, it makes sense that those RBs who stay on the field offer more lasting production.  A player who is a one-trick pony will offer you limited fantasy production.  Anthony Schwartz may fit into this category.

4.  With the attrition rates of COVID added to already-rising injury rates, role players matter.  It is important to roster depth players who can be plugged in for production.  I still love the idea of backfilling my dynasty roster with high-upside players, but it is important to keep a balance of players who can immediately produce, as well.  With potentially fewer roster spots available for non-productive stash players, it puts an even-greater premium on identifying those long-term investments you want to plant your flag on.

5.  Exercise patience, but don’t clog up a valuable roster spot too long.  Trust your analysis, but be willing to re-assess as you glean more data.  We have all had non-productive players we held onto just to see them explode the week after we cut them to cover a bye.  It sucks.  However, I have also been guilty of missing out on quality free agents while I stubbornly clogged my roster with players who never developed.  The NFL moves quickly, and we need to constantly re-assess our position on prospects.  This season, I sat on Jermar Jefferson, even as it became apparent he was probably never going to be the player I hoped he might. 

6.  Size matters.  Every year, I seem to fall into the trap of over-valuing players who fall outside of the ideal metrics for the position.  This is most important at the RB position.  As much as I would love to see players like Demetric Felton and Javian Hawkins succeed, it is rare for backs of their size to truly offer much sustained production.  The same may be true of a vastly-undersized receiver like Tutu Atwell.  Elijah Moore and DeVonta Smith had success, however.  There is a premium on receivers who can get open, and as the NFL adjusts to limit physicality on receivers, we see some smaller receivers produce.  Hunter Renfrow demonstrated how an elite route runner can excel, despite his size.

 

[Tha Guru]

I really appreciate the effort and thought you put into this.  Top notch stuff 

 

[Lehigh98]

Really appreciate the work.  Last season was my first in a dynasty / devy league and this helped with my first rookie drafts.  Already looking forward to next year!

 

[wlwiles]

6.  Size matters.  Every year, I seem to fall into the trap of over-valuing players who fall outside of the ideal metrics for the position.  This is most important at the RB position.  As much as I would love to see players like Demetric Felton and Javian Hawkins succeed, it is rare for backs of their size to truly offer much sustained production.  The same may be true of a vasty-undersized receiver like Tutu Atwell.  Elijah Moore and DeVonta Smith had success, however.  There is a premium on receivers who can get open, and as the NFL adjusts to limit physicality on receivers, we see some smaller receivers produce.  Hunter Renfrow demonstrated how an elite route runner can excel, despite his size.

I'm a sucker for the big tall athletic WR rookies, chasing the next version of Megatron, and it's bitten me (Hakeem Butler) but I can't quit it.  Gonna end up with Burks probably higher than he should be because I just can't quit

 

[socrates]

I'm a sucker for the big tall athletic WR rookies, chasing the next version of Megatron, and it's bitten me (Hakeem Butler) but I can't quit it.  Gonna end up with Burks probably higher than he should be because I just can't quit

I am the same!  Burks is the #1 rookie receiver on my early board!  

 

[tangfoot]

I am the same!  Burks is the #1 rookie receiver on my early board!  

Can he run routes?

 

[IHEARTFF]

Can he run routes?

The question of questions 

 

[IHEARTFF]

I don’t know what dumb things I said last offseason but we learned that most draft classes are not the 2021 class. Ridiculous how good the top of this class is with depth too. 

 

[socrates]

Can he run routes?

That is the primary thing preventing Burks from being in the AJ Brown class of prospects coming into the league, but Burks has so many positive traits, I believe he is still the top fantasy wideout prospect in this class, at least at this early juncture.

 

[rockaction]

Love this thread. 

It really is already time to get to thinking, watching, evaluating in our own crude ways. Just to familiarize ourselves, for those of us that aren't already studying the college game, that is. 

 

[trader jake]

5.  Exercise patience, but don’t clog up a valuable roster spot too long.  Trust your analysis, but be willing to re-assess as you glean more data.  We have all had non-productive players we held onto just to see them explode the week after we cut them to cover a bye.  It sucks.  However, I have also been guilty of missing out on quality free agents while I stubbornly clogged my roster with players who never developed.  [snip]

This is a balancing act all long-term dynasty GMs eventually have to deal with.  In 2020 I stayed near the middle of the seesaw (balancing win now vets vs youthful upside) with roster management, but after seeing the effects of Covid and seeing the higher than typical opportunity cost associated with keeping those prospects...I jumped both feet toward the vets in 2021 and "farmer, farmer, let me down" dropped those marginal prospects hard (or traded them away dirt cheap) this past season.

Players like Hunter Long, Amari Rodgers, and Larry Roundtree were sent packing largely to free up roster spots to pick-up one or two week spot starters or wildly speculative running backs that were, best case, #3 on the depth chart at the time.  Players like Todd Gurley, Kerryon Johnson, Adrian Peterson, D'onta Foreman, Trent Cannon, Boston Scott, Jordan Howard, Eno Benjamin, Duke Johnson, Matt Breida, Royce Freeman, Travis Homer, Patrick Taylor, Ameer Abdullah, etc. Prior to week 17 I even picked up WAS RB Jonathan Williams on the off chance he'd start for me in the Championship game (ended up starting Jaret Patterson in one of the flex spots, but if he got Covid late in the week Williams may have got the nod when it mattered most).  With injuries and Covid, those gambles become a feature, not a bug, in winning in 2021.

All that said, I suspect sports leagues are close to the point where they are going to find ways to get players on the field come hell or high water soon, so I plan on reversing that strategy right back to "middle of the seesaw" in 2022.  Less speculative, potential vets and more draft and develop prospects.