Cutler vs. Cassel Trades (1 Viewer)

[GregR_2]

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I've thought the same thing. Cutler's value was found to be two 1sts, a 3rd, Orton, minus a 5th. If McDaniels thinks Cassel is worth more than that, how on earth could he not have beat out what the Chief's offered. A 2nd minus Vrabel beat out what he was willing to trade? What is that, about 20% of the market price of Cutler? If he thought Cassel was better than Cutler he should have been willing to give a lot more than the Chiefs ultimately gave and still felt like he came out ahead in the deal.

I think you can give him some leeway that Cutler's value wasn't established until later. But come on... a 2nd is paltry compared to any realistic value of what Cutler would have gone for. Even giving him leeway, he wasn't willing to give up a 2nd for a player his actions suggest he had valued much higher than that.

No, the wackiness is the perceived value of the cogs in both trades.

Unless you believe that New England took demonstrably less for Cassel than Denver was willing to give them, you have a situation where Denver was unwilling to spend more than a 2nd round pick to acquire a guy THEY felt was better than their current franchise QB. And clearly they thought Cutler would fetch a pretty penny in the trade market [and were right].

I see where you are coming from, but I still think the timing of the trades negates any comparison. What if DEN paid the 2nd round pick for Cassell, then tried to trade Cutler... do you still think they would have gotten 2 firsts? No, because as soon as they acquire Cassel, everyone knows they're getting rid of Cutler, and they'll get lowball offers only.

We don't need to speculate what kind of offers they'd have gotten if everyone knew they were getting rid of Cutler... because it happened. Everyone knew they were getting rid of Cutler when they traded him to the Bears.I know early on I was one who said the Broncos had shot themselves in the foot by hurting the trade value through their handling. But later on, before they said they would trade him, I thought more on it and decided they probably hadn't hurt his trade value too significantly. They were still going to get 10 teams inquiring about him. With that much demand to bid against each other, his value doesn't get hurt much.

 

[CalBear]

and in much the same way I'll take belichick's judgement over jetswillwin.

it's certainly possible that belichick made a mistake, or pioli got the better of the deal, but there IS such a thing as common sense, and frankly, I don't trust either of you guys to one up belichick on a football decision.

what do you think he should've gotten, who was giving it to him, and when?

Someone got the better of the deal. Time will tell if it's Pioli or Belichick. The fact that people on this message board aren't NFL coaches and GMs is completely irrelevant, so please stop condescending and wasting everyone's time. We're expressing opinions; we're on an NFL message board in April.

 

[-baller]

so please stop condescending and wasting everyone's time. We're expressing opinions; we're on an NFL message board in April.

so, you shouldn't be so averse to wasting time.

 

[Phlash]

Mike Ries from the Boston Globe covers the Pats.

Here is his take on this topic.

Ries's Pieces

They would have liked a Cutler-like package, no doubt. It wasn't there, because ...view of Cassel around the NFL. One statistic that other clubs looked at very closely was that 55 percent of the Patriots' passing offense in 2008 came after the catch, easily an NFL high. Teams like the Buccaneers, Lions and Bears looked at their own personnel, realized they didn't have the same structure in place (no Moss, Welker, Faulk), and had reservations about Cassel, whose body of work was limited to one year.

Bingo, and we have a winner. The real pros at player evaluation know that Cassel isn't really that good. His stats are overinflated by the system and personnel.

Please state the reasons why Cassel isn't good. Please discuss the player in question and not his former situation. TIA

 

[cstu]

I think the answer is mostly in the contract/cap hit. Cassel's getting paid ~fair market value for one year and he'll have to sign a new, fair market value contract next year. However, without looking at the numbers, I'd guess that Cutler's contract going forward will be a good bit below $14.6 MM per year and he's tied up for much longer.

I've heard this argued and I just don't see it.Cutler wanted a new deal in Denver and, while he's saying the right things now, barring a complete meltdown in Chicago this year he's going to want a new deal before the 2010 season. Remember, Cutler is slotted to make $1.45mm in 2010 with a $4mm roster bonus. His big remaining pay day comes in the form of a $12mm roster bonus after the 2010 season; and there's no way he's going to be happy with making $5.45mm in 2010 if he performs in 2009. No way.

So I think you have to logically believe that both franchise will need to give both QBs new market rate deals.

Wish in one hand, get traded to the Bears in the other.

 

[DrJ]

Mike Ries from the Boston Globe covers the Pats.

