Boston
Footballguy
Welker's two best yardage years and two of his three best reception years were without Moss:
2011 122-1569-9
2012 118-1354-6
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D Adams to Vegas !! (1 Viewer)
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Welker's two best yardage years and two of his three best reception years were without Moss:
2011 122-1569-9
2012 118-1354-6
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Didn’t know any of this before the trade but both Carr & Adams went to Fresno State in CA, just a few hours outside the San Francisco Bay / Oakland area. They put up video game numbers in the Mountain West playing together. Adams also grew up in the San Francisco Bay / Oakland area as well.
Adams was quoted a year ago saying it would be a “dream” to play with Carr again, so looks like his dream came true. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/packers-star-davante-adams-seems-to-be-eyeing-the-raiders-in-hopes-of-dream-union-with-derek-carr/
Adams was quoted a year ago saying it would be a “dream” to play with Carr again, so looks like his dream came true. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/packers-star-davante-adams-seems-to-be-eyeing-the-raiders-in-hopes-of-dream-union-with-derek-carr/
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I just meant expectations-wise.
A rookie WR isn’t likely to give anyone Davante Adams replacement numbers.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think it was also mentioned that he bought a house literally next to Carr‘s. All pretty obvious in hindsight
This tweet has really been making me think and go back and look at some numbers and it's been a little eye opening that might be time to exit out of WR's sooner then we used to.
@MoveTheSticks
How many WR's over the age of 30 finished in top 30 in rec yards last year? 0 (AJ Green was 32nd with 848 yards)
So after looking at that tweet I looked back at 2020 and similar. Marvin Jones at 978 yards led WR's 30 or older.
In 2019 Julio who was right at 30 and Edelman who was 33 passed 1,000.
So to recap no WR aged 30 or over has hit 1,000 yards in two seasons.
The only WR over the age of 30 to hit over 1,000 in 3 seasons is Edelman.
@MoveTheSticks
How many WR's over the age of 30 finished in top 30 in rec yards last year? 0 (AJ Green was 32nd with 848 yards)
So after looking at that tweet I looked back at 2020 and similar. Marvin Jones at 978 yards led WR's 30 or older.
In 2019 Julio who was right at 30 and Edelman who was 33 passed 1,000.
So to recap no WR aged 30 or over has hit 1,000 yards in two seasons.
The only WR over the age of 30 to hit over 1,000 in 3 seasons is Edelman.
So far this is the most fascinating move. He and Rodgers talked a lot so...what was said? They're buddies so...different page? Do what's best for you? What? I wish we knew.
Davante gets smothered like no one else maybe no one I've seen since Calvin. There is nowhere to throw but Rodgers puts it near him in just the right spot where he's just gonna win with concentration, focus, and determination. If he catches 100 then 30 are like this.
I have no doubt he could go anywhere and still get the 70 catches on speed and technique. I've been expecting a sizable drop for him during any Rodgers isn't returning talk. He's still awesome just who will throw those balls?
His college QB would, that's who. This just blows me away. Carr is very good while Rodgers is great...I can see that argument but Carr's day to day just got a ton easier.
As far as Waller- he takes a big hit in catches but probably an increase in yards. Carr deserves a lot of credit for completing an absolute ton of passes after a play is broken down. Ya watch them and it's way too often that Carr has to do that. No doubt Waller is a gem for coming back and getting those but he shouldn't have to much anymore. He shouldn't have six catches for 30 yards and should be far more normal stat wise
Davante gets smothered like no one else maybe no one I've seen since Calvin. There is nowhere to throw but Rodgers puts it near him in just the right spot where he's just gonna win with concentration, focus, and determination. If he catches 100 then 30 are like this.
I have no doubt he could go anywhere and still get the 70 catches on speed and technique. I've been expecting a sizable drop for him during any Rodgers isn't returning talk. He's still awesome just who will throw those balls?
His college QB would, that's who. This just blows me away. Carr is very good while Rodgers is great...I can see that argument but Carr's day to day just got a ton easier.
As far as Waller- he takes a big hit in catches but probably an increase in yards. Carr deserves a lot of credit for completing an absolute ton of passes after a play is broken down. Ya watch them and it's way too often that Carr has to do that. No doubt Waller is a gem for coming back and getting those but he shouldn't have to much anymore. He shouldn't have six catches for 30 yards and should be far more normal stat wise
LawFitz
Footballguy
Sample size is way to small to conclude anything about WR age-related decline here. But still, a good angle to consider more broadly. Makes me wonder how the data stacks historically, going much further back. I mean, Jerry Rice was putting up probowl stats nearing 40, but he may have been a total outlier in terms of longevity.
A WR in New Orleans wants your attention.Two? Surgeries and barely played
For dynasty, long ago I learned to only stick with tacticians. Rice Welker Fitz Edelman.
Usually for FF they're bye subs and a reliable 6 for 60 is just fine when the rest of your roster is boom or bust young WRs
wlwiles
Footballguy
Rodgers is notoriously untrusting of rookies too. All it would take is for GB to use the 1st on a Burks/Wilson type and have them start slow with some Chase-like drops in camp and he'd start the year off in Rodgers doghouse.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep. Between the already decent chance that a WR struggles in year 1, Rodgers notorious impatience with rookies and the whole “replacing the best WR in the NFL”, I could see it going south in a hurry.
IMO GB is better off spending some of the $ they saved on Adams on Julio, JuJu, Fuller and whatever other FA talent is out there.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And Carr <<< ARod.
i like Carr. He should be better with Adams. But he can’t throw with the pinpoint accuracy that ARod did.
That said, Adams has been reliably healthy, save for the turf toe season (of course, the season i took him 1.09 in redraft) and he was Studley last year.
I don’t really see him as a bust candidate this year, but I believe his numbers will be down from GB.
The next few years should be interesting though. And it’s an absolutely brutal division.
3nOut
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I am aware of that. that doesn’t counter anything I said in the post yoj quoted.
The college level defense isn’t quite as good as the NFL, and ARod is a better QB than Carr.
Playing together in college is a nice bit of nostalgia & a feel-good part of this story. Whether it helps their on-field play 9 years later is presently unknown.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Suffice to say, GB has a shorter window of potential success than when Adams was a rookie.
It is interesting that most initial analysis has Adams staying in the mid to high WR range. The above only reinforces my opinion that Adams is more likely a WR 2 at this point. Consider:
1. Carr is not as good as Rodgers, nor is he nearly as aggressive in throwing downfield into contested situations.
2. McDaniels was Brady's OC for years- the Patriots threw to the open guy. I'm not saying they didn't try to ensure that top guys got their targets, instead I'm saying the QB prioritized the structure of the play and delivered the ball based upon progression. Thus Adams will not be force fed to the extent he was in GB.
3. Waller and Renfro are clearly better and more deserving of targets than a aged Cobb, inconsistent MVS, and JAG Lazard. Expect a drop in targets for Adams.
4. The overall level of competition in the division just went up exponentially. No more Lions, Bears, and Vikings to pick on- trade that for Broncos, Chiefs, and Chargers- an understated, but important consideration.
The guys I like more, without question for 2022:
Chase, Jefferson, Hill, Cupp, Diggs, Brown, Lamb, and Evans
I'm 50/50 between Adams and:
Samuel, Hopkins, and Waddle
I lean more toward Adams, but could consider above with more information:
DJ Moore and Metcalf (Who will be their QB?)
In summation, I see Adams as the overall WR 9- 13, which is back end WR1 to high end WR2.
We're a ways off, but man, I wouldn't even think twice about taking Adams over Lamb. Lamb just strikes me as a very overvalued player in general. I wouldn't hesitate to take him over Hopkins, Waddle, Moore, or Metcalf either.
Adams will have a smaller target share for sure, but he'll also have less double coverage as well, and its possible/likely the Raiders pass a lot more than GB did, due to a much tougher division. Rodgers has been outside the top-10 in pass attempts each of the last 2 seasons, and in 2021 Carr had almost 100 more attempts than Rodgers did.
It wouldn't surprise me if Adams outproduced all of these guys, but yeah, I'm not going to bet on it. That said, you don't trade a 1 and a 2, and make a guy the highest paid player in the NFL at his position, if you aren't going to make him the centerpiece of the offense. I feel like WR9, is probably his absolute floor.
These 4 and Adams would make up my top 5 WR's for the 2022 season but I do anticipate Adams numbers worsening.
He's basically been around 10.8 targets a game the last 4 seasons, that's a hard pace to keep the quality of the passer is down.
But always some element of caution when a WR goes to a new team especially when entering an age we are seeing studs stop being studs. I'm probably putting him 5th right now for next season.
Last thing I'll say is I never bought the talk last few years that Adams was unquestionably the best WR in the league. A lot of WR's could produce massive numbers getting that target share from Rodgers. I'll concede he could be the best, belongs in conversation, but it's not unquestionable to me and never has been.
wlwiles
Footballguy
Very true, and it took Adams until Year 3 to sniff 1000 yards. 3 years from now Rodgers may be retired and the Packers are drafting at the top of the first searching for their next QB (bc we all know it ain't Love). If Burks or London or whoever go to GB and replicate Adams' rookie year of 36/446/3, the majority will be screaming bust just because the fantasy world is impatient now thanks to JJeff and Chase having the rookie years they did.
wlwiles
Footballguy
I'd say 5th is probably right, maaaaaaybe WR6 if you think AJB is better but 5/6 feels right to me.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Since 2010, there have been 16 WR seasons of 1,200+ receiving yards in a season by a player 30+ years old. The three best were Andre Johnson (31) 1,598; Wes Welker (30) 1,569; and Brandon Marshall (31) 1,502. Adams is still young enough where he still should be productive for a few more years.
What people should be going crazy over is the AAV of his contract at $28.25M (with $67.5M guaranteed). That's more than most QBs. For that amount of money, Adams will have to perform better than Kupp did last year every season of his contract to stand a chance of earning any value on his pay.
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jurrassic
Footballguy
This is where I sit too. From a fantasy perspective, Adams numbers are going to decline. GB was incredibly efficient in the red zone and Adams had a crazy high percentage of the offense run through him. GB was also in a much easier division, and Rodgers is a vastly superior qb.Anarchy99 said:
For the Raiders this locks them into having to extend, and probably overpay Carr. Assume it will be something in the neighborhood of $40M a year. That contract is just an insane amount of money for a wr.
But now he gets to play in shoot outs vs. KC/SD/DEN not to mention catching Burrow, Allen, Watson, and LJax more often. Vegas totals in his games are moving up.
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