Here is his take on this topic.

Ries's Pieces

They would have liked a Cutler-like package, no doubt. It wasn't there, because ...view of Cassel around the NFL. One statistic that other clubs looked at very closely was that 55 percent of the Patriots' passing offense in 2008 came after the catch, easily an NFL high. Teams like the Buccaneers, Lions and Bears looked at their own personnel, realized they didn't have the same structure in place (no Moss, Welker, Faulk), and had reservations about Cassel, whose body of work was limited to one year.

Bingo, and we have a winner. The real pros at player evaluation know that Cassel isn't really that good. His stats are overinflated by the system and personnel.

Please state the reasons why Cassel isn't good. Please discuss the player in question and not his former situation. TIA

Because he couldn't beat out Leinart for a starting job, and he isn't good either.

 

[H.K.]

But come on... a 2nd is paltry compared to any realistic value of what Cutler would have gone for. Even giving him leeway, he wasn't willing to give up a 2nd for a player his actions suggest he had valued much higher than that.

These deals were different because the Pats move was cap driven and timing motivated. But I wanted to address something I've seen in this thread regarding the perception of two first rounders as getting a lot of value in return for Cutler...we don't know what the value of those picks will be at all. Not all teams covet first round picks equally (they eat up a lot of cap space) but high second round picks are considered gold. GM"s love second round picks, because they offer great value. There is often little difference in the talent level of the picks made in rounds one and two, but the pay scale for the 2nd makes it less risky if they miss and pay off bigger if they hit.

Should be interesting to see what those two first rounders cost Denver over the next few years....those picks can kill them if they pick the wrong guys.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Mike Ries from the Boston Globe covers the Pats.

Here is his take on this topic.

Ries's Pieces

They would have liked a Cutler-like package, no doubt. It wasn't there, because ...view of Cassel around the NFL. One statistic that other clubs looked at very closely was that 55 percent of the Patriots' passing offense in 2008 came after the catch, easily an NFL high. Teams like the Buccaneers, Lions and Bears looked at their own personnel, realized they didn't have the same structure in place (no Moss, Welker, Faulk), and had reservations about Cassel, whose body of work was limited to one year.

Bingo, and we have a winner. The real pros at player evaluation know that Cassel isn't really that good. His stats are overinflated by the system and personnel.

Please state the reasons why Cassel isn't good. Please discuss the player in question and not his former situation. TIA

so when discussing players we are supposed to ignore the situation and the players around them?

 

[Adebisi]

once again belichick >>> you

So? Pioli >>> you, Belichick >>> you. The question is whether Pioli >>> Belichick or not. Belichick has a history of success, that doesn't mean he never makes mistakes, and it doesn't mean he's the best personnel guy in the league--especially since the guy who was running personnel for Belichick is the guy who made this trade. What if Pioli was really the brains behind the Pats personnel moves, and he just made another shrewd move to extract value from his former employer?The point is, putting Belichick on an altar and shooting down any criticism of him is foolish. He makes mistakes, and the Cassel trade could easily end up being one of them.

Belichick and Pioli pretty much formed a two-man show as far as running personnel goes. Give "Patriot Reign" a read if you're interested to learn more about how that worked.As far as the Cassel trade being a mistake, I suppose it's possible, but it's extremely unlikely. Belichick has the best QB in the league coming back this year, and all signs have indicated that he'll be ready to return to form. Franchising Cassel was a way to get something for him aside from a compensatory pick next year. Once the tag was in place, it handcuffed the team (which was expected and planned for), so the shrewd move was to take those handcuffs off in time to be active in the free agent market. They basically got a high 2nd rather than whatever compensatory pick they might have gotten for him next year. A bigger mistake would have been holding onto him longer in order to get a higher pick (which is the best they could have gotten - no one was going to give the Pats multiple # 1's for Cassel like they did for Cutler) and subsequently missing out on Taylor, Springs, Bodden, etc. When you've got Brady, Moss, and the rest of the team that was in place as of the start of the offseason, you have to gear up every year to take a shot at the Super Bowl. Getting a high 2nd for Cassel and having some freedom in free agency is far better than getting a 1st for Cassel but missing out on the free agent market.In a way, strictly from New England's perspective, you can think of this as Cassel for a 2nd, plus Bodden, Taylor, Springs, etc., as opposed to the possibility of Cassel for a 1st.

 

[Adebisi]

and in much the same way I'll take belichick's judgement over jetswillwin.

it's certainly possible that belichick made a mistake, or pioli got the better of the deal, but there IS such a thing as common sense, and frankly, I don't trust either of you guys to one up belichick on a football decision.

what do you think he should've gotten, who was giving it to him, and when?

Someone got the better of the deal. Time will tell if it's Pioli or Belichick. The fact that people on this message board aren't NFL coaches and GMs is completely irrelevant, so please stop condescending and wasting everyone's time. We're expressing opinions; we're on an NFL message board in April.

Even if the Chiefs "get the better of the deal" by way of Cassel and Vrabel outperforming whoever the Patriots take with the 2nd round pick they got, that doesn't mean that the Patriots made a mistake or that it was a poor trade for them to have made (see my previous post for further explanation on this).

 

[SuperJohn96]

Not exactly sure what the question is, but if it's to do with the huge disparity in value between Cutler and Cassel I'd say the following:

1. Cutler > Cassel on the open market, let's just get that out of the way.

2. Cassel is due a big extension whereas you control Cutler for 3 years.

3. Belichick took less to get the deal done quickly.

Belichick himself has said on WEEI that he probably could've gotten more if he'd waited. The homer talking points around here about the whole thing have been rather frustrating.

Homer Pre-Trade Talking Points

Cassel is a quality, young, starting QB in this league, how often does a player like this become available for trade? There will be 5-6 teams bidding for Cassel, Patriots can use this trade to reload.

Homer Post-Trade Talking Points

The Patriots had to trade Cassel immediately otherwise they'd miss out on this stud TE and the 33 year old RB we really needed. If they had waited, they would risk missing out on these guys, and run the risk of being stuck with Cassel's $14 million salary figure!

It's been really frustrating. Just to be clear, I was saying the pre-trade talking points, but I haven't switched to the post-trade ones. I think Belichick screwed up, and if he could've gotten a 1st, or multiple 2nds for Cassel, and didn't because he was worried about missing out on Fred Taylor, then I think he made a mistake and should be criticized for it.

Yep...I think this is where my confusion is coming from. If New England really got as much as they could for Cassel, it really does speak to value being in the eye of the beholder. Because McDaniels was willing to replace Cutler with him, a guy that fetched a 2nd rounder. Fascinating.

IMO, you're looking at this wrong.McDaniels didn't necessarily just think Cassel > Cutler

I think maybe he thought Cassel + picks received for Cutler > Cutler + pick(s) given up for Cassel

 

[twistd]

Cassel went for what I thought he would go for. So did Cutler. I don't see any disconnect here.

My feeling is that KC and the Patriots had an agreement in place before free agency started. The Patriots had to get Cassell off the roster because his salary precluded them from doing anything. You don't pay a back up $14 million. But I believe that they could have gotten more for him. I think they had an agreement in place and honored the agreement, even when it became apparent that they had underestimated the value of Cassell. I believe, had they waited, they could have gotten a first for him. Whether he is worth that is debatable, but I think they could have gotten that. You very seldom see the Patriots making a serious mistake in personnel decisions, but I believe this was a mistake.

 

[Jason Wood]

Not exactly sure what the question is, but if it's to do with the huge disparity in value between Cutler and Cassel I'd say the following:

1. Cutler > Cassel on the open market, let's just get that out of the way.

2. Cassel is due a big extension whereas you control Cutler for 3 years.

3. Belichick took less to get the deal done quickly.

Belichick himself has said on WEEI that he probably could've gotten more if he'd waited. The homer talking points around here about the whole thing have been rather frustrating.

Homer Pre-Trade Talking Points

Cassel is a quality, young, starting QB in this league, how often does a player like this become available for trade? There will be 5-6 teams bidding for Cassel, Patriots can use this trade to reload.

Homer Post-Trade Talking Points

The Patriots had to trade Cassel immediately otherwise they'd miss out on this stud TE and the 33 year old RB we really needed. If they had waited, they would risk missing out on these guys, and run the risk of being stuck with Cassel's $14 million salary figure!

It's been really frustrating. Just to be clear, I was saying the pre-trade talking points, but I haven't switched to the post-trade ones. I think Belichick screwed up, and if he could've gotten a 1st, or multiple 2nds for Cassel, and didn't because he was worried about missing out on Fred Taylor, then I think he made a mistake and should be criticized for it.

Yep...I think this is where my confusion is coming from. If New England really got as much as they could for Cassel, it really does speak to value being in the eye of the beholder. Because McDaniels was willing to replace Cutler with him, a guy that fetched a 2nd rounder. Fascinating.

IMO, you're looking at this wrong.McDaniels didn't necessarily just think Cassel > Cutler

I think maybe he thought Cassel + picks received for Cutler > Cutler + pick(s) given up for Cassel

Great point. Because certainly had they acquired Cassel they would've quickly moved to trade Cutler. Well done.

 

[Banger]

Cassel went for what I thought he would go for. So did Cutler. I don't see any disconnect here.

My feeling is that KC and the Patriots had an agreement in place before free agency started. The Patriots had to get Cassell off the roster because his salary precluded them from doing anything. You don't pay a back up $14 million. But I believe that they could have gotten more for him. I think they had an agreement in place and honored the agreement, even when it became apparent that they had underestimated the value of Cassell. I believe, had they waited, they could have gotten a first for him. Whether he is worth that is debatable, but I think they could have gotten that. You very seldom see the Patriots making a serious mistake in personnel decisions, but I believe this was a mistake.

I really don't think it was a mistake at all. He's unproven (one good, not great, year in what was the best offense in the history of the NFL the year before) and teams have a right to be skeptical considering his surroundings, he's got a huge contract this year, he's unsigned beyond this year and there weren't a number of teams in the market. I never thought he'd be moved for a 1st but a 2nd is right in my mind. I wouldn't be shocked if he were decent and I wouldn't be shocked if he was terrible.

 

[twistd]

Cassel went for what I thought he would go for. So did Cutler. I don't see any disconnect here.

My feeling is that KC and the Patriots had an agreement in place before free agency started. The Patriots had to get Cassell off the roster because his salary precluded them from doing anything. You don't pay a back up $14 million. But I believe that they could have gotten more for him. I think they had an agreement in place and honored the agreement, even when it became apparent that they had underestimated the value of Cassell. I believe, had they waited, they could have gotten a first for him. Whether he is worth that is debatable, but I think they could have gotten that. You very seldom see the Patriots making a serious mistake in personnel decisions, but I believe this was a mistake.

I really don't think it was a mistake at all. He's unproven (one good, not great, year in what was the best offense in the history of the NFL the year before) and teams have a right to be skeptical considering his surroundings, he's got a huge contract this year, he's unsigned beyond this year and there weren't a number of teams in the market. I never thought he'd be moved for a 1st but a 2nd is right in my mind. I wouldn't be shocked if he were decent and I wouldn't be shocked if he was terrible.

I agree that he may be good and he may be bad. I am not sure if he is a product of the system and the personnel there. But after seeing the blog about this I have to say I am probably wrong about this. The Patriots shopped him, and didn't want to trade him to the Broncos. The KC second is a high two. They needed to move quick to have the cap money free, so this deal made sense for them. I still believe they may have been able to get more, but all the other considerations were more important than waiting to possibly get a slightly higher pick, even if they had been able to get it.

 

[GregR_2]

Not exactly sure what the question is, but if it's to do with the huge disparity in value between Cutler and Cassel I'd say the following:

1. Cutler > Cassel on the open market, let's just get that out of the way.

2. Cassel is due a big extension whereas you control Cutler for 3 years.

3. Belichick took less to get the deal done quickly.

Belichick himself has said on WEEI that he probably could've gotten more if he'd waited. The homer talking points around here about the whole thing have been rather frustrating.

Homer Pre-Trade Talking Points

Cassel is a quality, young, starting QB in this league, how often does a player like this become available for trade? There will be 5-6 teams bidding for Cassel, Patriots can use this trade to reload.

Homer Post-Trade Talking Points

The Patriots had to trade Cassel immediately otherwise they'd miss out on this stud TE and the 33 year old RB we really needed. If they had waited, they would risk missing out on these guys, and run the risk of being stuck with Cassel's $14 million salary figure!

It's been really frustrating. Just to be clear, I was saying the pre-trade talking points, but I haven't switched to the post-trade ones. I think Belichick screwed up, and if he could've gotten a 1st, or multiple 2nds for Cassel, and didn't because he was worried about missing out on Fred Taylor, then I think he made a mistake and should be criticized for it.

Yep...I think this is where my confusion is coming from. If New England really got as much as they could for Cassel, it really does speak to value being in the eye of the beholder. Because McDaniels was willing to replace Cutler with him, a guy that fetched a 2nd rounder. Fascinating.

IMO, you're looking at this wrong.McDaniels didn't necessarily just think Cassel > Cutler

I think maybe he thought Cassel + picks received for Cutler > Cutler + pick(s) given up for Cassel

Great point. Because certainly had they acquired Cassel they would've quickly moved to trade Cutler. Well done.

I think a coach, especially an OC, is going to want to go with the best QB he can go with. If he didn't think Cassel would do better than Cutler then I don't think he would have tried to acquire him in the first place. So I wouldn't say that McDaniels thinking Cassel > Cutler is the most logical inference to make in this situation. The picks might have been icing, but the bulk of the cake would have been the quality of the QBs in his system.

 

[goldfinger]

You're ignoring the salary factor. The Chiefs have to either pay Cassel $14M or negotiate a long-term deal with a lot of guaranteed money. The Bears on the other hand are getting a QB with 3 years left on his contract and while they may redo the deal soon they aren't forced to. Also, the Bears aren't on the hook for any guaranteed money and the $12M bonus isn't due until 2011.

From what I understand, If 2010 is an uncapped year, Cassel is a restricted free agent, because he won't have six years of service. If that's the case, Pioli will probably not extend him this year.

 

[Adebisi]

Cassel went for what I thought he would go for. So did Cutler. I don't see any disconnect here.

My feeling is that KC and the Patriots had an agreement in place before free agency started. The Patriots had to get Cassell off the roster because his salary precluded them from doing anything. You don't pay a back up $14 million. But I believe that they could have gotten more for him. I think they had an agreement in place and honored the agreement, even when it became apparent that they had underestimated the value of Cassell. I believe, had they waited, they could have gotten a first for him. Whether he is worth that is debatable, but I think they could have gotten that. You very seldom see the Patriots making a serious mistake in personnel decisions, but I believe this was a mistake.

Why would the Patriots have an agreement in place before exploring other options? If you are implying that they would have been stuck with Cassel had the deal with the Chiefs not been in place, I would have to strongly disagree. Worst case scenario would be dumping him off to someone for a late round draft pick just to clear his salary from the cap.

 

[Adebisi]

Not exactly sure what the question is, but if it's to do with the huge disparity in value between Cutler and Cassel I'd say the following:

1. Cutler > Cassel on the open market, let's just get that out of the way.

2. Cassel is due a big extension whereas you control Cutler for 3 years.

3. Belichick took less to get the deal done quickly.

Belichick himself has said on WEEI that he probably could've gotten more if he'd waited. The homer talking points around here about the whole thing have been rather frustrating.

Homer Pre-Trade Talking Points

Cassel is a quality, young, starting QB in this league, how often does a player like this become available for trade? There will be 5-6 teams bidding for Cassel, Patriots can use this trade to reload.

Homer Post-Trade Talking Points

The Patriots had to trade Cassel immediately otherwise they'd miss out on this stud TE and the 33 year old RB we really needed. If they had waited, they would risk missing out on these guys, and run the risk of being stuck with Cassel's $14 million salary figure!

It's been really frustrating. Just to be clear, I was saying the pre-trade talking points, but I haven't switched to the post-trade ones. I think Belichick screwed up, and if he could've gotten a 1st, or multiple 2nds for Cassel, and didn't because he was worried about missing out on Fred Taylor, then I think he made a mistake and should be criticized for it.

Yep...I think this is where my confusion is coming from. If New England really got as much as they could for Cassel, it really does speak to value being in the eye of the beholder. Because McDaniels was willing to replace Cutler with him, a guy that fetched a 2nd rounder. Fascinating.

IMO, you're looking at this wrong.McDaniels didn't necessarily just think Cassel > Cutler

I think maybe he thought Cassel + picks received for Cutler > Cutler + pick(s) given up for Cassel

Great point. Because certainly had they acquired Cassel they would've quickly moved to trade Cutler. Well done.

I don't see them making such a drastic change for the sake of a draft pick. If they thought Cutler was better than Cassel, they wouldn't downgrade at QB for the sake of landing an additional 1st round pick. I think that's the fantasy football player in you talking here.

 

[Adebisi]

The Patriots shopped him, and didn't want to trade him to the Broncos.

Why wouldn't the Patriots want to trade him to the Broncos? Because he already knows McDaniels's offense? I'm not sure I'm buying that.